It’s Day Four of BBRT’s 2019 Preview Week and time to move on to the American League – again going East to West. Things, as I continue to caution, can change – particularly since there are still some “difference makers” out there on the free-agent market (Like Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel). BBRT today continues its look at each MLB Division, this time the AL East. Once we’ve gone through the divisions, we’ll wrap up with predictions for the major awards (ROY, CYA, MVP). Note: After the general comments, each team is reviewed in more detail. Keep in mind, these are just BBRT’s opinions and conjecture – not the result of any inside insight or info.
For the NL East Preview, click here.
For the NL Central, click here.
For the NL West, click here.
For the AL Central, click here.
For the AL West, click here.
For the major awards, click here.
AMERICAN LEAGUE EAST
Red Sox
Yankees (Wild Card)
Rays
Blue Jays
Orioles
The Red Sox won 108 games – and the Division title – a year ago; and the boys in the band are pretty much back. They boast a solid offense, led by Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez – and can expect even more from Rafael Devers. The rotation is again led by Chris Sale and has solid arms from one-through-five. The only weakness might be in the bullpen, where they did not re-sign elite closer Craig Kimbrel. The Yankees have 13’1” and 527 pounds of power in Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton (and a number of other thumpers), as well as a lights-out bullpen. Concerns with the starting rotation, however, will keep them in the Wild Card spot. The Rays and their “Opener Strategy” and “Bullpen Days” will again be competitive, but don’t have the offense to catch the Red Sox or Yankees. Toronto will be looking up in the standing and waiting for Vlad Guerrero, Jr.; while the Orioles look to be in for another long season.
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RED SOX – First Place
2018 AL MVP Mookie Betts will again lead the BoSox offense – and he’ll have plenty of help.
Photo by Keith Allison 
The Red Sox went 108-54 last season – and brought home a World Series Championship. Pretty much the same cast in in place, and they are ready for an encore. The rotation and lineup are back intact and the offense might even be improved, depending on when Dustin Pedroia returns 2B. The only potential weakness is in the bullpen, where 2018 closer Craig Kimbrel – one of the best in the business – is still out there as a free agent.
Let’s start with the potential trouble spot – closer. The contest looks to be between Matt Barnes and Ryan Brasier. Brasier, however, has had health issues this spring (toe) and Barnes probably now has the edge. The 29-year-old Barnes would bring a 96-mph fastball and a solid curve to the ninth inning. In a setup role last season, he went 6-4, 3.65 in 62 appearance. More important, he fanned 96 batters in 61 2/3 innings. Looking further into the pen, potential key components include: Brasier (1.60 in 34 games); Heath Embree (4.20 in 67 games); Hector Valazquez (3.18 in 47 games); and Brandon Workman (3.27 in 43 games). Given what we can expect will be a tight race with the Yankees, I anticipate the Red Sox will move to bolster the bullpen by mid-season.
CONSISTENCY NOT NECESSARILY A HOBGOBLIN …
Chris Sale has been among the top five AL Cy Young Award vote-getters in each of the past six seasons – although he has never captured the award.
The rotation looks set, minus some health concerns (regarding southpaw Chris Sale’s shoulder). With proper handling, Sale (12-4, 2.11 with 237 strikeouts in 158 innings) should again turn in performance worthy of Cy Young Award consideration. Sale will be followed in the rotation by another veteran lefty, David Price. The 2012 Cy Young Award winner went 16-7, 3.58 in 30 starts and has won 15 or more games in five of the last seven seasons. Next up is another former CYA (2016), who doesn’t put up as flashy a stat line as Sales or Price, but pitches well enough to when (a la, perhaps, Jack Morris). Rick Porcello went 17-7, 4.28 in 2018 and has posted double-digit wins in nine of his ten MLB seasons. The fourth starter will be Eduardo Rodriguez (13-5, 3.82, with 144 strikeouts in 129 innings). At 26, he may be on the verge of a breakout season. Post-season hero Nathan Eovaldi will also be back. Acquired last July in a trade with the Rays (and signed for 2019 as a free agent), Eovaldi went 3-3, 3.33 in 12 appearances for the Red Sox (11 starts). Eovaldi, who has twice had Tommy John surgery, needs to be handled with care. If any of these falter, knuckleballer Steven Wright or prospect Darwinzon Hernandez could take a spot.
