BBRT’s 2019 Preview Week continues with our Day Five look at the American League Central. Things, I will again caution continue to change – and, of course, there are still some “difference makers” out there on the free-agent market (like Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel). Once we’ve gone through the divisions, BBRT will wrap up (on Day Seven) with predictions for the major awards (ROY, CYA, MVP). Note: After the general comments, each team is reviewed in more detail. Keep in mind, these are just BBRT’s opinions and conjecture – not the result of any inside insight or info.
For the NL East Preview, click here.
For the NL Central, click here.
For the NL West, click here.
For the AL East, click here.
For the AL West, click here.
For the major awards, click here.
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AMERICAN LEAGUE CENTRAL
Indians
Twins (Wild Card)
White Sox
Tigers
Royals
The Indians – who, in 2018, became the first MLB team with four 200 strikeout pitchers in a season – should ride a rotation of Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, Carlos Carrasco, Mike Clevinger and Shane Bieber to the division title. They also should have enough power in the lineup (Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Carlos Santana) to hold off the Twins – but it will be a tougher go this time (there are some holes in the Cleveland lineup. The Twins added 88 home runs to their lineup (Nelson Cruz, C.J. Cron and Jonathan Schoop), are enjoying a revitalized Byron Buxton and have an improving rotation (Jose Berrios, Kyle gibbon and Michael Pineda). Questions in the bullpen and the dominance of Cleveland’s starting staff may restrict the Twins to a Wild Card spot. (I see competition for the Wild Card coming primarily form Oakland.) Chicago has some good young bats and arms and a new closer Alex Colome; but it’s along way back from 100 losses. Still, they seem to be moving in the right direction. The Tigers and Royals finished 13th and 14th in runs scored in the AL lasts season (only the Orioles score fewer) and did not do enough to improve.
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INDIANS – First Place

Corey Kluber, will lead a dominant rotation. Photo by apardavila 
Okay, in the name of transparency, I must admit I have a strong preference for good pitching and love 2-1 and 3-2 ball games. With that in mind, picking the Indians to win the AL Central was easy. They have, arguably, the best starting rotation in the American League. (Only the Astros could argue.)
In 2018, Indians starters put up a 3.39 earned run average – second in the AL only to the Astros 3.16. They also pitched the most innings of any AL starting staff (993 2/3), threw the most complete games (5) and fanned the second-most batters (1,066 to the Astros’ 1,101).
Let’s look at the rotation. It starts with Corey Kluber (20-7, 2.89, with 222 whiffs in 215 innings). The two-time Cy Young Award winner is like money in the bank. He has been an All Star in each of the past three seasons, going a cumulative 56-20, 2.77 and pitching 633 2/3 innings. Next up is a toss-up between Carlos Carrasco (17-10, 3.38, with 231 strikeouts in 192 innings) and Trevor Bauer (12-6, 2.21, with 221 strikeouts in 175 1/3 frames). Carrasco and Bauer have both gone 35-16 over the past two seasons. Mike Clevinger really makes the Indians’ Big Three a Big Four. He was 13-8, 3.02 last season – and fanned 207 batters in 200 innings. Finally, there is Shane Bieber. Just 24-years-old, Bieber went 11-5, 4.55 and fanned 118 batters in 114 2/3 innings – as a rookie.
In 2018, the Indians became the first MLB team to boast four 200-strikeout pitchers in the same season.
While the rotation seems set, the bullpen “not so much.” Gone, through free agency, are two key contributors: former closer Cody Allen (27 saves for the Indians in 2018) and elite set-up man Andrew Miller. That does not mean the cupboard is bare. Brad Hand – acquired in a trade with the Padres last July – saved 32 games last season. After coming over to the Indians, he went 0-1, 2.28 with eight saves in 28 appearances. Submariner Adam Cimber came over in the same trade and had a 3.42 ERA in 70 appearances for the Padres and Indians. Other bullpen pieces include: Tyler Olson (4.94 in 43 appearances: Dan Otero (5.22 in 51 appearances); and Neil Ramirez (4.54 in 47 appearances); and Oliver Perez (1.39 in 51 appearances). Closer appears to be in good Hands (pun intended), but the overall pen is more serviceable than exceptional.
