Baseball Roundtable

Spring Training grows ever closer and BBRT continues to identify players to watch in the weeks and months ahead.  We’ve already looked at some of MLB’s to prospects – click here for that post.  Now, it’s time to examine some potential candidates for Comeback Player of the Year.  I’ve chosen to highlight one player in each division, based on a combination of how important a rebound by each player could be to his team and how well-positioned each player appears to be to achieve that level of “comeback.”

NATIONAL LEAGUE

East

Anthony Rendon, 3B. Washington Nationals

Anthony Rendon hit his stride with the Nationals in 2014. That season, Rendon played in 153 games, hitting .287, with 21 home runs, 83 RBI, 17 stolen bases (in 20 attempts) and a league-leading 111 runs scored. This performance earned Rendon a fifth-place finish in the MVP balloting.  Big things were expected from Rendon as the Nationals went into the 2015 season favored to take the NL East title.

Unfortunately, Rendon suffered knee, quad and oblique injuries – and played in just 80 games (often at less than 100 percent). His final numbers were .264-5-25. Rendon is just 26-years-old, so the Nationals are expecting a strong comeback.  They need his right-handed bat in the lineup if they are going to unseat the Mets atop the East Division. With Bryce Harper likely to follow Rendon in the Nats’ lineup, a solid season seems very likely.

Central

Adam Wainwright. RHP, Saint Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals, having lost starting pitchers John Lackey (free agency, Mets) and Lance Lynn (Tommy John surgery), need Adam Wainwright to make a full recovery from last April’s Achilles Tendon tear and resume his role at the top of the rotation. (Note: Lackey and Lynn represented a combined 25 wins, 64 starts and 393 innings pitched.) Fortunately, Wainwright looks like a solid candidate for the Comeback Player of the Year Award.

Wainwright is 34-year-old, which raises some flags, but the fact that Wainwright came back early and strong indicates he should return to form in 2016.  Last season, Wainwright returned to the mound for three regular-season relief appearances (late September/early October) and three post-season relief appearances. In those outings, he went 8 1/3 innings, giving up just five hits and two earned runs, while fanning eight. A healthy Wainwright should be a Cy Young Award candidate.  In 2013-14 he finished second and third in the CYA balloting, while running up a combined 39-18 record, with a 2.67 ERA and 398 strikeouts in 468 2/3 innings.

West

Hunter Pence, RF, San Francisco Giants

Going into 2015 Spring Training, Hunter Pence was among the most durable players in the major leagues – having led the NL in games played (162) in 2013 and 2014, and having played in at least 154 games in each of the seven previous seasons. In 2014, he put up a .277-20-74 line, with 13 steals and 106 runs scored. Pence suffered a broken arm in Spring Training (hit by pitch) and, after his return from that setback, suffered wrist injury and oblique injuries.  Even playing through pain, Pence got in only 52 games, going .275-9-40, with four steals.

While not the kind of player who can carry a team on his own, Pence is a solid performer and professional hitter (three-time All Star) whose presence in the middle of the lineup will be needed if the Giants are to compete with the Dodgers and Diamondbacks in the NL West. Hunter will turn 33 shortly after the season opens and – given his history – a comeback season should be no problem.

A few others who may be in the NL Comeback Player mix: Freddie Freeman, 1B, Braves; Jose Fernandez, RHP, Marlins; Yasiel Puig, RF, Dodgers.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

East

Marcus Stroman, RHP. Toronto Blue Jays

Marcus Stroman burst onto the MLB scene in 2014, making his first appearance (in relief) in early May.  By season’s end, he had made 26 appearances (20 starts), going 11-6, 3.65 with 111 K’s in 130 2/3 innings.  The young Blue Jay (23-years-old when he made his MLB debut) may not be large in stature (5’8”, 180-lbs.), but he stood tall on the mound.

The 2015 season seemed to hold great promise, but Stroman’s progress was quickly derailed. A Spring Training knee injury was projected to put him out for the season. Stroman, however, surprised the Jays and was back on the mound in mid-September, going 4-0, 1.67 down the stretch and – perhaps more important – pitching 27 innings in four starts. Stroman followed up by going 1-0, 4.19 in three post-season starts.

With southpaw ace David Price now gone (free agency, Red Sox), the Blue Jays need Stroman to step into the number-one rotation slot.  BBRT expects he will do just fine in that role. Since he is coming off an injury-shortened year, he qualifies as a Comeback Player of the Year candidate.

Note: If you don’t think Stroman was “down” enough to make an award-winning comeback, a solid second choice would be Red Sox’ 3B Pablo Sandoval, who went .245-10-47 (all full-season career lows) after signing a five-year $95 million deal with Boston.  If Sandoval reports in shape and ready for the challenge, his bat could help the Red Sox (who added David Price and Craig Kimbrel in the off season) move back into relevance in the AL East.

Central

Victor Martinez, DH, Detroit Tigers

The Detroit Tigers’ fall from grace was pretty rapid- from four consecutive first-place finishes in the Central Division (2011-14) to last place (20 ½ games out) in 2015. They took some solid steps to right the ship, adding RHP Jordan Zimmerman, RHP/closer Francisco Rodriguez, LF Justin Upton and CF Cameron Maybin (among others).  With all those moves, it’s likely Detroit will still need a rebound from DH Victor Martinez if they are going to go from “worst-to-first.”   In 2015, a troublesome knee hampered Martinez’ performance. Not only did he appear in just 120 games (he had topped 150 in each of the previous two season), but the career .302 hitter fell from 2014’s .335-32-103 to .245-11-65. The Tigers clearly need a healthy Martinez as they work to turn things around in 2016.

West

Yu Darvish, RHP, Texas Rangers

Rangers’ top-of-the-rotation ace Yu Darvish underwent Tommy John surgery last season (and didn’t pitch at all). He is slated to be ready to take the mound in mid-May this season.  With the Rangers facing a challenge from the aggressive and maturing Houston Astros, that May return could be just the lift Texas needs to hold off Houston.  What kind of performance (rebound) might Texas expect as Darvish comes off his surgery? In three MLB seasons, Darvish is 39-25, 3.27 – with 680 strikeouts in just 545 1/3 innings pitched.

Only 28-years-old, Darvish is a good candidate for the kind of rebound that could earn him Comeback Player of the Year honors – and help his Rangers hold on to the West Division title.

A few others  who may be in the AL Comeback Player of the Year Mix: Pablo Sandoval, 3B, Red Sox; Hanley Ramirez, 1B, Red Sox;  Matt Weiters, C, Orioles;   Josh Hamilton, LF Rangers. 

More Detail? For BBRT’S 2016 National League Predictions (Division Races and Awards), click here.  For 2016 AL Predictions, click here. 

Fan of baseball trivia?  BBRT has two 99 question (Ballpark Tours tested) trivia quizzes.  For BBRT’s 99 favorite questions, click here.   For a second 99, click here.

Ballpark Tours great 2016 excursion (10 days, 10 games, 7 cities), outlined here. 

I tweet baseball @DavidBBRT

Member:  Society for Americana Baseball Research (SABR); The Baseball Reliquary; Baseball Bloggers Alliance.

As I am putting the final touches on this post, the Super Bowl 50 post-game show is wrapping up.  For BBRT, this means we’re getting very close to hearing four very special words. No, not “Football is finally over,” but rather “Pitchers and catchers report.”

Yes, Spring Training is right around the corner and it’s time for BBRT to drag out what I refer to as my “sometimes empty, often opaque and only occasionally accurate crystal ball” and make some predictions for the upcoming MLB season.   In this post, I’ll provide my predictions for the 2016 American League races, as well as for the AL Cy Young, Rookie of the Year and MVP awards.  Following a brief look at these races, I’ll also include (for baseball “fan-addicts”) an in-depth look at how each team appears to line up.  (Words of caution/Disclaimer: There are still a few free agents out there; Spring Training performance and injuries can alter Opening Day rosters and lineups; there’s neither time nor space to comment on every player expected to make an MLB roster; and these predictions are really just informed speculation.)

Read to the double blue line for the “executive summary,” go beyond for the in-depth analysis – more than you really need to know. (For the previously posted National League predictions, click here.)

Spoiler alert: The Blue Jays outscored their opponents by 221 runs in 2015 and look to be just as potent; BBRT see the Tigers last-place finish a year ago as an aberration and is impressed with their off-season activity; and the best race in the AL may involve two teams from Texas.

Trivia Fans – For our Enjoyment

If you are baseball trivia fan, you may want to try BBRT two 99-question trivia quizzes. Click here for Quiz One or here for Quiz Two.

So, let’s get to BBRT’s 2016 AL Forecast.  First, the “Executive Summary.”

AL EAST

Given Toronto’s returning offense and notable improvements on the mound for Boston and New York, BBRT sees a three-team race, with Toronto simply “overpowering” the Red Sox adn Yankees.

Division Champion – Toronto Blue Jays

In winning the East in 2015, the Blue Jays led MLB baseball in almost every offensive category – in the process outscoring their opponents by 221 runs (891-670). Back are big bashers like Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista, Edwin Incarnacion and Troy Tulowitzski.  Add in a serviceable starting rotation (although they will miss David Price) and an improved bullpen (Drew Storen) and the Blue Jays will be back on top.

Boston Red Sox – Second Place (Wild Card)

The Red Sox set the stage for a revival with the acquisition of two elite pitchers – David Price and Craig Kimbrel – taking pressure of the rest of the rotation and the bullpen.  They back that up with a lineup built on a combination of veteran players (Dustin Pedroia and David Ortiz) and emerging youngsters (Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts). Just a bit of bounce back from Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval should be enough to return the Red Sox to the playoffs.

New York Yankees – Third Place

The Yankees overcame age, injury and controversy last season to win 87 games and capture an unexpected (by many) Wild Card spot.  They return a very similar lineup – dependent more on power than speed (A-Rod, Mark Teixeira, Brian McCann, Carlos Beltran) – and facing some of the same age and potential injury issues.  However, they have a stronger, perhaps the league’s most dominant, bullpen (Aroldis Chapman acquisition, plus Andrew Miller and Dellin Betances), a seemingly healthier Masahiro Tanaka, a full year of Luis Severino’s high 90’s heater and a bit more lineup flexibility.  They Bombers seem capable of repeating last year’s performance. They should be in the fight for the East Division and/or a Wild Card spot.

Tampa Bay Rays – Fourth Place

A solid starting rotation (Chris Archer, Jake Ordozzi, Drew Smyly) will keep the Rays in a lot of games.  However, a thin offense (second-fewest runs in the AL last season) and a bullpen minus Jake McGee will keep Tampa Bay from challenging the top-three in the East.  If the Rays can add offense – perhaps trading from their surplus of starting pitchers – they could make a little noise, but are still likely to fall short of a post-season spot.

Baltimore Orioles – Fifth Place

The Orioles are the reverse of the Rays – plenty of offensive fire power, but a suspect pitching staff.  With Manny Machado, Adam Jones, Chris Davis, and Jonathan Schoop, the Birds have power – and boast solid defense as well.  Among their key needs to contend are a leadoff hitter (perhaps Korean import Hyun-soo Kim can handle that role) and a starting pitcher (or two).  Ultimately, the Orioles are likely to once again top 200 home runs and, once again, fall short of 85 victories.

AL CENTRAL

Worst-to-First use to be a rarity, but it’s happening far more often since the 1991 World Series, which featured the Twins and Braves – both last-place teams during the 1990 season. BBRT looks for the improved Tigers to make the leap this season, winning a relatively balanced Central Division – with Detroit and KC fighting for the top spot and Minnesota, Cleveland and Chicago competing closely for third place.

Division Champion – Detroit Tigers

Lots of new faces in Detroit this season, starting at the top: Jordan Zimmerman (top of the rotation); Francisco Rodriguez (top of the bullpen); Cameron Maybin (likely top of the batting order). Then, for the middle of the order and the outfield, there’s newcomer Justin Upton. Those additions, coupled with a return to form by Justin Verlander, better health (more production) from Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez, and the usual from J.D. Martinez should bring Detroit back to the top of the Division.

Kansas City Royals – Second Place

This is a solid team with a well-balanced lineup, respectable starting rotation, dominant bullpen and tight defense. Plus, they know how to win. They won it all last year – and without a 25-home run hitter or a 15-game winner.  That’s worrisome – as is the fact that their 2015 record included 41 come-from-behind victories.  To repeat as Division champions, the bullpen (led by Wade Davis, Kevin Herrera, newcomer Joakim Soria and Luke Hochevar) will have to continue to be lights out; the “put-the-ball-in-play” offense (led by Kendrys Morales, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas and Lorenzo Cain) will have to keep pressure on opponents; and the starting rotation  (led by Edison Volquez and Yordano Ventura) will have to pitch well enough to get the game to the pen with a chance to win. I think the Royals will come close, but the Tigers may have improved just a little too much

Minnesota Twins – Third Place

The Twins surprised quite a few people with their second-place finish a year ago – and should be competitive again, as their emerging young stars gain experience.  The Twins go into the season looking for continued progress by power-hitting Miguel Sano (18 home runs in just 80 games as a rookie) – and with three potential Rookie of the Year candidates (CF Byron Buxton, RHP Jose Berrios and Korean signee, power-hitting Byung Ho Park). They also have a couple of dependable veteran hitters in 3B Trevor Plouffe and 1B Joe Mauer (although Mauer did have an off season in 2016). There some questions in the rotation (due to a lack of power arms) and the bullpen (closer Glen Perkins health). Ultimately, BBRT looks for the Twins to be competitive – just how competitive will depend on the development of young players like Buxton, Berrios and possibly last year’s Southern League Player of the year OF Max Kepler.

Cleveland Indians – Fourth Place

With Corey Kluber, Danny Salazar and Carlos Carrasco, the Indians have a chance to become just the fourth team in MLB history with three pitchers to log 200+ strikeouts in a season. Pitching is the Indians’ strength – a deep rotation and bullpen. The Tribe finished second in the AL in ERA, third in quality starts and first in strikeouts. Unfortunately, the pitching staff doesn’t get a lot of support. In 2015, the Indians finished eleventh in the AL in runs scored, eleventh in batting average and thirteenth in home runs. Add to that the fact that they start the season without their best offensive performer – LF Michael Brantley (off-season shoulder surgery) – and it could be a long season in Cleveland. There are some bright spots on offense to watch, however, including the potential impact of a full year of young SS Francisco Lindor, who went .313-12-51 in 99 games as a rookie. There just isn’t enough overall offense for BBRT to pick Cleveland higher than fourth.

Chicago White Sox – Fifth Place

The White Sox finished dead last in the AL in home runs and runs scored in 2015, but traded for a pair of big bats in the off season that should move them out of the basement in those categories – 3B Todd Frazier and 2B Brett Lawrie. The pair’s combined 51 home runs and 149 RBI equals about 38 percent of the Sox’ 2015 home run total and 25 percent of the Sox’ 2015 RBI total. With these two joining 1B Jose Abreu and CF Adam Eaton in the offense (and with, perhaps a rebound by Adam LaRoche), the White Sox offense will be notably improved. The rotation is led by three quality southpaws, potential Cy Young candidate Chris Sale, Carlos Rodon and Jose Quintana. In the bullpen, David Robertson is a quality closer, but there are some questions regarding getting the ball to him. The White Sox are indeed improved – and it was difficult to pick them last. The fact is, if Frazier and Lawrie perform as advertised – and if hitting is proven to truly “be contagious” – the Sox could finish as high as third in this extremely balanced division.

AL WEST

This one looks like a two-team race and a rerun of last year’s Rangers/Astros battle. It was so close in my mind, I originally wrote this blog with the Rangers picked for first (based on their experience). Further contemplation led me to reverse the Rangers/Astros order – primarily due to some health concerns related to the Rangers’ rotation. The Angels and Mariners should battle for third, with the A’s again finishing at the bottom.

Division Champion – Houston Astros

The Astros have a unique offense, a perfect storm of power and speed.  Last season, they finished second in the league in home runs and first in stolen bases.  They were also first in strikeouts (23% of Houston’s total plate appearance ended in a K) and tenth in batting average. I do wish they would put the ball in play more, but given that the pitching staff recorded the league’s lowest ERA and the defense committed the third-fewest errors, the maturing Astros should have enough to take the West title in 2016. The offensive excitement this year should come from 2B Jose Altuve (coming off his second straight 200-hit campaign), emerging star RF George Springer, CF Carlos Gomez, 3B Luis Valbuena, LF Colby Rasmus – and from a full year of 2015 Rookie of the Year Carlos Correa. The pitching is solid. The rotation is led by Cy Young Award winner Dallas Keuchel and Lance McCullers and strengthened by free-agent signee Doug Fister.  The bullpen is strong, now led by new closer Ken Giles and his triple-digit fast ball.

Texas Rangers – Second Place (Wild Card)

The Rangers boast a potent, veteran lineup (sprinkled with some exciting youngsters) that has proven it can win under pressure – last season coming from eight games back on August 1 to capture the division title by two games over the Astros. For the Rangers, we can expect veterans 3B Adrian Beltre, DH Prince Fielder and RF Sin Soo Choo to lead the charge, with contributions from CF Delino DeShields, 1B Mitch Moreland and 2B Rougned Odor.  The Rangers, in short, are solid up and down the lineup. (The only offensive question being Josh Hamilton’s health.)

On the mound, there are some health concerns. Ace Yu Darvish is coming back from Tommy John surgery and not expected on the mound until May. (Keep in mind, of course, the Rangers won the division without Darvish in 2015.) If he returns to form, he could lead another second-half Rangers’ surge. Veteran lefty Cole Hamels would be the number-one starter with many teams, and Colby Lewis won 17 games last season. Texas is also counting on Derek Holland (shoulder injury last season) and Martin Perez (who came back from Tommy John surgery in mid-season). There could be a bit of a hiccup there. The bullpen led by closer Shawn Tolleson and benefiting from a full-year of 2015 trade deadline acquisitions Sam Dyson and Jake Diekman should be a strength. I see the Rangers in the post-season as a Wild Card, but if all the rotation health issues are answered positively, they could slip by the Astros again.

