We’re now at about the middle of BBRT’s 2019 Preview Week – and today we are taking a look at the National League West. Things, as I’ve noted before, can change – particularly since there are still some “difference makers” out there on the free-agent market (Like Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel). Over the week, BBRT will look at each MLB Division, and then wrap up with predictions for the major awards (ROY, CYA, MVP). We started with the National League and are moving from East to West (Division-wise). Keep in mind, these are just BBRT’s opinions and conjecture – not the result of any inside insight or info.
For the NL East Preview, click here.
For the NL Central, click here.
For the AL East, click here.
For the AL Central, click here.
For the AL West, click here.
For the major awards, click here.
After each divisional predicted order of finish – for those who want more detail or justification – I’ll move on to a team-by-team evaluation. Keep in mind, these are just BBRT’s opinions and conjecture – not the result of any inside insight or info.
NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST
Dodgers
Rockies
Padres
Diamondbacks
Giants
The Dodgers, despite a quiet off season (more departures than arrivals) are in a good position to repeat as NL West champions. They have the division’s best pitching staff pretty much returning en masse. (In 2018, the Dodgers had the NL’s best team earned run average at 3.38.) They also return most of a lineup that led the NL in runs scored (804) and home runs (235). The only team that looks in a position to challenge LA is the Rockies, who won 91 games a year ago and, like the Dodgers, area pretty much putting the band back together for another run. The Diamondbacks are likely to regress a bit – after trading Paul Goldschmidt and losing A.J. Pollock and Patrick Corbin to free agency. In fact, the Padres could move up to third place this season – as the acquisition of Manny Machado should make the whole lineup better. Still, San Diego’s pitching is young and unproven. The Padres would really benefit from signing Dallas Keuchel to bolster the rotation and tutor the young staff. The Giants do not seem to be aging well. I wouldn’t be surprised to see an influx of youngsters in San Francisco (via call up or trade) as the season progresses.
DODGERS – First Place
Clayton Kershaw’s left shoulder question mark – that’s worth and exclamation point. Ouch! The Dodger ace may not be ready for Opening Day. Then again, this is a Dodger team that made it to the World Series despite losing notable time from its starting shortstop (and arguably best position player) Corey Seager, its starting third baseman Justin Turner and the leader of its starting rotation Clayton Kershaw. Fortunately, for the Dodgers, they play in the NL West – as a whole not nearly as active in the off-season trade/free-agent market as the NL East or Central. Short story, nobody really positioned themselves to gain significant ground, and the Dodgers have the depth to repeat.
Despite the departure (via trade) of Yasiel Puig (and his 23 home runs and 15 steals), the Dodgers outfield is set to be competitive – led by right fielder Cody Bellinger (.260-25-76, with 14 steals). Free-agent signee A.J. Pollock should man center – and replace the offense lost with the trade of Puig. Last season, with the D-backs, Pollock hit .257-21-65, with 13 steals in 113 games for the D-backs. Joc Pederson (.248-25-56) will be back in left field.
PUT ME IN COACH. I’M READY TO PLAY
Enrique “Kiki” Hernandez gives the Dodgers insurance at several positions – and lineup flexibility when they need it. Last season, Hernandez started 44 games in CF; 22 at 2B; 17 at SS; seven in RF; seven at 1B; five in LF; and two at 3B. He filled those many roles, while hitting .256-21-52. Oh, he also took the mound (in relief) for 1/3 of an inning.
The Dodgers are counting on a healthy Corey Seager.
Photo by apardavila 
Look for Corey Seager (who had Tommy John and hip surgeries and played just 26 games a year ago) to be back at SS early in the season. If healthy, Seager is good for a .300-25-75 line. Also returning, after an injury-shortened 2018, should be 3B Justin Turner. Last season, Turner hit .312-14-52 in 103 games (after .322-21-71 in 130 games the previous season.) Turner’s return to 3B should free up the surprising Max Muncy to move to 1B. Muncy hit .263-35-79 in 137 games a year ago – and, while another 35-HR season does not seem likely, 25 dingers would be no surprise. Like so many Dodgers, Muncy offers lineup flexibility. Last season he started games as 1B, 3B and 2B. Chris Taylor (.254-17-63) should see plenty of time at 2B, although having Hernandez and Muncy available will enable the Dodgers to continue their past platooning strategies. (Taylor can also play OF, as can Muncy.) The loss of Yasmani Grandal leaves Austin Barnes to handle the bulk of the catching. Veteran Russell Martin is available to back up Barnes.