Now to the lineup. It has power in the infield, but there are a more than a few weak points offensively. Let’s start with power points. The Indians will rely heavily on SS Francisco Lindor (.277-38-92, with 25 stolen bases – working his way back from a calf injury) and 3B Jose Ramirez (.270-39-105, with 34 steals). Both are capable of MVP-level performance. 2B Jason Kipnis hit .230-18-75, but the two-time All Star has shown some decline offensively. The Indians brought back Carlos Santana for 2019 (part of a three team trade – Indians/Mariners/Rays) to DH and possibly platoon at 1B. Santana hit .229-24-86 for the Phillies last season. He was with the Indians from 2010-17 and put up five seasons of 20 or more home runs and seven seasons of 74 or more RBI. Newcomer Jake Bauer (who came over in the same trade as Santana) could also see some time at the one bag. He was .201-11-48 in 96 games.
Things start to get a bit thin after this. The outfield seems up for grabs with garden duties perhaps shared by some combination of Tyler Naquin (.264-3-23 in 61 games); Leonys Martin (.255-11-33 in 91 games for the Tigers and Indians); recently signed Carlos Gonzalez (.276-16-64 in 132 games for the Rockies); and Greg Allen (.257-2-20, with 21 steals in 91 games.) Jake Bauer could also play some outfield – particularly if free-agent signee Hanley Ramirez (.254-6-29 for the Red Sox) takes a lot of DH at bats. Ramirez, however, is 35-years-old and was released by the Red Sox last May. Still, he hit 23 home runs in 2017 – and the Indians are looking to add to the offense.
At catcher, Yan Gomes (a 2018 All Star) is gone (trade, Nationals). The leading candidates to replace Gomes are Roberto Perez, Eric Haase and Kevin Plawecki (trade, Mets). In 2018, these three backstops hit a combined .189-9-50 in 433 at bats. Pawlecki may offer the best upside. He was .210-7-30 in 79 games for the Mets.
Things will be tighter in the Central Division this year, but the Indians should have the pitching to hold off the Twins.
KEY OFF-SEASON MOVE
Bringing back Carlos Santana (DH/1B). He brings some pop (24 home runs for the Phillies 2018) to a lineup that will need it – and he should be comfortable in Cleveland (where he played from 2010-17 and had five season of 20 or more long balls).
PLAYER TO WATCH
In 2018, Trevor Bauer went 12-6, 2.21 and fanned 221 batters, despite losing five weeks to a leg injury. He could be in for breakout season.
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TWINS – Second Place (Wild Card)
If the Indians had made the moves the Twins made in the off-season (adding the free-agent power bats of Nelson Cruz, C.J. Cron, Jonathan Schoop and Marwin Gonzalez … a total of 106 home runs last season), they would have run away with the division this year. The fact that the Twins, not the Indians (in apparent payroll reduction mode), made those moves has opened the door for the Twins to challenge for the Central Division crown. (Okay, I’m from Minnesota, maybe this is home-town thinking – but I’m sticking to it.)

Nelson Cruz, new Twins power source. Photo by Keith Allison 
Let’s take a look at the Twins, starting with the line-up. Free-agent (Mariners) DH Nelson Cruz is the key. Cruz went .256-37-97 a year ago – and has hit 37 or more home runs in each of the past five seasons. He may be 38, but the five-time All Star has plenty of pop left in his bat. (Ah, the luxury of the DH.) Over at 1B, the Twins added free agent (Rays) C.J. Cron (.253-30-74). The homers and RBI were career (five-season) highs, but Cron should be good for 25 long balls. The Twins also added Jonathan Schoop (free agent, Brewers) to handle second base. Schoop hit .233-21-61 in what was an off year. Finally, the Twins brought in free agent (Astros) Marwin Gonzalez (.247-16-68). Gonzalez can play anywhere on the diamond, but is likely to hold down third base until Miguel Sano returns from a foot injury. No matter where he plays, the Twins will give Gonzalez plenty of at bats.