Los Angeles Angels – Third Place

The Angels have some star power – appropriate for California – in CF Mike Trout and 1B Albert Pujols, as well as some players on their way to star-level recognition in RF Kole Calhoun and SP Garrett Richards. However, the picture is less bright the deeper you go.  In fact, last year, despite the contributions of Trout, Pujols and Calhoun, the Angels finished twelfth in the AL in runs scored, sixth in HR’s and last in batting average. In the rotation, Richards is a solid number–one and southpaw Hector Santiago (9-9, 3.59) looks good in the number-two spot.  After that, the Angels are looking to a group of starters most of whom have some health concerns, are coming off down years or are short on major league experience.  The bullpen, led by closer Houston Street and key setup man Joe Smith, should be fine. All in all, there just doesn’t seem to be the depth necessary to compete with the Rangers and Astros.

Seattle Mariners – Fourth Place

Seattle had high expectations going into 2015, only to finish fourth at 76-86. The result was a busy off season, which could lead to four new names in the nine-man lineup and an almost totally revamped bullpen.  Joining the returning power trio of 2B Robinson Cano, DH Nelson Cruz and 3B Kyle Seager will be newcomers LF Nori Aoki, 1B Adam Lind, CF Leonys Martin and C Chris Ianetta. There should be some improvement in the offense, thirteenth in the league in runs a year ago. The rotation has the potential to be one the AL’s strongest – the key word being potential. Felix Hernandez, Hisashi Iwakuma and newcomer, innings-eater Wade Miley are set, but the Mariners would like to see young arms like Taijuan Walker, James Paxton and/or Nathan Karns emerge. The are some serious questions in the bullpen, which had the fourth-highest ERA and second most loses in the AL.  Free-agent signee closer Steve Cishek and new setup man Joaquin Benoit (trade) will help, and a lot of new faces (and arms) will be competing for the remaining spots.

There are a lot of new parts to the Seattle puzzle going into the season. It remains to be seen how well they fit together. BBRT anticipates they will fit into another fourth-place finish.

Oakland A’s – Fifth Place

The Oakland A’s finished with the worst record in baseball last season.  As you might expect, they had a lot of holes to fill for 2016 – none bigger than the ones in the bullpen. Last season the A’s had the AL’s worst bullpen ERA (4.63), second-most bullpen losses and fewest saves.   Free-agent signees Ryan Madson and John Axford will help. In addition, the A’s picked up Liam Hendriks and Marc Rzepczynski in trades. Also key to reworking the bullpen would be a successful recovery from last season’s shoulder issues by closer Sean Doolittle.  A’s fan can look forward to a more reliable relief corps in 2016.  Hard to say how many leads they will be given to protect. After All Star Sonny Gray (14-7, 2.73) and, perhaps, Jesse Hahn (6-6. 3.35), the stable of starting pitchers offers more questions than answers. In addition, the offense is not likely to produce at a level needed to climb out of the basement. While the A’s had six players with 15 or more home runs last season, only one Josh Reddick reached 20. The A’s may have solved their bullpen issues, but they still to come up with at least one more middle-of-the-lineup bat, as well as a reliable back of the rotation to move up in the standings.

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AL AWARD WINNERS

MVP

1. Miguel Cabrera, Tigers – A combination of a healthy season. a return to his expected power numbers and a Tigers’ rise in the standings could give Cabrera his third MVP award.
2. Mike Trout, Angels – MLB’s best all-around player has never finished lower than second in MVP balloting. Another great year for Trout, but no post-season for Angels costs him votes.
3. Jose Altuve, Astros – This is the year voters recognize how important the Astros’ second basemen is to his team. Houston fights for the pennant, Altuve challenges for his second batting title, takes another stolen base crown and delivers another 200-hit campaign.

Cy Young Award

1. Chris Sale, LHP, White Sox – The southpaw has finished no lower than sixth in the CYA voting over the past four seasons. He led the league in strikeouts last season (274 in 208 2/3 innings), while going 13-11, 3.41. Pitching with the White Sox puts him at a disadvantage for wins, but he has a shot at the CYA if he can put up 14 victories. Remember Felix Hernandez won the Cy Young in 2010 with a 13-12 record and a league-low 2.27 ERA. If Sale can top the league in ERA or K’s, he can win this thing.
2. David Price, LHP, Red Sox – The 2012 CYA winner finished second in the balloting last year, after going 18-5,with a league-low 2.45 ERA and 225 strikeouts for Toronto and Detroit. Now on Boston’s big stage, he should help revive the Red Sox post-season hopes and that could earn him his second CYA.
3. Dallas Keuchel, LHP, Astros – Many people felt Keuchel was a real surprise in 2015, as he won the Cy Young and put up a 20-8 record, with a 2.48 ERA. They apparently didn’t notice that his 2014 12-9 record also included an ERA under 3.00 (2.93) and a league-leading five complete games.  He’s for real and he’ll be near the top of the ballot again.

Rookie of the Year

1. Byung Ho Park, 1B/DH, Minnesota Twins – The Korean star hit .324, with 105 home runs and 270 RBI over the past two seasons in the KBO (268 games). It would be unrealistic to look for those numbers in the AL, but a .280-28-85 season is not out of the question.
2. Byron Buxton, CF, Minnesota Twins – Rated MLB’s number-one or number-two prospect in in nearly all the surveys, it’s time for Buxton to live up to the hype. He’s stumbled at the major league level, but he’s only 23 and has shown all the tools in the minors.
3. Joe Berrios, RHP, Minnesota Twins … Nothing left to prove in the minors. Last season, Berrios went 14-5, 2.87 ERA at AA and AAA. He also led all minor leaguers in strikeouts with 175 in 166 1/3 innings (walking just 38). If he gets an early enough call to the Twins, he could surprise everyone and outpoll Park and Buxton.

So, there are BBRT’s 2016 AL predcitions.  Again, for the NL Forecast click here.

NOW, IF YOU ARE A “FAN-ADDICT” AND WANT THE FULL DETAIL – READ ON.

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AL EAST

Toronto Blue Jays – First Place

Last season the East Division-champion Blue Jays led all of baseball in runs scored (891) – by a margin of 127 over the second-highest scoring team (Yankees). They also finished atop all of MLB in home runs, RBI, total bases, slugging percentage, on base percentage – and fell just one percentage point short of tying the Tigers for the best team batting average (.269 to the Tigers’ .270). Gone from that team are rotation ace David Price (free agency) and leadoff hitter Ben Revere (traded for reliever Drew Storen). Still, returning are mashers Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista, Edwin Incarnacion and Troy Tulowitzski.  BBRT thinks that will be plenty enough for the Jays to stay on top of the East.

Since offense is the name of the game for Toronto, let’s start with a look at the lineup.  With Revere gone, the Blue Jays are looking for a leadoff hitter.  BBRT thinks they only need to look as far as SS Troy Tulowitzski. Last season, Tulo hit .280, with 17 home runs and 70 RBI in 128 games (Colorado and Toronto).  In 2015, the Blue Jays won 22 of the 26 games in which Tulo lead off. Whoever bats leadoff will be setting the table for the big bats of 2015 AL MVP 3B Josh Donaldson (.297-41-123), RF Jose Bautista (.250-40-114) and DH Edwin Encarnacion (.277-39-111). At 1B, the Jays will get plenty of production out of right-handed hitting Chris Colabello (.321-15-54 in 101 games) and switch-hitter Justin Smoak (.226-18-59). Tulowitzski’s steady glove at short is complemented by defensive wiz Ryan Goins at 2B (.250-5-45). Also in the lineup are C Russell Martin (.240-23-77); CF Kevin Pillar (.278-12-56, with 25 steals); and likely LF Michael Saunders (coming off knee surgery). If Saunders isn’t ready (and it looks like he will be), the Blue Jays can turn to Dalton Pompey or Ezequiel Carrera.

With the loss of Price, the rotation lacks a true ace. The Blue Jays, however, think 24-year-old Marcus Stroman – recovered from a 2015 Spring Training torn ACL – can fill that bill. Stroman went 11-6, 3.65 in his rookie season (2014) and 4-0, 1.67 in four late-season starts last year. The number-two spot in the rotation likely will go to veteran Marco Estrada (13-8, 3.13), while number-three will be the really veteran 41-year-old knuckleballer (and former Cy Young Award winner) R.A. Dickey (11-11, 3.91). The Jays also brought free-agent J.A. Happ back based on his 7-2, 1.85 record with Pittsburgh last season. Happ started the year with the Mariners, where he went 4-6, 4.64. (Note:  Happ has a record of 39-35. 3.92 in seven NL seasons and 23-26, 4.46 in four AL seasons.) The final rotation spot will likely go to Jesse Chavez, picked up in a trade with the A’s. Chavez was 7-15, 4.18 for the A’s last season – but 8-8, 3.45 in 2014. Also competing for a rotation spot may be Drew Hutchinson (13-5 last year, but with a 5.57 ERA). Not a dominating rotation, but it should be good enough to get the job done given the expected run support.

The bullpen looks stronger this year (22 blown saves, fifth-most in the AL a year ago), with the acquisition of Drew Storen in the Revere trade.  Storen saved 29 games for the Nationals a year ago (3.44, 67 strikeouts in 55 innings), before losing his closing job to Nationals’ trade-deadline acquisition Jonathan Papelbon. Also in the closer mix could be Jays’ 2015 ninth-inning man, Roberto Osuna (20 saves, 2.58, 75 strikeouts in 69 2/3 innings). Whomever emerges, the Jays look to be strong in the eighth and ninth innings. Among the others likely to be in the pen are lefty Brett Cecil (2.48, with five saves and 70 whiffs in 63 innings); Aaron Sanchez (7-6, 3.22 in 41 games, 11 starts); Aaron Loup (4.46, with 46 strikeouts in 42 1/3 innings); Ryan Tepera (3.27 in 32 appearances); and Bo Schultz (3.56 in 31 games).

Ultimately, baseball’s most explosive offense, solid defense up the middle (Tulo, Goins, Pillar), an adequate rotation and an improved bullpen spell a repeat as East Division leaders.

Boston Red Sox – Second Place (Wild Card)

The Red Sox were my number-one East Division pick last season (I projected the Blue Jays for second place) on the strength of solid rotation, decent bullpen and an already potent lineup boosted by the addition of Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval.  Ouch! Ramirez and Sandoval went from a combined .291-29-144 in 2014 to .214-29-100 in 2015.  This year, the Red Sox focused their most dramatic off-season moves on the mound – elite closer Craig Kimbrel (trade with the Padres) and Cy Young candidate David Price (free agent).  BBRT sees improved performance by Ramirez and Sandoval, a strengthened rotation, deeper bullpen and continued growth by youngsters Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts as bringing Boston back to a spot near the top of the Division.

So, let’s take a look at the Boston offense.  Two veterans will play a key role in run production: 2B Dustin Pedroia (.291-12-42 in 93 games – hamstring) and 41-year-old DH David Ortiz (.273-37-108), who has announced this will be his last season. The middle of the lineup will likely consist of Ortiz, 1B Ramirez (.249-19-53) and rising star SS Xander Bogaerts, who went .320-7-81 in just his second full MLB season. Another emerging youngster, 23-year-old RF Mookie Betts, should be leading off.  Betts hit .291-18-77 last season.  Sandoval (a disappointing .245-10-47) should hold down 3B, with the bottom of the order consisting of LF Rusney Castillo (.253-5-29 in 80 games), C Blake Swihart (.274-5-31 in 84 games) and plus-defender CF Jackie Bradley (.249-10-43 in 74 games). The Sox added some outfield depth with the signing of free-agent (Yankees) Chris Young. The versatile and steady-hitting Brock Holt can fill in around the diamond. The 2015 All Star got in 129 games last season – playing every position except catcher and pitcher.

What will get Boston back the playoffs is the improved pitching staff.  It starts with 2012 AL Cy Young Award winner southpaw David Price – who went 18-5, with 225 strikeouts in 220 1/3 innings for Detroit and Toronto last season. Adding free-agent Price not only puts an “ace” at the top of the staff, it takes considerable pressure off the rest of the rotation.  If healthy, two-time All Star Clay Bucholz (7-7, 3.26 in 18 starts, before elbow issues) gives Boston a solid number-two starter.  (Unfortunately, Bucholz’ health cannot be taken for granted.  He has spent time on the Disabled List in each of the past six seasons). The Red Sox will also be looking for rebound by Rick Porcello (9-15, 4.92), a 15-game winner (for Detroit) as recently as 2014.  Twenty-two-year-old southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez (10-6, 3.85 in his 2015 rookie season) should provide quality innings, and Joe Kelly (10-6, 4.82) will be in the mix for the fifth spot, as could be Steven Wright (5-4, 4.09) and southpaws Henry Owens (4-4, 4.57) and Roenis Elias (5-8, 4.14).

The bullpen looks strong for 2016, led by new closer Craig Kimbrel (2.58, 39 saves, 87 strikeouts in 59 1/3 innings for San Diego). Last season’s closer, 40-year-old Koji Uehara (25 saves, 2.23, with 47 whiffs in 40 1/3 innings), takes over the key setup role. Also expected to contribute in the much deeper pen are Carson Smith (2.31, with 13 saves and 92 strikeouts in 70 innings), acquired in a trade with the Mariners, and Junichi Tazawa (4.14 in 61 games).

There are a couple of questions in the rotation, but it appears Boston has the offensive punch and bullpen strength to overcome them (unless Bucholz and Porcello both implode.) And, if Bucholz and Porcello both bounce back, a Division title does not seem out of the question.

New York Yankees – Third Place

The New York Yankee fooled a lot of “prognosticators” – including BBRT – last season by finishing second in the AL East and earning a post season slot. Those who saw the Bronx Bombers slipping cited age, injury and controversy. Interestingly, the Yankees felt the impact of all three: The Yankees did depend on “veteran” players like 38-year-old Carlos Beltran, 39-year-old Alex Rodriguez and 35-year-old C.C. Sabathia;  injuries did limit the seasons of key players like Jacob Ellsbury, Mark Teixeira and Masahiro Tanaka; and controversy continued to surround the Yankees (read A-Rod).  Still, they overcame all that and won 87 games.  BBRT sees the Yankees repeating that performance, and staying in the race for an AL Wild Card spot.

The lineup will again be powered by DH Alex Rodriguez (.250-33-86); 1B Mark Teixeira (.255-31-79); C Brian McCann (.232-26-94); and Carlos Beltran (.276-19-67). Setting the table will be the capable duo of leadoff hitter Jacob Ellsbury (.257-7-33, with 21 steals) and LF Brett Gardner (.259-16-66, with 20 steals). Chase Headley (.259-11-62) should handle 3B.  The only starters under 30 will be in the middle of the infield – 2B belongs to newcomer Starlin Castro (.265-11-69), acquired in a trade with the Cubs, and SS will likely be manned by Didi Gregorius (.265-9-56).  The Yankees will miss Greg Bird (1B/DH), out for the season due to shoulder surgery. The 23-yer-old Bird – who hit .261-11-31 after a mid-August debut – would have been a valuable asset in managing the playing time of veterans like Rodriguez and Teixeira. Dennis Ackley (.231-10-30 for Seattle and NY, but .288 in 23 games with the Yankees) and Aaron Hicks (.256-11-33) should see increased playing time as a result

The rotation is considerably younger than the lineup.  It starts with 27-year-old Masahiro Tanaka (who fought through wrist and forearm issues to go 12-7, 3.51 in 25 starts). The Yankees are also hoping for continued improvement from one-time elite prospect, 27-year-old Michael Pineda (12-10, 4.37 last season, with 156 K’s in 160 2/3 innings). Louis Severino (who will be 22 when the season opens) opened some eyes after his August MLB debut – going 5-3, 2.89 in 11 starts. Twenty-five-year-old Nathan Eovaldi also proved a workable starter (14-3, 4.20). The only southpaw in the rotation is likely to be 35-year-old C.C. Sabathia (6-10, 4.73), who has struggled with knee issues.

The bullpen is where the Yankees really upped their game in the off season – acquiring flamethrower Aroldis Chapman (1.63 ERA with 33 saves and 166 strikeouts in 66 1/3 innings) from the Reds. Key set up men will be 2015 closer Andrew Miller (2.04, 36 saves and 100 strikeouts in 61 2/3 innings) and Dellin Betances (1.50, with 131 strikeouts in 84 innings over 74 games).  Wow! The top three arms out of the NY bullpen for 2016, last year appeared in 199 games, threw 212 innings, struck out 347 hitters and ran up a combined 1.04 ERA. The elite bullpen will take a lot of pressure off the Yankee starters.

Tampa Bay Rays – Fourth Place

BBRT could have gone with the Rays or Orioles here – particularly after the O’s re-signed power source Chris Davis.  Very simply, of these two teams, the Orioles have the edge in the batter’s box, the Marlins on the mound.  BBRT gives pitching, and the Marlins, the edge.

