It’s MLB’s award season and – in the near future – we’ll find out the winners of major awards like Rookie of the Year, Cy Young Award, Most Valuable Player and Manager of the Year. And, there are some interesting races. In this post, I’ll share BBRT’s picks for those awards, as well as my predictions as to how those who actually have a vote will see them.
First, however, a few observations on this year’s “fields of finalists.”
MVP
In the AL MVP field, two of the three finalists come from Division-winning teams and all three came from teams that played at least .525 ball (and finished a combined 60 games over .500). Over in the NL, the three MVP finalists include ZERO players from teams that made the post season. In fact, the teams featuring NL MVP finalists finished a combined 34 games under .500.
Rookie of the Year
The three finalists for AL Rookie of the Year all made their major league debuts after June 1 and none played in as many as 100 MLB games during the 2015 season. The NL ROY field features one finalist who played his first MLB game in 2014, and two others who debuted this April. The three NL ROY finalists averaged 142 games played in 2015.
Cy Young Award
The AL Cy Young finalists have won one CYA in the past and have a combined total of 178 MLB wins, while the NL group of finalists can boast four past CYAs and 312 MLB wins.
Manager of the Year
The Manager of the Year races feature three American League managers with a total of two seasons of major league managing experience (and 89 victories) among them – opposed to an NL MOY race in which the three finalists have a combined 27 seasons of major league managing experience (and 2,067 victories).
Now, let’s look at the finalists and the BBRT choices and predictions.
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AL MVP
Finalists
Josh Donaldson – BBRT pick for AL MVP
Lorenzo Cain, Outfield, Royals
Cain was a real catalyst for the World Champion Royals – hitting .307, scoring 101 runs and swiping 28 bags. His full line, in 140 games: .307; 169 hits; 101 runs; 16 HRs; 72 RBI; 28 steals.
Josh Donaldon, Third Base, Blue Jays
Donaldson not only led the Blue Jays to the post season – he led the AL in runs scored and runs driven in. He final stat line (in 158 games played): .297; 184 hits; 122 runs; 41 HRs; 123 RBI; six steals.
Mike Trout, Centerfield, Angels
Trout, 2014’s AL MVP, continues to put himself in the MVP picture with five-tool performance. In 2015, he played in 159 games, hitting .299 with a career-high 41 home runs. Trout lead the AL in both Slugging Percentage and On Base Percentage. His line (in 159 games): .299; 172 hits; 104 runs; 41 HRs; 90 RBI; 11 steals.
BBRT Choice: Josh Donaldson
Donaldson and Trout put up the most impressive numbers and, ultimately, BBRT feels were more essential to their teams’ success than Cain (World Championship not withstanding). For me, Donaldson put up the best overall numbers – and (matched against Trout) took his team the farthest.
BBRT Prediction: Josh Donaldson
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NL MVP
Finalists
Bryce Harper, Rightfield, Nationals
This is the Bryce Harper the Nationals have been waiting for (Hey, he’s only 23-years-old.) since his 2012 Rookie of the Year campaign. Harper carried the Nationals’ offense and led the league in home runs and runs scored – as well as both Slugging Percentage and On Base Percentage. His 2015 line (in 153 games): .330; 172 hits; 118 runs scored; 42 HRs; 99 RBI; six steals.
Paul Goldschmidt, First Base, Diamondbacks
Goldschmidt had arguably his best season ever for the D-backs (and that says a lot), setting or tying his career highs in games played, average, hits, runs and stolen bases. His line in 159 games: .321; 182 hits; 103 runs; 32 HRs; 110 RBI; 21 stolen bases – and a Gold Glove.
Joey Votto, First Base, Reds
Votto, the 2010 MVP, was one of the few bright spots for the Reds this season. The lack of support he had in the rest of the lineup is reflected in his league-leading 143 walks. (Votto has led the NL in walks in four of the past five seasons.) In 158 games, Votto delivered: .314 average; 171 hits, 95 runs; 29 HRs; 80 RBI; and 11 stolen bases.
BBRT Choice: Paul Goldschnidt
Power, speed, average – and Glold Glove defense – Goldschmidt should be solid gold in this year’s NL MVP race.
BBRT Prediction: Bryce Harper.
The Harper hype may sway voters and put Goldschmidt in second place.
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AL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR
Finalists:
Carlos Correa, Shortstop, Astros
The 21-year-old Correa made his MLB debut on June 8 and, in 99 games, delivered: .279 average; 108 hits; 52 runs; 22 HRs; 68 RBI; 14 steals.
Francisco Lindor, Shortstop, Indians
Lindor, who turned 22 in November, made his MLB debut on June 14. He played 99 games for the season, with a line of: .313; 122 hits; 50 runs; 12 HRs; 51 RBI; 12 steals.
Miguel Sano, Third Base/DH, Twins
The 22-year-old Sano made his debut on July 2. He played in 80 games, putting up the following stat line: .269 average; 75 hits; 46 runs; 18 home runs; 52 RBI; one stolen base.
For BBRT, this one comes down to Correa versus Lindor – and, ultimately, Correa’s power (22 home runs in just 99 games) versus Lindor’s glove (his ten defensive runs saved – in just 99 games – led all AL shortstops).
BBRT Choice: Francisco Lindor
I always like players who combine “leather and lumber” and Lindor is a future Gold Glover (with more games played he might have won one this year), with offensive numbers that match up well with Correa.
BBRT Prediction: Carlos Correa
I think voters will be swayed by Correa’s power and the fact that his Astros made the post season.
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NL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR
Finalists
Kris Bryant – BBRT choice for NL Rookie of the Year
Kris Bryant, Third Base, Cubs
The 23-year-old Bryant made his MLB debut on April 17 and put up some powerful rookie numbers (in 151 games played): .275 average; 154 hits; 87 runs; 26 HRs; 99 RBI; 13 stolen bases.
