2012 Early Surprise – The Nationals

“First in war, first in peace, last in the American League”used to describe the American League cellar-dwelling Washington Senators.  In 2012,Washington D.C.’s team is no longer the Senators, no longer in the American League and no longer in last place.

Stephen Strasburg leads the much-improved - league leading - Nationals' pitching staff.

The early 2012 surprises (emphasis on “early,” too small a sample to make any real projections) are the first-place Nationals (7-2) and Dodgers (8-1) and, to a lesser extent, the last-place Angels and Red Sox (each at 3-5).

Let’s look at the Nationals. (Note:  In BBRT’s 2012 NL projections, we predicted a .500+ season and a stake in the Wild Card race for the Nats.)   The Nationals are doing it with pitching.  Through April 15, the Nationals have the NL’s lowest earned run average at 1.82, and have held opposing batters to a .170 average while striking out 88 in 84 innings pitched.  The starting staff, led by Stephen Strasburg, Geo Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmerman and Edwin Jackson has led the charge to the top of the standings.  Even fifth starter Ross Detwiler tossed 5 innings with only two hits, no runs, 1 walk and 6 Ks in his start.

Ultimately, it looks like Washington will be in the race to stay – and may even surprise some people in the playoffs.

Timing Can Be Everything

Timing can be everything, just ask Minnesota Twins’ reliever Jeff Gray.  On April 11th, Gray came in and threw one pitch (inducing a groundout by the Angels Peter Bourjos) to end the seventh inning with the Twins trailing the Angels 5-3.  The Twins scored 3 in the bottom of the inning to take the lead, and held on to give Gray a one batter-one pitch victory.  The very next day, Gray came in with two outs in the eighth and the Twins again trailing the Angels (7-6).  This time, he took two pitches to get Howie Kendrick to ground into an inning-ending fielder’s choice.  The Twins came back with four runs in the bottom of the inning and eventually won 10-9, giving Gray a one batter-two pitch victory.  Two days, two batters, three pitches – and two major league wins.  Now that’s timing.

Gray still has a long way to go to match Pirates reliever Elroy Face when it comes to timing, however.  In 1958, Face set the record for winning percentage for a hurler with at least 15 decisions (.947) going 18-1, with 20 saves, all in relief.  Face didn’t lost his first game until September 11, when he was 17-0 on the season.   For the year, Face appeared in 57 games, throwing 93 innings

3 Games In – 3 Games Out. Ouch!

"21" was not lucky for the Baltimore Orioles

After the first weekend of the 2012 MLB season, five teams stand at 0-3:  Yankees; Giants; Red Sox; Braves; and Twins (listed in order of BBRT surprise at the slow starts).  All five are the maximum 3 games behind the leaders.

Still, they all have a long way to go to match the 1988 Baltimore Orioles for the worst start in baseball history.  That year the Orioles lost their first 21 games, capturing their initial win of the season (9-0 over the White Sox) on April 29.  The O’s gave indications something momentous could be on the horizon, being outscored 30-2 over their first four games.  They went on to be outscored 129-44 in their record- setting, season-opening losing streak.  The streak included only 4 one-run losses (three in a row April 14-16, losses 9-11).  Eight of the 21 losses were at home, sparing the Baltimore fans, particularly since losses 13-21 were on the road.  The O’s finished the year 54-107, 34 ½ games off the pace.

Back to 2012, our five winless teams, as might be expected, are finding lots of different ways to drop games.  Consider Sunday’s losses, the third for each team.

Baltimore’s Jason Hammel took a no-hitter into the eighth inning, as the Orioles topped the Twins 3-1.

Boston blew a 10-7 ninth-inning lead, before losing to Detroit 13-12 in eleven innings.

San Francisco led 6-0 after three innings, but lost 7-6 to Arizona in a game that featured 8 errors, but no unearned runs.

Jeremy Hellickson came within one out of a complete game shutout as the Rays beat the Yankees 3-0 in an errorless game.

The Braves lost in a more traditional/predictable manner, trailing the Mets 7-0 after six innings (but coming back to make the final score 7-5).

Dunn Ties Opening Day Mark – In Some Powerful Company

Adam Dunn of the White Sox tied the major league record for career  Opening Day home runs (eight) as Chicago lost to Texas on April 6.  Dunn moved into some powerful company, as he now shares the record with Hall of Farmer Frank Robinson and future Hall of Famer Ken Griffey, Jr.   Dunn seemed an unlikely record setter, coming off a 2011 season in which he hit .159 with 11 homers and struck out in more than 40% of his at bats  (177 strikeouts in 415 at bats in 122 games). 

