Spring Training is approaching and it’s time, once again, for BBRT bring out my sometimes empty, often opaque and only occasionally accurate crystal ball.  In this post, I’ll provide my predictions for the upcoming National League races, as well as for the NL’s key awards (Cy Young, Rookie of the Year, MVP winners).  Following a brief look at these races, I’ll also provide (for baseball “fan-addicts”)  an in-depth look at how each team appears to line up.  (Keep in mind, there are still a few free agents out there, and Spring Training performance and injuries can also alter Opening Day rosters. Plus, of course, the predictions are really just informed speculation.) Read to the double blue line for the “executive summary,” go beyond for the in-depth analysis. (Coming soon, will be the American League prediction post.)

Spoiler alert: Overall, BBRT expects close races in each and every NL Division – with plenty of smiles from the East Coast (New York City) to the Central States (Chicago) to the West Coast (San Francisco). So, let’s get to it. 

Trivia Fans

If you are baseball trivia fan, you may want to try BBRT two 99-question trivia quizzes. Click here for Quiz One or here for Quiz Two.

 

NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST

A close race, with the Mets edging the Nationals.

Division Title – NY Mets …. A host of quality young arms in the rotation (Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey, Noah Syndergaard, Steve Matz), a solid bullpen and the retention of Yoenis Cespedes (for both his bat and the emotional boost) in the Lucas Duda/Curtis Granderson-led lineup will be enough to defend the East title.  Veteran 2B Neil Walker replaces post-season hero Daniel Murphy, and the Mets don’t skip a beat.

 

Second Place – Washington Nationals … Had the Nationals spirited Yeonis Cespedes away from the rival Mets, BBRT might have flip-flopped the NL East prediction.  The Nats have a rotation  (Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Tanner Roark and Joe Ross) that would be the envy of many teams – just not the Mets.  They also have a potentially powerful lineup led by MVP Bryce Harper.  Still, to overtake their New York rivals, Washington needs better health from key members of the offense (Ryan Zimmerman, Anthony Rendon and Jayson Werth – none of whom played 100 games a year ago).

Third Place – Miami Marlins

Miami’s will offer some interesting baseball – Giancarlo Stanton’s power; Dee Gordon’s speed and defense; Jose Fernandez’ live arm – there’s just not enough depth or experience to compete with the Mets and Nationals.

Fourth Place – Philadelphia Phillies

Still rebuilding, enough said.  The Phillies were outscored by 184 runs last year – another tough campaign ahead.

Fifth Place – Atlanta Braves

Gone are big names like Andrelton Simmons, Justin Upton, Craig Kimbrel, Shelby Miller, Evan Gattis. Fans may want to track the progress on the new stadium – and its future inhabitants  – like Dansby Swanson, Sean Newcomb and Aaron Blair.

NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL

Cubs and Cardinals fight it out for first place – second place finisher captures a Wild Card Spot. Pirates fall just short of post-season.

Division Title – Chicago Cubs

 

The Cubs did not rest on their 2015 (97-win) laurels.  They raided the division-rival Cardinals for CF Jason Heyward and number-three starter John Lackey, and added the steady and versatile Ben Zobrist.   They also return 2015 Cy Young Award-winner Jake Arietta (a 22-game winner), Rookie of the Year Kris Bryant and a host of young talent.   Add in Joe Maddon again at the helm and you have the East Division winner.

Second Place – St. Louis Cardinals – Wild Card

The Cardinals were the only team to win 100 games last year, and still edged out the number-two and three teams in their Division by just three games.  Now they’ve lost two key free agents (CF Jason Heyward and SP John Lackey) to one of those rivals and number-two starter Lance Lynn to Tommy John surgery.

Still, the Redbirds have a well-balanced veteran line up, led by Matt Carpenter, Matt Holliday and Johnny Peralta, as well as a solid rotation (particularly with staff ace Adam Wainwright, who missed most of last season, back). The bullpen, led by closer Trevor Rosenthal, is also strong.  What may determine the Cardinals’ ability to repeat as Division leader is how quickly Yadier Molina (a team leader and arguably the best catcher in baseball) returns from a pair of off-season thumb surgeries. BBRT’s see the Cardinals as the Wild Card, but a division title is not out of reach – remember they won 100 games a year ago, when Wainwright started only four games.

Third Place – Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates have made the playoff three seasons in a row, but they may fall one starting pitcher and one more potent infield bat short of the playoffs this year.  Their strength remains in the OF – manned by consistent MVP candidate CF Andrew McCutchen, rising star LF Starling Marte and the emerging Gregory Polanco in right. The infield provides less offense – particularly if 3b Jung Ho Kang (broken leg late last season) is not ready for Opening Day. The starting rotation is led by Gerrit Cole (19-8, 2.60) and 12-game winner Francisco Liriano, but still has some question marks in the back end.  The bullpen, led by closer Mark Melancon should again be a strength.  Look for a winning season, but not a playoff spot.

Fourth Place – Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers are building for the future – and it looks to be more than a season away. The bright spots are RF Ryan Braun’s 2015 performance (.285 -25- 84,with 24 steals); LF Khris Davis’ 25+ homer power; starting pitcher Zach Davies’ potential; and Jonathan Lucroy’s improved health. The situation in Milwaukee may be best reflected in Lucroy’s off-season request to be moved to a contender.   On the mound, the rotation offers no true ace, and the bullpen (since the trade of Francisco Rodriguez) no proven closer (although it does have a number of quality arms).

 Fifth Place – Cincinnati Reds

This off-season, the Reds’ signaled their intentions for 2015, when they traded away Aroldis Chapman’s power arm and Todd Frazier’s power bat. Already gone in mid-season trades were experienced starters Johnny Cueto and Mike Leake. While the Reds rebuild, All Star 1B Joey Votto (.314-29-80) will still be worth watching.  However, fans may spend a lot of time watching him walk to first base. Last season, Votto drew a league-leading 143 walks.  With less protection in the lineup, he may surpass that total in 2016.

NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST

A tough race headed up by the Giants, with the Dodgers earning a Wild Card spot.  If the Dodgers’  incoming starting pitchers falter, the Diamondbacks could grad the Wild Card bid.

Division Title – San Francisco Giants

The Giants win the World Series in even-numbered years (see 2010-2012-2014).  Who am I to contradict the baseball Gods.  Actually, BBRT likes the Giants on the basis of: 1) the free-agent signings of starters Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija – complementing staff ace Madison Bumgarner, resurgent Jake Peavy and Chris Heston; 2) a well-balanced under-rated line up (Buster Posey, Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford, Joe Panik, Hunter Pence and more; 3) the rival Dodgers loss of Zack Greinke; and 4) the Diamondbacks’ lack of offensive depth.

 Second Place – Los Angeles Dodgers – Wild Card

They may have lost Zack Greinke, but the Dodgers still have MLB’s best pitcher in Clayton Kershaw. And, you can expect LA to get the most out of the rest of the rotation including two important off-season acquisitions – Scott Kazmir and Japanese star Kenta Maeda. The lineup looks solid, led by run-producing machine 1B Adrian Gonzalez (.275-28-90) and early Rookie of the Year favorite SS Corey Seager.  There are some questions, however, like can OF Joc Pederson retain his power and cut down on his strikeouts and just exactly what role will Yasiel Puig play.  Still, the Dodgers look to have enough to earn a Wild Card spot.

Third Place  – Arizona Diamondbacks

Anytime you can start a roster with Paul Goldscmidt (.321-33-110, with 21 steals) and free-agent signee Zack Greinke (19-3, 1.66), you’ve got something going for you.  Add five-tool CF A.J. Pollock (.315-20-76, 38 steals); LF Dave Peralta (.312-17-78, with nine steals); and number-two starter (another free-agent) Shelby Miller – and you can expect to be in the hunt.  The Diamondbacks will be there.  They just don’t seem to have the depth of the Giants or Dodgers, so – unless one of those two falter – third place seems the most realist finish.  However, if the Dodgers’ off-season acquisitions don’t deliver, the Diamondbacks could easily move past the LA squad.

Fourth Place – San Diego Padres

The Padres are rebuilding and the future looks bright – ff fans can be patient.  How focused on the future is San Diego?  In a two-day span this past November, the Padres moved  veterans Joaquin Benoit and Craig Kimbrel in trades that brought them five of their current top twenty prospects.

Fifth Place – Colorado Rockies

Lots of offense, particularly at home – and MLB’s worst earned run average. Until the Rockies can attract pitchers who can adjust to the  Coors Field factor (and actually want to pitch there), they are unlikely to contend. Still, they have foundation in players like Nolan Arenado (with 40-homer power and three Gold Gloves); 2B DJ Le Mahieu (a speedy .300 hitter with a GoldcGlove of his own); and the likes of CF Charlie Blackmon and  RF Carlos Gonzalez.

