Baseball Roundtable Preview Week – Day Five – American League Central

PrfeiewBBRT’s 2019 Preview Week continues with our Day Five look at the American League Central.  Things, I will again caution continue to change – and, of course,  there are still some “difference makers” out there on the free-agent market (like Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel).   Once we’ve gone through the divisions, BBRT will wrap up (on Day Seven) with predictions for the major awards (ROY, CYA, MVP).   Note:  After the general comments, each team is reviewed in more detail.  Keep in mind, these are just BBRT’s opinions and conjecture – not the result of any inside insight or info.

For the  NL East Preview, click here.

For the NL Central, click here. 

For the NL West, click here.

For the AL East, click here.

For the AL West, click here.

For the major awards, click here.

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AMERICAN LEAGUE  CENTRAL

Indians

Twins (Wild Card)

White Sox

Tigers

Royals

The Indians – who, in 2018, became the first MLB team with four 200 strikeout pitchers in a season – should ride a rotation of Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, Carlos Carrasco, Mike Clevinger and Shane Bieber to the division title.  They also should have enough power in the lineup (Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Carlos Santana) to hold off the Twins – but it will be a tougher go this time (there are some holes in the Cleveland lineup.  The Twins added 88 home runs to their lineup (Nelson Cruz, C.J. Cron and Jonathan Schoop), are enjoying a revitalized Byron Buxton and have an improving  rotation (Jose Berrios, Kyle gibbon and Michael Pineda).  Questions in the bullpen and the dominance of Cleveland’s starting staff may restrict the Twins to a Wild Card spot.  (I see competition for the Wild Card coming primarily form Oakland.) Chicago has some good young bats and arms and a new closer Alex Colome; but it’s along way back from 100 losses.  Still, they seem to be moving in the right direction. The Tigers and Royals finished 13th and 14th in runs scored in the AL lasts season (only the Orioles score fewer) and did not do enough to improve.

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INDIANS – First Place

Corey Kluber photo

Corey Kluber, will lead a dominant rotation.  Photo by apardavila

Okay, in the name of transparency, I must admit I have a strong preference for good pitching and love 2-1 and 3-2 ball games.  With that in mind, picking the Indians to win the AL Central was easy.  They have, arguably, the best starting rotation in the American League. (Only the Astros could argue.)

In 2018, Indians starters put up a 3.39 earned run average – second in the AL only to the Astros 3.16. They also pitched the most innings of any AL starting staff (993 2/3), threw the most complete games (5) and fanned the second-most batters (1,066 to the Astros’ 1,101).

Let’s look at the rotation. It starts with Corey Kluber (20-7, 2.89, with 222 whiffs in 215 innings).  The two-time Cy Young Award winner is like money in the bank. He has been an All Star in each of the past three seasons, going a cumulative 56-20, 2.77 and pitching 633 2/3 innings.  Next up is a toss-up between Carlos Carrasco (17-10, 3.38, with 231 strikeouts in 192 innings) and Trevor Bauer (12-6, 2.21, with 221 strikeouts in 175 1/3 frames). Carrasco and Bauer have both gone 35-16 over the past two seasons. Mike Clevinger really makes the Indians’ Big Three a Big Four. He was 13-8, 3.02 last season – and fanned 207 batters in 200 innings.  Finally, there is Shane Bieber.  Just 24-years-old, Bieber went 11-5, 4.55 and fanned 118 batters in 114 2/3 innings – as a rookie.

In 2018, the Indians became the first MLB team to boast four 200-strikeout pitchers in the same season.

While the rotation seems set, the bullpen “not so much.” Gone, through free agency, are two key contributors: former closer Cody Allen (27 saves for the Indians in 2018) and elite set-up man Andrew Miller.  That does not mean the cupboard is bare.  Brad Hand – acquired in a trade with the Padres last July – saved 32 games last season.  After coming over to the Indians, he went 0-1, 2.28 with eight saves in 28 appearances. Submariner Adam Cimber came over in the same trade and had a 3.42 ERA in 70 appearances for the Padres and Indians. Other bullpen pieces include: Tyler Olson (4.94 in 43 appearances: Dan Otero (5.22 in 51 appearances); and Neil Ramirez (4.54 in 47 appearances); and Oliver Perez (1.39 in 51 appearances). Closer appears to be in good Hands (pun intended), but the overall pen is more serviceable than exceptional.

Now to the lineup.  It has power in the infield, but there are a more than a few weak points offensively.  Let’s start with power points.  The Indians will rely heavily on SS Francisco Lindor (.277-38-92, with 25 stolen bases – working his way back from a calf injury) and 3B Jose Ramirez (.270-39-105, with 34 steals). Both are capable of MVP-level performance. 2B Jason Kipnis hit .230-18-75, but the two-time All Star has shown some decline offensively. The Indians brought back Carlos Santana for 2019 (part of a three team trade – Indians/Mariners/Rays) to DH and possibly platoon at 1B.  Santana hit .229-24-86 for the Phillies last season.  He was with the Indians from 2010-17 and put up five seasons of 20 or more home runs and seven seasons of 74 or more RBI.  Newcomer Jake Bauer (who came over in the same trade as Santana) could also see some time at the one bag. He was .201-11-48 in 96 games.

Things start to get a bit thin after this. The outfield seems up for grabs with garden duties perhaps shared by some combination of Tyler Naquin (.264-3-23 in 61 games); Leonys Martin (.255-11-33 in 91 games for the Tigers and Indians); recently signed Carlos Gonzalez (.276-16-64 in 132 games for the Rockies); and Greg Allen (.257-2-20, with 21 steals in 91 games.)  Jake Bauer could also play some outfield – particularly if free-agent signee Hanley Ramirez (.254-6-29 for the Red Sox) takes a lot of DH at bats.  Ramirez, however, is 35-years-old and was released by the Red Sox last May. Still, he hit 23 home runs in 2017 – and the Indians are looking to add to the offense.

At catcher, Yan Gomes (a 2018 All Star) is gone (trade, Nationals). The leading candidates to replace Gomes are Roberto Perez, Eric Haase and Kevin Plawecki (trade, Mets).  In 2018, these three backstops hit a combined .189-9-50 in 433 at bats.  Pawlecki may offer the best upside. He was .210-7-30 in 79 games for the Mets.

Things will be tighter in the Central Division this year, but the Indians should have the pitching to hold off the Twins.

KEY OFF-SEASON MOVE

Bringing back Carlos Santana (DH/1B). He brings some pop (24 home runs for the Phillies 2018) to a lineup that will need it – and he should be comfortable in Cleveland (where he played from 2010-17 and had five season of 20 or more long balls).

PLAYER TO WATCH

In 2018, Trevor Bauer went 12-6, 2.21 and fanned 221 batters, despite losing five weeks to a leg injury. He could be in for breakout season.

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TWINS – Second Place (Wild Card)

If the Indians had made the moves the Twins made in the off-season (adding the free-agent power bats of Nelson Cruz, C.J. Cron, Jonathan Schoop and Marwin Gonzalez … a total of 106 home runs last season), they would have run away with the division this year.  The fact that the Twins, not the Indians (in apparent payroll reduction mode), made those moves has opened the door for the Twins to challenge for the Central Division crown. (Okay, I’m from Minnesota, maybe this is home-town thinking – but I’m sticking to it.)

Nelson Cruz photo

Nelson Cruz, new Twins power source.  Photo by Keith Allison

Let’s take a look at the Twins, starting with the line-up.  Free-agent (Mariners) DH Nelson Cruz is the key. Cruz went .256-37-97 a year ago – and has hit 37 or more home runs in each of the past five seasons.  He may be 38, but the five-time All Star has plenty of pop left in his bat.  (Ah, the luxury of the DH.)  Over at 1B, the Twins added free agent (Rays) C.J. Cron (.253-30-74). The homers and RBI were career (five-season) highs, but Cron should be good for 25 long balls. The Twins also added Jonathan Schoop (free agent, Brewers) to handle second base. Schoop hit .233-21-61 in what was an off year.  Finally, the Twins brought in free agent (Astros) Marwin Gonzalez (.247-16-68). Gonzalez can play anywhere on the diamond, but is likely to hold down third base until Miguel Sano returns from a foot injury.  No matter where he plays, the Twins will give Gonzalez plenty of at bats.

In 2018, Marwin Gonzalez started 65 games in LF, 29 games at SS, 19 games at 2B, 21 games at 1B and 2 games at 3B.

The Twins returned some quality bats to the lineup as well. LF Eddie Rosario went .288-24-77; SS Jorge Polanco went .288-6-42 in 77 games (suspension); and RF Max Kepler put up a .224-20-58 line and is a plus-defender (with offensive upside).  The surprise of the 2018 season may very well be Byron Buxton, who had a tough year in 2018 (.156-0-4 in 28 games … toe injury/migraines). Buxton is considered MLB’s fastest player and is a Gold Glove defender.  The Twins have been waiting for him to deliver on his offensive potential and this might be the year.  As this is written, Buxton is hitting .448-4-13 in 29 Spring Training at bats.  If the 25-year-old has “figured it out,” a 20-20 season would be the low end of expectations.   The Twins are also hoping for a breakout campaign for 3B Miguel Sano – currently recovering from an off-season heel injury. Sano has 25-30 home run power (.264-28-77 in 2017), but suffered through a down season in 2018 (.199-13-41 in 71 games). It will be interesting to see where he stands when he returns (expected in May).  Jason Castro will likely handle the bulk of the catching.  Notably, the Twins can put together a pretty solid bench from the likes of Ehire Adrianza, Willians Astudillo, Jake Cave, Ronald Torreyes and Zack Granite.   This team will score some runs.

On the mound, the rotation is led by Jose Berrios (12-11, 3.84, with 202 strikeouts in 192 1/3 innings) and Kyle Gibson (10-13, 3.62). Also in the rotation is Jake Odorizzi (7-10, 4.49).  Then there are the newcomers.  Michael Pineda may be the key to the Twins chances to catch the Indians. Coming off 2017 Tommy John Surgery, Pineda is both high-reward and high risk. He last pitched in the majors for the Yankees in 2017, going 8-4, 4.39.  The Twins also added Martin Perez (2-7, 6.22 in 2018 … elbow issues). Perez, a 13 –game winner in 2017, has looked sound in Spring Training. This is a workable rotation, with some positive upside, that can keep the Twins in games.  It is not, however, a dominant staff like that of the Indians.  That may be the difference in the Central.

Like the Indians, the Twins also have some questions in the bullpen – although they do have some solid arms.  What they don’t have is a proven closer. (Craig Kimbrel is still out there guys.)  It appears the ninth inning will belong to either Trevor May (4-1, 3.20 in 24 appearances) or free-agent signee Blake Parker. Parker, with 14 saves last season (2-1, 3.26, 70 strikeouts in 66 1/3 innings) appears to have the edge.   Other bullpen assets include: Taylor Rogers (2.63 in 72 appearances) and Trevor Hildenberger (5.42 in 73 games).

Overall, the Twins look to give the Indians a run for their money, but the Indians’ rotation may be just too much.  Now, if trade rumors surrounding some of the Cleveland staff come to fruition, the Twins could sneak by. I do think they’ve improved enough for a Wild Card berth.

KEY OFF SEASON-MOVE

The addition of DH Nelson Cruz and his 35-40 home run power will jolt the Twins offense.

PLAYER TO WATCH

An interesting story out of Spring Training has been 30-year-old Ryne Harper – working to make his MLB on-field debut.  Harper was called up to the major (by the Mariners) in May of 2017 – but was sent back down about three weeks later without making an appearance. He signed a minor-league contract with the Twins in February of 2018 and pitched last season at AA and AAA. In eight minor league seasons, Harper is 29-24, 2.56 in 293 relief appearances.  Harper, at this writing, has made eight appearances and thrown eight innings – with no earned runs and ten strikeouts.  Like to see him get into an MLB box score.  (Then, of course, there is the ongoing Minnesota Byron Buxton watch. Could this be THE year?)

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WHITE SOX – Third Place

I do like the direction White Sox squad and can’t see them losing 100 games again.  They are also a few pieces away from .500, but are moving in the right direction. That should be good enough for third place in the Central Division.

Let’s start with the starting pitching. Reynaldo Lopez (7-10, 3.91 in 32 starts), sporting a high-90’s fastball and solid slider, looks like the real deal.  Carlos Rodon (6-8, 4.18) continues to show hints of solid potential – and will be the Sox’ Opening Day starter. The Sox also added nine-year veteran Ivan Nova (trade Pirates), who was 9-9, 4.19 a year ago and could pass on some wisdom to the White Sox’ mound prospects (as well as chew up innings). The fourth spot in the rotation looks to belong to Lucas Giolito (10-13, 6.13, in 32 starts), while reports have veteran Ervin Santana and Manny Banuelos competing for the final spot.  Both Santana and Banuelos have potential health issues to deal with.  The Sox will be keeping an eye on prospect Michael Kopech, recovering from Tommy John surgery. Just 23-years-old, Kopech has five minor league seasons under his belt (24-22, 3.05 with 170 strikeouts in 126 1/3 innings).  The point here is, the White Sox are working to build the rotation for the future.

The ChiSox did fortify the bullpen adding Alex Colome (trade, Mariners), who went 7-5, 3.04 with 12 saves in 2018, and free agent Kelvin Herrera (2-3, 2.44, with 17 saves for Washington and Kansas City a year ago). Colome, with a mid-90’s fastball had 47 saves for the Rays in 2017, should handle the ninth inning effectively for the White Sox. Herrera gives them a backup at closer and a reliable late inning setup man. Other key arms in the pen are: Sinkerballer Nate Jones (3.00 in 33 games); Jace Fry (4.38 in 59 appearances, with 70 strikeouts in 51 1.3 innings). and Juan Minaya (3.28 in 52 appearances).

Jose Abreu White sox photo

Jose Abreu, reliable power in Chicago.  Photo by rrescot

Going to the lineup, three names to remember are: Jose Abreu, Yonder Alonso and Daniel Palka – they’ll be in the middle of it all. Abreu at 1B brings steady power (.265-22-68 in 2018 and 146 home runs in five MLB seasons). Switch hitter Alonso (acquired in a trade with the Indians) hit .250-23-83 a year ago and will bring some port-side power to the lineup at DH; and LF Palka went .240-27-67, but needs to cut down on his strikeouts (153 K’s in 417 at bats). SS Tim Anderson will also play a key offensive role – after a .240-20-64, 26-steal campaign. The remainder of the lineup looks like: Wellington Castillo (.259-6-15 in 49 games) at C, along with free-agent James McCann; Yolmer Sanchez (.242-8-55, with 14 steals at) 2B; Yoan Moncada (.235-17-61, with 12 steals) at 3B. The  outfield will be  filled out from among Jon Jay (.268-3-40 for the Royals and Diamondbacks); Adam Engel (.235-6-29, with 16 steals); and Leury Garcia. (.271-4-32, with 12 steals).  Waiting in the wings is of prospect Elroy Jimenez – a .311 hitter with 65 home runs in five minor league seasons.  Pretty sure he’ll be playing in Chicago some time this season.

The Sox get extra credit for being in the Manny Machado sweepstakes.  It probably was no coincidence that they added Yonder Alonso (Machado’s brother-in-law) and Jon Jay (a Machado off-season workout partner) this off-season.

The Sox will be improved, but 75-78 wins might be the ceiling. Still, BBRT thinks they’ve made enough progress to finish ahead of the Royals and Tigers.

KEY OFF-SEASON MOVE

Trading for Alex Colome gave the White Sox one less worry for 2019 – they have a dependable and experienced closer.

PLAYER TO WATCH

At some time during the year, I expect to see Elroy Jimenez in the White Sox outfield.  The 22-year-old already has five minor-league seasons under his belt – with a .311 average and 65 home runs.  In 2018, he went .337-22-75 at Double A and Triple A.  He’s close to ready and the White Sox are likely to give him a shot.

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TIGERS – Fourth place

The Tigers scored the second fewest runs in the AL in 2018 (630), hit the fewest home runs (135) and had fourth-lowest team batting average – and they didn’t take any major steps toward improvement.

In 2018, Nick Castellanos was the only Tiger to drive in more than 54 runs (89), hit more than 19 home runs (23) or (among qualifiers) bat higher than .269 (.298)

Miguel Cabrera photo

Miguel Cabrera – Comeback Player of the Year? The Bengals could use it.  Photo by Keith Allison

Detroit could take a small step forward if Miguel Cabrera (who missed much of last season with a torn biceps) can put himself into the running for Comeback Player of the Year.  Cabrera is in his 16th MLB season – and the wear and tear is starting to show.  Still, he is an 11-time All Star and four-time batting champ – and only two seasons removed from a .316-38-108 campaign.  He will once again b in the middle of the lineup.  Cabrera’s main support will come from RF Nick Castellanos (.298-23-89), a steady, professional hitter; newcomer, free-agent Josh Harrison (.250-8-38 in 97 games for the Pirates); and Niko Goodrum, who can really play around the diamond, and will get plenty of at bats after his .245-16-53, with 12 steals, a year ago. Also in the infield will be free-agent signee SS Jody Mercer (.251-6-39 with the Pirates); 3B Jeimer Candelario (.224-19-54); and C Grayson Greiner (.219-0-12 in 30 games and .266-4-23 at Triple A).

Joining Castellanos in the outfield, we are likely to see power-hitting prospect Christian Stewart (.267-2-10 in 17 games and .263-25-80 at three minor league stops) in LF and Jacoby Jones (.207-11-34, with 11 steals) in CF.  DH may be by committee with John Hicks, Mikie Mahtook and, at times, Cabrera.

On the mound, the rotation will miss Michael Fulmer (knee). It now looks like the rotation will include Jordan Zimmerman (7-8, 4.52), Mathew Boyd (9-13, 4.39), Daniel Norris (0-5, 5.68), Matt Moore (3-8, 6.79 with the Rangers) and free-agent signee Tyson Ross (8-9, 4.15 for the Cardinals and Padres). Last season, no Tiger pitcher won more than nine games – and Mike Fiers was the only starter with a winning record (7-6, 3.48).  Fiers, by the way, was traded to the A’s in mid-season.  Tyson Ross looks like the best bet to reach double-digit wins for Detroit. The nine-season MLB veteran has a killer slider. He was 2014 All Star and has twice exceeded 30 starts and reached double-digit wins in a season.

In the pen, Shane Greene (32 saves, but a 5.12 ERA) will close. Greene did fan 65 batters in 63 1.3 innings. If Greene falters, 24-year-old Joe Jimenez is ready to step up.  Jimenez was a bright spot in the pen, going 5-4, 4.31 and fanning 78 batters in 62 2/3 innings.   Others in the pen could include Daniel Stumpf (4.93 in 56 games), Buck Farmer (4.15 in 66 games) and Drew Verhagen (4.63 in 41 games).  I wouldn’t be surprise to see some young arms earning MLB auditions in the Tiger pen over the course of the season. Heck, depending how the season goes, we may even see old-schooler Ron Gardenhire try the Rays “Opener” and “Bullpen Days” strategies.

KEY OFF-SEASON MOVE

The Tigers were not very active this off-season.  BBRT will go with Tyson Ross for this recognition.  At 8-9, 4.15 for the Cardinals and Padres a year ago, he seems the Tiger most likely to put up double-digit wins.

PLAYER TO WATCH

BBRT likes Blaine Hardy. The 32-year-old lefty went 4-5, 3.56 in 30 games (13 starts). His career record is 13-9, 3.60. I’d be tempted to give him a few more starts – a fitting reward for ten minor-league campaigns (39-23, 2.68).  I do love to see perseverance rewarded.  (There is also, of course, the Miguel Cabrera watch.)

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ROYALS – Fifth Place

The Royals dropped 104 games last season – and there is no shortage of reasons why.  They scored the third-fewest runs in the American League, while giving up the fourth-most. Their team ERA (4.94) was the AL’s second-highest. From a power standpoint, they hit 155 home runs and gave up 205.  As BBRT looks at the direction the Royals are taking in “recovery,” it appears speed and defense are among the priorities.

Whit Merrifield photo

Whit Merrifield makes the Royals’ offense go.  Photo by Keith Allison

In the off season they added free-agent CF Billy Hamilton (.236-4-29, with 34 stolen bases). Hamilton provides speed on the bases and covers a lot of ground on defense – but needs to get on base more.  Hamilton will probably bat in the number-nine spot, which means a couple of additional speedsters will follow (the second time through the order). Whit Merrifield is back at 2B.  He a plus defender and, last year, led MLB in hits (192) and stolen bases (45).  He hit .304 – and added 12 home runs.  Right after Merrifield in the order, we’re likely to see SS Adalberto Mondesi. The 23-year-old takes over full-time from the departed Alcides Escobar.  Last season, in just 75 games, Mondesi hit .276, with 14 home runs, 37 RBI and 32 steals.  These could be the “Running Royals” of 2019. The Royals will need Mondesi’s power-potential to be realized, since they lost their most reliable power source C Salvador Perez – to Tommy John surgery.  Perez had put up the identical total of 27 home runs and 80 RBI in each of the last two seasons. In 2018, he was, in fact, the team leader in home runs and RBI. How much are they losing? Kansas City signed Martin Maldonado (free agent) to handle the catching.  In 2018, Maldonado went .223-9-44 for the Angels and Astros.

In the middle of the lineup, the Royals are looking to 1B Ryan O’Hearn (.262-12-30 in 44 games); six-time Gold Glover LF Alex Gordon (.245-13-54, with 12 steals); and DH Jorge Soler (.265-9-28 in 61 games … foot fracture). Third base should go to Hunter Dozier .229-11-34 in 102 games, while RF looks to go some combination of Bret Phillips, Brian Goodwin and Chris Owings. Owings (.206-4-22 in 106 games) can play multiple positions – adding to his bench value.

The Royals will annoy a lot of people with their speed, but there is not enough offense (particularly without Perez) to make a move up in the standings.

The rotation will be led by Danny Duffy (8-12, 4.88) – who has been working his way through shoulder issues. Brad Keller (9-6, 3.08 in 41 games/20 starts) – showing great potential (and a mid-90’s sinking fastball) his rookie season.  Joining Duffy and Keller will be Jakob Junis (9-12, 4.37); innings-eater Ian Kennedy (3-9, 4.26 in 22 starts); and, most likely, Jorge Lopez (2-5, 5.03). Chris Ellis and Health Fillmyer are other possibilities for the fifth spot.  Fillmyer (4-2, 4.26)  could also slot into long relief.

The bullpen will be led by new closer free-agent signee Brad Boxberger (3-7, 4.39 with 32 saves for the Diamondbacks).  Wily Peralta (1-0, 3.67, with 14 saves in 37 appearance), who has thrived in a relief role, should serve as a late-inning setup man and pick up a few saves along the way.  After coming over form the Brewers, Peralta notched 14 saves in 14 opportunities for the Royals. Among the others likely to be in the pen are Kevin McCarthy (3.25 in 65 appearances), Tim Hill (4.53 in 70 games) and Jake Diekman (4.73 in 71 games for Texas and Arizona.)  The bullpen could prove a Royals’ strength in 2018.

KEY OFF-SEASON MOVE

Signing Brad Boxberger free agent Brad Boxberger (32 saves a year ago, 41 in 2015) really lengthens and strengthens the Royals’ bullpen.  The question is, “How many leads will he be given to protect?)

PLAYER TO WATCH

23-year-old Adalberto Mondesi, taking over at shortstop, promises to bring a combination of speed and power to the Royals. The fleet switch-hitter went .276-14-37, with 32 steals in just 75 games.  Mondesi appear to have “found it,” after hitting just .181 in 72 MLB games in 2016-17.  BBRT will be watching to see how he fares in a full MLB campaign.

NEXT UP – THE AMERICAN LEAGUE WEST

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Baseball Roundtable Preview Week – Day Four – American League East

PrfeiewIt’s Day Four of  BBRT’s 2019 Preview Week and time to move on to the American League – again going East to West.  Things, as I continue to caution, can change – particularly since there are still some “difference makers” out there on the free-agent market (Like Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel).   BBRT  today continues its look at each MLB Division, this time the AL East.  Once we’ve gone through the divisions, we’ll wrap up with predictions for the major awards (ROY, CYA, MVP).   Note:  After the general comments, each team is reviewed in more detail.  Keep in mind, these are just BBRT’s opinions and conjecture – not the result of any inside insight or info.

For the  NL East Preview, click here.

For the NL Central, click here. 

For the NL West, click here.

For the AL Central, click here.

For the AL West, click here.

For the major awards, click here.

AMERICAN LEAGUE EAST

Red Sox

Yankees (Wild Card)

Rays

Blue Jays

Orioles

The Red Sox won 108 games – and the Division title – a year ago; and the boys in the band are pretty much back. They boast a solid offense, led by Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez – and can expect even more from Rafael Devers.  The rotation is again led by Chris Sale and has solid arms from one-through-five.  The only weakness might be in the bullpen, where they did not re-sign elite closer Craig Kimbrel.  The Yankees have 13’1” and 527 pounds of power in Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton (and a number of other thumpers), as well as a lights-out bullpen.  Concerns with the starting rotation, however, will keep them in the Wild Card spot. The Rays and their “Opener Strategy” and “Bullpen Days” will again be competitive, but don’t have the offense to catch the Red Sox or Yankees. Toronto will be looking up in the standing and waiting for Vlad Guerrero, Jr.; while the Orioles look to be in for another long season.

 

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RED SOX – First Place

2018 AL MVP Mookie Betts will again lead the BoSox offense - and he'll have plenty of help. Photo by Keith Allison

2018 AL MVP Mookie Betts will again lead the BoSox offense – and he’ll have plenty of help.
Photo by Keith Allison

The Red Sox went 108-54 last season – and brought home a World Series Championship. Pretty much the same cast in in place, and they are ready for an encore. The rotation and lineup are back intact and the offense might even be improved, depending on when  Dustin Pedroia returns 2B. The only potential weakness is in the bullpen, where 2018 closer Craig Kimbrel – one of the best in the business – is still out there as a free agent.

Let’s start with the potential trouble spot – closer.  The contest looks to be between Matt Barnes and Ryan Brasier.  Brasier, however, has had health issues this spring (toe) and Barnes probably now has the edge.  The 29-year-old Barnes would bring a 96-mph fastball and a solid curve to the ninth inning. In a setup role last season, he went 6-4, 3.65 in 62 appearance. More important, he fanned 96 batters in 61 2/3 innings. Looking further into the pen, potential key components include: Brasier (1.60 in 34 games); Heath Embree (4.20 in 67 games); Hector Valazquez (3.18 in 47 games); and Brandon Workman (3.27 in 43 games).  Given what we can expect will be a tight race with the Yankees, I anticipate the Red Sox will move to bolster the bullpen by mid-season.

CONSISTENCY NOT NECESSARILY A HOBGOBLIN …

Chris Sale has been among the top five AL Cy Young Award vote-getters in each of the past six seasons – although he has never captured the award.

The rotation looks set, minus some health concerns (regarding southpaw Chris Sale’s shoulder). With proper handling, Sale (12-4, 2.11 with 237 strikeouts in 158 innings) should again turn in performance worthy of Cy Young Award consideration. Sale will be followed in the rotation by another veteran lefty, David Price.  The 2012 Cy Young Award winner went 16-7, 3.58 in 30 starts and has won 15 or more games in five of the last seven seasons.  Next up is another former CYA (2016), who doesn’t put up as flashy a stat line as Sales or Price, but pitches well enough to when (a la, perhaps, Jack Morris).  Rick Porcello went 17-7, 4.28 in 2018 and has posted double-digit wins in nine of his ten MLB seasons.  The fourth starter will be Eduardo Rodriguez (13-5, 3.82, with 144 strikeouts in 129 innings). At 26, he may be on the verge of a breakout season.  Post-season hero Nathan Eovaldi will also be back. Acquired last July in a trade with the Rays (and signed for 2019 as a free agent), Eovaldi went 3-3, 3.33 in 12 appearances for the Red Sox (11 starts). Eovaldi, who has twice had Tommy John surgery, needs to be handled with care. If any of these falter, knuckleballer Steven Wright or prospect Darwinzon Hernandez could take a spot.

No team scored more runs in 2018 than the Red Sox (876). They also led MLB in team batting average (.268) and slugging percentage (.453).

In 2018, The Red Sox had two of the top four vote betters in the AL Most Valuable Player balloting – and that’s a pretty good way to start your offense.  It begins with 2018 AL MVP Mookie Betts, the AL batting champ (.346), who also hit 32 home runs, stole 30 bases, drove in 81 runners and scored an AL-best 129 runs. Oh, and the Red Sox’ RF  also brought home his third consecutive Gold Glove. He gets plenty of help from DH J.D. Martinez (fourth in the MVP voting), who hit .330, with 43 home runs and a league-topping 130 RBI.  Joining Betts in the garden will again be LF Andrew Benintendi – just 24-year-old – who hit .290-16-87, with 21 steals (and there may be a Gold Glove in his future). CF belongs to 2018 Gold Glover Jackie Bradley, Jr. (.234-13-57, with 17 steals).

In the infield, 3B Rafael Devers (just 22-years-old) hit 21 home runs in 121 games (.240 average, 66 RBI) and has tremendous upside.  He just needs to hone his plate discipline – 38 walks and 121 whiffs. Devers can look to his left for advice from young (26-years-old), but veteran (seventh MLB season) shortstop Xander Bogaerts – who hit .288, with 23 home runs and 103 RBI last season.  In his first full season, Bogaerts drew 39 walks and fanned 138 times.  By 2018, his walks were up by 17, his whiffs down by 39 and his average up 48 points. Over to Bogaerts’ left, the Red Sox hope to see more of a familiar face this season – 2007 Rookie of the Year, 2008 AL MVP, four-time All Star and four-time Gold Glover Dustin Pedroia. Pedroia missed nearly all of 2018 (knee) and will start the season on the  injured list. He is expected to return early in the season and, if healthy, should be good for a .300 average (his career mark) and 15 long balls. Until Pedroia is ready – or when he needs occasional rest –  the Red Sox have plenty of protection in the versatile Brock Holt (.277-7-46 in 109 games) and Eduardo Nunez (.265-10-44 in 127 games).  Both can effectively play multiple positions. Over at 1B, we’re likely to see both left-handed hitting Mitch Moreland (.245-15-68) and righty Steve Pearce (.284-11-42). The bulk of the catching will be handled by Christian Vazquez (.207-3-16 in 80 games), who has shown solid defensive skills.

In 2018, Brock Holt started games at 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, LF, RF and DH.

Overall, Boston has a balanced and talented offense (power, contact and speed), a solid rotation and a bullpen with potential.  They should again hold off the Yankees.

KEY OFF-SEASON MOVE

When you win 108 games, you’re not likely to make a lot of changes.  As expected, the Red Sox were quiet on the free-agent front. The biggest move by the Red Sox was one of subtraction, rather than addition. It was not re-signing free-agent closer Craig Kimbrel, who has 333 MLB saves (108 saves for Boston over the past three seasons). Of course, Kimbrel is still on the market, so that could change (not likely, though).

PLAYER TO WATCH

For BBRT, it’s Matt Barnes.  Barnes and Ryan Brasier are in the Red Sox’ closer race (they could even share the job).  I lean toward Barnes, who has shown closer stuff – improving each season.  His strikeouts per nine ratio has gone like this: 2014 – 8.0; 2015 – 8.2; 2016 – 9.6; 2017 – 10.7; 2018 – 14.0. Still, he only has two saves in his five-season MLB career (20 wins and 14 losses) and his 3.65 ERA in 2018 was his career best.  BBRT will be watching to see how Barnes and Brasier are handled as the season opens.

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YANKEES – Second Place (Wild Card)

I must admit, I originally projected the Yankees’ would overtake the Red Sox for the East Division title.  But then, Luis Severino – the expected Yankee rotation “ace” – came down with shoulder issues.  (In addition, CF and lead off man Aaron Hicks has had back issues this spring and may not be in the Opening Day lineup.)   The race between arch-rivals Red Sox and Yankees is likely to be so close, missing Severino for three to four weeks could be critical.  (I also thought it was interesting that the Yankees – as I write this – are working toward a deal with veteran free-agent  Gio Gonzalez, who went 10-11, 4.21 for the Nationals and Brewers last season.  Could this indicate a level of concern regarding the rotation? Gonzalez, by the way, has started 30 or more games in eight of the past ten seasons).

