Wow! Baseball Roundtable’s predictions for Round One (Wild Card Series) of this year’s post-season left a bit to be desired. I got only four of the eight match ups right. You ought to be able to do that by simply flipping a coin. Note: I tried the coin flip before writing this post, giving the higher seed “heads “each flip, and came up with four-for-eight.
I just didn’t see the Astros, with their 29-21 record (and 9-23 road mark) topping the Twins (36-24 overall and 24-7 at home). Maybe, it was my home town “glasses.” I also thought the Reds’ starting combination of Trevor Bauer, Luis Castillo and Sonny Gray could handle the Braves’ offense. I didn’t foresee the Braves staff totally stifling the Reds’ offense. Bauer and Castillo (the Reds two starters) did deliver as expected, pitching a combined 13 innings and giving up just one run, while fanning 19. The Braves’ starers (Max Fried and Ian Anderson) were just a touch better (13 scoreless frames) and the Braves’ bullpen was lights out. I also fanned on the Cubs/Marlins (swayed by the Marlins’ -41 regular-season run differential) and was maybe just a little too impressed by the White Sox’ (versus A’s) offense. The Sox put up 306 regular-season runs to the A’s 274; out hit them .261 to .225 and out-homered them 96-71. In a close series the A’s outscored the Sox 12-11, to take two of three.
What did I get right? The Rays topping the Blue Jays; Dodgers over the Brewers; Padres over the Cardinals; and Yankees over Cleveland. Not too many fans/readers would have missed those. I’ve got another round of predictions at the end of this post, as well as a round of coin-flip projections. But first, a look back at the Wild Card Round.
Despite the strange and short season and the crowded post-season “tourney,” the Wild Card Round did give us some post-season highlights and history.
It’s a Brave(s) New World
The Braves swept the Reds 1-0 and 5-0 and, in the process, the Braves and Reds found themselves on opposite sides of the record book. The Reds’ 20-consecutive scoreless frames represent the most consecutive scoreless innings ever to start a post season. (Conversely, the Braves pitching staff put up the most consecutive scoreless frames to start a post-season.) The two-game series was easy work for scorekeepers, as the Reds had just 13 hits in 22 innings (.169) – with five walks and 28 whiffs. The Braves’ didn’t fare much better, with a .195 average with five walks and 35 strikeouts.
The Other Side of the Coin
While the Reds managed zero runs against the Braves, the Yankees managed to hit .409, slug seven home runs and score 22 times in two games against the Indians (whose staff had the AL’s lowest regular-season earned run average at 3.29). All those Yankee offensive figures are 2020 Wild Card Series MLB highs. The Yankee offense spread the wealth around: 3B Gio Urshela had five RBI, while CF Brett Gardner, C Gary Sanchez, DH Giancarlo Stanton, and SS Gleyber Torres had three each.
Trot Index Pretty Stable
Baseball Roundtable’s traditional Trot Index – documenting the percentage of plate appearances which end in a trot (back to the dugout, around the bases, to first base) – was fairly stable in the Wild Card Round. We’re talking about strikeouts, home runs, walks, hit by pitch and catcher’s interference – all outcomes that are, basically, devoid of action on the base paths or in the field. Here’s the breakout:
As you can see, the number of plate appearances ending in a trot was up just slightly from the regular season, with the post-season’s improved pitching resulting in strikeouts up a bit and home runs down a bit.
Gotta Like Those Round Numbers
Photo by shgmom56, Barbara Moore 
In Game Two of the Cardinals/Padres Series (October 1), Redbirds’ catcher Yadier Molina played in his 100th career post-season game (sixth all-time) and also collected his 100th post-season hit – both all with the Cardinals. Molina, a nine-time All Star, finished the Wild Card Series with a .280 career post-season average, with 101 hits, four home runs and 36 RBI in 101 games.