NATIONAL LEAGUE AWARD WINNERS – TOP CONTENDERS

 MVP

1. Bryce Harper, Nationals – Big (Miguel Cabrera-like) bat keeps Nationals in the race, earns him a second MVP Award.
2. Paul Goldschmidt, D-Backs – Arizona’s 1B does it all (average, power, speed) as Diamondback stay close to Giants and Dodgers; perhaps grab a playoff spot.
3. Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers – Kershaw picks up the Greinke-loss slack, leads LA to Division title.

CY Young Award

1. Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers – Best pitcher in baseball is challenged to up his game after Greinke loss, and he responds.
2. Jake Arietta, Cubs – Proves 2015 no fluke. Remember: 1^st half ERA of 2.66; 2cnd half ERA of 0.75.
3. Zack Greinke, Diamondbacks – Accepts the pressure of being number-one starter, keeps Arizona in the race.

Rookie of the Year

1. Corey Seager, Dodgers – SS retained rookie status, while hitting .337-4-17 in 27 2015 games.
2. Steven Matz, Mets – Still a rookie, Matz started six games for Mets last season, went 4-0, 2.27.
3. Jose Peraza, Reds – A long shot, but rebuilding Reds may give versatile Peraza (2B, SS, OF) a call up. He hit .293 with 33 steals at Triple A last season, and has a .302 average over five minor league seasons.

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READ ON ONLY IF YOU ARE A “FAN-ADDICT

DETAILED LOOK AT ALL NL TEAMS

NL EAST

New York Mets – First Place

The Mets solidified their bid to repeat as champions of the East when they resigned Yeonis Cespedes (in the process, keeping his bat away from the rival Nationals).  The foundation for their 2016 success, however, is their starting rotation – which may be even better in 2016.

The Mets’ rotation starts with Jacob deGrom and Matt Harvey. Twenty-seven-year-old deGrom went 14-8, with a 2.54 ERA and 205 strikeouts in 191 innings, while Harvey (in his first year back from Tommy John surgery) gave the Mets 13 wins versus eight losses, with a 2.71 ERA in 29 starts. Harvey, who will be 27 when the season opens, struck out 188 batters in 189 1/3 innings.  Twenty-three-year-old Noah Syndergaard has long been touted as a top prospect. He started last season at Triple A (3-0, 1.82), making his major league debut in mid-May.  The 6’ 6” hurler lived up to his hype and his height, going 9-7, 3.24 in 24 starts.  Syndergaard whiffed 166 batters in 150 innings. Next up is 24-year-old Steven Matz (BBRT likes low-scoring games and reviewing this Mets’ rotation is like being a kid looking over the offerings in a candy shop).  Last season, Matz went a combined 8-4, 2.05 in 19 games at High A, AA and AAA before a June call up.  For the Mets, the southpaw went 4-0, 2.27 in six starts, striking out 34 batters in 35 2/3 innings.  He threw few enough innings to retain his rookie status, and is an early Rookie of the Year favorite. The fifth starter (at least until Zack Wheeler’s expected mid-season return from Tommy John surgery) brings some truly veteran savvy to the staff.  It’s likely to be Bartolo Colon (who turns 43 in early April). The ageless Colon went 14-13, with a 4.16 ERA for the Mets last season – and had his best year at the plate, with eight hits and four RBI. Chalk one up for us oldsters.  When Wheeler (who sat out the 2015 season) comes back, he’ll be another under-thirty starter (he turns 26 in May). In 2014, Wheeler went 11-11, 3.54 and fanned 187 hitters in 184 1/3 innings. The “Young Guns Plus Bartolo” rotation is backed up by a relief corps with a pretty good arsenal of its own. Closer Jeurys Familia went 2-2, 1.85 with 43 saves in 2015, striking out better than a batter per inning. Set-up man Addison Reed notched a 3.38 ERA in 55 appearances (and could close for many teams) – and there was more support from the likes of Erik Goedell, Hansel Robles and lefty Sean Gilmartin.

Offensively, the Cespedes signing was a key. After coming over to the Mets from the Tigers in a mid-2015 trade, Cespedes hit .287, with 17 home runs and 44 RBI in 57 games (on the full season, Cespedes hit .291-35-105). Even with Cespedes’ production, the Mets’ scored the seventh-most runs in the NL and had the second-lowest batting average, so keeping his bat in the fold was critical.  While the pitching staff looks to the under-30 set to lead the way, the offense is not quite as young.  Cespedes is 30 and the Mets are also counting on offense from  34-year-old 3B David Wright (.289-5-17 in 38 games – back issues), 1B Lucas Duda (who will be thirty in February – and who went .244-27-73 last season) and RF Curtis Granderson (35 on Opening Day and .259-26-70, with 98 runs and 11 steals a year ago). At 2B, 30-year-old Neil Walker (.269-16-71 for the Pirates) replaces departed (free agency) post-season hero Daniel Murphy. You can expect to see free-agent signee Asdrubel Cabrera (also 30-years-old) at SS.  Cabrera was .265-15-58 for the Rays last season.  The addition of Cabrera and Walker adds flexibility to the Mets’ lineup, as last year’s starting SS, Wilmer Flores (.263-16-58), should see plenty of playing time at 2B, 3B and SS. Travis d’Arnaud (.268-12-41 in 67 games) should be behind the plate as long as his health holds up.  Last season d’Arnaud suffered through a broken hand (hit by pitch) and elbow injury (home plate collision).  The final lineup spot (LF) likely will be contested by Michael Conforto, Juan Lagares and Alejandro De Aza, with Conforto BBRT’s expected winner. Any of these three could also be packaged in a trade.

Ultimately, the Mets have more than enough pitching – and, with Cespedes on board, just enough offense to repeat as East Division Champions.

Washington Nationals – Second Place

As the 2015 season opened, the Washington Nationals were the defending AL East Champions (having won the Division by a 17-game margin in 2014), were led by 2014 NL Manager of the Year Matt Williams, had added 2013 AL Cy Young Award winner Max Scherzer to their staff and were odds-on favorites to repeat.  Then, RF Bryce Harper went on to capture the 2015 NL MVP award, Scherzer threw two no-hitters, the team led the East in runs scored and allowed the second-fewest runs in the Division – and still finished second to the NY Mets, costing Williams his job.  With Washington’s lack of success in the off-season market place  (they missed on Jason Heyward, Ben Zobrist and Cespedes), it appears another second place finish is in store in 2016. .

Don’t get me wrong, there is plenty of talent on this team – if they can stay healthy. The Nationals opened the 2015 season with six players on the Disabled List – and that proved a portent of thing to come. It was a tough year with such key players as 1B Ryan Zimmerman, 3B Anthony Rendon, LF Jayson Werth, now-departed CF Denard Span and number-two starter Stephen Strasburg all spending time on the DL – and the Nationals still finished just seven games behind the Mets.

The Nats are hoping for better health (and results) in 2016. Their opportunity to make up ground on the Mets starts with the pitching staff – and it’s a good one, headed by  Scherzer (14-12, 2.79 with 276 strikeouts in 228 2/3 innings) and Strasburg (11-7, 3.46, with 155 whiffs in 127 1/3 innings, but only 23 starts).  Behind these two, there are southpaw Gio Gonzalez 11-8, 3.79), Tanner Roark (4-7, 4.38, but just one season removed from 15-10, 2.85) and youngster Joe Ross (5-5. 3.64 after an early June MLB debut).  It’s a staff that would be the envy of many teams, just not the Mets. The Nationals clearly will miss Jordan Zimmerman (13-10. 3.66 last season – and 46-24 for Washington over the past three seasons), who signed as a free agent with Detroit.  (Payback for Washington’s free-agent signing of former-Tiger Scherzer?)

The bullpen appears solid, with closer Jonathan Papelbon (2.13 ERA, 24 saves in 26 opportunities) back, supported by (among others) Felipe Rivero (2.79 in 49 games), Blake Treinen (3.86 in 60 games) and free-agent signee Yusmeiro Petit (3.67 in 42 games for the Giants). The real question in the pen may be whether last season’s Papelbon/Harper dust-up has been put behind them.