Still, the Yankees have plenty of power in the lineup (an MLB-record 267 home runs a year ago), a truly lights-out bullpen and (I believe) just enough quality in the rotation to once again capture a Wild Card sport.

In 2018, the Yankees set a new MLB record with 267 home runs – but were still outscored 876 to 851 by the Red Sox (208 round trippers). Boston also had an edge in runs surrendered (647-669).

Aaron Judge ... holding court in the Yankee lineup. Photo by Keith Allison

Aaron Judge … holding court in the Yankee lineup.
Photo by Keith Allison

Let’s start with the lineup. It’s hard to find a weak spot in the Yankee lineup. In 2018, six Bronx Bombers hit at least 20 home runs and five drove in 75 or more runs.  It all starts with DH Giancarlo Stanton (.266-38-100), who has topped 30 long balls in every season in which he has played at least 120 games (five of nine).  He can expect plenty of help from RF Aaron Judge, who went .278-27-67 in 112 game last season (wrist fracture) – after hitting 52 home runs as a rookie in 2017.  A really good sign: Last season, Judge improved his plate discipline, walking 67 times and fanning 76 – as compared to 2017’s 127 walks and 208 K’s. Judge can truly be a big (6’7” – 282 lbs.) bat in the Yankee line up.  Sticking with the outfield, CF (and switch hitter) Aaron Hicks had a career year in 2018 (.248-27-79, with 11 steals) and plus-defender Brett Gardner (.236-12-45, with 16 steals should be back in LF. If any of these miss time, 24-years-old Clint Frazier (.305-11-24 in 52 minor league games and .265 in 15 games for the Yankees last season) could pick up some playing time.  Note: Hicks may miss some early time. 

The Yankees boast unexpected power in the infield.  Rookie 3B Miguel Andujar was sterling, going .297-27-92. He’s just 24-years-old and had plenty of upside (his 47 doubles point to 30-35 home run potential). Second base goes to 22-year-old Gleyber Torres, who also has an intriguing upside, after going .271-24-77 as a rookie in 2018. At 1B, the Yankees can look to the surprising Luke Voit, who hit .333-14-33 in 39 games for the Yankees.  It appears Voit has a notable edge over Greg Bird, who has yet to live up to offensive expectations (.199-11-38 in 82 games).  There could be issues at SS.  While Didi Gregorius (27 home runs in 2018) is probably out until July (Tommy John surgery), the Yankees brought in veteran free-agent Troy Tulowitzki to fill the gap. Tulo has seven 20+ home run season on his resume, but also has had injury issues in the past (missed the 2017 after heel surgery and has had only three seasons of 140 or more games in 12 MLB campaigns). We’ll have to see how this works out.  If Tulowitzki can’t hold the SS spot until Degregorius returns, the Yanks do have options.  Torres could slide over to short and free-agent (Rockies) signee DJ LeMahieu could handle 2B. LeMahieu is a two-time All Star and three-time Gold Glover, with a batting title and a .298 career average on his resume.  He might just force his way into the lineup.  Gary Sanchez and Austin Romine will handle the catching.  Sanchez offers more power (17 home runs, but only a .186 average in 89 games), while Romine offers better defense (and did hit .244, with ten home runs, in 77 games).

Luis Severino faced some shoulder issues in Spring Training and will not get the Opening Day start.  Indications are that he won’t miss much time. Of more concern may be his 2018 first half/second half splits. Severino went 14-2, 2.31 before the All Star break and 5-6, 5.57 after.

The starting rotation does raise cause for concern, with two members of the anticipated rotation not ready for Opening Day.  Staff leader, 25-year-old Luis Severino (19-8, 3.39, with 220 strikeouts in 191 1/3 innings), is facing shoulder issues. In addition, six-time All Star, 18-season veteran C.C. Sabathia (9-7, 3.65 in 29 starts) will start the season on the Injured List  (The 38-year-old Sabathia an angioplasty in the off season).

Opening Day now belongs to 30-year-old Masahiro Tanaka, who went 12-6, 3.75 a year ago and has double-digit wins in each of his five MLB seasons. Next up is James Paxton (acquired in a trade with the Mariners). The 30-year-old southpaw is entering his seventh MLB season. Over the past two years with Seattle, he has gone 23-11, 3.40 and fanned 364 batters in 296 1/3 innings. He should have more opportunities for wins as part of the Yankee rotation. The third spot in the rotation will be J.A. Happ – acquired by the Yankees in July and re-signed.  Happ – a 12-year-veteran and a 20-game winner in 2016 – was a solid pickup for the Yankees.  After going 10-6, 4.18 for the Blue Jays before the trade, he went 7-0, 2.69 in 11 starts for New York.  The absence of Severino and Sabathia opens up a spot for Jonathan Loaisiga. The 24-year-old turned in a 6-1, 2.89 record at three minor-league levels in 2018.  He was 2-0, 5.11 in nine appearances with the Yankees.  It also opens the door (or at least a window) for Domingo German (but a fifth starter may not be needed until May).

The bullpen is fully loaded and ready to fire.  These power arms can close down a game in a big hurry. It starts with closer Aroldis Chapman and his consistently 100 mph+ heater.  Chapman was 3-0, 2.45 with 32 saves a year ago – and fanned 16.3 batters per nine innings. Also returning are Dellin Betances (2.70 ERA in 66 appearances, with 15.5 whiffs per nine); Chad Green (2.50 in in 63 appearances and 11.2 strikeouts per nine innings); and Zach Britton (3.10 in 41 appearance for the Orioles and Yankees – and 142 career saves on his resume). And, in a “the rich get richer” kind of moment, there is also free-agent signee (Rockies) Adam Ottavino, who put up a 2.43 ERA in 75 appearance for Colorado, striking out 13.0 batters per nine.

Overall the Yankees have a powerful line up and a, perhaps even more, powerful bullpen.  Questions about the starting pitching and at shortstop may keep them from overtaking the Red Sox – but I can’t see them finishing any lower than second (and in a Wild Card spot).

KEY OFF-SEASON PICKUP

Some would point to the signing of Adam Ottavino – adding to an already dominant  bullpen – or to the signing of DJ LeMahieu  – a two-time All Star and three tie Gold Glover – who can play all around the infield.   Given the Yankees early rotation issues, BBRT will go with the signing of James Paxton, who went 23-11, 3.40 for Seattle over the last two seasons. The Yankees needed the added depth to the rotation. 

PLAYER TO WATCH

BBRT will be watching Luke Voit to see if his bat is for real. In 2018, with the Cardinals and Yankees, Voit hit .322-15-36 in 47 games. After hitting between .242 and .273 in his first three minor-league season, Voit broke out in 2016 with a .297-19-74 season at Double A (St. Louis system) and then went .327-13-50 in 74 games at Triple A in 2017.  A 2018 call up to the Cardinals led to a .246-4-18 line in 62 games. Back in the minors in 2018, Voit hit .301-11-14 in 78 games, before his solid performance for the Yankees.  It will be interesting to see what Voit can do over a full MLB season.

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RAYS – Third Place

Last May (May 19, precisely), the Rays launched what is now known as the “Opener” strategy. Starting an “opener” (charged with getting the first three to six outs) and following up with a more traditional starter or long reliever.  They also initiated “Bullpen Days” when relievers owned the whole game.

HOW’S THAT FOR OPENERS?

In the Rays “Opener” strategy, the most-used opener (Ray Stanek) started 29 games (in 59 appearances) – and averaged 1.4 innings pitched per start.  How effective was the strategy?  The Rays won 15 and lost 14 in those 29 Stanek starts.   Overall, the Rays wet 46-38 when using traditional starters and 44-34 with the Opener strategy and Bull Pen days combined.

Despite the success of its “Opener” strategy, the Rays did go out and add a traditional starter in the off-season – free-agent (Astros) Charlie Morton (15-3, 3.13 in 30 starts). Morton boasts a high-90’s heater and, last season, whiffed 201 batters in 167 innings.

EVER WATCH FEAR FACTOR?

Charlie Morton – a 2018 All Star – brings a mid-to-high-90’s heat, a knee-buckling curve and a willingness to “go inside” to his mound work.  Morton has led his league in hit batsmen four times in the last six seasons.

Despite his 29-10 record over the past two seasons, Morton will not be the “ace” of the traditional portion of the Rays’ rotation.  That honor goes to 26-year-old southpaw Blake Snell, the 2018 American League Cy Young Award winner.  Snell led the AL in wins with 21 and ERA at 1.89, while fanning 221 in 180 2/3 innings. The third true starter on the staff will be Tyler Glasgow – picked up from the Pirates last July in the Chris Archer trade. The big (6’8”/220-pound) righty went 1-5, 4.20 in 11 starts for the Rays – but has a high-90’s fastball (that occasionally reaches tripe-digits) and the Rays are hoping to harness his potential.  (Morton may prove a good mentor.) The final two “starts” will be Opener or Bullpen Days.  I find that a little scary, but maybe I’m just being too “old school.”

The Rays’ 3.74 team earned run average (3.74) was the second-best in the AL last season, so who am I to criticize their Opener and Bullpen Days strategies.  I’m still waiting to see the longer-term impact of the new roles on bullpen arms and starter psyches.  Still, the addition of Morton relieves (pun intended) some of the pressure off a bullpen that threw an MLB-high 824 innings last year.  Pitching – in whatever form –  is likely to be strength again.

The bullpen features a new closer. (Sergio Romo, who saved 25 games a year ago left via free agency.­)  The new ninth-inning guy is likely to be 24-year-old southpaw Jose Alvarado, who has great stuff, but has also shown command issues. Alvarado went 1-6. 2. 39 in 70 games last season, fanning 80 in 54 innings – but also walking 29. In six minor league seasons, he’s walked 153 (and struck out 263) in 229 1/3 innings. If he can keep the ball in the strike zone, he has the potential to become a top closer. Other key traditional bullpen arms include: Diego Castillo (4-2, 3.18 in 43 games/11 starts), Chaz Roe (1-3, 3.58 in 61 games) and newcomer (trade) Emilio Pagan (3-1, 4.35 in 55 games for Oakland).  Then, of course, there are a lot of less traditional (at least in usage) bullpen members.  Like Ryne Stanek (remember him from earlier), who went 2-3, 2.98 in 59 appearances (including 29 starts of two innings or less) and Ryan Yarbrough (often the second out the pen in Opener games), who went 16-6, 3.91 in 38 games (six starts) and 147 1/3 innings.  The long (and mostly short) of it, the Rays will use a well-stocked bullpen and an non-traditional approach to “getting outs” again this season.  The proof may be in the pudding, but I doubt they will improve on last season’s 90 wins or third-place finish.

 Willy Adames photo

Rays SS Willy Adames – on his way up. Photo by hueytaxi

The Rays came up a little short on offense a year ago – finishing ninth in the AL in runs scored (and more than 100 runs behind both the Red Sox and Yankees) and 14th in home runs – despite the league’s third-highest team batting average.  (Remember, the Rays had the  AL’s second-lowest ERA and still didn’t make the post-season.) It was a team that needed power, but released their leading home run hitter (C.J. Cron).  While they did add a few bats in the off season, the Rays will still face a power shortage in 2019. Let’s look first at the newcomers. Avasial Garcia (free agent) went .236-19-49 in 93 games for the White Sox a year ago and should see time at DH and in a corner OF spot.  The Rays also picked up Yandy Diaz (trade, Indians), who can play either corner infield position, but has only one home run in 88 MLB games (a .283 average). Mike Zunino (trade, Mariners) brings power and solid defense the backstop position (.201-20-44 in 113 games).  As you can see, the Rays did not do a lot to address the power shortage. In fact, they may hit even fewer home runs in 2019 with Cron’s 30 dingers gone to the Twins.

Let’s scan the infield. First base may belong to Ji-Man Choi (.269-10-32 in 61 games), although Yandy Diaz could see some time there.  Also in the mix is 23-year-old Nathaniel Lowe, who hit .330-27-102 at three minor-league stops last season. If he is ready for the major league batter’s box, the Rays’ offense could take a step forward. Second base is likely to go to Joey Wendle (.300-7-61, with 16 steals), who will partner with SS Willy Adames (.278-10-34 in 85 games). Adames has considerable upside and could be a catalyst for the Ray’s offense.  Third base looks like Matt Duffy (.294-4-44).   One proviso here:  We may see some shifting of infield positions, particularly if the Rays work at getting Daniel Robertson’s bat (.262-9-34 in 87 games) into the lineup.  Robertson, last season, started games it 2B (35), SS (25), 3B (14) and LF (1).

The outfield seems more settled.  CF Kevin Kiermaier is a two-time Gold Glover in CF, but has had injury issues – topping 105 games played only once in the past five seasons. The Rays are hoping he can bounce back from last season’s .217-7-29 in 88 games.  LF goes to Tommy Pham, picked up last season in a trade with the Cardinals. Pham hit .275-21-63, with 15 steals for St. Louis and Tampa a year ago – .343-7-22 in 39 games for the Rays.  The Rays need him ready for Opening Day (he has had some shoulder issues). Over in right field, Austin Meadows (.287-6-17 in 59 games for the Pirates and Rays) should hold court.  The 24-year-old has hit .294 over six minor-league seasons and has plenty of upside.   And, of course, Avasail Garcia can put on a glove – although he seems more likely to stabilize the DH spot (where the Rays used 14 players a year ago).

Ultimately, the Rays have shown a knack for getting the most out of a versatile pitching staff and roster of position players.  I expect we’ll see a variety of lineups, continued “new age” pitching strategies and another season of .500+ baseball – but no post season appearance.

KEY OFF-SEASON MOVE

Free-agent Charlie Morton not only brings his 15-3 record and fastball to the Rays, he also brings 11 MLB seasons of experience – which could make him a solid source of advice for Tyler Glasgow.

PLAYER TO WATCH

BBRT will be watching SS Willy Adames – at 23-years-old already a big part of the Rays’ future. The Rays’ number-one prospect started 2018 at Triple A, where he hit .286-4-34 in 64 games.  He then hit .278-10-34 in 85 games with the Rays. The key, however, Is that Adames hit only .196 in his first 33 games, but then caught on and hit .330 the rest of the way.  

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BLUE JAYS – Fourth Place

A positive youth movement seems to be taking place in Toronto, but it isn’t ready to pay dividends yet. The talk of the town is, of course, Vlad Guerrero, Jr. – the future of third base in Toronto. Speculation is that Guererro will begin the season at Triple A (BBRT won’t get into that controversey), but be called up early in the season.  The 20-year-old does not appear to have anything more to prove in the minors.  In 2018, he hit .381-20-78, while moving from rookie ball all the way to Triple A.  Most telling is that he hit .336, with 6 home runs in 30 games at the minors’ highest level.

The Blue Jays have seen their win total drop in each of the last four seasons: 93-89-76-73.

While the Blue Jays (and their fans) await Guerrero, Brandon Drury (.169-1-10 in only 26 games … migraine, hand fracture) should hold sway at third base.   In his first two full MLB seasons (2016-17, Diamondbacks), Drury hit .275, with 29 home runs and 116 RBI in 269 games (playing 1B, 2B, 3B and corner OF).  If the  25-year-old Drury returns to form, you may see him at 1B and/or 2B to keep his bat in the lineup.

In the middle of the lineup expect to see 1B Justin Smoak, DH Kendrys Morales and RF Randal Grichuk.   Smoak is a solid defender, a steady bat (.242-25-77) and a veteran leader.  With the Blue Jays’ new direction, he may eventually be replaced at first by Drury or lefty-swinging, 23-year-old Rowdy Tellez (.314-4-14 in 23 games with the Blue Jays, after .270-13-50 in 112 games at Triple A). Morales, .249-21-57 a year ago, is a proven power source (seven seasons of 20+ home runs), but at 35-years-old may not be the best fit with this squad.  He will still get the bulk of DH at bats. Randal Grichuk (.245-25-61) provides a steady presence in RF.

Setting the table in the number-one and number-two spots should be Lourdes Gurriel, Jr. at 2B and Drury at 3B (that changes, of course, when Guerrero comes up).  At shortstop and batting down in the order will be free-agent signee Freddy Galvis (.248-13-67) – in his eighth MLB season. SS could eventually go to Gurriel (particularly if, for example, Guerrero comes up t0 play third and Drury moves to 2B).

In 2018, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. tied an MLB record with 11 consecutive multi-hit games (July 11-29). During the steak, he hit .500 (25-for-50), with three home runs, nine RBI and seven runs scored.

Other in the lineup should include: CF Kevin Pillar, and outstanding defender , who hit .252-15-59, with 14 steals a year ago; 23-year-old C Danny Jansen (a solid defender, who hit .247-3-8 in 31 games for the Blue Jays and .275-12-58 in 88 games at Triple A); and  an anticipated LF platoon of lefty Bill McKinney (.252-6-13 in 38 games) and righty Teoscar Hernandez (.239-22-57  in 134 contests. )  The Blue Jays are also waiting for prospects like infielder Bo Bichette and OF Anthony Alford to be ready to the big league club.  Patience may be a key word for Blue Jays fans in 2018; but the future could be exciting.

Marcus Stroman photo

Marcus Stroman will lead the Jays’ staff.  Photo by apardavila

In the age of power arms leading MLB rotations, the Blue Jays seem to be falling short.  Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez are set to lead the staff. Stroman is a ground ball pitcher – coming off some shoulder and blister concerns. He went 4-9, 5.54 last season, fanning 77 batters in 102 1/3 innings.  He did pitch 200+ innings in both 2016 and 2017 and the Blue Jays need a bounce back. Sanchez also has had health issues.  He was 15-2, 3.00 in 30 2016 starts – but, over the last two seasons, has gone 5-9, 4.72 in just 28 starts.  Again, the Blue Jays need a recovery. Free-agent signee Matt Shoemaker is also pointed toward the rotation. A 16-game winner in 2015, he’s also faced health issues and went 8-5, 4.63 – but only threw a total of 108 2/3 innings over the past two seasons.  Another bounce back needed. Starting to see a trend?   Other potential starters include free-agent signee Clay Bucholz (7-2, 2.01 for the Diamondbacks – coming back from 2017 flexor tendon surgery);  Clayton Richard (7-11, 5.53 for the Padres); Ryan Borucki (4-6, 3,87 in 17 starts for the Blue Jays); and Sean Reid-Foley (2-4, 5.13 in seven starts.) Borucki seems like a pretty good bet – having pitched a total of 174 2/3 innings for the Blue and their Triple A affiliate last season.  As you can see, the Blue Jays need their rotation candidates to either turn it around or turn it up.

In the bullpen, veteran Ken Giles (4.65 with 26 saves in 26 opportunities) is set.  Giles, at 28-years-old, has 160 saves on his resume and should handle the job.   Still, his 4.65 earned run average is a regression from his 2.30 of 2017. Bounce back anyone? Other bullpen arms should include: Ryan Tepera (5-5, 3.62 in 68 appearances); David Paulino (after a 2017 80-game suspension and elbow issues, but with a mid-90s heater); and Tim Mayza (2-0, 3.28 in 37 appearances).  Mayza, a southpaw who fanned 40 batters in 35 2/3 innings, is intriguing.

Overall, the Blue Jays have some high-potential youngsters in the lineup – who still must prove themselves. Even if the bulk of those youngster come through, the pitching staff still has too many question marks.  They are building toward and exciting young squad, but they are not there yet.

KEY OFF-SEASON MOVE

Not a lot to choose from here. BBRT will go with Clay Bucholz, signed as a free-agent (D-backs) and coming back from 2017 arm surgery.  Bucholz showed signs of recovery this past season, going 7-2. 2.01 in 16 starts (98 1/3 innings) for Arizona.  The two-time All Star could provide a stabilizing force in the Blue Jays’ rotations.

PLAYER TO WATCH

Gotta be Vlad Guererro Jr.  Once he comes up, he can be (the Blue Jays hope) the face of the franchise. Just 20-years-old, Guerrero is living up to his Hall of Fame genes.  In three minor-league seasons (276 games), he hit’s hit .331, with 41 home runs and 200 RBI.  Just as important, he’s put up 146 walks to 135 strikeouts – and a .414 on-base percentage. Further, in the tough Arizona fall League (2018), he hit .351 in 19 games.  Wow!  When he comes up, keep your eyes open.  

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ORIOLES – FIFTH Place

Things are not looking good in Baltimore – unless  you are a major fan of crab cakes.  Last season, the Orioles gave up the most runs in MLB (824).  In fact, they were the only team to surrender at least 800 runs. They were also the only team with an earned run average of 5.00 or higher (5.18).  On the offensive side of the game, they finished 27th out of thirty teams (and last in the DH-boasting AL) in runs scored (627) – one of only six teams to score less than 650 runs.  Unfortunately, for Baltimore fans, things don’t look much brighter for 2019.  The team went 47-115 in 2018 – and I wouldn’t expect a lot more in the season ahead.

Let’s start with the pitching. The Oriole’s rotation looks to be: Dylan Bundy (8-16, 5.45); Andrew Cashner (4-15, 5.29); Alex Cobb (5-15, 4.90); David Hess (3-10, 4.88); and Yefry Ramírez (1-8, 5.92).  All righties and all with 2018 ERA’s of at least 4.88. Also in the mix are: Mike Wright (4-2, 5.55) and newcomer, free-agent Nate Karns (coming off 2017 surgery and 2018 elbow issues), who missed the entire 2018 season. Overall, the Orioles starting staff put up a MLB-worst 5.48 ERA last seasons.  Outlook for 2019?  You have to expect some uptick in pitching.  Consider where some of these starters were in 2017): Dylan Bundy (13-9, 4.24); Andrew Cashner (11-11, 3.40); and Alex Cobb (12-10, 3.66).

Richard Bleier photo

Richard Bleier, career MLB ERA (111 games) of  1.97.  Photo by Keith Allison

The bullpen will be lead by closer Mychal Givens (0-7, 3.99 with nine saves). Others likely to play significant roles in the pen are Richard Bleier, Paul Fry, Miguel Castro and Tanner Scott. There is some hope here.  Bleier (3-0, 1.93 in 31 appearances) has a 1.97 ERA in 111 appearances over three MLB seasons. The Orioles’ most reliable arm however is recovering from 2018 surgery (but has pitched in Spring Training). Fry was 1-2, 3.35 in 35 appearances; Castro was 2-7, 3.96 in 63 appearances; and Scott (despite a 5.40 ERA) fanned 76 batters in 53 innings.

In 2018, the Orioles scored the fewest runs in the American League (622) – and Baltimore batsmen put up the unenviable combination of the fourth most-strikeouts (1,412) and fewest walks (422).  A bit more plate discipline might be in order.

Looking at the lineup, the 3-4-5 spots are likely to go to LF Trea Mancini (.242-25-58); DH Mark Trumbo (.261-17-44 in 90 games); and 1B Chris Davis (.168-16-49).

Chris Davis’ .168 average was the lowest in MLB history for a qualifying batter.

At the top of the order will be CF Cedric Mullins (.235-4-11 in 45 games) and, perhaps the Orioles’ most valuable player, 2B Jonathan Villar (.260-14-46, with 35 steals, for the Brewers and O’s). The Orioles may also looking for some help from D.J. Stewart in right field.  The 25-year-old has hit 49 home runs in four minor league seasons – but hit just .250. Also a possibility in RF Joey Rickard (.244-8-23 in 79 games). In three MLB seasons, the 28-year-old has hit  .252-17-61 in 275 games. Holding up the bottom of the order should be: 3B Renato Nunez (.275-7-20 in 60 games) and SS Richie Martin (who hit .300-6-42 at Double A).   A bright spot might be 24-year-old catcher Chance Cisco – who has hit just .197  in 73 MLB games – but has had a strong spring and has hit .306 over six minor league seasons.

KEY OFF-SEASON MOVE

The Orioles used the top pick in the December 2018 Rule 5 Draft to pick up 23-year-old SS Richie Martin from the Oakland A’s.  A 2015 first-round pick, Martin hit .257 in four minor league seasons – but .300-6-42, with 25 steals at Double A Midland last season.  Given the Orioles’ situation, he could end up the starting shortstop in 2018.

PLAYER TO WATCH

In 2018, DH Chris Davis his .168-16-49 in 128 games.  Here’s a guy who just three seasons ago (2016) hit 38 home runs. He also has a 50+ HR season and a pair of 200+ strikeout seasons on his resume.  I’m anxious to see what happens next.

COMING UP – THE AL CENTRAL

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Baseball Roundtable Preview Week – Day Three – National League West

PrfeiewWe’re now at about the middle of BBRT’s 2019 Preview Week – and today we are taking a look at the National League West.   Things, as I’ve noted before, can change – particularly since there are still some “difference makers” out there on the free-agent market (Like Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel). Over the week, BBRT will look at each MLB Division, and then wrap up with predictions for the major awards (ROY, CYA, MVP).   We started with the National League and are moving from East to West (Division-wise).  Keep in mind, these are just BBRT’s opinions and conjecture – not the result of any inside insight or info.

For the  NL East Preview, click here.

For the NL Central, click here. 

For the AL East, click here.

For the AL Central, click here.

For the AL West, click here.

For the major awards, click here.

After each divisional predicted order of finish – for those who want more detail or justification – I’ll move on to a team-by-team evaluation.  Keep in mind, these are just BBRT’s opinions and conjecture – not the result of any inside insight or info.

NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST

Dodgers

Rockies

Padres

Diamondbacks

Giants

The Dodgers, despite a quiet off season (more departures than arrivals) are in a good position to repeat as NL West champions.  They have the division’s best pitching staff pretty much returning en masse. (In 2018, the Dodgers had the NL’s best team earned run average at 3.38.) They also return most of a lineup that led the NL in runs scored (804) and home runs (235).  The only team that looks in a position to challenge LA is the Rockies, who won 91 games a year ago and, like the Dodgers, area pretty much putting the band back together for another run. The Diamondbacks are likely to regress a bit – after trading Paul Goldschmidt and losing A.J. Pollock and Patrick Corbin to free agency. In fact, the Padres could move up to third place this season – as the acquisition of Manny Machado should make the whole lineup better. Still, San Diego’s pitching is young and unproven.  The Padres would really benefit from signing Dallas Keuchel to bolster the rotation and tutor the young staff.   The Giants do not seem to be aging well. I wouldn’t be surprised to see an influx of youngsters in San Francisco (via call up or trade) as the season progresses.

DODGERS – First Place

Clayton Kershaw’s left shoulder question mark – that’s worth and exclamation point.  Ouch!  The Dodger ace may not be ready for Opening Day.  Then again, this is a Dodger team that made it to the World Series despite losing notable time from its starting shortstop (and arguably best position player) Corey Seager, its starting third baseman Justin Turner and the leader of its starting rotation Clayton Kershaw.  Fortunately, for the Dodgers, they play in the NL West – as a whole not nearly as active in the off-season trade/free-agent market as the NL East or Central.  Short story, nobody really positioned themselves to gain significant ground, and the Dodgers have the depth to repeat.

Despite the departure (via trade) of Yasiel Puig (and his 23 home runs and 15 steals), the Dodgers outfield is set to be competitive – led by right fielder Cody Bellinger (.260-25-76, with 14 steals). Free-agent signee A.J. Pollock should man center – and replace the offense lost with the trade of Puig.  Last season, with the D-backs, Pollock hit .257-21-65, with 13 steals in 113 games for the D-backs.  Joc Pederson (.248-25-56) will be back in left field.

PUT ME IN COACH.  I’M READY TO PLAY

Enrique “Kiki” Hernandez gives the Dodgers insurance at several positions – and lineup flexibility when they need it.  Last season, Hernandez started 44 games in CF; 22 at 2B; 17 at SS; seven in RF; seven at 1B; five in LF; and two at 3B. He filled those many roles, while hitting .256-21-52.  Oh, he also took the mound (in relief) for 1/3 of an inning.

The Dodgers are counting on a healthy Corey Seager. Photo by apardavila

The Dodgers are counting on a healthy Corey Seager.
Photo by apardavila

Look for Corey Seager (who had Tommy John and hip surgeries and played just 26 games a year ago) to be back at SS early in the season. If healthy, Seager is good for a .300-25-75 line. Also returning, after an injury-shortened 2018, should be 3B Justin Turner. Last season, Turner hit .312-14-52 in 103 games (after .322-21-71 in 130 games the previous season.)  Turner’s return to 3B should free up the surprising Max Muncy to move to 1B.  Muncy hit .263-35-79 in 137 games a year ago – and, while another 35-HR season does not seem likely, 25 dingers would be no surprise. Like so many Dodgers, Muncy offers lineup flexibility.  Last season he started games as 1B, 3B and 2B. Chris Taylor (.254-17-63) should see plenty of time at 2B, although having Hernandez and Muncy available will enable the Dodgers to continue their past platooning strategies. (Taylor can also play OF, as can Muncy.)  The loss of Yasmani Grandal leaves Austin Barnes to handle the bulk of the catching. Veteran Russell Martin is available to back up Barnes.

On the mound, Clayton Kershaw, at 30, is beginning to show signs of wear and tear – evidenced by back and shoulder trouble and a couple of mph lost off the fastball.  Still, he went 9-5, 2.73 in 26 starts a year ago – and the Dodgers are looking for him to improve upon that in 2018.  A healthy Kershaw would be a big boost to LA.  Even if he’s not ready at the start of the season (and it’s starting to look like he won’t be), there are quality arms in the rotation: Veteran Rich Hill (11-5, 3.66); southpaw Hyun-Jin Ryu (7-3, 1.97); Walker Buehler (8-5, 2.62); Kenta Maeda (8-10, 3.81); and Ross Stripling (8-6, 3.02). Keep in mind, a year ago – despite having seven different pitches start at least 15 games and only two start at least 25 – the Dodgers’ starters put up an NL-best 3.19 ERA.

The bullpen will again be led by closer Kenley Jansen – who saved 38 games a year ago.  Getting the ball to Jansen will be newcomer, free-agent Joe Kelly (4-2, 4.39 for Boston last season, with 68 whiffs in 65 2/3 innings); Josh Fields (2-2, 2.20, with two saves in 45 appearances); and Pedro Baez (4-3, 2.88 in 55 appearances). Kelly, by the way, came up with a rather unusual injury in early March – back tightness from standing too long preparing a Cajun Crayfish Boil.  He says he’ll be ready to go on schedule.

Overall, the Dodgers’ depth – and lack of off-season action by the Western Division teams chasing them – should lead to a repeat.

KEY OFF-SEASON MOVE

The Dodgers were not very busy this off-season (at least in terms of MLB-ready players brought in, as opposed to sent out).  They did sign A.J. Pollock to handle center field. Entering his eighth MLB season, Pollock helps fill a need created by the Dodgers’ trade of Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp.

PLAYER TO WATCH

BBRT will be keeping an eye on Alex Verdugo. The 23-year-old may force his way into the outfield picture before the season ends – which would be a good thing for the Dodgers. Last season, he hit .329-10-44, with eight steals, in 91 games at Triple A and .260 in 37 games after the Dodgers called him up.  In five minor-league seasons (512 games), he’s hit .309, with 41 home runs, 271 RBI and 44 steals.  When he’s ready, the Dodgers will be even more versatile – and even better offensively.

____________________________________________

ROCKIES – Second Place

In 2018, the Rockies gave the Dodgers a run for their money in the NL West, forcing them to a Game 163 for the division title. If any team in the West can challenge the Dodgers this season, it will again be the Rockies.  However, I just don’t think they can match the Dodgers’ depth – in the lineup or the rotation.  Second place looks like the ceiling for Colorado.