No team scored more runs in 2018 than the Red Sox (876). They also led MLB in team batting average (.268) and slugging percentage (.453).
In 2018, The Red Sox had two of the top four vote betters in the AL Most Valuable Player balloting – and that’s a pretty good way to start your offense. It begins with 2018 AL MVP Mookie Betts, the AL batting champ (.346), who also hit 32 home runs, stole 30 bases, drove in 81 runners and scored an AL-best 129 runs. Oh, and the Red Sox’ RF also brought home his third consecutive Gold Glove. He gets plenty of help from DH J.D. Martinez (fourth in the MVP voting), who hit .330, with 43 home runs and a league-topping 130 RBI. Joining Betts in the garden will again be LF Andrew Benintendi – just 24-year-old – who hit .290-16-87, with 21 steals (and there may be a Gold Glove in his future). CF belongs to 2018 Gold Glover Jackie Bradley, Jr. (.234-13-57, with 17 steals).
In the infield, 3B Rafael Devers (just 22-years-old) hit 21 home runs in 121 games (.240 average, 66 RBI) and has tremendous upside. He just needs to hone his plate discipline – 38 walks and 121 whiffs. Devers can look to his left for advice from young (26-years-old), but veteran (seventh MLB season) shortstop Xander Bogaerts – who hit .288, with 23 home runs and 103 RBI last season. In his first full season, Bogaerts drew 39 walks and fanned 138 times. By 2018, his walks were up by 17, his whiffs down by 39 and his average up 48 points. Over to Bogaerts’ left, the Red Sox hope to see more of a familiar face this season – 2007 Rookie of the Year, 2008 AL MVP, four-time All Star and four-time Gold Glover Dustin Pedroia. Pedroia missed nearly all of 2018 (knee) and will start the season on the injured list. He is expected to return early in the season and, if healthy, should be good for a .300 average (his career mark) and 15 long balls. Until Pedroia is ready – or when he needs occasional rest – the Red Sox have plenty of protection in the versatile Brock Holt (.277-7-46 in 109 games) and Eduardo Nunez (.265-10-44 in 127 games). Both can effectively play multiple positions. Over at 1B, we’re likely to see both left-handed hitting Mitch Moreland (.245-15-68) and righty Steve Pearce (.284-11-42). The bulk of the catching will be handled by Christian Vazquez (.207-3-16 in 80 games), who has shown solid defensive skills.
In 2018, Brock Holt started games at 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, LF, RF and DH.
Overall, Boston has a balanced and talented offense (power, contact and speed), a solid rotation and a bullpen with potential. They should again hold off the Yankees.
KEY OFF-SEASON MOVE
When you win 108 games, you’re not likely to make a lot of changes. As expected, the Red Sox were quiet on the free-agent front. The biggest move by the Red Sox was one of subtraction, rather than addition. It was not re-signing free-agent closer Craig Kimbrel, who has 333 MLB saves (108 saves for Boston over the past three seasons). Of course, Kimbrel is still on the market, so that could change (not likely, though).
PLAYER TO WATCH
For BBRT, it’s Matt Barnes. Barnes and Ryan Brasier are in the Red Sox’ closer race (they could even share the job). I lean toward Barnes, who has shown closer stuff – improving each season. His strikeouts per nine ratio has gone like this: 2014 – 8.0; 2015 – 8.2; 2016 – 9.6; 2017 – 10.7; 2018 – 14.0. Still, he only has two saves in his five-season MLB career (20 wins and 14 losses) and his 3.65 ERA in 2018 was his career best. BBRT will be watching to see how Barnes and Brasier are handled as the season opens.
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YANKEES – Second Place (Wild Card)
I must admit, I originally projected the Yankees’ would overtake the Red Sox for the East Division title. But then, Luis Severino – the expected Yankee rotation “ace” – came down with shoulder issues. (In addition, CF and lead off man Aaron Hicks has had back issues this spring and may not be in the Opening Day lineup.) The race between arch-rivals Red Sox and Yankees is likely to be so close, missing Severino for three to four weeks could be critical. (I also thought it was interesting that the Yankees – as I write this – are working toward a deal with veteran free-agent Gio Gonzalez, who went 10-11, 4.21 for the Nationals and Brewers last season. Could this indicate a level of concern regarding the rotation? Gonzalez, by the way, has started 30 or more games in eight of the past ten seasons).