In 2018, Marwin Gonzalez started 65 games in LF, 29 games at SS, 19 games at 2B, 21 games at 1B and 2 games at 3B.
The Twins returned some quality bats to the lineup as well. LF Eddie Rosario went .288-24-77; SS Jorge Polanco went .288-6-42 in 77 games (suspension); and RF Max Kepler put up a .224-20-58 line and is a plus-defender (with offensive upside). The surprise of the 2018 season may very well be Byron Buxton, who had a tough year in 2018 (.156-0-4 in 28 games … toe injury/migraines). Buxton is considered MLB’s fastest player and is a Gold Glove defender. The Twins have been waiting for him to deliver on his offensive potential and this might be the year. As this is written, Buxton is hitting .448-4-13 in 29 Spring Training at bats. If the 25-year-old has “figured it out,” a 20-20 season would be the low end of expectations. The Twins are also hoping for a breakout campaign for 3B Miguel Sano – currently recovering from an off-season heel injury. Sano has 25-30 home run power (.264-28-77 in 2017), but suffered through a down season in 2018 (.199-13-41 in 71 games). It will be interesting to see where he stands when he returns (expected in May). Jason Castro will likely handle the bulk of the catching. Notably, the Twins can put together a pretty solid bench from the likes of Ehire Adrianza, Willians Astudillo, Jake Cave, Ronald Torreyes and Zack Granite. This team will score some runs.
On the mound, the rotation is led by Jose Berrios (12-11, 3.84, with 202 strikeouts in 192 1/3 innings) and Kyle Gibson (10-13, 3.62). Also in the rotation is Jake Odorizzi (7-10, 4.49). Then there are the newcomers. Michael Pineda may be the key to the Twins chances to catch the Indians. Coming off 2017 Tommy John Surgery, Pineda is both high-reward and high risk. He last pitched in the majors for the Yankees in 2017, going 8-4, 4.39. The Twins also added Martin Perez (2-7, 6.22 in 2018 … elbow issues). Perez, a 13 –game winner in 2017, has looked sound in Spring Training. This is a workable rotation, with some positive upside, that can keep the Twins in games. It is not, however, a dominant staff like that of the Indians. That may be the difference in the Central.
Like the Indians, the Twins also have some questions in the bullpen – although they do have some solid arms. What they don’t have is a proven closer. (Craig Kimbrel is still out there guys.) It appears the ninth inning will belong to either Trevor May (4-1, 3.20 in 24 appearances) or free-agent signee Blake Parker. Parker, with 14 saves last season (2-1, 3.26, 70 strikeouts in 66 1/3 innings) appears to have the edge. Other bullpen assets include: Taylor Rogers (2.63 in 72 appearances) and Trevor Hildenberger (5.42 in 73 games).
Overall, the Twins look to give the Indians a run for their money, but the Indians’ rotation may be just too much. Now, if trade rumors surrounding some of the Cleveland staff come to fruition, the Twins could sneak by. I do think they’ve improved enough for a Wild Card berth.
KEY OFF SEASON-MOVE
The addition of DH Nelson Cruz and his 35-40 home run power will jolt the Twins offense.
PLAYER TO WATCH
An interesting story out of Spring Training has been 30-year-old Ryne Harper – working to make his MLB on-field debut. Harper was called up to the major (by the Mariners) in May of 2017 – but was sent back down about three weeks later without making an appearance. He signed a minor-league contract with the Twins in February of 2018 and pitched last season at AA and AAA. In eight minor league seasons, Harper is 29-24, 2.56 in 293 relief appearances. Harper, at this writing, has made eight appearances and thrown eight innings – with no earned runs and ten strikeouts. Like to see him get into an MLB box score. (Then, of course, there is the ongoing Minnesota Byron Buxton watch. Could this be THE year?)