Nolan Arenado - BBRT's current favorite player -offer a combination of leather and lumber. Photo by jenniferlinneaphotography

Nolan Arenado – BBRT’s current favorite player -offers a combination of leather and lumber. Photo by jenniferlinneaphotography

The Rockies’ Big Three Plus One (returnees Charlie Blackmon, Nola Arenado and Trevor Story – plus free-agent signee Daniel Murphy) will be expected to carry the offense – and they offer both quality and balance. LF  and leadnoff  hitter Blackmon put up a .291-29-70 season from the left-hander’s side of the plate, while righty 3B Nolan Arenado (a six-time Gold Glover and three-time home run leader) went .297-38-110.  Newcomer 1B Daniel Murphy bats left and went .299-12-42 in 91 games for games for the Cubs and Nationals. He adds a quality bat to the Rockies’ lineup – having hit under .280 just once in ten seasons and having topped 20 home runs twice.  He should put up some big numbers at Coors, where his career average is .330.  Finally, SS Trevor Story (a righty) – went .291-37-108. Story is also a plus defender.  That’s a pretty good start to any offense.

It thins out a bit after the Big Three Plus One, but there is still some pop.  Joining Blackmon in the outfield will David Dahl (.273-16-48) and Ian Desmond (.236-22-80). Second base looks like a contest (or platoon) involving left-handed hitting Ryan McMahon and righty Garrett Hampson.  I lean toward Hampson, who hit .275 in a late season call up (24 games) and has a .315 average over three minor league seasons. The Rockies will miss departed free agent DJ  LeMahieu’s bat (a .298 average over eight MLB seasons) and Gold Glove defense.  Chris Ianetta (.224-11-36 in 110 games) should get the bulk of the catching assignments. Overall, it a solid offense, just not as deep or as versatile as the Dodgers.

In 2018, Rockies starting pitchers stayed on the mound for

a National League-leading 932 innings.

The Rockies’ rotation should again be a point of strength. It’s led by lefty Kyle Freeland (17-7, 2.85 in 33 starts). German Marquez – just 24-years-old – put it all together in 2018, going 14-11, 3.77 and fanning 230 batters in 196 innings. He could be even better in 2019. Rounding out the rotation should be Tyler Anderson (7-9, 4.55), Jon Gray (12-9, 5.12) and Antonio Senzatela (6-6, 4.38). The Rox would like to see a rebound from Gray, who was 10-4, 3.67 in 2017.

Ah, the bullpen, there’s the rub. The Rockies’ bullpen ERA (4.62) was the highest in the Division and third-highest in the league.  Couple that with the fact that they lost one of their most effective (and most often called upon) relievers in Adam Ottavino (6-4, 2.43, with six saves in 75 appearances) to free agency and you have an issue.  Going into 2018, Wade Davis (3-6, 4.13, with 43 saves will be back at closer.  Others getting significant innings should include Seung Hwan Oh (2-0, 2.53 in 25 appearances), Scott Oberg (8-1, 2.45 in 56 games) and Bryan Shaw (4-6, 5.93 in 61 appearances).

Look for the Rockies to be in the race, but also look for a lack of lineup depth and a thin bullpen to keep them from unseating the Dodgers.

KEY OFF-SEASON MOVE

BBRT believes the most significant Rockies’ off-season move was letting reliever Adam Ottavino get away (free agency).  On the plus side, it was signing Daniel Murphy –a .330 career hitter at Coors Field to pay 1B.

PLAYER TO WATCH

Jon Gray may be essential to the Rockies’ chances for another post-season (Wild Card) appearance, The question is whether the 27-year-old Gray will be more like the 25-year-old Gray (3.67 ERA) or the 26-year-old version (5.12 ERA). Gray looked good in early Spring Training (just one run in his first nine innings).

____________________________________________

DIAMONDBACKS – Third Place

The Diamondbacks went 82-79 a year ago – and that was before the departures of Paul Goldschmidt (trade); A.J. Pollock (free agency); Patrick Corbin (free agency); and Brad Boxberger (free agency).  Think about it.  In Goldschmidt, they lost a Gold Glove defender, who was also their 2018 leader in home runs and number-two on the team in batting average and RBI.  In Boxberger, they lost their saves leader and, in Corbin, their leader in ERA (among starters) and strikeouts. Pollock was the starting CF, who also contributed 21 home runs and 13 steals.  The off season additions did not match the subtractions.  I look for the Diamondbacks to have to work to stay above .500.

There is still some strength at the top of the rotation with the ZG-men Zack Greinke (15-11, 3.21) and Zach Godley (15-11, 4.74), who combined for 65 starts and close to 400 innings a year ago. Robbie Ray (6-2, 3.93), who started just 24 games due to an oblique injury, has shown both swing-and-miss stuff (12 strikeouts per nine innings last season) and miss-the-plate stuff (5.1 walks per nine).  Still he was an All Star and 15-game winner in 2017, so there is plenty of potential (and he’s a southpaw, which adds to his value). Newcomers Luke Weaver (trade) and Merrill Kelly (free agent) should fill the four and five spots. Weaver was 7-11, 4.95 for the Cardinals; while Kelly had a solid season in Korea (16-7, 3.60, with 189 whiffs in 190 innings). In five U.S. minor league seasons, the 29-year-old put up a 39-26, 3.40 record.  It could be the D-backs are onto something here.  Overall, it should be a rotation that can keep the Diamondbacks in ball games.

In 2018, the Diamondbacks had the NL’s third-best earned run average (3.72) and third-most strikeouts (1,448) – the pitching still looks solid in 2018.  A year ago, however, the D-backs were ninth in the league in runs scored and seventh in home runs – and they lost their best hitter (Paul Goldschmidt).

There are some questions in the bullpen, where it looked like top setup man Archie Bradley and his 96-mph fastball were set to take over. Then the Diamondbacks signed free-agent Greg Holland, who led the NL in saves as recently as 2017. It will be interesting to see who gets the bulk of the saves.  Ideally, for the Diamondbacks, it would seem best if Holland (who has had some struggles this spring) would come around and enable Arizona to keep Bradley in his proven setup role. Among other key bullpen members: Yoshihisa Hirano (4-3, 2.44 in 75 appearances) and Andrew Chafin (1-6, 3.10 in 77 games).

On offense, Arizona will rely heavily on LF David Peralta to repeat his .293-30-87 numbers of 2018.  Their only other proven power source seems to be versatile 3B Eduardo Escobar (.272-23-84 for the Twins and Diamondbacks). If they are going to move up in the standings, the D-backs will need a lot more from 1B Jake Lamb (.222-6-31 in 56 games a year ago). Lamb did hit .248, with 59 home runs and 196 RBI in 2016-17, so there is bounce back potential. Others in the lineup should include: Ketel Marte in CF (as well as playing some middle infield), who went .260-14-59, and Steven Souza, Jr. (.220-5-29 in 72 games) in RF. Souza does have a 30-home run season on his resume (2017 for the Rays), but 15-20 seems a more likely ceiling. The D-backs added some flexibility, signing free-agent OF Adam Jones, who went .281-15-63 for Baltimore, but has shown 25-homer power.  (which could free Martel up for more infield innings).  The infield should fill out with free-agent signee Wilmer Flores (.267-11-51 for the Mets) at 2B and Nick Ahmed (.234-16-70) at SS.

The Diamondbacks should have enough pitching to keep them from fading into the bottom of the division, but there just doesn’t seem to be enough offense to close the gap on the Dodgers and Rockies.

KEY OFF-SEASON MOVE

Let’s face it, trading six-time all Star Paul Goldschmidt was the most significant move the Diamondbacks made.  The face of the franchise has changed – and the Diamondbacks need someone to step up on offense.

PLAYER TO WATCH

BBRT will be watching Merrill Kelly.  The 30-year-old right-hander went to Korea to find another five-to-seven mph on his fastball and earn a ticket back to a major-league roster. Last year in Korea, Kelly went 16-7, 3.60.  And, in the past he has shown potential at other levels.  In two Triple A seasons (in the Rays’ system), he went 17-8, 2.94.  It will be interesting to see if he is the next Mike Mikolas, who came back after a 14-8 2.25 season in Japan (2017), to go 18-4, 2.83 for the Cardinals. 

________________________________________

PADRES – Fourth Place

Much ado about (Manny) Machado - the newest Padre. Photo by Keith Allison

Much ado about (Manny) Machado – the newest Padre.
Photo by Keith Allison

Much ado about Machado.  That sums up the Padres for 2019.  The Manny Machado signing should have a dramatic impact on the outlook and output in San Diego.  The fact is, Machado will not only bring Gold Glove defense to 3B, but his bat (.297-37-107 for the Orioles and Dodgers in 2017) will have a positive impact up and down the line up.  Key contributors to the energized Padres’ offense should include: Free-agent signee 2B Ian Kinsler (.240-14-48, with 16 steals for the Angels and Red Sox), a very professional bat; 1B Eric Hosmer (.253-18-69 for the Padres last year, but .318-25-94 for the Royals in 2017); and LF Wil Meyers (.253-11-39 in 83 games, but .243-30-72, with 20 steals in 2017).  I expect all three will improve on their 2018 numbers.  Joining Meyers in the OF will be a young player with tremendous upside:   23-year-old, 6’5”, 275-pound RF Franmil Reyes, who hit .280-16-31 in 87 games for the Padres – and poked 41 home runs in his last 193 minor league games.  Plus-defender Manuel Margot (.245-8-51, with 11 steals in 141 games) and Frenchy Cordero (.237-7-19 in 40 games) may both see time in CF. With Meyer moving back to the OF, Hunter Renfroe will likely get playing time as a fourth outfielder – despite hitting 26 home runs in each of the past two seasons.  He could be a great option off the bench when needed.

Shortstop will belong to Luis Urias, at least until top prospect Fernando Tatis Jr. is ready to fill that spot.  That is not expected to be a long wait, as Tatis – at age 20 – has hit .280 with 14 home runs, 143 RBI, 200 runs scored and 42 steals in three minor-league seasons (274 games). While Urias, just 22-years-old, hit only .208 in a late season call up, he’s shown a solid bat in the minors, averaging .306 over five minor league seasons.  A future middle infield of Tatis at short and Urias at second seems in the cards for the Padres. The bulk of the catching will be handled by Austin Hedges (.231-14-37).   No doubt, the Padres will put a lot more runners on the bases and runs on the scoreboard in 2018.

In 2018, the Padres scored the third-fewest runs in the NL (617) and gave up the third-most (767).  They addressed the scoring drought, but did little to improve the pitching.

In 2018, the Padres did not have a single pitcher with more than eight wins and their starters put up a league-worst 5.09 ERA.  In the off-season, the Padres signed free-agent Garret Richards (Angels), recovering from Tommy John surgery.  Richards signed a two-year deal and is not likely to pitch for the Padres until late in the 2019 season – and that’s a best-case scenario.  It makes a pretty convincing case for the Padres focusing on 2020 as the year they move into contention.

Looking at the San Diego pitching staff – the rotation is all about youth and potential. Southpaw Joey Lucchesi likely will lead the rotation.  The 26-year-old was 8-9, 4.08 in 26 starts 2018 (his first MLB season) – and despite a 90-mph fastball, notched 145 strikeouts in 130 innings. In three minor-league seasons, Lucchesi put up a 2.25 ERA in 187 2/3 innings.  Another southpaw, Robbie Erlin, will also be near the top of the rotation. The 27-year-old has spent part of six seasons with the Padres and is 13-19, 4.40 over that time.  He’s a still an unproven arm – and also underwent Tommy John surgery in 2016 (missed the 2017 season). Like Lucchesi, Erlin relies more on location and change of speed than pure power. Next up may be yet another southpaw – 24-year-old Eric Lauer.  Lauer was 6-7, 4.34 as a rookie in 2018, but put up a 2.93 ERA in 37 minor league appearances.  Another candidate for the rotation is 23-year-old righty Chris Paddack, who was 7-3, 2.10 in 17 minor-league starts last season (120 strikeouts in 90 innings). Given the shape of the Padres’ pitching options, he could make the jump from Double A. In the wings are Luis Perdoma (1-6, 7.05 in 12 games/10 starts); Bryan Mitchell (2-4, 5.42 in 16 games/11 starts); and Jacob Nix (2-5, 7.01). There seems to be a real possibility that the Padres will make some use of the Rays’ “opener” strategy – and turn some contests over to a committee of relievers.

If any team could use the still unsigned (as of this writing) Dallas Keuchel, it’s the Padres.  Not only would he bring some MLB experience to a very inexperienced staff, the two-time All Star, 2015 AL Cy Young Award winner and four-time Gold Glover would be a good mentor for the Padres’ young mounds men. Consider, the six most likely (at least in BBRT’s view) starters for the Padres have a total of 104 MLB starts (an average of 17 career starts each).  Keuchel has 183 career starts in seven seasons. The Padres could use this guy.

The bullpen is a bit more experienced than the rotation – and it better be. Kirby Yates (5-3, 2.14, with 12 saves) will garner most of the save opportunities. Also playing key roles will be Craig Stammen (8-3, 2.73 in 73 appearances last season); Matt Strahm (3-4, 2.05 in 41 appearances); and Robert Stock (1-1, 2.50 in 32 games).  The San Diego bullpen pitched the most innings of any NL relief staff in 2018 – and put up the third-best ERA (3.53) and second-best strikeouts per nine innings (10.2.)  The pen should be strength again.

KEY OFF-SEASON MOVE

Pretty easy one here – the Manny Machado signing should have a positive impact on offensive performance and attitude. 

PLAYER TO WATCH

I’d keep an eye on 23-year-old Franmil Reyes – at 6’5” /275-pounds, he could develop into the Padres’ version of Aaron Judge. In just over half a season (87 games) with the Padres in 2018, he hit .280, with 16 long balls and 31 RBI.  (Like Judge he also “misses” a lot – 80 whiffs in 87 games). Before his call up, Reyes was .324-16-52 in 58 games at Triple A. He should give the fans a few thrills this coming season.

__________________________________________

GIANTS – Fifth Place

The Giants won only 73 games (89 losses) a year ago – and did not take any notable actions to right the ship.  Keep in mind, this is a team that outscored and out-homered only Miami in the National League.

In 2018 the Giants’ Triple Crown was split among Buster Posey (Batting average .285); Evan Longoria (Home Runs – 16); and Andrew McCutchen (RBI-55).

Buster Posey - Face of the Giants.

Buster Posey – Face of the Giants.

Let’s look at the offense for 2019. This middle of the order will go to some combination of C Buster Posey, 1B Brandon Belt, 3B Evan Longoria and SS Brandon Crawford (notice no corner OF in that list).  Posey (.284-5-41 in 2018) is a six-time All Star and career .306 hitter – but he is 32-years-old, has started nearly 900 games crouching behind the plate and is coming off knee surgery.  Belt (.253-14-46) also faced injury issues in 2018 (appendectomy and knee surgery). He is a solid hitter, capable of better when healthy. He has, however, played at least 150 games only twice in eight MLB seasons. Brandon Crawford provides solid defense at shortstop and can be counted on for double-digit home runs (.254-14-54); while Longoria had some trouble adjusting to spacious AT&T Park (.244-16-54 in his first season as a Giant). Longoria missed time due to a fractured hand (played just 125 games) – and ended up with career lows in average, home runs and RBI.  The Giants are looking for more out of the 33-year-old, who averaged 144 games, .270, 26 home runs and 89 RBI in his ten seasons with Tampa Bay.

Joe Panik is slated for 2B – and he also missed time in 2018 due to injury (groin and thumb). In 125 games, Panik hit .254-24).  In four full MLB seasons, he has average just 118 games per campaign. Then there is that outfield. The Giants signed free agent Gerardo Parra (Rockies) to bring some experience to an otherwise quite raw group of fly chasers.  Parra offers a steady bat, but not much power (.284-6-53, with 11 steals for the Rockies). Expect him to get the bulk of the time in LF.  Steven Duggar will be back in CF. Duggar was called up last July and showed good speed and solid defensive skills, but hit just .255-2-17 (with a .303 on-base percentage). The RF spot looks to belong to one of:  Mac Williamson; Austin Slater; and Chris Shaw (all relatively unproven at the MLB level).

The pitching staff has also faced the injury bug.  The acknowledged staff leader, southpaw Madison Bumgarner was 6-7, 3.26 in 21 starts, after suffering a broken metacarpal on his pitching hand.  Jeff Samardzija went 1-5, 6.25 in ten starts (shoulder); and Johnny Cueto (3-2, 3.23 in nine starts) suffered through elbow issues that led to Tommy John surgery in August. Cueto is not likely to see a major league mound until September.  It’s not all bad news, however.  Joining Bumgarner and Samardzija the rotation, you can expect to see promising 27-year-old righty Derek Rodriguez (6-4, 2.81 in 21 games/19 starts as a rookie) and lefty Derek Holland (7-9, 3.57, with 169 strikeouts in 171 1/3 innings). Also in the mix are free-agent signee Drew Pomeranz (2-6, 6.08 with Boston, but a 17-game winner in 2017); Andrew Suarez; and Chris Stratton.

The bullpen will be led by closer Will Smith (2-3, 2.55, 14 saves, with 71 strikeouts in 53 innings). Also in-line for critical innings are Mark Melancon (3.23 in 41 appearances), Tony Watson (2.59 in 72 appearances) and Sam Dyson (2.69 in 74 appearances).  The pen should be a strength, provided they can be handed a lead often enough.  That’s not a given.

KEY OFF-SEASON MOVE

Not much action here.  I’m going to go with the signing of Drew Pomeranz. Just 2-6, 6.08 for Boston (injuries) last season, Pomeranz was a 17-game winner in 2017.  The Giants would like to see a rebound.

PLAYER TO WATCH

Outfielder Austin Slater (26-years-old) may be on the cusp of full-time big-league work. In 2017-18, he hit .263-4-39 in 108 games for the Giants.  In five minor league seasons, he has hit .313 in 357 games – including .344 in 53 games at Triple A Sacramento last season. He has a .319 average in three Triple A seasons, so he doesn’t have anything to prove in the minors. 

TOMORROW – AMERICAN LEAGUE EAST

 

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Baseball Roundtable Preview Week – Day Two – NL Central

The season is almost upon us and it’s time for some BBRT predictions. Things, of course, can change – particularly since there are still some “difference makers” out there on the free-agent market (Like Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel). Over the coming week, BBRT will look at each MLB Division, and then wrap up with predictions for the major awards (ROY, CYA, MVP).   We’re starting with the National League, going from East to West (Division-wise).  Today, we are looking at the NL Central Division.  For the  NL East Preview, click here.   Tomorrow: National League West.

After each divisional predicted order of finish – for those who want more detail or justification – I’ll move on to a team-by-team evaluation.  Keep in mind, these are just BBRT’s opinions and conjecture – not the result of any inside insight or info.

For the NL East, click here.

For the NL West, click here.

For the AL East, click here.

For the AL Central, click here.

For the AL West, click here. 

For the major awards, click here.

NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL

Cardinals

Cubs (Wild Card)

Brewers

Pirates

Reds

In 2018, the Cardinals offense was right up there with the Cubs and Brewers. Eliminating the Cubs/Brewers Game 163 the Cardinals scored 759 runs, the Cubs 760 and Brewers 751.  Then the Cardinals went out and traded for six-time All Star first baseman Paul Goldschmidt – who will improve their offense and defense.  The Redbirds also bolstered their bullpen with free agent Andrew Miller; while the Cubs and Brewers were less active in the off-season market. I think this will be enough to put the Cardinals on top of what may be MLB’s best – and most competitive – division.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see just a couple of games separating the top three teams (or another Game 163). Really, you could pick the Cardinals, Cubs or Brewers and make a good case. The Pirates and Reds will be watching this race.  (Although the Reds did add some key players – particularly in their trade with the Dodgers – like Yasiel Puig, Matt Kemp Tanner, Roark and Alex Wood.

Now, let’s take a team-by-team look at the Central Division.

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Cardinals – First place

Paul Goldschmidt ... will lead Redbirds back to the top.Photo by Keith Allison

Paul Goldschmidt … will lead Redbirds back to the top.Photo by Keith Allison

We heard and read a lot about the signings of Manny Machado and Bryce Harper, but let’s not forget another marquis off-season move – the Cardinals trading for 1B Paul Goldschmidt – a six-time All Star, three-time Gold Glover and four-time Silver Slugger.

Goldschmidt hit .290-33-83 last season (Diamondbacks) and there is no reason not to expect similar numbers as a Redbird.  The fact is, Goldschmidt will improve both the Cardinals’ offense and their infield defense (enabling the move of Matt Carpenter back to 3B.) Keeping in mind that the Cardinals won 88 games without Goldy’s big bat a season ago, you can see why BBRT likes the Cardinals to finish atop the NL Central.

In 2018, Cardinals’ first basemen committed 20 errors in 162 contests, new first sacker  Paul Goldschmidt has committed a total of 20 errors since July 5, 2014  (652 games played).

Goldschmidt joins an already potent lineup that includes: LF Marcell Ozuna (.280-23-88 a year ago); 3B Matt Carpenter (.257-36-81); and RF Jose Martinez (.305-17-83). Note:  The Cardinals have a significant investment in Dexter Fowler, but BBRT does not seem him unseating Martinez – although others disagree.  If Fowler does bounce back – he hit .180 in a season shortened by a fractured foot – it give the Cardinals more lineup, pinch-hitting and substitution options.  Not an insignificant thing in the NL.  CF belongs to 25-year-old Harrison Bader, who is a plus defender and hit .264-12-37, with 15 steals, in his first full MLB season. Look for his glove and speed to keep him in the lineup – at the seventh or eighth spot.

Yadier Molina (.251-20-74 and a nine-time Gold Glover, including 2018) is back behind the plate.  The 36-year-old may need a little more rest, but he shows no signs of slowing down.  Also playing in the middle will be plus defender Kolten Wong (.249-9-38) at 2B and SS Paul DeJong (.241-19-68). The 25-year-old DeJong hit .285-25-65 in 108 games in his 2017 rookie season – and could improve on his 2018 numbers. The versatile Jedd Gyorko (.262-11-47) provides backup around the diamond.  Last year, he saw started games at 1B, 2B and 3B and even took a turn on the mound.

The pitching rotation is headed by Miles Mikolas – who spent 2015-17 in Japan, where he went 28-13, 2.18.  Mikolas went 18-4, 2.83 for the Cardinals and looks to be the real deal. The number–two spot goes to 23-year-old Jack Flaherty (8-9, 3.34 in 28 starts). There is also plenty of quality in the rest of the rotation – as well as potential health issues.  Depending on health, the remaining three spots will come from among: Michael Wacha (8-2, 3.20 in 15 starts last season); Adam Wainwright (2-4. 4.46 in eight starts); John Gant (7-6, 3.47 in 19 starts); and Alex Gomber (6-2, 4.44 in 29 appearances/11 starts).  The Cardinals will also be watching the progress of Carlos Martinez (8-6, 3.11 in 33 appearances/18 starts), who is expected start the season on the IL (shoulder). The point here is that the Cardinals, whose 3.52 starter’s ERA was the NL Central’s best and the NL’s third-best, have plenty of arms to choose from.  The rotation should prove an asset (and those that don’t fill in starting roles will provide bullpen strength and backup in case health issues emerge).

Speaking of the bullpen, the Cardinals added depth with free-agent (Indians) Andrew Miller (2-4, 4.24 in 37 appearances.) Miller suffered through some shoulder issues last season, but the Cardinals say he is healthy going into 2019.  If that’s the case, he will be a great asset in key innings. In the four seasons from 2014-17, Miller went 22-11, 1.72, with 51 saves in 260 appearances. Coming from the right side, the Cardinals will look to Jordan Hicks – perhaps MLB’s hardest-throwing pitcher. (Statcast credits Hicks with 15 of the 20 fastest pitches of 2018, with a high of 105.1 mph.) Hicks Hick went 3-4, 3.59 in 73 games a year ago, fanning 70 batter in 77 2/3 innings. Other likely contributors include Dakota Hudson, Luke Gregerson and Brett Cecil. The bullpen is definitely set to close out games.

KEY OFF-SEASON MOVE

Clearly, the Cardinals improved significantly – on offense and defense – by adding Paul Goldschmidt.  

PLAYER TO WATCH

BBRT will be watching Dakota Hudson and John Gant (a pair of right-handed pitchers) with interest – to see just how they fit into the Cardinals’ plans.  Gant (a 26-year-old righty) went 7-6, 3.47 in 26 appearances (19 starts) for the Cardinals last season. He was 5-1, 1.65 at Triple A in 2018 and 44-28, 3.28 over eight minor league campaigns. The 24-year-old Hudson went 4-1, 2.63 in 26 appearances for the Redbirds.   He could fit into the bullpen (as he did last year), but has perhaps more potential as a starter. At Triple A last season, Hudson went 13-3, 2.50 in 19 starts.   Both these pitchers appear to have the potential to deliver the goods for the Cardinals.

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CUBS – Second Place

Javier Baez ... possibly the NL's best second baseman. Photo by DandreaPhotography

Javier Baez … possibly the NL’s best second baseman. Photo by DandreaPhotography

The Cubs’ strength starts at the corner infield spots.  First baseman Anthony Rizzo (.283-25-101) is one of MLB’s most reliable power sources – and, when he’s healthy, Kris Bryant can claim that same distinction.  Unfortunately, shoulder issues limited Bryant to 102 games (.272-13-52). If he stays in the lineup, he should return to numbers closer to .290-30-90. Joining the infield power party is 2B/SS Javier Baez (.290-34-111), who just seems to keep getting better (14 homers in 2016, 23 in 2017, 34 in 2018). If Baez improves his plate disciple (29 walks and 167 whiffs last season), look out!  (Note: Baez is likely to start the season at SS, due to Addison Russell’s suspension.) Filling out the infield, at 2B, will be versatile veteran Ben Zobrist (.305-9-58) in 139 games.  When Zobrist spends time in the outfield, free-agent signee (D-backs) Daniel Descalso (.238-13-57) in 138 games will fill in at the second sack.  The catching will be handled by the capable Wilson Contreras (.249-10-54).

The outfield belongs to: LF Kyle Schwarber (.238-26-61) – a solid power source, who also struck out in about one-third of his 2018 at bats; RF  Jason Heyward (.270-8-57) – an average hitter, but a five-time Gold Glover; and CF Albert Almora, Jr. (.286-5-41) – another solid defender (but also a free swinger, with 24 walks against 83 strikeouts in 2018).

Over the past four seasons, the Cubs have averaged 98 wins a campaign. 

The Cubs look to a veteran pitching staff to get them to the late innings.  It starts with southpaw Jon Lester, in his 14th MLB season, who led the NL with 18 wins (six losses) last season, with a 3.32 ERA. Then there is Cole Hamels, also in his 14th MLB campaign, who went 9-12, 3.78 for Texas and the Cubs. Filling out the rotation are a pair of 29-year-olds:  righty Kyle Hendricks (14-11, 3.44) and southpaw Jose Quintana (13-11. 4.03). A kind of a wild card is Yu Darvish, who had elbow surgery last September  (1-3, 4.95 in eight starts), but is a four-time All Star with top of the rotation stuff when healthy. At 32-years-old, you wonder a bit about how he will bounce back.

The bullpen should be headed by closer Brandon Morrow (0-0, 1.47, with 22 saves last season). Morrow, however is rehabbing from off-season elbow surgery and likely will not be ready until May. Pedro Strop seems the most likely (6-1, 2.28, 13 saves) to step in. In addition, Steve Cishek (4-3, 2.18 in 80 games) and Brandon Kintzler (3-3, 4.60 in 70 games) both have closer experience. Carl Edwards, Jr. (3-2, 2.60 in 58 games) should also get plenty of work.  Still, the uncertainty in the bullpen is a slight worry.

KEY OFF -SEASON MOVE

The Cubs were not very active in the off-season, but did bring in free-agent infielder Daniel Descalso (Diamondbacks) to provide some flexibility as they deal with the Addison Russell suspension.

PLAYER TO WATCH

Keep an eye on Yu Darvish, coming back from elbow surgery.  If he rebounds, the Cubs rotation suddenly gets a lot more effective.  A healthy Darvish – a four-time All Star –  could give the Cubs 12-15 wins. 

the Cubbies will remain in the NL Central dog fight (Cardinal, Cubs and Brewers).  BBRT just thinks the Cardinals may have a slight edge in defense, plate discipline and pitching.

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BREWERS – Third Place

Wow!  The Brewers surprised a lot of people in 2018 and, no doubt, they’ll be in the hunt again.  They will do it with a combination of:

  • Power bats.   In the NL, only the Dodgers hit more home runs, with 235, than the Brewers, with 218. There is no reason to expect the Brewers not to reach 200 round trippers again.
  • Power arms in the bullpen.  The Brewers’ relief staff had the NL’s second-best earned run average (3.47 to the Cubs 3.35), second-most innings pitched (614 to the Padres 635) and best strikeouts-per-nine-inning ratio (10.38).

The players who put up the above numbers are, for the most part, back.  The question mark for the Brew Crew is the starting rotation (after Jhoulys Chacin) and whether all that work will eventually catch up with the pen.   Let’s take a look, starting with the offense.

MVP Christian Yelich will again lead the Brewers' offense. Photo by DandreaPhotography

MVP Christian Yelich will again lead the Brewers’ offense.
Photo by DandreaPhotography

The Brewers have a potent offense – up and down the lineup – and the focal point is RF Christian Yelich, the 2018 NL MVP, who had a career year.  In his sixth season (at age 26), Yelich won the batting title with a career-high .326 average and also reached new career marks in hits (187), runs scored (118), home runs (36), RBI (110) and stolen bases (22). It might be a bit unfair to expect him to repeat those numbers, but he will remain a force in the lineup. Lorenzo Cain, who hit a career-high .308, is back in center field and the lead off spot. Cain scored 90 runs and stole a career-high 30 bases.  Ryan Braun (LF/1B) adds some pop (.254-20-64) and will probably see time in both corner outfield spots and third base.  Newcomer Ben Gamel (trade with Mariners) and returnee Eric Thames are the leading backups (Thames with more power, Gamel with the steadier bat).

Plenty offense around the infield as well. At the corners, there are Travis Shaw at third base (.241-32-86) and Jesus Aguilar (.274-35-108) at first. Both Shaw and Aguilar notched career highs in long balls in 2018. Mike Moustakas is back to play 2B, coming off a .251-28-95 season for the Royals and Brewers.  Orlando Arcia (24-years-old and entering his fourth MLB season) will handle shortstop.  He got off to a slow start, but came on in the second half to finish .268-3-30 in 119 games.  He has notable upside, having gone .277-15-53, with 14 steals in 2017.  Look for him to finish somewhere in the middle of those two stat lines. The Brewers filled a big need at catcher when they signed free-agent Yasmani Grandal (Dodgers) – a veteran backstop with power (more on that signing later).

Jhoulys Chacin (15-8, 3.50) leads the rotation – and was the only starter with more than nine wins.  The rest of the staff looks to be Zach Davies (looking to bounce back after shoulder issues limited him to 13 starts and 2-7, 4.77 record); Chase Anderson (9-8, 3.93); Jimmy Nelson (who missed all of 2018 rehabbing from shoulder surgery, but did go 12-6, 3.49 in 2017); and Brian Woodruff (3-0, 3.61 with the Brewers – after 3-2, 4.04 at Triple A).  If any of these falter, a couple of young arms are looking to step up:  24-year-old Corbin Burnes (7-0, 2.61 in 30 relief appearances) and 23-year-old Freddy Peralto (6-4, 4.25 in 16 appearances/14 starts).

One thing seems for sure.  The Brewers’ bullpen will get a lot of work – and it’s a good one.  The Brewers’ pen is led by three pitchers with closer stuff:  Corey Knebel (4-3, 3.58, with 16 saves and 88 strikeouts in 55 1/3 innings); Josh Hader (6-1, 2.43, 12 saves and 143 strikeouts in 81 1/3 innings); and Jeremy Jeffress (8-1, 1.29, 15 saves, with 89 strikeouts in 76 2/3 innings).  Long story short, the Brewers have plenty of bullpen weapons; let’s just hope overwork doesn’t lead them to run out of ammo.

The Brewers have a lot going for them.  However, three things have BBRT placing them third; 1) The starting pitching; 2) The continuing workload that could face the bullpen; 3) The fact that so much went right in 2018 (so many “career high marks,” more than can be expected in 2019.  Then again, the Brewers pulled of the unexpected in 2018.  Who’s to say it can’t happen again.  No matter the outcome, the Brew Crew will make interesting.