Still, the Yankees have plenty of power in the lineup (an MLB-record 267 home runs a year ago), a truly lights-out bullpen and (I believe) just enough quality in the rotation to once again capture a Wild Card sport.
In 2018, the Yankees set a new MLB record with 267 home runs – but were still outscored 876 to 851 by the Red Sox (208 round trippers). Boston also had an edge in runs surrendered (647-669).
Aaron Judge … holding court in the Yankee lineup.
Photo by Keith Allison
Let’s start with the lineup. It’s hard to find a weak spot in the Yankee lineup. In 2018, six Bronx Bombers hit at least 20 home runs and five drove in 75 or more runs. It all starts with DH Giancarlo Stanton (.266-38-100), who has topped 30 long balls in every season in which he has played at least 120 games (five of nine). He can expect plenty of help from RF Aaron Judge, who went .278-27-67 in 112 game last season (wrist fracture) – after hitting 52 home runs as a rookie in 2017. A really good sign: Last season, Judge improved his plate discipline, walking 67 times and fanning 76 – as compared to 2017’s 127 walks and 208 K’s. Judge can truly be a big (6’7” – 282 lbs.) bat in the Yankee line up. Sticking with the outfield, CF (and switch hitter) Aaron Hicks had a career year in 2018 (.248-27-79, with 11 steals) and plus-defender Brett Gardner (.236-12-45, with 16 steals should be back in LF. If any of these miss time, 24-years-old Clint Frazier (.305-11-24 in 52 minor league games and .265 in 15 games for the Yankees last season) could pick up some playing time. Note: Hicks may miss some early time.
The Yankees boast unexpected power in the infield. Rookie 3B Miguel Andujar was sterling, going .297-27-92. He’s just 24-years-old and had plenty of upside (his 47 doubles point to 30-35 home run potential). Second base goes to 22-year-old Gleyber Torres, who also has an intriguing upside, after going .271-24-77 as a rookie in 2018. At 1B, the Yankees can look to the surprising Luke Voit, who hit .333-14-33 in 39 games for the Yankees. It appears Voit has a notable edge over Greg Bird, who has yet to live up to offensive expectations (.199-11-38 in 82 games). There could be issues at SS. While Didi Gregorius (27 home runs in 2018) is probably out until July (Tommy John surgery), the Yankees brought in veteran free-agent Troy Tulowitzki to fill the gap. Tulo has seven 20+ home run season on his resume, but also has had injury issues in the past (missed the 2017 after heel surgery and has had only three seasons of 140 or more games in 12 MLB campaigns). We’ll have to see how this works out. If Tulowitzki can’t hold the SS spot until Degregorius returns, the Yanks do have options. Torres could slide over to short and free-agent (Rockies) signee DJ LeMahieu could handle 2B. LeMahieu is a two-time All Star and three-time Gold Glover, with a batting title and a .298 career average on his resume. He might just force his way into the lineup. Gary Sanchez and Austin Romine will handle the catching. Sanchez offers more power (17 home runs, but only a .186 average in 89 games), while Romine offers better defense (and did hit .244, with ten home runs, in 77 games).
Luis Severino faced some shoulder issues in Spring Training and will not get the Opening Day start. Indications are that he won’t miss much time. Of more concern may be his 2018 first half/second half splits. Severino went 14-2, 2.31 before the All Star break and 5-6, 5.57 after.
The starting rotation does raise cause for concern, with two members of the anticipated rotation not ready for Opening Day. Staff leader, 25-year-old Luis Severino (19-8, 3.39, with 220 strikeouts in 191 1/3 innings), is facing shoulder issues. In addition, six-time All Star, 18-season veteran C.C. Sabathia (9-7, 3.65 in 29 starts) will start the season on the Injured List (The 38-year-old Sabathia an angioplasty in the off season).
