Opening Day is coming up fast and, in this post, I’d like to introduce ten rookies that BBRT expects to be on their team’s Opening Day rosters.  It’s BBRT’s annual “watch” list.  This list is made up of (not necessarily the best long-term prospects) rookies BBRT expects to make an impact at the major league level this season. Not surprising – given what we’ve seen from the likes of Yasiel Puig, Yeonis Cespedes and Jose Abreu – there is a strong Cuban contingent on the list, as well as one Korean Baseball Organization import.  There are four (and possibly a fifth) outfielders on the Watch List, as well as four pitchers (including one currently living in a Volkswagen van behind a Florida Wal-Mart).

With that introduction, here’s BBRT’s Rookie/\Prospect Watch List.

 

Jorge Soler, OF, Cubs

Jorge Soler makes the top of BBRT’s 2015 Rookie Watch List based on his play after a late-September 2015 call-up.  In 24 games for the Cubs, Soler hit .292, with five home runs (14 extra base hits) and 20 RBI. There are a host of high-potential prospects as we go into the 2015 season, but Soler is one who has already shown an ability to handle big-league pitching.

The 6’ 4”, 215-pound, 23-year-old played for the Cuban National Team in the World Junior Baseball Championship and in the Cuban National Series before defecting in 2011.  In June 2012, he signed a nine-year deal with the Cubs for a reported $30 million.  It’s looking like a very wise investment.

In 2012, at the Rookie level, Soler hit .299, with five home runs, 25 RBI, 12 steals and 12 walks – in just 34 games.  In 2013, he put up a .281-8-35 stat line in 55 games at the High A level (and hit .271 in the Fall League). Last season, Soler played at the Rookie League, AA and AAA levels before making his late-season MLB debut with the Cubs. In his three 2014 minor league stops, Soler hit .340-15-57. He has reasonable speed, a strong arm and a powerful bat.  Soler is expected to man right field right from Opening Day, batting in the five- or six-spot in the order.

BBRT note: Those who choose to watch Soler’s progression with the Cubs may get the opportunity to observe a couple of other rising prospects in 3B/OF Kris Bryant (who hit .325 with a minor-league high 43 home runs at AA and AAA a year ago) and SS Addison Russell, who, at just 21, has three minor league seasons (a .300 average, 37 home runs and 150 RBI in 233 games) under his belt. Soler, however, is likely to have the most immediate impact.   

Rusney Castillo, OF – Red Sox

Number-two on the BBRT Watch List is another Cuban import – Rusney Castillo, who signed a $72.5 million, seven-year contract with the Red Sox in August of 2014. Castillo, who defected from Cuba in late 2013, played in the Cuban National Series, as well as with the Cuban national team. In five seasons in the Cuban National Series, Castillo hit .315, with 42 home runs, 192 RBI and 68 steals in 323 games.

A speedy 5’ 8”, 186-poud outfielder, Castillo made his major league debut less than a month after his signing, and hit .333 with two home runs, six RBI and three steals in ten games for Boston, The 27-year-old rookie is expected to man centerfield for the Red Sox – and is an early favorite for AL Rookie of the Year.

Steven Souza, OF, Rays

BBRT really likes the 25-year-old Souza – acquired by the Rays in an off-season trade with the Nationals. Souza was a 2007 third-round draft pick (Nationals) as an 18-year-old.  It took the 6’ 4”, 225-pound right-handed hitter a few seasons to adjust (he hit just .227 over his first five minor league seasons). In 2012, Souza began to turn it on – hitting .297-23-85, with 14 steals in 97 games at A and High A.  In 2013, he proved 2012 was no fluke, going .297-15-46 with 22 steals at two levels (Rookie and AA) and then hitting .357 in the Fall League. Last season, Souza hit .345-18-99 with 28 steals, while working has way from A to AA to AAA.  He was selected the International League Rookie of the Year and MVP.  Souza hit only .130 in a couple of major league call-ups (21 games), but he looks ready to take a spot on the Rays roster – and in the day-to-day lineup – for 2015.

Joc Pederson OF – Dodgers

Joc Pederson has power, speed and a pretty good pedigree (his father Stu put up a .292 average over a dozen minor league seasons and got into eight MLB games for the Dodgers in 1985).  The younger Pederson was the Dodgers’ 2012 Minor League Player of the Year, hit .278 with 22 home runs and 31 steals in two 2013 minor league stops and, in 2014, was the Pacific Coast League Most Valuable player – hitting .303 with 33 home runs, 106 runs, 78 RBI, 30 steals and, importantly, 100 walks (in 121 games). The 6’ 1”, 185-pound left-handed hitter has nothing left to prove in the minor leagues, but does need to cut down his strikeouts (149 at AAA last season). Pederson hit .143, with 11 whiffs in 28 at bats for the Dodgers last September. The Dodgers felt strongly enough about Pederson’s potential to trade Matt Kemp in the off-season and pencil the rookie into the starting outfield (center).

Aaron Sanchez, RHP, Blue Jays

There’s little doubt that Aaron Sanchez has what it takes to get major league hitters out. Although he still qualifies as a rookie, Sanchez made 24 relief appearances for the Blue Jays last season – going 2-2, with a 1.09 ERA and 27 strikeouts (versus just nine walks) in 33 innings.  So, what is BBRT watching for?  The question surrounding the 6’ 4”, 200-pound, 22-year-old seems to be whether the Blue Jays will use him as a starter or a closer. In five minor league seasons, Sanchez went 18-23, 3.51, striking out 349 in 356 1/3 innings. Sanchez, a 2010 first-round pick, has a lively, mid-90s fastball, a good change-up and a better than average curve.

Daniel Norris, LHP, Blue Jays

Norris makes it to the BBRT watch list for a couple of reasons:

• First, in 2014, Norris moved from High A to Double A to Triple A to the Blue Jays – striking out 167 hitters in 131 innings along the way. In his three minor league stops, Norris went 12-2 with a 2.53 ERA and 163 strikeouts in 124 1/3 innings. (He made five appearances for the Blue Jays last season, going 0-0, 5.40 with five walks and four whiffs in 6 2/3 innings.)
• Second, Norris is truly his own man. Despite signing for a $2 million bonus, the 21-year-old, 6’ 2”, 195-pound lefthander’s Spring Training home is a 1978 Volkswagen van parked behind a Florida Wal-Mart. (Figures he’d be a lefty.) Norris’ take on the situation, as reported by CBS News, “I’m not going to change who I am just because people thinks it’s weird. The only way I’m going to have a great season is by starting out happy and balanced and continuing to be me.”

Now, how can you not follow that rookie? Norris not only brings his unconventional attitude to the mound, he also has a mid-90s fastball, slider, curve and circle change.  His opportunity to go north may very well depend on whether another BBRT prospect to watch – Aaron Sanchez – sticks with the Jays as a reliever or starter. Regardless, BBRT expects to see Norris’ free-spirit in the Blue Jays’ rotation sometime in 2015.

Yasmany Tomas, 3B/OF, Diamondbacks

Yasmany Tomas earned a reputation as one of Cuba’s top power hitters before defecting and eventually signing a six-year, $68.5 million contract with the Diamondbacks this past December.  In five seasons in the Cuban National Series, Tomas hit .290 with 39 home runs and 151 RBI in 272 games.  The 24-year-old has the look of a power hitter – 6’2”, 230 pounds.  The question in Spring Training seems to be whether Tomas has the skills to handle third base, or will find a corner outfield spot.

Andrew Heaney, LHP, Angels

Andrew Heaney – a Marlins’ first-round draft pick in 2012 (ninth overall) – came to the Angels in a trade for second baseman Howie Kendrick (after spending approximately five hours as a Dodger as part of a trade that involved Dan Haren and Dee Gordon). Heaney went 0-3, 5.83 with the Marlins (seven appearances, five starts), but that is not an indicator of his talent. In three minor league seasons, the 23-yerar-old southpaw went 19-11, 2.53 – striking out 262 batters (only 68 walks) in 259 2/3 innings (and we all know how MLB teams covet power-pitching southpaws).  The 6’ 2”, 185-pound hurler has a low- to mid-90s fastball, a devastating slider (his best pitch) and a good change up – as well as excellent control. (In twenty-four 2014 appearances at AA and AAA, Heaney struck out 143, while walking only 36, in 137 1/3 innings.)

BBRT note: If you are monitoring Heaney, you might also keep an eye on his likely competition for a spot in the rotation, another rookie prospect, Nick Tropeano. The 23-year-old right-hander – picked up in an off-season trade with the Astros – has put up a 31-24, 3.26 record in four minor league seasons. Tropeano went 1-3, 4.57 in four starts for the Astros after a September 2014 call-up.

Noah Syndergaard, RHP, Mets

Noah Syndergaard – 6’6”, 240 pounds – is an imposing presence on the mound.  Just 22-years-old, he has already translated that presence into 31 minor league wins (19 losses), with a 3.25 ERA and 474 strikeouts in 426 2/3 innings.  He has a 95-mph fastball, a slow-breaking curve and a circle change. While the Mets have a solid rotation, BBRT can’t see them keeping Syndergaard down at AAA much longer. If he doesn’t make the big league squad out of Spring Training, BBRT expects to see Syndergaard in the Big Apple sooner rather than later.

Jung-ho Kang, SS, Pirates

The 27-year-old Kang has eight seasons in the Korean Baseball Organization – and last season hit .356 with 40 home runs and 117 RBI in 117 games.   How Kang – a four-time KBO All Star and four-time KBO Gold Glove winner – performs for the Pirates may tell us as much about the state of South Korean baseball is as it does about Kang himself.  Kang signed a four-year, $11 million contract with the Pirates in January.

A few others you might want to put on your watch list: Kris Bryant, 3B, Cubs; Dylan Bundy, RHP, Orioles; Byron Buxton, OF, Twins; Carlos Correa, SS, Astros; Mike Foltynewicz, RHP, Braves; Francisco Lindor, SS, Indians; Alex Meyer, RHP, Twins; Carlso Rondon, LHP, White Sox;  Addison Russell, SS, Cubs.

I tweet baseball @DavidBBRT

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With the players in camp and exhibition games approaching, BBRT is finishing up its 2015 pennant race predictions.  This post will focus on the National League – for the BBRT take on the American league, click here.  We’ll take a brief look at each divisional race and, for those who want a more detailed look, finish up with a team-by-team preview.

 

 

 

NL EAST

The Nationals ran away with the NL East a year ago (17 games over second-place Atlanta) and added the off-season’s premier free-agent – former Cy Young Award winner Max Scherzer. With arguably MLB’s best one-to-five starting rotation, Washington is poised to repeat.  The Mets and Marlins are likely to fight it out for second place – and  a possible Wild Card Spot. The Mets boast a strong starting rotation (particularly if Matt Harvey is back in form), an underrated bullpen and sound offense. Miami comes into the season with a strong offense, an effective bullpen and a combination of young and veteran arms in the rotation.  While the Braves still have a solid pitching staff (and one of the game’s top closers), they traded away too much of their offense to contend. The Phillies are in the processing of rebuilding – and their fans will need patience. Predicted order of finish:

Washington Nationals

New York Mets

Miami Marlins

Atlanta Braves

Philadelphia Phillies

NL CENTRAL

The Cardinals should have just enough offense to ride their pitching to another division title – although it wouldn’t surprise BBRT to see the Pirates, Cubs or Brewers atop this division either.  The Pirates, led by MVP-candidate Andrew McCutchen, have a nice balance of power, speed and defense in the lineup.  The pitching is a bit worrisome, but if the rotation holds up, they will be in the race to the end.  The Cubs improved on the field (Jon Lester, Jason Hammel, Miguel Montero) and in the dugout (new manager Joe Maddon). They also have a nice blend of veterans and up-and-coming youngsters in the lineup.  They will contend and, if the Pirates falter in the least, Maddon should be able to lead the Cubs into second place.  The Brewers led the division for 150 days in 2014, before a late season meltdown.  A healthy Ryan Braun would boost their chances, but the starting pitching seems a little thin.  While everyone else in the division seemed to be improving, the Reds appear to have given up more than they gained in the off-season market – particularly went it comes to the pitching mound.  Predicted order of finish:

Saint Louis Cardinals

Pittsburgh Pirates (Wild Card)

Chicago Cubs

Milwaukee Brewers

Cincinnati Reds

NL WEST

The Dodgers have the best pitcher in baseball in Clayton Kershaw – and the best starting rotation in the West. Plus, Los Angeles made a host of (surprising) off-season moves, improving their defense, without diminishing the offense. They should repeat as division champs.  We should see a battle for second place (and a Wild Card spot) between the defending World Series Champion Giants and the up-and-coming San Diego Padres.  BBRT is going to go out on a limb and say the dramatically improved Padres offense (particularly the all-new outfield) and strong pitching will bring the Padres home ahead of the Giants. The Giants will still be in it, but they will miss Pablo Sandoval and Michael Morse, and they really could have used Jon Lester or James Shields to bolster their rotation.  (BBRT had San Diego predicted to finish behind the Giants until the Shields signing.) The Rockies face the usual dilemma – solid offense (if healthy) and suspect pitching (Who wants to sign on to pitch at Coors?).  Good health could help – the Rockies led the NL in trips to the disabled list in 2014 – but fourth place looks like the limit.  On a winning team, the Diamondbacks’ Paul Goldschmidt would be one of the front-runners for MVP.  While the D-backs did improve over the off-season, look for a middle-of-the-pack offense to be offset by a below-average pitching staff. Predicted order of finish:

Los Angeles Dodgers

San Diego Padres (Wild Card)

San Francisco Giants

Colorado Rockies

Arizona Diamondbacks.