Dunn’s fast start follows a strong spring, in which his off season regimen seemed to pay off – and which may see the imposing (6’6”, 275) slugger begin to pay dividends on his four-year, $56 million contract with the Chisox.  There is good reason to believe in the comeback, as Dunn entered the 2012 season with 365 career roundtrippers and five seasons of forty or more home runs.

So, Dunn is clearly not the most unlikely Opening Day record-setting slugger.  That honor goes to Karl “Tuffy” Rhodes, who shares the single game HR record for Opening Day with three dingers for the Cubs on day-one in 1994. Rhodes hit 13 home runs in his  six-year career and he hit a season high of 8 HRs in 1994.

Looking deeper into Dunn’s record, he has gone deep in six Opening Day games – and shares the record (at two) for multiple home run openers.  Robinson and Griffey each homered in eight openers to earn their share of the record.

Let’s look at some of the Opening Day record holders.

 

Three HRs in one opener:

George Bell, Toronto Blue Jays, 1988 … Career HRs – 265; Single season high – 47 HRs (24 in 1988).

 Karl Rhodes, Chicago Cubs, 1994 … Career HRs – 13; Single season high – 8 HRs (8 in 1994).

 Dmitri Young, Detroit Tigers, 2005 … Career HRs – 171; Single season high – 29 (21 in 2005).

 

Multiple Home Runs (2 HRs in each instance) in a season opener more than once:

Eddie Mathews, Milwaukee Braves, 1954, 1958 … Career HRs – 512; Season high – 47.

 Joe Torre, Milwaukee Braves, 1965; Atlanta Braves, 1966 … Career HRs – 252; Season high – 36.

 Juan Gonzalez, Texas Rangers, 1993; Cleveland Indians, 2001 … Career HRs – 434; Season high – 46.

Raul Mondesi, LA Dodgers, 1995, 1999 … Career HRs – 271; Season high – 33.

Adam Dunn, Cincinnatti Reds, 2005, 2007 … Career HRs – 364 (entering 2012 season); Season high – 46.

 Xavier Nady, San Diego Padres, 2005; Pittsburgh Pirates, 2008 … Career HR – 97 (entering 2012 season); Season high – 25.

Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals, 2006, 2010 … Career HRs – 445 (entering 2012 season); Season high – 47.

BBRT Rant: Second Opener Kinda Like the First

One game Cardinals – Marlins Series!  WTH (What the heck?)

In BBRT’s March 30th post, I ranted about how officially opening the MLB season in Japan, only to have the teams (A’s / Mariners) come home and restart thier spring training schedule made no sense.   Yesterday, MLB opened its truly “home” season, with a one-game series between the Cardinals and new-look Marlins.  Yes, the Marlins have a new ballpark to show off, but why not a three-game series?  Maybe this is what they mean by “Moneyball.”

Jamie Moyer No. 2 Starter for Rockies – BBRT Celebrates

Jaime Moyer, at age 49, has earned the number-two slot in the Colorado Rockies’ starting   rotation.  BBRT sees this as a cause for celebration for all AARP-sters.  (See BBRT post of March 27 under Rants and Raves or News for more info on Moyer, his stuff and his career.)

Think about it!  On July 16, 1986, Moyer made his debut and earned his first ML victory, as Moyer’s Cubs beat the Steve Carlton and the Phillies 7-5 in Chicago.  Yes, that’s the same Steve Carlton who has been in the Baseball Hall of Fame for 18 years.  Moyer’s line:  6.1 innings pitched, 8 hits, 4 earned runs, 3 walks and 2 Ks.  Oh, and in 1986, gas was 93 cents a gallon and the Mets were baseball’s World Champions.

Moyer, who went 2-0 with a 2.77 era in four spring training appearances, is slated to start April 7 against the Astros (with one more spring tune-up).  If he wins, he’ll become the oldest pitcher to earn a ML victory.  BBRT is hoping he breaks the record many times over in 2012.

Thank you, Jamie Moyer – for bringing your heart to the game.

On March 22, Jamie Moyer, competing for a spot in the Rockies’ rotation, tossed four
perfect innings (with four strikeouts) against the San Francisco Giants.  No biggie, right?  What’s four perfect innings in one meaningless spring game?

Well, this one had considerable significance.  Moyer, 49, pitched his first game in the big leagues on June 16, 1986.  He sat out last season recovering from Tommy John surgery, did some work with ESPN, and then decided he had to give it one more try (at his age, you probably wouldn’t say “good ol’ college try”).