On a positive note, it appears things have calmed in the clubhouse. The Nationals indicated confidence in Papelbon with the trade of Drew Storen (29 saves in 2015) to the Blue Jays for CF/lead-off hitter Ben Revere (.306-2-45, with 84 runs and 31 steals).  Of course, the key to the offense is 2015 MVP Bryce Harper – just 23 and entering his fifth MLB season. In 2015, Harper delivered the season the Nationals have been waiting for (.330-42-99). Additional power should be provided by veterans 1B Ryan Zimmerman (.249-16-73 in just 95 games a year ago) and LF Jayson Werth (.221-12-42 in 88 games). Youngster Anthony Rendon (25-years-old), going into just his fourth MLB season, fought through injuries in 2015 and hit .264 with five home runs and 25 RBI in 80 games.  In 2015, he played a full season and went .287-21-83. The Nationals could use that healthy production. Free-agent signee (Mets) Daniel Murphy (.281-14-73 last year) will take over as 2B, while Danny Espinosa (.240-13-37) returns to handle SS (at least until prospect Trea Turner, who hit .322 at Double and Triple A last year, is ready). Wilson Ramos provides bottom of the order pop (.229-15-68) at catcher.

Overall, the Nationals have talent and they’ll again give the Mets a run for their money.  Too many things, however, have to fall into place for them to take the Division title.  Before the Cespedes signing, BBRT saw the NL East as a toss-up. Cespedes give the Mets the edge they need – offensively and, perhaps, psychologically – to hold off the Nationals in a close race.

Miami Marlins – Third Place

In 2015, the Marlins finished 29^th among MLB’s 30 teams in runs scored, home runs, RBI and total bases. (Fortunately for them, the team that finished dead last in those categories, Atlanta, plays in the same division.)  Despite the dismal offense and disappointing attendance (28^th in MLB and lowest in the NL), there is some interesting baseball to see in Miami.

RF Giancarlo Stanton is a premier power hitter (his home runs are frequent and far, despite the reputation of Marlins Park for swallowing long balls.)  The former NL HR champion hit 27 home runs in just 74 games last season (broken hand) and is touted as MLB’s next 50-homer player. Dee Gordon is a speed merchant (NL stolen base leader the last two seasons), who captured the 2014 NL batting championship.  Jose Fernandez is a former Rookie of the Year and projects as a future Cy Young Award winner if healthy (he’s already had Tommy John Surgery). Last year, Fernandez went 6-1, 2.92 in 11 starts). Gordon and SS Adeiny Hechavarria provide highlight reel defense up the middle. Gordon earned a Gold Glove last season and Hechavarria was a finalist. Still, the lineup does have holes, particularly in the power department, and the pitching staff appears thin.

The top of the batting order is solid. Leading off is Gordon (who won the NL batting title at .333, led the league in hits with 205 and also topped the NL in steals at 58). Batting second is 3B Martin Prado, a steady MLB hitter (.288-9-63 in 2015), with a 291 career average (10 seasons). There is, however, little protection for Stanton in the middle of the line-up. Surrounding the long-ball specialist are LF Christian Yelich, who hit .300 in 126 games, but only notched seven home runs and 44 RBI) and CF Marcell Ozuna (.259-10-44).  At the bottom of the order, it looks to be 1B Justin Bour (.262-23-73), catcher J.T.  Realmuto (.259-10-47) and SS Hechavarria (a decent bat at .281-5-48).

Moving to the mound, there’s a notable drop off after Fernandez. Among the likely starters are Tom Koehler (11-14, 4.08) and Jarred Cosart (2-5, 4.52 in 13 starts, but a 13-game winner in 2014).  The rotation also may include a couple of young southpaws who made their major league debut with the Marlins this past June: Adam Conley (who was 9-3, 2.52 at Triple A; and then 4-1, 3.76 for the Marlins) and Justin Nicolino (7-7, 3.52 at Triple A; 5-4, 4.01 for the Marlins).  Also in the mix are veterans Edwin Jackson and Brad Hand. The bullpen is led by capable closer A.J. Ramos (2.30 ERA with 32 saves), supported by Carter Capps (1.16 in 30 games), Mike Dunn (4.50 in 72 games) and Bryan Morris (3.14 in 67 appearances).

Baseball in Miami should be interesting – from Jose Fernandez’ live arm to Giancarlo Stanton’s power bat to the speed and defense of Dee Gordon.  There’s just not enough depth to compete with the Mets and Nationals.  BBRT sees another third-place finish for the Marlins.

Philadelphia Phillies – Fourth Place

How times have changed. In 2011, the Phillies went 102-60 and outscored the opposition by 183 runs. In 2015, the Phillies went 63-99 and were outscored by 184 runs.  That pretty much sums up the recent direction of the now-rebuilding Phillies.

A big question for the 2016 Phillies is how many games will Ryan Howard play?  Going back to 2011, Howard hit .253, with 33 home runs and 116 RBI – his sixth straight season of 30+ HR and 100+ RBI.  In 2015, Howard hit .229-23-77 – his fourth straight campaign of less than 25 HRs and less than 100 RBI. At this point speculation is that Howard will share 1B and a spot in the middle of the lineup with Darin Ruf (.235-12-39 in 106 games.). Third base and a spot in the 3-, 4- or 5-hole seems to be reserved for 23-year-old Maikel Franco, who looked solid in 2015 (.280-14-50 in 80 games). Franco, in fact, may be the best hitter on this team. Second base could go to Cesar Hernandez (.272-1-35 with 19 steals), although there has  been talk of converting 23-year-old CF Odubel Herrera (.297-8-41, 16 steals) to the keystone sack.  Herrera, a former Rule 5 pick-up, looks to be part of the future for the rebuilding Phillies wherever he plays. If that should be second base, Hernandez can be a valuable utility man for this team. He made his MLB debut last year, after running up a .294 average in six minor league seasons. Shortstop should be handled by Freddy Galvis (.263-7-50), with Cameron Rupp (.233-9-28) and Carlos Ruiz (.211-2-22 in 86 games) again splitting the catching.  Before the year is out, we may see top prospect J.P Crawford at SS. At this point, the outfield appears unsettled.  If Herrera moves to 2B, the likely OF starters are Peter Bourjos (.200-4-13) in CF; flanked at times by flycatchers drawn from: Aaron Altherr (.241-5-22 in 39 games); Cody Asche (.245-12-39); and, possibly, Rule 5 draftee Tyler Goeddel (.279-12-72, with 28 steals at Double A).Twenty-two-year-old  Nick Williams  could also get a long look (although he may need more seasoning), after going .303-17-55 in two Double A stops last season.

Going to the mound, we see much the same story.  In 2011, the Phillies had the NL’s lowest ERA at 3.02. Last season, they were 14^th in the NL at 4.69 (only Colorado was worse at 5.04).  The rotation will be led Jeremy Hellickson (9-12, 4.62 for the D-Backs last season) and Charlie Morton (9-9, 4.81 for the Pirates).  There are also indications some youthful help might be on the way.  Available from the start of the season will be 22-year-old Aaron Nola (6-2, 3.59 in 13 starts after a July debut; 10-4, 2.39 at Double A/Triple A) and 25-year-old Jerad Eickhoff (3-3, 2.65 after an August call up; 12-5, 3.85 at Double A/Triple A). Southpaw Adam Morgan (5-7, 4.48 could grab the fifth spot), with competition from Brent Oberholtzer and Vincent Velasquez (who both came over, in a trade, from the Astros).  With Ken Giles gone, there is no proven closer on board, so we may say plenty of auditions for ninth-inning role, with speculation focusing on David Hernandez (4.28 in 40 games with Arizona), Luis Garcia (3.51 in 72 appearances) and Jeanmar  Gomez (3.01 in 65 games). Once a closer is selected the rest of the bullpen roles should fall into place.

The Phillies are working to stock the prospect pipeline and, as they rebuild, fourth place seems the most realistic outcome.

 Atlanta Braves – Fifth Place

Like the Phillies, the Braves’ are in a rebuilding mode.  This off season, they traded shortstop wizard Andrelton Simmons, OF Cameron Maybin and starting pitcher Shelby Miller. Already gone were such names as Jason Heyward, Justin Upton, Craig Kimbrel and Evan Gattis.  Where is Atlanta going?  To a new stadium in 2017 – and to a new, youthful line-up (hopefully, by that same year). In the meantime, wins may be scarce, as the returns from recent trade activity mature in the minors.

The offense – which last year finished dead last in MLB in runs, home runs, RBI, and total bases may be improved a bit. At the top of the order, you’ll find 25-year-old CF Ender Inciarte, picked up in the Shelby Miller trade. Inciarte looks like a good long-term investment. He hit .303, with 6 home runs, 45 RBI and 21 steals in 2015.   The primary power source remains 1B Freddie Freeman (.276-18-66 in an injury-dampened season – 118 games).  Freeman’s “protection” in the lineup comes in the form of a pair of players who were 30-year-old rookies last season. First, there is 3B Adonis Garcia (.277-10-26 in 58 games). Adonis, a switch-hitter, made his MLB debut last season and despite only 191 at bats was second on the Braves in home runs). You just have to root for a guy who hangs around to be a 30-year-old rookie – and who is named Adonis.  Then there is September call-up Hector Olivera – who played for six minor league teams (Rookie League, A, AA, AAA) before his late-season MLB debut with the Braves.  For Atlanta, Oliveras – who showed solid power in Cuba – hit .253 with two home runs and 11 RBI in 24 games. It appears the Braves may be intent on converting the former infielder to a corner OF spot.  The other OF position will likely go to veteran returnee Nick Markakis, who hit .296-3-53 a year ago. Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn provide depth. Other likely starters include Erik Aybar (.270-3-44, with 15 steals for the Angels) at SS, Jace Peterson (.239-6-52) at 2B and the steady A.J.  Pierzynski (.300-9-49) behind the plate. It would not be surprising, however, to see some new faces emerge if any of these falter.

