Okay, we are on to the League Championship Series. Thus far, BBRT has only missed on one Wild Card game (I picked the Rockies over the Brewers), although the favorite have pretty much come through. I must add that while I got the prediction right on the Red Sox/Yankees, it didn’t exactly go as I expected. (I anticipated that David Price would finally find his post-season mojo and help lead the BoSox to a series win. Instead, it was Nathan Eovaldi who won a pivotal game.)
So, here are BBRT’s calls for the League Championship Series … but first, a little post-season tidbit for fans of “The Old Professor.”
Casey Makes His Case
On this date (October 10) in 1923, Yankee Stadium hosted its first-ever post-season game. Appropriately, the first World Series in “The House that Ruth Built” featured a six-game Yankees’ victory and three round trippers by the Babe himself. However, it was another New York outfielder – and eventual Yankee icon – who nearly stole the show.
In Game One, the New York Giants’ center fielder and number-six hitter Casey Stengel (one-for-two with a walk at the time) came up with the score knotted at four apiece, two out and no one on. Stengel hit a drive to deep left-center and dashed around the bases – losing a shoe along the way – to score the winning run (and record the first post-season home run in Yankee Stadium history).
The Series then went to the Polo Grounds for Game Two (the home sites would alternate game-by-game for this all-NY World Series), where Ruth would poke a pair of home runs as the Yankees prevailed 4-2. Then back to Yankee Stadium, where Stengel hit the second-ever post-season home run in that ballpark – a seventh-inning shot that gave the Giants a 1-0 victory. The Yankees went on to win the Series four games to two. Stengel, who played on one World Series winner with the Giants, would go on to win ten pennants and seven World Series Championships as the Yankees’ manager.
By the way, Stengel, who hit .339 in 75 regular-season games for the Giants that season, hit .417, with two homers and four RBI in the 1923 World Series.
—–NOW FOR BBRT’S PREDICTIONS—–
NATIONAL LEAGUE CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES
Dodgers over Brewers
The Dodgers topped the Brewers four games to three in the regular-season series and I’m betting on a similar result (not really betting, I prefer to just enjoy the games) – with LA topping Milwaukee in six games. (Apologies to all my Milwaukee-resident relatives.) For me, it’s mostly about: 1) an old-school attitude toward pitching; 2) the Dodgers’ depth and; 3) a touch of star power.
Manny Machado brought some star power over to the Dodgers. Photo by Keith Allison 
First, these are two potent offenses. In the regular season, the Dodgers stroked an NL-best 235 home runs (while hitting .250 as a team). The Brewers were not far behind at 218 round trippers and a slightly better (.252) average. However, the LA squad put up 50 more runs (804) than the Brew Crew (754). The reason, at least in BBRT’s view, is that the Dodgers’ lineup goes a little deeper and is a bit more versatile – with eight players launching 20+home runs each: Matt Muncy (.263-35-79), who spent notable time at 1B, 2B and 3B); 1B/CF Cody Bellinger (.260-25-76); OF Joc Pederson (.248-25-56); C Yasmani Grandal (.241-24-68); OF Yasiel Puig (.267-23-63); 2B-SS-OF Enrique Hernandez (.256-21-52); OF Matt Kemp (.290-21-85); and, of course, mid-season pickups SS Manny Machado (who hit .297-37-104 for the Orioles and Dodgers combined) and versatile corner infielder David Freese (.296-11-51 for the Pirates and the Dodgers). The Dodgers can hurt you up and down the line-up and have the flexibility to tailor right/left matchup (which also leaves them with a strong bench).
Likely Difference Maker …
Here’s where a touch of star power may come in. BBRT looks for Manny Machado to have a breakout series. He just seems poised to make a statement.
The Brewers need CXhristian Yelich to lead the offense like he did in September.
Photo by DandreaPhotography
The Brewers are no slouches offensively, led by likely MVP RF Christian Yelich (.326-36-110, with 22 steals); 1B Jesus Aguilar (.274-35-108); 2B/3B/SS Travis Shaw (.241-32-86); and CF Lorenzo Cain (.308, with ten home runs, 90 runs scored and 22 steals). They also got 20 home runs (.254 average, with 64 RBI) from Ryan Braun and some good port-side at bats from veteran 3B Mike Moustakas. Ultimately, however, the Dodgers’ offense shows a bit more depth.
