Okay, it’s on to the Fall Classic – and it should be a good matchup, with two storied franchises that both boast deep and versatile lineups and solid pitching staffs. It’s going to be a tough call. However, before I get into Baseball Roundtable’s predictions – and I haven’t been all that accurate this post season, I had the Astros/Dodgers pegged for the matchup – and also swung and missed on the Cbus/Rockies Wild Card game – I’d like to share a brief “old school” rant.
Subterfuge or Strategy? An “Old-School” Rant.
Photo by Michael & Sherry Martin 
Despite being Milwaukee-born, I was rooting for the Dodgers to take the NL Championship Series. My allegiance swung over to the West Coast in Game Five. Now, while I’m a bit old school, I still have no major problem with the recent development of the “bullpen game” – when you have an “opener” from the bullpen start the contest and then go to either a “primary pitcher” or a “committee” approach. That is, I have no problem with it when used as a strategy for “getting outs.” I do, however, take issue with the Brewers’ announcing southpaw Wade Miley as the starter in Game Five, then pulling him after one batter and going to right-hander Brandon Woodruff (with Miley planned as the Game Six starter). That seemed more like subterfuge than strategy to me.
Enough of my rant. Here’s BBRT’s prediction for (and a few comments on) the upcoming World Series. In addition, some thoughts on a handful of “things to watch for” – like the implications of the Dodgers drawing the most walks in the post-season thus far and the Red Sox giving up the most free passes. I’d really like to take the coward’s way out and just say whichever team wins Game One (particularly if it’s a Chris Sale/Clayton Kershaw matchup) will win the title in seven games. It really looks that close to me. However, that would, indeed, be the coward’s path to prediction. So, I am going to pick the Red Sox to win Game One – and the World Series in seven games. BBRT gives the edge to the Red Sox due to home field advantage, the more likelihood of putting up crooked numbers and the fact that the Red Sox (particularly the rotation and bullpen) should be better rested – particularly given the fact that, as this is written, the Dodgers still haven’t announced their Game One starter.
Let’s look a little deeper.
THE LINE UPS
Mookie Betts brings speech and power.
Photo by Keith Allison
These are two pretty evenly matched teams – which both generate a lot of offense and show enough depth for considerable lineup versatility. The Dodgers launched an NL-best 235 home runs (while hitting .250 at a team). The Red Sox show slightly less power (despite the DH) with 208 long balls, but did put up a .268 regular-season average and an MLB-tops 876 runs scored. (The Dodgers led the NL with 804 tallies). In the post season, that relationship of power and average has held. The Dodgers have 13 home runs and 43 runs scored in 11 games; while the Red Sox have scored 56 runs (in just nine games). The BoSox have hit .253 to the Dodgers .218, but trail in long balls 13-9. The Red Sox’ ability to put runners on the base paths (an MLB-best .339 on base percentage in the regular season and a .341 OBP in the post season – secondly only to the Astros’ .369 – may make them more likely to put up a big inning. The Dodgers are not far behind, with a regular-season OBP of .333 and a post-season mark of .324. Thus far in the post-season, the Red Sox have put up seven innings of three or more runs (in nine games) and the Dodgers have put up five such frames in eleven games. So, the Red Sox appear a bit more likely to put up a “big inning.”
A HANDFUL OF THINGS TO WATCH FOR – NUMBER ONE
Who will run the bases? During the regular season, the Red Sox showed more of a propensity to create a little disruption on the base paths – stealing 125 bags to the Dodgers 75. In the post-season, however, the Dodgers have swiped 13 bases (11 games) to the Red Sox’ five (nine games). Will the Red Sox turn Mookie Betts (30 steals in 36 attempts), Andrew Benintendi (21 for 24 in steal attempts) and Jackie Bradley, Jr. (17 for 18) loose? (In addition, Ian Kinsler – picked up by the Sox at the trade deadline – had 16 steals on the season, including seven in ten attempts for the BoSox.) And will the Dodgers, who were led in the regular season by Yasiel Puig’s 15 steals in 20 attempts, continue their aggressive post-season base running? (Cody Bellinger, who swiped 14 bags in the regular season, has four stolen bases in this post-season). Another thing to keep an eye on is the Red Sox’ propensity for taking the extra base and testing opposing outfielders.