 

KEY OFF-SEASON MOVE

The Brewer’s faced the 2019 season with a need to upgrade at the backstop position – adding seven-year veteran Yasmani Grandal’s potent (switch-hitting) bat to an already powerful lineup took care of that need.  The 30-year-old has topped 20 home runs in each of his last three campaigns (.241-24-68 for the Dodgers in 2018).

PLAYER TO WATCH

It makes sense to keep an eye on 29-year-old RHP Jimmy Nelson – coming back from shoulder surgery after missing all of the 2017 season. Nelson was 12-6, 3.49 in 2017 – fanning 199 batters in 174 1/3 innings. If his mid-90’s fastball and effective sinker are back, he could go a long way toward helping the Brewers repeat.  It will be interesting to see: 1) if he breaks camp with the team; and 2) if he starts the season in the bullpen or rotation.

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PIRATES – Fourth Place

Could the Pirates be the Brewers of 2019?  Pittsburgh plays in, arguably, the toughest division in baseball.  As a result, they tend to be overlooked.  But, the fact is, the Pirates have a pretty good ball club with solid pitching (in the rotation and the pen).  The club has some talent in the lineup, but absolutely needs to add some “punch” if they are going to move up in the standings. (The Pirates finished 13th in home runs and tenth in runs scored in the NL a year ago.) Still, this is a team that finished two games over .500 in 2018 – and won 16 of their last 24 games. Let’s take a look at the Buccos.

Chris Archer, a key member of the Pirates' strong rotation. Photo by rrescot

Chris Archer, a key member of the Pirates’ strong rotation. Photo by rrescot

The Pirates pitching can be a real strength – led by starters Chris Archer, Jameson Taillon and Trevor Williams. The “ace” of the staff is Jameson Taillon, who had a breakout season in 2018 (his third MLB campaign), going 14-10, 3.20.  Trevor Williams also looked strong in 2018 – 14-10, 3.11 in 31 starts.  The 30-year-old Archer is the veteran of the group (6-8, 4.31 in 27 starts).  Archer, acquired in a July trade (with the Rays), is a two-time All Star and looked good closing 2018. In his final five starts of the season, he went 2-1, 2.70, striking out 36 batters in 30 innings.  He’s look good this spring and may be ready to return to the form that has delivered a 3.63 ERA over his first six MLB seasons.  The rotation should be filled out from among Joe Musgrove (6-9, 4.06); Jordan Lyle (3-4, 4.11); and prospect Mitch Keller.  Keller, just 23, went 12-4, 3.48 at three minor league levels last season.

The bullpen looks solid, led by closer Felipe Vazquez – who went 4-2, 2.70 with 37 saves and 89 whiffs in 70 innings. Kela Keone, who has also shown closer stuff (he had 24 saves for the Rangers before being traded to the Pirates in late July), will pitch key innings, as will Richard Rodriguez (4-3, 2.47 in 63 games as a rookie.)

On offense, the Pirates look to be outgunned.  Last season, no one hit more than 23 home runs nor drove in more than 81 for the Pirates – and the player that reached those marks was Gregory Polanco (.254-23-81 in 130 games), who is recovering from shoulder surgery.  They do have a bonafide star in CF, where Starling Marte produced a .277 average with 20 home runs, 72 RBI and 33 steals. Joining him in the outfield are LF Corey Dickerson (.300-13-55, eight steals), who also brings plus defensive skills, and Lonnie Chisenhall (in right field until Polanco returns), who put up a .321-1-9 line in 29 games for the Indians.  The Pirates are looking for a rebound from 25-year-old 1B Josh Bell – who went .261-12-62, after hitting .255-26-90 in 2017. Second baseman Adam Frazier showed a little pop last season, .277-10-35 in 113 games.  The likely lead-off man, Frazier needs to solve some road woes (he hit .336 at home and .230 on the road). His 2018 home/road numbers reflect his career splits (.306/.258). SS will go to either Erik Gonzalez (.265-1-16 in 81 games with the Indians) or Kevin Newman (.209-0-6 in 31 games.); while 3B belongs to Colin Moran (.277-11-58).  Moran may be spelled against tough lefties. Jung Ho Kang, coming back after missing the 2017 and most of 2018 season (just six at bats in three games), could also play into the 3B picture. He has shown 20-home power.  A bright spot in the lineup is catcher, where Francis Cervelli, who went .259-12-57 in 104 games a year ago, and Eliz Diaz (.286-10-3 in 82 games) hold sway.

Overall, the Pirate can put a competitive team on the field, but they really need another power bat or two to contend with the top three in the tough NL Central.

KEY OFF-SEASON MOVE

The Pirate did not make any flashy off-season moves.  Picking up Lonnie Chisenhall to hold down RF until Gregory Polanco returns from injury may very well prove to be the best move.

PLAYER TO WATCH

In early February, the Pirate signed free-agent Francisco Liriano (5-12, 4.58 with the Tigers last season). Liriano has twice won the Comeback Player of the Year Award (2010 AL and 2013 NL).  One of those times was with the Pirates – in 2013, when he went 16-8, 3.02 for Pittsburgh after a 6-12, 5.34 season with the Twins and White Sox the year before.  Can Liriano (and the Pirates) catch lightening in a bottle again?  At age 35, it seems unlikely, but it will be interesting to watch.

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REDS-Fifth Place

The Reds made some moves to bolster both the offense (adding Matt Kemp and Yasiel Puig) and their pitching woes (adding Tanner Roark, Alex Wood and Sony Gray).  All four came over via trade.  While, Kemp and Puig should thrive in The Great American Ballpark, Roark and Wood may not be enough to address the “elephant in the room” – the fact that the Reds’ pitching staff gave up an NL-worst 819 runs last season and had the second-worst team ERA at 4.63.

There are those that maintain the hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark played a major role in the Reds’ pitching problems – but the team had a 4.62 ERA at home and 4.68 on the road.

Joey Votto photo

Joey Votto – face of the Reds. Photo by Keith Allison

Let’s take a look at the Reds, staring with the offense. There is a lot to like there, starting with 1B Joey Votto a six-time All Star. Still, Votto had a bit of an off year in 2018 (.284-12-67), but should be good for a .300 average and 25-30 long balls. Having Yasiel Puig (.267-23-63 in 125 games for the Dodger) in the lineup behind him may help Votto get more pitches to hit (he has led the NL in walks five times since 2011).  With the addition of Puig and Kemp (.290-21-85), the Reds are, in fact, overstocked in the garden. They also have Jesse Winker (.299-7-43 in 89 games); Scott Schebler (.255-17-49 in 107 games); and prospect Nick Senzel – a natural infielder (2B/SS) who has been seeing some time in the OF.  Senzel, who has been discussed as a center fielder, hit .310 in 44 games at Triple A last year and .321-14-65 in 119 minor league games in 2017. (Note: Senzel has had some health issues – a couple of bouts with vertigo and a fractured finger.)  If Senzel is ready to go, we could see the Reds looking to trade some outfield talent for pitching.

Looking to the infield, Votto has plenty of company in the power category there.  Scooter Gennett (2B) went .310-23-92 a year ago; 3B Eugenio Suarez went .284-34-104; and SS Jose Peraza’s line was .288-14-58, with 23 steals. Tucker Barnhardt looks to again handle backstop duties – after a .248-10-46 season.

As you can see, there is plenty of offense here. Ah, but that pitching.  Luis Castillo is the staff leader after a 10-12, 4.30 season. The 26-year-old, entering his third MLB season, appeared to come of age in the second half of 2018, when he went 5-4, 2.44 and fanned 69 batters in 66 1/3 innings.  Newcomers Tanner Roark (9-15, 4.34 with the Nationals), Sonny Gray (11-9, 4.90 with the Yankees) and Alex Wood (9-7, 3.68 with the Dodgers) give a whole new look to the rotation. Also among the potential Reds’ starters are Anthony DeSclafani (7-8, 4.93) and Tyler Mahle (7-9, 4.98).  Overall, the rotation should be improved, but not enough to put the Reds in contention.  If the newcomers contribute, however, the Reds could pass the Pirates.

The bullpen will be led by closer Raisel Iglesias, who went 205, 2.38 with 30 saves in 2018. Others who are likely to be called on for important outs include Jared Hughes (4-3, 1.94, 7 saves in 72 games); David Hernandez (5-2, 2.53 in 57 games); and Mike Lorenzen (4-2, 3.11 in 45 games).

Overall, the Reds are notably improved, but face the challenge of a tough Division.  Fourth place is a possibility, but Cincy is not likely to contend.

KEY OFF-SEASON MOVE

The Reds addressed two key needs in their off-season trade with the Dodgers– adding a much needed starter in Alex Wood (9-7, 3.68) and protection in the linkup for Joey Votto in Yasiel Puig.  In addition, they picked up a solid outfielder in Matt Kemp (giving them some lineup and trade options going forward) and a utility infielder in Kyle Farmer. In return, they sent the Dodgers Homer Bailey and two of their leading prospects in Jeter Downs and Josiah Gray.  Puig hit .267 with 23 home runs and 15 steals last season and should benefit from hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark (as should Kemp, who went .290-21-85 for the Dodgers). 

PLAYER TO WATCH

Nick Senzel, a 24-year-old outfield prospect, was .314, with six home runs, 25 RBI and eight steals at Triple A Louisville in a 2018 season shortened by a broken finger. In three minor-league seasons, Senzel has hit .314-27-130, with 40 steals, in 231 games.  He looks like the real deal and could contend for the NL Rookie of the Year Award.

TOMORROW – THE NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST

 

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PREVIEW WEEK – DAY ONE – NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST

The season is almost upon us and it’s time for some BBRT predictions. Things, of course, can change – particularly since there are still some “difference makers” out there on the free-agent market (Like Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel). Over the coming week, BBRT will look at each MLB Division, and then wrap up with predictions for the major awards (ROY, CYA, MVP).

We’ll start with the National League – it is the “Senior Circuit” after all – and move from East to West.   After each divisional predicted order of finish – for those who want more detail or justification – I’ll move on to a team-by-team evaluation.  Keep in mind, these are just BBRT’s opinions and conjecture – not the result of any inside insight or info.

For the NL Central, click here.

For the NL West, click here.

For the AL East, click here.

For the AL Central, click here.

For the AL West, click here.

For the major awards, click here.

NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST

Nationals (Division Champions)

Phillies (Wild Card)

Mets

Braves

Marlins

A rotation headed by Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and newcomer Patrick Corbin – plus a deep lineup (even without Bryce Harper) should bring Washington the East Division crown.  The Phillies – after adding Bryce Harper, Jean Segura, Andrew McCutchen and J.T. Realmuto – signaled they are serious about contending.  And, they will.  Their pitching may fall just a bit short of the Nationals, but they do have some solid young arms.  If Philadelphia goes out and gets Dallas Keuchel, this could be a real dog fight. The Mets have a solid pitching staff (led by Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Zack Wheeler and free-agent signee closer Edwin Diaz).  I just don’t think they added enough offense to catch the Nationals or Phillies.  The Braves have a solid offense, but need more pitching (particularly with Mike Foltynewicz’ health concerns).  The Marlins just don’t have the horses for this race.

COME BACK TOMORROW – FOR THE NL CENTRAL.

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NATIONALS – First Place

Max Scherzer again leads the Nationals' Staff. Photo by Keith Allison

Max Scherzer again leads the Nationals’ staff.
Photo by Keith Allison

The Nationals, who underachieved (82-80) in 2018, and then lost six-time All Star Bryce Harper (.249-34-100) to free agency, appear well-positioned to reclaim the top spot in the NL East – thanks, in most part, to the strength of their pitching.

It all starts with a rotation with a penchant for missing bats.  Three-time Cy Young Award winner Max Scherzer last season went 18-7, 2.53 – and fanned 300 hitters in 220 2/3 inning (12.2 K’s per nine). Next up is Stephen Strasburg (10-7, 3.74), who fanned 156 in 130 innings (10.8 K’s per nine). New to the rotation is southpaw free-agent (D-backs) and 2018 All Star Patrick Corbin, who won 11 (versus seven losses), put up a 3.15 ERA and whiffed 246 batters in 200 innings. The rotation is rounded out by free-agent signee (Braves) Anibal Sanchez (7-6, 2.83), who fell just two strikeouts short of nine-per–nine (135 K’s in 136 2/3 innings) and, possibly, Joe Ross, who is coming back after 2017 Tommy John Surgery.

The bullpen is led by lefty closer Sean Doolittle (3-3, 1.60, with 25 saves last season).  How reliable is the Nationals’ ninth-inning guy?  In the past two seasons, Doolittle is 49-for-52 in save opportunities. Other pen notables include free-agent signee Troy Rosenthal, who has a 99-mph fastball and 121 saves on his resume, but missed the 2018 season recovering from Tommy John surgery; Justin Miller (7-1, 3.61 in 51 games); Matt Grace (1-1, 2.87 in 56 games); Koda Glover; and Kyle Barraclough.  Overall, expect this group to be handed plenty of leads to protect.

There are a number of new faces in what looks to be a deep lineup.  This is particularly true “up the middle.”  At catcher, the Nats picked up 2018 AL All Star Yan Gomes from the Indians (trade) and signed free agent (Braves) Kurt Suzuki.   The stat lines for these two are .266-16-48 (Gomes) and .271-12-50 (Suzuki).  Last season, the Nationals got a .214 average with 12 home runs and 60 RBI out of their catching corps. At the keystone sack, free-agent signee (Dodgers) Brian Dozier takes over.  While Dozier went just .215-21-72 in 2018, the one-time Gold Glover has topped 20 home runs in five straight seasons, with a high of 42 in 2016.  He played much of 2017 with a troubling bone bruise (knee) and looks ready to bounce back.  In center field there is top prospect 21-year-old Victor Robles, a speedy plus-defender, who hit .288-3-10 in 21 games after a September call up (and is considered a Rookie of the Year candidate by many). Joining Robles in the outfield will be 20-year-old Juan Soto. The left-handed swinger hit .292, with 22 long balls and 70 RBI in 116 games in his rookie season. Not bad for a teenager.  The final garden spot will go to Adam Eaton, who went .301-5-33, with nine steals in 95 games a year ago.

Adding to the offensive fire power will be 3B Anthony Rendon (.308-24-92, with an NL-leading 44 doubles) and classic table-setter SS Trea Turner (.271-19-73, with a league-topping 43 steals). This is a pair of proven run producers – and Rendon could easily be in the MVP picture. The Nationals are hoping veteran 1B Ryan Zimmerman can rebound from 2018 health issues (.264-13-51 in 85 games in 2018, after .303-36-108 in 2017). If the 34-year-old can’t go every day, look for Matt Adams (.239-21-57 in 121 games) to pick up the slack.

Overall, the Nationals’ power-pitching should carry them back to the top of the NL East – and there is plenty of offensive potential to back that up (even without Bryce Harper).

KEY OFF-SEASON MOVE

Some would say letting Bryce Harper leave via free agency was the most significant off-season move by the Nationals.  BBRT is going with the signing of number-three starter Patrick Corbin. Corbin was 11-7, 2.15 with the Diamondbacks a year ago. He lengthens the top-end of the Nationals’ rotation.

PLAYER TO WATCH

BBRT will be watching CF Victor Robles. The 21-year-old went .276-2-14, with 19 steals in three minor league stops last season – before going .288-3-10 in 21 September games for the Nationals.  No question about his defensive skills, but it will be interesting to see how his bat fares in a full MLB season.

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PHILLIES – Second Place

Bryce Harper - Big score for the Phillies.

Bryce Harper – Big score for the Phillies.

Bryce Harper (free agent), Jean Segura (trade), Andrew McCutchen (free agent), J.T. Realmuto (trade). This off season, the Phillies proved they were serious about winning. Of course, it all centers on Harper, who will take over right field.  He hit only .249 a year ago (after .319 in 2017), but the six-time All Star and 2015 NL MVP popped 34 home runs, scored 103 times and drove in 100 tallies.  He also walked a league-leading 130 times – turning that .249 average into a .393 on-base percentage. Harper will be joined in the outfield by newcomer (LF) McCutchen – who should improve the garden defense.  The 2013 NL MVP doesn’t carry the bat he once did, but still brings 20-homer pop (.255-20-65 a year ago).  CF looks to belong to a combination of Odubel Herrera and Roman Quinn; with Herrera providing the better offense (.255-22-71) and Quinn superior on defense.

J.T. Realmuto is another key addition.  The 2018 All Star (.277-21-74), acquired in a trade with the Marlins, solidifies the backstop position. The Phillies have plenty of additional punch with 25-year-old 1B Rhys Hoskins (.246-34-96) still having plenty of upside and Maikel Franco (.270-22-68) at the other corner. Newcomer Jean Segura will handle shortstop and set the table for the boppers (.304 with ten homers and 20 steals in 2018). Look for Cesar Hernandez at the keystone sack (.253-15-60, with 19 steals).

The Phillies have a lineup that can challenge the Nationals, but they may fall a bit short on the mound.  A year ago, the Phillies’ 4.14 ERA was 11th in the NL and they didn’t do much to upgrade the staff.

WHY THE 2018 PHILLIES PHADED?

The Phillies’ pitching staff put up a 3.85 earned run average before the All Star break (and the team was 11 games over .500) and then slumped to 4.56 and 13 games under .500 post-break. The drop off was particularly significant in the back end of the rotation:  Nick Pivetta went from a 4.58 ERA in the first half to 5.05 in the second half; Vince Velasquez went from 4.39 to 5.68; and Zach Elfin from 3.15 to 5.76. Keep an eye on how the staff holds up in the second half of this season.

At the top of the all-righty rotation will be Aaron Nola – at 25-years-old a true ace (17-6, 2.37, with 224 K’s in 212 1/3 innings). The number-two slot goes to veteran Jake Arrietta (10-11, 3.96). These two will be followed by Nick Pivetta (7-14, 4.77), Vince Velasquez (9-12, 4.85) and Zach Elfin (11-8, 4.36).   A number of analysts have pointed to the potential of the arms at the back end of the rotation, I just don’t see enough there to close the gap on the Nationals.  Then again, Dallas Keuchel is still out there.

Nine different relievers notched saves for the Phillies a year ago.  That worries me (I prefer more defined roles in the pen).  Still, there is talent and I expect free-agent (Yankees) signee David Robertson (8-3, 3.23 with five saves) and returnees Seranthony Dominguez (2.95 with 16 saves) and Hector Neris (5.10 with 11 saves) to all be asked to record “big outs.”  And, of course, as I write this, Craig Kimbrel is still out there. (Although I think the Phillies may be done spending for this season.)

Overall, the Phillies should score more and win more, but BBRT is not sure they have the pitching to keep pace with the Nationals.

KEY OFF-SEASON MOVE

This one’s easy – Bryce Harper (six-time All Star and 2015 NL MVP) was the prize. 

PLAYER TO WATCH

Keep an eye on Nick Pivetta.  The Phillies need him to deliver on his potential – a mid- to upper-90’s fast ball and a crisp curve.  He has shown signs, notching 188 strikeouts in 164 innings last season. If he can improve on his 7-14, 4.77 mark, the Phillies could move a bit closer to the Nationals.

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METS – Third Place (tie)

I’ve got the Mets and Braves pretty much finishing in a dead heat for third place – the Braves counting on their run producers and the Mets on their run prevention.

Jacob deGrom ... could use a little more run support.

Jacob deGrom … could use a little more run support.

For the Mets, the key is pitching and it starts with 2018 NL Cy Young Award winner Jacob deGrom, who put up an MLB-best 1.70 earned run average and fanned 269 batters in 217 innings.  How important is it for the Mets to improve their offense (more on this later)?  Despite those numbers, deGrom won only ten games (nine losses) in 32 starts. The number-two spot in the rotation goes to Noah Syndergaard. The 6’6” righty went 13-3, 3.03 in 2018, with 155 strikeouts in 154 1 /3 innings. And there is plenty more behind the front two. Zack Wheeler went 12-7, 3.31 in 29 starts. He went 9-1, with a 1.68 ERA after the All Star break and seems poised for an even better season in 2018.  Southpaws Steven Matz and Jason Vargas, who both have the potential to turn in solid seasons, round out the starting five.  Matz was 5-11, 3.97 a year ago and (like deGrom) deserved much better. Vargas was 7-9, 5.77 for the Met last season, but won 18 games for the Royals.

In games in which he gave up two or fewer earned runs, Steven Matz won three, lost four and had eight no decisions.  

If you think the starting rotation looks good, consider what the Mets did to bolster the bullpen in the off-season. They signed free-agent closer Edwin Diaz, who posted 57 saves and a 1.96 ERA for the Diamondbacks (124 whiffs in just 73 1/3 innings).  They also brought back Jeurys Familia – who started 2018 as the Mets closer and had 17 saves before being traded to Oakland in July.  How much does he bring back to the Mets?  Familia had 51 saves as recently as 2016.  Other key bullpen arms will be Robert Gsellman (6-3, 4.28 with 13 saves in 68 appearances) and Seth Lugo (3-4, 2.66 in 54 games). When the Mets hold the lead after six innings, they should be in good shape to pick up the win.

DON’T TAKE OFFENSE … BUT THESE NUMBERS ILLUSTRATE THE PROBLEM

In 2018, the Mets scored the fourth-fewest runs in the National  League – and had no batters reach 150 hits, 30-home runs, 80 runs scored nor 90-RBI. The highest batting average among Mets to qualify for the batting title was Brandon Nimmo’s .263.

The Mets’ Achilles heel last season was offense. Surgeries on both heels cost them their most proven run producer – Yeonis Cespedes – most of last season; and his status for 2019 is not clear.  The Mets took steps to address that issue, signing free agents Robinson Cano (Mariners), Wilson Ramos (Phillies) and Jed Lowrie (A’s).  Cano, of course, is coming off an 80-game suspension, but is a proven performer. He hit .303, with ten home runs and 50 RBI in just 80 games a year ago – and has seven All Star selections, eight 20+ home run seasons and four 100-RBI campaigns on his resume.  He should help offset the time Cespedes misses. Ramos gives the Mets the reliable everyday catcher they have been seeking.  The 2018 All Star hit .306 with 15 home runs and 70 RBI in 111 games last season.  Lowrie may be the choice at 3B after a .267-23-99 seasons with the A’s. Amed Rosario (.256-9-51, with 24 steals) will be back at short. Todd Frazier (.213-18-59) and Jeff McNeil (.329-3-19 in 63 games) will also see some infield playing time. .

Looking to the outfield, LF Michael Conforto (.243-28-82) will provide some middle of the lineup pop, as should anticipated 1B Peter Alonso. In 2018, the 23-year-old prospect hit .285-36-119 in 132 games at Double A and Triple A. Brandon Nimmo (.263-17-47) should hold down RF and the lead off spot. Others in the OF mix are 2014 Gold Glover Juan Lagares, Rajai Davis and Carlos Gomez.

The Mets clearly have the pitching to contend. The offense remains the question mark.

KEY OFF-SEASON MOVE

Hard to go wrong picking a guy who saved 57 games in 61 opportunities, put up a 1.96 earned run average and fanned 15.2 batters per nine.  The Mets’ most significant move had to be signing Edwin Diaz.

PLAYER TO WATCH

BBRT will be watching the progress of Peter Alonso – .285-26-119 in 132 minor league games last season; and a .290 average with 59 home runs over three minor league seasons (255 games).  This 24-year-old has the potential to reshape the Mets’ lineup.

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BRAVES – Third Place (tie)

The young Braves surprised a lot people by taking the NL East title one year ago.  Youth again will be served in Atlanta – and generate plenty of offense.  I’m just not sure the pitching will be strong enough to repeat.

Freddie Freeman , steady power source. Photo by dougandme

Freddie Freeman , steady power source. Photo by dougandme

The Braves have a solid nucleus of young players starting with 21-year-old LF Ronald Acuna, Jr. (2019 NL Rookie of the Year), who put up a .293-26-64, 16 SB season, and 22-year-old 2B Ozzie Albies, who went .261-24-72 with 14 steals. OF Ender Inciarte (just 28 and entering his sixth major league season) won his third consecutive Gold Glove in center and put up a .265-10-61, 28-steal stat line. SS Dansby Swanson (the number-one draft pick in 2015) continues to improve his defense and launched 14 long balls last season. With a bit more plate discipline (44 walks and 122 whiffs a year ago), he could add some spark to the lineup.

The Braves balance this youth with solid and stable veterans.  Bringing back veteran OF Nick Markakis (35-years-old and entering his 14th MLB season) was a plus.  Markakis hit .297-14-93 last season and picked up his third Gold Glove. In 13 MLB campaigns, he’s never played less than 147 games, has hit .290 or better eight times and reached double-digit home runs in all but two seasons.  He will continue as a steadying influence on the youngsters in the lineup. Left-handed hitting veteran Freddie Freeman (.309-23-98) will provide plenty of offense at first base and another veteran, free-agent signee Josh Donaldson, will play at the opposite corner. Donaldson had a tough 2018 (shoulder, calf and arm issues) – playing in only 52 games (Indians/Blue Jays), but he is a three-time All Star, who has topped 30 home runs  in three of the past four seasons. Tyler Flowers and free-agent signee Brian McCann will handle the catching.

The Braves also boast an all under-30 rotation led by righty Mike Foltynewicz (13-10, 2.85) and southpaw Sean Newcomb (12-9, 3.90).   However, late in Spring Training the Braves announced that “Folty” may not be ready by Opening Day.  Ouch.  Among the Braves other projected starters are the reliable Julio Teheran (9-9, 3.94 a year ago) and Kevin Gausman (5-3, 2.87 in ten starts for the Braves, after coming over from the Orioles, where he was 5-8, 4.43). Hoping to round out the rotation is 23-year-old right-hander Touki Toussaint (gotta love that name), who came up in August last season and went 2-1, 4.04 in seven games – five starts.  Toussaint showed swing-and-miss stuff, fanning 66 in 65 innings for the Braves. (He went 9-6, 2.38 at Double and Triple-A last season – with 163 K’s in 136 1/3 innings.)  The Braves lack a proven ace, but – given their lineup and a bullpen that includes closer Aroldys Vizcaino (2-5, 3.11 with 22 saves), A.J.  Minter (3.23 in 65 games), Darren O’Day (3.60 in 20 games), Dan Winkler (3.43 in in 69 games) and Jonny Venters (3.61 in 50 games for Blue Jays and Braves) – they should be competitive.  Still, they won’t surprise as many people this year – and both the Nationals and Phillies look to be in better position to make the post season.

KEY OFF-SEASON MOVE

The Braves were relatively quiet this off season, but picking up Josh Donaldson to handle the hot corner could prove to be a real plus. Donaldson is coming off a difficult season, with shoulder and calf injuries limiting him to 52 games and a .246-8-23 line.  Over the previous three campaigns, he hit .285, with 111 home runs.  Donaldson’s on a one-year contract, so he has plenty of incentive to bounce back. That potential and his veteran presence should bolster this young Atlanta squad.

PLAYER TO WATCH

BBRT is going with RHP Touki Toussaint here.  Toussaint, with a 98-mph fastball and a plus curve, could surprise a lot of hitters.  The key will be command.  He walked 21 batters in 29 MLB innings last season (just 53 in 136 minor league frames, however).  Side note:  The Braves face a similar situation with Sean Newcomb, who went 12-9, 3.90 a year ago – but walked 81 batters in 164 innings. He also fanned 160. In two MLB seasons, Newcomb has walked 138 batters in 264 innings – 4.7 walks per nine frames.  If he can improve his command of the strike zone, Newcomb could be a solid number-two in the rotation. 

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MARLINS – Fifth Place

The Marlins had one All Star in 2018 – catcher J.T. Realmuto – and he’s now a Phillie.  The Fish are rebuilding – and they still have a ways to go (they did make some interesting splashes in the international talent pool).  This will be another long year in Miami.

They did add a couple of veteran free agents in OF Curtis Granderson and infielder Neil Walker (who last year spent time at 1B, 2B, 3B, RF and LF for the Yankees).   Walker, 33-years-old, had a tough year in New York (.219-11-46 in 113 games), but has shown better in the past and does give the Marlins lineup flexibility. Granderson, at 38-years-old, is showing some signs of injury issues.  In 2018, he went .242-13-38 in 123 games.  Both should see notable playing time (Walker probably at both corner infield spots), as the Marlins juggle the lineup.

In 2018, the Marlins scored the fewest runs in the National League (589) and gave up the second-most tallies (809) – for the NL’s worst run differential at minus-220.

Starlin Castro photo

Starlin the Marlin. Photo by dougandme

Others likely to see plenty of playing time include 2B Starlin Castro (.278-12-54), who still has plenty of life in his bat; SS J.T. Riddle (.231-9-36), a plus defender, who may split time with Miguel Rojas (.252-11-53); 3B Brian Anderson (.273-11-65), who could also see time in the OF if 3B Martin Prado (.244 in 54 games) is healthy;  and outfielders Lewis Brinson, Austin Dean and Peter O’Brien (who all still have to prove themselves at the MLB level).  Catcher looks to go to newcomer Jorge Alfaro, who went .262-10-37 in 108 games for the Phillies. (Note: Alfaro suffered a knee injury in Spring Training and may not be ready for Opening Day.)

There is a little some potential on the mound – particularly among the starters, where 27-year-old Jose Urena went 9-12, 3.98 (following a 14-7, 3.82 season in 2017) and 23-year-old Sandy Alcantara showed a high-90’s heater in a September call up (2-3, 3.44 with 30 strikeouts in 34 innings).  Others looking for a spot in the rotation include: Wei-Yin Chen (6-12, 4.79); Trevor Richards (4-9, 4.42); Dan Straily (5-6, 4.12); Pablo Lopez (2-4, 4.14); and Caleb Smith (5-6, 4.19). It should be an interesting competition.  I personally would really be working with Alcantara on consistency in the strike zone.

CAN’T I JUST STAY HOME?

Southpaw Wei-Yin Chen apparently likes home cooking. In 13 home starts last season, he went 5-3, with a 1.62 earned run average, 22 walks and 74 strikeouts in 78 innings.  In an equal number of road starts, he lasted 22 2/3 fewer innings and went 1-9, 9.27, with 37 strikeouts and 25 walks.

The bullpen has strike-zone problems of its own.  Miami relievers walked more batters than any other NL bullpen staff in 2018. Closer Drew Steckenrider went 4-4, 3.90 in 2018 (five saves). He showed swing-and-miss stuff (74 strikeouts in 64 2/3 innings), but his 27 walls created late-inning tension.    Southpaw Adam Conley (3-4, 4.09), a converted starter, should get some meaningful innings.  There are also Tayron Guerrero (1-3, 5.43, with 68 whiffs and 30 walks in 58 innings) and Nick Wittgren (2-1, 2.94 in 32 appearances.)

KEY OFF-SEASON MOVE

Picking up Neil Walker not only added some much-needed pop to the lineup (he has reached double-digits in home runs in nine straight seasons), but his versatility gives the Marlins some lineup flexibility (as they, perhaps, work to look at some young talent). It would not surprise BBRT to see Walker return to a .250-15-60 level season.

PLAYER TO WATCH

I’d keep an eye on right-hander Sandy Alcantara, whose fastball has reached triple digits on occasion (and is regularly in the high-90’s).  He was 6-3, 3.90 in two minor league stops last season – before his 2-3, 3.44 with the Marlins.  If he can master his command (at the MLB level last season, he fanned 30 in 34 innings, but also walked 23), he could put some victories up on the board.

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For Day Two – NL Central … Click Here

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Enter Sandman – BBRT Dives into the 2019 HOF Balloting … including BBWAA vs. Fan Tallies

MO

The results are in and congratulations go out to the 2019 Baseball Hall of Fame Class – beginning with Mariano Rivera, the first-ever unanimous selection (Let the debates begin.) Well-deserved congratulations also go to 2019 inductees Edgar Martinez, Roy Halladay and Mike Mussina.  In addition, BBRT would like to congratulate Today’s Game Era Committee electees Lee Smith and Harold Baines. The bios of these deserving new Hall of Famers can be found at the end of this post.  But first, some BBRT observations on both the election (BBWAA and Era Committee) and the differences between the BBWAA official balloting and BBRT’s unofficial fan vote.

