David “Big Papi” Ortiz – top vote getter in Baseball Roundtable’s (unofficial) fan/reader balloting.
Photo by Keith Allison
We’re just nine days away from the official announcement of whom the Baseball Writers Association of American (BBWAA) voted (or did not vote) into the Hall of Fame for 2022. To help you pass the time (and maybe spur a discussion or two) between now and January 25, I’ll use this post to present the results of Baseball Roundtable’s (unofficial ) Hall of Fame fan/reader voting.
The 140 fans who voted indicated they are not ready to “forgive and forget” when it comes to the PED controversy. Roundtable readers tossed a shutout in the unofficial Hall of Fame balloting, with David Ortiz leading all nominees with 65 percent of the votes – well short of the 75 percent needed for induction. Only four players, in fact, received at least 50 percent of the vote: Ortiz, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens and Todd Helton. Rounding out the top ten were Jeff Kent, Billy Wagner, Alex Rodriguez, Curt Schilling, Scott Rolen and Gary Sheffield (there is a full chart later in the post).
Players with 50 percent of higher support:
- David Ortiz… 65.0 percent
- Barry Bonds …. 60.7
- Roger Clemens … 59.3
- Todd Helton … 51.4
By comparison, with 42. 9 percent of the official ballots announced/tracked (as of January 15), the 2022 Baseball Hall of Fame Vote Tracker also has Ortiz (83.7 percent), Bonds (77.7) and Clemens (76.5) as its top three vote getters on BBWAA ballots.
Baseball Hall of Fame Vote Tracker
To follow the announced ballots, go the www.bbhoftracker.com … The tracker team does a great job. They provide not only publicly released (by voters) vote totals, but the votes cast on individual ballots (when the voter has released his or her name) and stats on such measures as votes gained or lost to date among returning voters and support among first-time voters.
It would appear that Ortiz has the best chance of election, with a nice cushion (but with close to 60 percent of the ballots untracked). In regard to Bonds and Clemens, past history (and conventional wisdom) shows vote percentages tend to drop off as more votes become public. While Ortiz has built a nice cushion, Bonds and Clemens seem likely to again end up short.
For a look at Baseball Roundtable’s early predictions for 2022 voting and bios of the candidates, click here.
Overall, Baseball Roundtable readers spread their votes up and down the unofficial fan ballot, with just one candidate – Jonathon Papelbon – failing to receive at least five percent of the vote (the percentage needed to stay on the ballot for 2023’s official voting). Looking at the BBWAA votes tracked thus far, it appears about a dozen players will drop off the official ballot.
BASEBALL ROUNDTABLE (unofficial) 2022 FAN HALL OF FAME BALLOT RESULTS
Roger Clemens was the biggest gainer among returnees, going in from 23.7 percent in last year’s fan ballot to 59.3 percent this year. That, however, is an anomaly – as Clemens’ fn ballot totals have been mirroring Bonds’ (excluding last year’s unexplained drop). In 2018, Bonds was at 46.7 percent in the fan ballot to Clemens’ 49.0. In 2019, it was Bonds 43.2 and Clemens 44.8. In 2020, the pair was again close 44.6 percent for Bonds and 46.9 percent for Clemens.
Outside of Clemens, the biggest gainers on the 2022 fan ballot were Bonds (+16.8 percentage points) and Many Ramirez (+14.7). The biggest decline in the fan ballot went to Omar Vizquel, who went from 66.7 percent last year (another anomaly) to 30.0 percent this year) and Bobby Abreu, who dropped from 37.7 percent to 12.9 percent.
A few other observations:
- Only three of the first-time candidates received more than 10 percent support among readers: David Ortiz …. 65 percent; Alex Rodriguez … 38.6 percent; and Ryan Howard …. 13.6 percent.
- Jeff Kent (at 47.1 percent among readers) continued to poll better among fans than he has on the BBWAA ballot. In previous BBWAA Ballots Kent’s high-water mark is 32.4 percent. Among the others who have consistently performed better in the Roundtables fan ballot than in BBWAA voting are Billy Wagner and Andy Pettitte.
When asked which players not on the ballot belong in the Hall of Famer readers contributed 38 different names, led by Joe Jackson and Pete Rose with eight mentions each. Notably, five of the 21 players with more than one mention were selected for 2022 induction by the Era Committees.
Primary Resources: Baseball-reference; bbhoftracker.com
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