NL MVP

Winner: Giancarlo Stanton, Miami Marlins

Contenders: Andrew McCutchen, Pirates; Anthony Rizzo, Cubs; Paul Goldschmidt, Diamondbacks.

NL CY YOUNG AWARD

Winner:  Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers

Contenders: Max Scherzer, Nationals; Jordan Zimmerman, Nationals; Stephen Strasburg, Nationals; and, to break the trend, Johnny Cueto, Reds.

NL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR

Winner: Joc Pederson, Los Angeles Dodgers

Contenders:  Yasmany Tomas, Diamondbacks; Noah Syndergaard, Mets; Jorge Soler, Cubs; Kris Bryant, Cubs.

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Now, let’s look at the division races team-by-team.

NL EAST

First – Washington Nationals

No NL team won more games than the Nationals’ 96 in 2014 (and only the Angels in the American League topped that number with 98 wins).  Had the Nats simply sat back and watched the off-season marketplace, Washington would have still been the favorite in the East.  But the Nationals went out and got MLB’s most-coveted free-agent prize – Tigers right-hander Max Scherzer (18-5, 3.15, with 252 strikeouts). The 2013 Cy Young Award winner, who has a 70-24 record over the past four seasons, joins a 2015 rotation that will feature: Jordan Zimmerman, Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez (the only lefthander in the rotation) and Doug Fister.  And, if any of these falter (or injuries surface), Tanner Roark (15-10, 2.85 for the Nats last season) is ready to step in. This rotation is clearly among the best (if not the best in baseball) and will keep Washington on top of the East.

The bullpen will miss key setup man Tyler Clippard (traded to the A’s for infielder Yunel Escobar), Ross Detwiler (traded to the Rangers) and free-agent Rafael Soriano. The Nationals still have closer Drew Storen (11 saves, 1.12 ERA) and also signed two former closers: Casey Janssen (81 saves for the Blue Jays over the past three seasons) and Heath Bell (who saved 40+ games in a season as recently as 2011). Also in line for relief work are Aaron Barrett, Matt Thornton and Craig Stammen. Overall, the bullpen could use some help, but the starting rotation should keep the pressure off.

The Nats lost an offensive and defensive asset in free agent Adam LaRoche (who hit 26 home runs and played plus defense at first base).  Still there is plenty offense to support the National’s stellar pitching – a year ago the National gave up the fewest runs and scored the third-most runs in the NL.  Former third-sacker Ryan Zimmerman should take over at first base.  He has had shoulder problems (hence the position switch), but did hit .280 with five home runs in 61 games last season  –  and 26 home runs as recently as 2013. Even if Zimmerman doesn’t return to 2013 form, the Nationals can expect offensive punch from the likes of RF Bryce Harper (could this be the “breakout” year Nats’ fans have been waiting for), LF Jayson Werth and SS Ian Desmond – who will all benefit from the table-setting skills of CF Denard Span and 3B Anthony Rendon at the top of the order (the pair combined to score 205 runs and steal 48 bases in 2014).

Clearly, the National are favorites to capture the East – and will go as far in the post season as their rotation will carry them.

Key Question:  Who will be the Opening Day starter – Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg or Jordan Zimmerman?  Talk about an embarrassment of riches.

Nationals Fact: The Nationals were the only NL East team with a winning record in 2014 – taking their division by 17 games over the Braves.

Second – New York Mets

Meaningful September baseball is coming back to New York – and not at Yankee Stadium.

It all starts on the mound for the Mets – with a rotation likely to feature at least four of the following arms:  NL Rookie of the Year Jacob deGrom (9-6, 2.69), Zack Wheeler 11-11, 3.94), lefty Jon Neise (9-11, 3.40), Dillon Gee (seven wins) and 41-year-old Bartolo Colon (who won 15 games for NY in 2014).  But the final story of the effectiveness of the Mets rotation may be written by a pair of hurlers who did not take the mound for New York in 2014.  The Mets are counting on a rebound from right-handed starter Matt Harvey – who sat out last season, following Tommy John surgery, after making the All Star team in 2013 (9-5, 2.27 in 22 starts).  It’s also possible that prospect Noah Syndergaard may crack the rotation at some time during the season.  In five minor league seasons, Syndergaard has gone 31-19, 3.25 and fanned 474 batter ion 426 2/3 innings.  Interestingly (to BBRT), deGrom, Wheeler and Syndergaard are all right-handed throwers who bat left-handed.

The bullpen – while not boasting a host of big names – has the ability to get the job done.  Closer Jerry Mejia notched 28 saves in 31 opportunities, and whiffed 98 batters in 93 2/3 innings. Jeurys Familia, who appeared in a team-high 76 games last season – with a 2.21 ERA and more than a strikeout per inning – should again get plenty of work. Others in the pen are likely to include Vic Black (2.60 ERA in 41 games) and Josh Edgin (1.32 in 47 games).  The bullpen could also get a boost with the return of former closer Bobby Parnell (Tommy John surgery), who could challenge Mejia for the ninth-inning spot.

The Mets added some offense and veteran leadership with free-agent signee OF Michael Cuddyer.  Cuddyer is a proven run-producer who hit .332-10-31 in an injury-shortened season (49 games) for Colorado. Cuddyer is one-year removed from a .331-20-84 season. While he may not do that kind of damage away from Colorado, a .280 average with 20-25 home runs is a reasonable expectation. There is more punch available from 1B Lucas Duda (.253-30-92) and second baseman Daniel Murphy provides a steady bat (.289) in the number-two hole.  CF Juan Lagares showed a good glove and hit .281 (116 games) in the leadoff sport.  Still, to challenge the Nationals, the Mets will need a rebound from veteran 3B David Wright, who is coming off a shoulder injury that sapped his power in 2014 (just eight home run in 134 games) and LF Curtis Granderson  (.227-20-66 in 2014, but boasting a 40-home run season as recently as 2012). The new dimensions at Citi Field should help both. Behind the plate, the Mets would like to see the Travis d’Arnaud of the second half (.265 with seven home runs, as opposed to the first-half’s .217 with six homers.) It looks like a trip to AAA in June – where d’Arnaud hit .436 with six home runs in 16 games) may have resolved his offensive problems.

Key Question: Will either Wilmer Flores or Ruben Tejada step up and take over the shortstop spot?

Mets Fact:  For 2015, the Mets are moving the right-field and right-center field fence in five-feet and ten-feet, respectively. If those dimensions had been in place in 2014, the Mets would have hit 17 more home runs and given up seven more.

Third – Miami Marlins

The Marlins signed MVP candidate RF Giancarlo Stanton (.288-37-105, with 13 steals) to 13-year $325 million contract – and then worked to build a contending team around him.  The Marlins, in fact, were one of MLB’s busiest teams in the off-season. They did keep the outfield intact, and it’s one of the best – with Stanton joined by LF Christian Yelich (.284-9-54, 21 steals) and CF Martin Ozuna (.269-23-85).  All three can hit and all three have Gold Glove potential.  Miami revamped its infield, with the only holdover in the starting quartet being slick-fielding SS Adeiny Hechavarria, who hit .276 last season.  The corner infield spots will feature trade acquisition 3B Martin Prado (.282 with 12 home runs for the Diamondbacks and Yankees) and free-agent signee 1B Michael Morse (.279-16-61 with the Giants). The Marlins also added some needed speed top the lineup, picking up 2B Dee Gordon (.289 with 64 steals) in a trade with the Dodgers. The Marlins could use a comeback year from C Jarrod Saltalamacchia, who slumped to .220-11-44 after .273-14-65 in 2013 – and also threw our only 17 percent of attempted base stealers.

The rotation will miss Jose Fernandez, who had Tommy John surgery last May and likely won’t be back until (or very near) the All Star break.  In 36 MLB starts, The 2013 All Star and Rookie of the Year is 16-8 with a 2.25 ERA and 10.3 strikeouts per nine innings. In Fernandez’s absence, the number-one spot will temporarily go to Henderson Alvarez (12-7, 2.65). Rounding out the starting staff will be: veteran Mat Latos (trade with the Reds), a quality arm, but an injury risk; 13-game winner Jarrod Cosart; Tom Koehler (10-10, 3.81); and Dan Haren (trade with the Dodgers).

The bullpen will be led by closer Steve Cishek (39 saves, 84 whiffs in 65 1/3 innings), with quality support likely to come from Mike Dunn, Bryan Morris, A.J. Ramos, Aaron Crow (trade with Royals) and Carter Capps.  (Crow, Morris and Ramos were a combined 21-2 a year ago).

The Marlins were big players in the off-season market – plugging some holes, adding a couple of starters to hold things down until Fernandez returns and even adding to an already solid bullpen.  They should fight the Mets for second place in the East, but aren’t ready to topple the Nationals yet.

Key Question:  When will Jose Fernandez return – and will Latos and Haren be able to fill the gap until he does?

Marlins Fact: In 2014, Giancarlo Stanton led the NL in intentional walks with 24.  The next highest NL total was 12 (Jody Mercer, Pittsburgh/Chase Utley, Philadelphia).

Fourth – Atlanta Braves

In trading away Justin Upton, Jason Heyward and Evan Gattis, the Braves parted with just over half their 2014 home run production – 62 of 123). Atlanta also let a number of free agents depart, including pitchers Ervin Santana and Aaron Harang (who won a combined 26 games for the Braves a year ago) and Brandon Beachy and Kris Medlin (neither of whom pitched in 2013 – Tommy John surgery).

These off -season moves did not help an already weak offense.  After scoring the second-fewest runs in the NL a year ago, the Braves may have taken a step backward with the Upton, Heyward and Gattis departures. Atlanta did add free agent Nick Markakis (.276-14-50 with the Orioles). That’s a pretty even exchange for Heyward in the OF – their offensive numbers are similar and they both captured Gold Gloves in 2014.  The rest of the outfield picture does not look as rosy.  Among the candidates are Jonny Gomes, Melvin Upton, Jr. (the artist formerly known as B.J. Upton) and Eric Young, Jr. – as well as rookies Todd Cunningham and Zoilo Almonte (18 home runs at Triple A). Gomes hit .234, with six home runs and 37 RBI for Boston and Oakland last year, while Upton put up a .208-12-35 line for the Braves – which, by the way, was an improvement over his 2013 stat line of .184-9-26. Young hit .229 in 100 games with the Mets, but did steal 30 bases. BBRT doesn’t expect a lot of offense from the Braves’ garden players. There is a little punch at the corner infield spots with returnees 1B Freddie Freeman (.288-18-78) and 3B Chris Johnson (.263-10-58). You expect more power form the corners and the good news is both Freeman and Johnson have shown they can do better.  Shortstop will be handled by Platinum Glove winner Andrelton Simmons, but second base is remains unsettled until prospect Jose Peraza, a 21-year-old who hit .339 with 60 steals at High A and Double A in 2014, is ready. In the meantime, free-agent signee utility infielder Alberto Callaspo is likely to handle most of the keystone duties – but there is a chance Eric Young, Jr. could slide into the second base competition as well.   Catching is in the hands of Christian Bethancourt (a fine defensive backstop) and free-agent signee A.J. Pierzynski, who can provide some offensive punch.  Overall, it looks like the Braves will again have trouble putting runs on the board.

