As the regular season approaches, it’s time for some BBRT predictions – starting with the major player awards. Here’s what BBRT sees for MVP, Cy Young and Rookie of the Year. We’ll start with the senior circuit.
National League MVP – Yadier Molina, C, Cardinals
If the Diamondbacks had a better shot at the post season, this prediction would be a lot more difficult. Yadier Molina would be joined as a front runner by Arizona first baseman Paul Goldschmidt. Goldschmidt, last year, led the NL in homers (36) and RBI (125), while tossing in a .302 average and 15 steals. The fact is, Goldschmidt is just 26-years-old and – if the Diamondbacks can contend – he probably has an MVP in his future (just not this year). From BBRT’s perspective, the Cardinals are poised for a solid season, and catcher Yadier Molina is well-positioned to win the MVP and lead the Redbirds into the post season. One of the game’s best defensive catchers (six consecutive Gold Gloves) and a top notch game caller, Molina has developed into one of the game’s top-hitting backstops as well – averaging .305-.315-.319 over the past three seasons. Anything like 2013’s .319-12-80 line should earn Molina the MVP award. (He’s finished in the top four in MVP voting in each of the past two seasons). He is the one player the Cards can’t do without.
If Molina falters, it seems like a wide-open race, with contenders including:
- Dodgers’ shortstop Hanley Ramirez – Despite being plagued by injuries in 2013, Ramirez showed just how valuable he can be (.345, 20 homers, 57 RBI and ten steals in just 86 games.) Ramirez needs to stay healthy to contend for the MVP.
- Braves’ first baseman, Freddie Freeman – If the Braves are going to hold off the Nationals and win the NL East, they will need a big season from the 6’5” slugger. Even a repeat of 2013’s .319-23-109 will get Freeman some votes. BBRT thinks he’ll do better – at least in the power categories.
- Pirates’ outfielder Andrew McCutchen – Coming off 2013’s MVP season (.317-21-84, with 27 steals), “Cutch” needs the Pirates to top 90 wins again to ensure a repeat MVP opportunity. BBRT’s guess? The Pirates and McCutchen fall short.
- Giants’ catcher Buster Posey – A former NL MVP (2012), Posey still has MVP skills behind the plate and at the plate (.294-15-72 in 2013 was an off-year for the Giants’ backstop, who sports a .308 career average).
A couple of dark horse candidates:
Arizona first baseman Paul Goldschmidt (see the first paragraph) and Nationals’ outfielder Bryce Harper, who just might be ready for the breakout season we’ve all been waiting for (which could vault an even stronger Nationals team past the Braves and to East crown).
NL Cy Young – Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers
The Dodgers’ lefty Clayton Kershaw, who captured the NL CYA in 2011 and 2013 is BBRT’s pick to repeat. He’s coming off a 16-9 season that included a league-leading 232 strikeouts and a league-low 1.83 ERA (his third consecutive season with the NL-low ERA). His consistency, the fact that he can throw four quality pitches for strikes and the likelihood that the Dodgers will top the NL West combine to put Kershaw in good shape to again be recognized as the NL’s top hurler. Then, of course, there is the fact that he probably IS the NL’s bet pitcher. There is a challenger in the wings, however.
The Marlins’ Jose Fernandez, at JUST 21-years-old is also JUST too good not to be in this race. The right-hander has an explosive fast ball and an equally devastating breaking ball. How good is Fernandez – or, better yet, how good can he be? In 2012, in two minor league stops, he went 14-1, with a 1.75 ERA and 158 strikeouts (versus just 34 walks) in 134 innings. Then in 2013, he made the jump from High A to the majors, won the Rookie of the Year award and went 12-6, 2.19, with 187 strikeouts in 182 2/3 innings (all for a Marlins team that lost 100 games.) With a better team behind him, Fernandez would be right there with Kershaw. Jose may not win the CYA this year, but there’s one (or more) in his future.