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WHITE SOX – Third Place
I do like the direction White Sox squad and can’t see them losing 100 games again. They are also a few pieces away from .500, but are moving in the right direction. That should be good enough for third place in the Central Division.
Let’s start with the starting pitching. Reynaldo Lopez (7-10, 3.91 in 32 starts), sporting a high-90’s fastball and solid slider, looks like the real deal. Carlos Rodon (6-8, 4.18) continues to show hints of solid potential – and will be the Sox’ Opening Day starter. The Sox also added nine-year veteran Ivan Nova (trade Pirates), who was 9-9, 4.19 a year ago and could pass on some wisdom to the White Sox’ mound prospects (as well as chew up innings). The fourth spot in the rotation looks to belong to Lucas Giolito (10-13, 6.13, in 32 starts), while reports have veteran Ervin Santana and Manny Banuelos competing for the final spot. Both Santana and Banuelos have potential health issues to deal with. The Sox will be keeping an eye on prospect Michael Kopech, recovering from Tommy John surgery. Just 23-years-old, Kopech has five minor league seasons under his belt (24-22, 3.05 with 170 strikeouts in 126 1/3 innings). The point here is, the White Sox are working to build the rotation for the future.
The ChiSox did fortify the bullpen adding Alex Colome (trade, Mariners), who went 7-5, 3.04 with 12 saves in 2018, and free agent Kelvin Herrera (2-3, 2.44, with 17 saves for Washington and Kansas City a year ago). Colome, with a mid-90’s fastball had 47 saves for the Rays in 2017, should handle the ninth inning effectively for the White Sox. Herrera gives them a backup at closer and a reliable late inning setup man. Other key arms in the pen are: Sinkerballer Nate Jones (3.00 in 33 games); Jace Fry (4.38 in 59 appearances, with 70 strikeouts in 51 1.3 innings). and Juan Minaya (3.28 in 52 appearances).

Jose Abreu, reliable power in Chicago. Photo by rrescot 
Going to the lineup, three names to remember are: Jose Abreu, Yonder Alonso and Daniel Palka – they’ll be in the middle of it all. Abreu at 1B brings steady power (.265-22-68 in 2018 and 146 home runs in five MLB seasons). Switch hitter Alonso (acquired in a trade with the Indians) hit .250-23-83 a year ago and will bring some port-side power to the lineup at DH; and LF Palka went .240-27-67, but needs to cut down on his strikeouts (153 K’s in 417 at bats). SS Tim Anderson will also play a key offensive role – after a .240-20-64, 26-steal campaign. The remainder of the lineup looks like: Wellington Castillo (.259-6-15 in 49 games) at C, along with free-agent James McCann; Yolmer Sanchez (.242-8-55, with 14 steals at) 2B; Yoan Moncada (.235-17-61, with 12 steals) at 3B. The outfield will be filled out from among Jon Jay (.268-3-40 for the Royals and Diamondbacks); Adam Engel (.235-6-29, with 16 steals); and Leury Garcia. (.271-4-32, with 12 steals). Waiting in the wings is of prospect Elroy Jimenez – a .311 hitter with 65 home runs in five minor league seasons. Pretty sure he’ll be playing in Chicago some time this season.
The Sox get extra credit for being in the Manny Machado sweepstakes. It probably was no coincidence that they added Yonder Alonso (Machado’s brother-in-law) and Jon Jay (a Machado off-season workout partner) this off-season.
The Sox will be improved, but 75-78 wins might be the ceiling. Still, BBRT thinks they’ve made enough progress to finish ahead of the Royals and Tigers.
KEY OFF-SEASON MOVE
Trading for Alex Colome gave the White Sox one less worry for 2019 – they have a dependable and experienced closer.
PLAYER TO WATCH
At some time during the year, I expect to see Elroy Jimenez in the White Sox outfield. The 22-year-old already has five minor-league seasons under his belt – with a .311 average and 65 home runs. In 2018, he went .337-22-75 at Double A and Triple A. He’s close to ready and the White Sox are likely to give him a shot.