You’re Up Next … Pass It On
On Friday (October 3), as the Padres won Game Three of their Wild Card Series against the Cardinals by a 4-0 score, they set a modern-era (post-1900) record by using nine pitchers to complete a nine-inning shutout – with no hurler tossing more than 1 2/3 innings. The lineup of pitchers went: starter RH Craig Stammen (1 2/3 IP); LH Tim Hill (1 IP); RH Pierce Johnson (1/3 IP); LH Adrian Morejon (1 2/3 IP); RH Austin Adams (1/3 IP); RH Luis Patino (1 IP); RH Emilio Pagan (1 IP); LH Drew Pomeranz (1 IP); RH Rosenthal (1 IP). The nine pitchers gave up a total of four hits and three walks, while fanning eight (three of those by Rosenthal in the final frame).
Of course, it should have been no surprise. That Padres used eight pitchers in Game One (a 7-4 loss) and nine in Game 2 (an 11-9 win). For those keeping score, that’s 26 pitchers to complete 27 innings (despite the new rules on relievers). Johnson, Pagan, Pomeranz and Rosenthal all appeared in all three games.
Ruth and Gehrig, Make Room for Tatis and Myers
On October 1, as the Padres topped the Cardinals 11-9 in San Diego, Fernando Tatis, Jr. and Wil Myers each bashed a pair of home runs. The only other time teammates have shared multi-homer games in a post-season contest was in 1932 – and the bashers were the Yankees’ Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig, Tatis and Myers matched Ruth and Gehrig exactly 88 years after the Yankee pair accomplished the feat (October 1, 1932 in a 7-5 World Series win over the Cubs). Not bad company, Tatis ended the game three-for-five with two runs scored and five RBI, while Myers ended two-for-four with two runs scored and four RBI. Ruth ended his two-homer World Series game two-for-four with two runs and four RBI, while Gehrig was two-for-five with two runs scored and two RBI.
A Kirilloff-ty Start
The Twins’ Alex Kiriloff got his MLB career off to a lofty start. On September 30, Kiriloff started in right field as the Twins took on the Astros in Game Two of their post-season match up. Kiriloff became just the third player to make his MLB debut in a post-season game and the first to make his MLB debut as a starter in a post-season contest. Kirilloff notched a single in the fourth inning, becoming the first player whose first MLB hit came in the post-season. Others to make their MLB debut in the post season were: Adalberto Mondesi (Royals, 2015 World Series) and Mark Kiger (A’s, 2006 AL Championship Series).
Mondesi made his MLB debut as a pinch-hitter in Game Three of the 2015 World Series, striking out against the Mets’ Noah Syndergaard. It was Mondesi’s only appearance in the Series. He made his MLB regular-season debut the following July and is still with the Royals. Mondesi remains the only player to debut in the World Series and, at the time, much was made of the fact that Mondesi’s father, Raul Mondesi, played played 13 MLB seasons and never appeared in a World Series.
Kiger debuted as a defensive replacement in Game Three of the 2006 ALCS (A’s versus Detroit). He also came on late in Game Four. He didn’t come to the plate in either contest – and never appeared in an MLB game again. Overall, he played 1 2/3 MLB innings and recorded one put out. (Between 2002 and 2009, Kiger played in 878 minor-league games, hitting .264, with 47 home runs and 331 RBI.
No pitcher gave up more earned runs in the 2020 Wild Card Round than the American League’s anticipated Cy Young Award winner, Shane Bieber (Indians) – who gave up seven earned runs on nine hits in 4 2/3 innings versus the Yankees.
18 and Over (for the season)
The Astros with a 29-31 record and the AL’s second-worst road record (9-23) went into Minnesota to play the Twins (36-24, with an MLB-best 24-7 home record this season). Houston pulled off the upset – and, in the process, helped the Twins achieve a record 18 consecutive post-season losses. The Twins’ last post-season win came on October 5, 2004 (Game One of the ALDS) – when the Twins topped the Yankees 2-0 (in New York) behind the pitching of Johan Santana and a home run by Jacque Jones. The next day, the Twins lost to the Bombers 7-6 in 12 innings and the streak began.
