Way Off Base – BBRT Projects 2014 Pennant Races

Way off base – that’s pretty much how BBRT’s 2014 predictions will be. I’m looking for a few surprises in the Division races – and I’m going to go out on a limb with a couple of my choices.  (Note:  To see BBRT’s predictions for 2014 MVP, Cy Young and Rookie of the Year winners click here; for a look at 2014 “prospects” click here; and for comments on some veteran players BBRT will be watching this season click here.  Now for the Division races and post season. We’ll start with the basic predictions and move on to a team-by-team evaluation for those readers who like to dig a little deeper.  The look at the upcoming pennant races are, by the way, are more projections (of BBRT’s opinions) than predictions.  But, I think you’ll find some thought-provoking observations – even if you don’t agree.

Note:  BBRT held these predictions until after the opening series in Australia – and is still referring to them as “preseason” picks – to express my disapproval regarding these early overseas openers.  Not much of a protest, I admit.  However, you can see my last season’s rant on this topic here.

AL East

This may be the toughest division in baseball –  every team could finish above .500.  (In 2013, all but the Blue Jays finished north of .500 and, as a division, the AL East finished 55 games over break-even.)  BBRT is going against conventional wisdom and predicting the defending World Champion Red Sox will finish third, with the restructured (and better balanced, even with Robinson Cano) Yankees capturing the Division and the Rays (thanks to the East’s best pitching and defense) repeating as an AL Wild Card. Ultimately, however, any of these three teams can take the Division, depending on who gets the breaks (good and bad).

1. Yankees
2. Rays (Wild Card)
3. Red Sox
4. Orioles
5. Blue Jays

AL Central

BBRT does not expect any big surprises in the AL Central.  The Tigers’ power hitting and, in particular, their power pitching should keep them in first place pretty much from wire to wire.  The Royals and Indians will fight it out for second place, with the Royals looking a bit deeper.

1. Tigers
2. Royals
3. Indians
4. White Sox
5. Twins

AL West

BBRT looks for a shakeup in the AL West standings, with the Rangers winning the Division and the Angels (thanks in part to a finally healthy Albert Pujols) capturing second place (and an AL Wild Card spot). This may be the one division in which offense trumps pitching in determining the outcome, largely because the Athletics (winners of the West the past two seasons) have seen injuries bring their superior staff back to the pack. Still, the A’s have managed to surprise, so don’t count them out. They’ll stay close, but the firepower of the Rangers and Angels is likely to be too much to overcome.

1. Rangers
2. Angels (Wild Card)
3. A’s
4. Mariners
5. Astros

NL East

It looks like a two-team race in the NL East, with the Washington Nationals poised to edge out the Atlanta Braves (whose chances to repeat at the top of the division are hampered by health issues in the starting rotation).  BBRT likes the Mets’ young pitching, mentored by newly acquired veteran Bartolo Colon, to bring them into third.

1. Nationals
2. Braves (Wild Card)
3. Mets
4. Phillies
5. Marlins

NL Central

The 2013 NL Central race featured three teams that won 90 or more games – and all three made the playoffs.  Those franchises didn’t “mess with success.”  So, not much has changed and it looks like a three-team race again (Cards, Red, Pirates).  BBRT expects the Cards (who don’t seem to have a weakness) to come out on top again, with the Reds taking second (reversing positions with the Pirates).

1. Cardinals
2. Reds (Wild Card)
3. Pirates
4. Brewers
5. Cubs

NL West

The Dodgers are the Cardinals of the West – a team with a strong pitching staff, solid defense and a well-balanced offense.  They should easily dominate the West, leaving the Diamondback and Giants to battle it out for second place and a likely Wild Card berth.  Going into the season, BBRT give the Giants the edge, based on a more consistent lineup and the belief that two of the three starting pitchers suffering subpar seasons in 2013 (Matt Cain, Ryan Vogelson, Tim Lincecum) will rebound and make pitching an SF strong suit again.  Arizona’s chances to hold off the Giants also were dimmed a bit by the loss of staff ace Patrick Corbin.

1. Dodgers
2. Giants
3. Diamondbacks
4. Padres
5. Rockies

 

WORLD SERIES – TIGERS defeat DODGERS

Now, for those who want a deeper look, here are some team-by-team thoughts.

 

 AL EAST

 

Yankees – First Place

Probably no team made more changes in the off-season than the Yankees – and still they look as potentially successful and potentially susceptible (to age, injuries and controversy) as they did one year ago. Last year, BBRT correctly predicted the Bronx Bombers would miss the playoffs for just the second time in 19 seasons (although I also had the Blue Jays taking the East title). This year, a rejuvenated Yankee team should take the AL East.

Why? First, the key losses. Gone are: All Star 2B Robinson Cano (free agency); legendary closer Mariano Rivera (retirement); 3B Alex Rodriguez (suspension); 11-game winner Andy Pettite (retirement). Also moving on are pitchers Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes and Boone Logan; OF Curtis Granderson; and infielders Mark Reynolds and Kevin Youkilis.  The Yankees, however, did not just sit back and absorb the losses. In the offseason, they lured solid leadoff hitter Jacob Ellsbury (.298, 52 steals) from the division-rival Red Sox, picked up an All Star catcher in former Brave Brian McCann (a left-handed pull hitter, who could benefit from his new home park), and added a proven clutch hitter in Carlos Beltran (Cardinals).  Add this group to the line-up holdovers from last season’s 85-win squad and the Yankees line up looks stronger and more balanced than a year ago.

In addition, they signed a potential front-of-the-rotation starter in Masahiro Tanaka (24-0, 1.27 in Japan last season).  The Bronx Bombers still need a rebound from former ace C.C. Sabathia, but with Hiroki Kuroda and Ivan Nova, contributions (finally and hopefully) from 2011 All Star Michael Pineda, and a bullpen headed by new closer David Robertson, the pitching looks to be in good shape.

Key Question – How much can the Yankees expect from Derek Jeter and Mark Teixiera, who played a combined 32 games last season?