The starting rotation is in better shape than the offense.  It will be led by Julio Teheran (11-8, 4.04 last season and a 14-game winner, with a 2.89 ERA, in 2014). Twenty-three-year old Matt Wisler may slot in at number-two after going 8-8, 4.71 in 19 starts.  Newcomer Bud Norris had a tough 2015 (3-11, 6.72 with the Orioles and Padres), but is just one season removed from a 15-win campaign. Others in the mix are Williams Perez (7-6, 4.78), southpaw Manny Banuelos (1-4, 5.13; 6-2, 2.23 at Triple A) and Mike Foltynewicz (4-6, 5.71).  The bullpen will be led by expected closer Arodys Vizcaino (3-1, 1.60 with nine saves in 10 opportunities) and a potential cast of many.

All in all, it looks like a long season for Braves fans. I’d suggest following the progress of such players prospects as SS Dansby Swanson, LHP Sean Newcomb and RHP Aaron Blair.

NL CENTRAL

Chicago Cubs – First Place

It’s been a long time since Cubs’ fans have had it this good. Coming off a 97-win season – fueled a young and powerful line-up, Cy Young Award winner Jake Arrieta and a solid bullpen led by closer Hector Rondon (along with Justin Grimm, Pedro Strop and Travis Wood) – the Cubs didn’t sit on their laurels.  In the off season, they improved their lineup and their pitching, while also adding depth and versatility.

Consider the lineup.  In the middle, the Cubbies return 2015 Rookie of the Year, 24-year-old Kris Bryant (.275-26-99, 13 steals) at third base; proven power source, 25-year-old Anthony Rizzo  (.278-31-101; 86 HR’s in the past three seasons) at 1B; and 23-year-old Kyle Schwarber (.246-16-43 after a mid-June call up) in LF.  Setting the table from the one and two spots are a pair of free-agent signees – CF Jason Heyward (Gold Glove defense and .293, with 16 HRs and 23 steals, for the Cardinals a year ago – and a chance to improve in hitter-friendly Wrigley) and Ben Zobrist (.276, with 13 HRs, for Oakland and KC last season) at 2B.  Rounding out the line-up should be returnees Miguel Montero at C, Jorge Soler in RF and Addison Russell at SS. Overall, the Cubs’ lineup could be one of the top two or three in the NL.  And there’s plenty of depth.  Schwarber can catch and play outfield; Zobrist can play 2B, 3B and OF; and the bench has plenty of quality with the likes of Javier Baez (2B-SS), Chris Coghlin (OF) and Tony La Stella (2B-3B). Manager Joe Maddon clearly has plenty of room and resources to maneuver.

On the mound, Cy Young winner Jake Arrieta (22-6, 1.77) will again lead the way. The number-two spot appears in good hands with southpaw Jon Lester (11-12, 3.34 – only one season removed from a 16-11, 2.46 campaign). The Cubs raided the division-rival Cardinals for their number-three starter, free-agent signee John Lackey (13-10. 2.77 for the Redbirds).  The end of the rotation – 10-game winner Jason Hammel and eight-game winner Kyle Hendriks should hold its own.  If any of these should falter, Adam Warren (acquired from the Yankees for Starlin Castro) is ready to step in. If not, Warren joins a strong bullpen (fourth-lowest NL bullpen ERA last season), headed by closer Hector Rondon (6-4, 1.67 with 30 saves). 

Saint Louis Cardinals – Second Place (Wild Card)

The Cardinals were the only MLB team to win 100 games a year ago – and still ended the season with the Cubs and Pirates both within three games.  Then they saw the 97-victory Cubs sign away Cardinals’ free-agents Jason Heyward and John Lackey and also lost number-two starter Lance Lynn to Tommy John surgery.   Still, Saint Louis has a capable lineup, a solid rotation and a “plus” bullpen.  They will be in the hunt.  BBRT just doesn’t think they have enough to hold off the Cubs.

The power for the Cardinals starts at the top, with veteran lead-off hitter and 3B Matt Carpenter, who hit .272-28-84 last season (while also scoring 101 runs).  While it’s Carpenter’s first season of more than 11 round trippers, he also led the NL with 44 doubles, so 20 home runs seems sustainable.  The number-two spot will likely go to RF Steve Piscotty (who was hitting .272 with 11 HRs at Triple A when called up in June). Piscotty delivered a .305-7-39 line in 63 games for the Cardinals. In the middle of the order are CF Randy Grichuk, LF Matt Holliday and SS Jhonny Peralta.  Grichuk showed power potential in the minors (hitting 25 HRs in 108 games at Triple A in 2014). Last season, Grichuk went .276-17-47 in 103 games for Saint Louis. Cleanup hitter Holliday managed only 73 games a year ago (quadriceps) and went .279-4-35. A healthy Holliday should be a dependable (15-20 HR) power source.  Last season was the first time since 2005 that he has failed to reach 20 home runs and the first time since 2004 that he has driven in less than 75.  Peralta (.275-17-71 a year ago) provides a steady glove and bat in the middle of the diamond.  The lineup is rounded out by 2B Kolten Wong (.262-11-61, 15 steals) and the likely platoon of Brandon Moss and Matt Adams at 1B (both have shown decent power in the past).  Catcher may prove a trouble spot, since seven-time All Star and eight-time Gold Glover Yadier Molina had a pair of off-season thumb surgeries. A healthy Molina provides MLB’s best defense behind the plate, a solid bat (.283 career average) and on-field leadership.  It looks like, at least early in the season, backup backstop free-agent signee Bryan Pena (Reds) will see plenty of playing time.  Pena hit .273-0-18 in 108 games last season. While they weren’t especially active in the off season, the Cardinals did pick up free-agent utility player Jedd Gyorko (.247-16-57 for the Padres), who can play anywhere in the infield.

Despite the loss of Lance Lynn (Tommy John surgery) and John Lackey (free agent), the pitching looks solid.  Number-one starter Adam Wainwright (who missed most of 2015 – Achilles tendon) appears healthy. In 2013-14, Wainwright went 39-18, 2.67) – and, remember, the Cardinals won 100 games last season, when Wainwright won just two (2-1, 1.61 in a handful of late-season appearances). Returning to the rotation are lefty Jaime Garcia (10-6, 2.43), Carlos Martinez (14-7, 3.01) and Michael Wacha (17-7, 3.38). Replacing Lance Lynn (12-11, 3.03 last season) is free-agent signee Mike Leake (11-10, 3.70 for the Reds and Giants). The bullpen had a 2.83 ERA last year (contributing to the Cardinals’ MLB-lowest 2.94 overall ERA) and will be strong again. Closer Trevor Rosenthal (2-4, 2.10, with 48 saves in 51 opportunities, will be supported by the likes of southpaw Kevin Siegrist, Seth Maness and Jonathan Broxton.  The Cards may have bolstered the pen with the signing of Korean star Seung Hwan Oh, who had a 1.81 ERA over 11 seasons in Korea and Japan.

It looks to BBRT like the Cardinals will have the pitching to compete and the offense to make the playoffs (as a Wild Card) – they just don’t seem to have the depth or versatility to hold off the Cubs for the Division title.

Pittsburgh Pirates – Third Place

The Pirates won 98 games a year ago – and still finished second to the Cardinals. And while the Pirates will field a strong squad again in 2015 – they’ve made the playoffs in each of the past three seasons – BBRT expects the Bucco’s to fall just short (short by one quality starter and a bit more offense from the infield) of the playoffs this season).

