Well, the Wild Card round is over, and Baseball Roundtable was one-for-two on two on prediction – whiffed on the Rockies, got the fat part of the bat on the Yankees. Time now to look at the Division Series. Again, you really can’t take these to the bank, but you may at least find these observation interesting.
NATIONAL LEAGUE DIVISION SERIES
Brewers over the Rockies
Christian Yelich … driving the Brewers’ success.
Photo by hueytaxi 
These are two potent offenses – playing in a couple of hitters’ parks. The Brewers come in led by RF Christian Yelich (.326-36-110 and 22 steals); 1B Jesus Aguilar (.274-35-108); and CF Lorenzo Cain (.308, with ten home runs, 90 runs scored and 22 steals). The Rockies counter with 3B Nolan Arenado (.297-38-100, with 104 runs); SS Trevor Story (.291-37-108, with 22 steals); and Charlie Blackmon (.291-29-70 and 119 runs).
The Rockies may be a bit road-weary, having played three of the past four day in three different time zones – including 13 grueling innings versus the Cubs on Tuesday. The Brewers last played in Monday’s Tiebreaker against the Cub.
Pitching-wise, the Rox’ top two starters are Kyle Freeland 17-7, 2.85 and German Marquez (14-11, 3.77) – and each will get just one start in the NLDS. Young (23-year-old) righty Antonio Senzatela (6-6, 4.38) will get the first-game start for Colorado; likely to be followed by southpaw Tyler Anderson (7-9, 4.55) – with Freeland and Marquez slated for Games Four and Five in Colorado. The Brewers are slated to go with an “opener” for the Division Series opener – and, for this old schooler, that a little scary. Jhoulys Chacin (15-8, 3.50), Wade Miley (5-2, 2.57) and Gio Gonzalez (7-11, 4.57) are likely starters going forward. Starting pitching looks to be pretty much a “wash.”
Gio Gonzalez could be a difference maker. He was 7-11, 4.57 with the Nationals, but 3-0, 2.13 in five starts after coming over to the Brew Crew.
On the Rockies’ side of the ledger, you can’t overlook 24-year-old, left-handed swinging outfielder David Dahl, who went .287-9-27 in 24 September contests and .273-16-48 in 77 games on the season.
I’d give the Brewers’ bullpen an edge in depth (Corey Knebel, Josh Hader, Jeremy Jeffress and Joakim Soria versus Wade Davis, Adam Ottavino, Seunghwan Oh and Scott Oberg) – although both pens bring some quality arms.
Ultimately, BBRT see the Brewers a little deeper on offense (Ryan Braun/Travis Shaw) and in the pen. Couple that with the fact that the Rockies had the roughest path (travel and competition-wise) to this round and BBRT gives the edge to the Brewers. Plus, I just don’t think the red-hot Christian Yelich will let them lose this series. Lots of scoring, but the Brewers prevail.
Dodgers over Braves
Hyun-Jin RyuPhoto by Keith Allison
The Dodgers out-homered the Braves by 60 and outscored them by 45 – and still the difference-maker in this matchup is likely to be pitching. The Dodgers’ rotation of Clayton Kershaw (9-5, 2.73); Rich Hill (11-5, 3.66); Walker Buehler (8-5, 2.62); and Hyun-Jin Ryu (7-3, 1.97) was part of the reason LA had the NL’s lowest team ERA. The Braves counter with Mike Foltynewicz (13-10, 2.85); Julio Teheran (9-9, 3.94); Sean Newcomb (12-9, 3.90); and Anibel Sanchez (7-6, 2.83) – but it’s clearly edge Dodgers. For the Braves to have a chance, Foltynewicz has to be on top of his game (and win a pair of starts). Note: Hyun-Jin Ryu will start Game One for LA.
Both bullpens can be effective, but Dodger’ closer Kenley Jansen (38 saves, 3.01 earned run average) has been a bit homer-prone (13 in 71 2/3 innings this season). Other key bullpen arms for LA include: transitioned starter Kenta Maeda, Alex Wood and Pedro Baez. The Braves look to Arodys Vizcaino to close out games – with a supporting cast that includes A.J. Minter, Jonny Vebters and Brad Bach.
Dodgers’ reliever Pedro Baez is one to watch in this series. From August 13 to the season’s end, he gave up just one earned run in 19 appearances (19 1/3 IP) for a 0.47 ERA
The line-up sees the Braves with a nice mix of veterans (1B Freddie Freeman at .309-23-98 and OF Nick Markakis at .297-14-93) and talented youngsters (20-year-old 2B Ozzie Albies at .261-24-72, 14 steals; 20-year-old Ronald Acuna Jr. at .293-26-64; and 24-year-old 3B Johan Camargo at .272-19-76).
A key to this series may be how the Braves’ youngsters – Ronald Acuna, Jr., Ozzie Albies and Johan Camargo handle the post-season pressure.
The Dodgers bring a more veteran crew with eight players launching 20+home runs each and such “names” as SS Manny Machado (.297-37-107 for the Orioles and Dodgers), Matt Kemp (.291-21-85), CF Cody Bellinger (.260-25-76) and the mercurial RF Yasiel Puig (.267-23-63, with 15 steals.
Keep an eye on the Dodgers’ 1B Matt Muncy, who had a career year at .263-35-79.
The Braves made the post-season perhaps a year earlier than expected and – coming up against the Dodgers – BBRT see it as a “wait until next year” finish.