Opening Day now belongs to 30-year-old Masahiro Tanaka, who went 12-6, 3.75 a year ago and has double-digit wins in each of his five MLB seasons. Next up is James Paxton (acquired in a trade with the Mariners). The 30-year-old southpaw is entering his seventh MLB season. Over the past two years with Seattle, he has gone 23-11, 3.40 and fanned 364 batters in 296 1/3 innings. He should have more opportunities for wins as part of the Yankee rotation. The third spot in the rotation will be J.A. Happ – acquired by the Yankees in July and re-signed. Happ – a 12-year-veteran and a 20-game winner in 2016 – was a solid pickup for the Yankees. After going 10-6, 4.18 for the Blue Jays before the trade, he went 7-0, 2.69 in 11 starts for New York. The absence of Severino and Sabathia opens up a spot for Jonathan Loaisiga. The 24-year-old turned in a 6-1, 2.89 record at three minor-league levels in 2018. He was 2-0, 5.11 in nine appearances with the Yankees. It also opens the door (or at least a window) for Domingo German (but a fifth starter may not be needed until May).
The bullpen is fully loaded and ready to fire. These power arms can close down a game in a big hurry. It starts with closer Aroldis Chapman and his consistently 100 mph+ heater. Chapman was 3-0, 2.45 with 32 saves a year ago – and fanned 16.3 batters per nine innings. Also returning are Dellin Betances (2.70 ERA in 66 appearances, with 15.5 whiffs per nine); Chad Green (2.50 in in 63 appearances and 11.2 strikeouts per nine innings); and Zach Britton (3.10 in 41 appearance for the Orioles and Yankees – and 142 career saves on his resume). And, in a “the rich get richer” kind of moment, there is also free-agent signee (Rockies) Adam Ottavino, who put up a 2.43 ERA in 75 appearance for Colorado, striking out 13.0 batters per nine.
Overall the Yankees have a powerful line up and a, perhaps even more, powerful bullpen. Questions about the starting pitching and at shortstop may keep them from overtaking the Red Sox – but I can’t see them finishing any lower than second (and in a Wild Card spot).
KEY OFF-SEASON PICKUP
Some would point to the signing of Adam Ottavino – adding to an already dominant bullpen – or to the signing of DJ LeMahieu – a two-time All Star and three tie Gold Glover – who can play all around the infield. Given the Yankees early rotation issues, BBRT will go with the signing of James Paxton, who went 23-11, 3.40 for Seattle over the last two seasons. The Yankees needed the added depth to the rotation.
PLAYER TO WATCH
BBRT will be watching Luke Voit to see if his bat is for real. In 2018, with the Cardinals and Yankees, Voit hit .322-15-36 in 47 games. After hitting between .242 and .273 in his first three minor-league season, Voit broke out in 2016 with a .297-19-74 season at Double A (St. Louis system) and then went .327-13-50 in 74 games at Triple A in 2017. A 2018 call up to the Cardinals led to a .246-4-18 line in 62 games. Back in the minors in 2018, Voit hit .301-11-14 in 78 games, before his solid performance for the Yankees. It will be interesting to see what Voit can do over a full MLB season.
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RAYS – Third Place
Last May (May 19, precisely), the Rays launched what is now known as the “Opener” strategy. Starting an “opener” (charged with getting the first three to six outs) and following up with a more traditional starter or long reliever. They also initiated “Bullpen Days” when relievers owned the whole game.
HOW’S THAT FOR OPENERS?
In the Rays “Opener” strategy, the most-used opener (Ray Stanek) started 29 games (in 59 appearances) – and averaged 1.4 innings pitched per start. How effective was the strategy? The Rays won 15 and lost 14 in those 29 Stanek starts. Overall, the Rays wet 46-38 when using traditional starters and 44-34 with the Opener strategy and Bull Pen days combined.
Despite the success of its “Opener” strategy, the Rays did go out and add a traditional starter in the off-season – free-agent (Astros) Charlie Morton (15-3, 3.13 in 30 starts). Morton boasts a high-90’s heater and, last season, whiffed 201 batters in 167 innings.
EVER WATCH FEAR FACTOR?
