The season is almost upon us and it’s time for some BBRT predictions. Things, of course, can change – particularly since there are still some “difference makers” out there on the free-agent market (Like Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel). Over the coming week, BBRT will look at each MLB Division, and then wrap up with predictions for the major awards (ROY, CYA, MVP).
We’ll start with the National League – it is the “Senior Circuit” after all – and move from East to West. After each divisional predicted order of finish – for those who want more detail or justification – I’ll move on to a team-by-team evaluation. Keep in mind, these are just BBRT’s opinions and conjecture – not the result of any inside insight or info.
For the NL Central, click here.
For the NL West, click here.
For the AL East, click here.
For the AL Central, click here.
For the AL West, click here.
For the major awards, click here.
NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST
Nationals (Division Champions)
Phillies (Wild Card)
Mets
Braves
Marlins
A rotation headed by Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and newcomer Patrick Corbin – plus a deep lineup (even without Bryce Harper) should bring Washington the East Division crown. The Phillies – after adding Bryce Harper, Jean Segura, Andrew McCutchen and J.T. Realmuto – signaled they are serious about contending. And, they will. Their pitching may fall just a bit short of the Nationals, but they do have some solid young arms. If Philadelphia goes out and gets Dallas Keuchel, this could be a real dog fight. The Mets have a solid pitching staff (led by Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Zack Wheeler and free-agent signee closer Edwin Diaz). I just don’t think they added enough offense to catch the Nationals or Phillies. The Braves have a solid offense, but need more pitching (particularly with Mike Foltynewicz’ health concerns). The Marlins just don’t have the horses for this race.
COME BACK TOMORROW – FOR THE NL CENTRAL.
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NATIONALS – First Place
Max Scherzer again leads the Nationals’ staff.
Photo by Keith Allison 
The Nationals, who underachieved (82-80) in 2018, and then lost six-time All Star Bryce Harper (.249-34-100) to free agency, appear well-positioned to reclaim the top spot in the NL East – thanks, in most part, to the strength of their pitching.
It all starts with a rotation with a penchant for missing bats. Three-time Cy Young Award winner Max Scherzer last season went 18-7, 2.53 – and fanned 300 hitters in 220 2/3 inning (12.2 K’s per nine). Next up is Stephen Strasburg (10-7, 3.74), who fanned 156 in 130 innings (10.8 K’s per nine). New to the rotation is southpaw free-agent (D-backs) and 2018 All Star Patrick Corbin, who won 11 (versus seven losses), put up a 3.15 ERA and whiffed 246 batters in 200 innings. The rotation is rounded out by free-agent signee (Braves) Anibal Sanchez (7-6, 2.83), who fell just two strikeouts short of nine-per–nine (135 K’s in 136 2/3 innings) and, possibly, Joe Ross, who is coming back after 2017 Tommy John Surgery.
The bullpen is led by lefty closer Sean Doolittle (3-3, 1.60, with 25 saves last season). How reliable is the Nationals’ ninth-inning guy? In the past two seasons, Doolittle is 49-for-52 in save opportunities. Other pen notables include free-agent signee Troy Rosenthal, who has a 99-mph fastball and 121 saves on his resume, but missed the 2018 season recovering from Tommy John surgery; Justin Miller (7-1, 3.61 in 51 games); Matt Grace (1-1, 2.87 in 56 games); Koda Glover; and Kyle Barraclough. Overall, expect this group to be handed plenty of leads to protect.
There are a number of new faces in what looks to be a deep lineup. This is particularly true “up the middle.” At catcher, the Nats picked up 2018 AL All Star Yan Gomes from the Indians (trade) and signed free agent (Braves) Kurt Suzuki. The stat lines for these two are .266-16-48 (Gomes) and .271-12-50 (Suzuki). Last season, the Nationals got a .214 average with 12 home runs and 60 RBI out of their catching corps. At the keystone sack, free-agent signee (Dodgers) Brian Dozier takes over. While Dozier went just .215-21-72 in 2018, the one-time Gold Glover has topped 20 home runs in five straight seasons, with a high of 42 in 2016. He played much of 2017 with a troubling bone bruise (knee) and looks ready to bounce back. In center field there is top prospect 21-year-old Victor Robles, a speedy plus-defender, who hit .288-3-10 in 21 games after a September call up (and is considered a Rookie of the Year candidate by many). Joining Robles in the outfield will be 20-year-old Juan Soto. The left-handed swinger hit .292, with 22 long balls and 70 RBI in 116 games in his rookie season. Not bad for a teenager. The final garden spot will go to Adam Eaton, who went .301-5-33, with nine steals in 95 games a year ago.