AMERICAN LEAGUE DIVISION SERIES
Astros over Indians
Justin Verlander … 290K. Photo by Keith Allison
Probably the toughest division Series to call. Who would have thought that the first team in MLB history to have four 200-strikeout pitchers in the same season (Indians’ Corey Kluber … 20-7, 2.89, 222K; Mike Clevinger … 13-8. 3.02, 207K; Carlos Cararasco … 17-10, 3.38, 231K; and Trevor Bauer … 12-6, 2.21, 22K ) could be at a disadvantage in starting pitching? But the Astros offer up Justin Verlander (16-9, 3.07, 290K); Gerrit Cole (15-5, 2.88, 276K); Dallas Keuchel, 12-11, 3.74); and Charles Morton (15-3, 3.13, 201K). That Astros’ quartet helped Houston notch MLB’s lowest starting staff ERA (3.16) and highest strikeouts per nine innings (10.37).
In the bullpen, both teams throw out some quality arms. Andrew Miller, Cody Allen, Brad Hand and Oliver Perez for Cleveland and Roberto Osuna Hector Rondon, and Ryan Pressly for the Astros. On the season, the Astros had a 3.03 bullpen ERA, the Indians’ 4.60. Trevor Bauer (12-6, 2.21 with 221 strikeouts in 175 1/3 innings will be in the bullpen for (at least the start of) this Series. He could prove an interesting weapon.
The Indians went 91-71 and ran away with the AL Central. However, they ran up a 49-27 record against the weak Central – and were two games under .500 (42-44) against everyone else.
Offensively, it’s a good match up. The Indians, led by SS Francisco Lindor (.277-38-92, with 25 steals) and 3B Jose Ramirez (.270-39-195, 34 steals) put up 818 runs and hit 216 round trippers. The Astros had a more balanced offense and finished with 797 runs and 227 homers. Among the key Houston contributors were 2B Jose Altuve (.316-13-61, 17 steals); 3B Alex Bergman (.281-31-103, 10 steals); and 1B Yuli Gurriel (.282-13-85).
Game One Will Set the Tone
The first game of this Series will feature two former Cy Young Award winners (and 2018 CYA candidates) facing off. For the Indians, it will be Corey Kluber and for the Astros it will be Justin Verlander. Given the matchups we are likely to see, getting that first-game win may be critical.
Ultimately, BBRT thinks the Astros’ edge in pitching – and more balanced offense – will carry the day.
Red Sox over Yankees
Chris Sale … BoSox key. Photo by Keith Allison
Will good pitchings top good hitting? BBRT is betting on it. The Yankees blasted an MLB-record 267 home run this year – and I’m still betting Boston veterans Chris Sale (12-4, 2.11) and David Price (16-7, 3.58) can lead Boston to a win in this Series. Additional starts will come from among Rick Porcello (17-7, 4.28); Nathan Eovaldi (6-7, 3.81); and Eduardo Rodriguez (13-5, 3.82). The Yankees counter with Luis Severino (19-8, 3.39); Masahiro Tanaka (12-6, 3.75); J.A. Happ (7-0, 2.69 with the Bombers); and possibly C.C. Sabathia (9-7, 3.64).
A Couple of Potential Difference Makers
Two trade-deadline pickups could be difference makers for the Yankees. Starter J.A. Happ, who came over from Toronto, was 17-6, 3.65 on the season – but 7-0, 2.69 for the Yankees. (He will likely get two starts if needed.) 1B Luke Voit, acquired from the Cardinals (he played just eight 2018 games for the Redbirds), was .333-14-33 in 39 games for the Yankees.
The Yankees have an edge in the pen (a 3.38 bullpen ERA to the Red Sox’ 3.72 and 11.4 strikeouts per nine relief innings to the Red Sox’ 9.62). Among the keys to the Yanks’ pen are Aroldis Chapman, Dellin Betances and Zach Britton, while the Red Sox look to Craig Kimbrel, Matt Barnes and Joe Kelly.
The Yankees had one the most powerful and most balanced attacks in baseball, getting at least 20 home runs from each of the slots (1-9) in the lineup.
On offense, the Yankees have a lot of balance with some key contributors being DH Giancarlo Stanton (.266-38-100); 1B Luke Voit (.33-14-33 in 39 games with New York); and RF Aaron Judge (.278-27-67 in 112 games). The Red Sox counter with the likes of DH J.D. Martinez (.330-43-139); RF Mookie Betts (.346-32-80); and SS Xander Bogaerts (.288-23-103).
Red Sox Difference Makers
A couple of veteran names that don’t get called out often enough (they are competing with Mookie Betts and J.D.martinez for the Red Sox spotlight) could make a difference in this Series. If either 1B Mitch Moreland (.245-15-68) or 2B Ian Kinsler (.240-14-48, with 16 steals) gets hot, they could really lengthen the Red Sox’ offense.
In reality, despite all those Yankee homers, there two offenses are pretty even. The Red Sox put up an MLB-best 876 runs in 2018; the Yankees were second at 851. Ultimately, I am going with pitching and betting that Sale and Price and carry the day. Still, given the long-standing rivalry and the make-up of these two squads, this should be an explosive and competitive series.
The Story Will be…
The story of this series will be written by Chris Sale in Game One. He has to shut down the Yankees’ offense in Fenway. If not, it could prove a long and disappointing Series for Boston fans – and a bad prediction by BBRT.
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I’ll have more on the NLCS as the next post-season round approaches, but here’s BBRT’s look forward.
NLCS
Dodgers over Brewers … The Dodgers just have too much offense and pitching for the Brewers to handle.
ALCS
Astros over Red Sox … The Astros may be the best – and most balanced – team (offensively and on the mound) in baseball.
World Series – Astros over Dodgers.
Wow! A great one. However, BBRT see the Astros pitching shutting down the Dodgers and World Series MVP is likely to be Verlander or Altuve.
I tweet Baseball @DavidBBRT.
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Member: Society for American Baseball Research; The Baseball Reliquary; The Negro Leagues Baseball Museum.
