BBRT has posted its AL predictions (see post of February 28), now let’s shift to the Senior Circuit, where all three division races appear to offer some great competition. The East could go to the Nationals or Braves, the Dodgers seem ready to challenge the Giants in the West and the Cardinals may push the Reds in the Central. Here is BBRT’s take on the NL.
MVP
Matt Kemp puts it all together to lead the Dodgers to the playoffs. Kemp puts up a .300-30-100 season, and swaps 30 bags. His main competition comes from Joey Votto of the Reds and a surprising season from the Braves’ Justin Upton.
Cy Young
The Dodgers’ Clayton Kershaw edges out the Nationals’ Stephen Strasburg and the Reds’ Johnny Cueto in a tight vote.
Rookie of the Year
The Cardinals’ Shelby Miller wins 15 games to take the award from Travis d’Arnoud of the Mets, with the Diamondbacks Tyler Skaggs finishing a surpisring strong third.
Now for the division races:
NL EAST – Nationals
The Nationals had the best record in baseball last year, and they appear to have gotten stronger. With the Nats, it all starts with pitching. A full year of Stephen Strasburg (no shut down in 2013) should enable the D.C. star to top his 15-6, 3.16 season. Then there’s 21-game winner (2.89) Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmerman (12-8, 2.94), Ross Detwiler (10-8, 3.40) and newcomer Dan Haren, who had an injury-marred 2012 season with the Angels (12-14, 4.33), but who has a 3.66 career ERA (10 seasons). The Nationals’ rotation had the lowest ERA in the NL a year ago, and they are likely to retain that crown.
The starting rotation is backed by a strong bullpen, led by closer Drew Storen (back after saving 43 games in 2011, but missing much of 2012). Tyler Clippard, who saved 32 games (3.72 ERA) in Storen’s absence, returns as a top setup man and insurance at closer. Other key bullpen assets include Ryan Mattheus (5-3, 2.85 in 66 appearances) and Craig Stammen (6-1, 2.34 in 59 games). Zack Duke, who looked strong in a late season call-up will handle long relief.
While it starts with pitching in the nation’s Capitol, it’s not all about pitching. Phenom Bryce Harper (.270-22-59, with 98 runs and 18 steals) can be expected to build on his rookie season. First baseman Michael Morse is coming off a .291-18-62 season – in just 102 games – and outfielder Jayson Werth is recovered from a broken wrist that limited him to .300-5-31 in 81 games. Full seasons from Morse and Werth should help ease the loss of Adam LaRoche (271-33-100 last year). Also providing offense are second baseman Ian Desmond (.292-25-73), third baseman Ryan Zimmerman (.282-25-95) and newcomer to the outfield Denard Span (.283, with 71 runs and 17 stolen bases for the Twins).
All in all, the Nationals are more than ready to defend their AL East Crown, they will be chased by (in order) the:
Braves … The Atlanta squad has a chance to upset the Nationals, using a combination of power and – like the Nationals – youth. The offense starts in the outfield, with 23-year-old Jayson Heyward (.269-27-82, with 21 stolen bases and plenty of room to grow.) He will be joined in the garden by newcomers Justin (.280, with 17 home runs, 107 runs scored and 18 steals for Arizona) and B.J. (.246-28-78, with 31 steals for Tampa Bay) Upton. All three are under thirty and have the potential to push each other to greater heights in 2013. The lineup also includes a couple of additional 23-year-olds in first basemanFreddie Freeman (23 homers and 94 RBI) and flashy fielding shortstop Andrelton Simmons, who hit .289 in 49 games last season. Dan Uggla at second and Brian McCann behind the plate will add punch to the offense and a veteran presence in the clubhouse – although there is a hole to file at third (Chipper Jones).
The Braves have perhaps the hardest throwing bullpen in baseball, led by closer Craig Kimbrel (42 saves, 1.01 ERA, 116 strikeouts in 63 innings). The difference between the Braves and Nationals is the starting rotation. The Braves have some quality arms (Kris Medlen, Tim Hudson, Pat Maholm, and Mike Minor, with Julio Teheran and Randall Delgado fighting for a spot), but they have not proven the abilty to perform at the Nationals’ level.
Phillies … The Phils can keep it interesting behind the arms of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels – as good a top three as there is in baseball. The bullpen, beyond Jonathan Papelbon and newcomer Mike Adams, is suspect and the offense is starting to show its age. Comeback seasons from Ryan Howard and Chase Utley would go a long way toward making the Phillies a force in the pennant race.
Mets … The Mets have David Wright (.306-21-93) and Ike Davis (.227-32-90) to power the offense, as well as high hopes for rookie catcher Travis d’Arnaud (acquired in the trade of Cy Young winner R.A. Dickey) – but a lot of holes to fill beyond that.