The strength of the Pirates resides in the outfield – manned by Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte (gotta love that name) and the still improving Gregory Polanco.  The key to the Pirates’ success is CF McCutchen – a five-time All Star and 2013 NL MVP.  In an injury-dampened “off” season in 2015, McCutchen provided “plus” defense, a .293 average, 23 HR, 96 RBI and 11 steals. The Pirates expect even more in 2016.  LF Marte  will likely bat fourth (and provide protection for McCutchen).  Last season, Marte went .287-19-81, with 30 steals – this follows a 2014 line of .291-13-56, with 30 steals. Clearly, Marte will continue as an offensive force.  2015 was 24-year-old RF Polanco’s first full MLB season and he wasn’t overmatched (.256-16-85, with 27 steals). Polanco should lead off and likely improve on his 2014 numbers. Around the infield, the potential is not as strong.  First base looks like a platoon between Michael Morse (.231-5-19 in 98 games) and free-agent signee John Jaso (.286-5-22 in 70 games for Tampa Bay). At second base, Josh Harrison replaces the popular Neil Walker (traded to the Mets). Harrison hit .287 in 114 games a year ago (just four home runs, however, as compared to Walker’s 16). Third base could be a power source – depending on how well Jung Ho Kang rebounds from a leg injury suffered late last season.  At the time, the 28-year-old rookie (Korean All Star) was hitting .287, with 15 home runs. Returning at the final two sports are SS Jody Mercer (.244-3-34) and catcher Francisco Cervelli (.295-7-43).  The Pirates do have some depth, backup outfield Sean Rodriguez (.246-4-17) can also play 2B and 3B, Jaso can handle a corner outfield spot and Harrison could slide over to 3B.

The pitching staff is led by Gerrit Cole (19-8, 2.60) and southpaw Francisco Liriano (12-7, 3.38), but has some question marks at the back end of the rotation. Left-hander Jeff Locke (8-11, 4.49) returns, but Pittsburgh lost J.A. Happ (free agency), who went 7-2, 1.61 for the Pirates after being acquired last July.  The Pirates worked to fill in their rotation gaps with the Walker trade (for lefty Jon Neise, 9-10. 4.13, with the Mets) and the signing of free-agent Ryan Vogelsong (9-11, 4.67 with the Giants). While there are question marks in the rotation, the bullpen – which boasted the NL’s lowest ERA (2.67) last season – should again be a strength.   Mark Melancon (3-2, 2.23, with 51 saves) will close . He’ll be supported by the likes of left-hander Tony Watson (1.91 ERA in 77 games) and Jared Hughes (2.28 in 76 games).

The Pirates should put a winning record on the board again this season, but they play in a tough division and third place looks like an appropriate expectation. 

Milwaukee Brewers – Fourth Place

2015 was a tough season for Brewer fans – and 2015 doesn’t look to be much better.  The Brewers are rebuilding and the future is probably more than a season or two away. Among the bright spots for the Brewers are RF Ryan Braun’s .285-25-84 production (with 24 stolen bases), C Jonathan  Lucroy’s improved health, underrated LF Khris Davis’ power (.247-27-66 in 121 games) and Zach Davies’ performance after his September call-up (3-2, 3.61 in six starts). But there is another side to the coin even for those highlights.  Braun had back surgery after the season (although it appears he will be ready for Opening Day) and Lucroy has indicated a desire to move on to a contender.  So, what can fans expect from the Brew Crew – besides a fourth-place finish?

The middle of the lineup should include Braun, plus Davis and free-agent signee 1B Chris Carter (.199-24-64). Setting the table for this group are likely to be returning 2B Scooter Gennett (.264-6-29) at the lead-off spot and, perhaps, Lucroy at number-two. CF Domingo Santana showed a bit of pop last season –  .238-8-26 in 50 games.  The bottom of the order is likely to include returning SS Jean Segura (.257-6-50, 25 SB) and new 3B Jonathan Villar (.284-2-22, 7 steals in 53 games for the Astros).  Brewers’ fans may see SS prospect Orlando Arcia sometime during the season – Arcia went .307-8-69, with 25 SB, at AA in 2015.

On the mound, there may be some promise.  An all right-handed rotation should include Davies (who could build off that successful late season call up), as well as Taylor Jungmann, who made his MLB debut last June and went 9-8, 3.77.  Also in the mix are Wily Peralta (5-10, 4.72), Jimmy Nelson (11-13, 4.11) and veteran Matt Garza (6-15, 5.62).  In the wings are Jorge Lopez (who went 12-5, 2.26 at AA last season, but gave up 14 hits and five walks in ten September innings for the Brewers) and Ariel Pena (2-1, 4.28 in a late-season call up).  The bullpen, which will likely get plenty of work, has some capable arms in southpaw Will Smith (2.70 ERA in 76 appearances), Jeremy Jeffress (2.65 in 72 games), Michael Blazek (2.43 in 45 games) and Corey Knebel (3.22 in 48 games).  A closer needs to emerge (the Brewers traded closer Francisco Rodriguez to the Tigers), and the most likely candidates appear to be Smith and Jeffress.

Cincinnati Reds – Fifth Place

The Reds, like the Brewers, are rebuilding, which is why fans at the Great American Ballpark won’t be seeing Aroldis Chapman’s power arm or Todd Frazier’s powerful bat (both traded away) this coming season. It’s also why the Reds are likely to find themselves fighting with the Brewers for fourth place in the NL Central.

Still, there will be some highlights.  Expect another strong season from 1B Joey Votto – a four-time All Star and 2010 MVP.  Last season, Votto put up his standard .314-29-80 stat line, and added 11 stolen bases.  This is all without much protection in the line-up, as evidenced by Votto’s NL-leading 143 walks.  Votto, in fact, has led the NL in walks in four of the past five seasons.  With Frazier’s 30-HR power gone, Votto may draw even more free passes.  The middle of the Reds’ lineup is also likely to include RF Jay Bruce (.226-26-87) and C Devin Morasco, who came into his own in 2014, hitting .273, with 25 home runs and 80 RBI, but missed nearly all of last season with a sore hip that eventually required surgery.  There is a veteran presence at the top of the line-up in lead-off hitter SS Zack Cozart, coming back from a torn tendon and ligaments (.258-9-28 in 53 games) and 2B Brandon Phillips (.294-12-70). Phillips could also slot into the lead-off role.  CF belongs to Billy Hamilton , who brings defense and speed (57 steals), but hit only .226 (.274 on base percentage) a year ago. Eugenio Suarez is likely to hold down Frazier’s 3B spot. Suarez hit .280, with 13 home runs, in 97 games a year ago.  We could see competition for the final outfield spot in Spring Training among Adam Duvall, Scott Schebler and Jesse Winkler. Also in the mix for an infield or utility spot is prospect Jose Peraza.  Peraza and Schebler both came over in Frazier trade – and both have considerable upside.

If resources look at little thin at the plate, the rotation may be thinner – particularly when you weigh experience.  The Reds, in fact, went with an all-rookie rotation over the last couple month of the 2015 season. (Experienced starters Johnny Cueto and Mike Leake were traded mid-season, while Homer Bailey succumbed to Tommy John surgery.) Bailey isn’t expected to be ready on Opening Day, so the starting staff is likely to be Anthony DeSclafani (9-13, 4.05); Raisell Iglesias (3-7, 4.15); lefty John Lamb (1-5, 5.80); Jon Moscot (1-1, 4.63); southpaw Brandon Finnegan (5-2, 3.56).  These five have a total of 69 career MLB starts among them. Look for a tough learning curve, particularly in the hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark.  With the Chapman trade, bullpen roles will need to be adjusted.  The new closer may be J.J. Hoover (8-2, 2.94 in 67 games), although BBRT is rooting for 6’4”, 280-pound Jumbo Diaz (2-1, 4.18 in 61 games, but with 70 strikeouts in 60 1/3 innings). Also likely in the pen are Carlos Contreras (0-0, 4.82 in 22 appearances), lefty Tony Cingrani (0-3, 5.67 in 35 games) and Mike Lorenzen (4-9, 5.40 in 27 games, 21 starts).

Ultimately, it’s too early in the rebuilding process to expect much – and (given the state of the pitching staff) the Reds seem likely to lose the fourth-place battle to the Brewers.

NL WEST

San Francisco Giants – First Place

Tough call – should be a close race among the Giants, Dodgers and Diamondbacks. The Giants, however, were World Series Champs in 2010, 2012 and 2014 – and who am I to anger the baseball Gods or defy even-year irony. Actually, I like the Giants to take the Division based on: 1) their free-agent signings (Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija); 2) a balanced and largely underrated lineup; 3) the Dodgers’ loss of 2014 Cy Young winner Zack Grienke; and 4) the Diamondback’s lack of offensive depth.