The Brewers’ have the advantage in the bullpen with Corey Knebel (4-3, 3.58. 16 saves and a strong finish); Josh Hader (6-1, 2.43, 12 saves and 143 punch outs in 81 1/3 innings); Jeremy Jeffress (8-1, 1.29. 15 saves) and veteran Joakim Soria (3-1, 4.09) ready to take on crucial innings. The Dodgers’ counter with entrenched closer Kenley Jansen (1-5, 3.01, 38 saves) who has been a bit homer-prone (13 in 71 2/3 innings this season); Pedro Baez (4-3, 2.88); Scott Alexander (2-1, 3.69); and (probably for middle innings) transitioned starter Kenta Maeda. With both pens coming into the series well rested, the Brewers have the edge. However, in a seven-game Series, a bullpen advantage can fade if the you are forced to overwork the relief staff – and that is a real possibility for Milwaukee.
Keep An Eye On …
The Dodgers drew more regular season walks (647) than any other team in MLB. Then they drew another 27 in four 2018 post-season games. That spells trouble for the Brewers – putting additional stress on their starters (in terms of pitch count) and, in turn, the bullpen. Over a seven-game series, that stress will add up.
The Brewers had two starters who opened at least 30 games this season: Jhoulys Chacin (15-8, 3.50), the likely Game One starter, and Chase Anderson (9-8, 3.93). Also likely to draw a start is Wade Miley (5-2, 2.57 in 16 starts). They also have Gio Gonzalez, Freddy Peralta, Zach Davies and Junior Guerra as potential starerts – but we may very well see another “bullpen game” from the Milwaukee staff. What does seem certain is that the pen could get plenty of work in this series. The Dodgers, on the other hand, have a solidly set rotation – Clayton Kershaw (9-5, 2.73); Walker Buehler (8-5, 2.62); Hyun-Jin Ryu (7-3, 1.97); and Rich Hill (11-5, 3.66) – that delivered strong second-half performance. That, BBRT believes, will be the difference in the Championship Series.
A Player Worth Watching ….
Brewers’ 23-year-old rookie Corbin Burnes. The Brewers’ pen looks to get plenty of work this series – and Burnes could be a factor. He went 7-0, 2.61 in 30 rookie-season appearances. Then pitched four scoreless (one hits, no walks, five whiffs) innings in the NLDS. His arm could play an important role for the Brew Crew. Regardless of the NLCS outcome, BBRT is looking forward to watching this rookie.
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AMERICAN LEAGUE CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES
Astros over Red Sox
This Series will be the real test of “Can good pitching stop good hitting?” The Red Sox scored the most runs in MLB (876), had the most hits (1,509), the highest team batting average (.268), the most extra base hits (594) and the highest slugging percentage (.453). The Astros had MLB’s lowest regular-season earned run average (3.11), lowest starters’ ERA (3.16), lowest bullpen ERA (3.03) and most strikeouts (1,687). From BBRT’s perspective the Astros’ pitching will bring the World Series back to Houston. (It doesn’t hurt that the Astros have plenty of offensive weapons as well. They appear to be the best “team” in either league.)
Justin Verlander leads the Astros’ rotation.
Photo by Keith Allison
Let’s start with the starters (that makes sense, doesn’t it). The Astros offer up Justin Verlander (16-9, 3.07, 290K); Gerrit Cole (15-5, 2.88, 276K); Dallas Keuchel (12-11, 3.74); and Charles Morton (15-3, 3.13, 201K). It doesn’t get any better. That quartet helped Houston notch MLB’s lowest starting staff ERA (3.16) and highest starters’ strikeouts per nine innings (10.37). Houston starters also threw the second-most innings of any starting staff (955 1/3, second only to the Indians’ 993 2/3) – taking pressure off the bullpen. (By contrast, Red Sox’ starters threw the 17th most innings (871 1/3). The Boston starting staff is led by veterans Chris Sale (12-4, 2.11) and David Price (16-7, 3.58). Additional starts likely will come from Rick Porcello (17-7, 4.28) and Nathan Eovaldi (6-7, 3.81).
Keep An Eye On …
Boston number-two starter David Price (the 2012 AL Cy Young Award winner) has a career regular-season record of 143-75, 3.25 – and, over the past three seasons, has gone 57-24, 3.34 for the Tigers, Blue Jays and Red Sox. His post-season record, however, is 2-9, 5.28 in 18 games (10 starts) and he didn’t get out of the second inning in his ALDS start against the Yankees. The Red Sox need Price to “find himself” in this series if they are going to upset the Astros. The good news is that, against the rival Yankees, Rick Porcello and Nathan Eovaldi stepped up and gave up just two runs ina combined 12 innings. Keep an eye on how those two fare against the Astros, as well.
In the bullpen, that Astros appear to have an edge – with a 3.03 bullpen ERA to Boston’s 3.72. Key players will be the Astros’ Roberto Osuna (2-2, 1.99, 12 saves); Hector Rondon (2-5, 3.20, 15 saves); Ryan Pressly (1-0, 0.77, two saves); and Colin McHugh (6-2, 1.99 in 58 appearances0. The Red Sox look to Craig Kimbrel (5-1, 2.74, 42 saves) to close out and expect to see innings from Matt Barnes (6-4, 3.65) and Ryan Brasier (3-0, 1.60); among others.