Charlie Morton – a 2018 All Star – brings a mid-to-high-90’s heat, a knee-buckling curve and a willingness to “go inside” to his mound work. Morton has led his league in hit batsmen four times in the last six seasons.
Despite his 29-10 record over the past two seasons, Morton will not be the “ace” of the traditional portion of the Rays’ rotation. That honor goes to 26-year-old southpaw Blake Snell, the 2018 American League Cy Young Award winner. Snell led the AL in wins with 21 and ERA at 1.89, while fanning 221 in 180 2/3 innings. The third true starter on the staff will be Tyler Glasgow – picked up from the Pirates last July in the Chris Archer trade. The big (6’8”/220-pound) righty went 1-5, 4.20 in 11 starts for the Rays – but has a high-90’s fastball (that occasionally reaches tripe-digits) and the Rays are hoping to harness his potential. (Morton may prove a good mentor.) The final two “starts” will be Opener or Bullpen Days. I find that a little scary, but maybe I’m just being too “old school.”
The Rays’ 3.74 team earned run average (3.74) was the second-best in the AL last season, so who am I to criticize their Opener and Bullpen Days strategies. I’m still waiting to see the longer-term impact of the new roles on bullpen arms and starter psyches. Still, the addition of Morton relieves (pun intended) some of the pressure off a bullpen that threw an MLB-high 824 innings last year. Pitching – in whatever form – is likely to be strength again.
The bullpen features a new closer. (Sergio Romo, who saved 25 games a year ago left via free agency.) The new ninth-inning guy is likely to be 24-year-old southpaw Jose Alvarado, who has great stuff, but has also shown command issues. Alvarado went 1-6. 2. 39 in 70 games last season, fanning 80 in 54 innings – but also walking 29. In six minor league seasons, he’s walked 153 (and struck out 263) in 229 1/3 innings. If he can keep the ball in the strike zone, he has the potential to become a top closer. Other key traditional bullpen arms include: Diego Castillo (4-2, 3.18 in 43 games/11 starts), Chaz Roe (1-3, 3.58 in 61 games) and newcomer (trade) Emilio Pagan (3-1, 4.35 in 55 games for Oakland). Then, of course, there are a lot of less traditional (at least in usage) bullpen members. Like Ryne Stanek (remember him from earlier), who went 2-3, 2.98 in 59 appearances (including 29 starts of two innings or less) and Ryan Yarbrough (often the second out the pen in Opener games), who went 16-6, 3.91 in 38 games (six starts) and 147 1/3 innings. The long (and mostly short) of it, the Rays will use a well-stocked bullpen and an non-traditional approach to “getting outs” again this season. The proof may be in the pudding, but I doubt they will improve on last season’s 90 wins or third-place finish.
Rays SS Willy Adames – on his way up. Photo by hueytaxi
The Rays came up a little short on offense a year ago – finishing ninth in the AL in runs scored (and more than 100 runs behind both the Red Sox and Yankees) and 14th in home runs – despite the league’s third-highest team batting average. (Remember, the Rays had the AL’s second-lowest ERA and still didn’t make the post-season.) It was a team that needed power, but released their leading home run hitter (C.J. Cron). While they did add a few bats in the off season, the Rays will still face a power shortage in 2019. Let’s look first at the newcomers. Avasial Garcia (free agent) went .236-19-49 in 93 games for the White Sox a year ago and should see time at DH and in a corner OF spot. The Rays also picked up Yandy Diaz (trade, Indians), who can play either corner infield position, but has only one home run in 88 MLB games (a .283 average). Mike Zunino (trade, Mariners) brings power and solid defense the backstop position (.201-20-44 in 113 games). As you can see, the Rays did not do a lot to address the power shortage. In fact, they may hit even fewer home runs in 2019 with Cron’s 30 dingers gone to the Twins.
Let’s scan the infield. First base may belong to Ji-Man Choi (.269-10-32 in 61 games), although Yandy Diaz could see some time there. Also in the mix is 23-year-old Nathaniel Lowe, who hit .330-27-102 at three minor-league stops last season. If he is ready for the major league batter’s box, the Rays’ offense could take a step forward. Second base is likely to go to Joey Wendle (.300-7-61, with 16 steals), who will partner with SS Willy Adames (.278-10-34 in 85 games). Adames has considerable upside and could be a catalyst for the Ray’s offense. Third base looks like Matt Duffy (.294-4-44). One proviso here: We may see some shifting of infield positions, particularly if the Rays work at getting Daniel Robertson’s bat (.262-9-34 in 87 games) into the lineup. Robertson, last season, started games it 2B (35), SS (25), 3B (14) and LF (1).