Matt Duffy, Infield, Giants
The versatile 24-year-old Duffy actually made his MLB debut in August of 2014, but did not play enough that season to lose his rookie status for 2015. In 149 games this past season, Duffy’s numbers were: .295; 169 hits; 77 runs; 12 HRs; 77 RBI; 12 steals.
Jung Ho Kang, Third Base/Shortstop, Pirates
The oldest of the ROY candidates, the 28-year-old Kang made his MLB debut on April 8 (after several seasons in the KBO – Korean Baseball Organization – where he was a five-time all star.). In 126 games, Kang’s stat line was: .287 average; 121 hits; 60 runs; 15 home runs; 58 RBI; 5 stolen bases’
BBRT Choice: Kris Bryant
Bryant’s offensive numbers are too strong for voters to ignore – or for Duffy and Kang to overcome. Bryant, notably, broke Hall of Famer Billy Williams’ Cubs’ rookie record for both home runs and RBI. Further, he proved a true “team” player – taking a turn at all three outfield position, as well as first base. Only caution – his 199 strikeouts led the NL.
BBRT Prediction: Kris Bryant
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AL MANAGER OF THE YEAR
Finalists
Jeff Banister, Rangers
2015 Rangers’ season: 88-74 – First Place, AL West
2014 Rangers’ season: 67-95 – Fifth Place, AL West
A.J. Hinch, Astros
2015 Astros’ season: 86-76 – Second Place, AL West (Wild Card)
2014 Astros’ season: 70-92 – Fourth Place, AL West
Paul Molitor, Twins
2015 Twins’ season: 83-79 – Second Place, AL Central
2014 Twins’ season: 70-92 – Fifth Place, AL Central
BBRT Choice: Jeff Bannister
Any of these three would be deserving candidates, as they all outperformed pre-season predictions. Bannister gets the edge for two reasons: 1) He brought home a Division title; 2) He had the largest improvement in games won.
BBRT Prediction: Jeff Banister
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NL MANAGER OF THE YEAR
Finalists
Terry Collins, Mets
2015 Mets’ season: 90-72 – First Place, NL East
2014 Mets’ season: 79-83 – Second Place, NL East
Joe Maddon, Cubs
2015 Cubs’ Season: 97-65 – Third Place, NL Central (Wild Card)
2014 Cubs’ Season: 73-89 – Fifth Place, NL Central
Mike Matheny, Cardinals
2015 Cardinals’ season: 100-62 – First Place, NL Central
2014 Cardinals; season: 90-72 – First Place, NL Central
BBRT Choice: Joe Maddon
Maddon came to the Cubs with 11-years managerial experience and a proven record of leadership and results. He continued to deliver those qualities, leading a young Cubs’ squad to a 24-game improvement and a post-season (Wild Card) berth.
BBRT Prediction: Joe Maddon
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AL CY YOUNG AWARD
Finalists
Dallas Keuchel BBRT choice for AL Cy Young Award
Sonny Gray, A’s
Gray went 14-7 in 31 starts for a struggling A’s team. His line: 14-7, .667; 2.73 ERA; three complete games; two shutouts (tied for AL lead); 208 innings pitched; 169 strikeouts.
Dallas Keuchel, Astros
Keuchel started 33 games for the Astros in 2015 and led the AL in wins, shutouts and innings pitched. His stats: 20-8, .714; 2.48 ERA; three complete games (33 starts); two shutouts; 232 innings pitched; 216 strikeouts.
David Price, Tigers/Blue Jays
Price won 18 this season (nine each for the Tigers and Blue Jays) against five losses, while also winning the AL ERA title at 2.45. His line: 18-5; .783; 2.45 ERA; three complete games; one shutout; 220 1/3 innings pitched; 225 strikeouts.
BBRT Choice: Dallas Keuchel
Keuchel’s 20 wins give him the edge over Price. Looking at overall stats: Keuchel was in the AL’s top three in wins (first); ERA (second); WHIP (first); innings (first); starts (second); complete games (third) – and he won a Gold Glove. He gets my vote.
BBRT Prediction: Dallas Keuchel
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NL CY YOUNG AWARD
Jake Arrieta, Cubs
Arrieta came into the 2015 season with a five-season MLB record of 34-32, just one complete game (25 starts) and a 4.48 ERA. He proceeded to turn heads across the MLB – leading the league in wins, starts, complete games, and shutouts. His line for the season: 22-6, .786; 1.77 ERA; 33 starts; four complete games; three shutouts; 229 innings pitched; 236 strikeouts.
Zack Greinke, Dodgers
Nobody was stingier on the mound in 2015 than Zack Grienke, who logged an MLB-lowest 1.66 ERA. Greink’se 2015 stats: 19-3, 1.66 ERA; 32 starts; one complete game; 222 2/3 innings pitched; 200 strikeouts.
Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers
Kershaw, already a three-time CYA winner, is in the running again, after winning 16 games and leading all of MLB with 301 strikeouts. He also tied for the league lead in starts, complete games, shutouts and innings pitched. His stats: 16-7, .696; 2.13 ERA; 232 2/3 innings pitched, 301 strikeouts.
BBRT Choice: Jake Arrieta
Arrieta simply put it ALL together in 2015 and that should be enough to hold off Grienke’s MLB-best 1.66 ERA and Kershaw’s MLB-best 301 whiffs.
BBRT Prediction: Jake Arrieta
I tweet baseball @DavidBBRT
Member: Society for American Baseball Research (SABR); The Baseball Reliquary; Baseball Bloggers Alliance
