Tomorrow (November 6), the finalists for four key 2023 Baseball Writers Association of America Awards (AL & NL Most Valuable Player, Cy Young Award, Rookie of the Year and Manager of the Year) will be announced. As a warm up to that announcement, Baseball Roundtable will dedicate this post to its predictions of the eventual winners, as well as who would get The Roundtable’s votes (if I had votes). Hence the blog title “Predictions and Preferences.” As usual, my choices are up for discussion and debate. I would anticipate that some will find one or two of “preferences” a bit old school. In any case, I will provide the reasoning behind my selections. So, Let’s get on with it.
MOST VALUABLE PLAYER
NATIONAL LEAGUE…
Prediction: Ronald Acuna Jr., RF, Braves
Roundtable Preference: Ronald Acuna Jr., RF, Braves
Photo: Thomson200, CC0, via Wikimedia Commons
Well, this one looks like a two-player race – the Braves’ Ronald Acuna, Jr. and Dodgers’ Mookie Betts. Both put up MVP-worthy numbers. I was drawn to Betts because he put up some outstanding numbers for a leadoff hitter (his 107 RBI are the MLB record for runs driven in from the leadoff spot) and he popped 40 doubles and 39 homers to go with a .307 average. Just as important, he filled in (admirably) wherever the Dodgers needed him – starting 107 games in RF, 70 at 2B and 12 at SS. That versatility (and defensive skills) helped the Dodgers overcome injuries and disappointments. Had the Dodgers won their division by six games instead of 16, Betts probably would have been The Roundtables’ choice.
However, I have to go with the Acuna. As the chart below shows, he edged Betts in most traditional offensive statistical categories. Then, there are those 73 stolen bases – which meant a host of singles turned into doubles; opposing pitchers distracted and under pressure; and an increased number of fastballs for those hitting behind him. In my consideration, those factors balanced out the versatility brought to the field and the lineup by Betts. Then of course, there is Acuna’s first-ever MLB 40-70 (HR/SB) season and the fact that down the stretch (September/October), Acuna hit .340-11-23 to Betts’ .244-1-9. (To be fair, Betts had an outstanding August (.455-11-30).
AMERICAN LEAGUE…
Prediction: Shohei Ohtani, DH/P, Angels
Roundtable Preference: Shohei Ohtani, DH/P, Angels
What can you say? Shohei Ohtani led the American League in home runs with 44 (despite playing in just 135 games), while hitting .304, driving in 95 runs, scoring 102, legging out eight triples and stealing 20 bases. He also went 10-5, 3.14 on the mound (23 starts) and fanned 167 batters in 132 innings. And, he ran up these numbers despite going down due to an oblique injury in early September. Those missed games and the fact that Angels finished 73-89, 17 games off the pace in the AL West do work against him. (Some would argue that Angels could have finished fifth without him.) The Roundtable considered that the Angels were 14-9 (.609 ball) in games he started on the mound and 59-80 (.424) in games he didn’t pitch. In games in which Ohtani appeared in the lineup, the Angels played .459 ball; as opposed to .407 when he wasn’t on the field.
Shohei Ohtani is the first MLB player with 40 or more home runs and ten or more pitching victories in a single season.
I might add that – if you find it difficult to accept an MVP from a fourth-place team – I would look to Rangers’ middle infield for a candidate. Texas shortstop Corey Seager raked at .327-33-96 pace, with 88 runs scored and a league-topping 42 doubles. Second baseman Marcus Semien also had an outstanding year, going .276-29-100. He was fourth in the AL in RBI and led the league in runs scored with 122.
CY YOUNG AWARD
NATIONAL LEAGUE…
Prediction: Blake Snell, Padres
Roundtable Preference: Spencer Strider, Braves
The Roundtable believes the “bright and shiny thing” that will sway enough BBWAA voters toward Blake Snell is his MLB-low (among qualifiers) 2.25 earned run average. For The Roundtable (and this may be some of that “old school” mentality), a 20-win season is still a key measure of value. So, my preference is the Braves’ Spencer Strider, who put up 20 wins (three more than any other pitcher and six more than Snell). In comparing these two front runners, each had 32 starts. In those starts Strider pitched 186 2/3 innings to Snell’s 180 innings (had Snell gone notably deeper into games than Strider, he may have gotten the Roundtable nod).