It’s been a Hard Day’s Night
Game Two of the Yankees/Indians Wild Card series (September 30) – slated to start at 7 p.m., but delayed by rain – stretched on into Thursday, finishing up at 1:14 a.m. The 10-9 Yankee win involved four-hours and 50 minutes of playing time – making it the longest nine-inning contest in MLB history. The two teams combined for 19 runs, 18 hits, 19 (time-consuming) walks and 24 (also time-consuming) strikeouts,
Cole and Kershaw … Tossing Strikes
The Dodgers’ Clayton Kershaw, at times criticized for his post-season performance (he came into the 2020 post-season with a 9-11, 4.48 post-season record), had his best post-season start ever during the recent Wild Card Round. As the Dodgers stopped the Brewers 3-0 on October 1, Kershaw went eight shutout innings, giving up three hits and one walk, while fanning 13. He was the only starter to go eight innings during the Wild Card Round and his 13 strikeouts tied the Yankees’ Gerrit Cole who fanned a baker’s dozen in seven frames during his start against the Indians on September 29. Cole gave up two runs on six hits (no walks) in that game.
No one had more base hits during the recent Wild Card Round than the White Sox’ Tim Anderson, who went 9-for-14. The Padres’ Fernando Tatis, Jr. and Yankees’ Gio Urshela notched the most RBI in the round,with five; while six players each had two home runs. On the other side of the coin, no batter fanned more than the Cardinals’ Harrison Bader – with seven whiffs in nine at bats (11 plate appearances).
Now, for another shot at predictions (better term is guess this post season).
Americana League Division Series
Astros over A’s … Going for the upset here. Logic says the Athletics’ superior pitching (particularly their bullpen, with its 2.72 ERA) should bring them out on top. I admit here that the Astros regular-season performance was at best mediocre – giving up 275 runs and scoring 279. The Astros’ plus-four run differential compares to the A’s plus-42. But I underestimated the Astros against the Twins, and learned a lesson. Houston seems to be jelling at the right time and playing with a bit of swagger and a sense of purpose. That and the Astros’ considerable post-season experience leads me to take them over the A’s.
Yankees over Rays … Yes, the Rays topped the Yankees eight games-to-two in the regular season, but the Yankees are fully healthy and playing their best baseball of the season. Despite a rash of injuries, the Yankees still launched 94 home runs (to the Rays’ 80) and scored 315 runs (to the Rays’ 289) during the regular season. The Rays do have the better pitching (3.45 ERA to the Yank’ 4.35), but Gerrit Cole being available for a pair of starts should help even that out. Maybe the Bronx Bombers pounding of the Indians’ well-respected pitching staff during the Wild Card Round is that bright shiny thing that distracted me, but I’m going with New York’s potent lineup – led by DJ LeMahieu, Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. Should be a good series.
National League Division Series
Braves over Marlins … The Braves’ offense is pretty well stacked and should be too much for the upstart Marlins. The Braves finished second in average (the Marlins’ 18th); second in home runs (the Marlins 25th); and second in runs scored (Marlins 21st). The Braves are a little weak in the starting rotation after Max Fried and rookie Ian Anderson, which is a disadvantage with the lack of off days. However, the Marlins bullpen put up a regular-season ERA north of 5.00 (the Braves’ bullpen ERA was 3.40, second-best in the National League). I look for the Braves, led by Marcell Ozuna, Freddie Freeman and Ronald Acuna, Jr. to take advantage of the Marlins’ pen and win this one.
Dodger over Padres … The Padres’ offense was solid this season, but the Dodgers were even better. The Dodgers led MLB in runs scored (349, with the Padres third at 325); home runs (118, with the Padres fourth at 95); and, while the Dodgers finished 11th in average at .256, the Padres just edged them out in that category at .257. Even if we look at the two offenses as a tossup, the Dodgers 3.02 earned run average was the best in baseball. The Padres can make it interesting, but BBRT expects the Dodgers to prevail. Lots of players to watch in this one. Difference makers could be the Dodgers’ Mookie Betts and Clayton Kershaw or the Padres’ Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado.
Side note: I tried the coin flip approach and got: A’s; Yankees; Braves; Padres. I think I should be able to beat dumb luck this time.
Picks for the NL & Al Championship Series
Dodgers over Braves
Yankees over Astros
World Series Pick
Dodgers over Yankees
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