BBRT’s BALLOT (If I had one.)

BBRT would have voted for Rivera, Martinez, Halladay and Mussina – as well as Jeff Kent, Todd Helton, Larry Walker, Fred McGriff, Omar Vizquel and Andy Pettitte.  For BBRT’s comments on each of those candidates, see my November 19, 2018 post (click here). At that time, I predicted Rivera and Martinez would get in and had Halladay and Mussina as dark horse candidates with a good chance at election.  Looking at the Today’s Game Era Committee candidates, BBRT would have voted for Smith and Lou Piniella. Back on November 7, I predicted their election and had Harold Baines and George Steinbrenner as dark horse candidates.  For that post, click here.

OBSERVATIONS ON BBWAA BALLOT

Here are just a few thoughts on the BBWAA balloting.

  • Mariano Rivera’s unanimous election may pave the way for higher vote totals in the future. In the past, we have seen voters making a distinction between first-ballot electees and those elected on subsequent ballots (demanding more of first-timers on the ballot).  That distinction may be blurring.
  • The induction of Mariano Rivera (unanimous and first-ballot) and Lee Smith indicate a past bias related to relief pitchers may behind us.
  • The induction of Edgar Martinez (with about 70 percent of his MLB starts at DH) and Harold Baines (with about 60 percent of his MLB starts at DH) may indicate the relaxing of a perceived bias against players who were primarily designated hitters (good news for David Ortiz).   However, since Martinez got in on his tenth and final year on the ballot and Baines was elected by the Today’s Game ERA Committee, this one observation demands further proof.

CMost votes
Others with 95 percent or higher: Nolan Ryan (98.79%); Tony Gwynn (97.61); Randy Johnson (97.27); Greg Maddux (97.20); Chipper Jones (97.16); Mike Schmidt (96.52); Steve Carlton (95.82); Babe Ruth (95.13); Honus Wagner (95.13). 

POST ELECTION QUESTION

On BBRT’s mind is whether Mike Mussina goes into the Hall of Fame as an Oriole or a Yankee.  Moose went 147-81, 3.53 in ten seasons for Baltimore and 123-72, 3.88 in eight seasons in New York. I’m rooting for the O’s – with whom Mussina has more wins and a lower earned run average, as well as more complete games (45 to 12) and more shutouts (15 to eight). Then again, his strikeouts per nine innings were better with the Yankees (7.4 to 6.9) and his walks per nine were also better (1.8 to 2.1). Mussina also had more post-season appearances with the Yankees (17 games to six), but his post-season record with Baltimore was 2-1, 2.53 versus 4-7, 3.80 with the New Yorkers.

BIGGEST SURPRISE OF 2019 BBWAA BALLOTING – LANCE BERKMAN

I admit I was surprised by Mariano Rivera’s unanimous election, I anticipated there would be a holdout or two based on a feeling that if Babe Ruth (or Ty Cobb, Hank Aaron, Cy Young, etc.) weren’t unanimous, no one should be.  Credit to the BBWAA for setting aside that thinking.  That aside, BBRT was very surprised to see Lance Berkman as a “one and done” on the ballot – with just 1.2 percent of the vote. I didn’t anticipate his election, but I did expect him to get enough support (five percent) to stay on the ballot.

Berkman – one of Houston’s “Killer B’s” – provided dependable power for the Astros (1999-2010).  He also played for the Yankees (2010), Cardinals (2011-12) and Rangers (2013).  Berkman was a five-time All Star, whose career line was .293-366-1,234.  He also hit 422 doubles (leading his league twice) and scored 1,146 runs. Berkman hit 30 or more home runs five times (a high of 42 in 2002); drove in 100+ runs in six seasons; scored 100+ runs  in five campaigns; and hit  over .300 five times.  Berkman is also one of only 21 major leagues to hit 55 or more doubles in a season and put up a .317-9-41 stat line in 52 post-season contests.

THE BBWAA OFFICIAL BALLOT VERSUS BBRT’S UNOFFICIAL FAN BALLOT

Here are a few comparison between the BBWAA Balloting and BBRT’s fan voting.

  • While the top four players were the same on both sets of ballots, the fan balloting seemed more demanding.  In the fan ballot only Mariano Rivera and Edgar Martinez got the necessary 75 percent. Halladay and Mussina were in the 55-60 percent range.
  • Fans voting in the BBRT ballot were also a tougher sell on Rivera, who got 86.5 percent of the fan vote.
  • Players selected per ballot were fairly even,with fans casting votes for 7.7 players per ballot and the writers voting for 8.0 per ballot.
  • Fans seemed less forgiving than the writers when it came to PED suspicions.  For example, in the BBWAA balloting, Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds  got 59.5 and 59.1 percent of the vote,  respectively.  In the BBRT fan balloting, Clemens got 44.9 percent and Bonds 43.2.
  • Fans spread their votes around a bit more.  In BBRT’s fan balloting only three players received zero votes, while in the BBWAA official ballot eleven players were shutout.
  • Sixteen players were “one and done” on the BBWAA ballot (less than five percent support), while fifteen received less than five percent on the BBRT fan ballot.  The names on the “one and done” lists were identical except that Miguel Tejada received 7.3  on BBRT’s unofficial fan ballot, but only 1.2 percent on the BBWAA ballot.

A half dozen other notable differences between the BBWAA ballot and BBRT’s unofficial fan balloting:

  1. Curt Schilling finished fifth in the BBWAA ballot at 60.9 percent – and 13th in BBRT ballot at 27.6 percent.
  2. Fred McGriff (in his tenth and final year on the ballot) finished tenth on the BBWAA ballot (39.8 percent, up 16.6 points from the previous year). He finished fifth in the fan balloting at 49.5 percent (up 11.6 points).
  3. Jeff Kent got 18.1 percent of the BBWAA vote and 34.9 percent in the fan vote.
  4. Scott Rolen got 17.2 percent support in both tallies.
  5. Todd Helton received 16.5 percent support from the writers, 36.5 percent in the fan balloting.
  6. Andruw Jones got just 7.5 percent in the writers’ balloting, 21.4 percent in the BBRT fan vote.

Here’s the full comparison.

Fan vote 1votepage 2
FV3

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BIGGEST HOF SNUBS

The BBRT Fan Ballot asked for comments on which players represent the most significant Hall of Fame Snubs.  Here are the  leaders (in terms of mentions.

Barry Bonds – 11 mentions

Roger Clemens – 8

Jim Kaat  – 7

Fred McGriff – 4

Dale Murphy – 4

From BBRT’s perspective: I’d go with Jim Kaat (283 wins/16 Gold Gloves); Jeff Kent (Most HR’s in MLB history/MVP Award/1,500+ RBI); and Larry Walker (.313 career average/three batting titles/MVP Award/seven Gold Gloves).

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2019 BASEBALL HALL OF FAME INDUCTEES

Now a look at the 2019 inductees.

Mariano Rivera – 100 Percent … (RHP/Closer, 1995-2013) … First year on the ballot.

Mariano Rivera photo

Photo by Keith Allison

Rivera is at the top of the 2019 HOF class, no matter how you look at it – and we finally have our first unanimous selection.  (Although I did always like the speculation.)

Rivera spent nineteen years with the Yankees and racked up an MLB-best 652 career saves.  He was an All-star in 13 seasons, led the AL in games saved three times and finished in the top three in Cy Young  voting four times. He saved 30 or more games in a season 15 times (including nine seasons of 40 or more saves, two of fifty or more) and put up an overall won-lost record of  80-52, with a 2.21 earned run average in 1,114 games. In 11 of his 19 seasons, Rivera’s earned run average was under 2.00 – which included a four-season span (2003-06), in which he saved 170 games, won 21 (13 losses) and put up a 1.69 ERA in 302 2/3 innings pitched. In his final season – at age 43 – Rivera went 6-2, with a 2.11 ERA and 44 saves.  Rivera was the American League Rolaids Relief Man of the Year in five seasons and the MLB Delivery Man of the Year in three campaigns.

In 96 post-season appearances, Rivera went 8-1, with 42 saves and a minuscule 0.70 ERA. Rivera was named the World Series MVP in 1999 and the ALCS MVP in 2003.  In 58 of his 96 post-season appearances, Rivera pitched more than one inning.  In the 2003 post-season, he appeared in eight games, pitching 16 innings (more than one frame in seven of the eight appearances), earning a win and five saves, giving up just one earned run (0.56 ERA).

Mariano Rivera’s Best Season: Lots to choose from here – like 43 saves and a 1.38 ERA in 2005; or 44 saves and a 1.91 ERA in 2011 (at age 41). BBRT will go with 2004, when Rivera saved a career-high 53 games, won four (lost two) and posted a 1.94 ERA

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Edgar Martinez – 85.4 Percent … (Designated Hitter/Third Base, 1987-2004) … Tenth/Final year on the ballot, 70.4 percent on the BBWAA ballot in 2018.

Edgar Martinez baseball photo

Photo by clare_and_ben

We’ve seen some bias against designated hitters in past voting, but Edgar Martinez’ election indicates this may be subsiding. Martinez clearly, and expertly, defined the DH role. In an 18-season MLB career (all with the Mariners), Martinez was named to seven All Star teams; won a pair of batting titles (hitting a high of .356 in 1995); earned five Silver Slugger Awards; topped 100 RBI in six seasons (leading the league with 145 in 2000); and scored 100 or more runs five times (leading the league with 121 in 1995). He finished his career with a .312 average; 2,247 hits; 1,219 runs; 1,261 RBI; 309 home runs; and 514 doubles.

Martinez hit .571 in the 1995 AL Championship Series (12-for-21), with two home runs, six walks and 10 RBI in five games.  In 34 post-season games, he hit .266, with eight home runs and 24 RBI.

Edgar Martinez’ Best Season: One of two … In 1995, Martinez led the league in batting average (.356), runs scored (121) and doubles (52), adding  29 home runs and 113 RBI.  In 2005, Martinez put up a .324 average, 37 home runs, a league-leading 145 RBI and 100 runs scored.

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Roy Halladay – 85.4 percent …. (RHP/Starter, 1998-2013) … First year on the ballot.

Roy Halladay photo

Photo by Keith Allison

Roy Halladay had one of the best-ever ten-year runs on the mound (2002-2011).  In those ten seasons, he went 170-75, with a 2.97 earned run average and 1,699 strikeouts in 2,194 2/3 innings. He was an All Star eight times during that span and won a pair of Cy Young Awards (2003 and 2010). Halladay also recorded three seasons of 20 or more wins during those ten seasons, leading his league twice. Between 2002 and 2011, he also led his league in complete games seven times, shutouts four times and innings pitched four times.

And, there is more to support Halladay’s candidacy.  On May 10, 2010, he pitched a perfect game – striking out 11 – as his Phillies topped the Marlins 1-0 in Miami. Then, on October 6, 2010, Halladay tossed a no-hitter against the Reds in Game One of the National League Division Series – walking one and fanning eight as the Phillies won 4-0. It was just the second no-hitter in post-season history.  Halladay was also one of just six pitchers to win the Cy Young Award in both the American and National Leagues.

Halladay finished his career at 203-105, 3.38 with 2,117 strikeouts in 2,749 1/3 innings pitched.  He pitched for the Blue Jays (1998-2009) and Phillies (2010-13).

Roy Halladay’s Best Season: In his 2010 Cy Young Award season – after being traded from the Blue Jays to the Phillies in December of 2009 – Halladay led the NL in wins (21-10); complete games (nine), shutouts (four), and innings pitched (250 2/3), while putting up a 2.35 ERA (third in the league), fanning 219 batters (second in the NL) and walking just 30.    His 7.3 strikeouts to walks ratio was the NL’s best.

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Mike Mussina – 76.7 Percent …  (RHP/Starter, 1991-2008) – Sixth year on the ballot 63.5 percent on the BBWAA 2018 ballot.

Mike Mussina photo

Photo by Willie Zhang

Mussina built a 270-153 record, with a career 3.68 ERA and 2,813 strikeouts over 18 seasons. While only once a 20-game winner (in his final season, at age 39), Mussina won 18 or 19 games five times, leading the AL with 19 wins in 1995. In his first three full seasons in the major leagues (1992-94), Mussina put up a .700 or better winning percentage each year (.783, .700, .762). His record over that span – for the Orioles – was 48-16.

Mussina was a five-time All Star and a seven-time Gold Glove winner. He recorded a .650 or better winning percentage in nine seasons, with a career (and league-leading) high of .783 in 1992.  Mussina ranks among the top 25 pitchers all-time in strikeouts (20th) and strikeout-to-walk ratio (24th among pitchers with 1,000 or more innings pitched). He’s also in the top fifty all-time in games started, wins and winning percentage.  Mussina pitched for the Orioles (1991-2000) and Yankees (2000-2008).  Mussina appeared in 23 post-season games, with a 7-8 record and a 3.42 ERA.

Mike Mussina’s Best Season:  Mussina may have saved his best for last.  In his final season (as a Yankee), at age 39, he recorded his first twenty-win campaign.  That year, Mussina went 20-9, 3.37 – and proved his durability by leading the AL in starts with 34, logging his 11th season of 200 or  more innings pitched and earning his seventh Gold Glove

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— Today’s Game Era Committee Electees—-

Lee Smith (RHP) … 1980-97

From Baseball Roundtable’s perspective, Lee Smith should have been in the Hall of Fame years ago.  However, in his 15 years on the traditional ballot, he never garnered more than 50.6 percent support – and never less than 29.9 percent.

Why does BBRT feel strongly about Lee Smith spot in the Hall? Smith’s 478 career saves put him third on the all-time list (he was number-one when he retired after the 1997 season).  He recorded 13 consecutive seasons (in an 18-year career) of 25 or more saves, a 3.03 lifetime ERA and 1,251 strikeouts in 1,289 innings pitched; led his league in saves four times; made seven All Star teams; and was the Rolaids Relief Man of the Year in three seasons.  Smith also is one of just 16 pitchers to appear in 1,000 or more MLB games.  His 1,022 appearances put him at number 13.

Smith pitched for the Chicago Cubs (1980-87); Boston Red Sox (1988-90); St. Louis Cardinals (1990-93); New York Yankees (1993); Baltimore Orioles (1994); California Angels (1995-96); Cincinnati Reds (1996); Montreal Expos (1997).

Lee Smith’s best season:  1991, Cardinals … 6-3, 2.34 ERA, 47 saves, 73 innings pitched, 67 strikeouts.

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Harold Baines (OF/DH) … 1980-2001

Harold Baines baseball photo

Photo by Keith Allison

Harold Baines had a 22-season MLB career. He was a six-time All Star and two-time winner of the Designated Hitter of the Year Award. He is in the top 50 players all-time in hits with 2,866 (46th) and RBI with 1,628 (34th). Baines, with a .289 career average, hit .300 or better in nine seasons. He was a steady source of power with 384 home runs, never reaching 30 in a season, but hitting 20 or more home runs in ten campaigns.  He drove in 100+ runs in three seasons and scored 1,299 runs in his career. Baines hit .324, with five home runs, 16 RBI and 14 runs scored in 31 post-season contests.  Harold Baines played for the White Sox (1980-1989, 1996-1997, 2000-2001); Rangers (1989-1990); A’s (1990-1992); Orioles (1993-1995, 1997-2000); and Indians (1999).

Harold Baines’ best season:  Baines’ best MLB campaign may have been 1999, when – at age 40 – he made his final All Star team and hit .312, with 25 home runs and 103 RBI, playing for the Orioles and Indians. That season, Baines also hit .357 (5-for-16), with one home run and four RBI in four post-season (ALDS) games.

Primary Resources:  Baseball-Reference.com; MLB.com; Society for American Baseball Research. 

BASEBALL ROUNDTABLE MAKES TOP 100 BASEBALL BLOG LIST

100Baseball Roundtable has made the Feedspot list of the Top 1oo Baseball Blogs.  To see the full list, click here.

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BBRT Unofficial 2019 Hall of Fame Fan Ballot – One Tough Crowd

Baseball Roundtable’s 2019 unofficial fan Hall of Fame balloting is complete – and, in this post, I’d like to share the results and a few early observations.  (I will post a more detailed comparison of the Baseball Writers Association of America – BBWAA –  official balloting and the BBRT fan voting once the official results are announced on January 22). Note: This year’s fan ballot results include 192 ballots (218 were cast, but 26 were eliminated, primarily on one of  two grounds; they either included more than the allotted ten votes or represented multiple ballots from the same individual.

Here are some early notes.  When BBRT ran its first fan ballot last year, I fully expected the fans to be less demanding of candidates than the BBWAA. Oops! A swing and a miss!  Last year, the writers voted in Chipper Jones (97.2 percent); Vlad Guerrero (92.9 percent); Jim Thome (81.8 percent); and Trevor Hoffman (79.9 percent). While the BBRT fan vote put the same four players at the top, only two got the required 75 percent –  Chipper Jones (90.0 percent and Jim Thome (75.9 percent). Vlad Guerrero and Trevor Hoffman got 71.7 percent and 57.5 percent, respectively.

2019 FAN BALLOT – Mariano Rivera and Edgar Martinez Garner 75 Percent-plus

REOnly two players got the required 75 percent support in the 2019 BBRT fan ballot: Mariano Rivera (86.5 percent) and Edgar Martinez (75.5 percent). A coincidence of interest to BBRT, both were at positions subject to previous negative bias in HOF voting and both so eloquently (through their performance) defined those positions that Major League Baseball now has awards named after them:  The Mariano Rivera American League Reliever of the Year Award  and The Edgar Martinez Outstanding Designated Hitter Award.

In the publicly announced BBWAA balloting (171 ballots as of January 14/41.5 percent of eligible voters), Rivera and Martinez received even stronger support than in the BBRT fan ballot, with Rivera at 100 percent and Martinez at 90.1 percent.  Perhaps even more notable, in the BBWAA ballots made public through January 14, Roy Halladay (94.2 percent) and Mike Mussina (81.3 percent) were also above 75 percent mark.  Should those results hold, we would again see four candidate getting the needed 75 percent support from the BBWAA and just two receiving three-fourths of the fan vote. I do anticipate percentages to slip a bit as final BBWAA vote totals are announced – based on an expectation that voters who voted for the fewest candidates at the least likely to have publicly released their ballots.  Of considerable interest will be whether Rivera becomes the first unanimous electee.

2019 ballot

Note: You can view an update total of BBWAA publicly revealed ballot at bbhoftracker.com

In the Baseball Roundtable 2019 Hall of Fame Fan Ballot, participants voted for an average of 7.7 players per ballot. In the publicly announced BBWAA official balloting (through January 14), voters selected 8.7 players per ballot.  Those numbers mirror full 2018 voting, when BBRT ballots showed 7.9 players per voter, while the BBWAA voters selected 8.5 per ballot.

PED FORGIVENESS SLOW IN COMING FROM FANS

Comparing BBWAA balloting (again publicly released ballots through January 14), fans seem less forgiving then the writers when it comes to PED suspicions. For example, in the fan ballot, Roger Clemens came in at 44.8 percent; Barry Bonds at 43.2 percent; and Sammy Sosa at 8.9 percent.  Through January 14, the publicly announced BBWAA total for those three were 73.1 percent, 72.5 percent and 13.5 percent, respectively. Also, of note; fan vote percentages were down from 2018 for all three; while BBWAA percentages were up from 2018 finals for all three.

BIGGEST GAINERS AND LOSERS IN BBRT FAN BALLOT

Here’s a look at the biggest gainers and losers in the BBRT 2019 Fan Ballot.  BBRT will look at official BBWAA ballot gainers and losers when the final tallies are in.

Largest Gains

Larry Walker … +18.7 (28.7% to 47.4%)

Edgar Martinez … +18 .0 (57.5 to 75.5)

Mike Mussina … +13.0 (44.8 to 57.8)

Fred McGriff … +11.6 (37.9 to 49.5)

Jeff Kent … +10.8 (24.1 to 34.9)

Biggest Losses

Curt Schilling … -8.0 (35.6 to 27.6)

Roger Clemens … -4.2 (49.0 to 44.8)

Sammy Sosa … -4.1 (13.0 to 8.9)

Barry Bonds … -3.5 (46.7 to 43.2)

BIGGEST HOF SNUBS

The BBRT Fan Ballot also asked for comments on which players represent the most significant Hall of Fame Snubs.  Here are the  leaders (in terms of mentions.

Barry Bonds – 11 mentions

Roger Clemens – 8

Jim Kaat  – 7

Fred McGriff – 4

Dale Murphy 4

Three each: Jeff Kent; Edgar Martinez; Mike Mussina; Ted Simmons; Sammy Sosa.

There will be more to come when the official BBWAA results are released.  In the meantime, here’s how BBRT would have voted if I had a ballot.  (I would select the maximum ten players.)

——IF I HAD A BALLOT – BBRT’S WISHFUL THINKING——

 Mariano Rivera – (RHP/Closer, 1995-2013) … First year on the ballot.

MO

The question is not whether Rivera is a first-ballot Hall of Famer, it’s will he be the first-ever unanimous electee.  Best guess, there will be at least one BBWAA holdout.  He is at the top of the 2019 HOF class, no matter how you look at it.

Nineteen years with the Yankees and an MLB-best 652 career saves.  Rivera was an All-star in 13 seasons, led the AL in games saved three times and finished in the top three in Cy Young  voting four times. He saved 30 or more games in a season 15 times (including nine seasons of 40 or more saves, two of fifty or more) and put up an overall won-lost record of  80-52, with a 2.21 earned run average in 1,114 games. In 11 of his 19 seasons, Rivera’s earned run average was under 2.00 – which included a four-season span (2003-06), in which he saved 170 games, won 21 (13 losses) and put up a 1.69 ERA in 302 2/3 innings pitched. In his final season – at age 43 – Rivera went 6-2, with a 2.11 ERA and 44 saves.  Rivera was the American League Rolaids Relief Man of the Year in five seasons and the MLB Delivery Man of the Year in three campaigns.

In 2014, MLB established the Mariano Rivera AL Reliever of the Year Award (and the Trevor Hoffman NL Reliever of the Year recognition) – replacing the MLB Delivery Man of the Year Award.

Rivera was also an elite performer in the clutch. In 96 post-season appearances, he went 8-1, with 42 saves and a minuscule 0.70 ERA. Rivera was named the World Series MVP in 1999 and the ALCS MVP in 2003.  In 58 of his 96 post-season appearances, Rivera pitched more than one inning.  In the 2003 post-season, he appeared in eight games, pitching 16 innings (more than one frame in seven of the eight appearances), earning a win and five saves, giving up just one earned run (0.56 ERA).

Mariano Rivera’s Best Season: Lots to choose from here – like 43 saves and a 1.38 ERA in 2005; or 44 saves and a 1.91 ERA in 2011 (at age 41). BBRT will go with 2004, when Rivera saved a career-high 53 games, won four (lost two) and posted a 1.94 ERA

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Edgar Martinez – (Designated Hitter/Third Base, 1987-2004) … Tenth/Final year on the ballot, 70.4 percent on the BBWAA ballot in 2018.

Edgar Martinez baseball photo

Photo by clare_and_ben

We’ve seen some prejudice against designated hitters in past voting, but Edgar Martinez has made progress against that negative bias – getting 70.4 percent pf the vote last season, a healthy increase from 58.6 percent in 2017. Martinez’ vote percentage has increased every year since 2015. The fact that this is his final year on the ballot should provide that final push. In publicly released BBWAA ballots through January 14, he stands at 90.1 percent.  This will be the year.  (Side note: Martinez came in at 75.5 percent on the BBRT fan ballot.)

Martinez clearly, and expertly, defined the DH role. In an 18-season MLB career (all with the Mariners), Martinez was named to seven All Star teams; won a pair of batting titles (hitting a high of .356 in 1995); earned five Silver Slugger Awards; topped 100 RBI in six seasons (leading the league with 145 in 2000); and scored 100 or more runs five times (leading the league with 121 in 1995). He finished his career with a .312 average; 2,247 hits; 1,219 runs; 1,261 RBI; 309 home runs; and 514 doubles.

Martinez hit .571 in the 1995 AL Championship Series (12-for-21), with two home runs, six walks and 10 RBI in five games.  In 34 post-season games, he hit .266, with eight home runs and 24 RBI.

In 2004, MLB renamed the Outstanding Designated Hitter Award “The Edgar Martinez Outstanding Designated Hitter Award.” That says a lot, right there.

Edgar Martinez’ Best Season: One of two here, In 1995, Martinez led the league in batting average (.356), runs scored (121) and doubles (52), adding  29 home runs and 113 RBI.  In 2005, Martinez put up a .324 average, 37 home runs, a league-leading 145 RBI and 100 runs scored.

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Mike Mussina –  (RHP/Starter, 1991-2008) – Sixth year on the ballot 63.5 percent on the BBWAA 2018 ballot.

Mike Mussina photo

Photo by Willie Zhang

In 2015, BBRT speculated that the presence newcomers Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez and John Smoltz on the Hall of Fame ballot would dampen the chances of all other pitchers – including Mike Mussina – for election.  This year, I speculated that the addition of Roy Halladay to the ballot would help Mussina. Basically, I anticipated that Halladay would generate considerable support and that, as BBWAA voters considered a ballot for Halladay (who has 203 wins), Mussina’s 270 victories will carry additional weight.  That seems to be coming to pass, with Halladay standing at 94.2 percent through January 14 and Mussina at 81.3 percent.

Since his first-ballot percentage of 20.3 percent in 2014, Mussina’s totals have climbed each year – 24.6 percent in 2015; 43.0 percent in 2016; 51.5 percent in 2017; and 63.5 percent in 2018.  He would have had BBRT’s vote in each of those years – and in 2019.

Mussina built a 270-153 record, with a career 3.68 ERA and 2,813 strikeouts over 18 seasons. While only once a 20-game winner (in his final season, at age 39), Mussina won 18 or 19 games five times, leading the AL with 19 wins in 1995. In his first three full seasons in the major leagues (1992-94), Mussina put up a .700 or better winning percentage each year (.783, .700, .762). His record over that span – for the Orioles – was 48-16.

Mussina was a five-time All Star and a seven-time Gold Glove winner. He recorded a .650 or better winning percentage in nine seasons, with a career (and league-leading) high of .783 in 1992.  Mussina ranks among the top 25 pitchers all-time in strikeouts (20th) and strikeout-to-walk ratio (24th among pitchers with 1,000 or more innings pitched). He’s also in the top fifty all-time in games started, wins and winning percentage. While the lack of a Cy Young Award on his resume may hurt him, he finished his career 117 games over .500 – and history says 100 or more wins than losses should be good for a ticket to the Hall. Mussina pitched for the Orioles (1991-2000) and Yankees (2000-2008).

On September 2, 2001, Mike Mussina – pitching for the Yankees – retired the first 26 Red Sox batters he faced and came with one strike of a perfect game. Mussina had a 1-2 count on pinch-hitter Carl Everett before Everett blooped a single to left-center. Mussina ended up with a 1-0, one-hit shutout victory.

Mussina appeared in 23 post-season games, with a 7-8 record and a 3.42 ERA.

Mike Mussina’s Best Season:  Mussina may have saved his best for last.  In his final season (as a Yankee), at age 39, he recorded his first twenty-win campaign.  That year, Mussina went 20-9, 3.37 – and proved his durability by leading the AL in starts with 34, logging his 11th season of 200 or  more innings pitched and earning his seventh Gold Glove

Mussina deserves a spot in Cooperstown and I expect it will be a VERY close call – but it looks like he will make it this year.

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Roy Halladay – (RHP/Starter, 1998-2013) … First year on the ballot.

Roy Halladay photo

Photo by Keith Allison

Roy Halladay had one of the best-ever ten-year runs on the mound (2002-2011).  In those ten seasons, he went 170-75, with a 2.97 earned run average and 1,699 strikeouts in 2,194 2/3 innings. He was an All Star eight times during that span and won a pair of Cy Young Awards (2003 and 2010). Halladay also recorded three seasons of 20 or more wins during those ten seasons, leading his league twice. Between 2002 and 2011, he also led his league in complete games seven times, shutouts four times and innings pitched four times.

And, there is more to support Halladay’s candidacy.  On May 10, 2010, he pitched a perfect game – striking out 11 – as his Phillies topped the Marlins 1-0 in Miami. Then, on October 6, 2010, Halladay tossed a no-hitter against the Reds in Game One of the National League Division Series – walking one and fanning eight as the Phillies won 4-0. It was just the second no-hitter in post-season history.

Halladay would get BBRT’s vote and (through January 14) is running at just over 90 percent among publicly revealed BBWAA ballots.   If there is a negative in his candidacy it’s that, in the six seasons outside his ten-year run of excellence, Halladay was 33-26, 5.03.  Halladay finished his career at 203-105, 3.38 with 2,117 strikeouts in 2,749 1/3 innings pitched.  That appears to be enough for BBWAA voters.  Halladay pitched for the Blue Jays (1998-2009) and Phillies (2010-13).

Roy Halladay is one of just six pitchers to win the Cy Young Award in both the American and National Leagues.

Roy Halladay’s Best Season: In his 2010 Cy Young Award season – after being traded from the Blue Jays to the Phillies in December of 2009 – Halladay led the NL in wins (21-10); complete games (nine), shutouts (four), and innings pitched (250 2/3), while putting up a 2.35 ERA (third in the league), fanning 219 batters (second in the NL) and walking just 30.    His 7.3 strikeouts to walks ratio was the NL’s best.

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Larry Walker – (Outfield, 1989-2005) … Ninth year on the ballot, 34.1 percent from the BBWAA last year.

Larry Walker played for the Expos (1989-1994), Rockies (1995-2004) and Cardinals (2004-2005).  Given BBRT’s admiration for “lumber AND leather,” Walker’s combination of three batting titles, three Silver Slugger Awards and seven Gold Gloves earns him my vote.

Walker played 17 MLB seasons and retired with 2,160 hits, a .313 average and three batting titles.  Between 1997 and 2001, he hit .350 or better in four of five seasons. The five-time All Star (and 1997 NL MVP) hit 383 home runs (a high of 49 in 1997) and stole 230 bases (a high of 33 in 1997).  Walker hit just .230 in 28 post-season games, but did rack up seven home runs, 15 RBI and sixteen walks in those contests. Walker’s ten seasons in hitter-friendly Colorado may be hurting his vote totals – he hit .383 for his career in Coors, .271 elsewhere.  Still, BBRT believes if you add his Gold Glove defense to his productive bat, you have a Hall of Famer.  I’m also not much for punishing a player for taking full advantage of his home-field conditions.

Walker has shown progress this voting cycle, going from 34.1 percent among BBWAA voters in 2018 to 66.5 percent on publicly revealed BBWAA ballots (through January 14). He also made a 19-point leap on the BBRT fan ballot.  He has just one more year on the ballot, so a big move this year is crucial.

In 1997, Larry Walker led the NL with 409 total bases – the 18th highest single-season total all-time. (There have been only 29 seasons of 400 or more total bases in MLB history).

Larry Walker’s Best Season: In his 1997 NL MVP year (Rockies), Walker hit .366, with a league-leading 49 home runs. He drove in 130 runs, scored 143, rapped 46 doubles, led the league in total bases at 409, topped the league in slugging percentage at .720 and even threw in 33 stolen bases and a Gold Glove.  That’s using all five tools.

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Todd Helton  (First Base, 1997-2013) … First year on the ballot.

Todd Helton would seem to have a good shot at the Hall, but is not likely to be a first-ballot inductee – in part due to the fact that he spent his entire 17-year career with the Rockies (playing half his games in hitter-friendly Coors field).  Helton, who put up a .316 career average, hit .345 at home and .287 on the road. Despite that home/road split, Helton’s body of work deserves HOF consideration. He was a five-time All Star, three-time Gold Glover and four-time Silver Slugger. He hit over .300 in 12 seasons – and won the NL batting crown in 2000 with a .372 average. His 59 doubles that season are the sixth-most all-time. Helton drove in 100 or more runs in five seasons and scored in triple figures six times. His 1,335 walks (36th all-time) indicate the respect he earned at the plate. It looks like he’ll be in the 20-25 percent range on the BBWAA ballot and he finished at 36.5 percent in the BBRT fan balloting.  His vote totals should climb over time – and he would continue to get BBRT’s vote.