On the mound, Clayton Kershaw, at 30, is beginning to show signs of wear and tear – evidenced by back and shoulder trouble and a couple of mph lost off the fastball. Still, he went 9-5, 2.73 in 26 starts a year ago – and the Dodgers are looking for him to improve upon that in 2018. A healthy Kershaw would be a big boost to LA. Even if he’s not ready at the start of the season (and it’s starting to look like he won’t be), there are quality arms in the rotation: Veteran Rich Hill (11-5, 3.66); southpaw Hyun-Jin Ryu (7-3, 1.97); Walker Buehler (8-5, 2.62); Kenta Maeda (8-10, 3.81); and Ross Stripling (8-6, 3.02). Keep in mind, a year ago – despite having seven different pitches start at least 15 games and only two start at least 25 – the Dodgers’ starters put up an NL-best 3.19 ERA.
The bullpen will again be led by closer Kenley Jansen – who saved 38 games a year ago. Getting the ball to Jansen will be newcomer, free-agent Joe Kelly (4-2, 4.39 for Boston last season, with 68 whiffs in 65 2/3 innings); Josh Fields (2-2, 2.20, with two saves in 45 appearances); and Pedro Baez (4-3, 2.88 in 55 appearances). Kelly, by the way, came up with a rather unusual injury in early March – back tightness from standing too long preparing a Cajun Crayfish Boil. He says he’ll be ready to go on schedule.
Overall, the Dodgers’ depth – and lack of off-season action by the Western Division teams chasing them – should lead to a repeat.
KEY OFF-SEASON MOVE
The Dodgers were not very busy this off-season (at least in terms of MLB-ready players brought in, as opposed to sent out). They did sign A.J. Pollock to handle center field. Entering his eighth MLB season, Pollock helps fill a need created by the Dodgers’ trade of Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp.
PLAYER TO WATCH
BBRT will be keeping an eye on Alex Verdugo. The 23-year-old may force his way into the outfield picture before the season ends – which would be a good thing for the Dodgers. Last season, he hit .329-10-44, with eight steals, in 91 games at Triple A and .260 in 37 games after the Dodgers called him up. In five minor-league seasons (512 games), he’s hit .309, with 41 home runs, 271 RBI and 44 steals. When he’s ready, the Dodgers will be even more versatile – and even better offensively.
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ROCKIES – Second Place
In 2018, the Rockies gave the Dodgers a run for their money in the NL West, forcing them to a Game 163 for the division title. If any team in the West can challenge the Dodgers this season, it will again be the Rockies. However, I just don’t think they can match the Dodgers’ depth – in the lineup or the rotation. Second place looks like the ceiling for Colorado.
Nolan Arenado – BBRT’s current favorite player -offers a combination of leather and lumber. Photo by jenniferlinneaphotography
The Rockies’ Big Three Plus One (returnees Charlie Blackmon, Nola Arenado and Trevor Story – plus free-agent signee Daniel Murphy) will be expected to carry the offense – and they offer both quality and balance. LF and leadnoff hitter Blackmon put up a .291-29-70 season from the left-hander’s side of the plate, while righty 3B Nolan Arenado (a six-time Gold Glover and three-time home run leader) went .297-38-110. Newcomer 1B Daniel Murphy bats left and went .299-12-42 in 91 games for games for the Cubs and Nationals. He adds a quality bat to the Rockies’ lineup – having hit under .280 just once in ten seasons and having topped 20 home runs twice. He should put up some big numbers at Coors, where his career average is .330. Finally, SS Trevor Story (a righty) – went .291-37-108. Story is also a plus defender. That’s a pretty good start to any offense.