The outfield seems more settled. CF Kevin Kiermaier is a two-time Gold Glover in CF, but has had injury issues – topping 105 games played only once in the past five seasons. The Rays are hoping he can bounce back from last season’s .217-7-29 in 88 games. LF goes to Tommy Pham, picked up last season in a trade with the Cardinals. Pham hit .275-21-63, with 15 steals for St. Louis and Tampa a year ago – .343-7-22 in 39 games for the Rays. The Rays need him ready for Opening Day (he has had some shoulder issues). Over in right field, Austin Meadows (.287-6-17 in 59 games for the Pirates and Rays) should hold court. The 24-year-old has hit .294 over six minor-league seasons and has plenty of upside. And, of course, Avasail Garcia can put on a glove – although he seems more likely to stabilize the DH spot (where the Rays used 14 players a year ago).
Ultimately, the Rays have shown a knack for getting the most out of a versatile pitching staff and roster of position players. I expect we’ll see a variety of lineups, continued “new age” pitching strategies and another season of .500+ baseball – but no post season appearance.
KEY OFF-SEASON MOVE
Free-agent Charlie Morton not only brings his 15-3 record and fastball to the Rays, he also brings 11 MLB seasons of experience – which could make him a solid source of advice for Tyler Glasgow.
PLAYER TO WATCH
BBRT will be watching SS Willy Adames – at 23-years-old already a big part of the Rays’ future. The Rays’ number-one prospect started 2018 at Triple A, where he hit .286-4-34 in 64 games. He then hit .278-10-34 in 85 games with the Rays. The key, however, Is that Adames hit only .196 in his first 33 games, but then caught on and hit .330 the rest of the way.
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BLUE JAYS – Fourth Place
A positive youth movement seems to be taking place in Toronto, but it isn’t ready to pay dividends yet. The talk of the town is, of course, Vlad Guerrero, Jr. – the future of third base in Toronto. Speculation is that Guererro will begin the season at Triple A (BBRT won’t get into that controversey), but be called up early in the season. The 20-year-old does not appear to have anything more to prove in the minors. In 2018, he hit .381-20-78, while moving from rookie ball all the way to Triple A. Most telling is that he hit .336, with 6 home runs in 30 games at the minors’ highest level.
The Blue Jays have seen their win total drop in each of the last four seasons: 93-89-76-73.
While the Blue Jays (and their fans) await Guerrero, Brandon Drury (.169-1-10 in only 26 games … migraine, hand fracture) should hold sway at third base. In his first two full MLB seasons (2016-17, Diamondbacks), Drury hit .275, with 29 home runs and 116 RBI in 269 games (playing 1B, 2B, 3B and corner OF). If the 25-year-old Drury returns to form, you may see him at 1B and/or 2B to keep his bat in the lineup.
In the middle of the lineup expect to see 1B Justin Smoak, DH Kendrys Morales and RF Randal Grichuk. Smoak is a solid defender, a steady bat (.242-25-77) and a veteran leader. With the Blue Jays’ new direction, he may eventually be replaced at first by Drury or lefty-swinging, 23-year-old Rowdy Tellez (.314-4-14 in 23 games with the Blue Jays, after .270-13-50 in 112 games at Triple A). Morales, .249-21-57 a year ago, is a proven power source (seven seasons of 20+ home runs), but at 35-years-old may not be the best fit with this squad. He will still get the bulk of DH at bats. Randal Grichuk (.245-25-61) provides a steady presence in RF.
Setting the table in the number-one and number-two spots should be Lourdes Gurriel, Jr. at 2B and Drury at 3B (that changes, of course, when Guerrero comes up). At shortstop and batting down in the order will be free-agent signee Freddy Galvis (.248-13-67) – in his eighth MLB season. SS could eventually go to Gurriel (particularly if, for example, Guerrero comes up t0 play third and Drury moves to 2B).