The pitching is in better shape – even with the offseason losses.  The rotation will be led by Julio Teheran (14-13, 2.89) and southpaw Alex Wood (11-11, 2.78). Atlanta is also counting on the arms of newcomer Shelby Miller (10-9, 3.74 for the Cardinals) and returnee Mike Minor (a left-hander who had an off-season in 2014, but won 13 games the previous season).  There should be competition for the number-five slot, with the most intriguing prospects being 2010 first-round draft pick Michael Foltynewicz (picked up in the Gattis trade) and ten-year veteran Wandy Rodriguez.

The bullpen should be a strong point, featuring flame-throwing Craig Kimbrel (47 saves), arguably the NL’s best closer, and free-agent signee Jason Grilli (who saved 12 games last season and 33 for the Pirates in 2013).  The Braves are also hoping for a rebound from free agent Jim Johnson, who had a rough 2014 (5-2, 7.09 with the A’s and Tigers), but topped 50 saves in 2012 and 2013.

In 2014, the Braves had the NL’s third-best ERA – and the pitching looks solid again in 2015.  Unfortunately, there doesn’t appear to be enough offense to translate the pitching into a .500 or better season.

Key Question: In his last two seasons with Tampa Bay, Melvin (then B.J.) Upton, Jr. hit .244, with 51 home runs, 159 RBI and 67 steals. In his first two with the Braves (2013-14), his totals were .198-21-61, with 32 steals.  This season, Upton announced he would go from being known as B.J. Upton to his given name of Melvin Upton, Jr.   The question is, will the “new” Melvin be able to live up to B.J.’s promise?  The Braves’ offense needs more from the 30-year-old.

Braves Fact:  In 2014, the Braves scored two or fewer runs in 64 games – 55 of them losses.

Fifth – Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies finished last in the East a year ago – giving up the most runs and scoring the second fewest in the division – and yet the core of the team is remarkably similar for 2015.  It would be foolish to expect a different result.

On offense, the key power spots – corner infield – are manned by returnees 35-year-old  1B Ryan Howard (.223-23-95, with an NL-leading 190 strikeouts) and 3B Cody Ashe (.252-10-44 in 121 games.) Ashe, however, may be pushed by power prospect Maikel Franco (16 HRs and 78 RBI at Triple A). Chase Utley, at 36-years-old, is back at 2B – after a .270-11-78 season.  He will have a new double play partner (longtime SS Jimmy Rollins was traded to the Dodgers), most likely 25-year-old Freddy Galvis (who hit just .176 in 43 games for the Phils in 2014).  Carlos Ruiz (.252-6-31) is back behind the plate.  If the infield seems bereft of reliable power, the outfield doesn’t offer any relief.  Gone via trade is Marlon Byrd (who led the Phillies with 25 home runs a year ago). Returning are: CF Ben Revere – an effective leadoff man who hit for a .306 average and stole 49 bases, but offers no power (his two home runs last year were the only round trippers of his 493-game career) – and RF Dominic Brown, who hit just .235 with ten home runs. Grady Sizemore is back and will compete (or platoon) for the LF spot with Darin Ruf. The pair hit .233 and .235, respectively last season).

We may see some changes before the season opens, but the rotation looks to be led by left-hander Cole Hamels – a legitimate “ace” who went 9-9 with a 2.46 ERA in 2014. Former Cy Young Award winner Cliff Lee (another southpaw) holds down the number-two spot, but he is 36-years old and coming off elbow issues.  BBRT wouldn’t be surprised to see either Hamels or Lee on the trade market.  After the front two, the Phillies are looking to free-agent signee Aaron Harang (a 12-game winner for the Braves, but also 36), veteran Jerome Williams (who pitched for Houston, Texas and Philadelphia last season) and either Dave Buchanan (6-8, 3.75) or free agent Chad Billingsley (attempting a comeback from elbow surgery).

Jonathan Papelbon (39 saves) will again handle the ninth inning, with notable bullpen support from Ken Giles (3-1, 1.18 in 44 games), Justin De Fratus (3-1, 2.39 in 54 games) and Jake Diekman (73 appearances, 100 strikeouts in 71 innings).

The Phillies just don’t have enough offense to compete in the East.

Key Question:  Can former Rookie of the year and MVP Ryan Howard stay healthy and rebound offensively? From 2006 to 2011, Howard averaged 153 games, a .247 batting average, 44 home runs and 133 RBI per season.  His averages from 2012-14 were 101 games, .231, 16 home runs and 65 RBI. A return to .250-30-100 territory would put a smile on a lot of Phillies’ faces.

Phillies Fact:   On June 23, 1971, Rick Wise pitched a no-hitter for the Phillies, topping the Reds 4-0.  Wise drove in three runs on a pair of homers – and is still the only pitcher to hit two home runs in a no-hitter. Wise, by the way, hit six home runs and drove in 15 runs that season. In 2014, the entire Phillies pitching staff hit zero home runs and drove in nine runs.

NL CENTRAL

First – Saint Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals will again have one of the NL’s top starting rotations.  Adam Wainwright (20 wins), Lance Lynn (15 wins), John Lackey (14 wins for Boston and St. Louis) return to lead the rotation. They are joined by Michael Wacha, who had some shoulder issues, and put up a 5-6 record, with a 3.20 ERA in 19 starts.  The final rotation spot appears slated for hard-throwing prospect Carlos Martinez – and, if he is not quite ready, youngster Marco Gonzalez and veteran Jaime Garcia (3-1, 4.12 in seven starts) could compete for the spot.  The strength and depth of their starting pitching, in fact, enabled the Cardinals to trade reliable starter Shelby Miller (10-9, 3.74) to the Braves for OF Jason Heyward (more on that later).

Closing duties will continue to belong to Trevor Rosenthal (45 saves) – despite some control problems in 2014. The Miller trade also brought the Cardinals reliever Jordan Walden, who appeared in 58 games for the Braves, with a 2.88 ERA and 62 strikeouts in 50 innings. He adds depth to the bullpen and protection at closer (Walden saved 32 games for the Angels in 2011). Randy Choate, Sam Freeman and Seth Maness should also get plenty of work.

The Redbirds worked to improve their offense in the off season (last season, they hit the fewest home runs and scored the tent- most runs in the NL). The first order business was to replace the tragic loss (in an off-season car accident) of top prospect Oscar Taveras.  In the Shelby Miller trade, the Cardinals picked up 25-year-old RF Jason Heyward (a Gold Glove defender, who went .271-11-58 with 20 steals for the Braves last season – and who many feel has yet to realize his full offensive potential).  Heyward will join CF Jon Jay (who hit .303, but only three home runs) and LF Matt Holliday (a professional hitter who will deliver a .300 average with 20-homer power). In the infield, a pair of Matts (Adams and Carpenter) hold down 1B and 3B, respectively. Both are reliable defenders and solid run producers. The middle of the diamond belongs to Kolton Wong (2B) and Johnny Peralta (SS) – who delivered steady defense and 33 home runs between them.  At catcher, they just don’t get any better than Yadier Molina – a six-time All Star and seven-time Gold Glover with a .284 career batting average.   Finally, the Cardinals added some off-the-bench punch by signing free agent Mark Reynolds – who has hit 20 or more home runs in seven consecutive seasons, with a high of 44 in 2009.  Reynolds, however, also strikes out A LOT and hit only .196 in 2014.  He can fill in at 1B, 3B and, in a pinch, OF, as well as provide a pinch-hitting threat.

Overall, the Cardinals – while aging a bit – have enough to repeat at the top of the Central.

Key Question:  Not too many questions on a well-balanced team.  If there is one, it’s whether Michael Wacha’s arm (shoulder) holds up for the long haul?

Cardinals Fact:  The Cardinals’ put the bat on the ball in 2014, striking out an NL-low 1,133 times.

Second – Pittsburgh Pirates

When your offense stars with 2013 MVP, four-time All Star and Gold Glove (2013) defender Andrew McCutchen, you can expect good things.  The five-tool player went .314-25-84, with 18 steals in 2014 – pretty much an average year for him.  Batting behind “Cutch” will be likely clean-up hitter 2B Neil Walker – a switch hitter, who hit .271 with 23 home runs in 2014. Flanking McCutchen in the OF will be Starling Marte (.291 with 13 homers) and Gregory Polanco (.235 with seven home runs and 14 steals in 89 games).  Both Marte and Polanco are plus defenders and both are expected to continue to advance offensively.  SS belongs to Jody Mercer, a solid defender who contributed 12 home runs, while the corner spots will be manned by 1B Pedro Alvarez (moving over from third base) and 3B Josh Harrison, a surprising .315 with 13 homers and 18 steals a year ago. Harrison gets the full-time nod at the hot corner after spending time at second, third, shortstop, left field and right field a year ago.  His presence in the lineup and the acquisition of utility man Sean Rodriguez form Tampa Bay give Pittsburgh tremendous flexibility. Francisco Cervelli, acquired from the Yankees, will get a shot at the number-one catching slot after hitting .301 in 49 games last year, but he has health concerns and the Pirates will use Chris Stewart, who hit .294 in 49 games for the Pirates, as a backup on a regular basis.  The pair will have big shoes to fill – replacing free agent Russell Martin (a key part of the Pirates’ recent success), who signed with the Blue Jays in the off season.

The Pirates have a nicely balanced line-up – power, speed and solid defense.  The pitching has potential – the potential to be very good or to cause problems. Gerrit Cole is secure at the top of the rotation.  The 24-year-old went 11-5, 3.65, striking out a batter an inning in 22 starts.  Next in line is left-hander Francisco Liriano (7-10, 3.38) – a veteran with great stuff, but a history of inconsistency and injury problems.  Free-agent signee A.J. Burnett is also expected to take a regular turn, but he is 38-years-old and lost 18 games last year (albeit with the Phillies). Prior to 2014, Burnett had run off nine straight seasons with at least ten victories.  The final two rotation spots appear earmarked for Vance Worley and lefty Jeff Locke (who went a combined 15-10 in 39 starts for the Pirates last season).  Worley could surprise. He went 8-4, 2.85 after starting the season at Triple A. The Pirates’ rotation could get a boost with the return of Charlie Morton (hip surgery last September)/

The bullpen will again be strength, led by closer Mark Melancon (1.39 ERA, 33 saves). Tony Watson (10-2, 1.63) made the All Star team as a setup man last season, John Holdzkom has flashed a 100-mph fastball and Jared Hughes (7-5, 1.96) is solid. Other bullpen assets could include Antonio Bastardo, and Stolmy Pimentel.

The Pirates will contend again and, if the starting pitching holds up, could knock the Cardinals off the top of the Central,

Key Question:  Can the Pirates expect Pedro Alvarez to return to his 30+ home run production of 2012 and 2013?  Alvarez hit only 18 homers last year, in a season that saw defensive concerns lead to a move from 3B to 1B and an injury limit him to 122 games.

Pirates Fact: 3B Josh Harrison hit an NL-leading .372 with runners in scoring position in 2014.

Third – Chicago Cubs

Cubs win!  Cubs win! Cubs win!  They’ll be hearing a lot more of that at Wrigley Field this season – as the Cubs parlay proven All Stars like Anthony Rizzo and Starlin Castro, emerging youngsters like Jorge Soler and Kyle Hendricks, free-agent pickups like Jon Lester and Jason Hammel, trade acquisitions like Miguel Montero and Dexter Fowler, and new Manager Joe Maddon into a contending ball club. Yes, the Cubs – like the White Sox – were busy in the off-season, and Chicago fans could see post-season baseball on both sides of the city.

