As we move on to the World Series, once again, the statistics seem to establish the Braves as underdogs. However, Baseball Roundtable went with the underdog Braves to top the Dodgers and that worked out – so, I’m doubling down and picking Atlanta to top the Astros. When I picked the Braves over the Dodgers, I noted that Joc Pederson’s key pinch-hit home runs in NLDS Games One and Three seemed to establish the 2021 Braves as a team of destiny. That feeling was reinforced in the seventh inning of Game Six when the Dodgers (down by two) put runners on second and third with no outs and Tyler Matzek came in to pitch and fanned Albert Pujols, Steven Souza, Jr. and Mookie Betts on 11 pitches. That’s probably the point at which this prediction was cemented. Whether it’s Pederson, Matzek, NLCS MVP Eddie Rosario, Austin Riley (HR and walk-off single in NLDS Game One) or Will Smith (two wins, four saves and and a o.oo in seven appearances this postseason), the Braves players seem to be stepping up.
Yordan Alvarez, ALCS MVP, hit .522 with six RBI in the six games against Boston. Alvarez Photo: Flickr user thatlostdog–, CC BY 2.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0>, via Wikimedia Commons
Really, when it comes down to it, this predict is about pitching. Both these teams have solid offenses. The Astros bring more star power to the offense with three players with 30 or more home runs (2B Jose Altuve – .278-31-83); RF Kyle Tucker (.294-30-92); DH Yordan Alvarez (.277-33-104). SS Carlos Correa added 26 home runs and 92 RBI to go with a .279 average; LF Michael Brantley hit .311-8-47 in 121 games and 3B Alex Bregman contributed .270-12-55 in 91 contests. The lineup is deep, experienced (the Astros have been to the World Series three times in the past five seasons) and explosive (the Astros have scored 65 runs in ten 2021 post-season games).
Eddie Rosario, NLCS MVP, hit .560 with nine RBI in the six games against the Dodgers.
Of course, the Braves are no slouches on offense. As I’ve noted before, they have perhaps the most powerful infield in MLB right now: 1B Freddie Freeman (.300-31-83); 2B Ozzie Albies (.259-30-106); 3B Austin Riley (.303-33-107) and SS Dansby Swanson (,248-27-88). And, while they lost a key offensive pieces in Ronald Acuna Jr. and Marcell Ozuna, they made some trade deadlines moves that filled the gap – a mid-July trade for Joc Pederson (.249-7-22 in 64 games for the Braves/.238-18-61 overall) and trade deadline acquisitions of Eddie Rosario (.271-7-16 in 33 games for Atlanta/.259-14-62 on the season); Adam Duvall (.226-16-45 in 55 games for Atlanta/.228-38-113 overall); and Jorge Soler (.269-14-33 in 55 games for Atlanta/.223-27-70 overall). The Braves may not be quite as deep or experienced as the Astros, but there is plenty of punch there. While the Braves scored 73 fewer runs then the Astros this season (still third-most in the NL), I’d note that Atlanta’s total included 308 plate appearances by pitchers (.131 average). Offensively, the advantage goes to the Astros – but the difference is not as great as you might think.
Post Trade Deadline – after the Braves’ outfield makeover – Atlanta went 36-19. The Astros went 31-26 over the same period.
Here’s a regular-season stat comparison. Keep in mind, that the designated hitter impacts both the offensive and pitching numbers.
On the mound, the Braves, from my perspective, have a notable edge. The Braves’ rotation looks solid: Charlie Morton (14-6, 3.34), Max Fried (14-7, 3.04) and Ian Anderson (9-5, 3.58) will lead the way; with Drew Smyly (11-4, 4.48 ) the possible fourth starter. On the Astros’ side of the coin, it seems unlikely ace Lance McCullers will start in the Series. In addition, there are concerns regarding Zack Greinke, who has pitched just 2 1/3 innings this post-season. Luis Garcia (11-8, 3.30), Framber Valdez (11-5, 3.14) and Jose Urquidy (8-3, 3.62) will be counted on to hold down the Braves. The Braves’ rotation, from Baseball Roundtable’s perspective, seems to offer more potential for going deeper into starts, enabling the Braves to stick to bullpen “roles.”
A Key Question
A key question for the Astros is who shows up to start on the mound – The Framber Valdez, Luis Garcia, Jose Urquidy and Zack Greinke who lasted a total of 6 2/3 innings in the first four games of the ALCS or a better version of that rotation? (Valdez went eight strong innings in Game Five and Garcia went 5 2/3 scoreless in Game Six – and Greinke and Urquidy have shown more.) The Astros need some length out of their starters to protect the bullpen.
That bullpens looked fairly well matched. Although the Astros have a slight edge at closer (Ryan Pressley … 2.25 ERA, with 26 saves and 11.4 K/9 in 2021) versus Braves’ closer Will Smith (3.33 with 37 saves). Lined up behind (actually in front of) Pressley will be Ryan Stanek (3.42 in 72 appearances, 10.9 K/9), Kendall Graveman (1.77 in 53 appearances for the Mariners and Astros), Brooks Raley (4.78 in 58 games, with 11.9 K/9) and Blake Taylor (3.16 in 51 appearances). Cristian Javier, who made nine starts in 36 appearances, may play an important role if any of the starters falter early. The Braves will likely use Tyler Matzek (2.57 in 69 games, with 11.0 K/9), A.J. Minter (3,78 in 61 appearances) and Luke Jackson (1.98 in 71 appearances) to get to Smith. On the surface, the Astros seem to have a bit of advantage. Their bullpen , however, has been worked harder in the post-season (and have been forced, at times, into varying roles). That, and the extra length the Braves can expect out of their starters, I think, evens things up (or even gives Atlanta a slight edge).
Remember these Names – Smith & Tucker (No, it’s not a law firm.)
So far this post season, Braves’ closer Will Smith has appeared in seven games and picked up two wins and four saves. He’s given up three hits, two walks and no earned runs, while fanning seven.
Astros’ RF Kyle Tucker leads all hitters this post-season, with 15 RBI in ten 2021 games.
Here’s a look at who’s hot, thus far in the 2012 post-season.
Here are post-season stats. Again, keep in mind the impact of the designated hitter.
I may be going against the grain here, but I see a seven-game series, with the Braves winning on the strength of their starting pitching – and a less stressed bullpen.
Primary Resource: Baseball-Reference.com.
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