Rays –Second Place/Wild Card

Pitching and Defense wins games – and that Rays have plenty of both.  BBRT believes  they have enough to again make it to the post season – despite the East’s lowest payroll.   Tampa Bay may have the best YOUNG starting staff in baseball in baseball in David Price, Matt Moore, Alex Cobb, Chris Archer and Jake Ordozzi (the likely replacement for injured Jeremey Hellickson). This staff is backed by a defense that’s made the second-fewest errors in all of MLB last season (59, second to Baltimore’s 54). For the end game, the Rays lost closer Fernando Rodney (who saved 37 games last year), but went out and picked up Grant Balfour (who saved 38 games with a 2.59 ERA for the A’s last year) and  Health Bell (168 career saves, with 43 saves a recently as 2011).

While the offense is spotty, BBRT sees enough punch – from 3B Evan Longoria, 1B James Loney and RF Wil Myers –  to take the Rays back to the playoffs.  A return to 20-homer power by 2B Ben Zobrist (.275-12-71 in 2013) would help.

Ultimately, the Rays will go as far as pitching and defense will carry them.  BBRT thinks that the distance will be measured in 90 wins and a Wild Card slot.

Key Question – How good can Wil Myers be?  If he continues to develop, the Rays offense will take an important step forward.

Red Sox – Third Place

The Boston Red Sox return the core of a last year’s World Series Champion team: On offense that means DH David Ortiz; 2B Dustin Pedroia; 1B Mike Napoli; and RF Shane Victorino.  The two key losses are leadoff hitter/CF Jacob Ellsbury and C Jarrod Saltalamacchia. Free agent signee A.J. Pierzynski (.272-17-70 with Texas) should bring enough offense and more than enough “grit” to replace “Salty,” but Ellsbury’s bat and speed will be missed at the top of the lineup.

The core of the Red Sox’ rotation also will be back (Jon Lester and Felix Doubront, Clay Bucholz, Jake Peavy and John Lackey). It’s a rotation without a lot of flash, but one that can offer consistent quality starts.  In the bull pen, it’s unlikely that 39-year-old closer Koji Uehara can repeat his 2013 success (4-1, 1.09, 21 saves – just 9 walks versus 101 strikeouts in 74 1/3 innings). If he’s even close, however, the Red Sox will again have one of the league’s elite closers.  If Uehara falters, the Sox have free-agent pickup Edward Mujica (37 saves for the Cardinals last year) in the wings.

Overall, the Red Sox have a balanced team that should be in the race to the finish. But  considering the strength of the Division,  the possibility of two rookies in the line up and concerns over the age of some key veterans, BBRT sees that finish as third place. In AL East, however, the Yankees, Rays and Red Sox all have a chance to reach the post season.

Key Question – Who plays center field, rookie Jackie Bradley or comeback hopeful Grady Sizemore?

Orioles – Fourth Place

In any other Division, the Orioles might very well be fighting for the top spot. In the AL East, thin pitching may compromise their chances. The Birds boast a powerful line up, which also plays solid defense (the fewest errors in MLB in 2013).  The offense is led by 1B Chris Davis, last year’s AL HR and RBI leader. Davis gets solid support from holdovers CF Adam Jones, C Matt Weiters, SS J.J. Hardy and newcomer DH Nelson Cruz (all who popped 20+ home runs in 2013).   Of concern is Gold Glove/solid hitting third baseman Manny Machado’s recovery from knee surgery and whether at 30-years-old, OF Nick Markakis can reverse his decline at the plate and return to his 2007-09 form (when he averaged .299-20-100 per season).

Pitching, however, is the main issue – as it was last season when the Orioles used 14 starters.  The starting staff is led by right hander Chris Tillman and much-welcomed newcomer Ubaldo Jimenez, but lacks the depth of those at the top of the East. Couple that with the loss of All Star closer Jim Johnson (and no experienced replacement in the wings) and the Orioles, while still likely to top .500, are unlikely to compete with the AL East’s top three.

Key Question – Is Tommy Hunter (6-5, 2.81, 4 saves last season) ready to replace All-Star closer Jim Johnson (50 saves in 2013), now with the Athletics (especially since the O’s passed on Grant Balfour)?

Blue Jays – Fifth Place

In 2013, after a very busy winter – including the acquisition of Jose Reyes, Emilio Bonifacio, Mark Buehrle, Josh Johnson, R.A. Dickey and Melky Cabrera –  many (including BBRT) had the Blue Jays making the playoffs. BBRT won’t make the same mistake again.  The Jays finished fifth in 2013 and didn’t improve their roster in the off season.  To compete in the tough East, the Jays will need a rebound from starters R.A. Dickey and Mark Buehrle (and then some – last season, the Jays’ starting ERA was the second worst in the AL), and full (read healthy) seasons from SS Jose Reyes and RF Jose Bautista.

Key Question – How many games – and what level of performance – will they get from the two Jose’s so key to their line up? Reyes and Bautista played 93 and 118 games, respectively, in 2013.

 

AL CENTRAL

Tigers – First Place

While excitement in the Motor City may start with two-time MVP Miguel Cabrera, it’s the power arms of the Tigers’ rotation that will keep Detroit on top of the AL Central – even after parting with slugger Prince Fielder and fourteen-game winner Doug Fister in the off season.

The Tigers have one of the best 1-2-3 mound combinations in baseball in Cy Young Award winners Justin Verlander (2011 CYA) and Max Scherzer (2013 CYA) and Anibel Sanchez (who may have a CYA in his future).  The back of the rotation features Rick Porcello (a 13-game winner) last year and Fister’s likely replacement, Drew Smyly. The Tigers addressed a trouble spot in the off-season, acquiring veteran closer Joe Nathan (6-2, 1.39, 43 saves with Texas).