Todd Helton’s is one of only 18 players to reach 400 or more total bases in a season – and one of only seven players to have multiple 400+ total base campaigns.

Todd Helton’s Best Season: In 2000, Helton won the NL batting crown with a .372 average – and also led the league in base hits (216), doubles (59), RBI (147),  on-base percentage (.463), slugging percentage (.698) and total bases (405).  He also scored 138 runs and hit 42 home runs.

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Jeff Kent – (Second Base/Third Base/First Base, 1992-2008) …  Sixth year on the ballot, 14.5 percent from the BBWAA last year.

BBRT believes Jeff Kent is a deserving candidate, but he has not been getting much support from the writers (14.5 percent a year ago, 12.9 percent in publicly released ballots through January 14).  He does better in BBRT’s fan balloting (34.9 percent this year), but still falls far short of 75 percent.  Kent holds the all-time MLB record for home runs by a second baseman (351 of his 377 career round trippers were hit while in the lineup at second base). He has a healthy .290 career batting average; his 1,518 RBI are 54th all time; and his 560 doubles 28th.

Jeff Kent has more career runs batted in than such noted Hall of Famers as Mickey Mantle, Billy Williams, Eddie Mathews, Duke Snider and Orlando Cepeda.

Kent was a five-time All Star and the 2000 NL MVP.  As primarily a middle infielder, he hit 20 or more home runs in 12 seasons (a high of 37 in 2007) and topped 100 RBI eight times. He hit .276, with nine home runs and 23 RBI in 49 post-season games. A couple of Gold Gloves, at this traditionally defense-oriented position, would have really helped his case.  Kent played for the Blue Jays (1992); Mets (1992-1996); Indians (1996); Giants (1997-2002); Astros (2003-2004); and Dodgers (2005-2008).

Jeff Kent’s Best Season: With the Giants in 2000, Kent put up these stats – 159 games; 196 hits; .334 average; 33 home runs; 125 RBI; 114 runs; 12 steals. His performance earned him the NL MVP Award.

Kent would BBRT’s vote – and I believe the BBWAA’s support is overdue (but not forthcoming).

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Omar Vizquel – (Shortstop/Third Base, 1989-2012) – Second year on the ballot, 37.0 percent on 2018 ballot.

Omar Vizquel got off to a good start toward an HOF plaque, grabbing 37 percent support on his first-ballot year.  Vizquel, who once again earns BBRT’s vote, is standing relatively stable in both BBRT’s fan vote and the official BBWAA balloting. If Vizquel does make it to the HOF, it will be more with his glove (eleven Gold Gloves) than his bat.  However, voters should be mindful of the fact that he finished his 24-season MLB career just 123 hits short of that milestone 3,000 safeties. Vizquel delivered premier defense to the Mariners (1989-1993); Indians (1994-2004); Giants (2005-2008); Rangers (2009); White Sox (2010-2011); and Blue Jays (2012). He was a three-time All Star – and put together a string of nine straight Gold Gloves at shortstop (1993-2001).

Omar Vizquel led his league in sacrifice bunts four times.

In the field, Vizquel has the second-highest career fielding percentage (.9847) among shortstops with at least 500 games at the position. The still-active Jose Eglasias is number one at .9853. Vizquel  is also the all-time leader among shortstops in double plays, ranks third at the position for career assists and 11th in putouts. He shares the record (with Cal Ripken, Jr.) for the fewest errors by a shortstop in a season of at least 150 games played (three).

On offense, Vizquel put up a serviceable .272 career average, with 80 home runs, 951 RBI and 1,445 runs scored. The 1,445 runs put him in the top 100 players all-time (82nd); while his 2,877 hits puts him in the top 50 (43rd). He also swiped 404 bases – topping twenty steals eight times (a high of 42 in 1999) – putting him at number 72 on the all-time list. Vizquel played in 57 post-season games, hitting .250-0-20.

Omar Vizquel’s Best Season: In 1999, with the Indians, Vizquel hit a surprising .333, with five home runs, 66 RBI, 112 runs scored and 42 stolen bases – and, of course, won a Gold Glove at shortstop.

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Fred McGriff – (First Base, 1986-2004) … Tenth/final year on the ballot, 23.2 percent last year.

Fred McGriff played for the Blue Jays (1986-1990), Padres (1991-1993), Braves (1993-1997), Devil Rays (1998-2001, 2004), Cubs (2001-2002) and Dodgers (2003).  McGriff  was five-time All Star, who bashed 493 career home runs (led his league twice, hit 30 or more  home runs in a season ten times); topped 100 RBI eight times (career total 1,550); and put up a  .284 career average over 19 seasons.  He ranks among MLB top 50 all-time in home runs, RBI, extra base hits and walks. McGriff was the 1994 All Star Game MVP. McGriff was also a solid post-season performer, going .303-10-37 in 50 post-season games.

Fred McGriff retired with 493 home runs, exactly matching the total of another well-respected first sacker – Lou Gehrig.

Fred McGriff’s Best Season: In 1999. McGriff hit .318, with 34 home runs and 104 RBI for Tampa Bay.

McGriff is getting a bit boost because this is his final year on the ballot, but is still falling far short of the  75 percent needed for induction.  (He’s at 35.1 percent on publicly revealed ballots through January 14.) Despite his 493 round trippers (seven more certainly would have helped his case, as would a couple of 40+ HR seasons), McGriff will have to wait for election through the “Era Committees.”.

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Andy Pettitte – (LHP/Starter, 1995-2010, 2012-13) … First year on the ballot.

I had to think for awhile on this one, largely because a major part of Andy Pettitte’s HOF resume was achieved in the post-season. Pettitte holds the MLB post-season marks for most wins (19 … versus 11 losses), innings pitched (276 2/3), games started (44), and is second in strikeouts (183). His post-season accomplishments include a 3.81 career ERA and the 2001 American League Championship Series MVP Award.

Andy Pettitte started 30 or more games in a season 12 times, leading his league three times (1997, 2006, 2007.)

Pettitte was no slouch in the regular season (Yankees – 1995-2003, 2007-2010, 2012-13) and Astros (2004-06).  He finished with 256 wins (153 losses) and a 3.85 ERA. Pettitte won 20 games in two seasons and 14 or more games 12 times – leading the AL with 21 wins in 1996. (As noted earlier, 100 more wins than losses seems to be a good standard for serious HOF consideration.) The three-time All Star struck out 2,448 batters (42nd all-time) in 2,316 innings. BBWAA voters aren’t showing much support, despite the 250 wins.  Through January 14, Pettitte was names on just 7 percent of the publicly released BBWAA ballots. He did better on the BBRT fan ballot – 27.6 percent.

Andy Pettitte’s Best Season: In 1997, following a 21-8 campaign in 1996, Pettitte went 18-7, with a 2.88 ERA (fourth-best in the AL), leading the league in starts with 35, finishing third in innings pitched (240 1/3) and eighth in strikeouts (166).

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Coming Soon:  A look at Wally Moon – the player who beat out Hank Aaron  and Ernie Banks for the 1954 NL Rookie of the Year Award and earned a Master’s Degree in Moon Shots and more. 

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BBRT Looks Deep into 2019 HOF Ballot … Offers “Unofficial” Fan Voting

BBRT’s Baseball Hall of Fame 2019 Debate Season is officially open!  The Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA) 2019 Hall of Fame ballots have been mailed and the results will be announced  January 22, 2019.  This year’s traditional ballot includes 15 holdovers from last year, along with 20 newcomers.

In this post, BBRT will share:

  • Predictions on the 2019 BBWAA voting;
  • BBRT’s ballot (if I had one);
  • A deep look into all the candidates on the ballot;
  • A link to BBRT’s unofficial fan ballot – please take a few minutes to follow the line and cast your vote.

—PARTICIPATE IN BASEBALL ROUNDTABLE’S  FANS’ HALL OF FAME BALLOT—

HOF BallotBaseball Roundtable is once again conducting an unofficial fan ballot to cast your vote(s) – click here.  Remember, you can vote for up to ten of the nominees for 2019 induction.  If you want to read through the nominees’ bios first, there is another link to the Fab Ballot following the bios (near the end of this post).  BBRT will be providing updates on the fan balloting, as well as a post-election comparison of fan votes as compared to the final BBWAA results.  Voting on the BBRT Fan Ballot will remain open until January 1, 1919. 

Regular Readers of Baseball Roundtable may remember that BBRT conducted an unofficial fan BB HOF ballot last November/December – inviting voters from among BBRT readers (and a number of additional fan groups) to voice their opinions on HOF-worthiness.  The 271 respondents to that survey were even tougher than the BBWAA, giving the necessary 75 percent support to just two candidates – Chipper Jones and Jim Thome.   The order of finish in the BBRT fan balloting, however, was remarkably similar to the BBWAA.  The same five players finished in the top five positions – and, although the exact order of finish differed a bit, nine players were included in the first ten spots on both ballots and fourteen players appeared among the first fifteen vote-getters on both tallies.

Again, you can click here to access the BRRT Fan Ballot. 

BBRT would stress that every player on the ballot – even those who remain for only one voting cycle – deserves high recognition – to make the major leagues, last ten years and make it past the Hall of Fame Screening Committee is a significant acccomplishment in itself. 

Now on to the official 2019 Baseball Hall of Fame election process itself – and, then, a look at the players on the ballot for 2019.

BASEBALL HALL OF FAME ELIGIBILITY/CRITERIA FOR ELECTION

The basic rules for eligibility are that a player must have played at least ten seasons and be retired for at least five years. In addition, the player must be approved for the ballot by the Hall of Fame Screening Committee.

A player can remain on the ballot for up to ten years, but must receive at least five percent of the vote in the preceding year’s ballot to remain on the ballot.  Each voter can vote for up to ten candidates.  Election requires that a player be named on at least 75 percent of the ballots cast.

The criteria for election: “Voting shall be based upon the player’s record, playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character, and contributions to the team(s) on which the player played.”

In this post, we’ll take a look at how BBRT would vote – if I had a ballot – as well at whom BBRT expects the BBWAA to vote in.  Notably, BBRT tends to be less stingy then the BBWAA voters.  I’ll list a full roster of ten candidates (in order of my preference) who would receive my vote.

—–LIKELY BASEBALL HALL OF FAME ELECTEES FOR 2019—–

BBRT’s Prediction for 2019 …

Last November, Baseball Roundtable released its 2018 BBWAA balloting predictions – accurately projecting the election of Chipper Jones, Jim Thome, Vlad Guerrero and Trevor Hoffman. For 2019, BBRT anticipates just two electees from the traditional ballot:

  • Mariano Rivera;
  • Edgar Martinez.

In addition, I have a pair of dark-horse candidates, who should generate significant support, maybe even enough for election (I do, however, think they may fall just a bit short);

  • Mike Mussina;
  • Roy Halladay

Note: For BBRT’s previoously posted take on the Today’s Game (Era Committee) ballot, click here,

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—-PLAYERS ON THE HOF BALLOT FOR 2019—-

What follows is a look at all the players on the ballot – starting with the two players BBRT expects to be elected, moving on to my pair of dark-horse candidates, then to the additional six players BBRT would vote for (if I had a ballot) and, finally, to a look at all the remaining players on the ballot.  I would note that you will not find those caught up in the PED-controversy on my ballot. While I think they will eventually be elected/inducted, if I had a ballot, I’d prefer they made the 75 percent without my vote.  Still, given their place in the history of the game, I’d probably break down and vote for the best of the group when they reached their final year of eligibility.

So, here is BBRT’s Hall of Fame Ballot – again, if I had one – with the players listed in BBRT’s order of preference.

GROUP ONE – BBRT WOULD VOTE FOR THESE TWO – AND ANTICIPATE THEY WILL BE IN THE 2019 HOF CLASS.

Mariano Rivera – (RHP/Closer, 1995-2013) … First year on the ballot.

mARIANO RIVERA photo

Photo by Keith Allison

Mariano Rivera should be a no-doubter. Nineteen years with the Yankees and an MLB-best 652 career saves.  Rivera was an All-star in 13 seasons, led the AL in games saved three times and finished in the top three in Cy Young  voting four times. He saved 30 or more games in a season 15 times (including nine seasons of 40 or more saves, two of fifty or more) and put up an overall won-lost record of  80-52, with a 2.21 earned run average in 1,114 games. In 11 of his19 seasons, Rivera’s earned run average was under 2.00 – which included a four-season span (2003-06), in which he saved 170 games, won 21 (13 losses) and put up a 1.69 ERA in 302 2/3 innings pitched. In his final season – at age 43 – Rivera went 6-2, with a 2.11 ERA and 44 saves.  Rivera was the American League Rolaids Relief Man of the Year in five seasons and the MLB Delivery Man of the Year in three campaigns.

In 2014, MLB established the Mariano Rivera AL Reliever of the Year Award (and the Trevor Hoffman NL Reliever of the Year recognition) – replacing the MLB Delivery Man of the Year Award.

Rivera was also an elite performer in the clutch. In 96 post-season appearances, he went 8-1, with 42 saves and a miniscule 0.70 ERA. Rivera was named the World Series MVP in 1999 and the ALCS MVP in 2003. In the 1999 World Series (Yankees over Braves in four games), Rivera pitched in three games, picking up a win and two saves, allowing no runs on three hits in 4 2/3 innings. In 58 of his 96 post-season appearances, Rivera pitched more than one inning.  In the 2003 post-season, he appeared in eight games, pitching 16 innings (more than one frame in seven of the eight appearances), earning a win and five saves, giving up just one earned run (0.56 ERA).

In BBRT’s mind, there is no question that Rivera should, and will, be a first-ballot electee.  Speculation is now emerging as to whether he will top Ken Griffey, Jr.’s all-time high 99.32 percent of the vote.  BBRT’s take?  He’ll come close, but a few voters will leave him off the ballot for a couple of reasons: 1) A misplaced belief that no one should be a unanimous selection; 2) A bias related to relief pitchers’ spot in the Hall.

Mariano Rivera’s Best Season: Lots to choose from here – like 43 saves and a 1.38 ERA in 2005; or 44 saves and a 1.91 ERA in 2011 (at age 41). BBRT will go with 2004, when Rivera saved a career-high 53 games, won four (lost two) and posted a 1.94 ERA

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Edgar Martinez – (Designated Hitter/Third Base, 1987-2004) … Tenth/Final year on the ballot, 70.4 percent in 2018.

Edgar Martinez baseball photo

Photo by clare_and_ben

We’ve seen some prejudice against designated hitters in past voting, but Edgar Martinez has made progress against that negative bias – getting 70.4 percent pf the vote last season, a healthy increase from 58.6 percent in 2017. Martinez’ vote percentage has increased every year since 2015. The fact that this is his final year on the ballot should provide that final push past the 75 percent mark.

Martinez clearly, and expertly, defined the DH role. In an 18-season MLB career (all with the Mariners), Martinez was named to seven All Star teams; won a pair of batting titles (hitting a high of .356 in 1995); earned five Silver Slugger Awards; topped 100 RBI in six seasons (leading the league with 145 in 2000); and scored 100 or more runs five times (leading the league with 121 in 1995). He finished his career with a .312 average; 2,247 hits; 1,219 runs; 1,261 RBI; 309 home runs; and 514 doubles.

Martinez hit .571 in the 1995 AL Championship Series (12-for-21), with two home runs, six walks and 10 RBI in five games.  In 34 post-season games, he hit .266, with eight home runs and 24 RBI.

In 2004, MLB renamed the Outstanding Designated Hitter Award “The Edgar Martinez Outstanding Designated Hitter Award.” That says a lot, right there.

Edgar Martinez’ Best Season: One of two here, In 1995, Martinez led the league in batting average (.356), runs scored (121) and doubles (52), adding  29 home runs and 113 RBI.  In 2005, Martinez put up a .324 average, 37 home runs, a league-leading 145 RBI and 100 runs scored.

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DARK HORSE CANDIDATES – WOULD GET BBRT’S VOTE

HAVE A CHANCE TO MAKE THE HALL THIS YEAR

Mike Mussina –  (RHP/Starter, 1991-2008) – Sixth year on the ballot 63.5 percent on 2018 ballot.

Mike Mussina photo

Photo by Willie Zhang

In 2015, BBRT speculated that the presence newcomers Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez and John Smoltz on the Hall of Fame ballot would dampen the chances of all other pitchers – including Mike Mussina – for election.  This year, I would speculate that the addition of Roy Halladay to the ballot will help Mussina. Basically, I think Halladay will generate considerable support and that, as BBWAA voters consider a ballot for Halladay (who has 203 wins), Mussina’s 270 victories will carry additional weight.

Couple that with the growing support Mussina has generated and it’s possible  this could be his year.  Since his first-ballot percentage of 20.3 percent in 2014, Mussina’s totals have climbed each year – 24.6 percent in 2015; 43.0 percent in 2016; 51.5 percent in 2017; and 63.5 percent in 2018.  He would have had BBRT’s vote in each of those years. Let’s take a look at Mussina’s HOF resume.

Mussina built a 270-153 record, with a career 3.68 ERA and 2,813 strikeouts over 18 seasons. While only once a 20-game winner (in his final season, at age 39), Mussina won 18 or 19 games five times, leading the AL with 19 wins in 1995. In his first three full seasons in the major leagues (1992-94), Mussina put up a .700 or better winning percentage each year (.783, .700, .762). His record over that span – for the Orioles – was 48-16.

Mussina was a five-time All Star and a seven-time Gold Glove winner. He recorded a .650 or better winning percentage in nine seasons, with a career (and league-leading) high of .783 in 1992.  Mussina ranks among the top 25 pitchers all-time in strikeouts (20th) and strikeout-to-walk ratio (24th among pitchers with 1,000 or more innings pitched). He’s also in the top fifty all-time in games started, wins and winning percentage. While the lack of a Cy Young Award on his resume may hurt him, he finished his career 117 games over .500 – and history says 100 or more wins than losses should be good for a ticket to the Hall. Mussina pitched for the Orioles (1991-2000) and Yankees (2000-2008).

On September 2, 2001, Mike Mussina – pitching for the Yankees – retired the first 26 Red Sox batters he faced and came with one strike of a perfect game. Mussina had a 1-2 count on pinch-hitter Carl Everett before Everett blooped a single to left-center. Mussina ended up with a 1-0, one-hit shutout victory.

Mussina appeared in 23 post-season games, with a 7-8 record and a 3.42 ERA.

Mike Mussina’s Best Season:  Mussina may have saved his best for last.  In his final season (as a Yankee), at age 39, he recorded his first twenty-win campaign.  That year, Mussina went 20-9, 3.37 – and proved his durability by leading the AL in starts with 34, logging his 11th season of 200 or  more innings pitched and earning his seventh Gold Glove

Mussina deserves a spot in Cooperstown and I expect it will be a VERY close call – but he could make it this year.

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Roy Halladay – (RHP/Starter, 1998-2013) … First year on the ballot.

Roy Halladay photo

Photo by Keith Allison

Roy Halladay had one of the best-ever ten-year runs on the mound (2002-2011).  In those ten seasons, he went 170-75, with a 2.97 earned run average and 1,699 strikeouts in 2,194 2/3 innings. He was an All Star eight times during that span and won a pair of Cy Young Awards (2003 and 2010). Halladay also recorded three seasons of 20 or more wins during those ten seasons, leading his league twice. Between 2002 and 2011, he also led his league in complete games seven times, shutouts four times and innings pitched four times.

The question is: Might that be enough – particularly given the emotion surrounding his untimely death – to be elected to the HOF on the first ballot? BBRT see the possibility, but also sees Halladay as a Dark Horse candidate, probably more likely to fall a bit short.  That’s partly because in the six seasons outside his ten-year run of excellence, Halladay was 33-26, 5.03.  Halladay finished his career at 203-105, 3.38 with 2,117 strikeouts in 2,749 1/3 innings pitched.  Halladay pitched for the Blue Jays (1998-2009) and Phillies (2010-13).

Roy Halladay is one of just six pitchers to win the Cy Young Award in both the American and National Leagues.

Still, there is more to support Halladay’s candidacy.  On May 10, 2010, he pitched a perfect game – striking out 11 – as his Phillies topped the Marlins 1-0 in Miami. Then, on October 6, 2010, Halladay tossed a no-hitter against the Reds in Game One of the National League Division Series – walking one and fanning eight as the Phillies won 4-0. It was just the second no-hitter in post-season history.

Again, BBRT speculates 203 wins mightl not be quite enough for a first-ballot election. Halladay would, however, get BBRT’s vote – and should, eventually, earn a plaque on the wall (and it could even be this year).

Roy Halladay’s Best Season: In his 2010 Cy Young Award season – after being traded from the Blue Jays to the Phillies in December of 2009 – Halladay led the NL in wins (21-10); complete games (nine), shutouts (four), and innings pitched (250 2/3), while putting up a 2.35 ERA (third in the league), fanning 219 batters (second in the NL) and walking just 30.    His 7.3 strikeouts to walks ratio was the NL’s best.

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SIX MORE PLAYERS WHO WOULD GET BBRT’S VOTE

BUT ARE NOT LIKELY TO ENTER THE HOF IN 2019

Omar Vizquel – (Shortstop/Third Base, 1989-2012) – Second year on the ballot, 37.0 percent on 2018 ballot.

Omar Vizquel got off to a good start toward an HOF plaque, grabbing 37 percent support on his first-ballot year.  Vizquel once again earns BBRT’s vote – and should make his way into the Hall of Fame over time.  When he does it will be more with his glove (eleven Gold Gloves) than his bat.  However, voters should be mindful of the fact that he finished his 24-season MLB career just 123 hits short of that milestone 3,000 safeties. Vizquel delivered premier defense to the Mariners (1989-1993); Indians (1994-2004); Giants (2005-2008); Rangers (2009); White Sox (2010-2011); and Blue Jays (2012). He was a three-time All Star – and put together a string of nine straight Gold Gloves at shortstop (1993-2001).

Omar Vizquel led his league in sacrifice bunts four times.

In the field, Vizquel has the second-highest career fielding percentage (.9847) among shortstops with at least 500 games at the position. The still-active Jose Eglasias is number one at .9853. Vizquel  is also the all-time leader among shortstops in double plays, ranks third at the position for career assists and 11th in putouts. He shares the record (with Cal Ripken, Jr.) for the fewest errors by a shortstop in a season of at least 150 games played (three).

On offense, Vizquel put up a serviceable .272 career average, with 80 home runs, 951 RBI and 1,445 runs scored. The 1,445 runs put him in the top 100 players all-time (82nd); while his 2,877 hits puts him in the top 50 (43rd). He also swiped 404 bases – topping twenty steals eight times (a high of 42 in 1999) – putting him at number 72 on the all-time list. Vizquel played in 57 post-season games, hitting .250-0-20.

Omar Vizquel’s Best Season: In 1999, with the Indians, Vizquel hit a surprising .333, with five home runs, 66 RBI, 112 runs scored and 42 stolen bases – and, of course, won a Gold Glove at shortstop.

Vizquel would get BBRT’s vote, but the BBWAA voters likely will make him wait a bit longer – showing a preference for a bit more offense.

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Jeff Kent – (Second Base/Third Base/First Base, 1992-2008) …  Sixth year on the ballot, 14.5 percent last year.

BBRT believes Jeff Kent is a deserving candidate, but he has not been getting much support from the writers.  Kent holds the all-time MLB record for home runs by a second baseman (351 of his 377 career round trippers were hit while playing second base). He has a healthy .290 career batting average; his 1,518 RBI are 54th all time; and his 560 doubles 28th.

Jeff Kent has more career runs batted in than such noted Hall of Famers as Mickey Mantle, Billy Williams, Eddie Mathews, Duke Snider and Orlando Cepeda.

Kent was a five-time All Star and the 2000 NL MVP.  As primarily a middle infielder, he hit 20 or more home runs in 12 seasons (a high of 37 in 2007) and topped 100 RBI eight times. He hit .276, with nine home runs and 23 RBI in 49 post-season games. Kent has the credentials, but BBRT has a hunch the writers may keep him on the bench – a couple of Gold Gloves, at this traditionally defense-oriented position, would have really helped his case.  Kent played for the Blue Jays (1992); Mets (1992-1996); Indians (1996); Giants (1997-2002); Astros (2003-2004); and Dodgers (2005-2008).

Jeff Kent’s Best Season: With the Giants in 2000, Kent put up these stats – 159 games; 196 hits; .334 average; 33 home runs; 125 RBI; 114 runs; 12 steals. His performance earned him the NL MVP Award.

Kent gets BBRT vote – and I believe the BBWAA’s support is overdue (but not forthcoming).  This is one HOF “snub” that somewhat confuses BBRT.

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Larry Walker – (Outfield, 1989-2005) … Ninth year on the ballot, 34.1 percent last year.

Larry Walker played for the Expos (1989-1994), Rockies (1995-2004) and Cardinals (2004-2005).  Given BBRT’s admiration for “lumber AND leather,” Walker’s combination of three batting titles, three Silver Slugger Awards and seven Gold Gloves earns him my vote.

Walker played 17 MLB seasons and retired with 2,160 hits, a .313 average and three batting titles.  Between 1997 and 2001, he hit .350 or better in four of five seasons. The five-time All Star (and 1997 NL MVP) hit 383 home runs (a high of 49 in 1997) and stole 230 bases (a high of 33 in 1997).  Walker hit just .230 in 28 post-season games, but did rack up seven home runs, 15 RBI and sixteen walks in those contests. Walker’s ten seasons in hitter-friendly Colorado may be hurting his vote totals – he hit .383 for his career in Coors, .271 elsewhere.  Still, BBRT believes if you add his Gold Glove defense to his productive bat, you have a Hall of Famer.  I’m also not much for punishing a player for taking full advantage of his home-field conditions.

In 1997, Larry Walker led the NL with 409 total bases – the 18th highest single-season total all-time. (There have been only 29 seasons of 400 or more total bases in MLB history).

Larry Walker’s Best Season: In his 1997 NL MVP year (Rockies), Walker hit .366, with a league-leading 49 home runs. He drove in 130 runs, scored 143, rapped 46 doubles, led the league in total bases at 409, topped the league in slugging percentage at .720 and even threw in 33 stolen bases and a Gold Glove.  That’s using all five tools.

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Fred McGriff – (First Base, 1986-2004) … Tenth/final year on the ballot, 23.2 percent last year.

Fred McGriff played for the Blue Jays (1986-1990), Padres (1991-1993), Braves (1993-1997), Devil Rays (1998-2001, 2004), Cubs (2001-2002) and Dodgers (2003).  McGriff  was five-time All Star, who bashed 493 career home runs (led his league twice, hit 30 or more  home runs in a season ten times); topped 100 RBI eight times (career total 1,550); and put up a  .284 career average over 19 seasons.  He ranks among MLB top 50 all-time in home runs, RBI, extra base hits and walks. McGriff was the 1994 All Star Game MVP. McGriff was also a solid post-season performer, going .303-10-37 in 50 post-season games.

Fred McGriff retired with 493 home runs, exactly matching the total of another well-respected first sacker – Lou Gehrig.

Fred McGriff’s Best Season: In 1999. McGriff hit .318, with 34 home runs and 104 RBI for Tampa Bay.

McGriff will get a boost because this is his final year on the ballot, but moving from under 25 percent to 75 percent is not likely.  Despite his 493 round trippers (seven more certainly would have helped his case, as would a couple of 40+ HR seasons), McGriff may have to wait for election through the “Era Committees” – and that does seem likely.

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Todd Helton – (First Base, 1997-2013) … First year on the ballot.

Todd Helton has a good shot at the Hall, but is not likely to be a first-ballot inductee – in part due to the fact that he spent his entire 17-year career with the Rockies (playing half his games in hitter-friendly Coors field).  Helton, who put up a .316 career average, hit .345 at home and .287 on the road. Despite that home/road split, Helton’s body of work deserves HOF consideration. He was a five-time All Star, three-time Gold Glover and four time Silver Slugger. He hit over .300 in 12 seasons – and won the NL batting crown in 2000 with a .372 average. His 59 doubles that season are the sixth-most all-time. Helton drove in 100 or more runs in five seasons and scored in triple figures six times. His 1,335 walks (36th all-time) indicate the respect he earned at the plate.

Todd Helton’s is one of only 18 players to reach 400 or more total bases in a season – and one of only seven players to have multiple 400+ total base campaigns.

Todd Helton’s Best Season: In 2000, Helton won the NL batting crown with a .372 average – and also led the league in base hits (216), doubles (59), RBI (147),  on-base percentage (.463), slugging percentage (.698) and total bases (405).  He also scored 138 runs and hit 42 home runs.

Helton will stay on the ballot and has a solid chance at entry into the HOF – he’s just not likely to overcome the first-ballot and Coors Field-bias this year.

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Andy Pettitte – (LHP/Starter, 1995-2010, 2012-13) … First year on the ballot.

I had to think for awhile on this one, largely because a major part of Andy Pettitte’s HOF resume was achieved in the post-season. Pettitte holds the MLB post-season marks for most wins (19 … versus 11 losses), innings pitched (276 2/3), games started (44), and is second in strikeouts (183). His post-season accomplishments include a 3.81 career ERA and the 2001 American League Championship series MVP Award.

Andy Pettie started 30 or more games in a season 12 times, leading his league three times (1997, 2006, 2007.)

Pettitte was no slouch in the regular season (Yankees – 1995-2003, 2007-2010, 2012-13) and Astros (2004-06).  He finished with 256 wins (153 losses) and a 3.85 ERA. Pettitte won 20 games in two seasons and 14 or more games 12 times – leading the AL with 21 wins in 1996. (As noted earlir, 100 more wins than losses seems to be a good standard for serious HOF consideration.) The three-time All Star struck out 2,448 batters (42nd all-time) in 2,316 innings.

Andy Pettitte’s Best Season: In 1997, following a 21-8 campaign in 1996, Pettitte went 18-7, with a 2.88 ERA (fourth-best in the AL), leading the league in starts with 35, finishing third in innings pitched (240 1/3) and eighth in strikeouts (166).

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THE REST OF THE BALLOT

So, with BBRT’s unofficial ten votes covered,  let’s look at the remainder of the ballot – in alphabetical order – since just making it on the ballot deserves recognition.

Rick Ankiel – (Outfield/Pitcher, 1999-2001, 2004, 2007-13) … First year on the ballot.

Rick Ankiel started his MLB career (1999) on the mound – debuting as a teenager with the Montreal Expos   In 2000, with the Cardinals, Ankiel went 11-7, with a 3.50 earned run average in 30 starts – striking out 194 batters in 175 innings, finishing second in the NL Rookie of the Year balloting and earning honors as The Sporting News Rookie Pitcher of the Year.

Then in the 2000 post season, he “lost the plate.”  In Game One of the NL Division Series (versus the Braves), Ankiel lasted just 2 2/3 innings – giving up four runs on four hits and six walks, and also unleashing five wild pitches in his  final inning.  Ankiel drew another post-season start in the National  League Championship Series (versus the Mets).  This time, he lasted just two-thirds of an inning (two runs on one hit, two walks and two more wild pitches). Ankiel never rediscovered his control, suffered an elbow injury in 2002, had Tommy John surgery in 2003 – and re-emerged in the major leagues as an outfielder in 2007. His final regular-season pitching line: 13-10, 3.90, with 269 strikeouts in 242 innings.

In 2010, Rick Ankiel became the first player since BabeRuth to total at least ten career pitching victories and 50 career home runs.  

Ankiel returned to the majors as an outfielder (Cardinals) in 2007 – hitting .285, with 11 home runs and 39 RBI in 47 games. He played through the 2013 season, putting up a final career batting line of .240-76-251, with 260 runs scored and 21 stolen bases (in 11 seasons/651 games).

Rick Ankiel’s Best Season:  In 2000, Rick Ankiel (pitcher) went 11-7, 3.50.  In 2008, Rick Ankiel (outfielder) hit .264, with 25 home runs and 71 RBI in 120 games.

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Jason Bay – (Outfield, 2003-13) … First year on the ballot.