Let’s start with the rotation.  Free–agent signee southpaw Jon Lester should take the ball on Opening Day. Lester went 16-11, 2.46 for Oakland and Boston a year ago, but more important, he has won at least 15 games six times in the past seven season.  He gives the Cubs a true “ace.” The Cubs may have a second ace-in-waiting in Jake Arrieta (10-5, 2.53 in 25 starts). To round out a solid rotation, they brought back free agent Jason Hammel and have 2013 rookie sensation Kyle Hendricks (7-2, 2.46 in 13 starts for the Cubs). There will be a battle for the fifth spot, probably among Edwin Jackson, Travis Wood and Jacob Turner – all of whom have something to prove after off seasons in 2014.

Roles are still being sorted out in the bullpen, but it appears closing duties will go to Hector Rondon (29 saves). Free agent signee Jason Motte is further removed from Tommy John surgery (2013) and may be closer to the pitcher that recorded 42 saves for the Cardinals in 2012. Motte could be a key contributor in 2015. Neil Ramirez (1.44 ERA), Pedro Strop (2.21), and Justin Grimm (3.78) all took the mound at least 50 times last season.

The offense starts with proven performers 1B Anthony Rizzo (.286-32-78) and SS Starlin Castro (.292-14-65). There are also LF Chris Coghlan (.283-9-41) and newly acquired CF Dexter Fowler (.276-8-35 with the Astros).  After that, the Cubs are looking for production out of a group of highly touted youngster.  Early 2015 Rookie of the Year candidate Jorge Soler should handle RF after going .292-5-20 in 24 games during a 2014 call up.  They also hope for good things from 2B Javier Baez, who showed some power in 2014 (nine home runs in 52 games), but needs to develop plate discipline and patience (.169 average, 95 strikeouts in 213 at bats). If he’s not ready Tommy La Stella, who hit .252 for the Braves, could step in.  Over at third base, the fans – and front office – are waiting for top prospect Kris Bryant, who hit 43 home runs and drove in 138 in 138 games at AA and AAA a year ago. If Bryant’s not quite ready, Luis Valbuena gave the Cubs 16 home runs from the hot corner in 2014.  Catching belongs to 2014 All Star Miguel Montero, acquired in a trade with Arizona.

This is a good looking Cubs team, poised to contend not just for this year, but down the road.  It wouldn’t surprise me to see them take a Wild Card spot or even the division title – particularly if Kris Bryant is “Ready for Wrigley.” Ultimatley, though, the young Cubbies – Soler, Baez and Bryant – may need another year of experience to Chicago over the top.

Key Question:  What can the Cubs expect out of Javier Baez – and how much patience to they have?  Can he harness his swing and reduce his strikeouts?  If so, 35 home runs are not out of the question.  If not, 200 strikeouts are equally in play.  (BBRT note:  The Cubs had 21-year-old shortstop Addison Russell – considered one of baseball’s top prospects – spending time at second base in the Arizona Fall League.)

Cubs Fact:  No team struck out more often than the Cubs in 2014 – a club record 1,477 times.

Fourth – Milwaukee Brewers

Who are the Brewers?  The team that was in first place by 6 ½ games (17 games over .500) on August 17 – or the team that faded at the end and finished just two games over .500 and out of the playoffs? BBRT’s guess is that it’s somewhere in between and that the Brewers will be competitive in 2015 – but not in the playoffs.

Milwaukee fans have the joy of watching energetic CF Carlos Gomez lead off every game. Last season, the Brewers’ sparkplug turned in a .284-23-73 stat line, with 34 steals and 95 runs scored.  He gives the fans everything they expect (and more) from a top-of-the-order catalyst. In 2014, however, Milwaukee fans did not get all they expected from RF Ryan Braun.  A thumb injury hampered him most of the season and he finished .266-19-81.  The Brewers need Braun to get back to the player who routinely delivered 30 home runs and 100 RBI per campaign. The Brewers anticipate steady production from 3B Aramis Ramirez (.285-15-66), new first baseman Adam Lind (.321 for Toronto) and solid defensive backstop Jonathan Lucroy (.301-13-69). Khris Davis delivered some power form left field (22 home runs) and 2B Scooter Gennett hit .289 in 137 games.  The Brewers could use a rebound from SS Jean Segura, a 2103 All Star who slumped offensively

While the offense seems to have offer enough positives – particularly if Braun and Segura bounce back – the pitching offers some concerns.  With number-one starter Yorlando Gallardo gone in a trade with the Rangers, the Brewers rotation seems to come up a little short.  BBRT side note:  One of the young players the Brewers received in the Gallardo trade was SS prospect Luis Sardinas, which may reflect their concern with Segura’s future.  Wily Peralta 17-11, 3.53), Kyle Lohse (13-9, 3.54) and Matt Garza (8-8, 3.64) are the “locks” among the starting staff.  Matt Fiers looked good in ten starts last season, and would seem to have the edge for the fourth spot. Key competitors for the final berth would include Jimmy Nelson and Taylor Jungmann.

The bullpen starts with closer Francisco Rodriguez, who re-signed with the Brewers in late February. Rodriguez saved 44 games for the Brew Crew in 2014.  Jonathan Broxton (seven saves for Cincinnati/Milwaukee a year ago – 27 saves as recently as 2012) should be the main setup man.  Candidates for important roles in the pen include: Jeremy Jeffress, Will Smith, Brandon Kintzler and Jim Henderson.

While the Brewers have a potentially potent offense, there are concerns about both the back of the rotation and the bullpen.  They could surprise, but it would be a surprise. Remember though, with a similar roster, they did lead the division for much of 2014.

Key Question: Is Ryan Braun healthy (thumb) and what does that mean for his production?

Brewers Fact:  The Brewers were 15 games over .500 (70-55) with a three-game lead on August 17, but went 12-25 the rest of the way to finish 82-80 and out of the playoffs.

Fifth – Cincinnati Reds

Johnny Cueto (20-9, 2.25) and Aroldis Chapman (36 saves, 106 strikeouts in 54 innings).  That’s a pretty good start to any pitching staff.  Unfortunately, that pair can’t pitch all the innings, and the Reds are short on proven pitching depth – a situation they didn’t help by trading starters Mat Latos and Alfredo Simon in the off season. Looking at the rotation, the number-two and number-three spots look to go to Homer Bailey (9-5, 3.71, coming off September elbow surgery and possibly not ready on Opening Day) and Mike Leake (11-13, 3.70). After that, things are even less certain, but leading candidates seem to be newcomer Anthony DeSclafani (acquired form the Marlins), Dylan Alexrod (who looked good in a 2014 call up), left-hander Tony Cingrani and Cuban signee Raisel Iglesias.

Aroldis Chapman stands tall as the closer, but the rest of the bullpen suffered from injury and inconsistency in 2014. Despite Chapman’s 2.00 ERA, the Reds’ pen had a 4.11 ERA in 2014 – the NL’s second worst. Among candidates for the pen: Burke Badenhop (2.29 in 70 appearances for Boston), Pedro Villarreal, Sam LeCure, Jumbo Diaz and Manny Parra,  The Reds also signed veteran Kevin Gregg (coming off elbow issues) to a minor league contract.  Gregg – a 12-year MLB veteran – has 177 career saves.  Competition for bullpen spots seems wide open.

The Reds have the potential for a solid offense – starting with corner infielders 1B Joey Votto and 3B Todd Frazier (29 home runs). They need a full season from Votto, who played only 62 games (.255-6-23) last season due to a knee injury. A healthy Votto should deliver 25+ round trippers.  The Reds get added punch from All Star C  Devin Mesoraco, who hit 25 home runs in 114 games, but had a pair of stints on the disabled list.  Newcomer OF Marlon Byrd acquired from the Phillies) also brings 25-homer power to the lineup. Byrd should handle left field with RF going to Jay Bruce (who needs to rebound from a knee injury and his worst season ever) and CF stays with exciting speedster Billy Hamilton (56 steals).  While Bruce hit just .217-18-66 last season, he has proven capable of 30+ homers and 90+ RBI when healthy.  The Reds are strong defensively up the middle, with Zack Cosart at SS and Brandon Phillips at 2B.  They are paying for that defense with offense, however.  Cosart hit just .221 a year ago, while Phillips’ offensive production has been on the decline since his .288-30 home run-32 stolen base season in 2007.  In 2014, Phillips hit .266 with eight home runs and two stolen bases.

Given the competitiveness of the Central Division – and the Reds’ pitching uncertainties, fifth place seems a realistic prediction.

Key Question: Can the Reds’ keep Billy Hamilton fresh?  Hamilton got off to a great start in 2014, hitting .285 with 38 steals before the break, but seemed to wear down – hitting .200 with 18 steals after the break and only .123 with 2 steals in September.  The Reds need a full season of the high-energy Hamilton.

Reds Fact: Despite finishing ten games under .400, the Reds defense had the best fielding percentage in MLB in 2014 (.988) and committed the fewest errors (72, ten fewer than runner up Seattle).

NL WEST

First – Los Angeles Dodgers

Wow! What happened?  The Dodgers won the West again in 2014 – and then traded Matt Kemp and Dee Gordon and let free agent Hanley Ramirez walk. Notably, those moves were consistent with a long-standing Dodger tradition of winning with an emphasis on pitching and defense.

Up the middle, newcomers (acquired through trades) SS Jimmy Rollins and 2B Howie Kendrick should improve the reliability of the defense – and still provide adequate offense.  Rollins hit 17 home runs and stole 28 bases for the Phils last year, while Kendrick hit .293 with seven homers and 14 steals for the Angels. The Dodgers will miss Gordon’s 64 steals, but Rollins/Kendrick should provide comparable offense.  The trading of Kemp (287-25-89) removed some pop from the lineup, but helps clear an OF logjam.  For 2015, we can expect to see an OF (improved defensively) of RF Yasiel Puig (.296-16-60), LF Carl Crawford (.300-8-46 and 16 steals in 105 games) and rookie Joc Perderson in CF.  Pederson hit .303 with 33 home runs and 30 stolen bases (plus, importantly, 100 walks) in 121 games at AAA in 2014.  Even after trading Kemp, the Dodgers have depth in the OF, with Scott Van Slyke and Andre Ethier on the bench. Rounding out the lineup will be Adrian Gonzalez (a four-time Gold Glove winner who can deliver 25-30 home runs) and 3B Jose Uribe (who hit .311 in 2014). Catching duties will be split between Yasmani Grandal and A.J. Elllis. The fact is, the Dodgers improved their defense in the off season and the offense – particularly if Joc Pederson meets expectations – should not miss a beat.

Improved defense will only make the Dodgers superior pitching even better.  It all, of course, starts with Cy Young/MVP winner Clayton Kershaw (generally agreed upon as the best pitcher on the planet). We don’t need to cite statistics here –they’re almost legend already.   Behind him is Zack Grienke (17-8, 2.71), who would be the ace on most staffs.  The three-spot goes to under-recognized Hun-Jin Ryu (14-7, 3.38).  Then it gets a little dicey, as the Dodger are counting on a free-agent signees Brandon McCarthy and Brett Anderson – who have both been injury prone in the past.

In the bullpen, incumbent closer Kenley Jansen (44 saves) will likely miss the first month of the season (foot surgery).  There are plenty of hurlers to audition for temporary replacement status including former closers Brandon League (72 saves since 2011), and J.P. Howell (17 saves for Tampa Bay in 2009).  Other options include hard- throwing Chris Hatcher and reliable Joel Peralta, both picked up in off season trades.  Once a closer is selected the bullpen roles should take shape.  It’s a bit unsettling, but not unworkable.

Key Question:  Who will fill the closer’s role until Kenley Jansen returns?

Dodgers Fact:  The Dodgers hold the MLB franchise record for no-hitters at 22 – with Josh Beckett and Clayton Kershaw contributing no-no’s in 2014.