Yasiel Puig brings excitement to the Dodgers’ lineup.
Photo by apardavila
The Dodgers have eight players who hit at least 20 regular-season home runs – 1B Matt Muncy (.263-35-79), who spent notable time at 1B, 2B and 3B); 1B/CF Cody Bellinger (.260-25-76); OF Joc Pederson (.248-25-56); C Yasmani Grandal (.241-24-68); OF Yasiel Puig (.267-23-63); 2B/SS/OF Enrique Hernandez (.256-21-52); OF Matt Kemp (.290-21-85) – and mid-season pickups SS Manny Machado (who hit .297-37-104 for the Orioles and Dodgers combined) and versatile corner infielder David Freese (.296-11-51 for the Pirates and the Dodgers), who could be an important asset against the Red Sox southpaws. The presence of Freese, Brian Dozier and Chris Taylor gives the LA squad some options both in terms of the lineup and bench moves.
You could say almost the same things about the Red Sox. While they have only four players with 20+ home runs, they have legitimate MVP candidates in RF Mookie Betts (.346-32-80, with 30 steals) and DH J.D. Martinez (.330-43-130). In addition, SS Xander Bogaerts gave the BoSox 23 home runs and drove in 103 (with a .288 average). There is also LF Andrew Benintendi (.290-16-87, 21 steals) and CF Jackie Bradley Jr., who drove in nine runs in the five-game AL Championship Series. Like the Dodgers, the Red Sox have depth and versatility with 1B Mitch Moreland (.245-15-68); 3B Rafael Devers (.240-21-66); utility man Brock Holt (.277-7-46, with seven steals in 109 games); and trade deadline pickups 2B Ian Kinsler (.240-14-48, with 16 steals) and 1B/OF Steve Pearce (.384-11-42 in 76 games).
Overall, I see a slight edge in the lineup for Boston.
A HANDFUL OF THINGS TO WATCH FOR – NUMBER TWO
Think about this – the Dodgers have drawn more free passes this post season than any other team (50 in eleven games), while the Red Sox’ staff has given up more walks than any other team (40). Note; The Dodgers also drew more regular season walks (647) than any other team in MLB; while the 512 walks given up by Boston pitchers was in the middle of the pack (number 17).
The Dodgers go deep in counts and are more than willing to take a walk – running up pitch counts early and putting additional stress on starters and the bullpen. Over a seven-game series, that stress could add up – and create some problems for Boston.
THE ROTATIONS
When it comes to starting pitching it looks like:
- The Red Sox’ Chris Sale (12-4, 2.11); David Price (16-7, 3.58). Rick Porcello (17-7, 4.28); and Nathan Eovaldi (6-7, 3.81).
- The Dodgers’ Clayton Kershaw (9-5, 2.73); Walker Buehler (8-5, 2.62); Hyun-Jin Ryu (7-3, 1.97); and Rich Hill (11-5, 3.66).
Over the course of the season, Dodgers’ starters put up a 3.19 earned run average (second only to the Astros’ 3.16), while Boston’s starters’ ERA was eighth in MLB at 3.77. A couple of factors to consider here. How much will the extra rest mean for Boston and will Chris Sale bounce back from his stomach problems? From a starting rotation standpoint, it looks pretty even. BBRT, on first glance, would give a slight edge to Sale and Price over Kershaw and whomever emerges at the number-two spot for LA (likely Ryu) – based primarily on the number of high-stress pitches tossed in this post season. On the other side fo the coin, there are Sale’s recent health problems and Price’s less than stellar post-season record. You might keep an eye on Dodgers’ rookie Walker Buehler, wisely being held for a “home start,” who was akey member of the rortation after being called up from Triple A. Ultimately, a toss-up.