Just a bit behind Kershaw and Fernandez is right-hander Adam Wainwright, who could win 20 for the Cardinals – after an NL-leading 19 wins (versus 9 losses), with a 2.94 ERA one year ago. Wainwright has finished in the top three in CYA voting three times since 2009 (he missed the 2011 season after Tommy John surgery) and, if Kershaw stumbles, this consistent performer could take the crown.
A few dark horse candidates:
BBRT thinks Braves’ closer Craig Kimbrel can (and should) earn Cy Young consideration- particularly if he can again rack up close to 50 saves. Over the past three seasons, this hard-throwing right-hander has saved 138 games (leading the NL all three years), had an ERA of 1.57 and struck out 14.8 hitters per nine innings.
The Diamondbacks’ southpaw Patrick Corbin could surprise. Corbin started 2013 13-3, 2.45 (April through August), before tailing off to 14-8, 3.41. If he can avoid the late season slump, he will be in the CYA race.
Nationals’ right-hander and former phenom Stephen Strasburg, another year away from (2010) Tommy John surgery, may be ready to finally realize his full potential. For those who don’t remember, in his MLB debut, Strasburg went seven innings, allowing just two earned runs, while striking out 14, with NO walks. While Strasburg went 8-9 last year, his peripherals were not much different than his 15-6 season in 2012 – 2012 ERA 3.16, 197 strikeouts and 48 walks in 159 1/3 innings; 2013 ERA 3.00, 191 strikeouts and 58 walks in 183 innings. If the Nationals contend with the Braves and Strasburg leads the staff, he has a chance.
NL Rookie of the Year – Billy Hamilton, OF, Reds
Run, Forest, Run. The Reds’ outfield prospect Billy Hamilton stole 155 bases in 2012 – in 132 games at High A Bakersfield and Double A Pensacola – the all-time single-season record for organized baseball. Hamilton followed up in 2013 by stealing 75 bases in 132 games at Triple A Louisville, before a September call up to the Reds. In 13 games for Cincinnati, he hit .368 (9-for-19) and stole another 13 bases in 14 attempts. Don’t let that average fool you, Hamilton still has plenty to learn at the plate (he hit just .256 at Louisville). You can’t, however, teach speed and the Reds think highly enough of Hamilton to have penciled him in to replace the departed Shin-Soo Choo. It should be fun to watch him on the base paths and the outfield – and to track his development at the plate.
Hamilton, by the way, was not BBRT’s “first” first choice for NL ROY. That would have been Oscar Taveras (OF) Cardinals, until recurring ankle issues pushed his season back. That injury cut Taveras’ 2013 season short (46 games, .306 average, five home runs, 32 RBI for the Triple A Memphis Redbirds), and seems to still be causing problems. (That may explain the Cardinals’ trade for CF Peter Bourjos.) Once Taveras is ready, it will be hard to keep him out of the Cards’ line up. The 21-year-old (with five minor league seasons under his belt) has little left to prove at the minor league level. Signed by the Cardinals as an undrafted free agent in 2008, Taveras has put up a .320 average, with 45 home runs and 275 RBI in 374 games, while advancing steadily through the Cardinals’ system. In 2011, at age 19, he captured the Midwest League (Class A) batting title, hitting .386, with eight home runs and 62 RBI in 78 games. In 2012, he led the Texas League with a .321 average, adding 24 homers, 94 RBI and ten stolen bases. His ability to hit pitches off the plate reminds BBRT (a long-time Twins fan) of three-time AL batting champ Tony Oliva.
Kolten Wong, the Cardinals’ second base prospect, is already a household name for some fans. He first came to BBRT’s attention in Game Four of the World Series, when he was brought in as a pinch runner in the ninth inning with his Cardinals trailing 4-2. Wong was picked off first (with two out and Carlos Beltran at the plate) by Red Sox closer Koji Uehara – marking the only World Series game ever to end on a pick-off play. Wong hit only .153 in 32 games (59 at bats) for the Cardinals at the end of the 2013 regular season. That, however, is not an indication of his potential. He was called up after hitting .303, with 10 home runs, 45 RBI and 20 stolen bases in 107 games at Triple A Memphis – and has posted a .301 average over three minor league seasons. He may very well earn some ROY votes.
