Okay, the Red Sox have surprised me more than once – beating the Yankees and the Rays – so I probably shouldn’t pick against them again. However, I have to go with the Astros in the AL Championship Series.
Jose Altuve – Potential ALCS MVP.
Photo by apardavila 
The reasons? Pitching and defense – and, maybe, just a little bit of history. Clearly, these are two strong offensive clubs. During the regular season, the Astros averaged 5.33 runs per game (best in the AL), the Red Sox were close behind (fourth at 5.12). The Red Sox boast six players with 20+ home runs – and are led by 3B Rafael Devers (.279-38-113); DH JD Martinez (.286-28-99); RF Hunter Renfroe (.259-31-96); and SS Xander Bogaerts (.295-23-99). 1B Bobby Dalbec and CF Kiki Hernandez also have proven forces to be reckoned with. The Astros counter with an equally strong lineup – three players with 30 or more 2021 home runs (plus 26 long balls out of SS Carlos Correa). Their offense is led by Correa (.279-26-92); RF Kyle Tucker (.294-30-92); DH Yordan Alvarez (.277-33-104); and 2B Jose Altuve (.271-31-83). And remember, this is a lineup in which 2021 AL batting champion 1B Yuli Gurriel (.319) hits seventh. And let’s not forget LF Michael Brantley and 3B Alex Bregman. In short, both lineups are strong and deep. Call it a wash.
Chris Sale – Will he be ready?
Photo by Keith Allison
Now, how about pitching? On the season, the Astros’ 3.76 ERA was fourth in the AL, the Red Sox 4.26 seventh. Neither team can turn to an “ace” starter. The Red Sox had just two pitchers with at least ten wins (Nathan Eovaldi … 11-9, 3.75 and Eduardo Rodriguez … 13-8, 4.74). The likely third starter is Chris Sale, who was 5-1, 3. 16 (making his 2021 debut in mid-August after March 2020 Tommy John surgery). Sale, however, was touched by the Rays for five runs in one innings in his first 2021 post-season appearance. The Red Sox need him to be ready. If he is the Chris Sale of old (a true “ace”), he could be a difference maker. The Astros had four starters with at least ten wins and look to go with the trio of Lance McCullers, Jr. (13-5, 3.16); Framber Valdez (11-6, 3.14); and Luis Garcia (11-8, 3.80). On the season, Astros’ starters put up a 3.60 ERA, Red Sox starters 4.49). Edge: Houston.
The bullpens look evenly matched (Red Sox bullpen ERA at 3.99; Astros 4.06). Red Sox closer Matt Barnes had a 3.79 ERA with 24 saves); and he’ll be supported by Adam Ottavino (7-3, 11 saves, 4.21), Josh Taylor (3.40 in 61 games); and Garrett Whitlock 8-4, 1,96 in 46 games. Tanner Houck and Nick Pivetta could also come of the pen and play a key long relief role if a starter should falter (one of them could draw a start if Sale isn’t ready). The Astros’ pen will be led by closer Ryan Pressly (26 saves, 2.25 ERA), with a supporting cast that will include: Kendall Graveman (3.13 in 23 games for the Astros); Ryan Stanek (3.42 in 72 games); and Christian Javier (3.55 in 36 games).
Finally, there is the defense – potentially critical in a tight series. In 2021, the Astros made the fewest errors in the AL (69), the Red Sox the most at 108. Notable edge: Astros.
Digging little deeper, The Astros won the season series against the Red Sox five games to two and outscored them 42-25.
Then again, the Red Sox come in “hot” on offense. In the Division Series, the Red Sox hit .341, with 56 hits, nine home runs and 26 runs against the Rays’ lauded pitching staff. The Astros hit “just” .288” with “only” 40 hits and four home runs against the White Sox – but, they actually scored more runs in their four games set then the Red Sox did in theirs (31-26). Another stat that caught my eye was that the Astros scored 18 two-out runs against the White Sox to eight for the Red Sox against the Rays.
So, there it is. I’m once again going against the Red Sox, but I expect a tough series with plenty of offense. Astros in six. Potential MVP? I like Jose Altuve or Kyle Tucker.
Primary Resource: Baseball-Reference.com
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