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TIGERS – Fourth place
The Tigers scored the second fewest runs in the AL in 2018 (630), hit the fewest home runs (135) and had fourth-lowest team batting average – and they didn’t take any major steps toward improvement.
In 2018, Nick Castellanos was the only Tiger to drive in more than 54 runs (89), hit more than 19 home runs (23) or (among qualifiers) bat higher than .269 (.298)

Miguel Cabrera – Comeback Player of the Year? The Bengals could use it. Photo by Keith Allison 
Detroit could take a small step forward if Miguel Cabrera (who missed much of last season with a torn biceps) can put himself into the running for Comeback Player of the Year. Cabrera is in his 16th MLB season – and the wear and tear is starting to show. Still, he is an 11-time All Star and four-time batting champ – and only two seasons removed from a .316-38-108 campaign. He will once again b in the middle of the lineup. Cabrera’s main support will come from RF Nick Castellanos (.298-23-89), a steady, professional hitter; newcomer, free-agent Josh Harrison (.250-8-38 in 97 games for the Pirates); and Niko Goodrum, who can really play around the diamond, and will get plenty of at bats after his .245-16-53, with 12 steals, a year ago. Also in the infield will be free-agent signee SS Jody Mercer (.251-6-39 with the Pirates); 3B Jeimer Candelario (.224-19-54); and C Grayson Greiner (.219-0-12 in 30 games and .266-4-23 at Triple A).
Joining Castellanos in the outfield, we are likely to see power-hitting prospect Christian Stewart (.267-2-10 in 17 games and .263-25-80 at three minor league stops) in LF and Jacoby Jones (.207-11-34, with 11 steals) in CF. DH may be by committee with John Hicks, Mikie Mahtook and, at times, Cabrera.
On the mound, the rotation will miss Michael Fulmer (knee). It now looks like the rotation will include Jordan Zimmerman (7-8, 4.52), Mathew Boyd (9-13, 4.39), Daniel Norris (0-5, 5.68), Matt Moore (3-8, 6.79 with the Rangers) and free-agent signee Tyson Ross (8-9, 4.15 for the Cardinals and Padres). Last season, no Tiger pitcher won more than nine games – and Mike Fiers was the only starter with a winning record (7-6, 3.48). Fiers, by the way, was traded to the A’s in mid-season. Tyson Ross looks like the best bet to reach double-digit wins for Detroit. The nine-season MLB veteran has a killer slider. He was 2014 All Star and has twice exceeded 30 starts and reached double-digit wins in a season.
In the pen, Shane Greene (32 saves, but a 5.12 ERA) will close. Greene did fan 65 batters in 63 1.3 innings. If Greene falters, 24-year-old Joe Jimenez is ready to step up. Jimenez was a bright spot in the pen, going 5-4, 4.31 and fanning 78 batters in 62 2/3 innings. Others in the pen could include Daniel Stumpf (4.93 in 56 games), Buck Farmer (4.15 in 66 games) and Drew Verhagen (4.63 in 41 games). I wouldn’t be surprise to see some young arms earning MLB auditions in the Tiger pen over the course of the season. Heck, depending how the season goes, we may even see old-schooler Ron Gardenhire try the Rays “Opener” and “Bullpen Days” strategies.
KEY OFF-SEASON MOVE
The Tigers were not very active this off-season. BBRT will go with Tyson Ross for this recognition. At 8-9, 4.15 for the Cardinals and Padres a year ago, he seems the Tiger most likely to put up double-digit wins.
PLAYER TO WATCH
BBRT likes Blaine Hardy. The 32-year-old lefty went 4-5, 3.56 in 30 games (13 starts). His career record is 13-9, 3.60. I’d be tempted to give him a few more starts – a fitting reward for ten minor-league campaigns (39-23, 2.68). I do love to see perseverance rewarded. (There is also, of course, the Miguel Cabrera watch.)