The rotation starts with potential Cy Young candidate (fifth in the AL voting last season) Chris Archer (12-13, 3.23 ERA, with 252 strikeouts in 212 innings). Next up is lefty Drew Smyly, coming off shoulder issues, but also off a strong September (4-0, 2.50 with 45 whiffs in 36 innings). On the year, Smyly was 5-2, 3.11 in 12 starts, with 77 K’s in 66 2/3 innings. If he stays healthy, he’ll be a strong number-two. Slotted in at number three – or two, with Smyly at three – is Jake Odorizzi (9-9, 3.35). Also expected in the rotation is southpaw Matt Moore, now more than a year removed from Tommy John surgery. Moore was 3-4, 5.43 in 2015, but 2-1, 2.97 in September. He was a 17-game winner in 2013.  Erasmo Ramirez (11-6, 3.75) should round out the Rays’ talented rotation.   And, in the second half, the Rays anticipate the return of Alex Cobb (Tommy John surgery), who sat out the 2015 season. In 2013-14, Cobb went a combined 21-12, 2.82.  To back up this set of arms, there is also elite prospect southpaw Blake Snell (15-4, 1.41, with 153 K’s in 134 innings at three minor league stops last season).  Snell has nothing left to prove in the minors and BBRT expects to see him with the big club before year-end.  In short, the Rays have an abundance of quality options for the rotation.

The bullpen is neither as proven nor as deep.  It’s led by closer Brad Boxberger, who logged an AL-leading 41 saves, with a 3.71 ERA, a year ago.  Boxberger notched 74 strikeouts in 63 innings, but his 32 walks, 10 losses and six blown saves are points of concern.  The pressure will be on the bullpen this year, as the Rays traded their other option at closer and top setup man (and arguably their best reliever) Jake McGee to the Rockies for OF Corey Dickerson in an effort to add some offense.  In six seasons with the Rays, McGee had a 2.77 ERA with 319 strikeouts in 259 2/3 innings.  Among those the Rays may be looking to step up are: southpaw Xavier Cedeno (2.35 in 66 games); Steve Geltz (3.74 in 70 games); Alex Colome (3.94 in 43 appearances, 13 starts): and Danny Farquhar (5.12 in 43 appearances for the Mariners).

Only the White Sox scored fewer runs than the Rays in the AL last season and the outlook does not look significantly improved.  The Rays did add the bats of 1B/DH Logan Morrison (.225-17-54) and LF Corey Dickerson (.304-10-31 in 65 games) in trades with Seattle and Colorado, respectively. BBRT note:  Dickerson hit only .257 away from Coors Field. Both should get plenty of at bats with the Rays.  For Tampa Bay, the offense pretty much goes through three-time All Star and two-time Gold Glover 3B Evan Longoria, who delivered a .270-21-73 season in 2015.  Things fell off after Longoria (he was the only Ray to reach 20 home runs or 70 RBI).  However, Longoria should once again get help from 2B Logan Forsythe (.281-17-68), who had a career year in 2015.  And, while he does not have the traditional power stats of a corner infielder, James Loney is a steady hitter (.280-4-32) over at first. Missed will be SS Asdrubal Cabrera (free agency), who chipped in 15 home runs and 58 RBI in 2015.  SS now belongs to Brad Miller (.258-11-46 with Seattle), who will probably bat in the number-two spot, with either Dickerson, OF Steve Souza (.225-16-40, 12 steals) or OF Desmond Jennings (coming back from a knee injury) leading off.  CF belongs to elite defender Kevin Kevin Kiermaier (.263-10-40, with 18 steals). Kiemaier topped all of MLB in “Defensive Runs Saved” by a wide margin in 2015. Catching duties likely will fall to some combination of Rene Rivera (.178-5-26), Curt Casali (.238-10-18 in 38 games) and Hank Conger (.229-11-33 for Houston).  Last season, the Rays used pinch-hitters an AL-leading 218 times. We can expect to see continued juggling as the Rays try to squeeze all they can out of a lean offense.  Still, their pitching should keep them in the neighborhood of .500 – and ahead of the Orioles,

Baltimore Orioles – Fifth Place

The Orioles took a bit of a fall in 2015 – going from 2014’s Division title and a 96-66 record to an 81-81 mark and a third-place finish.  If you had to point to a reason, look toward the mound.  In 2014, the Orioles notched a 3.43 ERA (third-best in the AL). In 2015, Orioles’ ERA was 4.05, good for ninth in the AL.  Yes, the Birds did miss the offense of Nick Markakis and Nelson Cruz, but pitching – particular starting pitching – had the biggest impact on their post-season hopes. It looks like a similar story for 2016 – unless we see some significant turn-arounds in the rotation.

At the top of the 2016 rotation will be Chris Tillman – a disappointing 11-11, 4.99 last season, but 13-6, 3.34 for the Orioles in 2014 and a 16-game winner in 2013. Also returning to the starting five are Miguel Gonzalez (9-12, 4.91 – after a 10-9, 3.23 record in 2014); Ubaldo Jimenez (12-10, 4.11); Kevin Gausman (4-7, 4.25 – after a 7-7,  3.57 record in 2014); and a fifth starter likely drawn from among Mike Wright (3-5, 6.04), Tyler Wilson (2-2, 3.50) and Vance Worley (4-6, 4.02).

While the starting staff has a lot of questions, the bullpen remains a strength.  It’s led by closer Zach Britton, a converted starter who has saved 73 games for Baltimore over the past two seasons (1.92 ERA with 36 saves last year, with 79 K’s in 65 2/3 innings). There is further quality in set-up man Darren O’Day (1.52 ERA in 68 appearances, 82 K’s in 65 1/3 innings) and a supporting class that includes southpaw Brian Matusz (2.94 in 58 games, with 56 K’s in 49 innings) and Brad Brach (2.72 in 62 games, with 89 K’s in 79 1.3 innings).

The lineup has plenty of pop. In fact, the Orioles have managed 200+ home runs for four consecutive seasons. However, the Birds also had the third-highest strikeout total in the AL (1,331 K’s, one of only four AL teams to whiff 1,300 times) and had the third-fewest walks.  Definitely a swing-away offense.  3B Manny Machado (.286-35-86) and a Gold Glove-level defender may be leading off. He replaced the departed Nick Markakis in the role last season, but would seem better suited for the middle of the lineup. Nolan Reimond (.246-6-20 in 61 games last season) is another leadoff possibility, as is Korean signee Hyun-Soo Kim, who put up a .318 average and .406  on base percentage in 10 seasons in the KBO. The Orioles have a surplus of outfielders, so expect competitive auditions in Spring Training.  Among the key offensive resources (beyond Machado) are Chris Davis (1B/DH), who hit .262, with a league-leading 47 home runs and 117 RBI; CF Adam Jones (.269-27-82, with four Gold Gloves) and 2B Jonathan Schoop (.279, with 15 home runs in 86 games).  Three-time Gold Glover, 33-year-old J.J. Hardy returns at SS. Hampered  by  injuries in recent seasons, Hardy hit just .219-8-37 in 114 games last year, but has topped 20 home runs five times in 11 MLB seasons.  The Orioles are looking for a comeback season from Hardy.  Matt Wieters, returning form ligament surgery, should handle the bulk of the catching. He was .267-8-25 last season, but should be good for 20 round trippers if healthy.   The Orioles actually have a lot of flexibility in putting together their daily lineup.  They can look to free-agent signee Mark Trumbo (.262-22-64 with the Diamondbacks and Mariners), who can slot in at 1B, DH  or a corner OF spot; switch-hitter Jimmy Paredes (.275-10-42), who  can fill in at 2B and 3B; and Ryan Flaherty (.202-9-31) can play pretty much anywhere you put him.

Ultimately, the Orioles have a lot off offensive weapons, but not enough pitching to contend in the East.  Trading some of that HR power for a top of the line starter could improve their chances.

AL CENTRAL

Detroit Tigers – First Place

Going out on a limb here and betting that Detroit’s 2015 last-place finish in the AL Central was an aberration.  Looking for the Tigers – who topped the Division four straight season from 2011-2014 – to rebound.  This is largely based on the impact of newcomers free agent Jordan Zimmerman (at the top of the rotation), free agent Francisco Rodriguez (at the top of the bullpen) and trade acquisition Cameron Maybin (at the top of the lineup). Couple that with an offense led by the likes of Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez and J.D. Martinez and BBRT expects the Tigers to roar back into contention.

Let’s start with the pitching staff. Newcomer Jordan Zimmerman (replacing David Price, who was traded in mid-season) could be the “ace.” He comes over from the Nationals after a 13-10, 3.66 season – and has won 46 games over the past three seasons. He will have an impact.  Justin Verlander may have something to say about who leads this staff, despite a 5-8, 3.38 record in 20 starts (triceps) last season. In the second half of 2015, Verlander went 5-6, 2.80 in 15 starts, with 95 strikeouts in 103 innings. If Verlander can maintain his late-season form, the Tigers will have a solid 1-2 at the top of the rotation. Anibel Sanchez (10-10, 4.99) slots in at number-three – and should rebound (last season was the first time since 2008 that his ERA reached 4.00). Free agent Mike Pelfrey is likely to join the rotation (6-11, 4.26 for the Twins), which should be rounded out by youngster Daniel Norris (of VW-van fame), a southpaw who went 2-1, 3.68 when the Tigers gave him a look last season.  All in all, it looks like an improved rotation (with a few question marks).

The real improvement for the Tigers, however, is in the bullpen (where the Tigers had the fourth-highest ERA in MLB a year ago.) The new closer will be free-agent signee Francisco Rodriguez (2.21 with 38 saves for Milwaukee). A pair of newcomers likely will get the ball to Rodriguez: free agent Mark Lowe (1.96 ERA in 57 appearances for Seattle and Toronto, with 61 strikeouts in 55 innings) and lefty Justin Wilson (trade with the Yankees), who had a 3.10 ERA in 74 appearances.  Also manning what is now a deep bullpen should be Blaine Hardy (3.08 in 70 games) and Alex Wilson (2.19 in 59 games).

Moving to the lineup, the leadoff spot looks to belong either to free-agent signee Cameron Maybin (most likely in CF) or returnee 2B Ian Kinsler (.296-11-73, with ten steals).   Maybin, who started his career with Detroit, went .267-10-50, with 23 steals for the Braves last season. The Tigers added power and speed with the signing of three-time All Star Justin Upton.  Slated for LF, Upton hit .251-26-81, with 19 steals in San Diego last season (and has a .271 career average). His potent bat may be headed for the number-two slot in the lineup.  Right in the middle (3-4-5), the Tigers could put forward 1B Miguel Cabrera (.338-18-76), who won the batting title in an injury-dampened season, and looks to add more power in 2015; DH Victor Martinez, who also suffered through health issues (knee) last season, and went .245-11-64; and RF J.D. Martinez (.282-38-102).  Victor Martinez’ .245 average was the lowest of his career; look for him to finish 2016 closer to his .302 career mark. Rounding out the lineup are likely to be SS Jose Iglesias, who hit .300-2-23, with 11 steals, but is a health risk; 3B Nick Castellanos (.255-15-73); and C James McCann (.264-7-41).  As the Tigers work to manage the playing time of veterans, or respond to health concerns, utility man Mike Aviles (.231-5-17 in 98 games for Cleveland) should be a valuable asset; as should switch-hitting infielder Andrew Romine and OF Anthony Gose.

The Tigers have retooled for 2016 – a new arm at the top of the rotation; a new leader in the bullpen; a couple of new bats in the lineup – and more.  BBRT thinks they will surprise a lot of people, including the Royals.

Kansas City Royals – Second Place

The Royals proved a point last year.  You can win it all without a 25-HR hitter in the lineup, or a 15-game winner in the rotation.  What you need is a solid team, with a well-balanced line up, a respectable starting rotation, an exceptional bullpen and tight defense.  That’s what brought Kansas City success in 2015, and it’s what will keep them near the top of the AL Central.  In Kansas City, baseball is truly a team game –and that will again be fun to watch.

Now, I have often asserted my love of the 3-2 game and the 6-4-3 double play.  Very simply, I love good defense, and that is where the Royals’ success begins.  Look around the field – Eric Hosmer a three-time Gold Glover at 1B, Alcides Escobar the 2015 AL Gold Glover at SS, Alex Gordon a four-time Gold Glover in LF, Salvador Perez a three-time Gold Glover behind the plate. And the rest of the defense follows the example of these exceptional defenders – making all the plays they should, and some that tend to surprise.

On offense, the Royals are well-balanced and well-disciplined. The Royals, in fact, put the ball in play more than any other team.  They struck out the fewest times of any team last season – the only team to whiff fewer than 1,000 times. They also had the second-fewest walks of any team (373). While they were 24^th in home runs among MLB’s 30 teams, the Royals did pressure opponents on the bases.  They finished tied for second in team batting average, third in doubles (one of only three teams with at least 300 two-baggers), sixth in triples, and fifth in stolen bases (one of just six teams with at least 100 steals).

So, let’s look at that offense.  Again, while the Royals did not have a single player reach 25 home runs, they did have six players hit between 13 and 22 long balls.  Back in the middle of the lineup will be DH Kendry Morales (.290-22-106); 1B Eric Hosmer (.297-18-93, 7 steals); and 3B Mike Moustakas (.284-22-82).  Setting the table for these three likely will be SS Alcides Escobar (.257-3-47, 17 stolen basis) and rising star CF Lorenzo Cain (.307-16-72, 28 steals). There are steady bats all the way down to the six- and seven-spots in the order – catcher Salvador Perez (.260-21-70) and LF Alex Gordon (.271-13-48). The final two spots in the lineup appear slated for 2B Omar Infante (.220-2-44) and in RF either (or some combination of) Jarrod Dyson (.250-2-18 in 90 games) or Paulo Orlando (.249-7-27 in 86 games).

In the rotation, the Royals did lose Johnny Cueto to free agency (Giants).  While last season’s mid-year pickup would have been a welcome addition to the 2016 rotation, Cueto was only 4-7, 4.76 after coming over from the Reds (where he was 7-6, 2.62). Heading the 2016 rotation will once again be Edison Volquez (13-9, 3.55).  The number-two slot should go to the fiery Yordano Ventura (13-8, 4.08) – who had his ups and downs last season, but has a live arm and went 14-10, 3.20  in 2014.  The Royals added a veteran arm to the rotation with recent signing of Ian Kennedy (9-15, 4.28 for the Padres). The final two spots should be decided in a competition among southpaw Danny Duffy (7-8, 4.08, after a 9-12, 2.53 campaign in 2014); Chris Young (11-6, 3.06 in 34 games, 18 starts); and Kris Medlen (6-2, 4.01 in 15 games, after returning from his second Tommy John surgery). Medlen, who did not pitch in 2014, was a 15-game winner (3.11 ERA) for the Braves in 2013.

The rotation, while not dominant, is good enough to keep the Royals in games – and get the game to KC’s solid bullpen. The quality of that pen, coupled with the pressure applied by the Royals “put-the-ball-in play” offense is why KC led the AL in come-from-behind wins in 2015 (41) and also notched eight come-from-behind victories in the 2015 post-season.  The bullpen will be led by “lights out” Wade Davis, who took over for closer Greg Holland (32 saves), who was lost to a ligament tear late in the season. On the year, Davis was 8-1, with a 0.94 ERA and 17 saves (in 18 opportunities), with 78 strikeouts in 67 1/3 innings pitched.  Getting the game to Davis will once again be Kevin Herrera (2.71 ERA in 72 appearances), as well as newcomer (free agent) Joakim Soria, who last season went 3-1, 2.53 with 24 saves for the Tigers and Pirates.  Luke Hochevar (3.73 ERA in 49 games) also returns.

Baseball will once again be fun to watch in Kansas City – high pressure, fast-paced contests.  The Royals have the resources to compete – a balanced “attack,” solid defense, steady rotation and “lights out” bullpen.  It should be enough for second place, but BBRT sees fewer come-from-behind victories, which should open the door for the improved (and hungry) Tigers.

Minnesota Twins – Third Place

The Twins surprised a lot of people with their second-place finish in 2015, when they went 83-79, breaking a string of four straight 90+ loss seasons. The Twins should be competitive again in 2016, as their emerging young stars gain more experience.  In fact, if a couple of the pitching prospects come through, they could challenge the Royals.  However, Minnesota may be a season or two (or a dominant arm or two) away from the kind of run Minnesota enjoyed form 2001-2010 (six Central Division titles).

With the Twins, it all starts with the potential of the team’s youngsters. In fact, there is a good chance the Twins could have three players in the hunt for AL Rookie of the Year:  CF Byron Buxton (rated MLB’s top prospect by MLB Pipeline); 1B/DH Byung Ho Park (who joins the Twins after hitting .343-53-146 in the Korea Baseball Organization last season); and RHP Jose Berrios (rated number 20 by MLB Pipleine).

The Twins’ lineup should provide some added fireworks in 2016.  Somewhere in the middle of the order, Minnesota will enjoy a full year of Miguel Sano (being converted from a corner infielder to a corner outfielder). Sano made his MLB debut in early July last season and hit .269, with 18 home runs and 52 RBI in 80 games. What remains to be seen is how well Sano (6’4”, 260-lbs.) will adjust to the change in position. Byung Ho Park (primarily a first baseman in Korea) should see considerable time at DH. The 29-year-old Park is a veteran of nine seasons in the KBO (but still an MLB Rookie).  He has a .281 KOB career average, with 210 home runs – and punched 105 round trippers in 268 games over the past two seasons.  The Twins would be happy with 25 home runs from Park in his inaugural MLB season.  The third bat in the middle of the lineup belongs to 3B Trevor Plouffe (.244-22-86). At the top of the order, the Twins expect power from 2B Brian Dozier (.236-28-77, 12 steals) and continued clutch-hitting (and a better batting average) from three-time batting champion 1B Joe Mauer (.265-10-66). Rounding out the Twins’ offense, you will likely see LF Eddie Rosario (.267-13-50, with 11 steals), SS Eduardo Escobar (.262-12-58), C Kurt Suzuki (.240-5-50 in an off year for Suzuki, who hit .288 for the Twins in 2014), and top prospect Byron Buxton CF.  Buxton, who retained his rookie status, hit only .209 in 46 games for the Twins last season.  Buxton, however, is rated the number-one or number-two MLB prospect b nearly every rating system. The Twins truly have a young lineup with lots of potential – and there is more in the pipeline. Looking for an opportunity are outfielder Oswaldo Arcia (.276-2-8 in 19 games and only 24) and OF Max Kepler, who will be just 23 when the season opens, and was named the 2015 Southern League Player of the Year. Kepler put up a .322-9-71 stat line, with 18 steals in 112 games at AA Chattanooga.  In addition, the Twins have Eduardo Nunez as a capable backup (.282-4-20, with 8 steals in 72 games) at 2B, 3B and SS.