Let’s start with the pitching staff. The Giants lost three members of their starting rotation – Tim Lincecum and Ryan Vogelsong to free agency and Tim Hudson to retirement. Those three went 24-24, and pitched a combined 335 innings to a 4.46 ERA. In response, the Giants signed free agents Johnny Cueto (Royals) and Jeff Samardzija (White Sox) – who last season went a combined 22-26, with an ERA of 4.20 in 426 innings.  (Cueto also is just one season removed from his 2014 twenty-win campaign.)  Both pitchers should benefit from a more pitcher-friendly park and a better lineup (Cueto started with the Reds last season). Notably, neither  Cueto nor Samardzija will be expected to lead the staff.  The number-one rotation spot goes to lefty Madison Bumgarner, a true “ace” who went 18-9, 2.93 with 234 strikeouts in 218 1/3 innings (numbers almost identical to his 2014 stats of 18-10, 2.98). Cueto will be slotted in at number-two.  And, there is plenty of talent to choose from for the three-through-five slots, including: Samardzija; Jake Peavy, who went 8-6, 3.58 in 19; Chris Heston (12-11, 3.95); and Matt Cain, injury plagued the past couple of seasons, but a three-time All Star.  The bullpen should also be a strength, thanks to manager Bruce Bochy’s acknowledged ability to put relievers in situations where they can succeed. Santiago Casilla (4-2, 2.79 with 38 saves) will lead the pen, with support from the likes of Sergio Romo (2.98 in 70 appearances), Javier Lopez (1.60 in 77 games), George Kontos (2.33 in 73 games) and Hunter Strickland (2.45 in 55 games).

You’ll find bigger names in some NL line-ups, but the Giants have plenty of players who will give you quality at bats.  2012 MVP (catcher) Buster Posey is at the heart of the attack and is coming off a typical Posey season (.318-19-95). Joining Posey in the middle of the line are a couple of underrated hitters (at least in BBRT’s opinion), 1B Brandon Belt (.280-18-68, with nine steals) and RF Hunter Pence (.275-9-40 in 52 games – fractured forearm and wrist tendonitis). Pence will be joined in the outfield by a combination drawn from Denard Span (.301-5-22 , with 11 steals in 61 games for the Nationals), Angel Pagan (.262-3-37, 12 steals) and George Blanco (.291-5-26, 13 steals). In the infield, Belt’s steady power is complemented by 2B Joe Panik (.312, with eight home runs), SS Brandon Crawford (.256-21-84) and 3B Matt Duffy, who – in his first full MLB season – hit .295, with 12 home runs, 77 RBI and 12 steals in 12 attempts.

A solid, well-balanced line up, quality rotation and well-managed bullpen should bring the Giants home in first place.

Dodgers – Second Place

Ouch! You lose half of perhaps MLB’s best one-two pitching punch – and to a division rival. For a team that has always been known for its pitching, that can make for a long season. Still the Dodgers do have arguably the best pitcher in baseball in Clayton Kershaw, and they managed to sign Scott Kazmir to help fill the Greinke hole. They also have a solid closer in Kenley Jansen, a Rookie of the Year favorite in SS Corey Seager and a consistent run producer in 1B Adrian Gonzalez.  BBRT see that as enough to hold off the surging Diamondbacks, but not enough to take down the Giants.

Let’s start with the rotation – right at the top is every pre-season’s Cy Young favorite, lefty Clayton Kershaw. Last season, in what some might call a “down” year, Kershaw went 16-7, 2.13 – with 301 strikeouts in 232 2/3 innings. Sorry, MLB batsmen, but Kershaw will be back for his 30+ starts.  In the number-two slot is free-agent signee lefty Scott Kazmir (7-11, but with a solid 3.10 ERA for the A’s and Astros last season). The remainder of the rotation looks to come from among southpaw Brett Anderson (10-9, 3.69), lefty Alex Wood (12-12, 3.84 with the Braves and Dodgers), recently signed  Kenta Maeda (97-67, 2.39 in eight seasons in Japan) and lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu (who missed last season due to shoulder surgery, but went 14-7,3.38 for the Dodgers in 2014). In short, even without Grienke, this is a quality rotation.  Behind closer Kenley Jansen (2-1, 2.41, with 30 saves and 80 strikeouts in 52 1/3 innings) and J.P. Howell (6-1, 1.43 in 65 games) in the pen are Chris Hatcher (3.69 ERA in 49 games), Luis Avilan (4.05 in 73 games), Pedro Baez (3.35 in 52 games), and Carlos Frias (4.06 in 17 games/13 starts).

Moving to the line-up, 1B Adrian Gonzalez is the big bat (.275-28-90) in the middle of an order that produced the most home runs in the NL last season (187) – but also only the eighth-highest runs total.  Still, the Dodger outscored the opposition  667-595. With Greinke gone, however, they may need a little more production. That may come from a group of youngsters including: 21-year-old SS Corey Seager, who hit .337-4-17 in 27 games after a late season call-up and is the early Rookie of the Year Favorite; 23-year-old CF Joc Pederson, who hit 26 home runs a year ago, but needs to cut down on his strikeouts (he hit just .210 and whiffed 170 times in 151 games); and 25-year-old Yasiel Puig (.255-11-38, recurring hamstring issue), who has a .294 average with 46 home runs in 331 major league games.  Joining Puig and Pederson in the OF mix are 34-year-old Carl Crawford (.265-4-16 in 69 games) and 33-year-old Andre Either (.294-14-53). Filling out the order are 31-year-old 3B Justin Turner (.294-16-60, coming off knee surgery), 2B 37-year-old Chase Utley  (.212-8-39) and C Yasmil Grandal (.234-16-47).

Diamondbacks – Third Place

Okay, the D-backs have some ground to make up – 13 games behind the Dodgers and five behind the Giants in 2015.  They got a good start on closing those gaps when they signed free-agent starter Zack Greinke (19-3, 1.66 for the Division-rival Dodgers last season). They also added Shelby Miller in a trade with the Braves.  Miller was 6-17 with the Braves, who lost 95 games a year ago, but his 3.02 ERA and 205 innings pitched say more about his ability. (In 2013-14, he went 25-18 for the Cardinals with a 3.41 ERA.) With these two, the rotation is off to a good start. Couple that with an offense centered around MVP candidate Paul Goldschmidt (.321-33-110, with 21 stolen bases) – and things should be interesting in Arizona.

What might surprise you most about the D-Backs is the-line up.  A.J. Pollock is likely to lead off – bringing power and speed (.315-20-76, with 39 steals). The D-Backs get a similar combination from LF David Peralta (.312-17-78, with nine steals). The D-Backs also expect good things from Yasmany Tomas.  Last year, his rookie season, Tomas hit .273, with nine homers, 48 RBI and five steals in 118 games – shuttling primarily between RF and 3B. This season right field should be his.  Third base likely goes to Jake Lamb (.263 with six homers in 107 games);  2B to Chris Owings (.227 with four homers in 147 games; and SS to Nick Ahmed (.226, with nine home runs in 134 games). Arizona could use a bit more offense out of that trio. Catcher Wellington Castillo appears to have found a home in Arizona, his third team last season.  In 80 games for the D-Backs, Castillo hit .255 with 17 long balls.

On the mound, Greinke and Miller will lead the rotation.  They will likely be followed by Rubby De La Rosa (14-9, 4.67) and Patrick Corbin (who had Tommy John surgery and missed the 2014 season before going 6-5, 3.60 in sixteen 2015 starts). Corbin was 14-8, 3.41 in 2013. Top candidates for the final rotation spot include lefty Robbie Ray (5-12, 3.52) and right-hander Chase Anderson (6-6. 4.30).

The bullpen will be led by 36-year-old Brad Zeigler (1.85 ERA, with 30 saves).  Zeigler is not your typical closer – notching only 36 strikeouts in 68 innings – but he has a 2.47 ERA over eight MLB seasons. Setting up Ziegler will be: Daniel Hudson (3.86 in 54 games); John Collmenter (3.79 in 44 games); Matt Reynolds (4.61 in 18 games); and Randall Delgado (3.25 in 64 games).

Overall, the Diamondbacks are putting a quality team on the field.  However, they may be a little short on depth and have little margin for error or injury.  Still, I wouldn’t bet against them to make the post-season.

San Diego Padres – Fourth Place

Going into the 2016 season, Padres’ fans need patience and a prospect list, as the team has intensified its focus on building from ground (youth) up. For example, in a two-day span in November, the Padres shipped quality reliever Joaquin Benoit to Seattle for prospects RHP Enyel De Los Santsos and IF Nelson Ward, and then moved elite closer Craig Kimbrel to the Red Sox for OF Manuel Margot, SS Javier Guerra, 2B/3B Carlos Asuaje and LHP Logan Allen. Five of those six are now ranked among the Padres’ farm systems’ top-20: Margot (1); Guerra (3); De Los Santos (15); Allen (19); and Asuaje (20).  2018 looks like a very good year in San Diego.  2016, not as good.

