As a prognosticator, I’m off to a bit of a slow start this post-season. One-for-two on the Wild Card games – and even the one I got right (Dodgers over Cardinals) did not go as I expected. In that one, I anticipated Max Scherzer’s arm to make the difference (although he gave up just one run, he didn’t make it out of the fifth inning) and did not expect the big hit to come off the bat of Chris Taylor. Still, anything can happen in a one-game play-in, so I’ll take my lumps and try again in the Division Series. So, here are my predictions. (Take them with a grain of salt – and maybe an accompanying shot of tequila.)
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Astros Over the White Sox
Photo by apardavila 
This looks to be a pretty hard-fought series. On the surface, the Astros appear to have an edge on offense, having scored 863 runs (most in MLB) to the White Sox’ 796 (fifth in the AL) and hit 221 home runs to the White Sox’ 190. However, you have to consider that the White Sox had to work their way through some injuries that had an impact on those numbers. CF Luis Robert (torn hip flexor) played in only 68 games – but still went .338-13-43 and LF Eloy Jimenez saw action in just 55 games (.249-10-37) – and this is a player who went .267-31-79 as a rookie in 2019. Both should be back in the lineup for the Division Series. The Sox do put a solid lineup on the field, led by MVP candidate 1B Jose Abreu (.261-30-117), CF Robert and LF Jimenez, SS Tim Anderson (.309-17-61, with 18 steals), catcher Yasmani Grandal (23 home runs and 62 RBI in 98 games). Also, as they juggled the lineup to compensate for injuries, the Sox had eight players reach double digits in home runs. One caution: Abreu is questionable for Game One.
The Astro bring more star power to the offense, with three players with 30 or more home runs: 2B Jose Altuve (.278-31-83); surprising RF Kyle Tucker (.294-30-92); DH Yordan Alvarez (.277-33-104). SS Carlos Correa added 26 home runs and 92 RBI to go with a .279 average. Add the Astros’ playoff experience and I believe they have the edge on offense.
On the mound, the Sox will look to Lance Lynn (11-6, 2.69); Lucas Giolito (11-9, 3.53); and Dylan Cease (13-7, 3.91); They also hope that Carlos Rodon (13-5, 2,37 … shoulder issues) is ready to have an impact in the post-season. Like the White Sox, the Astros had no pitcher with more than 13 wins (Lance McCullers (13-5, 3.16). Other potential starters include Luis Garcia (11-8, 3.30); Framber Valdez (11-5, 3.14); Jose Urquidy (8-3, 3.62); and Zack Greinke (11-6, 4,16).
The Astros’ bullpen is headed by closer Ryan Pressley (26 saves, 2.256 ERA, 11.4K / nine), with a supporting cast of Ryan Stanek, Kendall Graveman, Brooks Raley and Blake Taylor. Overall, I give an edge to the White Sox here. The White Sox bullpen is led by Liam Hendriks (38 saves, 2.54 ERA, 14.3K / 9), with the experienced Craig Kimbrel and Aaron Bummer in key innings. If starters falter early, Mike Kopech provides a quality long arm.
So, how do I separate these two squads? Well, as noted earlier, the Astros have an advantage in post-season experience, but maybe more important, the Astros made the fewest errors in the American League (71) to the White Sox’ 97 (fifth-worst in the AL). This Series may hinge on a few key plays and the Astros post-season experience, coupled with a tighter defense, should make the difference. The Astros won five of seven from the White Sox during the regular season – and I expect them to continue to hold an edge.
Rays over Red Sox
We should see some offensive fireworks in this one. Only the Astros topped the Rays 857 runs scored in 2021 (the Astros had 863) and the Red Sox were not far behind at 829. But then there is the pitching, where the Rays again proved their ability to manage pitching roles, putting up the AL’s lowest ERA at 3.67. The Red Sox were seventh at 4.26.
So, how do the Rays Manage to Win?
On the mound, the Rays had no pitcher start more than 25 games (nor win more than ten) – and eight hurlers start at least ten. They also got saves out of 14 pitchers (three with five or more). On offense, they used 158 different lineups during the season. (Joey Wendle and Brandon Lowe, for example, each started at three different defensive positions and in eight of the nine spots in the batting order.) Somehow, the Rays “manage “ to get the best out of their entire squad, which plays well now that we’re past the one-game Wild Card play-in (not a fan of that to tell you the truth – would prefer two-of three or just take the non-division winner with the best record.)