On the hill, the rotation was improved last season – with Twins starters moving from the major league’s worst ERA in 2014 to the middle of the pack (16^th) last season.  More help may be on the way.  The number-one and two spots are earmarked for Ervin Santana (7-5, 4.00 after coming off an 80-game PED suspension) and Phil Hughes, who struggled with back issues and finished 11-9, 4.40.  If those two return to form, they provide a reliable front of the rotation.  Twins fans are also excited about Kyle Gibson (11-11, 3.84) and Tyler Duffey (5-1, 3.10 in ten starts after an August call-up).  In four minor league seasons, the 25-year-old Duffey, went 29-17, with a 3.20 ERA.  Also in the mix are veterans Rickey Nolasco (5-2, 6.75 in 9 games, ankle surgery) and southpaw Tomy Milone (9-5, 3.92).  Overall, the Twins have the resources to put together a competent rotation and, waiting in the wings, might be the best of them all. Twenty-one-year-old Jose Berrios led all of minor league baseball in strikeouts last season – fanning 175 hitters in 166 1/3 innings at AA and AAA. His overall record was 14-5, 2.87.

The bullpen has some question marks.  Closer Glen Perkins has saved 64 games over the past two seasons, but has also faced neck and back issues in the second half of both seasons. To contend – and stabilize the bullpen – the Twins need a full season of health from Perkins. Also returning to the pen will be Kevin Jepsen acquired from Tampa Bay last July.  Jepsen had a 2.33 ERA on the season (75 appearances) and saved 15 games for the Twins when Perkins went down.  Also in the bullpen mix are Ryan Pressley (2.93 in 27 games), Casey Fien (3.55 in 62 games), former starter Trevor May (8-9, 4.00 in 48 games/16 starts).

The Twins have a developing lineup and an adequate rotation – which should be enough to keep them competitive, but not enough to earn a playoff spot.  They could use one more starter (with the ability to miss bats – Berrios, perhaps); a stable and lengthened bullpen; and a year from Byron Buxton that reflects his top prospect status.  If all those pieces fell into place, the Twins could surprise even more than they did a year ago.

Cleveland Indians – Fourth Place

With the Cleveland Indians success comes in “starts.”  In 2015, The Indians pitching staff had the second-lowest ERA in the AL (3.67, second only to the Astros’ 3.57), the third most quality starts (91) and the most strikeouts (1,407 – one of only two MLB teams to record 1,400+ K’s) and complete games.  Unfortunately, those quality arms didn’t get a lot of support, as the Cleveland offense finished eleventh out of 15 teams in runs scored, eleventh in batting average and thirteenth in home runs.  The Indians added free agents Rajai Davis (Tigers) and Mike Napoli (Rangers) to improve the offense, but given the off-season improvement in most of the AL Central, it’s not likely to be enough.  Still, never discount quality pitching. If things fall right, the Indiasn could repeat their third-place finish of a year ago.  BBRT doesn’t think that’s likely, however

Let’s start with Cleveland strength, the pitching staff.  The ace of the staff is 2014 Cy Young Award winner Corey Kluber. Kluber went from 18 wins in 2014 to leading the AL with 16 losses in 2015.  However, he deserved better.  Kluber fought off a foot injury to go 9-16 – but his 3.49 ERA was thirteenth among AL qualifiers, he was second in innings pitched (222), third in strikeouts (245 in 222 innings), tied for first in complete games (4) and had the third-best Walks & Hits Per Inning Pitched (WHIP) at 1.054.  He deserved better than nine wins and should be back on the winning track with just a little better support in 2016..  Following Kluber in the rotation are a pair of 14-game winners who also have a record of missing bats: Carlos Carrasco (14-12, 2.63, with 216 strikeouts in 183 2/3 innings) and Danny Salazar (14-10, 3.45, with 195 whiffs in 185 innings). The last two spots in the rotation look to belong to Trevor Bauer (11-12, 4.55) and Cody Anderson (7-3, 3.05 in 15 starts after a late June call up). If the Indians want to go with a left-hander, they could work in veteran Josh Tomlin, who went 7-2, 3.02 in ten starts after recovering from shoulder surgery.  The bullpen is led by closer Cody Allen (2.99 ERA, with 34 saves and 99 strikeouts in 69 1/3 innings) and key setup man Bryan Shaw (2.95 in 74 games). There is pretty good depth in the pen, including Zach McAllister (3.00 ERA in 61 appearances), Jeff Manship (0.92 in 32 games) and Austin Adams (3.78 in 28 games).

Things are not as bright on the offensive side of the ledger. Already short on run-producing resources, the Indians are likely to start the season without LF Michael Bradley (off-season shoulder surgery), arguably the team’s best offensive asset (.310-15-84, with 15 steals a year ago). The Indians are hoping free-agent signee 1B/DH Mike Napoli (.224-18-50) can take up some of the slack.  He’ll bat in the middle of the order, along with DH Carlos Santana (.231-19-85, with 11 steals) and 2B Jason Kipnis (.309-9-52, with 12 steals). Leadoff may go to free agent Rajai Davis, who will likely take over LF until Brantley returns.  The Indians also have the option of returning Kipnis to leadoff, where he was effective last year, and putting SS Francisco Lindor in the three-spot.  Lindor made his MLB debut in June and hit .313-12-51, with a dozen stolen bases, in 99 games.  A couple of things are sure about the Indians’ lineup: wherever Lindor bats, the Tribe will benefit from a full year of his production; and Brantley’s absence at the start of the season creates some lineup issues for the team.  Rounding out the lineup, it appears we will see CF Abraham Almonte (.250-5-24 in 82 games); C Yan Gomes (.231-12-45 in 95 games); RF Lonnie Chisenhall (.246-7-44 in 106 games); and 3B Giovany Urshela (.225-6-21 in 81 games).  Joey Butler and Collin Cowgill are available if manager Terry Francona decides to try to optimize the offense and do some outfield platooning.

The Indians clearly have the pitching staff to be competitive.  Corey Kluber’s 2016 won-lost record, however, helps illustrate just how much they need to improve on offense to contend.  Could be a long season at Progressive Field.

Chicago White Sox – Fifth Place

The White Sox finished dead last in runs scored and home runs in the AL in 2015, and were twelfth in batting average. With that in mind, they did go out and secure a couple of bats (via trades) that should improve their offensive output – 3B Todd Frazier (Reds) and 2B Brett Lawrie (A’s). The pair hit a combined 51 home runs and drove in 149 in 2015.

Frazier (.255-35-89, with 13 steals for the Reds) should drop right into the middle of the lineup. Not only will that add power, it will also provide protection (read “more fastballs”) for 1B Joe Abreu, the Sox’ main returning offensive asset (.290-30-101). Also batting in the middle, perhaps in the five-hole, will be DH Adam LaRoche. LaRoche, who came over to the Sox from the Nationals last season, disappointed Sox fans with a .207-12-44 stat line. In the previous three seasons (with Washington), LaRoche averaged .256-26-84. The Sox would like to see a rebound from LaRoche. What is worrisome, however, is that he seemed to regress as the season progressed (LaRoche hit .222 in the first half and only .182 after the break). We may see Lawrie’s bat higher in the lineup if LaRoche doesn’t come around.  Setting the table at the top of the order should be CF Adam Eaton (.287-14-56, with 18 steals) and LF Melky Cabrera (.273-12-77). On a positive note, both put up better numbers in the second half than the first half.  Rounding out the starting nine will be 2B Brett Lawrie (.260-16-60 for the A’s) and RF Avisail Garcia (.257-13-59).  We may see competition at SS – with Tyler Saladino (.225-4-20 in 68 games) moving over from 3B or Carlos Sanchez (.224-5-31 in 120 games) making the transition from 2B. Also in the infield mix is utility man Leury Garcia, yet to prove he can handle major league pitching, but just off a solid season (.298-3-31, with 30 stolen bases at AAA). Could be an interesting spring for those three.  Catching looks to be split primarily between free-agent signees Alex Avila (.199-4-13 in 67 games for Detroit) and Dioner Navarro (.246-5-20). Clearly, with Frazier and Lawrie joining Eaton and Abreu, the offense will be much improved, but there are still too many holes for the White Sox to be a force.

The White Sox do have the luxury of sending a true Cy Young candidate to the mound every fifth Day. Southpaw Chris Sale was 13-11, 3.41 in 31 starts last year – leading the AL in strikeouts with 274 (208 2/3 Innings) in what he might consider an off year. (Sale has a career 2.91 ERA). While Sale is the clear “ace,” the number-two spot is not as clear. That distinction goes either to hard-throwing Carlos Rodon (9-6, 3.75, with 139 K’s in 139 1/3 innings in his first full MLB season) or Jose Quintana (9-10, 3.36). Rodon and Quintana, like Sale, are both left-handers.  Also in the rotation, we should see John Danks (7-15, 4.71) and Erik Johnson (3-1, 3.34 in 6 starts, after being named the International League’s Most Valuable Pitcher). The 26-year-old should spend the full campaign with Chicago.

The bullpen will be led again by closer David Robertson (3.41, with 34 saves and 86 K’s in 63 1/3 innings). Getting to Robertson may be a bit of a challenge.  He is fronted by a pen that includes Jake Pertrikca (3.63 ERA in 62 games, but only 33 strikeouts in 52 innings) and Zach Putnam (64 K’s in 48 2/3 innings, but also 24 walks and a 4.07 ERA). Nate Jones, coming back from Tommy John surgery, looked good late in the season (3.32 in 19 games, with 27 strikeouts in just 19 innings) and has a shot at the eighth inning.

So, what can we say about the Sox?  First, off-season acquisitions should improve the offense – but there are still some holes.  Second, the starting rotation, particularly the front half, looks solid. Third, there are questions in the bullpen.  It all appears to add up to a fight for fourth place with the Indians, whose pitching may give them an edge over the White Sox.   That said, if things fall right, Frazier and Lawrie spark the offense, Erick Johoson is as good as advertised and the bullpen steps up,  Chicago could move up a spot or two.

AL West

Houston Astros – First Place

Last season, the Astros finished second in the AL to Toronto in homes runs (232-230) and first in the league in stolen bases – a nice power/speed combination to drive the offense.  They were fifth in runs scored, gave up the leagues fewest runs (with a league-low 3.57 ERA), were sixth in opponent strikeouts, gave up the third-fewest walks and made the third-fewest errors.  Repeating that performance should be enough to earn the Astros another postseason berth.  And, with another year of experience under their belts, Houston’s youthful roster should be even better. Good enough, in fact, to unseat Texas at the top of the West.

The lineup has a nice mix of young “veterans” and “emerging” youngsters.  Right at the top is the shortest (and one of the most exciting) players in baseball. Five-foot-six-inch (25-year-old) Jose Altuve – a three-time All Star already in his sixth season – leads off and gets things started for the Astros. The 2014 AL batting champ hit .313 last season and had his second consecutive 200-hit campaign. He also led the AL with 38 steals and threw in an unexpected 15 home runs.  He will continue to be a force. Right behind Altuve is RF George Springer (26-years-old). Although a right wrist fracture e (hit by pitch) shortened his 2015 season to 102 games, Springer hit .276-16-41, with 16 stolen bases.  A full year of Springer, going into just his third MLB season, should add to the offense.  He’s one of the Astros’ “emerging” players – and a potential 30-30 contributor. In the middle of the lineup 21-year-old Carlos Correa continues the Astros’ power AND speed theme.  Last season’s AL Rookie of the Year, who made his debut in early June, put up a .279-22-68 line, with 14 seals.  LF Colby Rasmus (29-years-old and in his eighth MLB season) adds power in the clean-up spot (.238-25-61 a year ago). Likely to bat fifth is another power/speed guy, CF Carlos Gomez (turned 30 in December), acquired from Milwaukee in a 2015 trade deadline move.   The energetic, spark plug went .255-12-56, with 17 steals for Milwaukee and Houston last season.  Gomez’ 2014 numbers (.284-23-73, 34 steals) are more like what Houston expects of him in 2016. Rounding out the lineup are eight-season veteran, 30-year-old 3B Luis Valbuena (.224-25-56); 29-year-old DH Evan Gattis (.246-27-88), who has topped 20 home runs in each of his three MLB seasons; C Jason Castro (.211-11-31 – 28-years-old); and 24-year-old 1B Jon Singleton.  Singleton, however, still needs to prove himself. He has shown good power in the minor leagues – .254-22-83 at Triple A last year – but has a .171 average in 144 major league games.  If Singleton doesn’t earn the first base nod, Valbuena can play first, and utility man Marwin Gonzalez (.279-12-34) could play third.

Pitching should be strength for the Astros.  The number-one spot in the rotation belongs to southpaw Dallas Keuchel, last year’s AL Cy Young award winner (20-8, 2.48). Next up is fireballer Lance McCullers. The 22-year-old hits the high-90s with his fastball and last season (his rookie year) went 6-7, 3.22 with 129 K’s in 125 2/3 innings after a mid-May MLB debut. Hitters then must transition from McCuller’s power to Collin McHugh’s (19-7, 3.89) finesse. The Astros strengthened the back end of the rotation with the signing of free agent Doug Fister. The 32-year-old veteran went 5-7, 4.19 for the Nationals last season, but the previous two years (Detroit and Washington) went a combined 30-15, 3.11. The Astros likely would settle for something in the middle. There should be healthy competition for the final spot led Scott Feldman (5-5, 3.90 in 18 starts); Mike Fiers (7-10, 3.69 with Milwaukee and Houston).

The bullpen should be improved, primarily by the addition of Ken Giles (trade from the Phillies). Last year, Giles – who has a triple-digit fastball – saved 15 games for Phillies, with a 1.80 ERA and 87 K’s in 70 innings. Key setup men include 2015 closer Luke Gregerson (31 saves, 3.10 ERA in 64 appearances) and Tony Sipp (1.99 in 60 appearances).  Among the other expected contributors: Will Harris (1.90 in 68 appearances); Josh Fields (3.55 in 54 appearances); and the always interesting Pat Neshek (3.62 in 66 games).

The Astros still have one of the youngest rosters in the major leagues, which puts them in a good position to get better – and stay at a high level for quite some time.  This year, BBRT thinks they will hold off Texas in a tight race and take the West

Texas Rangers – Second Place (Wild Card)

If the Rangers can stay close until Yu Dervish’s expected mid-May return (Tommy John surgery), and if Derek Holland and Martin Perez are healthy, they should be in a good position to repeat as West Division Champions. BBRT is not convinced all the rotation pieces will fall into place – and, despite a potent offense, expects the Rangers to make the post season as a WildCard.

In the middle of the lineup are Adrian Beltre (.287-18-83), not only a proven offensive force (400+ home runs and a .285 career average), but also a four-time Gold Glover and a team leader.  However, time – and 18 seasons of wear and tear – are catching up with the Beltre, who will turn 37 in April.  Last season, he hit .287, with 18 home runs and 83 RBI.  In fact, over the past two seasons, Beltre has hit just 37 home runs – after averaging 33 home runs per season in 2011-13. The Rangers need Beltre on the field – and in the clubhouse. Sandwiched around Beltre in the lineup should be DH Prince Fielder (.305-23-98) and LF Josh Hamilton (.253-8-25 in 50 games). Hamilton may be a question mark for this team, having played in only 139 games over the past two seasons.  Joining Hamilton in the outfield, look for leadoff hitter CF Delino DeShields (.261-2-37, with 25 steals in his rookie season) and RF Sin Soo Choo (.276-22-82), who should do a good job of setting the table. The remainder of the lineup includes quality defender 1B Mitch Moreland (.278-23-85); SS Elvis Andrus (.258-7-62); 2B Rougned Odor (who finished strong to put up a .261-16-61 line and .273-12-37 after the break); and C Robinson Chirinos (.232-10-34). The offense looks plenty potent, particularly given the second-half performance of several members of the lineup.  Hamilton’s health may be a concern.  If he should falter, top prospect Joey Gallo – who hits the ball hard and misses it often – could be moved to the OF and get the nod.

The Rangers’ rotation starts with Yu Darvish, coming back from Tommy surgery and not expected on the big league mound until May. From 2012-14, Darvish went 39-25, 3.27 with 680 K’s in 545 1/3 innings.  Texas will be waiting anxiously for Darvish’s return, but keep in mind, they won the West without him a year ago. Veteran southpaw Cole Hamels, acquired from the Phillies last season to take up the slack, is back and will head the rotation.  Hamels went 13-8, 3.65 for the Phils and Rangers – but, more important, 7-1, 3.66 in 12 starts for Texas.  He is proficient at missing bats, last season recording 215 strikeouts in 212 1/3 innigs. Following Hamels is another veteran – Colby Lewis – 17-9, 4.66 last season. The Rangers will be counting on a couple of left-handers coming back from injury in the three- and four- spots. Derek Holland missed most of the season with a shoulder injury, and went 4-3, 4.91 in 10 starts. Martin Perez, came back from Tommy John surgery mid-season and went 3-6, 4.46 in 14 starts.  The Rangers clearly need these two to be healthy. To start the season, the final rotation spot will likely go to Chi Chi Gonzalez (4-6, 3.90).  We’ll have to wait and see, but after Hamels and Lewis (and before the return of Darvish); the rotation could cause some problems for Texas.