The offense is led by Cabrera, with capable support from the likes of RF Torii Hunter, CF Austin Jackson and DH Victor Martinez. Also adding to the offense is 2B Ian Kinsler (acquired in the Fielder trade), who not only improves the middle infield defense, but put up a 2013 line of .272-13-72, with 15 steals (and is only two season removed from a 32-home run campaign).  Still, there are challenges. The acquisition of Kinsler, following the mid-season 2013 acquisition of sharp-fielding shortstop Jose Iglesias, was going to 1) shore up the infield defense, 2) allow Cabrera to move back to first, and 3) open third base for top prospect Nick Castellanos (.276-18-76 at AAA.)  The best-laid plans can go awry, and Iglesias will start the season on the Disabled List (stress fractures in both shins). This may leading to a platoon at the key SS position (unless the Tigers go after free agent Stephen Drew).  Still, the Tigers appear to have enough in a strong pitching staff and a balanced line up (led by run-producing machine Cabrera) to hold off the challengers until Iglesias returns.

Key Question – How long will Jose Iglesias be out – and who will fill the gap at shortstop?

Royals – Second Place

The Royals remained among the AL Wild Card contenders until late in the 2013  season – finishing ten games over .500 and showing promise for 2014.  While neither their pitching nor offense will dominate opponents, there is enough depth and quality in both to move up a notch into second place (and even challenge for a Wild Card berth).  The Royals are led on offense buy 1B Eric Hosmer and DH Billy Butler and, on the mound, by starter James Shields and closer Greg Holland (47 saves a year ago).  The Royals also can expect contributions on offense from the likes of C Salvador Perez, LF Alex Gordon, and RF Norichika Aoki. A rebound from 3b Mike Moustakas (.233-12-42 last year) would be a welcome boost.

The starting rotation doesn’t have the power of the Tigers, but there is consistency and quality in Shields, 15-game winner Jeremey Guthrie, Bruce Chen, Jason Vargas and highly touted rookie Yorlando Ventura.  The starting staff is backed by a bullpen that sees closer Holland ably supported by a group of hard-throwing setup and middle men.

Key Question – Will Mike Moustakas put up stronger power numbers in 2014?

Indians – Third Place

The Indians surprised a lot of people with 92 wins and a Wild Card spot last year.  This year, looks less promising. The first disturbing sign is the Tribe’s need to replace 350 innings of starting pitching due to the free-agent losses of  Ubaldo Jimenez and Scott Kazmir. The new rotation – led by last year’s 14-game winner Justin Masterson – has potential, but Corey Kluber is the only other starter with at least ten wins a year ago.  Danny Salazar showed electric stuff late in the season, and Zach McAllister should hold the number-four position. The Indians will need to hold auditions for the final spot and it’s time for Trevor Bauer to finally show his potential. If Bauer doesn’t step, we may see a move of hard-throwing Carlos Carrasco from the bull pen to the rotation. There are some quality arms in the bullpen, but still some uncertainty at closer. The hope is that newcomer John Axford (a set-up man in Milwaukee and Saint Louis in 2013) can close for the Indians. Axford did save 81 games for Milwaukee in 2011-12.

The offense looks decent, but not spectacular. The power needs to come from 1B Nick Swisher, DH Carlos Santana and 2B Jason Kipnis (who hit 22, 20 and 17 homers, respectively, last year). And solid seasons will be needed from C Yan Gomes, SS Asdrubal Cabrera, CF Michael Bourn and LF Michael Brantley.  The Indians have enough to edge over .500, but the Tigers and Royals put more potential on the field. Third base could be interesting, as the Indians appear to be looking at either moving C/DH  Carlos Santana to the hot corner (thanks to Gomes’ 2013 performance) or trying out Lonnie Chisenhall (who hit 11 home runs in 308 MLB at bats last year, but averaged only .225).

Key Question – Can projected lead-off hitter Michael Bourn improve on his .316 On Base Percentage? (As a Brave in 2012, Bourn hit .274, with a .348 OBP and 42 steals.  In 2013, those numbers dropped to .262, .316, 23.)

White Sox – Fourth Place

The White Sox won’t be in the race, but they should improve on last year’s 63-win season. On the mound, Chris Sale (11-14, 3.07) has true “ace” stuff and Jose Quintana and Erik Johnson showed potential in 2013. Overall, however,  the rotation is suspect. Couple that with the need to replace closer Addison Reed (hard-throwing Nate Jones – 89 whiffs in 78 innings last year is the most likely candidate) and Chicago will need plenty of offense to win. Unfortunately, the offense need help (only Miami scored fewer runs than the Sox last season, and the Sox didn’t do much to address the issue).  They did acquire CF Adam Eaton and 3B Mark Davidson in the off season; both are one-time “prospects” who have yet to realize their potential. Adam Dunn  and Cuban import Jose Abreu will be expected to supply the power. The Sox are hoping Abreu can be the next successful run producer out of Cuba (ala Yeonis Cespedes and Yasiel Puig).  The Sox may be better, but not third-place better.

Key Question: Will Jose Abreu (.316-19-60 in 83 games in Mexico) be the next successful Cuban import?

Minnesota Twins – Fifth Place

The Twins suffered the perfect storm in 2013 (again), finishing 25^th out of 30 MLB teams in runs scored, while giving up the second most runs.  They should improve a bit –  but not enough –  in the pitching department with the addition of starters Ricky Nolasco (a reliable innings-eater who went 13-11, 3,70 with the Marlins and Dodgers last year) and Phil Hughes (who had a dismal 2013, but won 16 games in 2012).  The Twins also have an able bullpen, led by closer Glen Perkins (2-0, 2.30, 36 saves).

The Twins did little address their offsense in the off season.  Joe Mauer is the offensive leader, and his shift to first base may lead to a fourth batting title. After that it thins out fast. The Twins absolutely must have a rebound from OF/DH Josh Willingham (.208-14-48 last season after a .260-35-110 season in 2012). Further development from Brian Dozier (the top returning HR and RBI man at .244-18-66) would help; as would the emergence of either Oswaldo Arcia or Aaron Hicks as a productive corner outfielder.  The club is also looking at (and hoping for a rebound from) former Twin OF Jason Kubel, who suffered a notable decline in 2013, after a 30-homer season for he Diamondbacks in 2012.  If he could provide 15-20 HR power, he will find himself back in the Minnesota line up.  Realistically, after Mauer, Willingham and Dozier, the Twins lineup has a lot to prove.  The Twins do have solid – even top line – prospects on their way up both offensively (Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton) and on the mound (Alex Meyer and Trevor May), but they won’t be competitive until those names start to show up on the regular season roster.