In 2018, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. tied an MLB record with 11 consecutive multi-hit games (July 11-29). During the steak, he hit .500 (25-for-50), with three home runs, nine RBI and seven runs scored.
Other in the lineup should include: CF Kevin Pillar, and outstanding defender , who hit .252-15-59, with 14 steals a year ago; 23-year-old C Danny Jansen (a solid defender, who hit .247-3-8 in 31 games for the Blue Jays and .275-12-58 in 88 games at Triple A); and an anticipated LF platoon of lefty Bill McKinney (.252-6-13 in 38 games) and righty Teoscar Hernandez (.239-22-57 in 134 contests. ) The Blue Jays are also waiting for prospects like infielder Bo Bichette and OF Anthony Alford to be ready to the big league club. Patience may be a key word for Blue Jays fans in 2018; but the future could be exciting.
Marcus Stroman will lead the Jays’ staff. Photo by apardavila
In the age of power arms leading MLB rotations, the Blue Jays seem to be falling short. Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez are set to lead the staff. Stroman is a ground ball pitcher – coming off some shoulder and blister concerns. He went 4-9, 5.54 last season, fanning 77 batters in 102 1/3 innings. He did pitch 200+ innings in both 2016 and 2017 and the Blue Jays need a bounce back. Sanchez also has had health issues. He was 15-2, 3.00 in 30 2016 starts – but, over the last two seasons, has gone 5-9, 4.72 in just 28 starts. Again, the Blue Jays need a recovery. Free-agent signee Matt Shoemaker is also pointed toward the rotation. A 16-game winner in 2015, he’s also faced health issues and went 8-5, 4.63 – but only threw a total of 108 2/3 innings over the past two seasons. Another bounce back needed. Starting to see a trend? Other potential starters include free-agent signee Clay Bucholz (7-2, 2.01 for the Diamondbacks – coming back from 2017 flexor tendon surgery); Clayton Richard (7-11, 5.53 for the Padres); Ryan Borucki (4-6, 3,87 in 17 starts for the Blue Jays); and Sean Reid-Foley (2-4, 5.13 in seven starts.) Borucki seems like a pretty good bet – having pitched a total of 174 2/3 innings for the Blue and their Triple A affiliate last season. As you can see, the Blue Jays need their rotation candidates to either turn it around or turn it up.
In the bullpen, veteran Ken Giles (4.65 with 26 saves in 26 opportunities) is set. Giles, at 28-years-old, has 160 saves on his resume and should handle the job. Still, his 4.65 earned run average is a regression from his 2.30 of 2017. Bounce back anyone? Other bullpen arms should include: Ryan Tepera (5-5, 3.62 in 68 appearances); David Paulino (after a 2017 80-game suspension and elbow issues, but with a mid-90s heater); and Tim Mayza (2-0, 3.28 in 37 appearances). Mayza, a southpaw who fanned 40 batters in 35 2/3 innings, is intriguing.
Overall, the Blue Jays have some high-potential youngsters in the lineup – who still must prove themselves. Even if the bulk of those youngster come through, the pitching staff still has too many question marks. They are building toward and exciting young squad, but they are not there yet.
KEY OFF-SEASON MOVE
Not a lot to choose from here. BBRT will go with Clay Bucholz, signed as a free-agent (D-backs) and coming back from 2017 arm surgery. Bucholz showed signs of recovery this past season, going 7-2. 2.01 in 16 starts (98 1/3 innings) for Arizona. The two-time All Star could provide a stabilizing force in the Blue Jays’ rotations.
PLAYER TO WATCH
Gotta be Vlad Guererro Jr. Once he comes up, he can be (the Blue Jays hope) the face of the franchise. Just 20-years-old, Guerrero is living up to his Hall of Fame genes. In three minor-league seasons (276 games), he hit’s hit .331, with 41 home runs and 200 RBI. Just as important, he’s put up 146 walks to 135 strikeouts – and a .414 on-base percentage. Further, in the tough Arizona fall League (2018), he hit .351 in 19 games. Wow! When he comes up, keep your eyes open.