The bullpen will be strength – a must for contenders these days. Shawn Tolleson (3.17, 35 saves in 37 opportunities in his first year as a closer) will close. Last year he whiffed 76 hitters in 66 innings and looks to be a dependable ninth-inning hurler. The Rangers should also benefit from having two trade deadline pickups – Sam Dyson and Jake Diekman with the team for a full season. Dyson had a 2.63 ERA in 75 innings for the Marlins and Rangers, while southpaw Diekman finished with a 4.01 in 67 appearances for the Phillies and Rangers (but had a 2.08 ERA in 26 appearances for Texas.)  Overall, Diekman struck out 69 in 58 1/3 innings.  There also is 22-year-old Keone Kela, who put up a 2.39 ERA in 69 games in his rookie season – striking out 68 in 60 1/3 innings. Former closer Tom Wilhelmson is likely to get plenty of work after coming over in a trade. Wilhemson had a 3.19 ERA in 53 games for Seattle last season.

Los Angeles Angels – Third Place

Okay, let’s get it out of the way right away.  The Angels have the best all around player in baseball – CF Mike Trout (.299-41-90, with 11 steals). Trout is just 24-years-old and can already look back on a Rookie of the Year Award and an AL MVP Award.  In fact, in four full seasons, he has never finished lower than second in the AL MVP balloting. This is a guy to build a franchise around.  The Angels, however, still have some building to do   There is a bit of a supporting cast in future Hall of Fame 1B Albert Pujols (.244-40-95), Gold Glove RF Kole Calhoun (.256-26-83) and number-one starter Garrett Richards (15-12, 3.65).  After that, things thin out.  In fact, even with the three bangers noted above, The Angels were twelfth in runs scored in the AL – and, while they were sixth in home runs, they were dead last in the AL in batting average.

Let’s start with bright spot, the middle of the lineup.  Plenty of fireworks here with Trout, Pujols and 26-year-old DH/1B C.J. Cron (.262-16-41 in 113 games.)  Cron may never hit for high average, but after two seasons, it seems reasonable to expect 20-homer power.  The top of the order should consist of Calhoun and veteran Yunel Escobar (.314-9-56), acquired in a trade with Washington) at 3B.  Filling out the lineup are defensive wizard Andrelton Simmons (.265-4-44), acquired in a trade with Atlanta and then whomever emerges from Spring Training (or whomever has the hot hand during the year) at 2B and LF. Among the likely2B  candidates are Johnny Giavotella (.272-4-49) and Cliff Pennington (.210-3-21 for Arizona and Toronto). In LF there are Daniel Nava (.194-1-10 in 60 games for Boston and Tampa Bay) and Craig Gentry (.120-0-3 in 26 games for the A’s). BBRT expects other candidates to emerge as the Angels audition those positions in Spring Training. The bulk of the work behind the plate should go to Carlos Perez (.250-4-21 in 86 games), who showed solid defensive skills last season.

Looking to the rotation, Garrett Richard is for real 28-16, 3.46 over the past two seasons. Lefty Hector Santiago also looks like he could be a stable contributor after going 9-9, 3.59 in 32 starts a year ago. After that, there are a lot of question marks. C.J. Wilson (8-8, 3.89 in 21 starts) is coming back from elbow surgery. Tyler Skaggs (5-5, 4.30 in 2014) is coming back from Tommy John surgery. Former ace Jered Weaver (7-12, 4.64) is coming off a down year – but on the bright side, if you consider last season an anomaly, Weaver’s record from 2006-2014 was 131-69, with a 3.29 ERA. If the 33-year-old, 6’7” hurler can recapture his form, it will be a major plus for the Halos. Twenty-four–year-old southpaw Andrew Heaney should also be in the mix after going 6-4, 3.49 in 18 starts a year ago. Another pitcher the Angels would like to see rebound is Matt Shoemaker. A rookie sensation in 2014 (16-4, 3.04), Shoemaker regressed to 7-10, 4.46. What he will bring to the Angels in 2016 remains to be seen. There just seem to be too many question marks for the Angels’ rotation to turn out good enough to keep LA in contention.

The bullpen will be led by veteran closer (315 career saves) Huston Street, who saved 40 games (45 opportunities) in 2015, with a 3.18 ERA and 57 K’s in 62 1/3 innings. The primary setup man should be Joe Smith (3.58 ERA in 70 games). After that, the competition for relief innings includes such arms as Fernando Salas (4.24 ERA in 72 games), Mike Morin (6.37 in 47 games, 41 K’s in 35 1/3 innings), Al Alburquerque (4.21 in 67 games for Detroit), southpaw Christian Freidrich (5.25 in 68 appearances) and others.

All in all the Angels come up a little short in the lineup – despite boasting some star-quality players – are counting on too many starting pitchers to bounce back from injury or off seasons; and could use more bullpen depth.

Seattle Mariners – Fourth Place

The Mariners, who entered 2015 with high hopes and optimistic expectations. They went on to have a tough year, finishing thirteenth in the AL in runs scored and giving up the league’s fifth-most runs.  The result was a 76-86 record, a fourth-place finish and a busy off-season.  Opening day, in fact, could see a lineup with new faces in LF, CF and at 1B and C, as well as an almost totally revamped bullpen.  It could be another long year, as Seattle works to fit the pieces together. Still there are some reasons to be optimistic.

The middle of the lineup is solid with 2B Robinson Cano (.287-21-79, despite playing through injuries); DH Nelson Cruz (.302-44-93); and 3B Kyle Seager (.266-25-74) all providing plenty of pop. At the top of the order will be one of the many new faces in Seattle, free-agent signee LF Nori Aoki (.287-5-26, with 14 steals in 93 games for the Giants).  Aoki also provides some flexibility, as he can handle CF. Expected in the number-two hole is shortstop Ketel Marte.  Last year, in his rookie season, Marte hit .283-2-17, with 8 steals in 57 games. Likely to complete the lineup are 1B Adam Lind  (.270-20-86), acquired in a trade with the Brewers; RF Seth Smith (.248-12-42); CF Leonys Martin (.219-5-25), acquired in a trade with Texas; and free-agent C Chris Ianetta (.188-10-34 in 92 games for the Angels), focused on coming back from an off year in LA. Why take a chance on Ianetta?  Ianetta’s .188 would have been an improvement on the production LA got out of players filing the catcher’s spot in the Seattle lineup last season. Fourth OF Franklin Guitterrez (.292-15-35 in 59 games) could also see notable playing time.

The Mariners’ rotation has the potential to be one of the best in the AL, but the key word is potential.  It starts with staff ace Felix Hernandez (18-9, 3.53, with 191 K’s in 201 2/3 innings).  The 2010 Cy Young Award winner has been the foundation of the Mariners’ staff for a decade, shows no signs of slowing down and is only 29-years-old (turning 30 in early April). In the number-two spot is Hisashi Iwakuma, who spent some time on the DL last season, but still went 9-5, 3.54 in twenty starts. In 2014, Iwukama was a 15-game winner for Seattle. The third starter is likely to be southpaw Wade Miley, acquired in a trade with the Red Sox. Miley is more of a steady innings eater – four straight seasons of at least 190 innings – and last season went 11-11, 4.46 with the Red Sox.  Now we get down to the “potential” part of the rotation.  The Mariners have several young hurlers who could open some eyes this season. Perhaps the biggest upside belongs to 23-year-old Taijuan Walker. Last year, in his first full major league season, Walker went 11-8, 4.56, with 157 K’s in 169 2/3 innings. Walker has top-of-the-rotation potential, just needs to add some consistency – his month by month ERAs: April-6.86; May-5.74; June-2.36; July-4.95; August-3.73; Sept./Oct-4.86. The Mariners also like southpaw James Paxton, who went 3-4, 3.90 in 13 starts and has a 3.16 ERA over 30 career starts (three seasons). Paxton, however, has had some health issues in the past – so he’s not a sure thing. Also competing for a spot in the rotation is Nathan Karns, acquired in a trade with the Rays. Karns went 7-5 3.67 last year, with 145 K’s in 147 innings as a rookie.  Karns clearly has solid upside, but with a sample based on only 32 MLB appearances (8-7, 4.00) he still has to prove himself.

Seattle’s totally revamped its bullpen in the off-season. In 2015, the Mariners’ bullpen had the fourth-highest ERA in the AL and their 36 losses were second only to the Rays. The closer would appear to be free-agent signee (Cardinals) Steve Cishek (3.58 in 59 games in 2015). Cishek, who saved 73 games for the Marlins in 2013-14, is ready to assume the Seattle ninth-inning role. The key setup man will be Joaquin Benoit, acquired in a trade with the Padres. Benoit had a 2.34 ERA in 67 games for San Diego. Another relatively new face who could earn a spot in the bullpen is rookie Tony Zych, who put up a 2.45 ERA, with 24 strikeouts in 18 innings during a September callup. At AA and AAA last season, Zych put up a 2.98 ERA with 55 K’s and only nine walks in 48 innings. Also in the potential mix are Evan Scribner (acquired in a trade with the A’s), Justin DeFratus (released by the Phillies after the 2015 season), southpaw holdover Victor Nuno (who was acquired during the 2015 season from Arizona), and lefty Charlie Furbush (2.08 in 33 games for Seattle).  It should be an interesting Spring Training as a host of pitchers compete for spots and roles in the Seattle bullpen.

Oakland A’s – Fifth Place

The A’s gave up the fifth-most runs in the AL and  scored the ninth-most, which would seem to point, perhaps not to .500 ball but, to better than the worst record in all of MLB (68-94). The clincher in the A’s performance was the bullpen’s AL-worst 4.63 ERA, second-most bullpen losses and fewest saves; all of which are reflected in the A’s 19-35 record in one run games, and 12-18 record in two-run games.  The fact is, however, the A’s are pretty thin on offense and the mound – lacking both power bats and power arms.

At the top ofthe lineup is capable CF Billy Burns (.294-5-42, with 26 steals). In the two-spot should be 2B Jed Lowrie (.222-9-30 in 69 games), who came back to the A’s in a trade with the Astros. In the middle of the lineup, are C Stephen Voigt (.261-18-72), one of the better hitting catchers in the AL; 3B Danny Valencia (.290-18-66 in 105 games for Toronto and Oakland); and RF Josh Reddick (.272-20-77, with 10 steals). That’s just not the kind of production contenders get form the 3-4-5 spots. To compound matters, Yonder Alonso, the likely starter at first base (a traditional power/run production position), hit .282 in 103 games for the Padres last season, but notched only five home runs and 31 RBI. Alonso hit a career-high nine home runs in 155 games in 2012. Coco Crisp (.175-0-6) played only 44 games a year ago (neck problems), so he is an “if” for LF. If Crisp is not ready, look for some combination of Mark Canha (.254-16-70) and either Sam Fuld or Jake Smolinski (who both hit under .200 a year ago). Given the A’s need for power Canha should get plenty of work regardless of Crip’s status.  He can play LF, 1B or perhaps spell DH Billy Butler (.251-15-65).  Mark Semien showed some pop at SS (.257-15-45), but also led the AL in errors (35). His defense, however, improved as the season progressed. Overall, this is not a lineup that will score the kind of runs needed to support an unproven pitching staff.

Sonny Gray (14-7, 2.73) is the acknowledged number-one starter – and he’s a good one. After that, however, little seems settled.  Here are a few of the candidates. Jesse Hahn, who looked good in going 6-6, 3.35 in 16 starts, has some real potential. There are also Kendall Graveman (6-9, 4.04 in 21 rookie starts), Chris Bassittt (1-8, 3.56), Rich Hill (2-1, 1.55 for the Red Sox in four starts). In addition, the A’s may be looking at Jarrod Parker, coming back after a second Tommy John surgery AND a fractured elbow, (12-8, 3.97 in 2013) and Henderson Alvarez, coming back from shoulder surgery, but 12-7, 2.65 for the Mariners in 2014. If Alvarez is ready at the start of the season, he could be an interesting add to the rotation. Ultimately, after Gray – and maybe Hahn – the competition seems wide open.  And, while there are some interesting possibilities, there also seems to be plenty of risk.

We ‘ve already looked at the the team’s bullpen woes.  The A’s did attempt to address that issue in the off season – although the biggest factor may be how well returning closer Sean Doolittle recovers from last year’s shoulder issues. Doolittle appeared in only 12 games in 2015 (3.95, four saves, 15 K’s in 13 2/3 innings).  In 2014, he saved 26 games, put up a 2.73 ERA and fanned 89 in 62 2/2 innings.  A healthy Doolittle would be a major part of any remedy of the A’s relief problems. They are also looking for help from free-agent signees (Royals) Ryan Madson (2.13 in 68 outings) and (Rockies) John Axford. Axford put up a 4.20 ERA in 60 games with 62 strikeouts in 55 2/3 innings – and, importantly, a 2.70 ERA in games away from Coors Field.    The A’s also are looking at Liam Hendriks (.2.92 in 58 games, with 71 K’s in 64 2/3 innings), acquired in a trade with Toronto; and Marc Rzepczynski (trade with San Diego), who put up a 5.66 ERA in 72 games last season, but has a 3.96 career ERA.  Holdovers from 2015 include Fernando Rodriguez (3.84 in 56 games) and Felix Doubront (5.50 in 16 games with Toronto and Oakland.)  Overall, the bullpen should be  improved.  The real question is how many leads they will be given to protect.  The answer, from BBRT’s perspective, is not enough to make a difference in the standings.

I tweet baseball @DavidBBRT

Member: Society for American Baseball Research (SABR); The Baseball  Reliquary; Baseball Bloggers Alliance.

Spring Training is approaching and it’s time, once again, for BBRT bring out my sometimes empty, often opaque and only occasionally accurate crystal ball.  In this post, I’ll provide my predictions for the upcoming National League races, as well as for the NL’s key awards (Cy Young, Rookie of the Year, MVP winners).  Following a brief look at these races, I’ll also provide (for baseball “fan-addicts”)  an in-depth look at how each team appears to line up.  (Keep in mind, there are still a few free agents out there, and Spring Training performance and injuries can also alter Opening Day rosters. Plus, of course, the predictions are really just informed speculation.) Read to the double blue line for the “executive summary,” go beyond for the in-depth analysis. (Coming soon, will be the American League prediction post.)

Spoiler alert: Overall, BBRT expects close races in each and every NL Division – with plenty of smiles from the East Coast (New York City) to the Central States (Chicago) to the West Coast (San Francisco). So, let’s get to it. 

Trivia Fans

If you are baseball trivia fan, you may want to try BBRT two 99-question trivia quizzes. Click here for Quiz One or here for Quiz Two.

 

NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST

A close race, with the Mets edging the Nationals.

Division Title – NY Mets …. A host of quality young arms in the rotation (Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey, Noah Syndergaard, Steve Matz), a solid bullpen and the retention of Yoenis Cespedes (for both his bat and the emotional boost) in the Lucas Duda/Curtis Granderson-led lineup will be enough to defend the East title.  Veteran 2B Neil Walker replaces post-season hero Daniel Murphy, and the Mets don’t skip a beat.

 

Second Place – Washington Nationals … Had the Nationals spirited Yeonis Cespedes away from the rival Mets, BBRT might have flip-flopped the NL East prediction.  The Nats have a rotation  (Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Tanner Roark and Joe Ross) that would be the envy of many teams – just not the Mets.  They also have a potentially powerful lineup led by MVP Bryce Harper.  Still, to overtake their New York rivals, Washington needs better health from key members of the offense (Ryan Zimmerman, Anthony Rendon and Jayson Werth – none of whom played 100 games a year ago).

Third Place – Miami Marlins

Miami’s will offer some interesting baseball – Giancarlo Stanton’s power; Dee Gordon’s speed and defense; Jose Fernandez’ live arm – there’s just not enough depth or experience to compete with the Mets and Nationals.

Fourth Place – Philadelphia Phillies

Still rebuilding, enough said.  The Phillies were outscored by 184 runs last year – another tough campaign ahead.

Fifth Place – Atlanta Braves

Gone are big names like Andrelton Simmons, Justin Upton, Craig Kimbrel, Shelby Miller, Evan Gattis. Fans may want to track the progress on the new stadium – and its future inhabitants  – like Dansby Swanson, Sean Newcomb and Aaron Blair.

NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL

Cubs and Cardinals fight it out for first place – second place finisher captures a Wild Card Spot. Pirates fall just short of post-season.

Division Title – Chicago Cubs

 

The Cubs did not rest on their 2015 (97-win) laurels.  They raided the division-rival Cardinals for CF Jason Heyward and number-three starter John Lackey, and added the steady and versatile Ben Zobrist.   They also return 2015 Cy Young Award-winner Jake Arietta (a 22-game winner), Rookie of the Year Kris Bryant and a host of young talent.   Add in Joe Maddon again at the helm and you have the East Division winner.

Second Place – St. Louis Cardinals – Wild Card

The Cardinals were the only team to win 100 games last year, and still edged out the number-two and three teams in their Division by just three games.  Now they’ve lost two key free agents (CF Jason Heyward and SP John Lackey) to one of those rivals and number-two starter Lance Lynn to Tommy John surgery.

Still, the Redbirds have a well-balanced veteran line up, led by Matt Carpenter, Matt Holliday and Johnny Peralta, as well as a solid rotation (particularly with staff ace Adam Wainwright, who missed most of last season, back). The bullpen, led by closer Trevor Rosenthal, is also strong.  What may determine the Cardinals’ ability to repeat as Division leader is how quickly Yadier Molina (a team leader and arguably the best catcher in baseball) returns from a pair of off-season thumb surgeries. BBRT’s see the Cardinals as the Wild Card, but a division title is not out of reach – remember they won 100 games a year ago, when Wainwright started only four games.