A few other factors. In this strikeout-focused aera, Strider fanned an MLB-high 281 batters (Snell was fourth at 234). Strider also walked just 58 batters to Snell’s 99, while Snell gave up 31 fewer hits (115 to 146). Notably, Snell and Strider had very similar WHIPs (1.09 for Strider versus 1.19) for Snell. Snell, however, proved more adept at avoiding damage (as witnessed by his 2.25 ERA to Strider’s 3.86). For those favoring Snell, being fair requires that I note Snell held hitters to an MLB-low (among qualifiers) .181 average, while Strider was fifth at .210. Still, I just can’t get past MLB’s only 2023 20-game winner.
Blake Snell was the only qualifying pitcher to hold opposing hitters to an under .200 average in 2023.
AMERICAN LEAGUE…
Prediction: Gerrit Cole Yankees
Roundtable Preference: Gerrit Cole, Yankees
Photo: All-Pro Reels from District of Columbia, USA, CC BY-SA 2.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0>, via Wikimedia Commons
Hard to find a reason for debate here. Gerrit Cole went 15-4 (in 33 starts) and had the AL’s lowest qualifying earned run average (2.63). He also led the league (among qualifiers) in WHIP (0.98) and average against (.206). And, he topped the league in shutouts (two); innings pitched (209); and winning percentage (.789). He was third in strikeouts (220). Cole averaged 6 1/3 innings per start and went seven or more innings in ten outings. And, his record could have been better. He had six no-decisions in which he gave up zero or one run. Overall, he gave up two or fewer runs in 26 of his 33 starts
ROOKIE OF THE YEAR
NATIONAL LEAGUE…
Prediction: Corbin Carroll, OF, Diamondbacks
Roundtable Preference: Corbin Carroll, OF, Diamondbacks
Photo: Casey Aguinaldo, CC BY-SA 4.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa4.0> via Wikimedia Commons
Arizona’s 23-year-old rookie Corbin Carroll brought power and speed to the table – putting up a .285 average, with 25 home runs, 76 RBI, 116 runs scored and 54 stolen bases in 59 attempts. He led all 2023 MLB rookies in runs; hits (161); triples (10); and stolen bases. Among rookies, he was fourth in doubles (37) and second in home runs. His .285 average was second among qualifying rookies and first among NL qualifying rookies. Carroll played in 155 games (second-most among for NL rookies). Carroll also showed outfield versatility, starting 53 games in LF, 57 in RF and 34 in CF. (Note: Carroll did get in 32 Diamondback’s games in 2022, keeping his rookie status intact.)
If I had to pick a runner-up(s), I would go with:
- Reds’ 25-year-old 1B Spencer Steer, who played in 156 games, hitting .271-23-86, with 15 steals and 74 runs scored.
- Mets’ starting pitcher Kodai Senga , who went 12-7, 2.98 in 29 starts. He led all rookie pitchers in wins, strikeouts (202) and innings pitched (166 1/3 )and led qualifying rookies in earned run average. Notably, the thirty-year-old had 11 seasons in Nippon Professional Baseball before making his NL debut. Over those seasons, he went 87-44, 2.59.
AMERICAN LEAGUE…
Prediction: Gunnar Henderson, 3B, Orioles
Roundtable Preference: Gunnar Henderson, 3B, Orioles
Photo: Maryland GovPics, CC BY 2.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0>, via Wikimedia Commons
Another easy pick. Henderson appeared in 150 games for the Orioles, hitting .255-28-82, with 100 runs scored and 10 steals. His 28 home runs topped all 2023 MLB rookies; his 82 RBI were second (first among AL rookies); his 100 runs scored second (first among AL rookies). He was also among the top five among MLB rookies in hits, doubles, triples. Like Carroll (above), Henderson showed versatility in the field, starting 68 games at 3B and 64 at shortstop.
