So far, this post season, I am running 50 percent on my predictions – about where I’d be if I simply flipped a coin and wrote about the frequency of heads and tails. I’m not doing myself any favors with my NLCS pick either. In this case, however, my fan’s heart may have eclipsed my analytical (or common) sense.
Me – A Braves’ fan since …
Smart money – and knowledgeable fans and analysts – are going with the Dodgers in the NL Championship Series. I’m going against the grain – anticipating a hard-fought series and picking the Braves. Let me explain part of the process that got me here. I was a six-year-old living in Milwaukee when the Braves came to town. I grew up on a baseball diet of Eddie Mathews, Hank Aaron, Warren Spahn, Lew Burdette, Billy Bruton (and many more, including the unexpected storm that was Bob “Hurricane” Hazle). The Braves were my first team and Eddie Mathews was my first hero (throughout my baseball and softball years, I always played third base and wore number 41). I have loyally followed the Braves (and their third sackers) through Mathews, Terry Pendleton, Bob Horner and Chipper Jones – right up to Austin Riley.
So, take that all into consideration as you ponder this prediction – still I think I can at lease a small case for my position. (However, most of the stats I will report here admittedly point to the Dodgers as taking this series.)
The Dodgers, who won 106 games to the Braves 88, also finished strong. LA went 50-21 from August 1 on, while the Braves went 44-28.
On offense, the Dodgers led the National League with 830 runs scored and 5.12 runs per game. Still, the Braves were not far behind at 790 runs and 4.91 runs per game (both third in the league). Both teams put up a .244 average and the Braves out-homered the Dodgers by two long balls (239-237). (Yes, I do acknowledge that the Braves played in a decidedly weaker division – but remember, I’m shooting a bit form the heart here.)
The Dodgers’ offense features five players who hit 20 or more home runs, even without the injured Max Muncy’s .249-36-94 stats. The leaders coming into the Championship Series include 2B Trea Turner (.338-10-28 in 52 games for LA); 3B Justin Turner (.278-27-87); and RF Mookie Betts (.264-23-58). There is also plenty of punch available from C Will Smith (25 home runs and 76 RBI); SS Corey Seager (.306, with 16 home runs in 95 games); OF A.J. Pollock (.297-21-69); and versatile Gavin Lux and Cody Bellinger (who seems ready to contribute after a difficult injury-dampened 2021 regular season). This lineup is strong and deep.
Freddie Freeman, steady power source. Photo by dougandme 
Just as the Dodgers are missing the bat of Muncy, the Braves will miss Ronald Acuna Jr., who was .283-24-52 in 82 games, as well as trade deadline pickup Jorge Soler (.269-14-33 in 55 games for Atlanta). (Soler is on COVID restriction.) Still, they pack plenty of punch, with perhaps the most powerful infield in MLB right now: 1B Freddie Freeman (.300-31-83); 2B Ozzie Albies (.259-30-106); 3B Austin Riley (.303-33-107); and SS Dansby Swanson (.248-27-88). The outfield will be some combination of Guillermo Heredia; Adam Duvall; Joc Pederson; and Eddie Rosario. While the Dodgers may be a bit deeper, I think the heart of the Braves’ lineup may be more explosive.
On the mound, it appears (at first examination) to be all Dodgers. Their 3.01 earned run average was the lowest in the majors . Even without Clayton Kershaw, they can put forth a starting trio of Walker Buehler (16-4, 2.47); Julio Urias (20-3. 2.96); and Max Scherzer (7-0, 1.98 for the Dodgers and 15-4, 2.46 overall). If a fourth starter is needed, Tony Gonsolin was 4-1, 3.23 (15 games / 13 starts). The bullpen features Kenley Jansen (38 saves, 2.22 ERA); Blake Treinen (1.99 ERA in 72 games, with seven saves); flame-throwing Brusdar Graterol (4.59 in 34 games); and Corey Knebel (2.45 in 27 games).
The Braves’ rotation looks solid: Charlie Morton (14-6, 3.34); Max Fried (14-7, 3.04); and Ian Anderson (9-5, 3.58). Will Smith (3.33 with 37 saves) will close, with support from Tyler Matzek (2.57 in 69 games); Luke Jackson (1.98 in 71 games); and A.J.Minter (3.78 in 61 games).
The Braves’ overall ERA of 3.89 does not compare well with the Dodgers 3.01 – but the Braves put up a 3.44 ERA after the All Star break, (Side note: the Dodgers’ ERA after the break was an even stingier 2.86).
So, given that the Dodgers’ lineup up and pitching staff both look deeper than the Braves, how can I pick Atlanta? A few factors. While the Braves were 2-4 versus the Dodgers during the regular season, the run totals were close (Dodges 27-Braves 23) and two of the Braves losses to the Dodgers were one-run games). Two, the Braves, who have home field advantage for the season, won two of three in Atlanta. Three, the Dodgers had a tougher time getting to this point then the Braves (more competitive division, a Wild Card game, a tougher Division Series) – that may have taken a toll. Four, the Braves, by virtue of wrapping up their Series with the Brewers early, have had more time to set up their pitching staff. Five, I’m not sure what the impact of the emotional high of getting past the Giants will have on the Dodgers going forward. Six, somehow I think the Braves’ starting mound trio will be able to hold down the Dodgers’ offense better than the Dodgers can rein in the Braves’ big four. (Okay, so that’s more emotion than evidence.) Seven, Joc Pederson’s two pinch-hit home runs in the ALDS seem to have the “feel” of destiny. Finally, remember, this prediction is at least partially from the heart.
Ultimately, I expect a good series (much more competitive than most expect) and anticipate the Game One winner – Fried versus Scherzer – will take the Series. I’ll go with the Braves – but logic seems to say otherwise. MVP? Freddie Freeman or Max Fried. Besides, I’ve been fifty-fifty going with the “favorites.” Maybe it’s time to pick an underdog.
Side Note: I have now lived in Minnesota for about five decades, so the Twins have my baseball fan’s heart. However, I still have a soft spot for the Braves (my NL team of preference) – and I’ve even come to forgive them for the move to Atlanta. (After all, Milwaukee did welcome them from Boston. )
Primary Resource: Baseball-Reference.com
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