Second – San Diego Padres

In 2014, the San Diego Padres finished third in the West (77-85) despite scoring the fewest runs (535) in the NL (in MLB, actually). How did they do it?  The Padres gave up the second-fewest runs in the NL (523) and only the Nationals in the NL bested their team ERA of 3.27.  Going into the 2015 season, the Padres actually improved that sterling pitching – the addition of premium free agent James Shields – and dramatically added to their offensive punch.  They are ready to contend. BBRT is ready to go out on a limb and pick the Padres to finish ahead of the defending World Series Champion San Francisco Giants.

On the mound, veteran free-agent signee James Shields (14-8, 3.21 for the Royals) will not only be the staff ace on the field, he will also provide the kind of veteran leadership that will make the Padres’ young staff even better. Shields joins a rotation that should include Andrew Cashner (5-7, 2.55 in 19 starts), All Star Tyson Ross (13-14, 2.81), and veteran innings-eater Ian Kennedy (13-13, 3.63).  The final spot in the rotation is likely to go to Odrisamer Despaigne (4-7, 3.36) or free-agent signee Brandon Morrow. Cashner has proven to be an injury concern in the past, so both Despaigne and Morrow may see time in the rotation.  The Padres also signed free agent starter Josh Johnson – who missed the 2014 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Johnson, who has a career 58-45, 3.40 record over nine seasons, is expected to be back in late May of early June – and could give San Diego a mid-season boost.

The bullpen – and manager Bud Black’s ability to get the most out of it – will be a Padres’’ strength again (an NL-best 2.73 bullpen ERA in 2014). Closer Joaquin Benoit notched 11 saves with a 1.49 ERA – but is 37-years-old and did miss time with a shoulder injury last year.  In Benoit’s absence, set up man Kevin Quackenbush picked up a handful of saves plus one (six total). Also in the pen are Alex Torres, Nick Vincent, Dale Thayer and Shawn Kelly (trade with Yankees).

While Shields represents a notable improvement in the pitching, the offensive upgrade is far more remarkable.  Trades with the Rays, Braves and Dodgers give the Padres an all-new – and much more explosive –outfield.  Left field now belongs to former Brave Justin Upton ( .270-29-102), center goes to former Ray Wil Myers (2013 AL Rookie of the Year, who missed time with a wrist injury and hit six homers with 35 RBI last season) and former Dodger Matt Kemp (.287-25-89) will hold down right. How much of an improvement is that? Last season’s three most often used starters in the Padres’ outfield – Seth Smith, Will Venable and Cameron Maybin – combined for fewer home runs and RBI (21-96) than Upton alone.  Around the infield, we should see Yonder Alonso (1B), Jedd Gyorko (2B), Alexi Armarista (SS) and Yangervis Solarte or Will Middlebrooks (3B). Gyorko is a key piece.  The second sacker hit .210 with just 10 home runs last season – after a .249, 23-homer season as a rookie in 2013.  A rebound to 15-20 round trippers would further boost the Padres’ offense.  Third base will be a competition between Solarte (.260 with 10 home runs as a rookie) and Middlebrooks, whom the Padres hope can rebound from an off season. Newcomer Derek Norris will handle the catching. All in all, the changes should not only improve the Padres on the field, but also bring a new, more confident, attitude to the club house.

The Padres look greatly improved and ready to move up to second place.

Key Question:  Will the new outfield deliver offense as expected, or will pitcher-friendly Petco Power sap their power and confidence?

Padres Fact:  In 2014, fewer home runs were hit in Petco Park (101) than any other MLB park

Third – San Francisco Giants

The Giants have won three World Series titles in the last five years (2010-2012-2014), so no one could blame the defending world champions if they opted for stability in the off season. And the Giants HAVE been pretty quiet since October. They did lose a key player – and part of the club’s character – when free agent Pablo Sandoval (.279-16-73 and .429 in the World Series) signed with the Red Sox.  San Francisco will also miss OF Michael Morse’s nearly identical production (.279-16-61).  But they did go out and pick up replacements for both.  They added 3B Casey McGehee (trade with the Marlins), last year’s NL Comeback Player of the Year, to replace Sandoval. McGehee (four home runs) has less power than Sandoval, but did hit .287 with 76 RBI. (BBRT note: McGehee will also represent a step back on defense.)  Nori Aoki (free agency, Royals) will take Morse’s spot on the roster. Like McGehee, less power, but a steady bat (.285 with 17 steals in 2014).  The rest of the lineup is pretty much intact, not a bad thing after a World Series win (unless, of course, your main opposition improves).  For power, the Giants will look to C Buster Posey (.311-22-89), reliable and energetic RF Hunter Pence (.277-20-74, with 13 steals)and 1B Brandon Belt – a slick defender, who hit the disabled list three times last season, but still managed 12 home runs in 61 games.  A healthy Belt should provide 20-HR power.  CF Angel Pagan (.300 with 16 steals in 96 games) should lead off.  Pagan, however, has been injury prone and, in his absence, we could see Aoki at leadoff and backup George Blanco and Juan Perez (both solid defenders) in the OF.  Joe Panik (who took over 2B in June, defending ably and hitting .305 in 73 games) is back, as is shortstop Brandon Crawford, who has  a high ceiling, but needs to add consistently to his game in the field and at the plate.\

Not much has changed on the mound either, where the rotation will be led by World Series’ hero Madison Bumgarner (18-10, 2.98).  After that there is considerable potential – but just as many question marks. Matt Cain, All Star and 16-game winner as recently as 2013, had elbow surgery in July and finished 2-7, 4.18. Jake Peavy pitched well after coming over from Boston (6-4, 2.17), but was 1-9 with the Sox. Tim Hudson won nine games and pitched well (3.57), but turns 40 in July. Ryan Vogelsong made a career-high 32 starts, but won only eight times (but did win 27 games in 2011-12). Tim Lincecum, despite a 12-9, 4.74 record was inconsistent last season and is now four seasons away from his last winning record.

In the bullpen, the Giants will look to Santiago Casilla (19 of 23 in save situation after taking over the ninth-inning job in mid-season).  Also returning are Sergio Romo, who lost the closer job, but then straightened out and did fine as a setup man in the second half; Yu Petit, who proved considerably more effective as reliever (1.84 ERA) than a starter (5.03); Jean Machi; Javier Lopez; and Jeremy Affeldt.  Ultimately, the bullpen should be a strength for the 2015 club.

It’s hard to argue with success – three World Series titles in five years. However, those titles all came in even-numbered years.  This is an odd-numbered year, and while the roster has been pretty stable, issues with the starting rotation and roster improvements in Los Angeles and San Diego seem likely to keep the Giants out of the playoffs.

Key Question: How much will the Giants miss Kung Fu Panda’s (Pablo Sandoval) bat, glove and attitude – on the field, in the club house and at the ticket counter?

Giants Fact: The Giants won the first-ever regular-season interleague game, beating the AL’s Texas Rangers 4-3 on June 12, 1997.  Mark Gardner got the win, Rod Beck the save and RF Stan Javier the game-winning RBI.  Lead-off hitter CF Darryl Hamilton singled on a 1-1 offering from the Rangers’ Darren Oliver in the first inning to get the first-ever interleague hit. Javier also had interleague play’s first home run.

Forth – Colorado Rockies

As usual, the Colorado Rockies seem to have plenty of offense – and the kind of pitching that mandates they’ll need it.  The Rockies finished 30 games under .500 a year ago – and had MLB’s worst team ERA at 4.84, while leading the NL in runs scored.  Still, the losses weren’t all about the pitching.  The Rockies also led the majors in player trips to the disabled list (26).  They didn’t do much in the off-season (in fact, the most meaningful off-season change may have been the departure of RF Michael Cuddyer).  Colorado is counting on better health to lead to a better record.

At Coors field, it all starts with offense – and, when healthy, the Rockies have plenty of it.  SS Troy Tulowitzki and CF Carlos Gonzalez need to lead the way.  The pair were both hit by the injury bug and played a combined 161 games a year ago – putting up 35 home runs and 90 RBI.  Healthy, they can put up double that production – and they are both solid defenders.  Keys to the offense also include CF and lead-off man Charlie Blackmon (.282 with 19 home runs, 82 runs scored, 72 RBI and 28 steals); former AL MVP , 2014 NL Batting champ and plus defender Justin Morneau (.319-17-82) at 1B; and Gold Glover Nolan Arenado (.287-18-61 in 111 games – finger fracture) at 3B,. LF Corey Dickerson surprised a few people by hitting .312 and leading the Rockies in home runs with 24 in just his second MLB season.  Dickerson’s emergence makes Drew Stubbs a valuable fourth outfielder – especially given the Rockies’ injury history.  In 2014, Stubbs hit .289 with 15 home runs.  Second baseman DJ LeMahieu’s contributions get lost in the Rockies’ offensive fireworks (he hit just .267), but he’s the NL’s 2014 Gold Glove winner at 2B. The Rockies added more defense when they picked up free-agent catcher Nick Hundley – a solid defensive catcher and game caller.  Wow, plenty of offense, sound defense – sounds pretty good so far.

When it comes to pitching – the key word in Colorado is “Ouch!”  The injury bug and the Coors Field atmosphere both worked against the Rockies’ staff in 2014, and the end result was the NL’s highest ERA – both among starters and relievers.  That does not win many ball games. The rotation is Jorge De La Rosa (14-11, 4.10 and a surprising 10-2, 3.08 in his Coors Field innings).  After De La Rosa, there is a notable drop off.  Jhoulys Chacin should be the number-two man, but was limited to eleven 2014 starts (1-7, 4.50) due to rotator cuff issues. If healthy, he could return to his 14-10, 3.47 form of 2013.  The Rockies did sign Kyle Kendrick, who won ten games for the Phillies a year ago, and he could slide into the number-three sport.  Others in the running for the rotation are Jordan Lyles (7-4, 4.33, who missed time due to a broken bone in his non-pitching hand); Tyler Matzek (6-11, 4.05); Charlie Bergman (3-5, 5.93) and prospect Eddie Butler.  We may see Colorado auditioning starters into the season. Last year, the team used 15 different starters.

The bullpen should see plenty of work once again.  LaTroy Hawkins saved 23 games in 26 opportunities, but he is 42-years-old.  The Rockies are hoping for better things from reliever Boone Logan (6.84 ERA) and Rex Brothers (5.59). There is hope.  Logan is one more season removed elbow surgery and was 5-2, 3.23 in 2013, while Brothers (once considered a closer-in-waiting) had a 2.82 career ERA going into 2014.  Tommy Kahnle, Adam Ottavino and Brooks Brown are also expected to find spots in the bullpen,

All in all, the Rockies – if healthy, have plenty of offense and solid defense to improve on their record – especially if the pitching staff can induce ground balls at Coors.  Ultimately, however, they will need to add pitching to make win enough games to contend.

Key Question:  How long can 42-year-old LaTroy Hawkins keep getting batters out?

Rockies Fact:  No pitcher likes Coors Field more than Jorge De La Rosa.  He is 45-14, 3.98 for his career in the hitters’ paradise. (His overall career record 84-68, 4.60)

Fifth – Arizona Diamondbacks

The Diamondback finished last in NL West last year and they did do some work on their problem areas in the off season. Arizona had the league’s second-worst ERA (only the Rockies and Coors Field – finished worse).  They set about to fix that – trading away C Miguel Montero, SS Did Gregorius and P Wade Miley – and picking up a handful of hurlers, including at least three likely to be in the 2015 rotation. They also looked to the offense – signing international free agent Cuban Yasmany Tomas.  The 24-year-old was signed to a six-year, $68.5 million contract and is expected to bat in the middle of the lineup and provide a solid power source for the D-backs. (In his last three seasons in the Cuban National Series, Tomas hit .293, with 40 home runs and 137 RBI in 215 games.)  Tomas should provide a boost to D-backs, who hit the NL’s third-fewest home runs a year ago.