Marlins … Fire Sale – come to see Giancarlo Stanton hit long bombs … enough said.
NL Central – Reds
The Reds should repeat as NL Central Champs, but not without a fight from the Cardinals. The Reds return a strong rotation and a solid everyday lineup. In fact, during the offseason, the one thing the Reds truly were shopping for was a leadoff hitter. They got one in the Indians Shin-Soo Choo (.283-16-67, with 21 steals for the Indians), who will patrol centerfield in 2013.
The middle of the lineup is once again strong: first baseman Joey Votto (.337-14-56 in 111 games); left fielder Ryan Ludwick (.275-26-80); and right fielder Jay Bruce (.252-34-99). With Choo leading off, second baseman Brandon Phillips will add power and speed (.281, 18 homers, 15 steals) from the number-two spot in the order. At the bottom of the order, frosting on the cake, third baseman Todd Frazier and shortstop Zack Cozart contributed a combined 34 roundtrippers.
This 2013 squad has the ability to put runs on the board – and they have the ability to keep the opposition at bay as well.
The starting rotation is solid, with four starters topping 200 innings. Number-one is Johnny Cueto, still improving at age 27 and coming off a 19-9, 2.78 season. Then there’s Mat Latos (14-4, 3.48), Homer Bailey (13-10, 3.68) and Bronson Arroyo (12-10, 3.74). Most likely joining, and improving, the rotation in 2013 is fire-balling reliever Aroldis Chapman.
The bullpen will be led by Jonathan Broxton, who saved 27 games with the Royals and Reds in 2012. Support will come from the likes of Sean Marshall (5-5, 2.52, 9 saves in 73 appearances; Jose Arrendondo (6-2, 2.95 in 66 appearances); Alfredo Simon (3-2, 2.66 in 36 appearances; and Logan Ondrusek (5-2, 3.46 in 63 appearances).
Very simply, “The Red are Ready.” This is a good team, top to bottom, and should repeat as Division champs, followed by the:
Cardinals … The loss of Chris Carpenter is a tough blow, but the Cardinals still have quality pitching with Adam Wainwright, Lance Lynn and Jake Westbrook (a combined 45 wins last year) and potential Rookie of the Year Shelby Miller expected to make the rotation. The starters are supported by a solid bullpen, led by closer Jason Motte (42 saves a year ago). Offensively, Matt Holiday, Carlos Beltran, Yadier Molina, David Freese and Allen Craig all topped 20 home runs in 2013. The Cards should keep it interesting
Pirates … Every year I expect them to break .500, maybe this is the year, but now I doubt it. It’s really the Andrew McCutchen and Garret Jones show on offense – and A.J. Burnett and Wandy Rodriguez on the mound. In 2013, newcomer (C) Rusell Martin should boost the offense and good seasons by Pedro Alvarez and Neil Walker would help. There seems to be more hope than help after A.J. Burnett and Wandy Rodriguez in the competition for the starting rotation.
Brewers … The Brewers will go as far as their offense (Ryan Braun, Corey Hart, Aramis Ramirez) will take them – and drop as far as their pitching will pull them (Yovani Gallardo will lead a relatively inexperience and unproven starting staff – supported by a bullpen that added fuel to plenty of fires a year ago).
Cubs … The Cubs have been headed in the wrong direction – winning fewer games each season since their 2008 playoff appearance. 2013 doesn’t look to reverse that trend. Still, there are Anthony Rizzo’s bat, Darwin Barney’s glove, Starlin Castro’s speed to watch and Wrigley Field and Wrigleyville to enjoy. Just don’t expect too many wins.
NK WEST – Giants
It starts with pitching for the defending West Division champs – and there is enough of it to enable the Giants to defend the crown. First is often unsung Cy Young candidate Matt Cain (16-5, 2.79). Number-two is lefty Madison Bumgarner (16-11, 3.37) – as good a right-lefty combo as you’ll findin the NL. Three and four are Ryan Volgelson and Barry Zito, who won 14 and 15 games respectively in 2012. The wild card is two-time Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum. The wheels came off last year (10-15, 5.18) and the Giants still led the Division. If the 29-year-old rights the ship, the Giants’ vaunted rotation gets even stronger.
With Brian Wilson gone, the bullpen is a little less set. Sergio Romo 4-2, 1.79, 14 saves) has the advantage, but he’ll get plenty of support (and competition) from Santiago Casilla (7-6, 2.84, 25 saves). Also in the pen are quality veterans Jeremy Affeldt and Javier Lopez.