Third Place – Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates have made the playoff three seasons in a row, but they may fall one starting pitcher and one more potent infield bat short of the playoffs this year.  Their strength remains in the OF – manned by consistent MVP candidate CF Andrew McCutchen, rising star LF Starling Marte and the emerging Gregory Polanco in right. The infield provides less offense – particularly if 3b Jung Ho Kang (broken leg late last season) is not ready for Opening Day. The starting rotation is led by Gerrit Cole (19-8, 2.60) and 12-game winner Francisco Liriano, but still has some question marks in the back end.  The bullpen, led by closer Mark Melancon should again be a strength.  Look for a winning season, but not a playoff spot.

Fourth Place – Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers are building for the future – and it looks to be more than a season away. The bright spots are RF Ryan Braun’s 2015 performance (.285 -25- 84,with 24 steals); LF Khris Davis’ 25+ homer power; starting pitcher Zach Davies’ potential; and Jonathan Lucroy’s improved health. The situation in Milwaukee may be best reflected in Lucroy’s off-season request to be moved to a contender.   On the mound, the rotation offers no true ace, and the bullpen (since the trade of Francisco Rodriguez) no proven closer (although it does have a number of quality arms).

 Fifth Place – Cincinnati Reds

This off-season, the Reds’ signaled their intentions for 2015, when they traded away Aroldis Chapman’s power arm and Todd Frazier’s power bat. Already gone in mid-season trades were experienced starters Johnny Cueto and Mike Leake. While the Reds rebuild, All Star 1B Joey Votto (.314-29-80) will still be worth watching.  However, fans may spend a lot of time watching him walk to first base. Last season, Votto drew a league-leading 143 walks.  With less protection in the lineup, he may surpass that total in 2016.

NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST

A tough race headed up by the Giants, with the Dodgers earning a Wild Card spot.  If the Dodgers’  incoming starting pitchers falter, the Diamondbacks could grad the Wild Card bid.

Division Title – San Francisco Giants

The Giants win the World Series in even-numbered years (see 2010-2012-2014).  Who am I to contradict the baseball Gods.  Actually, BBRT likes the Giants on the basis of: 1) the free-agent signings of starters Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija – complementing staff ace Madison Bumgarner, resurgent Jake Peavy and Chris Heston; 2) a well-balanced under-rated line up (Buster Posey, Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford, Joe Panik, Hunter Pence and more; 3) the rival Dodgers loss of Zack Greinke; and 4) the Diamondbacks’ lack of offensive depth.

 Second Place – Los Angeles Dodgers – Wild Card

They may have lost Zack Greinke, but the Dodgers still have MLB’s best pitcher in Clayton Kershaw. And, you can expect LA to get the most out of the rest of the rotation including two important off-season acquisitions – Scott Kazmir and Japanese star Kenta Maeda. The lineup looks solid, led by run-producing machine 1B Adrian Gonzalez (.275-28-90) and early Rookie of the Year favorite SS Corey Seager.  There are some questions, however, like can OF Joc Pederson retain his power and cut down on his strikeouts and just exactly what role will Yasiel Puig play.  Still, the Dodgers look to have enough to earn a Wild Card spot.

Third Place  – Arizona Diamondbacks

Anytime you can start a roster with Paul Goldscmidt (.321-33-110, with 21 steals) and free-agent signee Zack Greinke (19-3, 1.66), you’ve got something going for you.  Add five-tool CF A.J. Pollock (.315-20-76, 38 steals); LF Dave Peralta (.312-17-78, with nine steals); and number-two starter (another free-agent) Shelby Miller – and you can expect to be in the hunt.  The Diamondbacks will be there.  They just don’t seem to have the depth of the Giants or Dodgers, so – unless one of those two falter – third place seems the most realist finish.  However, if the Dodgers’ off-season acquisitions don’t deliver, the Diamondbacks could easily move past the LA squad.

Fourth Place – San Diego Padres

The Padres are rebuilding and the future looks bright – ff fans can be patient.  How focused on the future is San Diego?  In a two-day span this past November, the Padres moved  veterans Joaquin Benoit and Craig Kimbrel in trades that brought them five of their current top twenty prospects.

Fifth Place – Colorado Rockies

Lots of offense, particularly at home – and MLB’s worst earned run average. Until the Rockies can attract pitchers who can adjust to the  Coors Field factor (and actually want to pitch there), they are unlikely to contend. Still, they have foundation in players like Nolan Arenado (with 40-homer power and three Gold Gloves); 2B DJ Le Mahieu (a speedy .300 hitter with a GoldcGlove of his own); and the likes of CF Charlie Blackmon and  RF Carlos Gonzalez.

NATIONAL LEAGUE AWARD WINNERS – TOP CONTENDERS

 MVP

1. Bryce Harper, Nationals – Big (Miguel Cabrera-like) bat keeps Nationals in the race, earns him a second MVP Award.
2. Paul Goldschmidt, D-Backs – Arizona’s 1B does it all (average, power, speed) as Diamondback stay close to Giants and Dodgers; perhaps grab a playoff spot.
3. Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers – Kershaw picks up the Greinke-loss slack, leads LA to Division title.

CY Young Award

1. Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers – Best pitcher in baseball is challenged to up his game after Greinke loss, and he responds.
2. Jake Arietta, Cubs – Proves 2015 no fluke. Remember: 1^st half ERA of 2.66; 2cnd half ERA of 0.75.
3. Zack Greinke, Diamondbacks – Accepts the pressure of being number-one starter, keeps Arizona in the race.

Rookie of the Year

1. Corey Seager, Dodgers – SS retained rookie status, while hitting .337-4-17 in 27 2015 games.
2. Steven Matz, Mets – Still a rookie, Matz started six games for Mets last season, went 4-0, 2.27.
3. Jose Peraza, Reds – A long shot, but rebuilding Reds may give versatile Peraza (2B, SS, OF) a call up. He hit .293 with 33 steals at Triple A last season, and has a .302 average over five minor league seasons.

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READ ON ONLY IF YOU ARE A “FAN-ADDICT

DETAILED LOOK AT ALL NL TEAMS

NL EAST

New York Mets – First Place

The Mets solidified their bid to repeat as champions of the East when they resigned Yeonis Cespedes (in the process, keeping his bat away from the rival Nationals).  The foundation for their 2016 success, however, is their starting rotation – which may be even better in 2016.

The Mets’ rotation starts with Jacob deGrom and Matt Harvey. Twenty-seven-year-old deGrom went 14-8, with a 2.54 ERA and 205 strikeouts in 191 innings, while Harvey (in his first year back from Tommy John surgery) gave the Mets 13 wins versus eight losses, with a 2.71 ERA in 29 starts. Harvey, who will be 27 when the season opens, struck out 188 batters in 189 1/3 innings.  Twenty-three-year-old Noah Syndergaard has long been touted as a top prospect. He started last season at Triple A (3-0, 1.82), making his major league debut in mid-May.  The 6’ 6” hurler lived up to his hype and his height, going 9-7, 3.24 in 24 starts.  Syndergaard whiffed 166 batters in 150 innings. Next up is 24-year-old Steven Matz (BBRT likes low-scoring games and reviewing this Mets’ rotation is like being a kid looking over the offerings in a candy shop).  Last season, Matz went a combined 8-4, 2.05 in 19 games at High A, AA and AAA before a June call up.  For the Mets, the southpaw went 4-0, 2.27 in six starts, striking out 34 batters in 35 2/3 innings.  He threw few enough innings to retain his rookie status, and is an early Rookie of the Year favorite. The fifth starter (at least until Zack Wheeler’s expected mid-season return from Tommy John surgery) brings some truly veteran savvy to the staff.  It’s likely to be Bartolo Colon (who turns 43 in early April). The ageless Colon went 14-13, with a 4.16 ERA for the Mets last season – and had his best year at the plate, with eight hits and four RBI. Chalk one up for us oldsters.  When Wheeler (who sat out the 2015 season) comes back, he’ll be another under-thirty starter (he turns 26 in May). In 2014, Wheeler went 11-11, 3.54 and fanned 187 hitters in 184 1/3 innings. The “Young Guns Plus Bartolo” rotation is backed up by a relief corps with a pretty good arsenal of its own. Closer Jeurys Familia went 2-2, 1.85 with 43 saves in 2015, striking out better than a batter per inning. Set-up man Addison Reed notched a 3.38 ERA in 55 appearances (and could close for many teams) – and there was more support from the likes of Erik Goedell, Hansel Robles and lefty Sean Gilmartin.

Offensively, the Cespedes signing was a key. After coming over to the Mets from the Tigers in a mid-2015 trade, Cespedes hit .287, with 17 home runs and 44 RBI in 57 games (on the full season, Cespedes hit .291-35-105). Even with Cespedes’ production, the Mets’ scored the seventh-most runs in the NL and had the second-lowest batting average, so keeping his bat in the fold was critical.  While the pitching staff looks to the under-30 set to lead the way, the offense is not quite as young.  Cespedes is 30 and the Mets are also counting on offense from  34-year-old 3B David Wright (.289-5-17 in 38 games – back issues), 1B Lucas Duda (who will be thirty in February – and who went .244-27-73 last season) and RF Curtis Granderson (35 on Opening Day and .259-26-70, with 98 runs and 11 steals a year ago). At 2B, 30-year-old Neil Walker (.269-16-71 for the Pirates) replaces departed (free agency) post-season hero Daniel Murphy. You can expect to see free-agent signee Asdrubel Cabrera (also 30-years-old) at SS.  Cabrera was .265-15-58 for the Rays last season.  The addition of Cabrera and Walker adds flexibility to the Mets’ lineup, as last year’s starting SS, Wilmer Flores (.263-16-58), should see plenty of playing time at 2B, 3B and SS. Travis d’Arnaud (.268-12-41 in 67 games) should be behind the plate as long as his health holds up.  Last season d’Arnaud suffered through a broken hand (hit by pitch) and elbow injury (home plate collision).  The final lineup spot (LF) likely will be contested by Michael Conforto, Juan Lagares and Alejandro De Aza, with Conforto BBRT’s expected winner. Any of these three could also be packaged in a trade.

Ultimately, the Mets have more than enough pitching – and, with Cespedes on board, just enough offense to repeat as East Division Champions.

Washington Nationals – Second Place

As the 2015 season opened, the Washington Nationals were the defending AL East Champions (having won the Division by a 17-game margin in 2014), were led by 2014 NL Manager of the Year Matt Williams, had added 2013 AL Cy Young Award winner Max Scherzer to their staff and were odds-on favorites to repeat.  Then, RF Bryce Harper went on to capture the 2015 NL MVP award, Scherzer threw two no-hitters, the team led the East in runs scored and allowed the second-fewest runs in the Division – and still finished second to the NY Mets, costing Williams his job.  With Washington’s lack of success in the off-season market place  (they missed on Jason Heyward, Ben Zobrist and Cespedes), it appears another second place finish is in store in 2016. .

Don’t get me wrong, there is plenty of talent on this team – if they can stay healthy. The Nationals opened the 2015 season with six players on the Disabled List – and that proved a portent of thing to come. It was a tough year with such key players as 1B Ryan Zimmerman, 3B Anthony Rendon, LF Jayson Werth, now-departed CF Denard Span and number-two starter Stephen Strasburg all spending time on the DL – and the Nationals still finished just seven games behind the Mets.

The Nats are hoping for better health (and results) in 2016. Their opportunity to make up ground on the Mets starts with the pitching staff – and it’s a good one, headed by  Scherzer (14-12, 2.79 with 276 strikeouts in 228 2/3 innings) and Strasburg (11-7, 3.46, with 155 whiffs in 127 1/3 innings, but only 23 starts).  Behind these two, there are southpaw Gio Gonzalez 11-8, 3.79), Tanner Roark (4-7, 4.38, but just one season removed from 15-10, 2.85) and youngster Joe Ross (5-5. 3.64 after an early June MLB debut).  It’s a staff that would be the envy of many teams, just not the Mets. The Nationals clearly will miss Jordan Zimmerman (13-10. 3.66 last season – and 46-24 for Washington over the past three seasons), who signed as a free agent with Detroit.  (Payback for Washington’s free-agent signing of former-Tiger Scherzer?)

The bullpen appears solid, with closer Jonathan Papelbon (2.13 ERA, 24 saves in 26 opportunities) back, supported by (among others) Felipe Rivero (2.79 in 49 games), Blake Treinen (3.86 in 60 games) and free-agent signee Yusmeiro Petit (3.67 in 42 games for the Giants). The real question in the pen may be whether last season’s Papelbon/Harper dust-up has been put behind them.

On a positive note, it appears things have calmed in the clubhouse. The Nationals indicated confidence in Papelbon with the trade of Drew Storen (29 saves in 2015) to the Blue Jays for CF/lead-off hitter Ben Revere (.306-2-45, with 84 runs and 31 steals).  Of course, the key to the offense is 2015 MVP Bryce Harper – just 23 and entering his fifth MLB season. In 2015, Harper delivered the season the Nationals have been waiting for (.330-42-99). Additional power should be provided by veterans 1B Ryan Zimmerman (.249-16-73 in just 95 games a year ago) and LF Jayson Werth (.221-12-42 in 88 games). Youngster Anthony Rendon (25-years-old), going into just his fourth MLB season, fought through injuries in 2015 and hit .264 with five home runs and 25 RBI in 80 games.  In 2015, he played a full season and went .287-21-83. The Nationals could use that healthy production. Free-agent signee (Mets) Daniel Murphy (.281-14-73 last year) will take over as 2B, while Danny Espinosa (.240-13-37) returns to handle SS (at least until prospect Trea Turner, who hit .322 at Double and Triple A last year, is ready). Wilson Ramos provides bottom of the order pop (.229-15-68) at catcher.

Overall, the Nationals have talent and they’ll again give the Mets a run for their money.  Too many things, however, have to fall into place for them to take the Division title.  Before the Cespedes signing, BBRT saw the NL East as a toss-up. Cespedes give the Mets the edge they need – offensively and, perhaps, psychologically – to hold off the Nationals in a close race.

Miami Marlins – Third Place

In 2015, the Marlins finished 29^th among MLB’s 30 teams in runs scored, home runs, RBI and total bases. (Fortunately for them, the team that finished dead last in those categories, Atlanta, plays in the same division.)  Despite the dismal offense and disappointing attendance (28^th in MLB and lowest in the NL), there is some interesting baseball to see in Miami.

RF Giancarlo Stanton is a premier power hitter (his home runs are frequent and far, despite the reputation of Marlins Park for swallowing long balls.)  The former NL HR champion hit 27 home runs in just 74 games last season (broken hand) and is touted as MLB’s next 50-homer player. Dee Gordon is a speed merchant (NL stolen base leader the last two seasons), who captured the 2014 NL batting championship.  Jose Fernandez is a former Rookie of the Year and projects as a future Cy Young Award winner if healthy (he’s already had Tommy John Surgery). Last year, Fernandez went 6-1, 2.92 in 11 starts). Gordon and SS Adeiny Hechavarria provide highlight reel defense up the middle. Gordon earned a Gold Glove last season and Hechavarria was a finalist. Still, the lineup does have holes, particularly in the power department, and the pitching staff appears thin.

The top of the batting order is solid. Leading off is Gordon (who won the NL batting title at .333, led the league in hits with 205 and also topped the NL in steals at 58). Batting second is 3B Martin Prado, a steady MLB hitter (.288-9-63 in 2015), with a 291 career average (10 seasons). There is, however, little protection for Stanton in the middle of the line-up. Surrounding the long-ball specialist are LF Christian Yelich, who hit .300 in 126 games, but only notched seven home runs and 44 RBI) and CF Marcell Ozuna (.259-10-44).  At the bottom of the order, it looks to be 1B Justin Bour (.262-23-73), catcher J.T.  Realmuto (.259-10-47) and SS Hechavarria (a decent bat at .281-5-48).

Moving to the mound, there’s a notable drop off after Fernandez. Among the likely starters are Tom Koehler (11-14, 4.08) and Jarred Cosart (2-5, 4.52 in 13 starts, but a 13-game winner in 2014).  The rotation also may include a couple of young southpaws who made their major league debut with the Marlins this past June: Adam Conley (who was 9-3, 2.52 at Triple A; and then 4-1, 3.76 for the Marlins) and Justin Nicolino (7-7, 3.52 at Triple A; 5-4, 4.01 for the Marlins).  Also in the mix are veterans Edwin Jackson and Brad Hand. The bullpen is led by capable closer A.J. Ramos (2.30 ERA with 32 saves), supported by Carter Capps (1.16 in 30 games), Mike Dunn (4.50 in 72 games) and Bryan Morris (3.14 in 67 appearances).

Baseball in Miami should be interesting – from Jose Fernandez’ live arm to Giancarlo Stanton’s power bat to the speed and defense of Dee Gordon.  There’s just not enough depth to compete with the Mets and Nationals.  BBRT sees another third-place finish for the Marlins.

Philadelphia Phillies – Fourth Place

How times have changed. In 2011, the Phillies went 102-60 and outscored the opposition by 183 runs. In 2015, the Phillies went 63-99 and were outscored by 184 runs.  That pretty much sums up the recent direction of the now-rebuilding Phillies.