It thins out a bit after the Big Three Plus One, but there is still some pop. Joining Blackmon in the outfield will David Dahl (.273-16-48) and Ian Desmond (.236-22-80). Second base looks like a contest (or platoon) involving left-handed hitting Ryan McMahon and righty Garrett Hampson. I lean toward Hampson, who hit .275 in a late season call up (24 games) and has a .315 average over three minor league seasons. The Rockies will miss departed free agent DJ LeMahieu’s bat (a .298 average over eight MLB seasons) and Gold Glove defense. Chris Ianetta (.224-11-36 in 110 games) should get the bulk of the catching assignments. Overall, it a solid offense, just not as deep or as versatile as the Dodgers.
In 2018, Rockies starting pitchers stayed on the mound for
a National League-leading 932 innings.
The Rockies’ rotation should again be a point of strength. It’s led by lefty Kyle Freeland (17-7, 2.85 in 33 starts). German Marquez – just 24-years-old – put it all together in 2018, going 14-11, 3.77 and fanning 230 batters in 196 innings. He could be even better in 2019. Rounding out the rotation should be Tyler Anderson (7-9, 4.55), Jon Gray (12-9, 5.12) and Antonio Senzatela (6-6, 4.38). The Rox would like to see a rebound from Gray, who was 10-4, 3.67 in 2017.
Ah, the bullpen, there’s the rub. The Rockies’ bullpen ERA (4.62) was the highest in the Division and third-highest in the league. Couple that with the fact that they lost one of their most effective (and most often called upon) relievers in Adam Ottavino (6-4, 2.43, with six saves in 75 appearances) to free agency and you have an issue. Going into 2018, Wade Davis (3-6, 4.13, with 43 saves will be back at closer. Others getting significant innings should include Seung Hwan Oh (2-0, 2.53 in 25 appearances), Scott Oberg (8-1, 2.45 in 56 games) and Bryan Shaw (4-6, 5.93 in 61 appearances).
Look for the Rockies to be in the race, but also look for a lack of lineup depth and a thin bullpen to keep them from unseating the Dodgers.
KEY OFF-SEASON MOVE
BBRT believes the most significant Rockies’ off-season move was letting reliever Adam Ottavino get away (free agency). On the plus side, it was signing Daniel Murphy –a .330 career hitter at Coors Field to pay 1B.
PLAYER TO WATCH
Jon Gray may be essential to the Rockies’ chances for another post-season (Wild Card) appearance, The question is whether the 27-year-old Gray will be more like the 25-year-old Gray (3.67 ERA) or the 26-year-old version (5.12 ERA). Gray looked good in early Spring Training (just one run in his first nine innings).
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DIAMONDBACKS – Third Place
The Diamondbacks went 82-79 a year ago – and that was before the departures of Paul Goldschmidt (trade); A.J. Pollock (free agency); Patrick Corbin (free agency); and Brad Boxberger (free agency). Think about it. In Goldschmidt, they lost a Gold Glove defender, who was also their 2018 leader in home runs and number-two on the team in batting average and RBI. In Boxberger, they lost their saves leader and, in Corbin, their leader in ERA (among starters) and strikeouts. Pollock was the starting CF, who also contributed 21 home runs and 13 steals. The off season additions did not match the subtractions. I look for the Diamondbacks to have to work to stay above .500.
There is still some strength at the top of the rotation with the ZG-men Zack Greinke (15-11, 3.21) and Zach Godley (15-11, 4.74), who combined for 65 starts and close to 400 innings a year ago. Robbie Ray (6-2, 3.93), who started just 24 games due to an oblique injury, has shown both swing-and-miss stuff (12 strikeouts per nine innings last season) and miss-the-plate stuff (5.1 walks per nine). Still he was an All Star and 15-game winner in 2017, so there is plenty of potential (and he’s a southpaw, which adds to his value). Newcomers Luke Weaver (trade) and Merrill Kelly (free agent) should fill the four and five spots. Weaver was 7-11, 4.95 for the Cardinals; while Kelly had a solid season in Korea (16-7, 3.60, with 189 whiffs in 190 innings). In five U.S. minor league seasons, the 29-year-old put up a 39-26, 3.40 record. It could be the D-backs are onto something here. Overall, it should be a rotation that can keep the Diamondbacks in ball games.
In 2018, the Diamondbacks had the NL’s third-best earned run average (3.72) and third-most strikeouts (1,448) – the pitching still looks solid in 2018. A year ago, however, the D-backs were ninth in the league in runs scored and seventh in home runs – and they lost their best hitter (Paul Goldschmidt).