The offense is not as potent as the pitching, but there is enough to get the job done. At the 2-4-5 spots, the Giants have hard hitting (but injury prone) Pablo Sandoval, MVP Buster Posey and the overlooked Hunter Pence (.253-24-104 with the Phillies and Giants). Setting the table are (CF) Angel Pagan and (2B) Marco Scutaro – who both had career years in 2012. Also contributing is the improving Brandon Belt. Another Brandon – shortstop Brandon Crawford – solidified the infield with Gold Glove-caliber defense. Ultimately, it’s not a flashy, star-powered offense, but it has the pieces to get the job done. Following the Giants will be:
Dodgers … If things go right, the Dodgers (with MLB’s highest payroll) could unseat the Giants. There is star power in LA, and not just in Hollywood.
Let’s start with the lineup. The heart of the order is slated to include Adrian Gonzalez (1B), Matt Kemp (CF), Andre Ethier (RF) … a formidable trio, but not without issues. Kemp – with the potential to be a Triple Crown candidate (with speed) – is coming back from offseason elbow surgery and Gonzalez is still figuring out how to hit in Dodger Stadium. Joining this trio as run-makers are shortstop Hanley Ramirez (.257-24-92, with 21 steals for Miami and LA) and speedy Carl Crawford (coming off elbow surgery). What makes this team even more interesting is bench strength – Jerry Hairston, Jr., Skip Schumaker, and Nick Punto are a high-quality, versatile bunch.
The rotation is sound – but just as the Giants don’t have the offensive stars of the Dodgers, LA’s stardom does not go as deep on the mound. Still Cy Young candidate (maybe favorite) Clayton Kershaw, newly acquired Zack Grienke, Josh Beckett, Chad Billingsley and Korean Baseball sensation Hyun-Jin Ryu should keep the Dodgers in the race. The bullpen is also deep, with closer Brandon League and a support staff of Kenley Jansen, Javy Guerra and J.P. Howell.
If Crawford and Kemp are healthy and Grienke earns his contract, LA and SF will likely change places … both teams should make the playoffs.
Diamondbacks … Make no doubt about it, this is a pretty good team – just unfortunate to play in the NL West – and newcomer (in the Justin Upton trade) Martin Prado’s bat, versatile glove and attitude will make them better. Prado – who played five positions last year – should take over third base for the Snakes. With Atlanta in 2012, he hit .301 (he’s topped .300 in four of the last five seasons and has a .295 career average), with 10 home runs, 70 RBI, 81 runs and 17 steals. He’ll probably slip into the five- or six-hole in the D-backs’ lineup, which includes quality reliable bats in catcher Miguel Montero (.286-15-88), outfielder Jason Kubel (.253-30-90), still improving first baseman Paul Goldschmidt (.286-20-82) and outfield Cody Ross (.267-22-82), along with platesetters Aaron Hill and Adam Eaton.
The rotation is solid, if not spectacular, led by righty Ian Kennedy (15-12, 4.02 – and a 21-game winner in 2011) and young lefty Wade Miley (16-11, 3.33), runner up to Bryce Harper for NL Rookie of the Year. Trevor Cahill, Brandon and Patrick Corbin will round out the rotation. The bullpen is in good hands with closer J.J. Putz (77 saves in the past two seasons), Health Bell and Brad Ziegler.
Padres … The offense is led by third baseman Chase Headley, who broke out with a .286-31-115 season (17 steals) – despite playing a pitcher’s park. The offense drops off pretty fast. Only one other Padre topped 50 RBI, rookie first baseman Yonder Alonso (.273-9-62) and only one other Padre reached 10 home run (Carlos Quentin, .261-16-46 in 86 games). A full season of Quentin would help the Padres and provide some protection for Headley. The pitching staff is without a true ace, Clayton Richard led the way with a 14-14, 3.99 record, followed by Edison Volquez at 11-11, 4.14. It’s not a good thing when you play in one of MLB’s most pitcher-friendly parks and still have concerns about your rotation. Huston Street heads fairly strong bullpen (Luke Gregerson, Dale Thayer, Brad Bach).
Rockies … The Rockies are long on offense (Carlos Gonzalez, Troy Tulowitski, Todd Helton, Wilin Rosario, Micheal Cuddyer) if they are healthy. Helton, Gonzalez and Tulo all fought the injury bug last season. Pitching, however, is another story. Yes, it’s Coors Field, but Colorado starters rang up MLB’s highest ERA at 5.81. No starter reached 120 innings and reliever Rex Brothers led the team with eight wins. The relief staff, led by closer Rafeal Betancourt (31 saves) is adequate – but suffers the consequences of overwork (the Rockies set an MLB record with 657 relief innings last season.) Still Betancourt, Brothers, Matt Belisle and Wilton Lopez are a game bunch out of the pen. A little improvement in the rotation would move the Rockies past the Padres.
Wild Cards – Dodgers, Braves
NL Champions – Nationals



