Key Question – Will either Mike Pelfrey or Vance Worley – considered key acquisitions a year ago – rebound? In 2013, Pelfrey went 5-13, 5.19 and Worley went 1-5, 7.21.

 

AL WEST

Rangers – First Place

The Ian Kinsler for 1B Prince Fielder (.279-25-106 in an “off year’) trade, the addition of LF Shin-Soo Choo (.285-21 HR, 20 steals, 107 runs) at the top of the order, coupled with injury concerns in the Oakland A’s starting rotation pave the way for Texas to capture the West title in a close race with the Angels.  There will be plenty of offense in Texas, with Fielder, Choo and the likes of 3B Adrian Beltre (.315-30-92), RF Alex Rios, SS Elvis Andrus.  In evaluating the Rangers’s offense, it’s also important to recognize it’s not all about power.  Andrus, Choo, Rios and CF Leonys Martin stole a combined 114 bases in 2013.

The pitching is less stable – and, in fact, pitching concerns are common across the Division. . Yu Darvish gives the Rangers a true number-one (and potential Cy Young Award winne)r, but Derek Holland (10-9, 3.42) and Matt Harrison will start the season on the DL. Martin Perez (10-6, 3.62) is in the number-two slot. That leaves a fight for rotation spots among Alexi Ogando, Coby Lewis, Tommy Hanson, Robbie Ross and Joe Saunders – and we may see a staff generated by default. (There has even been some talk of moving Tanner Scheppers – was thought of as a potential replacement for Nathan -from the bullpen to the rotation. Scheppers delivered a 1.88 ERA in 76 innings last season.) The Rangers also face the prospect of replacing departed closer Joe Nathan (43 saves in 2013), with Neftali Perez and Joakim Soria the key candidates.

Ultimately, BBRT thinks the Rangers have enough offense to offset any shortcomings on the mound.

Key Question – Will the Rangers’ bullpen – minus Joe Nathan and whomever moves into the rotation to replace Derek Holland and Matt Harrison – be able to hold the  leads the offense and rotation pass on to them?

Angels – Second Place/Wild Card

The Angels were a major disappointment in 2013, finishing 78-84, despite high expectations from fans and analysts alike.  While many prognosticators seem to have learned their lesson and project a third- or fourth-place finish for the Halos, BBRT projects the Angels to finish second – thanks in part to the pitching woes facing their key competitors (the Rangers and Athletics).  This is based on the blief that 1B Albert Pujols (finally free from plantar fasciitis) and a revitalized LF Josh Hamilton will rebound from 2013’s performance (putting together combined 2014 total in the area of 60/65 home runs and 200/220 RBI). Add in the expected contributions of the phenomenal Mike Trout, 2B Howie Kendrick and newcomer 3B David Freese and the Angels’ offense should be potent (despite the loss of Mark Trumbo).

The starting rotation will again be led by Jered Weaver and C.J. Wilson and there is potential for improvement in Garret Richards (a 3.59 ERA in the second half) and Hector Santiago and Tyler Skaggs (both acquired in the Trumbo trade).  The bullpen looks sound enough, with Ernesto Fieri (37 saves) now in the closer role.  To finish second, the Angels just need reasonable performance from the 3-4-5 spots in the rotation (provided Pujols and Hamilton live up to expectations and Trout stays healthy).

Key Question – Is a healthy Albert  Pujols ready reverse his declining offensive numbers? If so, he changes not only the strength of the Angels lineup, but its “attitude” as well.

A’s – Third Place

The A’s have surprised a lot of people –including BBRT – taking the West title the past two seasons. Pitching (the AL’s second-lowest ERA in 2013) has been the key – lots of strong young arms in the rotation and a solid bullpen. Now the A’s go into the season with two key starters (Jarrod Parker and A.J Griffin) on the DL and All Star Bartolo Colon (18-6, 2.65)  replace by Scott Kazmir (10-9, 4.04 with Cleveland), the A’s pitching comes back to the AL West pack in 2013.  The A’s lost closer Grant Balfour, but their strong bullpen should not skip a beat, thanks to pick up Jim Johnson (50 saves last year).

The lineup is intriguing – if not stable (no specific lineup/batting order  was used more than five tims last season). Its strength is in its depth (four players with 20+ homers, led by 1B Brandon Moss, 3B Josh Donaldson and LF Yeonis Cespedes), rather than its ability to simply overpower the opposition.

Ultimately, the A’s need strong seasons from young starters Dan Straily and Sonny Gray and continued platoon magic to repeat as Division champs.  BBRT thinks they will fall a bit short.

Key Question – Is Josh Reddick  fully recovered from wrist surgery and ready to return to his Gold Glove and 32-homer form of 2012?  If so, he adds a powerful bat and solid defense to the A’s outfield – perhaps enough to push the club into the post season.

Mariners – Fourth Place

The Mariners made the biggest splash in the offseason signing 2B Robinson Cano (as well as Cory Hart and Logan Morrison) to bolster an offense that finished 12^th in the AL in runs scored. There isn’t enough protection for Cano in a lineup that hit only .237 a year ago. Unfortuately,  the lack of offense production will likely derail the work of a pretty solid pitching staff led by Felix Hernandez, Hisashi Iwakuma, high-potential youngster Taijuan Walker and new closer Fernando Rodney. Overall, it looks like a 13^th consecutive season out of the playoffs for Seattle.

Key Question –   Is Corey Hart, after surgery on both knees, ready to contribute?  Hart who did not play last season, is a two-time All Star, who hit .270, with 30 home runs in 2012. A healthy Hart could help create more opportunities for Cano.