Dark horse candidate:
BBRT likes Mets’ right-handed starter Noah Syndergaard. In 2013, his first season in the Met’s system, Syndergaard split time between High A and Double A – going 9-4, with a 3.06 ERA and 133 strikeouts in 117 2/3 innings. Perhaps more telling is that fact that, while striking out 133, he walked only 28. For his four minor league seasons, the hard-throwing (mid-90s, with a decent curve) righty is 22-12, with 329 whiffs and 81 walks in 293 2/3 innings. With Matt Harvey facing Tommy John surgery, the Mets need to shore up their rotation. While Syndergaard will likely start the season at Triple A, solid performance at that level could lead to a mid-season call up, another exciting mound presence for the Mets and a shot at Rookie of the Year.
Now let’s move on to the American League.
American League MVP – Prince Fielder, 1B/DH, Rangers
Just about everyone’s going to go with the one-two finishers of the past two seasons – Miguel Cabrera and Mike Trout – for AL MVP. BBRT is going to take a different route, projecting a close race among three candidates, with new Rangers’ first baseman Prince Fielder capturing this year’s AL MVP Award. Fielder has something to prove, and he will put up big numbers in a hitters park, helping the Rangers unseat the Athletics at the top of the AL West. A season of .290-35-110 would not be a surprise.
Hitting machine Miguel Cabrera, moving across the infield to first base for the Tigers, will also be a top candidate, and if he comes close to another Triple Crown could slide past Fielder. Let’s face it, when .320-35-110 would be an off year (and for Cabrera it would), you have to expect to be in the MVP hunt. BBRT just thinks voters may: 1) Set expectations for Cabrera high 2) be ready for a change.
Also in the running will be five-tool star Mike Trout. Trout will again likely see a MVP-worthy numbers falling victim to the Angels’ inability to make the post season. MVP runner-up the past two seasons, Trout’s MVP fortunes will depend on the Angels won-lost record.
A couple of wild card candidates:
Albert Pujols, Angels, who says he is finally healthy again (plantar fasciitis). If that’s the case, he is capable of MVP numbers. However, if he helps the Angels find success in the playoff hunt, Pujols is likely to share votes with teammate Trout.
Brian McCann, Yankees, is a long shot for MVP, but the new Yankee catcher is a left-handed pull-hitter, and New York’s short right field may help him to a career year. In addition, he may share the credit if Masahiro Tanaka and Michael Pineda find success on the mound in 2014. If the Yankees take the East, BBRT bets McCann will garner votes.
CY Young Award – Yu Darvish, Rangers
BBRT will go with the flow for AL CYA, looking to Texas right-hander Yu Darvish to take the crown. Darvish went 13-9, 2.83 last season, topping the AL with 277 strikeouts in 209 2/3 innings. This follows an AL rookie campaign of 16-9, 3.90, 221 whiffs in 191 1/3 innings. Also, keep in mind, Darvish’s seven seasons in Japan resulted in a line of 93-68, 1.99, with 8.9 strikeouts per nine innings. Darvish, just 27, has the stuff and the experience to capture the CYA, even in Texas’ hitters’ paradise of a park. It should be his year.
Next on BBRT’s list is Seattle righty Felix Hernandez. In 2013, Hernandez went 12-10, 3.04 in 31 starts – and averaged 9.5 strikeouts per nine innings (versus just two walks). An improved Seattle offense should get him a few more wins – and remember, Fernandez did win the 2010 CYA with a 13-12, 2.27 line.
Detroit may put up a pair of good candidates in former Cy Young winners (2011 & 2013, respectively) Justin Verlander (who was back to form in late 2014) and Max Scherzer (21-3, 2.90 last season).
Dark horse candidates:
Kansas City’s veteran staff leader James Shields (13-9, 3.15 in 2013) could be a surprise candidate– if the Royals make a move up the standings.
Chicago White Sox’ left-hander ander Chris Sale also has CYA potential. Sale went 11-14 last year (despite a 3.07 ERA and 226 strikeouts in 214 1/3 innings). Only 25, Sale was 17-8, 3.05, with 192 Ks in 192 innings for the Sox in 2012. He definitely has the stuff, he just needs some support from the Chicago offense.