A big question for the 2016 Phillies is how many games will Ryan Howard play?  Going back to 2011, Howard hit .253, with 33 home runs and 116 RBI – his sixth straight season of 30+ HR and 100+ RBI.  In 2015, Howard hit .229-23-77 – his fourth straight campaign of less than 25 HRs and less than 100 RBI. At this point speculation is that Howard will share 1B and a spot in the middle of the lineup with Darin Ruf (.235-12-39 in 106 games.). Third base and a spot in the 3-, 4- or 5-hole seems to be reserved for 23-year-old Maikel Franco, who looked solid in 2015 (.280-14-50 in 80 games). Franco, in fact, may be the best hitter on this team. Second base could go to Cesar Hernandez (.272-1-35 with 19 steals), although there has  been talk of converting 23-year-old CF Odubel Herrera (.297-8-41, 16 steals) to the keystone sack.  Herrera, a former Rule 5 pick-up, looks to be part of the future for the rebuilding Phillies wherever he plays. If that should be second base, Hernandez can be a valuable utility man for this team. He made his MLB debut last year, after running up a .294 average in six minor league seasons. Shortstop should be handled by Freddy Galvis (.263-7-50), with Cameron Rupp (.233-9-28) and Carlos Ruiz (.211-2-22 in 86 games) again splitting the catching.  Before the year is out, we may see top prospect J.P Crawford at SS. At this point, the outfield appears unsettled.  If Herrera moves to 2B, the likely OF starters are Peter Bourjos (.200-4-13) in CF; flanked at times by flycatchers drawn from: Aaron Altherr (.241-5-22 in 39 games); Cody Asche (.245-12-39); and, possibly, Rule 5 draftee Tyler Goeddel (.279-12-72, with 28 steals at Double A).Twenty-two-year-old  Nick Williams  could also get a long look (although he may need more seasoning), after going .303-17-55 in two Double A stops last season.

Going to the mound, we see much the same story.  In 2011, the Phillies had the NL’s lowest ERA at 3.02. Last season, they were 14^th in the NL at 4.69 (only Colorado was worse at 5.04).  The rotation will be led Jeremy Hellickson (9-12, 4.62 for the D-Backs last season) and Charlie Morton (9-9, 4.81 for the Pirates).  There are also indications some youthful help might be on the way.  Available from the start of the season will be 22-year-old Aaron Nola (6-2, 3.59 in 13 starts after a July debut; 10-4, 2.39 at Double A/Triple A) and 25-year-old Jerad Eickhoff (3-3, 2.65 after an August call up; 12-5, 3.85 at Double A/Triple A). Southpaw Adam Morgan (5-7, 4.48 could grab the fifth spot), with competition from Brent Oberholtzer and Vincent Velasquez (who both came over, in a trade, from the Astros).  With Ken Giles gone, there is no proven closer on board, so we may say plenty of auditions for ninth-inning role, with speculation focusing on David Hernandez (4.28 in 40 games with Arizona), Luis Garcia (3.51 in 72 appearances) and Jeanmar  Gomez (3.01 in 65 games). Once a closer is selected the rest of the bullpen roles should fall into place.

The Phillies are working to stock the prospect pipeline and, as they rebuild, fourth place seems the most realistic outcome.

 Atlanta Braves – Fifth Place

Like the Phillies, the Braves’ are in a rebuilding mode.  This off season, they traded shortstop wizard Andrelton Simmons, OF Cameron Maybin and starting pitcher Shelby Miller. Already gone were such names as Jason Heyward, Justin Upton, Craig Kimbrel and Evan Gattis.  Where is Atlanta going?  To a new stadium in 2017 – and to a new, youthful line-up (hopefully, by that same year). In the meantime, wins may be scarce, as the returns from recent trade activity mature in the minors.

The offense – which last year finished dead last in MLB in runs, home runs, RBI, and total bases may be improved a bit. At the top of the order, you’ll find 25-year-old CF Ender Inciarte, picked up in the Shelby Miller trade. Inciarte looks like a good long-term investment. He hit .303, with 6 home runs, 45 RBI and 21 steals in 2015.   The primary power source remains 1B Freddie Freeman (.276-18-66 in an injury-dampened season – 118 games).  Freeman’s “protection” in the lineup comes in the form of a pair of players who were 30-year-old rookies last season. First, there is 3B Adonis Garcia (.277-10-26 in 58 games). Adonis, a switch-hitter, made his MLB debut last season and despite only 191 at bats was second on the Braves in home runs). You just have to root for a guy who hangs around to be a 30-year-old rookie – and who is named Adonis.  Then there is September call-up Hector Olivera – who played for six minor league teams (Rookie League, A, AA, AAA) before his late-season MLB debut with the Braves.  For Atlanta, Oliveras – who showed solid power in Cuba – hit .253 with two home runs and 11 RBI in 24 games. It appears the Braves may be intent on converting the former infielder to a corner OF spot.  The other OF position will likely go to veteran returnee Nick Markakis, who hit .296-3-53 a year ago. Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn provide depth. Other likely starters include Erik Aybar (.270-3-44, with 15 steals for the Angels) at SS, Jace Peterson (.239-6-52) at 2B and the steady A.J.  Pierzynski (.300-9-49) behind the plate. It would not be surprising, however, to see some new faces emerge if any of these falter.

The starting rotation is in better shape than the offense.  It will be led by Julio Teheran (11-8, 4.04 last season and a 14-game winner, with a 2.89 ERA, in 2014). Twenty-three-year old Matt Wisler may slot in at number-two after going 8-8, 4.71 in 19 starts.  Newcomer Bud Norris had a tough 2015 (3-11, 6.72 with the Orioles and Padres), but is just one season removed from a 15-win campaign. Others in the mix are Williams Perez (7-6, 4.78), southpaw Manny Banuelos (1-4, 5.13; 6-2, 2.23 at Triple A) and Mike Foltynewicz (4-6, 5.71).  The bullpen will be led by expected closer Arodys Vizcaino (3-1, 1.60 with nine saves in 10 opportunities) and a potential cast of many.

All in all, it looks like a long season for Braves fans. I’d suggest following the progress of such players prospects as SS Dansby Swanson, LHP Sean Newcomb and RHP Aaron Blair.

NL CENTRAL

Chicago Cubs – First Place

It’s been a long time since Cubs’ fans have had it this good. Coming off a 97-win season – fueled a young and powerful line-up, Cy Young Award winner Jake Arrieta and a solid bullpen led by closer Hector Rondon (along with Justin Grimm, Pedro Strop and Travis Wood) – the Cubs didn’t sit on their laurels.  In the off season, they improved their lineup and their pitching, while also adding depth and versatility.

Consider the lineup.  In the middle, the Cubbies return 2015 Rookie of the Year, 24-year-old Kris Bryant (.275-26-99, 13 steals) at third base; proven power source, 25-year-old Anthony Rizzo  (.278-31-101; 86 HR’s in the past three seasons) at 1B; and 23-year-old Kyle Schwarber (.246-16-43 after a mid-June call up) in LF.  Setting the table from the one and two spots are a pair of free-agent signees – CF Jason Heyward (Gold Glove defense and .293, with 16 HRs and 23 steals, for the Cardinals a year ago – and a chance to improve in hitter-friendly Wrigley) and Ben Zobrist (.276, with 13 HRs, for Oakland and KC last season) at 2B.  Rounding out the line-up should be returnees Miguel Montero at C, Jorge Soler in RF and Addison Russell at SS. Overall, the Cubs’ lineup could be one of the top two or three in the NL.  And there’s plenty of depth.  Schwarber can catch and play outfield; Zobrist can play 2B, 3B and OF; and the bench has plenty of quality with the likes of Javier Baez (2B-SS), Chris Coghlin (OF) and Tony La Stella (2B-3B). Manager Joe Maddon clearly has plenty of room and resources to maneuver.

On the mound, Cy Young winner Jake Arrieta (22-6, 1.77) will again lead the way. The number-two spot appears in good hands with southpaw Jon Lester (11-12, 3.34 – only one season removed from a 16-11, 2.46 campaign). The Cubs raided the division-rival Cardinals for their number-three starter, free-agent signee John Lackey (13-10. 2.77 for the Redbirds).  The end of the rotation – 10-game winner Jason Hammel and eight-game winner Kyle Hendriks should hold its own.  If any of these should falter, Adam Warren (acquired from the Yankees for Starlin Castro) is ready to step in. If not, Warren joins a strong bullpen (fourth-lowest NL bullpen ERA last season), headed by closer Hector Rondon (6-4, 1.67 with 30 saves). 

Saint Louis Cardinals – Second Place (Wild Card)

The Cardinals were the only MLB team to win 100 games a year ago – and still ended the season with the Cubs and Pirates both within three games.  Then they saw the 97-victory Cubs sign away Cardinals’ free-agents Jason Heyward and John Lackey and also lost number-two starter Lance Lynn to Tommy John surgery.   Still, Saint Louis has a capable lineup, a solid rotation and a “plus” bullpen.  They will be in the hunt.  BBRT just doesn’t think they have enough to hold off the Cubs.

The power for the Cardinals starts at the top, with veteran lead-off hitter and 3B Matt Carpenter, who hit .272-28-84 last season (while also scoring 101 runs).  While it’s Carpenter’s first season of more than 11 round trippers, he also led the NL with 44 doubles, so 20 home runs seems sustainable.  The number-two spot will likely go to RF Steve Piscotty (who was hitting .272 with 11 HRs at Triple A when called up in June). Piscotty delivered a .305-7-39 line in 63 games for the Cardinals. In the middle of the order are CF Randy Grichuk, LF Matt Holliday and SS Jhonny Peralta.  Grichuk showed power potential in the minors (hitting 25 HRs in 108 games at Triple A in 2014). Last season, Grichuk went .276-17-47 in 103 games for Saint Louis. Cleanup hitter Holliday managed only 73 games a year ago (quadriceps) and went .279-4-35. A healthy Holliday should be a dependable (15-20 HR) power source.  Last season was the first time since 2005 that he has failed to reach 20 home runs and the first time since 2004 that he has driven in less than 75.  Peralta (.275-17-71 a year ago) provides a steady glove and bat in the middle of the diamond.  The lineup is rounded out by 2B Kolten Wong (.262-11-61, 15 steals) and the likely platoon of Brandon Moss and Matt Adams at 1B (both have shown decent power in the past).  Catcher may prove a trouble spot, since seven-time All Star and eight-time Gold Glover Yadier Molina had a pair of off-season thumb surgeries. A healthy Molina provides MLB’s best defense behind the plate, a solid bat (.283 career average) and on-field leadership.  It looks like, at least early in the season, backup backstop free-agent signee Bryan Pena (Reds) will see plenty of playing time.  Pena hit .273-0-18 in 108 games last season. While they weren’t especially active in the off season, the Cardinals did pick up free-agent utility player Jedd Gyorko (.247-16-57 for the Padres), who can play anywhere in the infield.

Despite the loss of Lance Lynn (Tommy John surgery) and John Lackey (free agent), the pitching looks solid.  Number-one starter Adam Wainwright (who missed most of 2015 – Achilles tendon) appears healthy. In 2013-14, Wainwright went 39-18, 2.67) – and, remember, the Cardinals won 100 games last season, when Wainwright won just two (2-1, 1.61 in a handful of late-season appearances). Returning to the rotation are lefty Jaime Garcia (10-6, 2.43), Carlos Martinez (14-7, 3.01) and Michael Wacha (17-7, 3.38). Replacing Lance Lynn (12-11, 3.03 last season) is free-agent signee Mike Leake (11-10, 3.70 for the Reds and Giants). The bullpen had a 2.83 ERA last year (contributing to the Cardinals’ MLB-lowest 2.94 overall ERA) and will be strong again. Closer Trevor Rosenthal (2-4, 2.10, with 48 saves in 51 opportunities, will be supported by the likes of southpaw Kevin Siegrist, Seth Maness and Jonathan Broxton.  The Cards may have bolstered the pen with the signing of Korean star Seung Hwan Oh, who had a 1.81 ERA over 11 seasons in Korea and Japan.

It looks to BBRT like the Cardinals will have the pitching to compete and the offense to make the playoffs (as a Wild Card) – they just don’t seem to have the depth or versatility to hold off the Cubs for the Division title.

Pittsburgh Pirates – Third Place

The Pirates won 98 games a year ago – and still finished second to the Cardinals. And while the Pirates will field a strong squad again in 2015 – they’ve made the playoffs in each of the past three seasons – BBRT expects the Bucco’s to fall just short (short by one quality starter and a bit more offense from the infield) of the playoffs this season).

The strength of the Pirates resides in the outfield – manned by Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte (gotta love that name) and the still improving Gregory Polanco.  The key to the Pirates’ success is CF McCutchen – a five-time All Star and 2013 NL MVP.  In an injury-dampened “off” season in 2015, McCutchen provided “plus” defense, a .293 average, 23 HR, 96 RBI and 11 steals. The Pirates expect even more in 2016.  LF Marte  will likely bat fourth (and provide protection for McCutchen).  Last season, Marte went .287-19-81, with 30 steals – this follows a 2014 line of .291-13-56, with 30 steals. Clearly, Marte will continue as an offensive force.  2015 was 24-year-old RF Polanco’s first full MLB season and he wasn’t overmatched (.256-16-85, with 27 steals). Polanco should lead off and likely improve on his 2014 numbers. Around the infield, the potential is not as strong.  First base looks like a platoon between Michael Morse (.231-5-19 in 98 games) and free-agent signee John Jaso (.286-5-22 in 70 games for Tampa Bay). At second base, Josh Harrison replaces the popular Neil Walker (traded to the Mets). Harrison hit .287 in 114 games a year ago (just four home runs, however, as compared to Walker’s 16). Third base could be a power source – depending on how well Jung Ho Kang rebounds from a leg injury suffered late last season.  At the time, the 28-year-old rookie (Korean All Star) was hitting .287, with 15 home runs. Returning at the final two sports are SS Jody Mercer (.244-3-34) and catcher Francisco Cervelli (.295-7-43).  The Pirates do have some depth, backup outfield Sean Rodriguez (.246-4-17) can also play 2B and 3B, Jaso can handle a corner outfield spot and Harrison could slide over to 3B.

The pitching staff is led by Gerrit Cole (19-8, 2.60) and southpaw Francisco Liriano (12-7, 3.38), but has some question marks at the back end of the rotation. Left-hander Jeff Locke (8-11, 4.49) returns, but Pittsburgh lost J.A. Happ (free agency), who went 7-2, 1.61 for the Pirates after being acquired last July.  The Pirates worked to fill in their rotation gaps with the Walker trade (for lefty Jon Neise, 9-10. 4.13, with the Mets) and the signing of free-agent Ryan Vogelsong (9-11, 4.67 with the Giants). While there are question marks in the rotation, the bullpen – which boasted the NL’s lowest ERA (2.67) last season – should again be a strength.   Mark Melancon (3-2, 2.23, with 51 saves) will close . He’ll be supported by the likes of left-hander Tony Watson (1.91 ERA in 77 games) and Jared Hughes (2.28 in 76 games).

The Pirates should put a winning record on the board again this season, but they play in a tough division and third place looks like an appropriate expectation. 

Milwaukee Brewers – Fourth Place

2015 was a tough season for Brewer fans – and 2015 doesn’t look to be much better.  The Brewers are rebuilding and the future is probably more than a season or two away. Among the bright spots for the Brewers are RF Ryan Braun’s .285-25-84 production (with 24 stolen bases), C Jonathan  Lucroy’s improved health, underrated LF Khris Davis’ power (.247-27-66 in 121 games) and Zach Davies’ performance after his September call-up (3-2, 3.61 in six starts). But there is another side to the coin even for those highlights.  Braun had back surgery after the season (although it appears he will be ready for Opening Day) and Lucroy has indicated a desire to move on to a contender.  So, what can fans expect from the Brew Crew – besides a fourth-place finish?

The middle of the lineup should include Braun, plus Davis and free-agent signee 1B Chris Carter (.199-24-64). Setting the table for this group are likely to be returning 2B Scooter Gennett (.264-6-29) at the lead-off spot and, perhaps, Lucroy at number-two. CF Domingo Santana showed a bit of pop last season –  .238-8-26 in 50 games.  The bottom of the order is likely to include returning SS Jean Segura (.257-6-50, 25 SB) and new 3B Jonathan Villar (.284-2-22, 7 steals in 53 games for the Astros).  Brewers’ fans may see SS prospect Orlando Arcia sometime during the season – Arcia went .307-8-69, with 25 SB, at AA in 2015.

On the mound, there may be some promise.  An all right-handed rotation should include Davies (who could build off that successful late season call up), as well as Taylor Jungmann, who made his MLB debut last June and went 9-8, 3.77.  Also in the mix are Wily Peralta (5-10, 4.72), Jimmy Nelson (11-13, 4.11) and veteran Matt Garza (6-15, 5.62).  In the wings are Jorge Lopez (who went 12-5, 2.26 at AA last season, but gave up 14 hits and five walks in ten September innings for the Brewers) and Ariel Pena (2-1, 4.28 in a late-season call up).  The bullpen, which will likely get plenty of work, has some capable arms in southpaw Will Smith (2.70 ERA in 76 appearances), Jeremy Jeffress (2.65 in 72 games), Michael Blazek (2.43 in 45 games) and Corey Knebel (3.22 in 48 games).  A closer needs to emerge (the Brewers traded closer Francisco Rodriguez to the Tigers), and the most likely candidates appear to be Smith and Jeffress.

Cincinnati Reds – Fifth Place

The Reds, like the Brewers, are rebuilding, which is why fans at the Great American Ballpark won’t be seeing Aroldis Chapman’s power arm or Todd Frazier’s powerful bat (both traded away) this coming season. It’s also why the Reds are likely to find themselves fighting with the Brewers for fourth place in the NL Central.