Astros – Fifth Place

The Astros finished an MLB-worst 50 games under .500 in 2013 and seem to be treading water while they wait for a host of prospects (George Springer, Jonathan Singleton, Carlos Correa, Mark Appel) to work their way onto the roster. Newcomer Scott Feldman (12-12, 3.86 with the Cubs and Orioles last year) will add some experience and could help bring some of yound mound talent along.  The bullpen, which blew 29 saves a year ago, should be better, with the Astros signing veterans Jessie Crain, Chad Qualls and Matt Albers.  Overall, the team will be improved, but not enough to move up in the AL West standing.

Key Question – When will we see Of George Springer, Minor League Baseballs 2013 Offensive Player of the Year (.303-37-108, with 45 steals at AA/AAA last season)?

 

NL EAST

 Nationals – First Place

It all starts on the mound for the Nationals, who boast what may be the NL’s top rotation – Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmerman, newcomer Doug Fister (replacing departed Dan Haren) and Ross Detwiler or Taylor Jordan in the fifth spot.  Backing up this quality rotation is a bullpen headed by Rafael Soriano (43 saves, despite a loss in velocity).  If the Nationals do have a weak point, it may be the pen, which had the NL’s fifth worse ERA a year ago.  With the strength of the rotation, however, the bull pen should not be over-taxed.

The Nationals’ offense should be provide plenty of spark – led by LF Bryce Harper (just 21-years-old and primed for a breakout season), 3B Ryan Zimmerman, SS Ian Desmond, RF Jayson Werth, and 1B Adam LaRoche – all of whom reached at least 20 home runs in 2013.  All the pieces are in place to unseat the Braves – and new manager Matt Williams may prove to be just the right skipper to keep this crew on an even keel.l Critical to 2014 success will be a strong confidence-building  start to the season.

Key Question: Will this be the year the carefully handled Stephen Strasburg reaches 200 innings pitched? That would signal good things for the Nats,  a great season for Strasburg and less stress for the bull pen,

Braves – Second Place – Wild Card

The Braves easily captured the NL East last year despite sub-par seasons from a trio of key players CF (B.J Upton and 2B Dan Uggla both hit under .200 and RF Jayson Heyward managed only 14 home runs and 38 RBI).  Line-up issues are amplified this season by the need to replace All Star catcher Brian McCann. There is, however, ample offense in 1B Freddie Freeman (.319-23-109 and a legitimate MVP candidate), LF Justin Upton (.263-27-70) and 3B Chris Johnson (.321-12-68). Even SS Andrelton Simmons chipped in with 17 round trippers.  Still, the Braves can ill-afford to have one-third of the lineup underachieving in 2014.

The Braves also face some challenges on the mound, where starting pitchers Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy could both be lost for the season and Mike Minor is likely unavailable early on.   The Braves did acquire free agent Ervin Santana, but the disruption to the rotation could prove costly.  Still, they have quality starters in Alex Wood (3-3, 3.13) and Julio Teheran (14-8, 3.20) – with Teheran potentially filling the role of number-one starter. Others auditioning for starting roles include journeyman Freddie Garcia and David Hale and Gus Schlosser.  While the rotation is in disarray, the bullpen is solid, with closer Craig Kimbrel (50 saves, 1.21 ERA, 13+ strikeouts per nine inning) possibly the best in the business.

Ultimately, BBRT projects the patchwork rotation will cost the Braves a repeat East title (and, if Minor is out for very long, perhaps even a Wild Card slot).

Key Question – Can B.J. Upton (.184-9-26 in 2013) join brother Justin as a key contributor to the Braves’ offense? 

Mets – Third Place

Despite losing ace Matt Harvey for the season, the Mets look to be in good shape to hold on to third place in the East. Plus, they get points for showing a commitment to becoming competitive in the off season, with such acquisitions as OF Curtis Granderson and SP Bartolo Colon. In addition, they made some low risk signings in starters Daisuke Matsuzaka and John Lannan and relievers Jose Valverde and Kyle Farnsworth. The offense will be, again, centered around 3B David Wright, with a supporting cast of Granderson, 1B Ike Davis (hopefully healthy) and 2B Daniel Murphy.

The real excitement, however, is focused on the starting rotation, where Jon Neise, Zack Wheeler and Dillon Gee have all shown potential (all with ERAs under 3.75 a year ago), veteran Bartolo Colon (18-6, 2.65 last year) is now on board as the number-one starter (and mentor), Jenrry Mejia has a shot at the number-five spot, and Noah Syndergard (when he comes up) could possibly be the best of the lot. (And, don’t forget Matt Harvey for 2015.)  The bull pen needs help (hence the signing of vets Farnsworth and Valverde) and may prove a trouble spot.

Ultimately, the Mets’ solid pitching will enable them to hold on to third place – and a weak offense will keep them for going any higher.  That said, if the Braves’ rotation suffers a complete meltdown, the Mets could move up a notch.

Key Question – Can Curtis Granderson return to form?  Granderson is only one season, a fractured forearm and a broken knuckle away from a 43- home run, 126 RBI season (2012). 

Phillies – Fourth Place

To move up a notch in the standing, the Phillies would need key infield veterans like 1B Ryan Howard, 2B Chase Utely, and SS Jimmy Rollins to rebound.  Howard is particularly important, being a potential 40-home run bat when healthy.  If those three can once again do some damage, there is help available from the outfield – CF Ben Revere (.305, with 16 steals in 88 games), RF Marlon Byrd (.294-24-88) and CF Dominic Brown (.272-27-83).

The Phillies’ rotation will be missing Roy Halladay (retirement), but it still looks pretty good with Cliff Lee (14-8, 2.87), newcomer A.J. Burnett (10-11, 3.30 with the Pirates) and Cole Hamels expected back in late April or early May. The rotation falls off after those three, with the Phils likely to fill out the last two spots from among Kyle Kendrick, Roberto Hernandez (formerly Fausto Carmona), Miguel Gonzalez and spring surprise David Buchanan.  The pen ccould be problematic, with closer Jonathan Papelbon (29 saves a years ago) showing signs of wear.