Jason Bay was the NL Rookie of the Year with the Pirates in 2004, when he played in 120 games and put up a .282-26-82 stat line. He had a solid (but not HOF) 11-season MLB career (Padres, 2003; Pirates, 2003-2008; Red Sox, 2008-09; Mets, 2010-12; and Mariners, 2013. Bay was a three-time All Star and one-time Silver Slugger winner.  He finished his career with a .266 average, 222 home runs and 754 RBI.  Bay topped 100 RBI in four seasons, scored 100 or more runs in three campaigns and hit 30+ home runs four times.

Jason Bay’s Best Season: In 2005, Bay was an All Star with the Pirates.  He played in all 162 games, hitting .a career high .306, with 32 home runs, 101 RBI, 110 runs scored and 21 stolen bases.

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Lance Berkman – (Outfield/First Base, 1999-2013) … First year on the ballot.

Lance Berkman – one of Houston’s “Killer B’s” – provided dependable power for the Astros (1999-2010).  He also played for the Yankees (2010), Cardinals (2011-12) and Rangers (2013).  Berkman was a five-time All Star, whose career line was .293-366-1,234.  He also hit 422 doubles (leading his league twice) and scored 1,146 runs. Berkman hit 30 or more home runs five times (a high of 42 in 2002); drove in 100+ runs in six seasons; scored 100+ runs  in five campaigns; and hit  over .300 five times.

Lance Berkman is one of only 21 MLB players to hit 55 or more doubles in a season.

Berkman also earns some support due to his .317-9-41 stat line in 52 post-season contests.

BBRT anticipates Berkman will get enough support to stay on the ballot for 2020.

Lance Berkman’s Best Season: In 2001, Berkman hit .331, with 34 home runs, 126 RBI, 110 runs scored and league-leading 55 doubles.  I might note there are those who would pick his 2002 season, when he hit .292, with 42 long balls and led the NL with 128 RBI.

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Barry Bonds  – (Outfield, 1986-2007) … Seventh year on the ballot, 56.4 percent a year ago.

Barry Bonds played for the Pirates (1986-1992) and the Giants (1993-2007). There is no doubt about Bond’s credentials – .298 average, 2,935 hits, MLB-record 762 home runs, 1,996 RBI, MLB-record 2,558 walks. He was also a 14-time All Star; 12-time Silver Slugger Award winner; his league’s MVP a record seven times; and an eight-time Gold Glove winner.  In 2001, Bonds hit .328, with an MLB-record 73 home runs and 177 RBI.  He drove in 100 or more runs 12 times and also scored 100 or more runs in a dozen seasons.  And, I could go on and on.

Barry Bonds drew an MLB-record 688 intentional walks in his career. Second place?  Albert Pujols, with 310. In 2004 alone, Bonds drew a recrod 120 intentional passes. He led his league in IBB 12 times. 

Still, there are those PED’s – an elephant in the room that I think will keep Bonds out of the Hall for at least another year (and probably until his final year on the ballot). Eventually, the dam will break and we will see some of the major stars now under a PED cloud take places in the Hall.  BBRT is not ready to cast that vote yet – and I don’t think 75 percent of the BBWAA is either. We can expect Bonds back on the ballot next year (he may top 60 percent this year).

Barry Bonds’ Best Season: In 2001, Bonds crushed an all-time record 73 home runs, while hitting .328, driving in 137 runs, scoring 129 – all while drawing 177 walks.

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Roger Clemens – (RHP/Starter, 1984-2007) … Seventh year on the ballot, 57.3 percent last year.

Roger Clemens pitched for the Red Sox (1984-1996), Blue Jays (1997-1998), Yankees (1999-2003, 2007) and Astros (2004-2006).  Clemens has Hall-worthy stats:  354 wins (ninth all-time), 4,672 strikeouts (third all-time), an MLB-record seven Cy Young Awards and the  1986 AL MVP Award. He was a five-time 20-game winner (led the league in wins four times), seven-time ERA leader, five-time league leader in strikeouts, and six-time leader in shutouts.  He won the AL pitching Triple Crown (Wins/ERA/Strikeouts) three times.  Clemens also has 12 post-season wins, with 173 strikeouts in 199 post-season innings.

Roger Clemens shares the record for strikeouts in a nine-inning game (20) with Kerry Wood and Max Scherzer. Clemens is the only pitcher to achieve 20 whiffs  in a nine-inning game twice. 

Roger Clemens Best Season: Lots to choose from here. Like 21-6, 1.93 in 1990 – or 1987, with a 20-9 record, 2.97 ERA, 18 complete games and seven shutouts.  I take 1986. Clemens went 24-4. 2.48 and won both the Cy Young (his first) and AL MVP Awards for the Red Sox.  He led the AL in wins, winning percentage (.857) and earned run average. He was fifth in innings pitched (254); second in strikeouts (238);

Yes, he’s got the numbers (those listed and more), but the PED controversy seems to stand between him and the Hall. Don’t think the BBWAA is ready yet, but he’ll continue on the ballot – and will likely gain a bit of ground on that 75 percent requirement.

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Freddy Garcia – (RHP, 1999-2013) … First year on the ballot.

Freddy Garcia got off to a blazing start, going 17-8, 4.07 as a rookie (1999) with the Mariners – pitching 201 1/3 innings and fanning 170.  He went on to a 15-season MLB career and a final stat line of 156-108, 4.15. Garcia, a two-time All Star topped fifteen wins in five seasons (a high of 18 in 2001). He struck out 1,621 batters in 2,264 innings.

Garcia pitched for the Mariners (1999-2004), White Sox (2004-06, 2009-10), Phillies (2007), Tigers (3008), Yankees (2011-12), Orioles (2013) and Braves (2013).  A nice career, not likely enough numbers to stay on the ballot.

Freddy Garcia started games in the post-season for the Mariners, White Sox, Yankees and Braves – going 6-3, 3.26 in 11 starts.

Freddy Garcia’s Best Season: In 2001 Garcia went 18-6, with an AL-lowest (among qualifiers) 3.05 earned run average. He also fanned 163 batters in a league-leading 238 2/3 innings – finishing third in the Cy Young Award balloting.

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Jon Garland – (RHP, 2000-2011, 2013) … First year on the ballot.

Jon Garland pitched in 13 MLB seasons. He toiled for the White Sox (2000-2007), Angels (2008), Diamondbacks (2009), Dodgers (2009, 2011), Padres (2010) and Rockies (2013).  He was an All Star once, an 18-game winner twice (2005-06) and topped 200 innings pitched in six seasons.  For his career, Garland was 136-125, 4.37, fanning 1,156 batters in 2,151 innings. In the 2005 post-season, Jon Garland started two games for the White Sox – going 1-0, 2.25, giving up just 11 hits, three walks and four earned runs, while striking out 11 in sixteen innings.

Jon Garland’s Best Season:  With the White Sox in 2005, Garland went 18-10, 3.50 and led the AL with three shutouts.

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Travis Hafner – (First Base/DH, 2002-2013) … First year on the ballot.

Travis Hafner launched 213 home runs in 12 MLB seasons – including a career-high 42 with the Indians in 2006.  He drove in 100 or more runs in four consecutive campaigns (2004-2007), hitting 127 home runs in that span and topping .300 in batting average in three of the four seasons.  His career stat line was .273-213-731 in 1,183 games.  He played for the Rangers (2002), Indians (2003- 2012) and Yankees (2013). A likely one-ballot player.

Travis Hafner led the AL in hit by pitch in 2004, being plunked 17 times.

Travis Hafner’s Best Season: In 2005, Hafner hit .308, with 42 home runs, 117 RBI and 100 runs scored in 129 games.

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Andruw Jones – (Outfield, 1996-2012) … Second year on the ballot, 7.3% in 2018.

Andruw Jones played for the Braves (1996-2007), Dodgers (2008), Rangers (2009), White Sox (2010) and Yankees (2011-2012). In a 17-season career – primarily patrolling centerfield – he won ten Gold Gloves (consecutively, 1998-2007). At the plate, he hit .254, with 434 home runs, 1,289 RBI and 1,204 runs scored. He topped 25 home runs in ten seasons (six over thirty and a league-leading and career-high of 51 in 2005). He scored 100 or more runs four times, drove in 100+ five times and stole twenty or more bases in a season four times.

Andrew Jones’ Best Season: In 2005, Jones hit only .263, but led the NL in home runs (51) and RBI (128) – finishing second in the MVP voting to Albert Pujols (.330-41-117).

Jones appeared in 76 post-season games, hitting .273, with ten home runs and 34 RBI.

In the 1996 World Series, Andruw Jones – just 19-years-old – hit .400 (8-for-20) with two home runs and six RBI, becoming the youngest player to hit for the distance in the Fall Classic.

Jones’ ten Gold Gloves work in his favor, but – over the long haul – that .254 average (he only hit .300 or better once and over .270 only four times) will dampen his HOF chances. Still, BBRT believe he deserves more support. He should get enough support to stay on the ballot for 2020.

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Ted Lilly (LHP/Starter, 1999-2013) … First year on the ballot.

Ted Lilly was a two-time All Star who went 130-113 in fifteen MLB seasons. He took the mound for the Expos (1999), Yankees (2000-02), A’s (2002-03), Blue Jays (2005-06), Cubs (2007-10) and Dodgers (2011013).  Lilly won 15 or more games in a season three times; ten or more nine times (with a high of 17 wins in 2008).  Lilly struck out 1,681 batters in 1,982 2/3 innings.

Ted Lilly was the starting pitcher for Team USA for two games in the 2009 World Baseball Classic.

Ted Lilly’s Best Season: In 2007, Lilly went 15-8, 3.83 in 34 starts, throwing a career-high 207 innings, walking 55 and fanning 174.

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Derek Lowe – (RHP/Starter/Reliever, 1997-2013) First Year on the ballot.

Derek Lowe pitched in 17 MLB seasons moving between a starting and bullpen role (377 starts and 303 relief appearances).  He has the distinction of leading the American League in saves (42 in 2000) and the National League in wins (16 in 2006) – as a result, he also was an All Star as both a closer and a starter.  Lowe’s final stat line was 176-157, 4.03 – with 86 saves. He fanned 1,722 batters in 2,671 1/3 innings pitched. He also led his league in games finished as a reliever once (64 in 2000) and games started four times (35 in 2005, 34 in 2008, 2009 and 2011).

Lowe won 15 or more games in a season five times and was a 20-game winner (21-8 in 2002). Lowe also pitched a no-hitter (for the Red sox against the Devil Rays on April 27, 2002 – walking one and fanning six as Boston won 10-0). Not enough here for election, but he could get enough to stay on the ballot for another year.  BBRT thinks it will be close. Lowe pitched for the Mariners (1997), Red Sox (1997-2004), Dodgers (2005-08), Braves (2009—11), Indians (2012), Yankees (2012) and Rangers (2013).

Derek Lowe was an American League All Star as both a closer (Red Sox 2000) and a starter (Red Sox 2002).

Derek Lowe’s Best Season:  A toss up here. In 2000, with the Red Sox, Lowe went 4-4, 2.56 with a league-leading 42 saves.  In 2002, still in Boston, he went 21-8, 2.58 in 32 starts,

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Darren Oliver – (LHP/Starter/Reliever 1993-2013) … First year on the ballot.

Darren Oliver spent more of the first 12 of his twenty seasons as a starter (228 starts in 306 appearances) going 87-79, 5.07. He lasted another eight seasons as a reliever (one start in 460 appearance), going 31-19, 2.95. The end result? A 118-98, 4.51 record with seven saves and 1,259 whiffs in 1,915 innings. Not enough to stay on the ballot – those years are a starter diminish his chances for holding over. Oliver pitched for the Rangers (1993-98, 2000-01, 2010-11), Cardinals (1998-99), Red Sox (2002), Rockies (2003), Marlins (2004), Astros (2004), Mets (2006), Angels (2009) and Blue Jays (2012-13).

Darren Oliver was the first pitcher to take the mound in a regular-season interleague game – starting for the Rangers against the Giants on June 12, 1997. He took the loss in that game, going 7 2/3 innings and giving up four runs on eight hits. San Francisco won 4-3.

Darren Oliver’s Best Season: In 1996, Lowe went 14-6, 4.66 in 30 starts for the Rangers.  (I must admit, however, BBRT was drawn to his age-41 season in 2012, when he appeared in 62 games for the Blue jays and went 3-4, with a 2.06 earned run average, two saves and 52 strikeouts in 56 2/3 innings.

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Roy Oswalt – (RHP/Starter 2001-2013) … First year on the ballot.

In 13 MLB season, Roy Oswalt pitched for the Astros (2001-10), Phillies (2010-11), Rangers (2012) and Rockies (2013). He started strong, going 14-3, 2.73 in his rookie season, leading the NL in winning percentage (.824) and striking out 144 batters in (versus just 24 walks) in 141 2/3 innings.  He finished second in the Rookie of the Year balloting to the Cardinals’ slugger Albert Pujols, who went .329-37-130 in his rookie campaign.

Oswalt went on to become a three-time All Star and two-time twenty-game winner.  He led his league in wins once, winning percentage once and earned run average once. Oswalt pitched 200+ innings in seven seasons (a high of 241 2/3 in 2005). He won 15 or more games in five campaigns and had an ERA under 3.00 in five seasons. For his career, he was 163-102, 3.36 with 1,852 strikeouts in 2,245 1/3 innings, 20 complete games and eight shutouts.

Oswalt was also a solid post-season pitcher – 5-2, 3.73 in 13 appearances (11 starts). He has a chance to stay on the ballot, but it should be close.

Roy Oswalt was the MVP of the 2005 National League Championship Series, when he started two games (for the Astros) against the Cardinals, winning both and giving up just two runs in 14 innings.

Roy Oswalt’s Best Season: In 2005, with the Astros, Oswalt went 20-12, 2.94, with a career high four complete games.

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Juan Pierre – (Outfielder, 2000-2013) … First year on the ballot.

One thing you can say about Juan Pierre, he always showed up ready to play. In fact, Pierre led the NL in games played for five consecutive seasons (2003-07) – appearing in 162 contests each season.  During his career, Pierre showed up on the leader board multiple times: five times leading his league in games played; three times in at bats; twice in base hits; once in triples; three times in stolen bases; four times in sacrifices; and once in hit by pitcher. He stole forty or more bases in a season, ten times (in his 14 seasons), topping sixty steals three times (a high of 68 in 2010).  Pierre also collected 200+ hits in a campaign four times, hit .300 or better in six seasons and scored 100 or more runs in three seasons (90 or more in seven). Pierre’s career stat line: .295-18-517, with 614 steals (18th all-time) and 1,075 runs. Pierre played for the Rockies (2000-02), Marlins (2003-05, 2013), Cubs (2006), Dodgers (2008-09), White Sox (2010-11) and Phillies (2012).

Juan Pierre (among qualifiers) was the hardest National League to strikeout in six seasons and led the AL in at bats per strikeout twice.

In the post-season, Pierre put up a .304 average in 26 games.

Pierre, ultimately, might not have HOF credentials, but he deserves enough support to stay on the ballot for 2020.

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Placido Polanco – (Second Base/Third Base/Shortstop, 1998-2013) … First year on the ballot.

A steady fielder and hitter, Polanco put up a .297 average over 16 seasons – and also picked up three Gold Gloves and a Silver Slugger Award. The two-time All Star collected 2,142 base hits and topped .300 in five season and collected 200 hits in one campaign. His final stat line was .297-104-723, with 1,009 runs scored. He provided considerable versatility, starting 947 games at 2B; 666 at 3B; 82 at SS – playing for the Cardinals (1998-2002), Phillies (2002-05, 2010-12), Tigers (2005-09) and Marlins (2013).

Placido Polanco is one of only two players to win Gold gloves at multiple positions. Polanco won in 2007 and 2009 at second base and in 2011 at third base.  Darin Erstad is the other, winning as an outfielder in 2000 and 2002 and as a first baseman in 2004.

Polanco played in 38 post-season games, hitting .248, with 13 RBI and 11 runs scored.

Placido Polanco’s Best Season: In 2007, playing for the Tigers, Polanco won a Gold Glove at 2B and hit .341 (third in the AL), with 200 hits, nine home runs, 67 RBI and 105 runs scored.

I’d like to see Polanco stay on the ballot, but I fear it’s not in the cards. But, looking at the stats, he was a pretty good player to have on your team.

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Manny Ramirez – (Outfield, 1993-2011) – Third Year on the ballot, 22.0 percent last year.

Manny Ramirez played 19 MLB seasons, collecting 2,574 hits, a .312 batting average, 555 home runs (15th all-time) and 1,831 RBI (19th all-time). Ramirez was a 12-time All Star and led the AL in average (2002), home runs (2004) and RBI (1999) once each.  Ramirez won nine Silver Slugger Awards, including eight consecutive (1999-2006), hit .285 with 29 home runs in 111 post season games and was the 2004 World Series MVP.  He hit 30 or more home runs in ten seasons (five of 40+).  Ramirez played in 111 post-season games, going .285-29-78 – and was the MVP of the 2007 World Series (for Boston) after hitting .412 with one home run and four RBI in four games.

Manny Ramirez’ 29 post-season home runs are first all-time, while his 78 post-season RBI rank second.

Ramirez clearly put up HOF-caliber numbers, but two PED-related suspensions continue to hurt his chances. (He dropped from 23.8 percent in 2018 to 22.0 percent last year).  Not this year, but he’ll be back for another shot.  Ramirez played for the Indians (1993-2000), Red Sox (2001-2008), Dodgers 2009-2010) and Rays (2011).

Manny Ramirez’ Best Season: In 1999, with Cleveland, Ramirez hit .333, with 44 home runs and 165 RBI (14th most in a season all-time) in 140 games.

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Scott Rolen – (Third Base, 1996-2012) … Second year on the ballot, 10.2 percent in 2018.

Scott Rolen played for the Phillies (1996-2002), Cardinals (2002-2007), Blue Jays (2008-2009) and Reds (2009-2012). The seven-time All Star (including in two of his final three seasons) flashed leather and lumber, collecting eight Gold Gloves (one Silver Slugger) and rapping 316 home runs. He finished with a .281 average, 316 home runs, 1,287 RBI, 1,211 runs scored and 188 stolen bases. Rolen hit 25 or more home runs seven times, with a high of 34 in 2005.  He also put up five 100+ RBI seasons, scored 100+ runs in two campaigns and reached double digits in steals five times. He was the NL Rookie of the Year in 1997 (.283-21-92, with 16 steals).

Only Brooks Robinson (16) and Mike Schmidt (10) have more Gold Gloves at third base than Scott Rolen’s eight.

Rolen hit .220, with five home runs and 12 RBI in 39 post-season games. Not a first-ballot inductee, but deserves to stay on the ballot for another round – and BBRT expects he will.

Scott Rolen’s Best Season: In 2004, with the Cardinals, Rolen hit career highs in average, home runs and RBI (.314-34-124) and won a Gold Glove.

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Curt Schilling – (Starting Pitcher , 1988-2007) … Seventh year on the ballot, 51.2 percent last year.

Curt Schilling pitched for the Orioles (1988-1990), Astros (1991), Phillies (1992-2000), Diamondbacks (2000-2003) and Red Sox (2004-2007).  Schilling was a six-time All Star, with 216 career wins (three seasons of 20 or more wins) over a 20-season MLB career. He recorded the 15th most career MLB strikeouts at 3,116  (three seasons of 300 or more whiffs), led his league in wins twice, complete games four times, innings pitched twice and strikeouts twice. He was also the 2001 World Series co-MVP – and has an impressive 11-2, 2.23 ERA post-season record (19 starts).

Curt Schilling is one half of the only tandem of teammates to strike out 300 batters in the same season. In 2002, Schilling fanned 316 batters for the Diamondbacks, while teammate Randy Johnson whiffed 324.

He is on the cusp for the HOF – reaching 250 wins would have helped.  However, his outspoken views, Mike Mussina’s 270-win total (likely he will get in before Schilling) and the lack of a Cy Young Award may be working against Schilling’s vote-getting capacity.

Curt Schilling’s Best Season: In 2001, Schilling went 22-6 for the Diamondbacks (with a 2.98 ERA).  That year, he lead the league in wins, starts (35), complete games (six), innings pitched (256 2/3).

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Gary Sheffield … (Outfield/Designated Hitter/Third Base/Shortstop, 1988-2009) … Fifth year on the ballot, 11.1 percent last year.

Gary Sheffield played for the Brewers (1988-1991), Padres (1992-1993), Marlins (1993-19998), Dodgers (1998-2001); Braves (2002-2003), Yankees (2004-2006) Tigers (2008) and Mets (2009).  Sheffield was a nine-time All Star (in 22 MLB seasons) and five-time Silver Slugger Award winner. He launched 509 career home runs (topped 30 home runs in a season eight times, with a high of 43 in 2000); maintained a .292 career average (hit .300+ in eight seasons); and collected 1,676 RBI (28th all-time).  He also won the 1992 NL batting title (.330); topped 100 RBI eight times; and scored  100 or more runs in a season seven times.

Gary Sheffield is one of only four players to hit MLB home runs as teenagers and in their 40’s. The others are Ty Cobb, Rusty Staub and Alex Rodriguez.

Gary Sheffield’s Best Season: In 1996 (Marlins), Sheffield hit .314, with 42 home runs, 120 RBI, 188 runs scored and 16 steals.

Sheffield appeared in 44 post-season games, hitting .248, with six home runs and 19 RBI.

Sheffield has the offensive numbers, but defensive questions and the shadow of PEDs are likely to keep him on the outside looking in.  He should return to the ballot next year, but it’s not a guarantee – since he dropped from 13.3 percent in 2017 to 11.1 percent in 2018. Not a good sign.

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Sammy Sosa – (Outfield, 1989-2007) … Seventh year on the ballot, 7.8 percent last year.

Sammy Sosa played for the Rangers (1989, 2007), White Sox (1989-1991), Cubs (1992-2004) and Orioles (2005).  Sosa hit 609 home runs (9th all-time) in 18 MLB seasons – winning two HR titles, topping sixty three times and also hitting 50 one year.  In the four seasons from 1998 to 2001, Sosa averaged 60 home runs and 149 RBI per season. His career numbers include a .273 average, 609 home runs, 1,667 RBI (30th all-time), 1,475 runs scored and 234 stolen bases (a high of 36 steals in 1993). Sosa was the 1998 NL MVP (Cubs), led his league in home runs twice, runs scored three times and RBI twice.

Sammy Sosa has the most 60-home run season in MLB history with three – yet he did not lead the league in home runs in any of them. In 1998, he hit 66 home runs (Mark McGwire hit 70); in 1999, Sosa launched 63 (McGwire had 65), and, in 2001, he hit 64 (Barry Bonds hit 73).  Talk about unfortunate timing. .   

Sammy Sosa’s Best Season: In 1998 (Cubs), Sosa hit .308, with 66 home runs, a league-leading 158 RBI and a league-leading 134 runs scored – and even tossed in 18 stolen bases.

Sosa played in 15 post-season contests, hitting .245-2-7.

Why is the seven-time All Star not in the Hall?  The PED shadow continues as a shadow over his chances.  At 7.8 percent last year, he’s getting dangerously close to dropping off the ballot.

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Miguel Tejada – (Shortstop/Third Base, 1997-2011, 2013) … First year on the ballot.

Miguel Tejada played 2,171 games in his 16-season MLB career – A’s (1997-2003), Orioles (2004-07, 2010), Astros (2008-09), Padres (2010), Giants (2011) and Royals (2013). Five times he led his league in games played – seven times playing in at least 160 contests in a season. He collected 2,407 hits, while putting up a .285 career average – with 307 home runs, 1,302 RBI and 1,230 runs scored.  Tejada – a six-time All Star and 2002 AL MVP – led his league in doubles twice and RBI once. He hit 30 or more home runs four times, drove in 100 or more runs in six seasons, scored 100 or more runs in four campaigns and collected 200+ base hits three times.  From June 2, 2000 to June 21, 2007, Miguel Tejada played in 1,152 consecutive games – MLB’s sixth-longest such streak. He should stay on the ballot for 2020.

Miguel Tejada’s is one of only 25 MLB players to log a season of 150 or more runs batted in. Not bad for a shortstop.

Miguel Tejada’s Best Season: In 2004, Tejada hit .311, with 34 home runs and a league-leading 150 RBI for the Orioles. That season he also collected 203 hits and scored 107 runs.

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Billy Wagner – (LHP 1995-2010) … Fourth year on the ballot, 11.1 percent last year.

Billy Wagner played for the Astros (1995-2003), Phillies (2004-2005), Mets (2006-2009), Red Sox (2009) and Braves (2010).Wagner was a seven-time All Star, who amassed 422 saves (sixth all-time) in a 16-season MLB career.  He had nine seasons of 30 or more saves; a career ERA of 2.31; 1,196 career strikeouts in 903 innings; and 47-40 won-lost record.

A natural right-hander, Wagner learned to pitch left-handed after breaking his right arm as a youngster. 

Billy Wagner’s Best Season: In 2003, Wagner went 1-4, 1.78 for the Astros, saving 44 games and fanning 105 batters in 86 innings.

BBRT thinks Wagner belongs in the Hall (based on his 400+ saves) – and hopes that momentum starts to build.   However, considering that Lee Smith – with his 478 saves – never reached 75 percent, the odds are not in Wagner’s favor.  However, Mariano Rivera’s pending election could help all closers down the road.  I expect Wagner will manage to hang in for a spot on the 2020 ballot.

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Vernon Wells – (Outfield, 2999-2013) … First year on the ballot.

Vernon Wells probably will not get the five percent necessary to stay on the ballot – but BBRT will be rooting for him. Wells, was a three-time All Star, three-time Gold Glover in CF (one Silver Slugger), who also hit 270 home runs and stole 109 bases.  He hit .270 for his career, but .300 or better in four seasons, twenty or more home runs eight times, drove in at least 100 runs three times and scored 100 or more runs in three seasons. He also led his league in hits, doubles and total bases once each. Wells played for the Blue Jays (1999-2010), Angels (2011-12) and Yankees (2013).

In 2005, Vernon wells led AL centerfielders in assists (12); double plays (4).

Vernon Wells’ Best Season: In 2003, with the Blue Jays, Wells hit .317, with 33 home runs, 117 RBI, 118 runs scored – while also topping the junior circuit in base hits with (215), doubled (49) and total bases (373).

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Kevin Youkilis – (First Base/Third Base, 2004-2013) … First year on the ballot.

Kevin Youkilis was a three-time All Star and one-time Gold Glover in ten MLB seasons.  His career line was .281-150-618, with 1,053 hits and 653 runs scored. He topped 20 homers in two seasons, 100 RBI once and reached 100 runs scored once. He also was a .300+ hitter in three consecutive seasons (2008-10, when he went .308-75-271 and earned two of his three All Star recognitions). Youkilis played for the Red sox (2004-2012), White Sox (2012) and Yankees (2013).

In the 2007, American League Championship Series, Kevin Youkilis hit .500 (14 for 28) with three home runs, seven RBI and 10 runs scored – as Boston tipped Cleveland in seven games. Josh Beckett, who started and won two games in the Series (giving up just three runs in 14 innings), was the ALCS MVP.

In 29 post-season games, Youkilis hit a healthy .306, with six home runs and 17 RBI.

Kevin Youkilis’ Best Season: In 2008, with Boston, Youkilis hit .312, with 29 home runs and 115 RBI – all career highs.

Youkilis needed a few more solid seasons to move on to the 2020 ballot.

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Michael Young … (Shortstop/Second Base/Third Base, 2000-2013) … First year on the ballot

Michael Young was a versatile and capable infielder who won a Gold Glove at shortstop in 2008. He was a seven-time All Star and .300 career hitter (.300-185-1,030). Young hit .300+ in seven seasons – wining the AL batting crown at .331 in 2005.  He topped 200 hits in a season six times, leading the AL with 221 in 2005 and 213 in 2011. Young also topped 20 home runs in four seasons, 100 RBI twice and 100 runs scored four times. Young played for the Rangers (2000-2012), Phillies (2013); and Dodgers (2013).

In his career, Michael Young started 776 games at shortstop, 457 at third base, 433 at second base and 78 at 1B.

Michael Young’s’ Best Season: In .2005, with the Rangers, Young led the AL with a .331 average and 221 hits.  He also drove in 91 runs and scored 114.

Young didn’t fare as well in the post-season as in the regular season.  In 43 post-season games, he hit.238, with three home runs and 19 RBI.

If BBRT had an 11th vote, Young would have been a leading candidate.  I’m hoping he stays on the ballot, but I’m afraid he may fall short.

Again, to vote in Baseball Roundtable’s unofficial Fan Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot, click here. 

Primary Resources: National Baseball Hall of Fame; Baseball-Reference.com; Baseball-Almanac.com

 

BASEBALL ROUNDTABLE MAKES TOP 100 BASEBALL BLOG LIST

100Baseball Roundtable has made the Feedspot list of the Top 1oo Baseball Blogs.  To see the full list, click here.

 

 

 

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MLB’a “Heavy Metal” Winners – Gold Glove and Silver Slugger in the Same Season

It’s the MLB awards season and there will be a lot of discussion and debate surrounding the major recognitions like Most Valuable Player, Cy Young Award, Rookie of the Year and Manager of the Year.  (For Baseball Roundtable’s take on the Rookie of the Year Award, click here.  For the MVP, Cy Young and Manager of the Year awards, click here.)

Now, regular readers of BBRT know that I have a particular fondness for players that bring “lumber and leather” to their game. With that in mind, this post will focus on players who have captured what BBRT terms “MLB’s Heavy Metal Doubleheader” – winning a Silver Slugger and Gold Glove in the same season. You will also find lists of the 2018 Gold Glove and Silver Slugger winners at the end of the post – and some heavy metal trivia along the way.

Note: The Hillerich and Bradsby Silver Slugger Awards were first presented in 1980 (the Rawlings Gold Glove Awards were launched in 1957), so the list of double winners is relatively recent (at least as defined by someone who went to their first World Series game the year the Gold Glove Awards were initiated.

In 2018, four players earned both a Gold Glove and a Silver Slugger:

  • Royals’ catcher Salvador Perez;
  • Rockies’ 3B Nolan Arenado;
  • Red Sox’ RF Mookie Betts; and
  • Braves’ RF Nick Markakis.

Let’s take a quick look at how they earned their gold and silver.

Nolan Arenado – Third Base, Rockies

When it comes to flashing leather and lumber, Rockies’ 3B Nolan Arenado can be considered the active “king.”  This past season was the 27-year-old’s sixth in the major leagues – and he has captured the NL Gold Glove at the hot corner in every campaign. He also earned his fourth consecutive Silver Slugger – giving him four straight “heavy metal” seasons.

On defense, this playmaker, led National League 3B in assists (312), put outs (104) and double plays (44).   On offense, Arenado hit .297, with NL-best 38 home runs, 110 RBI and 104 runs scored.  In six MLB seasons, Arenado has led the NL in home runs three times, RBI twice, total bases twice and doubles once.

Could it be in the water?

Nolan Arenado (Rockies) and Matt Chapman (A’s) – the NL and AL 2018 Gold Glovers at 3B – played together on the 2009 El Toro (Lake Forest, CA) High School baseball team. Arenado, a senior, was the starting shortstop and also pitched.  On the days Arenado took to the mound, sophomore Chapman played short.  And, now they are both MLB Gold Glove third baseman. 

Mookie Betts, RF, Red Sox

Mookie Betts photo

Photo by Keith Allison

Boston RF Mookie Betts earned his third consecutive Gold Glove and second Silver Slugger Award – in his fifth season (fourth full season). It was the second time that the 25-year-old outfielder earned both recognitions in the same campaign (2016 & 2018).

In the field, Betts led all right fielders with 20 Defensive Runs Saved (tying Lorenzo Cain for the highest total among all outfielders.). He was fourth in the AL in RF put outs (241) and total chances (246), committing just one error in 1112 innings (1001 in RF).  Often referred to as a center fielder playing right – there are likely plenty more Gold Gloves in Betts’ future.