Still, there will be some highlights.  Expect another strong season from 1B Joey Votto – a four-time All Star and 2010 MVP.  Last season, Votto put up his standard .314-29-80 stat line, and added 11 stolen bases.  This is all without much protection in the line-up, as evidenced by Votto’s NL-leading 143 walks.  Votto, in fact, has led the NL in walks in four of the past five seasons.  With Frazier’s 30-HR power gone, Votto may draw even more free passes.  The middle of the Reds’ lineup is also likely to include RF Jay Bruce (.226-26-87) and C Devin Morasco, who came into his own in 2014, hitting .273, with 25 home runs and 80 RBI, but missed nearly all of last season with a sore hip that eventually required surgery.  There is a veteran presence at the top of the line-up in lead-off hitter SS Zack Cozart, coming back from a torn tendon and ligaments (.258-9-28 in 53 games) and 2B Brandon Phillips (.294-12-70). Phillips could also slot into the lead-off role.  CF belongs to Billy Hamilton , who brings defense and speed (57 steals), but hit only .226 (.274 on base percentage) a year ago. Eugenio Suarez is likely to hold down Frazier’s 3B spot. Suarez hit .280, with 13 home runs, in 97 games a year ago.  We could see competition for the final outfield spot in Spring Training among Adam Duvall, Scott Schebler and Jesse Winkler. Also in the mix for an infield or utility spot is prospect Jose Peraza.  Peraza and Schebler both came over in Frazier trade – and both have considerable upside.

If resources look at little thin at the plate, the rotation may be thinner – particularly when you weigh experience.  The Reds, in fact, went with an all-rookie rotation over the last couple month of the 2015 season. (Experienced starters Johnny Cueto and Mike Leake were traded mid-season, while Homer Bailey succumbed to Tommy John surgery.) Bailey isn’t expected to be ready on Opening Day, so the starting staff is likely to be Anthony DeSclafani (9-13, 4.05); Raisell Iglesias (3-7, 4.15); lefty John Lamb (1-5, 5.80); Jon Moscot (1-1, 4.63); southpaw Brandon Finnegan (5-2, 3.56).  These five have a total of 69 career MLB starts among them. Look for a tough learning curve, particularly in the hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark.  With the Chapman trade, bullpen roles will need to be adjusted.  The new closer may be J.J. Hoover (8-2, 2.94 in 67 games), although BBRT is rooting for 6’4”, 280-pound Jumbo Diaz (2-1, 4.18 in 61 games, but with 70 strikeouts in 60 1/3 innings). Also likely in the pen are Carlos Contreras (0-0, 4.82 in 22 appearances), lefty Tony Cingrani (0-3, 5.67 in 35 games) and Mike Lorenzen (4-9, 5.40 in 27 games, 21 starts).

Ultimately, it’s too early in the rebuilding process to expect much – and (given the state of the pitching staff) the Reds seem likely to lose the fourth-place battle to the Brewers.

NL WEST

San Francisco Giants – First Place

Tough call – should be a close race among the Giants, Dodgers and Diamondbacks. The Giants, however, were World Series Champs in 2010, 2012 and 2014 – and who am I to anger the baseball Gods or defy even-year irony. Actually, I like the Giants to take the Division based on: 1) their free-agent signings (Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija); 2) a balanced and largely underrated lineup; 3) the Dodgers’ loss of 2014 Cy Young winner Zack Grienke; and 4) the Diamondback’s lack of offensive depth.

Let’s start with the pitching staff. The Giants lost three members of their starting rotation – Tim Lincecum and Ryan Vogelsong to free agency and Tim Hudson to retirement. Those three went 24-24, and pitched a combined 335 innings to a 4.46 ERA. In response, the Giants signed free agents Johnny Cueto (Royals) and Jeff Samardzija (White Sox) – who last season went a combined 22-26, with an ERA of 4.20 in 426 innings.  (Cueto also is just one season removed from his 2014 twenty-win campaign.)  Both pitchers should benefit from a more pitcher-friendly park and a better lineup (Cueto started with the Reds last season). Notably, neither  Cueto nor Samardzija will be expected to lead the staff.  The number-one rotation spot goes to lefty Madison Bumgarner, a true “ace” who went 18-9, 2.93 with 234 strikeouts in 218 1/3 innings (numbers almost identical to his 2014 stats of 18-10, 2.98). Cueto will be slotted in at number-two.  And, there is plenty of talent to choose from for the three-through-five slots, including: Samardzija; Jake Peavy, who went 8-6, 3.58 in 19; Chris Heston (12-11, 3.95); and Matt Cain, injury plagued the past couple of seasons, but a three-time All Star.  The bullpen should also be a strength, thanks to manager Bruce Bochy’s acknowledged ability to put relievers in situations where they can succeed. Santiago Casilla (4-2, 2.79 with 38 saves) will lead the pen, with support from the likes of Sergio Romo (2.98 in 70 appearances), Javier Lopez (1.60 in 77 games), George Kontos (2.33 in 73 games) and Hunter Strickland (2.45 in 55 games).

You’ll find bigger names in some NL line-ups, but the Giants have plenty of players who will give you quality at bats.  2012 MVP (catcher) Buster Posey is at the heart of the attack and is coming off a typical Posey season (.318-19-95). Joining Posey in the middle of the line are a couple of underrated hitters (at least in BBRT’s opinion), 1B Brandon Belt (.280-18-68, with nine steals) and RF Hunter Pence (.275-9-40 in 52 games – fractured forearm and wrist tendonitis). Pence will be joined in the outfield by a combination drawn from Denard Span (.301-5-22 , with 11 steals in 61 games for the Nationals), Angel Pagan (.262-3-37, 12 steals) and George Blanco (.291-5-26, 13 steals). In the infield, Belt’s steady power is complemented by 2B Joe Panik (.312, with eight home runs), SS Brandon Crawford (.256-21-84) and 3B Matt Duffy, who – in his first full MLB season – hit .295, with 12 home runs, 77 RBI and 12 steals in 12 attempts.

A solid, well-balanced line up, quality rotation and well-managed bullpen should bring the Giants home in first place.

Dodgers – Second Place

Ouch! You lose half of perhaps MLB’s best one-two pitching punch – and to a division rival. For a team that has always been known for its pitching, that can make for a long season. Still the Dodgers do have arguably the best pitcher in baseball in Clayton Kershaw, and they managed to sign Scott Kazmir to help fill the Greinke hole. They also have a solid closer in Kenley Jansen, a Rookie of the Year favorite in SS Corey Seager and a consistent run producer in 1B Adrian Gonzalez.  BBRT see that as enough to hold off the surging Diamondbacks, but not enough to take down the Giants.

Let’s start with the rotation – right at the top is every pre-season’s Cy Young favorite, lefty Clayton Kershaw. Last season, in what some might call a “down” year, Kershaw went 16-7, 2.13 – with 301 strikeouts in 232 2/3 innings. Sorry, MLB batsmen, but Kershaw will be back for his 30+ starts.  In the number-two slot is free-agent signee lefty Scott Kazmir (7-11, but with a solid 3.10 ERA for the A’s and Astros last season). The remainder of the rotation looks to come from among southpaw Brett Anderson (10-9, 3.69), lefty Alex Wood (12-12, 3.84 with the Braves and Dodgers), recently signed  Kenta Maeda (97-67, 2.39 in eight seasons in Japan) and lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu (who missed last season due to shoulder surgery, but went 14-7,3.38 for the Dodgers in 2014). In short, even without Grienke, this is a quality rotation.  Behind closer Kenley Jansen (2-1, 2.41, with 30 saves and 80 strikeouts in 52 1/3 innings) and J.P. Howell (6-1, 1.43 in 65 games) in the pen are Chris Hatcher (3.69 ERA in 49 games), Luis Avilan (4.05 in 73 games), Pedro Baez (3.35 in 52 games), and Carlos Frias (4.06 in 17 games/13 starts).

Moving to the line-up, 1B Adrian Gonzalez is the big bat (.275-28-90) in the middle of an order that produced the most home runs in the NL last season (187) – but also only the eighth-highest runs total.  Still, the Dodger outscored the opposition  667-595. With Greinke gone, however, they may need a little more production. That may come from a group of youngsters including: 21-year-old SS Corey Seager, who hit .337-4-17 in 27 games after a late season call-up and is the early Rookie of the Year Favorite; 23-year-old CF Joc Pederson, who hit 26 home runs a year ago, but needs to cut down on his strikeouts (he hit just .210 and whiffed 170 times in 151 games); and 25-year-old Yasiel Puig (.255-11-38, recurring hamstring issue), who has a .294 average with 46 home runs in 331 major league games.  Joining Puig and Pederson in the OF mix are 34-year-old Carl Crawford (.265-4-16 in 69 games) and 33-year-old Andre Either (.294-14-53). Filling out the order are 31-year-old 3B Justin Turner (.294-16-60, coming off knee surgery), 2B 37-year-old Chase Utley  (.212-8-39) and C Yasmil Grandal (.234-16-47).

Diamondbacks – Third Place

Okay, the D-backs have some ground to make up – 13 games behind the Dodgers and five behind the Giants in 2015.  They got a good start on closing those gaps when they signed free-agent starter Zack Greinke (19-3, 1.66 for the Division-rival Dodgers last season). They also added Shelby Miller in a trade with the Braves.  Miller was 6-17 with the Braves, who lost 95 games a year ago, but his 3.02 ERA and 205 innings pitched say more about his ability. (In 2013-14, he went 25-18 for the Cardinals with a 3.41 ERA.) With these two, the rotation is off to a good start. Couple that with an offense centered around MVP candidate Paul Goldschmidt (.321-33-110, with 21 stolen bases) – and things should be interesting in Arizona.

What might surprise you most about the D-Backs is the-line up.  A.J. Pollock is likely to lead off – bringing power and speed (.315-20-76, with 39 steals). The D-Backs get a similar combination from LF David Peralta (.312-17-78, with nine steals). The D-Backs also expect good things from Yasmany Tomas.  Last year, his rookie season, Tomas hit .273, with nine homers, 48 RBI and five steals in 118 games – shuttling primarily between RF and 3B. This season right field should be his.  Third base likely goes to Jake Lamb (.263 with six homers in 107 games);  2B to Chris Owings (.227 with four homers in 147 games; and SS to Nick Ahmed (.226, with nine home runs in 134 games). Arizona could use a bit more offense out of that trio. Catcher Wellington Castillo appears to have found a home in Arizona, his third team last season.  In 80 games for the D-Backs, Castillo hit .255 with 17 long balls.

On the mound, Greinke and Miller will lead the rotation.  They will likely be followed by Rubby De La Rosa (14-9, 4.67) and Patrick Corbin (who had Tommy John surgery and missed the 2014 season before going 6-5, 3.60 in sixteen 2015 starts). Corbin was 14-8, 3.41 in 2013. Top candidates for the final rotation spot include lefty Robbie Ray (5-12, 3.52) and right-hander Chase Anderson (6-6. 4.30).

The bullpen will be led by 36-year-old Brad Zeigler (1.85 ERA, with 30 saves).  Zeigler is not your typical closer – notching only 36 strikeouts in 68 innings – but he has a 2.47 ERA over eight MLB seasons. Setting up Ziegler will be: Daniel Hudson (3.86 in 54 games); John Collmenter (3.79 in 44 games); Matt Reynolds (4.61 in 18 games); and Randall Delgado (3.25 in 64 games).

Overall, the Diamondbacks are putting a quality team on the field.  However, they may be a little short on depth and have little margin for error or injury.  Still, I wouldn’t bet against them to make the post-season.

San Diego Padres – Fourth Place

Going into the 2016 season, Padres’ fans need patience and a prospect list, as the team has intensified its focus on building from ground (youth) up. For example, in a two-day span in November, the Padres shipped quality reliever Joaquin Benoit to Seattle for prospects RHP Enyel De Los Santsos and IF Nelson Ward, and then moved elite closer Craig Kimbrel to the Red Sox for OF Manuel Margot, SS Javier Guerra, 2B/3B Carlos Asuaje and LHP Logan Allen. Five of those six are now ranked among the Padres’ farm systems’ top-20: Margot (1); Guerra (3); De Los Santos (15); Allen (19); and Asuaje (20).  2018 looks like a very good year in San Diego.  2016, not as good.

The heart of the 2015 lineup should be comprised of RF Matt Kemp (.265-23-100, 12 steals), 3B Yangveris Solarte (.270-14-63) and catcher Derek Norris (.250-14-62).  The rest of the line-up is a less settled. At the top, we will most likely see a pair of hitters recovering from wrist issues: 1B Wil Myers (.253-8-29, with five steals in 60 games) and LF Jon Jay (.210-1-19 in 79 games for the Cardinals).  Myers, the 2013 AL Rookie of the Year, has played in only 147 games over the past two seasons. If healthy, he does have the potential for double-digit home runs and a respectable average. Jay, who will be 30 when the season opens may have the most immediate upside of the pair.  In six MLB seasons, he has a .287 average and is known as a solid defender.  Candidates for the lower end of the lineup include: 2B Cory Spangenberg (.271-4-21, nine steals), free-agent signee SS Alexei Ramirez (.249-10-62 for the White Sox) and CF Melvin Upton (.259-9-17).  There is also a good chance that Padre’s number-two prospect, OF Hunter Renfroe, could make his major league debut in 2016. Renfroe hit .272, with 20 home runs and 78 RBI at Double A and Triple A in 2015.

On the mound, the starting rotation seems less more settled than the lineup.  The number-one spot goes to proven veteran James Shields (13-7, 3.91, with 216 strikeouts in 202 1/3 innings for the Padres last year), with nine consecutive seasons of double-digit wins under his belt. Tyson Ross put up decent numbers (10-12, 3.26) and will hold down the number-two slot – a pitch-to-contact hurler, he could use a little better defense behind him (not to mention more offensive support). The number-three spot goes to Andrew Cashner (6-16, 4.34). Competing for the final two spots are: lefty Robbie Erlin (1-2, 4.76; after 7-6, 5.60 at Triple A); Colin Rea (2-2, 4.26; 5-4, 1.95 at Double A and Triple A); and Drew Pomeranz (5-9, 3.99, primarily out of the bullpen).  There is no established closer or setup man – the Padres traded away their closer (Kimbrel) and a key setup man (Benoit) –  but auditioning candidates could include: Pomeranz; Brandon Mauer (3.00 in 53 games); Kevin Quakenbush (4.01 in 57 games); and Jon Edwards (4.32 in 22 games for Texas and San Diego). I’m rooting for Quackenbush – I like the name.

 

Colorado Rockies – Fifth Place

You’re not going to win many games with a 5.04 team ERA  (worst in MLB) – not even when you score the fifth most runs.  The fact is, the Rockies haven’t had a winning season since 2010, and they are not likely to break the streak in 2016.

Not that they don’t have some talent, particularly on offense.  But to really evaluate where the Rockies stand, you have to consider the impact of Coors Field.  Last season, for example, the Rockies hit .302 with 102 HR and 449 runs scored at home. Away from what is truly the “friendly confines” (my apologies Cubs’ fans), the Rockies hit .228, with 84 home runs and 288 runs scored. With that in mind, let’s look at the Rockies lineup.  Right at its heart – and sure to stay there for a while – is the talented, 24-year-old 3B Nolan Arenado, who not only turned in a .287-42-130 season, but picked up his third Gold Glove.  This is a pretty good player to build on.  Note: While Arenado hit .316 to .258 home and away, he actually hit more home runs on the road (22) than at home (20). If Arenado looks to his left, past shortstop Jose Reyes (.274-7-53, with 24 steals), he will see another of the Rockies’ building blocks – 2B DJ Le Mahieu (.301-6-61, with 23 steals and a Gold Glove of his own). Then there is the OF: CF Charlie Blackmon (.287-17-58, with 43 steals leading off); LF Carlos Gonzalez in the three-spot, contributing a .271 average, 40 home runs and 97 RBI; and Corey Dickerson (.304-10-31 in 65 games) in LF , batting fifth.  Note:  This trio hit .325 at home and .243 on the road.  The power numbers were closer – 36 round trippers at Coors, 31 on the road.    1B may end up a platoon involving the right-handed hitting Mark Reynolds (.230-13-48 for St. Louis) and left-handed batter Ben Paulsen (.277-11-48). Catching belongs to Nick Hundley (.301-10-43).

Now to the mound.  You’ve seen the hitters’ splits, would you want to pitch in Coors? Last season, the mound staff ran up a 5.69 ERA at home and 4.37 on the road.  The telling point?  Even had the Rockies matched their 4.37 road ERA at home, they would have had the third-worst overall ERA in the NL.  Clearly, the Rockies have to develop – or acquire – some pitching that can handle the rigors of Coors.  And, given Coors’ reputation that might not be easy.  For 2016, the rotation starts with Jorge De La Rosa (9-7, 4.17) – who clearly is not intimidated by Coors Field (in eight season with Colorado, his ERA is 4.17 at Coors and 4.22 on the road.)  Chad Bettis showed promise last season, going 8-6, 4.23 in 20 starts. From there, the Rockies can choose from among Jordan Lyles (2-5, 5.14); fastballer Jon Gray (0-2, 5.53 last season; after going 6-6, 4.33 at Triple A); Tyler Chatwood (returning from Tommy John surgery, who went 8-5, 3.15 for the Rockies in 2013); and southpaw Chris Rusin (6-10, 5.33).   Looking to the bullpen, ideally, the Rockies would like Adam Ottavino to complete his comeback from Tommy John surgery and take charge of the closer’s role. In 2014, pre-surgey, he put up a 3.60 ERA in 75 games, striking out 70 batters in 65 innings. He got in ten games late last season, striking out ten in 10 1/3 innings, giving up just three hits, two walks and no runs. The Rockies brought in a couple of free agents to bolster the bullpen competition: Jason Motte (3.91 in 57 games with the Cubs) and Chad Qualls (4.38 in 60 games with the Astros). A few others in the mix could be Christian Freidich, Christian Bergman, and lefty Boone Logan.

Ultimately, Colorado will again put up considerable offense – but it won’t be enough to reach the .500 mark.

So there’s BBRT’s pre-season NL predictions.  Hope you enjoyed them – kinda hope a few of you made it this far.

I tweet baseball @DavidBBRT

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