The post season is over and now it’s awards season. Here is Baseball Roundtable’s look (ratings, selections, predictions) at potential CY Young Award candidates. For a look at potential Rookie of the Year candidates, click here. Coming soon: MVP candidates.
AMERICAN LEAGUE CY YOUNG AWARD
BBRT Choice: Robbie Ray
BBRT Prediction: Robbie Ray
- Robbie Ray, LHP, Blue Jays … Robbie Ray went 13-7, with a 2.84 earned run average (lowest among qualifying AL pitchers). He led the AL in strikeouts (248); innings pitched (193.1); games started (tied at 32); and WHIP (among qualifiers – 1.04). He fanned 11.55 batters per nine innings (third among AL starters). With a bit more run support, his record could have been even better. He went just 1-0 in August, despite having six starts in which he went six or more innings and gave up two or fewer runs. For the month, he averaged 6.8 innings per start, with a 1.76 ERA and 11.9 strikeouts per nine. Ray’s was a dominant season.
- Gerrit Cole, RHP, Yankees … Gerrit Cole led the AL with 16 wins (versus eight losses) in 30 starts. He tied for the lead in complete games with two and trailed only Robbie Ray in strikeouts (243 to Ray’s 248 in 181 1/3 innings to Ray’s 193 1/3). Cole was also second in WHIP (among qualifiers) at 1.06 (to Ray’s 1.04) and second in the AL in strikeouts per nine innings (12.06 to Dylan Cease’s 12.28). He was especially hot in the “dog days of August,” when he got three starts ad gave up one run in 17 2/3 innings (13 hits, four walks and 24 strikeouts.) This should be very close; but Ray and Cole are the front runners.
- Lance Lynn, RHP, White Sox … Lynn went 11-6 in 28 starts and, although he was five innings short of qualifying for the ERA title, he turned in a sharp 2.69 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 10.1 strikeouts per nine innings. Lynn’s chances may be hurt a bit by having just 11 wins.
- Jose Berrios, RHP Blue Jays …. Barrios, who went 12-9, 3.52 was second in the AL only to Robbie Ray in innings pitched (192 to Rays 193 1/3) and his 32 starts tied for the league lead. He fanned 204 batters (fifth in the AL), his 1.06 WHIP tied for second among AL qualifiers, his 9.56 strikeouts per nine innings were ninth and his 4.53 strikeouts-per-walk ratio was fifth (all among qualifiers). Unfortunately for Barrios, he finished behind Ray and Cole in wins; ERA; strikeouts and strikeout/nine innings; and WHIP (when you carry it out to three decimal points, Cole was 1.058, Barrios 1.063). Still, Barrios was a quality, dependable starter for the Twins and Blue Jays and pitched at least six innings in 22 of 32 starts and seven or more frames in eight of those.
- Frankie Montas, RHP, A’s … Montas went 13-9, 3.37 (fourth among AL qualifiers) in 32 starts. His 187 innings pitched were third in the AL, his 207 strikeouts fourth, his 9.96K/9 sixth and his 1.18 WHIP sixth.
NATIONAL LEAGUE CY YOUNG AWARD
I know there are no ties in baseball, but there is a three-way tie for fifth place on this list (with the reasoning explained).
BBRT CHOICE: Zack Wheeler
BBRT: Prediction: Max Scherzer
- Zack Wheeler, RHP, Phillies … Wheeler went 14-10, 2.78 (fifth-best NL ERA). His 213 1/3 innings pitched led MLB, and he led the NL in strikeouts with 247. He also tied for the MLB lead in the “unicorn” categories – complete games (3) and complete-game shutouts (2), He finished fourth in the NL in strikeouts-to-walks ratio at 5.37. His 14 wins tied for fifth in the NL and three of the four pitchers above him were Dodgers (Julio Urias, Walker Buehler and Max Scherzer). While Scherzer may be considered a favorite here, the fact that three Dodgers are legitimate contenders may actually help Wheeler – particularly considering that the all of the other starters on this list benefited from higher run support than Wheeler. The Dodgers’ Julio Urias, Max Scherzer and Walker Buehler received more than five runs of support per nine innings (according to STATS), while Wheeler was at 3.67.
- Max Scherzer, RHP, Dodgers … Scherzer went 15-4, 2.46 (second among NL qualifies) on the season, with 236 strikeouts (second only to Zach Wheeler’s 247) in 179 1/3 innings pitched. His 0.86 WHIP was the lowest among MLB qualifiers. Scherzer will probably generate a bit of extra support for what he did after moving from the Nationals to the Dodgers (July 30 trade). He was 7-0, 1.98 in eleven starts for the Dodgers (and LA won in his four no-decisions). Notably, this included a hiccup in his final two starts (10 earned run sin 10 1/3 innings). On the season, Scherzer gave up two earned runs or less in 24 of 30 starts – no earned runs in ten.
- Walker Buehler, RHP, Dodgers … Buehler went 16-4, 2.47 (numbers almost identical to Scherzer) in an NL–leading 33 starts. He fanned 212 batters in 207 2/3 innings (second-most IP in the NL), had a 0.97 WHIP and 9.2 strikeouts/nine innings. Finishing behind Scherzer in WHIP, K/9, BB/K ratio will likely deny him the CYA.
- Corbin Burnes, RHP, Brewers … Burnes went 11-5, 2.43 (lowest ERA among MLB qualifiers), with 232 strikeouts in just 167 innings. His 12.6 strikeouts per nine led MLB qualifiers. Burnes also put up a 0.94 WHIP (second among MLB qualifiers to Max Scherzer). Burnes fanned ten or more batters in eight games, A couple more victories would have helped his case.
- (Tie) Julio Urias, Josh Hader, Adam Wainwright
Julio Urias, LHP, Dodgers … There was a time when being MLB’s only 20-game winner would have practically guaranteed the CYA. Well, Julio Urias was MLB’s only 20-game winner in 2021 (20-3, 2.96) and still finished fifth on this list. He fanned 195 batters in 185 2/3 innings and put up a WHIP of 1.02. Still, he finished behind all four starters ahead of him on this list in ERA, strikeouts and WHIP. For BBRT, 20 wins has got to get you at least on the short list. He could do better than I expect, if enough voters share that old-school sentiment.
Josh Hader, LHP, Brewers … Brewers’ closer Hader went 4-2, with 34 saves in 35 opportunities and 102 strikeouts in just 58 2/3 innings – putting up a 0.84 WHIP and holding hitters to a .127 average. That kind of lights-relief deserve recognition (and relievers are often underrepresented in the CYA competition.
Adam Wainwright, RHP, Cardinals … The 39-year-old Wainwright finished in the top ten in the NL in wins (second at 17, with 7 losses); ERA (3.05 – tenth); innings pitched (206 1/3 – third); WHIP (1.06 – ninth); complete games (three – tie for first). Have to give a nod to that kind of “veteran” performance (particularly at my age, we oldster need hope).
Primary Resource: Baseball-Reference.com
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