Adding to the offensive fire power will be 3B Anthony Rendon (.308-24-92, with an NL-leading 44 doubles) and classic table-setter SS Trea Turner (.271-19-73, with a league-topping 43 steals). This is a pair of proven run producers – and Rendon could easily be in the MVP picture. The Nationals are hoping veteran 1B Ryan Zimmerman can rebound from 2018 health issues (.264-13-51 in 85 games in 2018, after .303-36-108 in 2017). If the 34-year-old can’t go every day, look for Matt Adams (.239-21-57 in 121 games) to pick up the slack.
Overall, the Nationals’ power-pitching should carry them back to the top of the NL East – and there is plenty of offensive potential to back that up (even without Bryce Harper).
KEY OFF-SEASON MOVE
Some would say letting Bryce Harper leave via free agency was the most significant off-season move by the Nationals. BBRT is going with the signing of number-three starter Patrick Corbin. Corbin was 11-7, 2.15 with the Diamondbacks a year ago. He lengthens the top-end of the Nationals’ rotation.
PLAYER TO WATCH
BBRT will be watching CF Victor Robles. The 21-year-old went .276-2-14, with 19 steals in three minor league stops last season – before going .288-3-10 in 21 September games for the Nationals. No question about his defensive skills, but it will be interesting to see how his bat fares in a full MLB season.
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PHILLIES – Second Place
Bryce Harper – Big score for the Phillies.
Bryce Harper (free agent), Jean Segura (trade), Andrew McCutchen (free agent), J.T. Realmuto (trade). This off season, the Phillies proved they were serious about winning. Of course, it all centers on Harper, who will take over right field. He hit only .249 a year ago (after .319 in 2017), but the six-time All Star and 2015 NL MVP popped 34 home runs, scored 103 times and drove in 100 tallies. He also walked a league-leading 130 times – turning that .249 average into a .393 on-base percentage. Harper will be joined in the outfield by newcomer (LF) McCutchen – who should improve the garden defense. The 2013 NL MVP doesn’t carry the bat he once did, but still brings 20-homer pop (.255-20-65 a year ago). CF looks to belong to a combination of Odubel Herrera and Roman Quinn; with Herrera providing the better offense (.255-22-71) and Quinn superior on defense.
J.T. Realmuto is another key addition. The 2018 All Star (.277-21-74), acquired in a trade with the Marlins, solidifies the backstop position. The Phillies have plenty of additional punch with 25-year-old 1B Rhys Hoskins (.246-34-96) still having plenty of upside and Maikel Franco (.270-22-68) at the other corner. Newcomer Jean Segura will handle shortstop and set the table for the boppers (.304 with ten homers and 20 steals in 2018). Look for Cesar Hernandez at the keystone sack (.253-15-60, with 19 steals).
The Phillies have a lineup that can challenge the Nationals, but they may fall a bit short on the mound. A year ago, the Phillies’ 4.14 ERA was 11th in the NL and they didn’t do much to upgrade the staff.
WHY THE 2018 PHILLIES PHADED?
The Phillies’ pitching staff put up a 3.85 earned run average before the All Star break (and the team was 11 games over .500) and then slumped to 4.56 and 13 games under .500 post-break. The drop off was particularly significant in the back end of the rotation: Nick Pivetta went from a 4.58 ERA in the first half to 5.05 in the second half; Vince Velasquez went from 4.39 to 5.68; and Zach Elfin from 3.15 to 5.76. Keep an eye on how the staff holds up in the second half of this season.
At the top of the all-righty rotation will be Aaron Nola – at 25-years-old a true ace (17-6, 2.37, with 224 K’s in 212 1/3 innings). The number-two slot goes to veteran Jake Arrietta (10-11, 3.96). These two will be followed by Nick Pivetta (7-14, 4.77), Vince Velasquez (9-12, 4.85) and Zach Elfin (11-8, 4.36). A number of analysts have pointed to the potential of the arms at the back end of the rotation, I just don’t see enough there to close the gap on the Nationals. Then again, Dallas Keuchel is still out there.
Nine different relievers notched saves for the Phillies a year ago. That worries me (I prefer more defined roles in the pen). Still, there is talent and I expect free-agent (Yankees) signee David Robertson (8-3, 3.23 with five saves) and returnees Seranthony Dominguez (2.95 with 16 saves) and Hector Neris (5.10 with 11 saves) to all be asked to record “big outs.” And, of course, as I write this, Craig Kimbrel is still out there. (Although I think the Phillies may be done spending for this season.)