On offense, the three-time All Star won the AL batting title with a .346 average and led the AL in runs scored (129) and slugging percentage .640.  He also put together a 30/30 season, hitting 32 home runs and swiping 30 bases, while driving in 80 tallies. In just five MLB seasons (644 games), Betts has hit .303, with 110 home runs, 100 steals, 390 RBI and 478 runs scored.

The Strangest Ever Heavy Metal Honoree

In 1999, the Texas Rangers’ Rafael Palmeiro had a tremendous offensive year, hitting .324, with 47 home runs and 148 RBI.  Post-season, he was honored with a  Silver Slugger Award as the league’s best offensive first baseman and his third-consecutive Gold Glove as the AL’s top defensive first baseman.  Those recognitions came despite the fact that Palmeiro was primarily a designated hitter in 1999 – starting just 28 games of his 158 games played at first base (128 starts at designated hitter, two pinch-hitting appearances).

Nick Markakis, RF, Braves

Nick markakis Braves photo

Photo by Keith Allison

Nick Markakis – a 13-season MLB veteran – earned his third Gold Glove and first-ever Silver Slugger Award in 2018.

Markakis led all MLB RF in games played at the position this past year (158), as well as in putouts (312) and total chances (323).  He was second in the NL in RF assists with nine, one behind the Dodgers’ Yasiel Puig.  Markakis committed just two errors in 1,409 1/3 innings (1387 1/3 in RF).

Offensively, Markakis hit .297, with 14 home runs, and 93 RBI. His .297 average was the highest among qualifying NL right fielders, as were his 93 RBI.

Salvador Perez – Catcher, Royals

Salvador Perez Royals photo

Photo by Keith Allison

Royals’ backstop Salvador Perez is a defensive wizard. Despite a season that got off to a late start due to an off-season MCL tear, Perez won his fifth Gold Glove in eight MLB seasons (six campaigns of 100 or more game played) and his second Silver Slugger Award. It was the second time he earned both Awards in the same season (2016 & 2018).

In 2018, Perez was second in the AL in assists (69), tied for the MLB lead in double plays at backstop (11), was third in the AL in runner caught stealing (25) and had the league’s second-best percentage of baserunners caught stealing (48.1 percent) among players with at least 81 games behind the plate. Perez committed no errors, while handling 759 chances.

On offense, while hitting just .235, Perez’ 27 home runs, 50 extra base hit and 80 RBI led all players who played primarily at catcher in 2018 (18 of Perez’ home runs and 61 of his RBI came in games in which he was behind the plate.)

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A FEW BITS OF SAME-SEASON SILVER SLUGGER AND GOLD GLOVER TRIVIA

  • Mike Hampton is the only pitcher ever to win a Gold Glove and a Silver Slugger in the same season (Braves – 2003). Ironically, it was the only National League Gold Glove won by a pitcher other than Greg Maddux between 1990 and 2008.
  • Ivan Rodriguez (C), Ken Griffey, Jr. (OF) and Barry Bonds (OF) each won the double (Silver Slugger/Gold Glove) crown in a season an MLB-record seven times.
  • The Chicago White Sox are the only team to never have a player capture a Silver Slugger Award and Gold Glove in the same season.
  • The fewest GG/SS combo winners in a single season (since 1980) is one – Dodgers’ 1B Adrian Gonzalez in 2014.
  • The most players to achieve the GG/SS combo in a season is nine – back in 1984: Lance Parrish, C, Tigers; Keith Hernandez, 1B, Mets; Eddie Murray, 1B, Orioles; Ryne Sandberg, 2B, Cubs; Lou Whitaker, 2B, Tigers; Mike Schmidt, 3B, Phillies; Buddy Bell, 3B, Rangers; Dave Winfield, OF, Yankees; Dale Murphy, OF, Braves.
  • Ivan Rodriguez (C) won the SS/GG combo for his position a record six consecutive seasons (1995-1999).
  • Roberto Alomar (2B) is the only player to win the single-season Gold Glove/Silver Slugger combo with three different teams (Blue Jays-1992; Orioles-1996; Indians-1999, 2000)
  • Scott Rolen (3B) is the only player to win the SS/GG combo in a season in which he played for two different teams (2002, Phillies/Cardinals). Rolen was traded from the Phillies to the Cardinals on July 29. He played 100 games for the Phillies and 55 for the Cardinals in what would be his only SS/GG combo season.
  • Adrian Gonzalez (1B) and Matt Williams (3B) are the only players to capture a SS/GG single-season combination in both the AL and NL. Gonzalez – Dodgers-2014; Red Sox-2011. Williams – Indians-1997; Giants-1993-1994.
  • The only team to have three SS/GG winners in the same season is the 1993 Giants (Robby Thompson (2B), Matt Williams (3B), Barry Bonds (OF).

__________________________________________________________________

Now, we’ve look at 2018’s “Heavy Metal Doubleheader” winners. Here’s a look back at those who have won both awards in the same season in the past.  Since 1980, the combination of a Gold Glove/Silver Slugger has been achieved in a season 186 times by 101 different players.  You’ll find a complete list of the players who have earned recognition as the offensive and defensive leader in their respective leagues in the same season later in this post. (I’m also including lists of 2018’s individual Silver Slugger and Gold Glove winners). Since the Silver Slugger is awarded to three outfielders annually regardless of their position (LF, CF, RF), GG/SS combo lists in this post do not break outfielders out by position.

______________________________________

Full List of Same-Year Gold Glove/Silver Slugger Winners by Season

2018

Nolan Arenado, 3B, Rockies; Mookie Betts, OF, Red Sox; Nick Markakis, OF, Braves’ Salvador Perez, C, Royals

2017

Nolan Arenado, 3B, Rockies; Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Diamondbacks; Eric Hosmer, 1B, Royals; Marcell Ozuna, OF, Marlins

2016

Nolan Arenado, 3B, Rockies; Mookie Betts, Of, Red Sox; Salvador Perez, C, Royals; Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Cubs

2015

Jose Altuve, 2B, Astros; Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Diamondbacks; Dee Gordon, 2B, Marlins; Nolan Arenado, 3B, Rockies; Brandon Crawford, SS, Giants.

2014

Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Dodgers

2013

Yadier Molina, C, Cardinals; Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Diamondbacks; J.J. Hardy, SS, Orioles; Adam Jones, OF, Orioles

2012

Adam LaRoche, 1B, Nationals; Robinson Cano, 2B, Yankees; Chase Headley, 3B, Padres; Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pirates

2011

Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Red Sox; Brandon Phillips, 2B, Reds; Adrian Beltre, 3B, Rangers; Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Rockies; Jacob Ellsbury, OF, Red Sox; Matt Kemp, OF, Dodgers

2010

Joe Mauer, C, Twins; Albert Pujols, 1B, Cardinals; Robinson Cano, 2B, Yankees; Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Rockies; Carl Crawford, OF, Rays; Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Rockies

2009

Joe Mauer, C, Twins; Mark Tiexiera, 1B, Yankees; Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Nationals’ Derek Jeter, SS, Yankees’ Matt Kemp, OF, Dodgers; Ichiro Suzuki, OF, Mariners; Torii Hunter, OF, Angels

2008

Joe Mauer, C, Twins’ Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Red Sox; David Wright, 3B, Mets; Grady Sizemore, OF, Indians

2007

Russell Martin, C, Dodgers; Placido Polanco, 2B, Tigers; David Wright, 3B, Mets; Jimmy Rollins, SS, Phillies; Carlos Beltran, OF, Mets; Ichiro Suzuki, OF, Mariners

2006

Derek Jeter, SS, Yankees; Carlos Beltran, OF, Mets

2005

Jason Veritek, C, Red Sox; Mark Tiexierea, 1B, Rangers; Derrek Lee, 1B, Cubs; Andruw Jones, OF, Braves

2004

Ivan Rodriguez, C, Tigers; Jim Edmonds, OF, Cardinals

2003

Brett Boone, 2B, Mariners; Edgar Renteria, SS, Cardinals; Alex Rodriguez, SS, Rangers; Mike Hampton, P, Braves

2002

Todd Helton, 1B, Rockies; Scott Rolen, 3B, Cardinals/Phillies; Eric Chavez, 3B, A’s; Edgar Renteria, SS, Cardinals; Alex Rodriguez, SS, Rangers

2001

Todd Helton, 1B, Rockies; Ichiro Suzuki, OF, Mariners

2000

Roberto Alomar, 2B, Indians; Darin Erstad, OF, Angels

1999

Ivan Rodriguez, C, Rangers; Robert Alomar, 2B, Indians; Larry Walker, OF, Rockies; Ken Griffey, Jr., OF, Mariners; Shawn Green, OF, Blue Jays

1998

Ivan Rodriguez, C, Rangers; Rafael Palmeiro, 1B, Rangers; Ken Griffey, Jr. OF, Mariners

1997

Ivan Rodriguez, C, Rangers; Craig Biggio, 2B, Astros; Chuck Knoblauch, 2B, Twins; Matt Williams, 3B, Indians; Larry Walker, OF, Rockies; Barry Bonds, OF, Giants; Ken Griffey, Jr, OF, Mariners

1996

Ivan Rodriguez, C, Rangers; Roberto Alomar, 2B, Orioles; Ken Caminiti, 3B, Padres; Barry Larkin, SS, Reds; Barry Bonds, OF, Giants; Ken Griffey, Jr. OF, Mariners

1995

Ivan Rodriguez, C, Rangers; Craig, Biggio, 2B, Astros; Barry Larkin, SS, Reds

1994

Ivan Rodriguez, C, Rangers; Jeff Bagwell, 1B, Astros; Craig Biggio, 2B, Astros; Matt Williams, 3B, Giants; Wade Boggs, 3B, Yankees; Barry Bonds, OF, Giants; Ken Griffey, Jr., OF, Mariners

1993

Robby Thompson, 2B, Giants; Matt Williams, 3B, Giants; Jay Bell, SS, Pirates; Barry Bonds, OF, Giants; Ken Griffey, Jr, OF, Mariners

1992

Roberto Alomar, 2B, Blue Jays; Larry Walker, OF, Expos; Andy Van Slyke, OF, Pirates; Barry Bonds, OF, Pirates; Kirby Puckett, OF, Twins

1991

Will Clark, 1B, Giants; Ryne Sandberg, 2B, Cubs; Cal Ripken, Jr., SS, Orioles; Barry Bonds, OF, Pirates’ Ken Griffey, Jr., OF, Mariners

1990

Benito Santiago, C, Padres; Ryne Sandberg, 2B, Cubs; Kelly Gruber, 3B, Blue Jays; Barry Bonds, OF, Pirates; Ellis Burks, OF, Red Sox

1989

Ryne Sandberg, 2B, Cubs; Eric Davis, OF, Reds; Kirby Puckett, OF, Twins; Tony Gwynn, OF, Padres

1988

Benito Santiago, C, Padres; Ryne Sandberg, 2B, Cubs; Andy Van Slyke, OF, Pirates; Kirby Puckett, OF, Twins

1987

Don Mattingly, 1B, Yankees; Ozzie Smith, SS, Cardinals; Tony Gwynn, OF, Padres; Eric Davis, OF, Reds; Kirby Puckett, OF, Twins; Andre Dawson, OF, Cubs

1986

Don Mattingly, 1B, Yankees; Frank White, 2B, Royals;Mike Schmidt, 3B, Phillies; Tony Gwynn, OF, Padres; Kirby Puckett, OF, Twins

1985

Don Mattingly, 1B, Yankees; Ryne Sandberg, 2B, Cubs; Lou Whitaker, 2B, Tigers; Tim Wallach, 3B, Expos; George Brett, 3B, Royals; Willie McGee, OF, Cardinals; Dale Murphy, OF, Braves; Dave Winfield, OF, Yankees

1984

Lance Parrish, C, Tigers; Keith Hernandez, 1B, Mets; Eddie Murray, 1B, Orioles; Ryne Sandberg, 2B, Cubs; Lou Whitaker, 2B, Tigers; Mike Schmidt, 3B, Phillies; Buddy Bell, 3B, Rangers; Dave Winfield, OF, Yankees; Dale Murphy, OF, Braves

1983

Lance Parrish, C, Tigers; Eddie Murray, 1B, Orioles; Lou Whitaker, 2B, Tigers; Mike Schmidt, 3B, Phillies; Dale Murphy, OF, Braves; Dave Winfield, OF, Yankees; Andre Dawson, OF, Expos

1982

Gary Carter, C, Expos; Mike Schmidt, 3B, Phillies; Robin Yount, SS, Brewers; Dale Murphy, OF, Braves; Dave Winfield, OF, Yankees

1981

Gary Carter, C, Expos; Manny Trillo, 2B, Phillies; Mike Schmidt, 3B, Phillies; Andre Dawson, OF, Expos; Rickey Henderson, OF, A’s; Dwight Evans, OF, Red Sox; Dusty Baker, OF, Dodgers

1980

Keith Hernandez, 1B, Cardinals; Cecil Cooper, 1B, Brewers; Andre Dawson, OF, Expos; Willie Wilson, OF, Royals

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Your Same-Season, Gold Glove/Silver Slugger combo winners listed alphabetically:

Alomar, Roberto … 1992; 1996; 1999; 2000

Altuve, Jose … 2015

Arenado, Nolan … 2015; 2016; 2017; 2018

Baker, Dusty … 1981

Bagwell, Jeff … 1994

Bell, Buddy … 1984

Bell, Jay (SS) … 1993

Beltre, Adrian (3B) … 2011

Beltran, Carlos (OF) … 2006; 2007

Biggio, Craig (2B) … 1994; 1995; 1997

Betts, Mookie (OF) … 2016; 2018

Boggs, Wade (3B) … 1994

Bonds, Barry … 1990; 1991; 1992; 1993; 1994; 1996; 1997

Boone, Brett … 2003

Brett, George … 1985

Burks, Ellis … 1990

Caminiti, Ken … 1996

Cano, Robinson … 2010; 2012

Carter, Gary … 1981; 1982

Chavez, Eric … 2002

Clark, Will … 1991

Cooper, Cecil …1980

Crawford, Brandon … 2015

Crawford, Carl … 2010

Dawson, Andre … 1980; 1981; 1983; 1987

Davis, Eric … 1987; 1989

Edmonds, Jim … 2004

Ellsbury, Jacob … 2011

Erstad, Darin … 2000

Evans, Dwight … 1981

Goldschmidt, Paul … 2013; 2015; 2017

Gonzalez, Adrian … 2011; 2014

Gonzalez, Carlos … 2010

Gordon, Dee … 2015

Green, Shawn … 1999

Griffey, Ken Jr. … 1991; 1993; 1994; 1996; 1997; 1998; 1999

Gruber, Kelly … 1990

Gwynn, Tony … 1986; 1987; 1989

Hampton, Mike … 2003

Hardy, J.J. … 2013

Headley, Chase … 2012

Helton, Todd … 2002

Henderson, Rickey … 1981

Hernandez, Keith … 1980; 1984

Eric Hosmer … 2017

Hunter, Torii … 2009

Jeter, Derek … 2006; 2009

Jones, Adam … 2013

Jones, Andruw … 2005

Kemp, Matt … 2009; 2011

Knoblauch, Chuck … 1997

Larkin, Barry … 1995; 1996

LaRoche, Adam  … 2012

Lee, Derrek … 2005

Markakis, Nick … 2018

Martin, Russell … 2008

Mattingly, Don … 1985; 1986; 1987

Mauer, Joe … 2008; 2009; 2010

McCutchen, Andrew … 2012

McGee, Willie … 1985

Molina, Yadier … 2013

Murphy, Dale … 1982; 1083; 1984; 1985

Murray, Eddie … 1983; 1984

Marcell Ozuna … 2017

Palanco, Placido … 2007

Palmeiro, Rafael … 1998

Parrish, Lance … 1983; 1984

Pedroia, Dustin … 2008

Salvador, Perez … 2016; 2018

Phillips, Brandon … 2011

Puckett, Kirby … 1986; 1987; 1988; 1989; 1992

Pujols, Albert … 2010

Renteria, Edgar … 2002

Ripken, Cal, Jr. … 1991

Anthony Rizzo … 2016

Rodriguez, Alex … 2002; 2003

Rodriguez, Ivan … 1994; 1995; 1996; 1997; 1998; 1999; 2004

Rolen, Scott … 2002

Rollins, Jimmy … 2007

Sandberg, Ryne … 1984; 1985; 1988; 1989; 1990; 1991

Santiago, Benito … 1988; 1990

Schmidt, Mike … 1981; 1982; 1983; 1984; 1986

Sizemore, Grady … 2008

Smith, Ozzie … 1987

Suzuki, Ichiro … 2001; 2007; 2009

Thompson, Robby … 1993

Tiexiera, Mark … 2005, 2009

Trillo, Manny … 1981

Tulowitzki, Troy … 2010; 2011

Van Slyke, Andy … 1988; 1992

Varitek, Jason … 2005

Walker, Larry … 1992; 1997; 1999

Wallach, Tim … 1985

White, Frank … 1986

Whitaker, Lou … 1983; 1984; 1985

Williams, Matt … 1993; 1994; 1997

Wilson, Willie … 1980

Winfield, Dave … 1982; 1983; 1984; 1985

Wright, David … 2007; 2008

Yount, Robin … 1982

Ryan Zimmerman … 2009

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2018 SILVER SLUGGER WINNERS

—American League

C – Salvador Perez, Royals

1B – Jose Abreu, White Sox

2B – Jose Altuve, Astros

3B – Jose Ramirez, Indians

SS – Francisco Lindor, Indians

OF – Mookie Betts, Red Sox

OF – Mike Trout, Angels

OF – J.D. Martinez, Red Sox

DH – J.D. Martinez, Red Sox

—National League

C – J.T. Realmuto, Marlins

1B – Paul Goldschmidt, Diamondbacks

2B – Javier Baez, Cubs

3B – Nolan Arenado, Rockies

SS – Trevor Story, Rockies

OF – Christian Yelich, Brewers

OF – David Peralta, Diamondbacks

OF – Nick Markakis, Braves

P – German Marquez

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DEFENSIVE AWARDS

Defense final

Rawlings Gold Glove … This is the most senior (and most recognized and publicized) defensive award, established in 1957. It is also considered the most subjective, with 75 percent of the results dependent on a vote of MLB managers and coaches and 25 percent on statistical defensive metrics (provided by MLB and the Society for American Baseball Research – SABR). The Gold Glove is awarded to one player at each position in each league.

The Fielding Bible Awards … Established in 2006, the Fielding Bible Awards are considered to be less subjective than the Gold Gloves. These awards are voted on by a panel of “sabermetrically” inclined and experienced journalists, and analysts. The Fielding Bible Award is given to one player at each position.

Wilson Defensive Player(s) of the Year … Established in 2012, this recognition is based on scouting reports, traditional defensive statistics and sabermetric measures like Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), Defensive Wins Above Replacement (dWAR) and other less self-explanatory statistics. The Wilson DPOY Award is given to one player at each position.

Primary resources:  MLB.com; Baseball-Reference.com; ESPN.com; FanGraphs.com

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BBRT Looks at the 2019 Today’s Game Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot

Photo by candyschwartz

Photo by candyschwartz

In addition to the traditional Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA) Hall of Fame voting, each year a group of candidates is considered by one of the Hall’s “Era” Committees, which include: Today’s Game (1988-present); Modern Baseball (1970-87); Golden Days (1950-69); and Early Baseball (1871-1949). The Today’s Game Committee recently announced the list of ten candidates to be considered for 2019 induction into the HOF – six players, three managers and one executive for induction into the Hall of Fame.

For BBRT’s take on this year’s upcoming Rookie of the Year Awards and the BBRT 2018 All-Rookie Team, click here.  For a look at the Cy Young, Most Valuable Player and Manager of the Year Awards, click here.

In this post, BBRT will look at the 2019 Today’s Game Hall of Fame candidates.  Before getting into the Today’s Game nominees, however, here’s a bit of background on the process.

The BBWAA Historical Overview Committee is responsible for identifying the ten candidates on each ballot and election requires that the candidate be named on 75 percent of the ballots cast by the 16 members of the Today’s Game Committee. (Voting will take place December 9.) To be eligible for consideration by the Today’s Game Committee, candidates must have made their greatest contributions to the national pastime since 1988.  In addition:

  • Players must have played in at least ten major league seasons and no longer be eligible for the traditional BBWAA ballot;
  • Managers and umpires must have served at least ten years in MLB and be retired for at least five years or over the age of 64 and retired for at least six months;
  • Executives must be retired from MLB for at least five years, although active executive over age 69 are also eligible.

This year’s nominees for consideration by the Today’s Game Committee are:

Players … Harold Baines, Albert Belle, Joe Carter, Will Clark, Orel Hershiser and Lee Smith.

Managers … Davey Johnson, Charlie Manuel and Lou Piniella.

Executives … George Steinbrenner.

Now, let’s look at each candidate and how BBRT sees their chances.  Spoiler Alert:  If BBRT had a ballot, I’d vote for: Lee Smith and Lou Piniella.  I anticipate the same results in the Committee vote, with Harold Baines and George Steinbrenner the leading dark horse candidates.

—Would Get BBRT’s Vote – If I had One – And Most Likely to Get Committee Support—

Lee Smith (RHP) … 1980-97

lee-smithFrom Baseball Roundtable’s perspective, Lee Smith should already be in the Hall of Fame.  However, in his 15 years on the traditional ballot, he never garnered more than 50.6 percent support – and never less than 29.9 percent.

Why does BBRT feel strongly about Lee Smith spot in the Hall? Smith’s 478 career saves put him third on the all-time list (he was number-one when he retired after the 1997 season).  He recorded 13 consecutive seasons (in an 18-year career) of 25 or more saves, a 3.03 lifetime ERA and 1,251 strikeouts in 1,289 innings pitched; led his league in saves four times; made seven All Star teams; and was the Rolaids Relief Man of the Year in three seasons.  Smith also is one of just 16 pitchers to appear in 1,000 or more MLB games.  His 1,022 appearances put him at number 13.

Smith pitched for the Chicago Cubs (1980-87); Boston Red Sox (1988-90); St. Louis Cardinals (1990-93); New York Yankees (1993); Baltimore Orioles (1994); California Angels (1995-96); Cincinnati Reds (1996); Montreal Expos (1997).

With the third most saves all-time, Smith gets BBRT’s vote.

Lee Smith’s best season:  1991, Cardinals … 6-3, 2.34 ERA, 47 saves, 73 innings pitched, 67 strikeouts.

Lou Piniella, Manager … 1986-2010; 23 seasons

LouLou Piniella managed (Yankees, Reds, Mariners, Devil Rays, Cubs) for 23 seasons.  His 1,835 wins (1,713 losses) are the 14th most wins by a manager in MLB history. He led the Reds to the 1990 World Series Championship and his teams made seven post-season appearances.  He also managed the Mariners to an AL-record 116 (46 losses) wins in the 2001 season.  The 116 victories tied the 1906 Cubs for the most wins in an MLB season (the Cubs had just 36 losses.) Piniella was named AL Manager of the Year in 1995 and 2001 (with the Mariners) and the NL Manager of the Year in 2008 (Cubs). He finished in the top three in Manager of the Year voting six times.  Piniella may be hurt by the fact that his teams finished under .500 in nine times.  Still, those three Manager of the Year Awards and his 116-victory campaign with the Mariners should enable him to squeak in.

Piniella also had an 18-season MLB career as a player, hitting .291, with 1,705 hits, 102 home runs and 766 RBI. He was the 1969 Rookie of the Year with the Royals and made the post-season five times with the Yankees (two World Series Championships). Piniella hit .305-3-19 in 44 post-season games.  Adding Piniella’s on-the-field career to his managerial record may give him a little extra push toward the HOF.   I believe the Committee will vote him in, but it will be close.

—Dark Horse Candidates – Close, but May Fall a Bit Short—

Harold Baines (OF/DH) … 1980-2001

Harold Baines had a 22-season MLB career. He was a six-time All Star and two-time winner of the Designated Hitter of the Year Award. He is in the top 50 players all-time in hits with 2,866 (46th) and RBI with 1,628 (34th). Baines, with a .289 career average, hit .300 or better in nine seasons. He was a steady source of power with 384 home runs, never reaching 30 in a season, but hitting 20 or more home runs in ten campaigns.  He drove in 100+ runs in three seasons and scored 1,299 runs in his career. Baines hit .324, with five home runs, 16 RBI and 14 runs scored in 31 post-season contests.  Harold Baines played for the White Sox (1980-1989, 1996-1997, 2000-2001); Rangers (1989-1990); A’s (1990-1992); Orioles (1993-1995, 1997-2000); and Indians (1999).

Tough call here.  However, the fact that Baines played more than half his games at DH works against him.  (To be elected as a DH, BBRT contends you to be more than a very good hitter; you have to be an exceptional batsman.) BBRT does not expect Baines to make it this year. I believe future Era Committees – after other primary DHs make the make the Hall – may give Baines stronger consideration (2,866 hits are hard to ignore.)

Harold Baines’ best season:  Baines’ best MLB campaign may have been 1999, when – at age 40 – he made his final All Star team and hit .312, with 25 home runs and 103 RBI, playing for the Orioles and Indians. That season, Baines also hit .357 (5-for-16), with one home run and four RBI in four post-season (ALDS) games.

George Steinbrenner, Executive/Owner … 1973-2010

There is no doubt that George Steinbrenner knew what it took to build a winning franchise. In his nearly 40 years as owner of the New York Yankees, Steinbrenner delivered 11 American League pennants and seven World Series Championships to the Big Apple. Still his candidacy may be hurt by his often-publicized disputes with MLB, his own players and his managers (as well as his two MLB suspensions). BBRT anticipates that Steinbrenner’s on-field success will be overshadowed by his off-field antics.

—Other Today’s Game Nominees (alphabetically)—

Albert Belle (OF) … 1989-2000

Albert Belle was a five-time All Star in a 12-season MLB career.  Belle was a power hitter who could also put the ball in play (381 career homers, .295 averages). He led his league in runs scored once, doubles once, home runs once, RBI three times, total bases three times and slugging percentage twice.  He is the only player to hit 50 doubles and 50 home runs in the same seasons (1995 – 52 doubles and 50 homers, both league-leading). He hit 30 or more home runs and drove in 100+ runs in eight straight seasons. He retired with 1,239 RBI and 974 runs scored. Belle also hit .405-6-14 in 18 post-season games.  Belle played for the Indians (1989-1996); White Sox (1997-1998); and Orioles (1999-2000).

A degenerative hip condition cut Belle’s career and chances on the traditional Hall of Fame ballot short (not to mention corked bat and issues with the media).  Those same factors are likely to preclude his getting the 75 percent vote he needs from the Committee. Two or three more solid seasons (getting to the 1,500 RBI or 450-home run mark) would have been helpful.

Albert Belle’s best season:  In 1995, Belle hit .317 and led the AL in home runs (50); RBI (126); runs scored (121); doubles (50); total bases (377); and slugging percentage (.690). Note:  The following season Belle went .311-48-148, with 124 runs scored – but only led the league in RBI. But what a pair of powerful back-to-back campaigns!

Joe Carter (OF/1B) … 1983-98

Joe Carter played 16 MLB seasons (Cubs, Indians, Blue Jays, Orioles, Giants).  He was a five-time All Star, topped 100 RBI ten times and hit 30 or more home runs in a seasons six times.   He finished his career with a .259 average (2,184 hits), 396 home runs, 1,445 RBI and 1,170 runs scored. His best season was likely 1991, when he hit .273, with 33 home runs, 108 RBI and 20 stolen bases for the Blue Jays. He led the AL in RBI in 1986, with 121 for the Indians (.302 average and 29 home runs.)

Carter’s .259 average and low base-on-balls total (527 career walks, never reaching 50 in a seasons) led to a .306 career on-base percentage – which does not seem like HOF territory to Baseball Roundtable.

Will Clark (1B) …  1985-2000

Will Clark was a six-time All Star and one-time Gold Glover in 15 MLB seasons.  He was a career .303 hitter, with 2,176 hits, 284 home runs and 1,205 RBI.  He led his league in runs and RBI once each.  Clark hit a career high 35 home runs in 1987 and topped 20 home runs six times and 100 RBI four times.  He hit .300 or better ten times, including .301 in his final season (130 games, split between the Orioles and Cardinals). In that final campaign, he hit .344-2-6 in eight post season games for the Cardinals. Overall, Clark played in 31 post season games, hitting .333-5-16.Clark played for the Giants (1986-1993); Rangers (1994-1998); Orioles (1999-2000); and Cardinals (2000).

Clark had a fine career, but his trademark was consistency, despite the .303 career average he collected “only” 2,176 hits and never won a batting title. (Clark did lead his league in RBI and Runs Scored once each.)  Three-hundred long balls or 2,500 hits would have helped his cause.

Will Clark’s best season: In 1989, with the Giants, Clark hit .333, with 23 home runs, 111 RBI and a league-leading 104 runs scored – finishing second in the NL MVP balloting. He was also MVP of the NL Championship Series, hitting .650, with two home runs and eight RBI in five games.

Orel Hershiser (RHP) … 1983-2000

Orel Hershiser logged 18 seasons on the MLB mound – winning 204 games (150) losses, with a 3.48 ERA and 2,014 strikeouts in 3,130 1/3 innings.  Hershiser captured the 1988 Cy Young Award (23-8, 2.26). He led his league in wins once, winning percentage once, complete games once, shutouts twice and innings pitched three times. Hershiser also won a Gold Glove in 1988 and a Silver Slugger Award in 1993 (when he hit .356 in 34 games for the Dodgers).  Hershiser was a 20+ game winner once and won 15 or more games in six seasons. He was a strong 8-3, 2.59 in 22 post-season games (18 starts).

From 1985-1989, Hershiser was one of the top pitchers in the game. Over those five seasons, he was 87-56, with a 2.69 ERA. He pitched more than 230 innings in each of those seasons, leading the league in innings pitched in 1987, 1988 and 1989.  In 1988, Hershiser set the MLB record for consecutive scoreless innings (59).  All that work may have contributed to his 1990 shoulder surgery.  Then, from 1990-2000, Hershiser went 106-86, 4.17 – a stretch that hurt his HOF chances. Note: Hershiser also led his league in losses twice and was above .500 in just nine of his 18 seasons. Hershiser played for the Dodgers (1983-1994, 2000); Indians (1995-1997); Giants (1998); and Mets (1999).

Orel Hershiser’s best season:  In 1988, Hershiser led the NL in wins with 23 (eight losses), complete games (15), shutouts (8), innings pitched (267), while recording a 2.26 ER and 178 strikeouts. That season he also set an MLB record, throwing 59 consecutive scoreless innings and earned the NL Championship Series and World Series MVP Awards.

Davey Johnson, Manager … 1984-2013- 17 seasons

After a 13-season playing career, Davey Johnson managed 17 seasons in the majors. He put up a 1,372-1,071 won-lost record and his .588 winning percentage is 12th among managers with at least ten seasons at the helm. Johnson led the Mets to the 1986 World Series Championship – and made the post-season a total of six times.  He was named NL Manager of the Year in 1972 and 2012.  He finished in the top three in Manager of the Year voting seven times. During his playing career, Johnson was a four-time All Star and a three-time Gold Glover (2B). He finished with a .261 average, 136 home runs and 609 RBI. In 1973, Johnson hit 43 home runs, 42 as a second baseman (the single season record for the position).

BBRT speculates that the presence of Lou Piniella on the ballot (with nearly 500 more managerial victories than Johnson) dampens Johnson’s chances for election.

Charlie Manuel, Manager … 2000-13

Charlie Manuel managed the Indians (2000-2002) and the Phillies (2005-15) – winning 1,000 games (826 losses) over 12 seasons. His teams won two NL pennants (2008-2009) and the 2008 World Series Championship. He also won the NL East title five straight seasons (2007-11).  His .548 winning percentage is 16th all-time among managers with at least ten years’ experience and his teams were under .500 only twice and topped 100 wins in 2011 (102-60). As a player, Manuel appeared in 242 games (outfield) over six seasons – hitting just .198, with four home runs and 43 RBI.  Again, if a manager is going to get the nod from the Today’s Game Committee, Lou Piniella has the inside track.

Primary resources:  MLB.com; Baseball-Reference.com

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