A HANDFULL OF THINGS TO WATCH FOR – NUMBER THREE
Who will start Game One for the Dodgers, who used ace Clayton Kershaw to close out Game Seven against the Brewers? It has not been announced as I put this post together. BBRT is rooting for a Sale/Kershaw battle, but no matter who takes the mound for the Dodgers, Game One will be critical for both sides. Update: Since this was first posted, LA has announced Kershaw as the Game One starter – that add to the importance of this game and makes it a must-watch.
THE BULLPENS
The regular-season bullpen earned run averages for the Dodgers and Red Sox were identical (3.72) and the innings pitched by the relief staff were very close (587 1/3 for the Red Sox and 581 1/3 for the Dodgers). In fact, almost all the bullpen stats were parallel. The Red Sox’ pen fanned 628 batters, just three more than the Dodgers – and batters hit .235 against the Red Sox’ pen and .231 against the Dodgers’ relievers. If there is a potential issue, it is walks (remember, we’ve already seen how patient the Dodgers’ hitters can be), where the Red Sox’ relievers gave up 245 walks to 199 for the LA pen.
I see an edge for the Dodgers’ pen, despite their extra post-season workload.
A HANDFUL OF THINGS TO WATCH FOR – NUMBER FOUR
Which starters will end up taking the mound in relief? Already this post season, the Dodgers’ Clayton Kershaw and Rich Hill and the Red Sox’ Chris Sale, David Price and Rick Porcello have all been called on for relief duty. How many times members of the rotation are called in from the pen may say a lot about how this World Series is going.
The Dodgers’ are led by closer Kenley Jansen (1-5, 3.01,38 saves, 3.01), who has been a bit homer-prone (13 in 71 2/3 innings this season); Pedro Baez (4-3, 2.88); Scott Alexander (2-1, 3.69) and (probably for middle innings) transitioned starter Kenta Maeda. The Red Sox look to Craig Kimbrel (5-1, 2.74, 42 saves) to close out and expect to see innings from Matt Barnes (6-4, 3.65) and Ryan Brasier (3-0, 1.60); among others.
These two bullpens look pretty even, but you can give an edge to LA based on a post-season bullpen ERA of 1.30 to the Red Sox’ 3.62.
A HANDFUL OF THINGS TO WATCH FOR – NUMBER FIVE
Could we see Red Sox’ RF Mookie Betts at the two-bag? The Red Sox lose the DH spot when they play in LA and there is talk that RF Mookie Betts could move into 2B in order to put J.D. Martinez’ glove in the outfield – and, of more impotance, his very potent bat in the lineup. Not such a far-fetched idea.
Betts, a Gold Glove outfielder, is a superb athlete, who started more than 200 games at 2B in the minor leagues (and started 14 games at 2B in his rookie MLB season). Watch for that development. Should the Red Sox make the move, it will be interesting to see the impact defensively – and how it balances against Martinez’ impact offensively. If it were me – and this is why I am writing a blog and not managing a team – I would use Betts at 2B, unless I had left Boston with a two-games to none lead. Then I’d keep him in RF until LA pulled within one game.
So, there you have BBRT’s observations on the upcoming series. It will be close – perhaps determined by whether Boston defends home field advantage in Game One. It may also come down to star power. Who will lead their team to a championship – Manny Machado or Mookie Betts. Or who will prove to be the ace that shuts down one of these two offenses – Clayton Kershaw or Chris Sale? Or maybe someone come out of the blue to surprise us all and prove to be the Series MVP? (After all, the World Series MVP list includes such names as Pat Borders, Scott Brosius, Rick Dempsey and Ray Knight. ) If I had to predict a surprise World Series MVP for this year, I’d go with Dodgers’ 1B David Freese to win his second career WS MVP (he won it with the Cardinals in 2011) or Red Sox’ 3B Eduardo Nunez to power some key hits and make a couple of notable defensive “saves.” Ultimately, though, BBRT sees the Red Sox in seven, solid pitching from both Sale and Price (who turns around his post-season reputation) and an WS MVP Award for either Mookie Betts or Andrew Benintendi. However, I would not place any kind of bet on any of those predictions.
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