There are some questions in the bullpen, where it looked like top setup man Archie Bradley and his 96-mph fastball were set to take over. Then the Diamondbacks signed free-agent Greg Holland, who led the NL in saves as recently as 2017. It will be interesting to see who gets the bulk of the saves. Ideally, for the Diamondbacks, it would seem best if Holland (who has had some struggles this spring) would come around and enable Arizona to keep Bradley in his proven setup role. Among other key bullpen members: Yoshihisa Hirano (4-3, 2.44 in 75 appearances) and Andrew Chafin (1-6, 3.10 in 77 games).
On offense, Arizona will rely heavily on LF David Peralta to repeat his .293-30-87 numbers of 2018. Their only other proven power source seems to be versatile 3B Eduardo Escobar (.272-23-84 for the Twins and Diamondbacks). If they are going to move up in the standings, the D-backs will need a lot more from 1B Jake Lamb (.222-6-31 in 56 games a year ago). Lamb did hit .248, with 59 home runs and 196 RBI in 2016-17, so there is bounce back potential. Others in the lineup should include: Ketel Marte in CF (as well as playing some middle infield), who went .260-14-59, and Steven Souza, Jr. (.220-5-29 in 72 games) in RF. Souza does have a 30-home run season on his resume (2017 for the Rays), but 15-20 seems a more likely ceiling. The D-backs added some flexibility, signing free-agent OF Adam Jones, who went .281-15-63 for Baltimore, but has shown 25-homer power. (which could free Martel up for more infield innings). The infield should fill out with free-agent signee Wilmer Flores (.267-11-51 for the Mets) at 2B and Nick Ahmed (.234-16-70) at SS.
The Diamondbacks should have enough pitching to keep them from fading into the bottom of the division, but there just doesn’t seem to be enough offense to close the gap on the Dodgers and Rockies.
KEY OFF-SEASON MOVE
Let’s face it, trading six-time all Star Paul Goldschmidt was the most significant move the Diamondbacks made. The face of the franchise has changed – and the Diamondbacks need someone to step up on offense.
PLAYER TO WATCH
BBRT will be watching Merrill Kelly. The 30-year-old right-hander went to Korea to find another five-to-seven mph on his fastball and earn a ticket back to a major-league roster. Last year in Korea, Kelly went 16-7, 3.60. And, in the past he has shown potential at other levels. In two Triple A seasons (in the Rays’ system), he went 17-8, 2.94. It will be interesting to see if he is the next Mike Mikolas, who came back after a 14-8 2.25 season in Japan (2017), to go 18-4, 2.83 for the Cardinals.
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PADRES – Fourth Place
Much ado about (Manny) Machado – the newest Padre.
Photo by Keith Allison
Much ado about Machado. That sums up the Padres for 2019. The Manny Machado signing should have a dramatic impact on the outlook and output in San Diego. The fact is, Machado will not only bring Gold Glove defense to 3B, but his bat (.297-37-107 for the Orioles and Dodgers in 2017) will have a positive impact up and down the line up. Key contributors to the energized Padres’ offense should include: Free-agent signee 2B Ian Kinsler (.240-14-48, with 16 steals for the Angels and Red Sox), a very professional bat; 1B Eric Hosmer (.253-18-69 for the Padres last year, but .318-25-94 for the Royals in 2017); and LF Wil Meyers (.253-11-39 in 83 games, but .243-30-72, with 20 steals in 2017). I expect all three will improve on their 2018 numbers. Joining Meyers in the OF will be a young player with tremendous upside: 23-year-old, 6’5”, 275-pound RF Franmil Reyes, who hit .280-16-31 in 87 games for the Padres – and poked 41 home runs in his last 193 minor league games. Plus-defender Manuel Margot (.245-8-51, with 11 steals in 141 games) and Frenchy Cordero (.237-7-19 in 40 games) may both see time in CF. With Meyer moving back to the OF, Hunter Renfroe will likely get playing time as a fourth outfielder – despite hitting 26 home runs in each of the past two seasons. He could be a great option off the bench when needed.