Overall, the Phillies should score more and win more, but BBRT is not sure they have the pitching to keep pace with the Nationals.
KEY OFF-SEASON MOVE
This one’s easy – Bryce Harper (six-time All Star and 2015 NL MVP) was the prize.
PLAYER TO WATCH
Keep an eye on Nick Pivetta. The Phillies need him to deliver on his potential – a mid- to upper-90’s fast ball and a crisp curve. He has shown signs, notching 188 strikeouts in 164 innings last season. If he can improve on his 7-14, 4.77 mark, the Phillies could move a bit closer to the Nationals.
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METS – Third Place (tie)
I’ve got the Mets and Braves pretty much finishing in a dead heat for third place – the Braves counting on their run producers and the Mets on their run prevention.
Jacob deGrom … could use a little more run support.
For the Mets, the key is pitching and it starts with 2018 NL Cy Young Award winner Jacob deGrom, who put up an MLB-best 1.70 earned run average and fanned 269 batters in 217 innings. How important is it for the Mets to improve their offense (more on this later)? Despite those numbers, deGrom won only ten games (nine losses) in 32 starts. The number-two spot in the rotation goes to Noah Syndergaard. The 6’6” righty went 13-3, 3.03 in 2018, with 155 strikeouts in 154 1 /3 innings. And there is plenty more behind the front two. Zack Wheeler went 12-7, 3.31 in 29 starts. He went 9-1, with a 1.68 ERA after the All Star break and seems poised for an even better season in 2018. Southpaws Steven Matz and Jason Vargas, who both have the potential to turn in solid seasons, round out the starting five. Matz was 5-11, 3.97 a year ago and (like deGrom) deserved much better. Vargas was 7-9, 5.77 for the Met last season, but won 18 games for the Royals.
In games in which he gave up two or fewer earned runs, Steven Matz won three, lost four and had eight no decisions.
If you think the starting rotation looks good, consider what the Mets did to bolster the bullpen in the off-season. They signed free-agent closer Edwin Diaz, who posted 57 saves and a 1.96 ERA for the Diamondbacks (124 whiffs in just 73 1/3 innings). They also brought back Jeurys Familia – who started 2018 as the Mets closer and had 17 saves before being traded to Oakland in July. How much does he bring back to the Mets? Familia had 51 saves as recently as 2016. Other key bullpen arms will be Robert Gsellman (6-3, 4.28 with 13 saves in 68 appearances) and Seth Lugo (3-4, 2.66 in 54 games). When the Mets hold the lead after six innings, they should be in good shape to pick up the win.
DON’T TAKE OFFENSE … BUT THESE NUMBERS ILLUSTRATE THE PROBLEM
In 2018, the Mets scored the fourth-fewest runs in the National League – and had no batters reach 150 hits, 30-home runs, 80 runs scored nor 90-RBI. The highest batting average among Mets to qualify for the batting title was Brandon Nimmo’s .263.
The Mets’ Achilles heel last season was offense. Surgeries on both heels cost them their most proven run producer – Yeonis Cespedes – most of last season; and his status for 2019 is not clear. The Mets took steps to address that issue, signing free agents Robinson Cano (Mariners), Wilson Ramos (Phillies) and Jed Lowrie (A’s). Cano, of course, is coming off an 80-game suspension, but is a proven performer. He hit .303, with ten home runs and 50 RBI in just 80 games a year ago – and has seven All Star selections, eight 20+ home run seasons and four 100-RBI campaigns on his resume. He should help offset the time Cespedes misses. Ramos gives the Mets the reliable everyday catcher they have been seeking. The 2018 All Star hit .306 with 15 home runs and 70 RBI in 111 games last season. Lowrie may be the choice at 3B after a .267-23-99 seasons with the A’s. Amed Rosario (.256-9-51, with 24 steals) will be back at short. Todd Frazier (.213-18-59) and Jeff McNeil (.329-3-19 in 63 games) will also see some infield playing time. .
Looking to the outfield, LF Michael Conforto (.243-28-82) will provide some middle of the lineup pop, as should anticipated 1B Peter Alonso. In 2018, the 23-year-old prospect hit .285-36-119 in 132 games at Double A and Triple A. Brandon Nimmo (.263-17-47) should hold down RF and the lead off spot. Others in the OF mix are 2014 Gold Glover Juan Lagares, Rajai Davis and Carlos Gomez.