After the March 22 game, he had tossed 9 innings against major league teams this spring, with four hits, one run, no walks and seven strikeouts – using pinpoint control, a fast ball that doesn’t reach 80 mph and an assortment of off speed pitches to baffle hitters.

Will he win a spot in the rotation, competing with 20-somethings who benefit from Moyer’s pitching Ph.D. every time he takes the mound?  The jury’s still out as BBRT posts, but it’s looking good.  No matter what the outcome, the entire Rockies’ staff is learning a lot about changing speeds, changing locations and getting hitters off balance.

They are also learning a lot about heart and the satisfaction of doing something you love.

BBRT thanks Jamie Moyer for that lesson.  Jamie Moyer’s comeback should teach us all about the importance of following our passion, maintaining a positive attitude and never being afraid to try.  Officially, Jamie Moyer has left the mound a winner 267 times.  In reality, he’s a winner everyday – on and off the mound.

And, by the way, should he earn a roster spot and notch a victory, Moyer would become the oldest pitcher to ever win a major league game.  He also will add to a remarkable career. He has 24 major league seasons under his belt, 267 wins, two 20-win seasons,  more than 4,000 innings pitched, has been to the postseason four times (1997, 2001, 2007, 2008) and, heck, he’s even got 49 base hits. Wouldn’t it be great if number 50 was Moyer’s first home run – it is Colorado after all.

All of this from a pitcher who says his fastball was always below average.  Jamie Moyer has always pitched with his head – and his heart.  BBRT salutes his accomplishments, applauds his spirit and anticipates his first official 2012 start.

Big Spring – What’s it mean?

Spring training stats are often misleading, but there are a few notables that have caught BBRT’s eye this spring.  Could this be a harbinger of potential realized?  We’ll be watching these spring “stars” with interest once the season opens.  (Spring stats as of March 26)

 

Lorenzo Cain, Royals, OF

This 25-year-old is tearing it up this spring, .447, 4 homers, 8 RBI, 2 SBs in 47 at bats.  After hitting .312 with 16 HRs at AAA last year and .302 in 49 game in two call ups (Milwaukee in 2010 and KC in 2011), Cain looks ready to light a fire in Kansas City.

Brandon Belt, Giants, OF-1B

At 23 going into the season, Belt still needs to show more control at the plate (.225 in his call up to the Giants last year), but he has shown some power (9 homers in 187 ML at bats in 2011).  This spring, .380 with 3 HRs in 50 at bats.  He may be a year or two away from making an impact, but he’s worth a watch.

Zack Cozart, Reds, SS

At 26, he appears to be ready.  Hit .310 at Louisville last year, .324 in an 11-game ML call up.  Hitting .452 in 42 at bats this spring.  Only drawback, not much of a power stroke (although he did hit 17 HRs at Louisville in 2010.  BBRT is looking for a solid BA (.285 range) with a handful of HRs (8-12) and 15 SBs.

Delmon Young, Tigers, OF

People have been waiting for years for Young to tap his potential (and he’s only 26).  He seemed to find himself after his trade to Detroit late last season and the hot streak has carried into spring (.413 – 5 HRs – 19 RBI in 46 at bats.)  If this isn’t the breakout year, it’s time to quit waiting and watching.

Dee Gordon, Dodgers, SS

BBRTs favorite future star.  Not much power, but a nice bat and great speed.  This 23-year-old  hit .333 with 30 SBs in 70 games at AAA last year, then .304 with 24 SBs in 56 games with the Dodgers.  He’s here to stay – and the race is on.   Should be a joy to watch.

Adam Wainwright, Cardinals, SP

Thirty-year-old veteran looks to be back from elbow surgery, didn’t give up an earned run in his first 14 spring innings.  Cardinals are looking for the pitcher who went 39-19 (463 innings pitched) in 2009-10 before sitting out 2011.  May not top 200 innings, but looks to rejoin the NL “aces” club – and with the questions surrounding Carpenter’s health, the Cards need him.

Francisco Liriano, Twins, SP

Up and down – on the corner, off the plate – intense, distracted.  Francisco Liriano is a mystery.  But he is only 28, in a “contract year,” and has shown occasional signs of brilliance.  BBRT is watching – and hoping the mystery is solved this year.  Hope truly “springs” eternal, with Liriano working to a 2-0 record, 2.00 ERA and 23 Ks versus just three walks in his first 18 spring innings.