Let’s look at the rotation.  At the top will be Jason Collmenter (11-9, 3.46), whose fastball tops out in the high 80s, but who manages to keep hitters off balance.  That contrasts with newcomer Rubby De Le Rosa (gotta love that name), who has been known to hit triple digits with his heater, but is also coming back form 2012 Tommy John surgery. De Le Rosa was 4-8, 4.43 in 19 games for the Red Sox in 2014. Jeremy Hellickson (AL Rookie of the Year in 2011) should also be in the mix. He logged double-digits in victories and at least 29 starts and 170+ innings per year for Tampa Bay for three years (2010-13), before surgery to remove bone chips held him to 13 starts and one victory in 2014. Allen Webster is another newcomer who should be in the D-backs’ rotation. He was 5-3, 5.03 for the Red Sox and 4-4, 3.10 at Triple A last season. Webster is a hard-thrower who needs to harness his control. Competing for the number-five spot will be returnees Victor Nuno, Chase Anderson and Trevor Cahill. Anderson went 9-7, 4.01 in 21 starts last year, but Nuno may be the most interesting candidate. The southpaw went 0-7 in 14 starts after coming over from the Yankees – but averaged six innings per outing and put up a 3.76 ERA.  Pat Corbin, an All Star and 14-game winner in 2013, is returning from Tommy John surgery could provide a boost in the second half.

Arizona will depend on Addison Reed (32 saves) to close games.  Getting to Reed will be the responsibility of (among others) side-armer Brad Ziegler (5-3, 3.49 in 68 games); Evan Marshall (4-4, 2.74 in 57 games); and former starter Oliver Perez (3-4, 2.91 in 68 games). The numbers at the top of the pen look okay, but overall Arizona had the third-worst NL bullpen ERA last year and the second–worst ratio of saves to save opportunities.

The lineup has offensive potential – starting at the corners with Yasmany Tomas, expected to provide plenty of power at 3B, and 1B Paul Goldschmidt (back in the heart of the order and healthy). Goldschmidt put up a .300-19-69 line, with nine steals, in just 107 games (fractured hand). In 2013, Goldschmidt went .302-36-125, with 15 stolen bases (and a Gold Glove).  Expect him to be a force in 2015.  BBRT sees an MVP Award somewhere in Goldschmidt’s future.  Other power sources include RF Mark Trumbo (a free swinger who delivered 14 home runs – and 89 strikeouts – in 89 games) and LF David Peralta (.286, with eight home runs in 88 games as a rookie). The Diamondbacks also look set at the leadoff spot with CF A.J. Pollock, who was on a tear (.302-7-24, with 14 steals in 75 games), before a broken hand cost him more than half the season. The middle of the infield (2B-SS) will be sorted out among Aaron Hill, Chris Owings and slick-fielding prospect Nick Ahmed.  If Ahmed shows he can hit major league pitching at an acceptable rate, BBRT expects him at shortstop and Owings at 2B. If Ahmed needs more seasoning, Owings can move to short and veteran Hill can handle second.  Tuffy Gosewisch (.225-1-7 in 41 games) talks over at catcher for the traded Montero – primarily on the basis of his defensive skills.

Overall, the Diamondbacks have enough offense to make it interesting, but their pitching is likely to keep them from being competitive.

Key Question:  Will Yasmany Tomas live up to his contract – can he provide the promised power at the plate and can he handle third base (There’s always LF)?

Diamondbacks Fact:  Rookies played an MLB-high 656 games for the injury-plagued Diamondbacks last season.

So there’s BBRT’s National League predictions. Again, for a look at BBRT’s American League predictions, click here.

I tweet baseball @DavidBBRT

Coming soon – a look at how major league team’s set up their promotion and giver-away schedules. 

The 2015 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot is now in the hands of the members of the Baseball Writers Association of America, with the results to be reported January 7, 2015.  As in 2014, there are some strong newcomers and, also like last year (when first-timers Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine headed the ballot), this year’s most likely first-ballot electees are pitchers – Randy Johnson and Pedro Martinez. Other big names making their first appearance on the ballot include: Nomar Garciaparra, Gary Sheffield, John Smoltz, Carlos Delgado and Troy Percival.

In this post, I’ll take a look at how BBRT would vote (if I had a ballot), as well as BBRT’s predictions for the actual BBWAA results. By way of review, each BBWAA member can vote for up to ten players, and a player must receive 75 percent support to earn election. In an upcoming post, BBRT will look at the Golden Era Hall of Fame voting.

If recent balloting is any indication, we can expect a significant number of writers will decline to vote for players suspected of (or having admitted to) PED use, which seems a legitimate reason.  Others will hold back votes from first-timers to make a statement on “what it takes to be a first-ballot inductee” (a less legitimate reason than the PED issue) and still others may send in blank ballots (for no apparent reason). So, let’s start with a quick list of what BBRT’s ballot would look like.  Then we’ll move on to my predictions for the actual BBWAA results and, finally, take a more detailed look at the players who would garner BBRT’s votes.

BBRT’s Hall of Fame Selections – if I had a vote – In Priority Order

First a quick list, later a more detailed look at BBRT’s selections.

Group One – Should Be No Doubt

1. Randy Johnson– 303 wins, 4,875 strikeouts (second all-time), five Cy Young Awards (including four consecutive 1999-2002)

2. Pedro Martinez– 219 wins, three Cy Young Awards, five-time ERA leader

3. Craig Biggio– 3,060 hits, 1,884 runs scored, 291 HRs, 414 steals

Group Two – Debatable, But Clearly Deserving Support

4.  John Smoltz – Only pitcher in MLB history to top both 200 wins and 150 saves, led NL in wins as a starter (24 in 1966) and saves as a reliever (55 in 2002), compiled a 15-4 post-season record (with four saves for good measure)

5. Lee Smith– 478 saves (third all- time), three times league saves leader

6. Mike Piazza – .308 career average, most home runs by a catcher, 12-time All Star

7. Jeff Kent – Most home runs by any second baseman, nine more RBI than Mickey Mantle, 2000 NL MVP

Group Threee – More Debatable, But Would Get BBRT’s Vote

8.  Jeff Bagwell – 449 HRs, 202 steals, 1,529 RBI, 1991 NL Rookie of the Year, 1994 NL MVP, twice recorded seasons of 40 or more HRs and 30 or more steals

9.  Mike Mussina – 270 wins, five-time All Star, seven-time Gold Glove winner, six times finished in top five in Cy Young voting

10.  Tim Raines– 808 stolen bases (fifth all time), 2,605 hits (.294 career average), 1,571 runs scored.

 

BBRT Predictions as to Whom the Baseball Writers Will Vote In

BBRT projects that the BBWAA, being  stingier than BBRT with their votes, will elect:

• Randy Johnson,
• Pedro Martinez
• Craig Biggio

I also see two dark horse candidates for 2015, in this order of likelihood:

• John Smoltz’ post-season record may give him just the push he needs to become a “first-ballot” inductee, but BBRT expects it to be very close
• Mike Piazza, with 62.2 percent of the vote one year ago, is a potential dark horse candidate to make the jump to 75 percent – but will more likely move up to about 66-68 percent  

Big names associated with the PED issue – they will not be named here, but the vote totals will tell you – are likely to remain on the sidelines, as emotions related to PED-use continue to run high. (In BBRT’s line of thinking, there is a difference between proven and suspected PED use – and between solid evidence and rumors.)   In addition,  players like Nomar Garciaparra (1997 Rookie of the Year, six-time All Star, two-time batting champion), Carlos Delgado (473 home runs, 1,512 RBI)  and Troy Percival (358 saves, ninth all-time) are likely fall victim to the higher standards some voters require of first-ballot inductees.

I expect a handful of players to move closer to the 75-percent mark, including Mike Mussina, Mike Piazza (if he doesn’t get in), Jeff Bagwell, Tim Raines and Jeff Kent.   Note:  All five of these players would get BBRT’s vote this year.

 

A More Detailed Look at BBRT’s Selections from This Year’s HOF Ballot

Should Be Elected Easily

BBRT believes this first group of players should be locks for 2015 Hall of Fame induction.

 

 

Randy Johnson (LHP, 1988-2009 – first time on ballot)

Maybe a good nickname helps (especially if you notch 300 wins on the mound). Last year’s HOF ballot was headed by Greg “The Professor” Maddux and his 355 career victories.  This year’s ballot features Hall of Fame shoo-in Randy “The Big Unit” Johnson, who notched 303 wins (versus 166 losses) and 4,875 strikeouts (second all-time) in 4,135 innings pitched.  The 6’ 10”, 225-pound Johnson was an intimidating specter and force on the mound. He was known for a blazing fastball and hard slider, and his 10.61 strikeouts per nine innings ranks number-one among qualifying starting pitchers.  Johnson, who held hitters to a .221 average (eighth all-time), was a ten-time All-Star and five-time Cy Young Award winner (second only to Roger Clemens). He led his league in strikeouts nine times (topping 300 in a season six times), ERA four times, complete games four times, winning percentage four times and victories once.  He ran off four straight NL Cy Young Awards (1999-2002) and, over those four seasons, went 81-27, 2.48 with 1,417 strikeouts in 1,030 innings pitched.  Johnson threw two no-hitters (one – on May 18, 2004 – a perfect game.) He was also the 2001 World Series MVP – going 3-0. 1.04 in three starts (striking out 19 in 17 1/3 innings).

Johnson pitched for the  Montreal Expos (1988-89); the Seattle Mariners (1989-98); Houston Astros (1998); Arizona Diamondbacks (1999-2004 and 2007-08); the New York Yankees (2005-06); and the San Francisco Giants (2009).

Randy Johnson’s  best season: 2002 Arizona Diamondbacks … Johnson earned his fourth consecutive Cy Young Award while leading the NL in wins (24 – versus just five losses),  winning percentage (.828), ERA (2.32), complete games (eight), innings pitched (260) and strikeouts (334). It was also his fourth consecutive season of 300+ strikeouts.

Randy Johnson’s most unusual season: In 1998, Johnson started the season with the Seattle Mariners (for whom he had won 20 games the year before – not to mention the Cy Young Award in 1995). There had been some conflict over his contract and both Seattle and Johnson got off to a slow start.  On July 31, the Mariners traded Johnson to Houston for three talented minor leaguers (Freddy Garcia, Carlos Guillen and John Halama), who went on to put together a combined 38 major league seasons.  At the time, the Mariners were at the bottom of the AL West with a 48-60 record, while the Astros led the NL Central at 65-44.  Johnson ended July with a 9-10, 4.33 ERA record in 23 starts.  He turned his season around with the Astros, going 10-1, 1.28 in 11 starts – helping Houston to a 102-60 record and the Division title.

Pedro Martinez (RHP, 1992-2009 – first time on ballot)

Pedro Martinez, like Randy Johnson, was known as a power pitcher – twice topping 300 strikeouts in a season.  He brought his power from a different platform, generously listed at 5’11’, 170-pounds.  Martinez mowed hitters down by coupling excellent control with a “plus” fastball, cutter, curveball and circle change.   Early in his career, Martinez’ fastball was clocked in the mid-to-high 90s, while later he used his combination of pitch selection and control to continue to win with a fastball in the high 80s.

Martinez ran up a 219-100 record, a 2.93 ERA and 3,154 strikeouts in 18 seasons.  Among qualifying starting pitchers, only Randy Johnson recorded more strikeouts per nine innings than Martinez’ 10.04. He captured three Cy Young Awards (1997, 1999, 2000) and was an eight-time All Star.  His HOF resume also includes a league-low ERA in five seasons, and a league-high in strikeouts three times.  Martinez, with 760 career bases on balls, is one of only four pitchers to log 3,000+ strikeouts with fewer than 1,000 walks (Curt Schilling – 3,116 Ks/ 711 BBs; Fergie Jenkins – 3,192/997; Greg Maddux – 3,371/999). Martinez held opposing hitters to a .214 average over his career – the fourth-lowest in MLB history.  His .687 winning percentage is the third-highest all-time and second-highest in the modern era (behind Whitey Ford’s .690; 238-106). Martinez logged a 6-4 post-season record, with a 3.46 ERA and 96 strikeouts in 96 1/3 innings.

Martinez pitched for the Los Angeles Dodgers (1992-93); Montreal Expos (1994-97); Boston Red Sox (1998-2004); New York Mets (2005-08); and Philadelphia Phillies (2009).

Pedro Martinez’ best season: 1999 Boston Red Sox … Martinez led the AL in wins (23), winning percentage (23-4, .852), ERA (2.07) and strikeouts (313 in just 213 1/3 innings), while winning his second Cy Young Award.