The Mets clearly have the pitching to contend. The offense remains the question mark.
KEY OFF-SEASON MOVE
Hard to go wrong picking a guy who saved 57 games in 61 opportunities, put up a 1.96 earned run average and fanned 15.2 batters per nine. The Mets’ most significant move had to be signing Edwin Diaz.
PLAYER TO WATCH
BBRT will be watching the progress of Peter Alonso – .285-26-119 in 132 minor league games last season; and a .290 average with 59 home runs over three minor league seasons (255 games). This 24-year-old has the potential to reshape the Mets’ lineup.
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BRAVES – Third Place (tie)
The young Braves surprised a lot people by taking the NL East title one year ago. Youth again will be served in Atlanta – and generate plenty of offense. I’m just not sure the pitching will be strong enough to repeat.
Freddie Freeman , steady power source. Photo by dougandme
The Braves have a solid nucleus of young players starting with 21-year-old LF Ronald Acuna, Jr. (2019 NL Rookie of the Year), who put up a .293-26-64, 16 SB season, and 22-year-old 2B Ozzie Albies, who went .261-24-72 with 14 steals. OF Ender Inciarte (just 28 and entering his sixth major league season) won his third consecutive Gold Glove in center and put up a .265-10-61, 28-steal stat line. SS Dansby Swanson (the number-one draft pick in 2015) continues to improve his defense and launched 14 long balls last season. With a bit more plate discipline (44 walks and 122 whiffs a year ago), he could add some spark to the lineup.
The Braves balance this youth with solid and stable veterans. Bringing back veteran OF Nick Markakis (35-years-old and entering his 14th MLB season) was a plus. Markakis hit .297-14-93 last season and picked up his third Gold Glove. In 13 MLB campaigns, he’s never played less than 147 games, has hit .290 or better eight times and reached double-digit home runs in all but two seasons. He will continue as a steadying influence on the youngsters in the lineup. Left-handed hitting veteran Freddie Freeman (.309-23-98) will provide plenty of offense at first base and another veteran, free-agent signee Josh Donaldson, will play at the opposite corner. Donaldson had a tough 2018 (shoulder, calf and arm issues) – playing in only 52 games (Indians/Blue Jays), but he is a three-time All Star, who has topped 30 home runs in three of the past four seasons. Tyler Flowers and free-agent signee Brian McCann will handle the catching.
The Braves also boast an all under-30 rotation led by righty Mike Foltynewicz (13-10, 2.85) and southpaw Sean Newcomb (12-9, 3.90). However, late in Spring Training the Braves announced that “Folty” may not be ready by Opening Day. Ouch. Among the Braves other projected starters are the reliable Julio Teheran (9-9, 3.94 a year ago) and Kevin Gausman (5-3, 2.87 in ten starts for the Braves, after coming over from the Orioles, where he was 5-8, 4.43). Hoping to round out the rotation is 23-year-old right-hander Touki Toussaint (gotta love that name), who came up in August last season and went 2-1, 4.04 in seven games – five starts. Toussaint showed swing-and-miss stuff, fanning 66 in 65 innings for the Braves. (He went 9-6, 2.38 at Double and Triple-A last season – with 163 K’s in 136 1/3 innings.) The Braves lack a proven ace, but – given their lineup and a bullpen that includes closer Aroldys Vizcaino (2-5, 3.11 with 22 saves), A.J. Minter (3.23 in 65 games), Darren O’Day (3.60 in 20 games), Dan Winkler (3.43 in in 69 games) and Jonny Venters (3.61 in 50 games for Blue Jays and Braves) – they should be competitive. Still, they won’t surprise as many people this year – and both the Nationals and Phillies look to be in better position to make the post season.
KEY OFF-SEASON MOVE
The Braves were relatively quiet this off season, but picking up Josh Donaldson to handle the hot corner could prove to be a real plus. Donaldson is coming off a difficult season, with shoulder and calf injuries limiting him to 52 games and a .246-8-23 line. Over the previous three campaigns, he hit .285, with 111 home runs. Donaldson’s on a one-year contract, so he has plenty of incentive to bounce back. That potential and his veteran presence should bolster this young Atlanta squad.