The Phillies are a veteran team and age seems to be catching up with key players.  BBRT is hoping that the majority of those veteran players rebound.  Couple that with the fact that Lee, Burnett and Hamels should help prevent long losing streaks and the Phillies – though not in contention – could finish third. Fourth, however, seems more likely.

Key Question – Will Cole Hamels rehab remain on track and will he be ready to take his turn in the rotation by May 1?

Marlins – Fifth Place

Like the Phillies, the Marlins will be improve this year, but their 100-loss season leaves so much room for improvement, they can take good strides without reaching .500.  Clearly, they need to jump start the offense.  In 2013, the Marlins finished last among all MLB teams in runs scored, home runs and batting average.  Newcomers C Jarrod Saltalamacchia, SS Rafael Furcal, 1B Garrett Jones and 3B Casey McGehee will help – but there are no Cano-like bats in that mix. What could really help would be a return to form by Giancarlo Stanton, who fell from .290-37-86 in 2012 to .249-24-62 in 2013.

The fish should draw big crowds every fifth day – if just to watch exciting 2013 NL Rookie of the Year Jose Fernandez (12-6, 2.19) take the mound. After that there’s potential in a set of young arms (Nathan Eovaldi, Henderson Alvarez, Jacob Turner), but no one with more than five victories a year ago. If the starters can get the game to the pen, the Marlins have some hard throwers to get to the ninth inning and closer Steve Cishek (34 saves).

Ultimately, a lack of offense and a starting rotation learning on the job will result in a fifth-place finish.

Key Question – Are Jose Fernandez and Giancarlo Stanton enough to put a few more fans in the seats?

NL CENTRAL

Cardinals – First Place

The Cardinals have chance to return to the World Series in 2013, boasting a well-balanced team that should repeat as NL Central champions.   They have a solid rotation – one through five – in Adam Wainwright (19-9), Michael Wacha (4-1), Shelby Miller(15-9), Lance Lynn (15-10) and Joe Kelly (10-5) – and a sound bullpen led by closer Trevor Rosenthal (who took over after Edward Mujica, now with Boston, lost the job), with support from Carlos Martinez, Kevin Siegrist, Randy Choate and Seth Maness.  Wisely, the Cardinals did not mess with success and everyone is back in their roles for 2014.

The Cardinals’ lineup is also stacked, starting behind the plate with hard-hitting, Gold Glove catcher Yadier Molina – a potential NL MVP.  The infield boasts 1B Matt Adams (.284, 17 HRs), major prospect 2B Kolten Wong, 3B Matt Carpenter (.318-11-78) and newcomer SS Jhonny Peralta (.303-11-55 in 107 games). The outfield features solid defense, as well as the bats of Matt Holliday and Allen Craig in the corners. Defensive wiz Petrer Bourjus was signed to hold down CF until top prospect Oscar Taveras is ready.

Key Question – Hard to find a question with this squad, maybe “Is Kolten Wong ready?”  If he needs more seasoning, the Cardinals have free-agent signee Mark Ellis as insurance. 

Reds – Second Place – Wild Card

While the Reds are not likely to overtake the Cardinals, they are in a good position to move past the Pirates into second place (and a Wild Card berth) in the Central. They have a strong lineup led by 1B Joey Votto, 2B Brandon Phillips, 3B Todd Frazier and RF Jay Bruce.  They did lose lead-off hitter/CF Shin-Soo Choo, and are hoping speedster Billy Hamilton can fill the void.  (In the minors, Hamilton hit .311 with 155 stolen bases in 2012 and followed up by hitting .256 with 75 steals at AAA in 2013).  He hit .368 in 13 games after being called up by the Cardinals (with 13 steals in 14 attempts), but there’s still some concern regarding his ability to get on base at the major league level.  If he can hit .250 and draw some walks, Hamilton can be a real game changer.

The Reds have a solid five-man rotation – Homer Bailey, Johnny Cueto, Tony Cingrani, Mat Latos and Mike Leake.  They will, however, miss innings-eater Bronson Arroyo (lost to free agency) – and the bullpen will have to adjust following the late Spring Training injury to flame-throwing closer Aroldis Chapman.

Overall, the Reds seem to fall just short of the Cardinals (particularly in depth) and will miss key contributors Arroyo, Choo and Chapman.  End result, second place in a tough race with the Pirates.

Key Question – Who will step up and fill the closer’s role, while Aroldis Champman heals?

Pirates – Third Place

The Pirates were the feel-good team of 2013, making the playoffs and logging their first winning season in 20 years. The offense will again be led by 2013 NL MVP Andrew McCutchen and league co-leader in home runs 3B Pedro Alvarez, with support from 2B Neil Walker, C Russell Martin, and LF Sterling Marte. SS Jordy Mercer and RF Jose Tabata also hit well in 2013 (averaging .285 and .282, respectively).  Still, even with McCutchen in the line up and the rest matching last year’s performance, the offensive firepower is not as intimidating as the Cardinals or Reds.

The Pirates have a good rotation, with Gerrit Cole, Jeff Locke, and Francisco Liriano, Wandy Rodriguez and Charlie Morton – but again, the Bucs don’t match the Cards or Reds.  It would help if prospect Jameson Taillon fully mastered his command and took a spot in the rotation, or if Edinson Volquez (a low risk signee) became the next Francisco Liriano (Comeback Player of the Year).  The bullpen is a true strength, led by closer Jason Grilli and set up man Mark Melancon, with support from Tony Watson, Justin Wilson and Vin Mazzaro. (Last season these five compiled a  2.25 ERA over 340 innings).

While the Pirates are not likely to match last season’s 94 wins, they should again be over .500 and in the Wild Card hunt.

Key Question – Has the so often up-and-down Liriano (16-8, 3.02) finally righted his ship, or is he due for another down year?  The Pirates need Liriano to repeat his 2013 performance (or at least come close) to contend and to take some of the load off the bullpen.