A runner-up? A couple of Roundtable choices:
- The Guardians’ 24-yr-old righty Tanner Bibee, who went 10-4, 2.98 in 25 starts, fanning 141 batters in 142 innings.
- Astros’ C Yainer Diaz, who Went .284-23-60 in 104 games.
For a look at Baseball Roundtable’s full 2023 All-Rookie Lineup (and All-Time, All-Rookie Team), click here.
MANAGER OF THE YEAR
NATIONAL LEAGUE…
Prediction: Craig Counsell, Brewers
Roundtable Preference: (Tie) Craig Counsell, Brewers and and Skip Schumaker, Marlins
Okay, a tie is a cop out – but I could find good reasons to split my vote among these two.
Photo: Arturo Pardavila III from Hoboken, NJ, USA, CC BY 2.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0>, via Wikimedia Commons
Craig Counsell has consistently brought the Brewers in with wins totals above what analysts (and analytics) project. This year, he brought the Brewers in at 92-70 – capturing the NL Central title. His solid record as a manager is evidenced by the fact that in the five seasons between 2018 and 2022, he finished second in the NL Manager of the Year voting three times. Having spent 16 years on the field as a player, Counsell has gained a reputation as a players’ manager – tough, but fair – who understands the game and how to position players for success. This is likely the year when the writers will give Counsell his due (and recognize his body of work). As an additional note: The chart below provides some evidence of the lineup maneuvering Counsell did as compared to other division winners.
During Craig Counsell’s eight full seasons as manager of the Brewers, the only National League teams with better regular-season won-loss percentages are the Dodgers and Braves.
Photo: U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Zachary D. Behrend, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons
Skip Schumaker brought the Marlins home in third place in the NL East with an 84-78 record. – earning an unexpected Wild Card spot in the post-season. What puts him in this spot in terms of The Roundtable’s preferences is that he did it, despite being outscored by 57 runs over the course of the season. It has been said that a manager can have the most impact on close games – where each move has the potential to be critical to success (or failure). (Side note: I would argue the manager can have an equally potent impact in the clubhouse – shaping the attitude and approach to the game of his players)
But, back to those close games. Well, Shumaker led the Marlins to a 7-3 record in extra innings and a 33-14 record in one-run games. (The only team to win more one-run games than the Marlins this season was the Reds – with 34 one-run wins – but the Reds also had 29 one-run losses.) Schumaker led the Marlins 2023 success despite a down season from 2022 Cy Young Award winner (Sandy Alcantara), as well as some key injuries.
Just behind Counsell an Schumaker is the Dodgers’ Dave Roberts, who fashioned a 100-win season, despite having to almost totally change his pitching plans. At the start of the season, the projected rotation was Julio Urias, Clayton Kershaw, Tony Gonsolin, Dustin May and Noah Syndergaard. Those five started just 87 of the Dodgers 162 games. In fact, the Dodgers were the only division leader that did not have a single pitcher with 25 2023 starts (nine pitchers starter at least nine games for LA). Among the players who moved through the rotation were Emmet Sheehan, Lance Lynn, Michael Grove and Bobby Miller.
AMERICAN LEAGUE…
Prediction: Brandon Hyde, Orioles
Roundtable Preference: Brandon Hyde, Orioles
Photo: (NASA/Joel Kowsky), Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons
No ties here. In the tough AL East, the Orioles were predicted by many prognosticators to finish behind the Yankees, Rays and Blue Jays. Manager Brandon Hyde led the young Baltimore squad to a 101-61 season and the AL East title. He produced an 11-6 record in extra inning games and a 30-16 record in one-run games (the most one-run victories in the AL).
Of the Orioles top ten players in terms of 2023 games started, only one had reached age 30. In addition, only one of their top six pitcher in games started (those pitchers with double-digit starts) had reached age 30, and only one of their six most-called-upon relivers had reached age 30.
Need a runner-up? I’d look to the Twins’ Rocco Baldelli, who overcame injuries to key players Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa to bring home an NL Central title.
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