First, keep in mind, the Rays put up the AL’s lowest ERA (3.67) – despite just 14 starts from projected “ace” Tyler Glasnow (Tommy John surgery) and just five from Chris Archer (hip), who was expected to hold down a spot in the top half of the rotation. The Rays’ starter for the Game One will be Shane McClanahan (10-6, 3.43 in 25 starts). After that, your guess is as good (or better than) mine. Among the more likely candidates are veteran Michael Wacha (3-5, 5.05); Drew Rasmussen (4-0, 2.44 in 20 appearances / 10 starts); Shane Baz (2-0. 2.03 in three starts); and Ryan Yarborough (9-7, 5.11). Whomever gets the starts, you can expect the Rays to be working to create plenty of desired pitcher-batter matchups as the games progress. You also can bet their pitching strategy will be will be both unorthodox and (very likely) effective.
The Red Sox will counter in Game One with Eduardo Rodriguez (13-8, 4.74), who went 3-1, 3.19 in September. Other potential starters include Wild Card Game starter Nathan Eovaldi (11-9, 3.75); Chris Sale (5-1, 3.16) – who made his first start of the season August 14 (coming off Tommy John surgery last March) – and has gone at least six innings only once this season; and Nick Pivetta (9-8, 4.53). The Red Sox really need Sale to step up if they want to be in the Series.
Predicting bullpen strategies is futile. Over the past two months of the season, the Red Sox have been mixing things up (after Matt Barnes – 24 saves, 3.79 – lost the lock on the closer role. Relievers likely to play key roles include Barnes , Garrett Whitlock (1.96 ERA in 73 1/3 innings); Josh Taylor (3.40 in 61 appearances); and Adam Ottavino (11 saves). Hard to predict the Rays’ bullpen strategy, but expect important innings from Andrew Kittredge (1.88 ERA in 57 appearances),;Colin McHugh (who started seven games for the Rays and relieved in 30 games); and Pete Fairbanks (3.59 ERA and five saves in 47 games). Starters Josh Fleming and Luis Patino could also see some bullpen work. Looks like a toss-up in the pen, although the Rays staff may be more used to switching roles.
On offense, the Rays will look to 2B Brandon Lowe (.247-39-99); LF Austin Meadows (.234-27-106); rising star SS Wander Franco (.288-7-39 in 70 games); C Mike Zunino (.216-33-62); and OF Randy Arozarena (.274-20-69, who has proven he likes the big stage.) DH Nelson Cruz (.265-32-86 for the Twins and Rays) should be a steady and influential presence. The Red Sox counter with a lineup that will include SS Xander Bogaerts (.295-23-79); 3B Rafael Devers (.279-38-113); and RF Hunter Renfroe (.259-31-96). Overall, the Red Sox had six players with 20+ home runs and five with 75+ RBI. There’s some punch there.
The Rays won the season series between the two teams 11 games-to-eight, but there was only a two-run differential and six of the contests were decided by a single tally. It should be a good series; However, I just can’t go against the Rays who this season have “managed” to put up 100 wins in the AL’s toughest division.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Dodges Over Giants
Look at these stats.
Wins – Giants 107 (first in MLB); Dodgers 106 (second)
ERA – Dodgers 3.01 (first in MLB); Giants 3.24 (second)
Batting Avg. – Giants .249 (second in NL); Dodgers .244 (fifth in NL)
Home Runs: Giants 241 (first in NL); Dodgers 237 (third)
Runs scored : Dodgers 830 (first in NL); Giants 804 (second).
These were clearly the two best teams the NL in 2021. So, who wins the matchup in this long-standing rivalry? The Giants won the season series 10-9, but I expect the Dodgers (even without Clayton Kershaw) to prevail in this series. The charge will be led by Game One starter Walker Buehler (16-4, 2.247); Julio Urias (20-3, 2.96); and Max Scherzer (15-4, 2.46 & 7-0. 1.98 for LA). The Giants can counter with Game One starer Logan Webb (11-3, 3.03); Kevin Gausman (14-6, 2.81); Anthony DeSclafani (13-7, 3.17); and Alex Wood (10-4, 3.83). I give the Dodgers a slight edge here.
The bullpens match up pretty well, with the Giants looking to Jake McGee (31 saves, 2.72) and Tyler Rogers (13 saves, seven wins, 2.22) to lead the way and the Dodgers countering with Kenley Jansen (38 saves, 2.22) and Blake Treinen (seven saves, 1.99). The Dodger may be a little deeper in the pen. Their top four relievers (in term of appearances) all averaged 10+ strikeouts per nine innings; while the Giants top four ranged between 5.8 and 9.2 strikeouts per nine frames.