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ROYALS – Fifth Place
The Royals dropped 104 games last season – and there is no shortage of reasons why. They scored the third-fewest runs in the American League, while giving up the fourth-most. Their team ERA (4.94) was the AL’s second-highest. From a power standpoint, they hit 155 home runs and gave up 205. As BBRT looks at the direction the Royals are taking in “recovery,” it appears speed and defense are among the priorities.

Whit Merrifield makes the Royals’ offense go. Photo by Keith Allison 
In the off season they added free-agent CF Billy Hamilton (.236-4-29, with 34 stolen bases). Hamilton provides speed on the bases and covers a lot of ground on defense – but needs to get on base more. Hamilton will probably bat in the number-nine spot, which means a couple of additional speedsters will follow (the second time through the order). Whit Merrifield is back at 2B. He a plus defender and, last year, led MLB in hits (192) and stolen bases (45). He hit .304 – and added 12 home runs. Right after Merrifield in the order, we’re likely to see SS Adalberto Mondesi. The 23-year-old takes over full-time from the departed Alcides Escobar. Last season, in just 75 games, Mondesi hit .276, with 14 home runs, 37 RBI and 32 steals. These could be the “Running Royals” of 2019. The Royals will need Mondesi’s power-potential to be realized, since they lost their most reliable power source C Salvador Perez – to Tommy John surgery. Perez had put up the identical total of 27 home runs and 80 RBI in each of the last two seasons. In 2018, he was, in fact, the team leader in home runs and RBI. How much are they losing? Kansas City signed Martin Maldonado (free agent) to handle the catching. In 2018, Maldonado went .223-9-44 for the Angels and Astros.
In the middle of the lineup, the Royals are looking to 1B Ryan O’Hearn (.262-12-30 in 44 games); six-time Gold Glover LF Alex Gordon (.245-13-54, with 12 steals); and DH Jorge Soler (.265-9-28 in 61 games … foot fracture). Third base should go to Hunter Dozier .229-11-34 in 102 games, while RF looks to go some combination of Bret Phillips, Brian Goodwin and Chris Owings. Owings (.206-4-22 in 106 games) can play multiple positions – adding to his bench value.
The Royals will annoy a lot of people with their speed, but there is not enough offense (particularly without Perez) to make a move up in the standings.
The rotation will be led by Danny Duffy (8-12, 4.88) – who has been working his way through shoulder issues. Brad Keller (9-6, 3.08 in 41 games/20 starts) – showing great potential (and a mid-90’s sinking fastball) his rookie season. Joining Duffy and Keller will be Jakob Junis (9-12, 4.37); innings-eater Ian Kennedy (3-9, 4.26 in 22 starts); and, most likely, Jorge Lopez (2-5, 5.03). Chris Ellis and Health Fillmyer are other possibilities for the fifth spot. Fillmyer (4-2, 4.26) could also slot into long relief.
The bullpen will be led by new closer free-agent signee Brad Boxberger (3-7, 4.39 with 32 saves for the Diamondbacks). Wily Peralta (1-0, 3.67, with 14 saves in 37 appearance), who has thrived in a relief role, should serve as a late-inning setup man and pick up a few saves along the way. After coming over form the Brewers, Peralta notched 14 saves in 14 opportunities for the Royals. Among the others likely to be in the pen are Kevin McCarthy (3.25 in 65 appearances), Tim Hill (4.53 in 70 games) and Jake Diekman (4.73 in 71 games for Texas and Arizona.) The bullpen could prove a Royals’ strength in 2018.
KEY OFF-SEASON MOVE
Signing Brad Boxberger free agent Brad Boxberger (32 saves a year ago, 41 in 2015) really lengthens and strengthens the Royals’ bullpen. The question is, “How many leads will he be given to protect?)
PLAYER TO WATCH
23-year-old Adalberto Mondesi, taking over at shortstop, promises to bring a combination of speed and power to the Royals. The fleet switch-hitter went .276-14-37, with 32 steals in just 75 games. Mondesi appear to have “found it,” after hitting just .181 in 72 MLB games in 2016-17. BBRT will be watching to see how he fares in a full MLB campaign.
NEXT UP – THE AMERICAN LEAGUE WEST
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