The heart of the 2015 lineup should be comprised of RF Matt Kemp (.265-23-100, 12 steals), 3B Yangveris Solarte (.270-14-63) and catcher Derek Norris (.250-14-62).  The rest of the line-up is a less settled. At the top, we will most likely see a pair of hitters recovering from wrist issues: 1B Wil Myers (.253-8-29, with five steals in 60 games) and LF Jon Jay (.210-1-19 in 79 games for the Cardinals).  Myers, the 2013 AL Rookie of the Year, has played in only 147 games over the past two seasons. If healthy, he does have the potential for double-digit home runs and a respectable average. Jay, who will be 30 when the season opens may have the most immediate upside of the pair.  In six MLB seasons, he has a .287 average and is known as a solid defender.  Candidates for the lower end of the lineup include: 2B Cory Spangenberg (.271-4-21, nine steals), free-agent signee SS Alexei Ramirez (.249-10-62 for the White Sox) and CF Melvin Upton (.259-9-17).  There is also a good chance that Padre’s number-two prospect, OF Hunter Renfroe, could make his major league debut in 2016. Renfroe hit .272, with 20 home runs and 78 RBI at Double A and Triple A in 2015.

On the mound, the starting rotation seems less more settled than the lineup.  The number-one spot goes to proven veteran James Shields (13-7, 3.91, with 216 strikeouts in 202 1/3 innings for the Padres last year), with nine consecutive seasons of double-digit wins under his belt. Tyson Ross put up decent numbers (10-12, 3.26) and will hold down the number-two slot – a pitch-to-contact hurler, he could use a little better defense behind him (not to mention more offensive support). The number-three spot goes to Andrew Cashner (6-16, 4.34). Competing for the final two spots are: lefty Robbie Erlin (1-2, 4.76; after 7-6, 5.60 at Triple A); Colin Rea (2-2, 4.26; 5-4, 1.95 at Double A and Triple A); and Drew Pomeranz (5-9, 3.99, primarily out of the bullpen).  There is no established closer or setup man – the Padres traded away their closer (Kimbrel) and a key setup man (Benoit) –  but auditioning candidates could include: Pomeranz; Brandon Mauer (3.00 in 53 games); Kevin Quakenbush (4.01 in 57 games); and Jon Edwards (4.32 in 22 games for Texas and San Diego). I’m rooting for Quackenbush – I like the name.

 

Colorado Rockies – Fifth Place

You’re not going to win many games with a 5.04 team ERA  (worst in MLB) – not even when you score the fifth most runs.  The fact is, the Rockies haven’t had a winning season since 2010, and they are not likely to break the streak in 2016.

Not that they don’t have some talent, particularly on offense.  But to really evaluate where the Rockies stand, you have to consider the impact of Coors Field.  Last season, for example, the Rockies hit .302 with 102 HR and 449 runs scored at home. Away from what is truly the “friendly confines” (my apologies Cubs’ fans), the Rockies hit .228, with 84 home runs and 288 runs scored. With that in mind, let’s look at the Rockies lineup.  Right at its heart – and sure to stay there for a while – is the talented, 24-year-old 3B Nolan Arenado, who not only turned in a .287-42-130 season, but picked up his third Gold Glove.  This is a pretty good player to build on.  Note: While Arenado hit .316 to .258 home and away, he actually hit more home runs on the road (22) than at home (20). If Arenado looks to his left, past shortstop Jose Reyes (.274-7-53, with 24 steals), he will see another of the Rockies’ building blocks – 2B DJ Le Mahieu (.301-6-61, with 23 steals and a Gold Glove of his own). Then there is the OF: CF Charlie Blackmon (.287-17-58, with 43 steals leading off); LF Carlos Gonzalez in the three-spot, contributing a .271 average, 40 home runs and 97 RBI; and Corey Dickerson (.304-10-31 in 65 games) in LF , batting fifth.  Note:  This trio hit .325 at home and .243 on the road.  The power numbers were closer – 36 round trippers at Coors, 31 on the road.    1B may end up a platoon involving the right-handed hitting Mark Reynolds (.230-13-48 for St. Louis) and left-handed batter Ben Paulsen (.277-11-48). Catching belongs to Nick Hundley (.301-10-43).

Now to the mound.  You’ve seen the hitters’ splits, would you want to pitch in Coors? Last season, the mound staff ran up a 5.69 ERA at home and 4.37 on the road.  The telling point?  Even had the Rockies matched their 4.37 road ERA at home, they would have had the third-worst overall ERA in the NL.  Clearly, the Rockies have to develop – or acquire – some pitching that can handle the rigors of Coors.  And, given Coors’ reputation that might not be easy.  For 2016, the rotation starts with Jorge De La Rosa (9-7, 4.17) – who clearly is not intimidated by Coors Field (in eight season with Colorado, his ERA is 4.17 at Coors and 4.22 on the road.)  Chad Bettis showed promise last season, going 8-6, 4.23 in 20 starts. From there, the Rockies can choose from among Jordan Lyles (2-5, 5.14); fastballer Jon Gray (0-2, 5.53 last season; after going 6-6, 4.33 at Triple A); Tyler Chatwood (returning from Tommy John surgery, who went 8-5, 3.15 for the Rockies in 2013); and southpaw Chris Rusin (6-10, 5.33).   Looking to the bullpen, ideally, the Rockies would like Adam Ottavino to complete his comeback from Tommy John surgery and take charge of the closer’s role. In 2014, pre-surgey, he put up a 3.60 ERA in 75 games, striking out 70 batters in 65 innings. He got in ten games late last season, striking out ten in 10 1/3 innings, giving up just three hits, two walks and no runs. The Rockies brought in a couple of free agents to bolster the bullpen competition: Jason Motte (3.91 in 57 games with the Cubs) and Chad Qualls (4.38 in 60 games with the Astros). A few others in the mix could be Christian Freidich, Christian Bergman, and lefty Boone Logan.

Ultimately, Colorado will again put up considerable offense – but it won’t be enough to reach the .500 mark.

So there’s BBRT’s pre-season NL predictions.  Hope you enjoyed them – kinda hope a few of you made it this far.

I tweet baseball @DavidBBRT

Member: Society for American Baseball Research; The Baseball Reliquary; Baseball Bloggers Alliance.

In BBRT’s post of November 24, I reviewed the traditional Baseball Hall of Fame ballot, which will see the qualifying members of the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA) voting on HOF induction for 32 players (17 ballot holdovers and 15 first-timers). That post also included BBRT’s preferences and predictions for 2016 HOF induction. To view that post, click here.

In this post, we’ll take a look at the special Pre-Integration Hall of Fame ballot.  The 10 Pre-Integration Era nominees included on the ballot were selected by the BBWAA-appointed Historical Overview Committee. The candidates are drawn from managers, umpires, executives and players who had a significant impact on baseball from its earliest days through 1946. Eligible candidates included: players who played in at least 10 major league seasons, have been retired for at least 21 years and are not on MLB’s ineligible list; and managers, umpires and executives with 10 or more years in baseball. The final nominees included six former players, three executives and one of the game’s earliest organizers. A 16-member Committee will vote on the nominees on December 7, and any nominee receiving at least 75 percent support will be inducted into the HOF during this coming year’s (July 24, 2016) ceremonies. (Voting results  will be announced on January 6, 2016).

As with BBRT’s review of the regular Hall of Fame ballot, I’ll share my predictions and preferences.  We’ll start with predictions on whom the Committee will elect, move on to a detailed look at the players BBRT would vote for and close with a briefer review of the remainder of the ballot.

Who Will the Committee Send to Cooperstown?

BBRT projects the Pre-Integration Committee will provide the necessary 12 votes to:

• Harry Stovey …  A stellar offensive performer, who – at various times – led his league in home runs, doubles, triples, runs scored, runs  batted in, slugging percentage, total bases and stolen bases.
• Doc Adams … For his work in defining, refining and standardizing baseball rules, as well as the development of (and his play at) the shortstop position.

BBRT also sees a pair of dark horse candidates, who could join the above pair for 2016 induction:

• Chris Van der Ahe … An early baseball “maverick” credited with bringing us – among other things – Sunday baseball and beer at the ballpark.
• Bucky Walters – With six All Star selections, three years leading his league in wins and a 1939 MVP Award – plus, he was he was a two-time ERA champion, three-time leader in complete games, one-time leader in shutouts, three-time leader in innings pitched and one-time leader in strikeouts.   

 

Now, let’s take a look at the nominees that BBRT would support, in order of preference:

 

1. HARRY STOVEY – Power and Speed in MLB’s Early Days

Had they selected All Star teams in the 1880s and 1890s, Harry Stovey would have been on plenty of them.  Stovey’s 14-year career included stints in the National League (1880-82 and 1891-93) – as well as the American Association (1883-1889) and Players League (1890), considered major leagues at the time. The fleet outfielder-first baseman was a true offensive threat, leading his league in home runs five times, triples four times, runs scored four times, slugging percentage three times, total bases three times, stolen bases two times and doubles and RBI once each. Stovey was the first player to reach 100 career home runs and when he retired in 1893, he held the career home run record at 122. He remained among the top five in career round trippers until 1924. In 1889, playing for the Philadelphia Athletics  of the American Association, Stovey hit .308 – and led the league in runs scored (152), home runs (19), RBI (119), slugging percentage (.525) and total bases (292), tossing  in 63 steals. Stovey is also credited as the first player to wear sliding pads and the first to perfect the feet-first slide.  Stovey finished his career with a .289 average, 122 home runs, 906 RBI, 1,492 runs scored, 174 triples and 509 stolen bases.  He played for the Worcester Ruby Legs, Philadelphia Athletics, Boston Reds, Boston Beaneaters, Baltimore Orioles and Brooklyn Grooms.

