Opening Day (as I begin putting together this post) is upon us (as you read this, it will be behind us). As has been usual in recent seasons, the day is marked by change in MLB. This year it’s shift-restricting regulations, a strictly enforced time clock, limits on pickoff attempts, a revamped schedule (each team will face all 29 other MLB teams at some point in the schedule, which means 24 fewer in-division games) and permanency for the extra-inning “ghost” runner. As baseball fans we will, of course, learn to live with these changes. (Well, most of them anyway. I remain steadfast in refusing to recognize ghost runners on my scorecard.)
In this post, Baseball Roundtable will look at a different kind of annual change. The change we see in each season’s Opening Day lineups. Consider. Of the 299 players who found themselves in the 2022 Opening Day lineups (Shohei Ohtani is the reason the total is one short of ten per team), just 183 (61%) found themselves among the 2023 Opening Day starters. Further, less than half (135/45 percent) of 2023 Opening Day starters found themselves on the field to start Opening Day for the same team they “opened” for in 2022.
The highest number of repeat Opening Day starters was six – by the Yankees, Rays, Orioles, Guardians, Tigers, Astros, Mariners, Braves, Mets, Marlins and Giants. The fewest number of repeat Opening Day starters was two – Athletics, Pirates, Reds and Diamondbacks.
The Brewers had the highest number of 2022 Opening Day starters appearing in the Opening Day lineups of a new teams in 2023 at five: 2B Kolten Wong (Mariners); DH Andrew McCutchen (Pirates); RF Hunter Renfroe (Angels); C Omar Narvaez (Mets); 3B Jace Peterson (Athletics). The Cardinals, Rockies and Astros had zero 2022 Opening Day starters appearing in another teams 2022 Opening Day lineup.
So, how does all this lineup change come about? Several ways:
- Trades: Think the Twins/Marlins trade that made former-Twin and AL batting champ Luis Arreaz (who started Opening Day 2022 for the Twins) the first player to come to the plate for the Marlins this season and made former-Marlin Pablo Lopez the first pitcher to take the mound for the Twins in the 2023 campaign.
- Injuries: Think players stepping in for Bryce Harper and Rhys Hoskins of the Phillies or Jose Altuve of the Astros (all of whom were Opening Day 2022 starters).
- Free Agent signings: Think Jose Abreu , who started at 1B for the White Sox on Opening Day 2022 and at 1B for the Astros this Opening Day – or Trea Turner, who started at SS for the Dodgers on Opening Day 2022 and at the same spot for the Phillies this Opening Day.
- Players getting their first Opening Day start: Think players like Yankees’ SS Anthony Volpe and Cardinals LF Jordan Walker,whose first Opening Day starts were also their MLB debuts.
In the remainder of this post, Baseball Roundtable will take a look at the 2023 and 2022 lineups, in the order I predict the teams will finish. And, for those who are a little more nostalgic, I’ll toss in a look at team lineups from five and ten years ago.
Before we get started, for Roundtable readers from warmer climates, here’s ho we approach the home opener in Minnesota (at least this season).
Now for those lineups (and predictions).
–NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST–
First Place … Atlanta Braves
Second … New York Mets
Third – Phillies
Fourth … Marlins
Fifth … Nationals
–NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL–
First Place … Cardinals
Second – Brewers
Third … Cubs
Fourth …. Pirates
Fifth … Reds
–NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST–
First Place… Padres
Second … Dodgers
Third … Diamondbacks
Fourth … Giants
–AMERICAN LEAGUE EAST–
First Place …. Yankees
Second … Blue Jays
Third … Rays
Fourth … Orioles
Fifth … Red Sox
AMERICAN LEAGUE CENTRAL
First Place … Twins
Second … Guardians
Third … White Sox
Fourth … Royals
Fifth … Tigers
–AMERICAN LEAGUE WEST–
First Place… Astros
Second … Mariners
Third … Angels
Fourth … Rangers
Fifth … Athletics
Primary Resource: Baseball-Reference.com
Coming Soon: The Roundtable picks one player from each team for its 2023 “One to Watch List.”
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