Brewers – Fourth Place

Offense should be the Brewers strength this season, led by Ryan Braun (returning from his Biogenesis-related suspension). In addition to getting Braun back, the Brewers signed free agents Mark Reynolds and Lyle Overbay to address a power shortage at first base and Matt Garza to bolster the rotation.  The Brewers also expect strong numbers from CF Carlos Gomez (who had a breakout .284-24-73, 40 steals campaign in 2013), LH Khris Davis, SS Jean Segura and 3b Aramis Ramirez. This is a potent line up, but the key is Braun. In his first six seasons, Braun averaged .313-34-107, 21 steals, and he’s anxious to re-prove and redeem himself.  Look for a big season.

The Brewers signed Matt Garza and Will Smith in the off–season to bolster the pitching staff, which still lacks a true ace and depends on a relatively inexperienced closer. However, there is reason for hope. The staff posted an excellent 3.31 over the second half of the season.  The rotation of Matt Garza, Kyle Lohse, Yovani Gallardo, Wily Peralta, and Marco Estrada could surprise.

The Brewers suffered through suspension (Braun) and injury (Braun, 2B Rickie Weeks, 3b Aramis Ramirez) last season. If healthy, they can improve significantly on their 74-88 record.  Catching any of top three (Cards, Red, Pirates), however, is not likely.

Key Question – Who replaces traded lead-off hitter Norichika Aoki? The leading candidate are SS Jean Segura (.294-12-49, with 44 steals) and 2B Scooter Gennet ( .324-6-21, 2 steals in 69 games after hitting .280 in 79 contests at AAA). It looks like Segura and Scooter in the one and two spots – setting the table for Braun and company.

Cubs – Fifth Place

The Cubs have rotation is headed by  Travis Wood, Jeff Samardzija and Edwin Jackson – who went a combined 25-43 in he Cubs 66-96 2013 season.  It wasn’t all their fault, however, as only the Marlins and White Sox scored fewer runs than the Cubbies last year (tough to be a baseball fan from Chicago).  Unfortunately, the offense looks pretty much the same for 2014.  The heart of the lineup will again be 1b Anthony Rizzo, SS Starlin Castro and RF Nate Schierholtz – and the first two need to rebound from sub-par seasons in 2014.

The pitching looks a little better than the offense, with Jeff Samardzija and Travis Wood showing the most promise (Wood rang up a 3.11 ERA in 200 innings and Samardzija fanned 214 batters in 213 2/3 innings). Edwin Jackson is holding the number-three spot, Jason Hammel number four and number five could be drawn from among Carlos Villaneuva, James McDonald, Chris Rusin and Tsuyoshi Wada.  BBRT expects we will see a lot of starters moving through the rotation.

The team did take steps to bolster a bullpen that had the second most blown saves (26) in 2013, signing Jose Veras, who saved 21 games for Detroit and Houston one year ago. Pedro Strop should be the primary setup man.

Final analysis – a long summer at Wrigley.

Key Question – How many of the Cubs’ young prospects will we see at  Wrigley this year?

 

NL WEST

Dodgers – First Place

The Dodgers starting rotation may not be five-deep in quality like the Cardinals, but LA’s top three – Clayton Kershaw,  Zack Grienke and Hyun-Jin Ryu – bring more to the mound than the Rebirds’ top of the rotation. The trio last season went a combined 45-21, with a 2.44 ERA (led by Kershaw’s 16-9, 1.83).  Overall, the Dodger rotation’s 3.13 ERA was the lowest in MLB. For 2014, the final two spots appear slated for Josh Beckett and newcomer Dan Haren (replacing a rehabbing Chad Billingsley). The bullpen is staffed with quality arms (and a host of former closers) led by closer Kenley Jansen (28 saves, 1.88 ERA in 2013), with support from Brian Wilson, Chris Perez, Brandon League and J.P. Howell.

The Dodgers’ lineup combines great defense with solid offense (which should be even better in 2014 with a full season of SS Hanley Ramirez (.345-20-57 in 86 games) and RF Yasiel Puig (.319-19-42 in 104 games). The outfield of Carl Crawford, Andre Ethier and Puig is one of the best offensively and defensively – and will only get stronger when Matt Kemp is ready gto rejoins the lineup.

Key Question – Can hard-hitting Cuban star Alex Guerrero make the transition shortstop to second base (or will Dee Gordon man the keystone)?  Guerrero could bring even more power to the LA lineup.

Giants – Second Place

Picking the Giants for second place reflects BBRT’s confidence that the once vaunted starting rotation (which finished 2013 with the third worst ERA in the NL) can regain its luster.  Madison Bumgarner led the way last year at 13-9, 2.77 ERA. If the Giants are to improved significantly on their 76-86 record of a year ago, Bumgarner will need some help from holdovers Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum and Ryan Vogelsong, who all had subpar years in 2013.  BBRT expects better things from Cain and Vogelson.  Cain (8-10, 4.00 in 2013) is only one season removed from a 16-5, 2,79 campaign, while Vogelsong (4-6, 5.73) was 14-9, 3.37 in 2012.  Two-time Cy Young Award winner Lincecum may be less of a rebound candidate after consecutive down years.  Rounding out the rotation is veteran Tim Hudson, who should be an asset on the mound and in the clubhouse.  The bullpen is adequate, with closing duties being handled by slider specialist Sergio Romo (38 saves in 2013).

The lineup is solid with MVP-candidate C Buster Posey (.294-15-72  in an off year) complemented by the likes of  3B Pablo Sandoval,  1B Brandon Belt, 2B Marco Scutaro (who needs to overcome back problems), CF Angel Pagan and RF Hunter Pence.  Six of there eight lineup regulars hit between .278 and .297 in 2013. The team finished fourth in the NL in batting last year, but tenth in runs – primarily due to a need for more power (the Giants finished ahead of only Miami in home runs.  To address that issue, they signed OF Micheal Morse, who hit 13 home runs in 88 games last year, but posed a 30+ HR season as recently as 2011.

Overall, the Giants have a steady – if not spectacular lineup – that should produce enough runs to grab second place and a Wild Card spot.