PLAYER TO WATCH
BBRT is going with RHP Touki Toussaint here. Toussaint, with a 98-mph fastball and a plus curve, could surprise a lot of hitters. The key will be command. He walked 21 batters in 29 MLB innings last season (just 53 in 136 minor league frames, however). Side note: The Braves face a similar situation with Sean Newcomb, who went 12-9, 3.90 a year ago – but walked 81 batters in 164 innings. He also fanned 160. In two MLB seasons, Newcomb has walked 138 batters in 264 innings – 4.7 walks per nine frames. If he can improve his command of the strike zone, Newcomb could be a solid number-two in the rotation.
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MARLINS – Fifth Place
The Marlins had one All Star in 2018 – catcher J.T. Realmuto – and he’s now a Phillie. The Fish are rebuilding – and they still have a ways to go (they did make some interesting splashes in the international talent pool). This will be another long year in Miami.
They did add a couple of veteran free agents in OF Curtis Granderson and infielder Neil Walker (who last year spent time at 1B, 2B, 3B, RF and LF for the Yankees). Walker, 33-years-old, had a tough year in New York (.219-11-46 in 113 games), but has shown better in the past and does give the Marlins lineup flexibility. Granderson, at 38-years-old, is showing some signs of injury issues. In 2018, he went .242-13-38 in 123 games. Both should see notable playing time (Walker probably at both corner infield spots), as the Marlins juggle the lineup.
In 2018, the Marlins scored the fewest runs in the National League (589) and gave up the second-most tallies (809) – for the NL’s worst run differential at minus-220.
Starlin the Marlin. Photo by dougandme
Others likely to see plenty of playing time include 2B Starlin Castro (.278-12-54), who still has plenty of life in his bat; SS J.T. Riddle (.231-9-36), a plus defender, who may split time with Miguel Rojas (.252-11-53); 3B Brian Anderson (.273-11-65), who could also see time in the OF if 3B Martin Prado (.244 in 54 games) is healthy; and outfielders Lewis Brinson, Austin Dean and Peter O’Brien (who all still have to prove themselves at the MLB level). Catcher looks to go to newcomer Jorge Alfaro, who went .262-10-37 in 108 games for the Phillies. (Note: Alfaro suffered a knee injury in Spring Training and may not be ready for Opening Day.)
There is a little some potential on the mound – particularly among the starters, where 27-year-old Jose Urena went 9-12, 3.98 (following a 14-7, 3.82 season in 2017) and 23-year-old Sandy Alcantara showed a high-90’s heater in a September call up (2-3, 3.44 with 30 strikeouts in 34 innings). Others looking for a spot in the rotation include: Wei-Yin Chen (6-12, 4.79); Trevor Richards (4-9, 4.42); Dan Straily (5-6, 4.12); Pablo Lopez (2-4, 4.14); and Caleb Smith (5-6, 4.19). It should be an interesting competition. I personally would really be working with Alcantara on consistency in the strike zone.
CAN’T I JUST STAY HOME?
Southpaw Wei-Yin Chen apparently likes home cooking. In 13 home starts last season, he went 5-3, with a 1.62 earned run average, 22 walks and 74 strikeouts in 78 innings. In an equal number of road starts, he lasted 22 2/3 fewer innings and went 1-9, 9.27, with 37 strikeouts and 25 walks.
The bullpen has strike-zone problems of its own. Miami relievers walked more batters than any other NL bullpen staff in 2018. Closer Drew Steckenrider went 4-4, 3.90 in 2018 (five saves). He showed swing-and-miss stuff (74 strikeouts in 64 2/3 innings), but his 27 walls created late-inning tension. Southpaw Adam Conley (3-4, 4.09), a converted starter, should get some meaningful innings. There are also Tayron Guerrero (1-3, 5.43, with 68 whiffs and 30 walks in 58 innings) and Nick Wittgren (2-1, 2.94 in 32 appearances.)
KEY OFF-SEASON MOVE
Picking up Neil Walker not only added some much-needed pop to the lineup (he has reached double-digits in home runs in nine straight seasons), but his versatility gives the Marlins some lineup flexibility (as they, perhaps, work to look at some young talent). It would not surprise BBRT to see Walker return to a .250-15-60 level season.
PLAYER TO WATCH
I’d keep an eye on right-hander Sandy Alcantara, whose fastball has reached triple digits on occasion (and is regularly in the high-90’s). He was 6-3, 3.90 in two minor league stops last season – before his 2-3, 3.44 with the Marlins. If he can master his command (at the MLB level last season, he fanned 30 in 34 innings, but also walked 23), he could put some victories up on the board.
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For Day Two – NL Central … Click Here.
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