On offense, the Giants bring a powerful balance – ten players with at least ten home runs and seven with 15 or more (and six players with at least 50 RBI). The leaders would be SS Brandon Crawford, (.298-24-90) and C Buster Posey (.304-18-58). At least for this series, it appears the Giants will miss 1B Brandon Belt’s bat (.274-29-59) and glove. Still, this is an offense that looked to a lot of different heroes on their way to 106 wins, so they still pose a threat.
Like the Giants, the Dodgers will miss their first baseman (Matt Muncy (.249-36-94). They will be looking to LF AJ Pollock (.297-21-69); 3B Justin Turner (.278-27-87); SS Corey Seager (.306-16-57); 2B Trea Turner (.338 average); and C Will Smith (.258-25-76); and RF Mookie Betts (.64-23-58).
This series is gong to be a dogfight, but I think the Dodgers pitching will give them edge – and the Giants are also likely to miss Belt more than then the Dodgers miss Muncy, Still, a Giants’ win would not be a surprise.
Brewers Over Braves
Here ‘a surprise stat for you – Despite all the talk about Brewer pitching, and a starting staff that put up a 3.13 ERA, no Milwaukee pitcher won more than 11 games this season. Still, it’s the Brewers starting staff that led me to pick them over the Braves. The Brew Crew can send out Brandon Woodruff (9-10, 2.56); Corbin Burnes (11-5, 2.43); Freddy Peralta (10-5, 2.81); Adrian Houser (10-6, 3.22). And there’s also Eri Lauer (7-5, 3.19). Then, back them up with a flame throwing bullpen, headed by closer Josh Hader (34 saves, 1.23 ERA, 15.6K / 9) and an effective supporting staff that includes: Brent Suter (3.07); Brad Boxberger (3.34, 11.6K / 9); Devin Williams (2.50, 14.5K / 9).
The Braves are likely to counter with Charlie Morton (14-6, 3.34); Max Fried (14-7, 3.58) , Ian Anderson (9-5, 3.58); and Huascar Ynoa (4-6, 4.05). In the pen, you’ll find closer Will Smith (37 saves, 3.44 ERA, 11.5K / 9) and a supporting cast headed by Luke Jackson (1.98 ERA in 71 appearances), Tyler Matzek (2.57 in 69 appearances) and A. J. Minter (3.78 in 61 appearances). Overall, the Brewers hold an edge on the mound – particular when it comes to getting a big strikeout to snuff out a threat. (The Brewers led the NL in strikeouts with 1,618, the Braves were eighth at 1,417.)
The Braves hold a bit of an edge on offense, scoring 790 runs to the Brewers 738, but they will miss the bat of Ronald Acuna, Jr. who went down in mid-season with a torn ACL in his right knee. Acuna hit .283-24-52 in just 82 games. They added some pop with the acquisition of Jorge Soler (.269-14-33 in 55 games for the Braves) and Eddie Rosario (.271-7-16 in 33 Braves’ contests). Still, the load will be carried by 1B Freddie Freeman (.300-31-83); 2B Ozzie Albies (.259-30-106); 3B Austin Riley (.303-33-107). The bats that need to carry the Brewers include: 3B Luis Urias (.249—23-75); SS Wiley Adames (.285-20-58 in 99 games for the Brew Crew); and RF Avisail Garcia (.262-29-86). 2B Kolten Wong could provide some pop (.272-14-50 in 116 games). The Brewers could really use a solid series from LF Christian Yelich, who disappointed at .248-9-51 in 117 games this season. On offense, advantage Braves (even without Acuna).
Ultimately, I believe the Brewers will prevail behind solid starts from Burnes, Woodruff and Peralta – and a swing-and-miss bullpen.
Most Likely Upset
If I had to pick an upset, it would be in this series – with the Braves getting game-changing performances from Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies and Max Fried.
Primary Resource: Baseball-Reference.com
BASEBALL ROUNDTABLE ON THE TOP 100 BASEBALL BLOG LIST
Baseball Roundtable is on the Feedspot list of the Top 100 Baseball Blogs. To see the full list, click here.
I tweet baseball @DavidBBRT
Follow/Like Baseball Roundtable’s Facebook Page here. More baseball commentary; blog post notifications; PRIZES.
Member: Society for American Baseball Research (SABR); The Baseball Reliquary; The Negro Leagues Baseball Museum.