Key Question – It’s been the same for two seasons – What’s happened to Tim Lincecum and can he regain his All Star form?

Diamondbacks – Third Place

Arizona made a number of key acquisitions via both free agency and trade. They added another bat to the offense, acquiring OF/1BMark Trumbo (.234-34-100), added starter Bronson Arroyo (14-12, 3.79) to the rotation, and brought in closer Addison Reed (40 saves for the White Sox).  Trumbo may be the key to the offense, providing protection for 1B Paul Goldschmidt (an MVP candidate who went .302-36-125, with 15 steals a year ago). Additional offense will come from 3B Martin Prado, RF Gerardo Parra, 2B Aaron Hill and c Miguel Montero. BBRT also expects improvement from 26-year-old CF A.J. Pollock, who played good defense and put up a .269-8-38, 12 steals line in 2013.

The Diamondbacks will sorely miss starter Patrick Corbin (14-8, 3.41), lost for all or most of the season due to a partially torn ligament in his pitching elbow. With Corbin out, it’s critical Arroyo overcome back issues that emerged in spring. The Diamondbacks expect quality starts from Trevor Cahill (8-10, 3.99) and Wade Miley (10-10, 3.55); with the four and five spots in the rotation likely to Brandon McCarthy (5-11, 4.53) and Randall Delgado (5-7, 4.26).  Arroyo should be a calming influence  on  and mentor to –  the young staff.  Addison Reed is set as closer in a bullpen that should hold its own.

Arizona should be in the hunt for second place, but the loss of Corbin is a serious blow. If the Giants rotation falters again, however, the Diamondbacks are ready to move past San Francisco into a Wild Card slot,

Key Question – Can prospect Archie Bradley (12-5, 1.97 at AA last year) make the jump to the Diamondbacks at some time in the season, easing the rotation issues

Padres – Fourth Place

The Padres may surprise a few people this season, and BBRT would not be surprised to see them improve on 2013’s 76-86 record, but anything beyond fourth place is unlikely.

The Padres starting rotation will be led by Andrew Cashner, 10-9, 3.09 in his first full season as a starter. Number-two looks to be Ian Kennedy, picked up from the Diamondbacks at last season’s trade deadline.  After going 3-8, 5.23 in Arizona, Kennedy found pitcher-friendly Petco Park to his liking, going 4-2, 4,24 for the Padres – and he is only two seasons (2011) away from a 21-4 campaign. There is also potential in free-agent signee Josh Johnson (2-8, 6.20 in an jnjury-plagued 2013 season in Toronto), but he’s already starting 2014 on the Disabled List.  Veteran Eric Stults, 11-13, 3.93 last season and Tyson Ross are expected to round out a rotation that has the potential to be fairly good (particularly at home). Closing duties will be handled by Huston Street (33 saves, 2.70 in 2013). Street has been on the DL three times in the last two seasons, so the Padres added Joaquion Benoit (who saved 24 games for the Tigers last season) as a set-up man and closer “insurance.”

While the pitching has the potential to be competitive – if the starters can avoid injury – the offense needs work.  The Padres finished 12^th in the NL in runs scored and did not make any significant moves to improve. What they need most in a rebound from 3B Chase Headley, who went from .286-31-115 in 2012 to .250-13-50 in an injury-marred (thumb and knee) in 2013. The Padres offense really will go only as far as Headley’s bat can take them. Most of Headley’s offensive help will come from 2b Jedd Gyorko (23 HRs in 2013), Carlos Quentin (.275-13 HRs), CF Will Venable (22 HRs/22 SBs) and SS Everath Cabrera (.283, 37 steals – despite a 50-game suspension).

Rockies – Fifth Place

The Rockies went shopping in the offseason.  They picked up free agent LaTroy Hawkins to close games and free agent/former AL MVP Justin Morneau to handle first base. Both are former Twins and the Rockies hope they like Colorado’s mountain air as much as another former Twin, RF Micheal Cuddyer, last year’s NL batting champ (.331 – 56 points higher than his career average).  Also acquired, through trades, were starting pitchers Brett Anderson and Jordan Lyles, reliever Franklin Morales and OF Drew Stubbs. If any of these are going to make a major impact, Morneau and Hawkins are the most likely suspects.

Pitching will again be in short supply in Colorado (Colorado starters  had the NL’s worst ERA, 4.57, in 2013). Still, the Rockie’s have a three starters that put up good numbers last season: Jorge De La Rose (16-6, 3.49), Jhoulys Chacin (14-10, 3.48)  and Tyler Chatwood (8-5, 3.14). All three, like newcomer Anderson, have injuries in their history.  If they stay healthy, however, the Rockies have a chance to improve on last seasons 80-82 record. The bullpen could be interesting. First, in 2013, not to be outdone by the starters, they ran up the N L’s nighest bullpen ERA (4.23) – in great part due to the loss of closer Rafeal Betancourt (who will miss all of 2014 after Tommy John surgery), which changed roles across the pen. This year, the closing duties fall to 41-year-old LaTroy Hawkins. If the ageless one is up to the task, the bullpen may stabilize.  If not, it could be a long year in the late innings.

The offense is fairly good, led by CF Carlos Gonzalez (.302-26-70), SS Troy Tulowitzki (.312-25-82), C  Wilin Rosario (.292-21-79) and RF Cuddyer’s (.331-20-85). Keep in mind,through, they get half their at bats in Colorado’s rarified air.

If key members of the offense avoid injury and De La Rosa, Chacin and Chatwood can repeat last year’s performance, the Rockies could move over .500 and into fourth place (I don’t see them catching the Dodgers, Giants or Diamondbacks).  BBRT think that too much has to go right for that to happen.

Key Question – Will Colorado’s mountain air and the chance to reunite with former teammate Micheal Cuddyer revitalize 2006 AL MVP and four-time All Star Justin Morneau’s bat?

Feel free to toss in your questions, opinions, projections and predictions in the comments section.

 

I tweet baseball @DavidBBRT