All those finishes atop key offensive categories make Stovey a worthy Hall of Famer.

2. DANIEL “DOC” ADAMS – We Still Play by His Rules

“Doc” Adams came by his nickname fairly – he graduated from Yale University in 1835 and acquired a medical degree from Harvard in 1938 (eventually practicing medicine in Mount Vernon, Boston and New York City).  In addition to his medical and educational pursuits, Adams was an exceptional athlete with a strong interest in baseball.  In 1840, he joined the New York Baseball Club and, five years later, became one of the earliest members of the influential New York Knickerbocker Base Ball Club – joining in 1845 and being elected its president in 1846. In 1856, he headed a convention of representatives of a dozen baseball teams focused on defining, refining and standardizing the rules of the game.  Among the “firsts” attributed to Adams – the first to play (and establish) the shortstop position and the first umpire to call non-swinging strikes.  He is also considered one of the earliest advocates of (and driving forces behind) a game of nine innings, the 90-foot distance between bases and the establishment of nine players to a side.

For helping shape the game, Adams would get BBRT’s Vote

3. SAM BREADON – Building Saint Louis’ Baseball Tradition

Sam Breadon – a successful businessman who owned a group of Pierce Arrow automobile dealerships – purchased a minority interest in the struggling St. Louis Cardinals in 1917.  By 1920, he was the club’s majority owner and president – a position he held until 1947. Breadon placed Branch Rickey in the position of General Manager and the pair created what turned out to be the model for MLB’s farm system – with minor league clubs feeding players to their parent organizations. That move turned the Saint Louis organization around.  In the five years prior to Breadon taking majority ownership, the team had a record of 346-405 – finishing seventh twice, eighth once, sixth once  and third once. Under Breadon (from 1920 to 1947), the team had only four sub-.500 seasons, produced nine pennant winners and six World Series championships, and put up a .574 overall winning percentage (2,470-1,830).

Helping turn Saint Louis into a long-term baseball hotbed should earn Breadon the Hall of Fame nod.

4. CHRIS VON DER AHE – Nothing Like a Cold Beer and a Sunday Doubleheader

Chris Van der Ahe was the owner of the Saint Louis Browns from 1881-1988 – and brought home the American Association championship in four consecutive years (1985-1988). It was, however, Von der Ahe’s, reputation as an innovator and promoter that earned him a spot on the Pre-Integration ballot. (Imagine an earlier, and perhaps even more “maverick,” version of Hall of Fame owner Bill Veeck.)

In the late 1870s and early 1880s, “base ball” (it was two words back then) was facing significant challenges – impacted by the depression of the 1870s, the influence of gambling interests, elitist (read often stodgy) ownership and a reputation for less than gentlemanly (and sometimes even corrupt) players.  Despite all of this, Van der Ahe – who immigrated to the United States in 1867 and knew very little about baseball, but a lot about beer – saw potential in the sport. Van der Ahe, who had settled in St. Louis (then the nation’s sixth-largest city), started as a grocery clerk, but had acquired ownership in a grocery store, a saloon and boarding house.  At the same time as Van der Ahe’s fortunes were rising, Saint Louis baseball was on the decline.  In 1878, in fact, Saint Louis had lost its National League franchise – and fans’ had to make do with the semi-pro St. Louis Brown Stockings. Van der Ahe saw this situation as an opportunity.  He sank his life savings into the Brown Stockings in the hopes of returning the team to the National League (and making a solid return on his investment) – a move that the leaders of the NL rejected.  Turned away by the National League, Van der Ahe’s Brown Stockings initially played as an independent – offering a new kind of “base ball” – accessible to the average wage earner (admission prices only half of the NL’s 50-cents); played on Sunday (the NL banned Sunday ball); with alcoholic beverages (also banned by the NL) available at the ballpark; and offering a range of promotional activities and entertainment.  The Saint Louis team’s rising popularity and financial success is credited with the 1881 formation of the major league American Association (Saint Louis, Baltimore, Cincinnati, Louisville and Pittsburgh).  This success did lead to Van der Ahe’s achieving his goal of returning Saint Louis to the NL.  Prior to the 1893 season, the American Association merged with the National League, with St. Louis a prize catch for the new league.

Now, I happen to love spending a sunny, Sunday afternoon at the ballpark – cold beer and scorecard in hand.  That is enough for me to give a Hall of Fame thumbs up to Chris Van der Ahe. For more on Van der Ahe and the American Association, read The Summer of Beer and Whiskey, reviewed here.

______________________________________________________

Now, here are the remaining candidates on the Pre-Integration Ballot, in alphabetical order.

BILL DAHLEN

Bill Dahlen was primarily a shortstop during his 21-year National League career (1891-1911). Considered an excellent fielder and an accomplished hitter, Dahlen compiled a .272 batting average (2,461 hits) with 84 home runs, 1,234 RBI, 1,590 runs scored and 548 stolen bases. He scored 100 or more runs six times, stole 30+ bases nine times and exceeded 100 RBI once. Playing for the Cubs in 1894, Dahlen put up a .359 average, with 15 home runs, 108 RBI and 43 steals.

AUGUST “GARRY” HERRMANN

August Hermann was president of the Cincinnati Reds from 1902 to 1927 and chairman of MLB’s ruling body – the National Commission – from 1903 to 1920. His contributions to the game earned him the title “Father of the World Series” – as he played a key role in negotiating the “National Agreement” that brought peace between the bickering National and American Leagues in 1903 – an agreement which led to the establishment of the World Series.

MARTY MARION

Considered one of (if not the) top fielding shortstops of his era and a natural leader on the field, Marty Marion was a seven-time All Star and the 1944 NL MVP (despite hitting just .267 with just six home runs, 50 runs scored, 63 RBI and one stolen base) as he led the Cardinals to the NL pennant and World Series crown. In 13 MLB seasons, Marion hit .263 (1,448 hits) with 36 home runs and 624 RBI.  During his career, he helped lead the Cardinals to four pennants (1942-43-44-46) and three World Championships (1942-44-46).

FRANK MCCORMICK

First baseman Frank McCormick was an eight-time All-Star (in 13 MLB seasons), who earned a reputation for a solid bat and glove. He was named the 1940 NL MVP – after a season in which he led the Reds to a World Series title and led the NL in at bats (618), hits (191) and doubles (44), while hitting .309, with 19 home runs, 127 RBI and 91 runs scored. McCormick led the NL in hits three times, doubles once and RBI once. He hit .299 for his career, with 128 home runs and 954 BI.

BUCKY WALTERS

Bucky Walters started his career as a third baseman (1931-34) before switching to the  mound full-time in 1935 (and becoming a six-time All Star as a pitcher). In his 16 seasons on the hill, Walters won 198 games (160 losses) and put up a 3.30 ERA with 1,107 strikeouts in 3,104 innings. He won 20+ games in three seasons (1939, 1940, 1944), leading the league in victories each time.  He won the 1939 NL MVP Award, posting a 27-11 record, with a 2.29 ERA. That season, he led the NL in wins, ERA, strikeouts (137), games started (36), complete games (31) and innings pitched (319).  In his career, he was a three-time league leader in wins, two-time ERA champion, three-time leader in complete games, one-time leader in shutouts, three-time leader in innings pitched and one-time leader in strikeouts.  He was 2-2, with a 2.79 ERA for the Reds in four World Series appearances (1939-40), which included three complete games and one shutout. Walters played for the Phillies, Reds and Braves.

WES FERRELL

Wes Ferrell took the mound in 15 MLB seasons (1927-41) – for the Indians, Red Sox, Senators, Yankees, Dodgers and Braves.  He put up a 193-128 record, with a 4.04 career ERA and 985 strikeouts in 2,623 innings.  He was a six-time 20-game winner, with a league-leading high of 25 for the Red Sox in 1935. Ferrell also lead his league in complete games four times and innings pitched three times.  Ferrell is acknowledged as the best-hitting pitcher of all time, with a .280 career average and 38 home runs (the record for pitchers). He also holds the single season home run record for pitchers at nine.

I tweet baseball @DavidBBRT

Member: Society for American Baseball Research (SABR); The Baseball Reliquary; Baseball Bloggers Alliance.