A Player Who Could Make a Difference …
Ryan Pressley came over from the Twins in a late July trade. As an Astro, he appeared in 26 games, giving up just two earned runs in 23 1/3 innings – while walking just 3 and fanning 32. He could throw some important innings in a seven-game series.
Potential AL MVP Mookie Betts, whose chief competition for that recognition may come from teammate J.D. Martinez. They will power the BoSox’ lineup.
Photo by Keith Allison
Offensively, it’s a good match up. The Red Sox are led by DH J.D. Martinez (.330-43-139). RF Mookie Betts (.346-32-80, 30 steals); SS Xander Bogaerts (.288-23-103); LF Andrew Benintendi (.290-16-87, 21 steals). But they also have some depth with 1B Mitch Moreland (.245-15-68); 3B Rafael Devers (.240-21-66); and uber-utility man Brock Holt (.277-7-46, with seven steals in 109 games). Key Houston contributors should be 2B Jose Altuve (.316-13-61, 17 steals); 3B Alex Bergman (.281-31-103, 10 steals); 1B Yuli Gurriel (.282-13-85); OF George Springer (.265-22-71); and Tyler White (.276-12-42 in just 66 games).
Keep An Eye On …
One – The Red Sox need to slow down George Springer – a post-season
force to be reckomned with” – who has hit .566 with eight home runs in his last ten post-season games and .294-10-15 in 27 career post-season contests.Two – The Red Sox’ Brock Holt, who achieved the post season first cycle in the Red Sox 16-1 win over the Yankees on October 8 give the Red Sox some lineup and bench options. In 16 post-season games, Holt is 8-for-16 with one home run and five RBI.
Ultimately, BBRT thinks the Astros edge in pitching will carry the day.
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Spoiler Alert for next round of BBRT predictions.
World Series – Astros over Dodgers II.
Wow! A great one. I see the Astros pitching shutting down for the Dodgers and World Series MVP is likely to be Verlander.
I tweet Baseball @DavidBBRT.
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Member: Society for American Baseball Research; The Baseball Reliquary; The Negro Leagues Baseball Museum.
I predict that Price doesn’t start a game in ALCS.
David, your mention of Casey Stengel reminded me of his confrontation with the protagonist in my Book, If I Knew Then What I Know Now. Here’s the excerpt I’m sure you remember:
“Jesse Gonder, catching replacement for Cannizzaro, called “time-out” to confer with Stallard. “Casey” decided to bring his “ancient wisdom” into the fray, and the three seemed to concur on a course of action. Throwing his hands in the air, Stengel shuffled back to his lair. I had hoped that I convinced them to pitch to me, but Stallard’s next pitch proffered only doubt. The pitch was a hard slider—that, if it were meant to induce me to swing, failed miserably, since it was at least six inches outside.
With the count now 3 and 2, Gonder stood up and extended his right arm perpendicular to his body, indicating that an “intentional pass” was the order of business. The fans booed, with unrelenting passion, and I momentarily relegated my high ambitions to the lower aspirations of an inevitable “base-on-balls.” Then I listened to a familiar voice beckoning me to step “outside of the box.” An inspired thought suddenly recalibrated the masterful intent of “Stengelesean Wizardry.” I reentered that “rarefied cubicle” with a heightened alertness to the prospect of “duplicity.” Stallard again went through his motions on the mound, and Gonder again was standing, right arm extended out to his right. This time, instead of flaccid futility, my body “gathered” all forceful energy in eager anticipation of an abrupt change of strategy. Gonder stepped briefly to his right, as he synchronized his choreography to the rhythm of his “battery mate.” As Stallard lifted his front leg and turned his left hip toward home plate, Gonder abruptly repositioned himself down into the “catcher’s box” while Tracy redirected his momentum flow toward the “strike zone.” While in my normal “gathering mode,” I could see clearly the “release point” at which Tracy’s fingers snapped through the ball. His altered intention was obviously to blaze a fast one past me before I could recognize the subtlety of its strategic deployment. The plan was one of incomparable genius and should have enjoined itself to the effects of a successful conclusion. But my attentive ear heard the “clarion call,” and Wisdom proceeded to avert the entangled web of conspiracy with a “masterful stroke” of its own. The pitch was fast-approaching the strike zone, and the entire Met bench would consider it a moral victory to record a strikeout, or any out for that matter—anything other than a home run! However, even with “The Mighty Casey” at the helm, to administer a credible stratagem, the “gods” of highest vibrational essence were not to be denied.”