Vance Worley, Phillies, SP

Lost behind Lee, Halladay and Hamels, a number of observers called the 24-year-old Worley’s 11-3 (3.01) in 2011 less than convincing.  They wanted more proof and indications are they may very well get it.  This spring Worley has rung up 18 Ks and only 2 BBs in just over 16 innings, with a 2.81 ERA.  With the Howard and Utley’s health issues, pitching must carry the Phillies. It looks to BBRT like Worley will more than carry his share of the load.

Difference makers? It could happen.

Pujols, Cano, Verlander, Tulo …  Easy to predict all of these will be impact players.  BBRT wants to look a little deeper at players we think may make a bigger difference than you might expect in 2012.

Matt Moore – SP –  Tampa Bay… This Strasberg-like phenom will help keepTampa in striking distance.  Potential Rookie of the Year could rack up 12-15 wins and 200 ks.

Mat Latos – SP – Cinc. … Strong second half of 2011 (after starting season on the DL) showed this potential ace is fully healthy.  Should benefit from the Reds offense after going 9-14 with the anemic Padres.  15-10 not too optimistic.  Key to Red’s ability to chase down Pujol-less Cardinals.

Daniel Hudson – SP – Arizona … Good bet to win 16 games, toss 200 innings and strikeout 200 for the D-backs, and they’ll need it to hold off SF.

Madison Bumgarner – SP – SF … Lincecom and Cain get most of the publicity, but this 22-year-old seems on the verge of a great season.  191 Ks versus 46 BBs last year.

Francisco Liriano – SP –Minn. … Looked strong in spring.  If he goes back to form of 2010, could help the Twins return to respectability.

Matt Garza –  SP –  Chicago (N) … 10-10 record in 2011 may put him under the radar, but Garza still has plenty left.   Keep in mind, he went 6-2 (2.45 ) in the second half of 2011 and, for the season,  he struck out 197 in 198 innings.  If Cubs are going nowhere, Garza may go somewhere (to a contender).

Julio Teheran , Shelby Miller, Drew Pomeranz – SPs – Atlanta, St. Louis, Colorado … Youngsters with great stuff sure to get to the “show” sometime in 2012, if they don’t start the season there.  Once up, they will make a difference.

Glen Perkins – RP –  Minnesota … Hard thrower stabilizes Twins’ end-game, and if Matt Capps falters, Perkins could slide into the closer role (which it is unlikely he will ever relinquish).

Nick Hundley, Jesus Montero – Cs – San Diego, Seattle … Two young “catchers of the future,” unfortunately playing where the opportunity to make a difference will be minimal – but look for strong seasons from both.

Eric Hosmer –1B – KC ….  Will build on his .293-19-78 of 2011.  Important power source for Royals.  And, hes only 22.

Ryan Rayburn – 2B –  Detroit … Showed nice pop for a middle infielder (14 HR in 121 games) last year.  Plus he can play all over the field.  Will find plenty of ABs as the Tigers defend the Central.

Dee Gordon – SS – LA (N) … Spray hitter with little power, but brings great speed.  Hit .304 with 24 stolen bases in 56 games with the Dodgers last year.  Will lead off and have an impact.   Could lead Kemp to the MVP.

Bryce Harper – OF –  Washington … Enough written already, look for him in the Nats’ lineup by June and to lead a surge to a .500 season.

Micheal Cuddyer –OF –  Colorado.  Steady power hitter will benefit from move away for Target Field to Colorado’s power-friendly air.  .280-30-100 a possibility.   Needs to perform and lead in the clubhouse if Colorado is to contend.

As the season unfolds, there will be plenty of surprises and these are just a handful of players BBRT thinks will make a bigger difference than you might expect

Rave – Goodbye Chipper

More smilin’ than stylin’

When Braves’ Chipper Jones announced his retirement after the 2012 season, baseball began saying goodbye to a great player – a fan favorite (unless you’re a Mets fan), who truly did “more smilin’ than stylin”.  Eighteen years with one team
 (and counting); 454 home runs; 1,500+ RBIs and runs scored; an MVP award; and the list goes on.  The only switch hitter to achieve a .300 career average and 300 roundtrippers, Chipper should walk into the Hall of Fame on his first ballot.

Humble to the end, even in announcing his retirement he sang the praises of others who played out their careers with one team – specifically Cal Ripken, Jr. and Tony Gwynn.  In Chipper’s words, “While I don’t consider myself in their realm, I’m awfully proud to say I’ve been a part of this organization for so long.”

Well, Chipper, you did things so right for so long, but on this one you’re wrong.  You are in the Ripken/Gwynn realm and BBRT looks forward to your induction into baseball’s ultimate “realm” – Cooperstown.