Pedro Martinez’ remarkable run:  After going 17-8 with an NL-best 1.90 ERA for Montreal in 1997, Martinez was traded to the Boston Red Sox for pitcher Carlos Pavano and a Player to Be Named Later (Tony Armas, Jr.). In his time with the Red Sox, Martinez went 117-37, with a 2.52 ERA and 1,683 strikeouts in 1,383 1/3 innings.

 

Craig Biggio (2B/C/OF, 1988-2007 – third time on the ballot)

It takes 75 percent of the vote to enter the “Hall” and, last year, Biggio just missed at 74.8 percent (two votes shy).  This should be his year.  In 20 seasons, Biggio recorded 3,060 base hits (20th all time), 1,884 runs (15^4h all time), hit 291 home runs and stole 414 bases.  He was a seven-time All Star and a four-time Gold Glove winner, who spent notable time at second base, catcher and in the outfield.  He led the NL in runs twice, doubles three times, stolen bases once and hit-by-pitch five times.  His 668 doubles are the most ever by a right-handed hitter (and fifth all time). He holds the NL record for home runs to lead off a game (53) and for hit-by-pitch (285).  Biggio played his entire 18-year MLB career with the Houston Astros.

Craig Biggio’s best year:  1998 Houston Astros … 160 games,  .325 average , 210 hits, 123 runs, 20 HRs, 88 RBI, league-leading 51 doubles, 50 stolen bases.

Craig Biggio fact:  Biggio is one of only two players to hit 50 doubles and steal 50 bases in the same season.

 

Deserving Candidates Who Also Would Get BBRT’s Vote (If I had one)

This next group of candidates consists of players whose entrance into the Hall of Fame might prompt some discussion and debate – but when the discussion is done, BBRT is confident they should be seen as deserving of election.

John Smoltz (RHP, 1988-2009 – 1^st time on ballot)

Smoltz is the only MLB hurler to notch 200+ wins (213) and 150+ saves (154) in his career – as well as one of only two pitchers to have a 20-win season and a 50-save season.  In 1996, he went 24-8 as a starter for the Braves, leading the NL in wins, winning percentage (24-6, .750), strikeouts( 276)  and innings pitched (253 2/3). Five seasons later, after Tommy John surgery, Smoltz led the NL in saves with 55, while going 3-2, 3.25 with 85 strikeouts in 80 1/3 innings as the Braves’ closer.   The eight-time All Star won the NL Cy Young Award in 1996 and was the Rolaids Relief Man of the Year in 2005. He led the NL in wins twice, winning percentage twice, strikeouts twice, innings pitched twice and saves once.  He finished his career at 213-155, 3.33, with 154 saves and 3,084 strikeouts in 3,473 innings pitched.  Smoltz was a beast in the post season, appearing in 41 games and recording 15 wins (versus just four losses), four saves, 199 strikeouts (in 209 innings pitched) and a 2.67 ERA.

Might be a little shy of support from those who place heavy emphasis on first-ballot selection, but has a chance to make it in this year.

Smoltz’ best year:  1996 Braves … League-leading wins (24), winning percentage (24-6 .750), and strikeouts (276). Won the Cy Young Award.  Followed up by going 4-1, 0.95 in the post season – striking out 33 in 38 innings.

Smoltz’ fact:  Smoltz was pretty much equally effective at home and on the road.  In 363 home appearances, he went 108-77, 3.29.  In 360 road appearances, he went 105-78, 3.37.

 

Lee Smith (RHP, 1980-97 – 13th time on the ballot)

I’d love for this to be lucky number thirteen for Lee Smith.  However, last year Smith got only 29.9 percent of the vote, and that’s a lot of ground to make up.  Smith’s  478 saves put him third on the all-time list (he was number-one when he retired after the 1997 season).  He recorded 13 consecutive seasons (in an 18-year career) of 25 or more saves, a 3.03 lifetime ERA and 1,251 strikeouts in 1,289 innings pitched; led his league in saves four times; made seven All Star teams; and was the Rolaids Relief Man of the Year in three seasons.  Smith pitched for the Chicago Cubs (1980-87); Boston Red Sox (1988-90); St. Louis Cardinals (1990-93); New York Yankees (1993); Baltimore Orioles (1994); California Angels (1995-96); Cincinnati Reds (1996); Montreal Expos (1997).

With the third most saves all time, Smith gets BBRT’s vote.

Lee Smith’s best season:  1991, Cardinals … 6-3, 2.34 ERA, 47 saves, 73 innings pitched, 67 strikeouts.

Lee Smith fact: Smith is one of only 16 pitchers to appear in 1,000 or more games.

 

Mike Piazza (C, 1992-2007 – Third year on the ballot)

Mike Piazza’s stat sheet includes a .308 career average, 427 home runs (a MLB-record 396 as a catcher), a Rookie of the Year Award, 12 All Star Selections and ten Silver Slugger Awards as the best hitter at his position. Over his career, he collected 2,127 hits, 1,335 RBI and scored 1,048 runs. He hit .242, with six home runs and 15 RBI in 32 post season games.  Piazza got 62.2 percent of the vote last year and should improve this year – maybe even to the required 75 percent.

Piazza’s best year: 1997, Dodgers – .362 avg., 201 hits, 104 runs, 40 HR, 124 RBI.

Piazza fact: Piazza’s career defied expectations:  He was the 1,390th player selected in the 1988 MLB draft (62nd round). Five years later, he was a major league All Star, NL Rookie of the Year and a Silver Slugger winner.

 

Jeff Kent (2B/3B/1B, 1992-2008 – second year on the ballot)

Despite the fact that only 15.2 percent of the writers voted for Kent last year (his first on the ballot), BBRT believes Kent is a deserving candidate.  Kent holds the all-time MLB record for home runs by a second baseman (351 of his 377 career round trippers were hit while playing second base). He has a healthy .290 career batting average and his 1,518 RBI are 51^st  all time (for perspective, Kent drove in nine more runs than Mickey Mantle). Kent was a five-time All Star, four-time Silver Slugger winner and 2000 NL MVP.  He hit .276, with nine home runs and 23 RBI in 49 post-season games.

Kent has the credentials, but BBRT has a hunch the writers will make keep him waiting – a couple of Gold Gloves, at this traditionally defense-oriented position, would have really helped his case.

Jeff Kent’s best season: SF Giants, 2000:  159 games, 196 hits, .334 average, 33 home runs, 125 RBI, 114 runs, 12 steals. NL MVP.

Jeff Kent fact: Kent hit .276, with nine home runs and 23 RBI in 49 post-season games.

 

More Debatable, But Would Still Get BBRT’s Vote

More debate is likely to swirl around this group.  They may be on the cusp when it comes to election (some for this year, some overall); but BBRT would use all ten votes.

Jeff Bagwell (1B, 1991-2005 – fifth year on the ballot)

Jeff Bagwell earned Hall of Fame consideration with a 15-year career that included 2,314 hits, 449 home runs, 202 stolen bases and a .297 average – along with a Rookie of the Year Award, a Most Valuable Player Award, one Gold Glove and four All Star selections.  He also twice recorded seasons of 40 or more homers and 30 or more steals. Bagwell’s chances are hurt a bit by the fact that first base has been manned by so many power hitters over time.  Bagwell played his entire career with the Houston Astros.

BBRT would vote for Bagwell, who picked up 54.3 percent of the vote last year and should improve this season.

Bagwell’s best season:  Bagwell really gives us two good choices here.  1994 Astros …  Baggy hit .368, with 39 homers and 15 stolen bases, while leading the NL in runs (104) and RBI (116) and earning a Gold Glove.  Bagwell also won the NL MVP Award despite playing just 110 of the Astros’ 144 games in the strike-shortened season.   2000 Astros …  .310 average, 183 hits, 152 runs, 132 RBI, 47 home runs.

Bagwell’s durability: Jeff Bagwell played all 162 of the Astros’ regular season games in four of his fifteen seasons – and topped 155 games ten times.

 

Mike Mussina (RHP, 1991-2008 – second year on the ballot)

It’s another tough year on the ballot for Mike Mussina.  In his first year (2014), he was overshadowed by fellow first-timers Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine  (both 300-game winners). This year, Mussina must contend with the first HOF ballot appearances of Randy Johnson (another 300-game winner) and Pedro Martinez.  The writers are likely to ask Mussina to wait, but BBRT would cast a vote for “Moose.”  Last year,  Mussina garnered just 20.3 percent of the vote.  Expect improvement this year.

Mussina built a 270-153 record, a career 3.68 ERA and 2,813 strikeouts over 18 seasons. While only a 20-game winner once (in his final season, at age 39), Mussina won 18 or 19 games five times, leading the AL with 19 wins in 1995. He was a five-time All Star and a seven-time Gold Glove winner. While the lack of a Cy Young Award on his resume may hurt him, he finished his career 117 games over .500 – and history says 100 or more wins than losses is good for a ticket to the HOF.

Mike Mussina’s best season:  2008 New York Yankees … Mussina may have saved his best for last.  In his final season, at age 39, he recorded his first twenty-win campaign.  That year, Mussina went 20-9, 3.37 – and proved his durability by leading the AL in starts with 34.

Mussina fact: In his first three full seasons  in the major leagues (1992-94) Mussina put up a .700 or better winning percentage each year (.783, .700, .762). His record over that span – for the Orioles – was 48-16.

 

Tim Raines (OF, 1979-2001 –  eighth year on the ballot.)

Tim Raines hit .294 over his 23-season MLB career, collecting 2,605 hits, 1,571 runs scored, 170 home runs, 980 RBI and 808 stolen bases (#5 all time).  Raines was successful on 83.5 percent of his career steal attempts. He was a seven-time All Star, led the NL in stolen bases four consecutive years (1981-84), had a streak of six seasons with at least 70 steals, won the NL batting title in 1986 with a .334 average, led the league in runs scored twice and doubles once. In 34 post-season games, he hit .270 with one home run, six RBI, 18 runs scored and three steals.

More debatable than Piazza or Bagwell, but Raines would get BBRT’s vote.

Raines’ best season: BBRT did not select Raines’ 1986 batting title year, but rather his 1983 season with the Expos … 156 games, 179 hits, .298 average, league-leading 133 runs scored, 11 homers, 71 RBI, league-leading 90 steals.

Raines was always running:  Over 23 seasons, Raines average 35 steals a year (and that included six seasons in which he played in less than half his team’s games).  Over his MLB career – from age 19 to 42 – Raines averaged 52 stolen bases for every 162 games played.

So, there’s  BBRT’s regular Hall of Fame “selections.” Again, coming soon, a look at the Golden Era HOF election.

BBRT invites your comments on the 2015 Hall of Fame election.

I tweet baseball @DavidBBRT

The World Series is over and “The Awards Season” is upon us.  MLB, along with sponsoring organizations, has already begun recognizing the best in hitting, fielding and pitching – witness the recent Gold Glove and Silver Slugger Awards.  In the near future, we’ll see such recognitions as MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year and Manager of the Year.  (The Baseball Bloggers Alliance has also announced its honorees in those major categories, which you will find by clicking here.)

In this post, BBRT will focus on the least glamorous, most often overlooked (or undervalued) segment of the regular season awards – those honoring defensive excellence. Why start with defensive recognition?  Several reasons:

1) The awards for defense are already out there.

2) With my favorite ballpark experience being a tightly played 1-0, 2-1 or 3-2 game, defense has always been a personal passion.

3) Defense counts. (Consider:  The Orioles and Royals each had an MLB-best three Gold Glovers and were the last two teams standing in the AL – The Cardinals and Royals led their leagues in Defensive Runs Saved and both made the “final four.”)  

4) As a Twins’ fan, I miss those days when the Twins were dominating the AL Central and Baseball Tonight’s Web Gems.