Shortstop will belong to Luis Urias, at least until top prospect Fernando Tatis Jr. is ready to fill that spot. That is not expected to be a long wait, as Tatis – at age 20 – has hit .280 with 14 home runs, 143 RBI, 200 runs scored and 42 steals in three minor-league seasons (274 games). While Urias, just 22-years-old, hit only .208 in a late season call up, he’s shown a solid bat in the minors, averaging .306 over five minor league seasons. A future middle infield of Tatis at short and Urias at second seems in the cards for the Padres. The bulk of the catching will be handled by Austin Hedges (.231-14-37). No doubt, the Padres will put a lot more runners on the bases and runs on the scoreboard in 2018.
In 2018, the Padres scored the third-fewest runs in the NL (617) and gave up the third-most (767). They addressed the scoring drought, but did little to improve the pitching.
In 2018, the Padres did not have a single pitcher with more than eight wins and their starters put up a league-worst 5.09 ERA. In the off-season, the Padres signed free-agent Garret Richards (Angels), recovering from Tommy John surgery. Richards signed a two-year deal and is not likely to pitch for the Padres until late in the 2019 season – and that’s a best-case scenario. It makes a pretty convincing case for the Padres focusing on 2020 as the year they move into contention.
Looking at the San Diego pitching staff – the rotation is all about youth and potential. Southpaw Joey Lucchesi likely will lead the rotation. The 26-year-old was 8-9, 4.08 in 26 starts 2018 (his first MLB season) – and despite a 90-mph fastball, notched 145 strikeouts in 130 innings. In three minor-league seasons, Lucchesi put up a 2.25 ERA in 187 2/3 innings. Another southpaw, Robbie Erlin, will also be near the top of the rotation. The 27-year-old has spent part of six seasons with the Padres and is 13-19, 4.40 over that time. He’s a still an unproven arm – and also underwent Tommy John surgery in 2016 (missed the 2017 season). Like Lucchesi, Erlin relies more on location and change of speed than pure power. Next up may be yet another southpaw – 24-year-old Eric Lauer. Lauer was 6-7, 4.34 as a rookie in 2018, but put up a 2.93 ERA in 37 minor league appearances. Another candidate for the rotation is 23-year-old righty Chris Paddack, who was 7-3, 2.10 in 17 minor-league starts last season (120 strikeouts in 90 innings). Given the shape of the Padres’ pitching options, he could make the jump from Double A. In the wings are Luis Perdoma (1-6, 7.05 in 12 games/10 starts); Bryan Mitchell (2-4, 5.42 in 16 games/11 starts); and Jacob Nix (2-5, 7.01). There seems to be a real possibility that the Padres will make some use of the Rays’ “opener” strategy – and turn some contests over to a committee of relievers.
If any team could use the still unsigned (as of this writing) Dallas Keuchel, it’s the Padres. Not only would he bring some MLB experience to a very inexperienced staff, the two-time All Star, 2015 AL Cy Young Award winner and four-time Gold Glover would be a good mentor for the Padres’ young mounds men. Consider, the six most likely (at least in BBRT’s view) starters for the Padres have a total of 104 MLB starts (an average of 17 career starts each). Keuchel has 183 career starts in seven seasons. The Padres could use this guy.
The bullpen is a bit more experienced than the rotation – and it better be. Kirby Yates (5-3, 2.14, with 12 saves) will garner most of the save opportunities. Also playing key roles will be Craig Stammen (8-3, 2.73 in 73 appearances last season); Matt Strahm (3-4, 2.05 in 41 appearances); and Robert Stock (1-1, 2.50 in 32 games). The San Diego bullpen pitched the most innings of any NL relief staff in 2018 – and put up the third-best ERA (3.53) and second-best strikeouts per nine innings (10.2.) The pen should be strength again.
KEY OFF-SEASON MOVE
Pretty easy one here – the Manny Machado signing should have a positive impact on offensive performance and attitude.
PLAYER TO WATCH
I’d keep an eye on 23-year-old Franmil Reyes – at 6’5” /275-pounds, he could develop into the Padres’ version of Aaron Judge. In just over half a season (87 games) with the Padres in 2018, he hit .280, with 16 long balls and 31 RBI. (Like Judge he also “misses” a lot – 80 whiffs in 87 games). Before his call up, Reyes was .324-16-52 in 58 games at Triple A. He should give the fans a few thrills this coming season.