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ORIOLES – FIFTH Place
Things are not looking good in Baltimore – unless you are a major fan of crab cakes. Last season, the Orioles gave up the most runs in MLB (824). In fact, they were the only team to surrender at least 800 runs. They were also the only team with an earned run average of 5.00 or higher (5.18). On the offensive side of the game, they finished 27th out of thirty teams (and last in the DH-boasting AL) in runs scored (627) – one of only six teams to score less than 650 runs. Unfortunately, for Baltimore fans, things don’t look much brighter for 2019. The team went 47-115 in 2018 – and I wouldn’t expect a lot more in the season ahead.
Let’s start with the pitching. The Oriole’s rotation looks to be: Dylan Bundy (8-16, 5.45); Andrew Cashner (4-15, 5.29); Alex Cobb (5-15, 4.90); David Hess (3-10, 4.88); and Yefry Ramírez (1-8, 5.92). All righties and all with 2018 ERA’s of at least 4.88. Also in the mix are: Mike Wright (4-2, 5.55) and newcomer, free-agent Nate Karns (coming off 2017 surgery and 2018 elbow issues), who missed the entire 2018 season. Overall, the Orioles starting staff put up a MLB-worst 5.48 ERA last seasons. Outlook for 2019? You have to expect some uptick in pitching. Consider where some of these starters were in 2017): Dylan Bundy (13-9, 4.24); Andrew Cashner (11-11, 3.40); and Alex Cobb (12-10, 3.66).
Richard Bleier, career MLB ERA (111 games) of 1.97. Photo by Keith Allison
The bullpen will be lead by closer Mychal Givens (0-7, 3.99 with nine saves). Others likely to play significant roles in the pen are Richard Bleier, Paul Fry, Miguel Castro and Tanner Scott. There is some hope here. Bleier (3-0, 1.93 in 31 appearances) has a 1.97 ERA in 111 appearances over three MLB seasons. The Orioles’ most reliable arm however is recovering from 2018 surgery (but has pitched in Spring Training). Fry was 1-2, 3.35 in 35 appearances; Castro was 2-7, 3.96 in 63 appearances; and Scott (despite a 5.40 ERA) fanned 76 batters in 53 innings.
In 2018, the Orioles scored the fewest runs in the American League (622) – and Baltimore batsmen put up the unenviable combination of the fourth most-strikeouts (1,412) and fewest walks (422). A bit more plate discipline might be in order.
Looking at the lineup, the 3-4-5 spots are likely to go to LF Trea Mancini (.242-25-58); DH Mark Trumbo (.261-17-44 in 90 games); and 1B Chris Davis (.168-16-49).
Chris Davis’ .168 average was the lowest in MLB history for a qualifying batter.
At the top of the order will be CF Cedric Mullins (.235-4-11 in 45 games) and, perhaps the Orioles’ most valuable player, 2B Jonathan Villar (.260-14-46, with 35 steals, for the Brewers and O’s). The Orioles may also looking for some help from D.J. Stewart in right field. The 25-year-old has hit 49 home runs in four minor league seasons – but hit just .250. Also a possibility in RF Joey Rickard (.244-8-23 in 79 games). In three MLB seasons, the 28-year-old has hit .252-17-61 in 275 games. Holding up the bottom of the order should be: 3B Renato Nunez (.275-7-20 in 60 games) and SS Richie Martin (who hit .300-6-42 at Double A). A bright spot might be 24-year-old catcher Chance Cisco – who has hit just .197 in 73 MLB games – but has had a strong spring and has hit .306 over six minor league seasons.
KEY OFF-SEASON MOVE
The Orioles used the top pick in the December 2018 Rule 5 Draft to pick up 23-year-old SS Richie Martin from the Oakland A’s. A 2015 first-round pick, Martin hit .257 in four minor league seasons – but .300-6-42, with 25 steals at Double A Midland last season. Given the Orioles’ situation, he could end up the starting shortstop in 2018.
PLAYER TO WATCH
In 2018, DH Chris Davis his .168-16-49 in 128 games. Here’s a guy who just three seasons ago (2016) hit 38 home runs. He also has a 50+ HR season and a pair of 200+ strikeout seasons on his resume. I’m anxious to see what happens next.
COMING UP – THE AL CENTRAL
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