So, let get on with a look at the 2014 awards for defensive excellence.  The three most significant defensive recognitions are:

• Rawlings Gold Glove … This is the most senior (and most recognized and publicized) defensive award, established in 1957. It is also considered the most subjective, with 75 percent of the results dependent on a vote of MLB managers and coaches and 25 percent on statistical defensive metrics (provided by MLB and the Society for American Baseball Research – SABR). The Gold Glove is awarded to one player at each position in each league.
• The Fielding Bible Awards … Established in 2006, the Fielding Bible Awards are considered to be less subjective than the Gold Gloves. These awards are voted on by a panel of “sabermetrically” inclined and experienced journalists (and bloggers) – including such respected observers and reporters on the national pastime as Bill James, Peter Gammons and Joe Posnanski. The Fieldeing Bible Award is given to one player at each position.
• Wilson Defensive Player(s) of the Year … Established in 2012, this recognition is based on scouting reports, traditional defensive statistics and sabermetric measures like Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), Defensive Wins Above Replacement (dWAR) and other less self-explanatory statistics. The Wilson DPOY Award is given to one player at each position.

In addition, each year SABR honors the best defensive player in each league (any position) with the Platinum Glove Award – based on sabermetrics and a fan vote. Wilson also selects an overall Defensive Player of the Year – based on traditional and advanced fielding metrics.

If all of this seems clumsily complex or overly metric, that is not without reason.  The increased use of metrics in the awards process is intended to add accuracy and prevent occurrences like Texas Ranger Rafael Palmeiro’s 1999 Gold Glove at first base.

The Strangest Ever Gold Glove Recognition

In 1999, the Texas Rangers’ Rafael Palmeiro had a tremendous offensive year, hitting .324, with 47 home runs and 148 RBI.  He was an All Star and well-deserving of his Silver Slugger Award as the league’s best offensive first baseman. To further add to his reputation, Palmeiro also won his third-consecutive Gold Glove as the AL’s top defensive first baseman.  That recognition, voted by managers and coaches, came despite the fact that Palmeiro was primarily a designated hitter in 1999. He won his Gold Glove while starting just 28 games in the field and handling just 275 chances (with one error). In contrast, Gold Glove contender Tino Martinez (Yankees) handled 1,414 chances with seven errors (.995 percentage) and slick fielding Twins’ first sacker Doug Mientkiewicz recorded 930 chances with just three errors (.997 percentage).  Maybe they just didn’t want to spend all that time and money engraving Mientkiewicz’ name on the award.

Even with the added metrics, there is still controversy and there is not always agreement on the top defender – even among the three award programs.  The chart below shows the 2014 winners for each Award. Following the chart is BBRT’s take on MLB’s top defender at each position.  Note:  Unless otherwise noted, the metric rankings are for each position and include only players with at least 100 games at that position.

Now let’s look at the 2014 award winners.

Catcher

No agreement among the three awards here – with the Cardinals’ Yadier Molina, Royals’ Salvador Perez and Pirates’ Russell Martin all claiming a share of the honors.  In the NL, the Gold Glove at backstop went to the Molina, his seventh consecutive such honor. (Molina also has won six Fielding Bible and two Wilson DPOY Awards.) Molina finished tied for fourth in Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) with eight, despite missing seven weeks due to injury. He finished fifth in dWAR (1.5). He also threw out 47.7 percent of attempted base stealers and achieved a 3.20 Catcher’s ERA, both best among players starting at least 100 games behind the plate.  In the AL, the Gold Glove went to the Perez, his second consecutive GG (in his second full MLB season). Perez led all MLB catchers in games started behind the plate (143) and in Defensive Wins Above Replacement (dWAR) at 2.1. He tied Molina for fourth in DRS at eight; threw out 30.5 percent of attempted base stealers and had MLB’s fourth-best full-time Catcher’s ERA (3.26).  The Fielding Bible Award winner was Jonathon Lucroy, who finished second in DRS (11) and tied for second in dWAR (2.0).  The Wilson DPOY went to Russell Martin of the Pirates, who finished number-one in DRS (12), despite starting only 106 games behind the plate.  Martin also threw out 38.5 percent of attempted base stealers and tied for second in dWAR at 2.0.  Martin won a Wilson DPOY Award in 2013.

BBRT’s Choice:  Yadier Molina.  It was a close contest between Gold Glovers Molina and Perez – both adept at calling a game, blocking errant pitches, “framing” a pitch and stopping base stealers.  Three factors swung my choice: Molina had the same number of Defensive Runs Saved as Perez in fewer games; Molina’s had a significant edge in throwing out potential base stealers; In eleven season, Molina has thrown out more than 40 percent of potential base stealers nine times – averaging 45 percent, with a high of 64 percent in 2005; while, in four season, Perez has thrown out an average of 33 percent of potential base stealers, with a high of 42 percent in 2012 – and his percentage has dropped in each of the past two seasons.

Cardinals’ catcher Yadier Molina and Royals left fielder Alex Gordon were honored with the Platinum Glove Awards as the top defensive players in their respective leagues. The award, presented by the Society for American Baseball Research, is based on a combination of sabrmetrics and a fan vote.

 First Base

Dodgers’ first sacker Adrian Gonzalez captured the NL Gold Glove, the Fielding Bible Award and the Wilson DPOY recognition.  It was Gonzalez’ fourth Gold Glove and first Fielding Bible and Wilson DPOY Awards, Gonzalez topped all first baseman with 12 Defensive Runs Saved and finished second overall and led NL first baseman in dWAR (0.2).  Gonzalez also showed good range, leading all of MLB first baseman with 1,442 total chances (six errors).  The Royals’ Eric Hosmer picked up the AL Gold Glove, his second. Hosmer finished sixteenth in DRS among first basemen (3).

BBRT Choice:  Adrian Gonzalez.

 

Dodgers’ first baseman Adrian Gonzalez was the only player to win both a Gold Glove and a Silver Slugger Award in 2014.

 

Second Base

Boston’s Dustin Pedroia took two honors here – The AL Gold Glove and Fielding Bible Award.  It was Pedroia’s fourth Gold Glove and third Fielding Bible Award. Pedroia has also won two Wilson DPOY Awards. Pedroia finished second among second basemen in DRS at 17 and dWAR at 2.5  He committed  just two errors in 654 chances – an MLB best .997 fielding percentage at the keystone sack. The Rockies’ DJ LeMahieu was the NL Gold Glover, finishing third in DSR (16) and dWAR (2.2).  LeMahieu committed six errors in 676 chances for a .991 fielding percentage. LeMahieu won a Wilson DPOT Award in 2013. Detroit’s Ian Kinsler earned the Wilson DPOY honor and topped all MLB second baseman with 20 DRS, as well as in dWAR (2.0). He also was first in MLB among second baseman in total chances (766) and second in assists (467).

 

BBRT Choice:  Tough call, but BBRT gives a slight edge to Kinsler over Pedroia, thanks to Kinsler edge in DRS, dWAR and total chances.

Third Base

Another major split among the defensive awards – four possible winners, four different choices.  The Gold Gloves went to the Rockies’ Nolan Arenado in the NL and the Mariners’ Kyle Seager in the AL.  Arenado finished third in DRS (16) and fourth in dWAR (1.9).  Seager finished seventh in DRS (10), fifth in dWar (1.7) He also made only eight errors in 422 chances, leading all MLB third sackers in fielding percentage at .987.  The Fielding Bible recognition went to the A’s Josh Donaldson, who led all of MLB third baseman in DRS with 20 and dWAR with 2.7. Donaldson did make 23 errors, but he also handled the most chances (482) of any third baseman (outdistancing Seager by 60 chances, while playing seven fewer games). The Wilson DPOY honoree at third base was Juan Uribe – who also won Wilson recognition in 2013. Uribe finished second among third basemen in DSR (17) and dWAR (2.0), despite playing only 102 games (starting 98) at third base.

BBRT Choice: Kyle Seager – on the basis of sure hands and top fielding percentage.  Could easily have gone to Josh Donaldson on the basis of range or Uribe on the basis of impact in only 102 games.

Shortstop

A sweep here, as the Braves’ Andrelton Simmons outran the field, winning the NL Gold Glove, Fielding Bible Award and Wilson DPOY honors. It his first two full seasons, Simmons has captured two Gold Gloves, two Fielding Bible Awards and two Wilson DPOY recognitions. Simmons finished first in all of MLB among shortstops with 28 defensive runs saved, first in dWAR at 3.9. The Orioles’ J.J. Hardy earned his third-consecutive AL Gold Glove, finishing fourth overall – and first in the AL – in DRS (10) at the shortstop position.  Similarly, he finished fifth overall and first in the AL in dWAR (2.1).

BBRT Choice: Andrelton Simmons.

Left Field

The Royals’ Alex Gordon won the AL Gold Glove, Fielding Bible Award and Wilson DPOY.  For Gordon, who switched to the outfield in 2010, after three seasons primarily at third base, it was his fourth-consecutive Gold Glove and third-consecutive Fielding Bible Award. How good was Gordon?  His 27 defensive runs saved were more than double nearest competitor – NL Gold Glove Winner Christian Yelich of the Marlins (13 DRS). Gordon also finished fourth in OF assists (8) and first in total chances (351). Yelich was no slouch finishing (a distant) fourth in dWAR (0.4), second in DRS and third in total chances (262).

BBRT Choice:  Alex Gordon is the top fly chaser in left field.

Center Field

The Mets’ Juan Lagares captured the NL Gold Glove and Fielding Bible Award.  The speedy, far-ranging Lagares notched an MLB CF-leading 28 Defensive Runs Saved – 13 more than his closest competitor (13 DRS each for the Diamondbacks’ Ender Inciarte and Rangers’ Leonys Martin). Lagares also was the MLB CF  leader in dWAR (3.4).  It was the first Gold Glove and second Wilson DPOY Award for Lagares, in just his second MLB season. The Royals’ Lorenzo Cain captured the Wilson DPOY Award (his third) and might have picked up the Fielding Bible honors if he hadn’t split time between LF and CF. Cain had 14 DRS in CF and 10 more DRS in right field.  (As the chart shows, Cain did win a Fielding Bible Award for multi-position player.) The Orioles’ Adam Jones won the AL Gold Glove, but lagged in DRS (2.0) and dWAR (0.8). Despite those metrics, Jones is known for sure hands and a strong arm. Note: Jones selection has been criticized by some analysts, but he did finish among the AL’s top-five center fielders in putouts, assists and double plays – and his reputation and past record may have boosted his support.  Jones led all AL CFs in putouts and assists in 2010, 2012, 2013.  The 2014 Gold Glove was Jones’ third-consecutive and fourth overall.   BBRT note: Keep an eye on Boston’s Jackie Bradley Jr. in the future.  In 2014, he led MLB centerfielder in assists with 13 – in just 113 games – and made just one error in 307 chances.

BBRT Choice: Lorenzo Cain – I know he split time between center and right, but given the choice, he’s the player I’d put in the center of my outfield garden.

Right Field

The Braves’ Jason Heyward led all of MLB defenders (any position) with 32 Defensive Runs Saved and captured the NL Gold Glove, Fielding Bible Award and Wilson DPOT Award. It was Heyward’s second Gold Glove and second Fielding Bible Award. Heyward also finished first in dWAR (2.8). He led all RFs in total chances (375) – while making just one error. The Orioles’ Nick Markakis earned his second AL Gold Glove. Like Adam Jones, Markakis’ advanced metrics aren’t flashy – just one Defensive Run Saved and a dWAR of -0.5.  However, Markakis led all right fielders with 11 assists, finished fifth in total chances (206) – and did not make a single error.  Markakis, in fact, is on a 328-game errorless streak – going back to August 10, 2012.

BBRT’s Choice:  Jason Heyward.

Braves’ right fielder Jason Heyward was selected as the Wilson (overall) Defensive Player of the Year.

Pitcher

The Astros’ Dallas Keuchel took the AL Gold Glove and Fielding Bible Award, leading all pitchers with ten Defensive Runs Saved (the only pitcher in double digits). Keuchel led all MLB hurlers in total chances (66) and assists (47).  Zach Grienke of the Dodgers took the NL Gold Glove, notching five DRS and the Reds’ Johnny Cueto won the Wilson DPOY at the pitcher spot (six DRS).

BBRT Choice: Dallas Keuchel

 

Coming Soon – A look at the Silver Slugger Awards – and players that have won a Sliver Slugger and Gold Glove in the same season..

 

I tweet baseball @David BBRT