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GIANTS – Fifth Place
The Giants won only 73 games (89 losses) a year ago – and did not take any notable actions to right the ship. Keep in mind, this is a team that outscored and out-homered only Miami in the National League.
In 2018 the Giants’ Triple Crown was split among Buster Posey (Batting average .285); Evan Longoria (Home Runs – 16); and Andrew McCutchen (RBI-55).
Buster Posey – Face of the Giants.
Let’s look at the offense for 2019. This middle of the order will go to some combination of C Buster Posey, 1B Brandon Belt, 3B Evan Longoria and SS Brandon Crawford (notice no corner OF in that list). Posey (.284-5-41 in 2018) is a six-time All Star and career .306 hitter – but he is 32-years-old, has started nearly 900 games crouching behind the plate and is coming off knee surgery. Belt (.253-14-46) also faced injury issues in 2018 (appendectomy and knee surgery). He is a solid hitter, capable of better when healthy. He has, however, played at least 150 games only twice in eight MLB seasons. Brandon Crawford provides solid defense at shortstop and can be counted on for double-digit home runs (.254-14-54); while Longoria had some trouble adjusting to spacious AT&T Park (.244-16-54 in his first season as a Giant). Longoria missed time due to a fractured hand (played just 125 games) – and ended up with career lows in average, home runs and RBI. The Giants are looking for more out of the 33-year-old, who averaged 144 games, .270, 26 home runs and 89 RBI in his ten seasons with Tampa Bay.
Joe Panik is slated for 2B – and he also missed time in 2018 due to injury (groin and thumb). In 125 games, Panik hit .254-24). In four full MLB seasons, he has average just 118 games per campaign. Then there is that outfield. The Giants signed free agent Gerardo Parra (Rockies) to bring some experience to an otherwise quite raw group of fly chasers. Parra offers a steady bat, but not much power (.284-6-53, with 11 steals for the Rockies). Expect him to get the bulk of the time in LF. Steven Duggar will be back in CF. Duggar was called up last July and showed good speed and solid defensive skills, but hit just .255-2-17 (with a .303 on-base percentage). The RF spot looks to belong to one of: Mac Williamson; Austin Slater; and Chris Shaw (all relatively unproven at the MLB level).
The pitching staff has also faced the injury bug. The acknowledged staff leader, southpaw Madison Bumgarner was 6-7, 3.26 in 21 starts, after suffering a broken metacarpal on his pitching hand. Jeff Samardzija went 1-5, 6.25 in ten starts (shoulder); and Johnny Cueto (3-2, 3.23 in nine starts) suffered through elbow issues that led to Tommy John surgery in August. Cueto is not likely to see a major league mound until September. It’s not all bad news, however. Joining Bumgarner and Samardzija the rotation, you can expect to see promising 27-year-old righty Derek Rodriguez (6-4, 2.81 in 21 games/19 starts as a rookie) and lefty Derek Holland (7-9, 3.57, with 169 strikeouts in 171 1/3 innings). Also in the mix are free-agent signee Drew Pomeranz (2-6, 6.08 with Boston, but a 17-game winner in 2017); Andrew Suarez; and Chris Stratton.
The bullpen will be led by closer Will Smith (2-3, 2.55, 14 saves, with 71 strikeouts in 53 innings). Also in-line for critical innings are Mark Melancon (3.23 in 41 appearances), Tony Watson (2.59 in 72 appearances) and Sam Dyson (2.69 in 74 appearances). The pen should be a strength, provided they can be handed a lead often enough. That’s not a given.
KEY OFF-SEASON MOVE
Not much action here. I’m going to go with the signing of Drew Pomeranz. Just 2-6, 6.08 for Boston (injuries) last season, Pomeranz was a 17-game winner in 2017. The Giants would like to see a rebound.
PLAYER TO WATCH
Outfielder Austin Slater (26-years-old) may be on the cusp of full-time big-league work. In 2017-18, he hit .263-4-39 in 108 games for the Giants. In five minor league seasons, he has hit .313 in 357 games – including .344 in 53 games at Triple A Sacramento last season. He has a .319 average in three Triple A seasons, so he doesn’t have anything to prove in the minors.
TOMORROW – AMERICAN LEAGUE EAST
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