Rookie of the Year – Xander Bogaerts (Red Sox, SS-3B)
BBRT sees a four-player race for AL Rookie of the Year, led by Red Sox’ infielder Xander Bogaerts – who will be challenged by Yankee right-handed starter Masahiro Tanaka (already a star in Japan, but an MLB rookie), 2013 Minor League Offensive Player of the Year George Springer (Astros) and Seattle right-handed starter (and future staff ace) Taijuan Walker. BBRT expects Tanaka and Walker to split the “pitcher votes) and Springer to suffer a bit from plate discipline, letting Bogaerts capture the award in a close race.
Seems strange to list a player who sports a .296 average in 12 post-season games as the pre-season Rookie of the Year prediction, but Bogaerts’ still has only 18 games of regular-season major league experience (.250 in 44 at bats, with seven runs, five RBI, one HR and one stolen base). A smooth fielder who came up as a shortstop, he split his time between SS and 3B for the Red Sox down the stretch drive. Bogaerts, ranked as 2014’s top shortstop prospect by MLB.com, hit .296 with 54 home runs, 235 RBI and 17 steals in four minor league seasons.
Then, of course, you have right-handed hurler Masahiro Tanaka, who joins the Yankee rotation after a dominating 24-0, 1.27 ERA (8 complete games) with the Rakuten Golden Eagles in Japan. Just 25-years-old, Tanaka has gone 99-35, 2.30 in seven Japanese seasons – and, over the past three seasons, he has thrown 609 1/3 innings, striking out 593 hitters, while running up a 53-9 record, with a 1.44 ERA, 30 complete games and 11 shutouts.
Also in the running will be Astros’ OF George Springer, 2013’s Minor League Baseball Offensive Player of the Year. Springer has put up Mike Trout-like numbers in the minor leagues over the past two seasons. In 2012, at High A and AA, he played 128 games and hit .302, with 24 HRs, 87 RBI and 32 stolen bases. He moved up to AA/AAA last season and did even better – 135 games, .303, 37 HRs, 108 RBI and 45 steals. He still needs to work on plate discipline (145 walks versus 312 strikeouts over the past two seasons), but (given the state of the Astros) he may be allowed to develop at the major league level. That makes him an ROY contender. (Note: BBRT still has trouble picturing the Astros in the AL. It just doesn’t seem right. In fact, in an early draft of this post, I had Springer in the running for NL ROY.)
Then there’s Mariners’ righty Taijuan Walker. After going 5-3, 3.61 with 64 strikeouts in 57 1/3 innings at Triple A Tacoma, Walker went 1-0, 3.60 with four walks and twelve strikeouts in three late-season starts (15 innings pitched) for the Mariners. In four minor league seasons, Walker struck out 400 hitters (371 2/3 innings) versus 149 walks. BBRT and the Mariners are confident he is ready.
Dark horse candidates include:
Nick Costellanos (Tigers, 3B-OF) is considered one of the minor leagues’ best pure hitters. Costellanos gets the opportunity at the hot corner, as Miguel Cabrera moves across the diamond to first base. Last year, at Triple A, Costellanos hit .276, with 18 home runs and 76 RBI. He also hit .278 in 18 at bats after a September call up to the Tigers.
Then there’s Twins OF prospect Bryan Buxton. Even though the 20-year-old is likely to start the season at the Double A level, Buxton – the 2013 Minor League Player of the Year and MLB.com’s top-rated prospect – is a BBRT dark horse candidate for AL Rookie of the Year. He’s a true five-tool player. In his first full minor league season, split between Class A Cedar Rapids and High Class A Fort Myers, Buxton hit .334 with 12 homers, 77 RBI, 109 runs and 55 stolen bases in 125 games. BBRT’s hope is for a mid-season call up (to appease frustrate Twins’ fans).
Coming soon: BBRT MLB 2014 standings predictions.
I tweet baseball @DavidBBRT.
