Okay, so Opening Day won’t be quite the same. At least, it’s on the way.
It’s getting close to Opening Day and it’s time for Baseball Roundtable to look ahead (and make predictions) for the 2021 season. We’ll start with American League won-loss predictions, move on to a look at some of the players (on each AL team) that BBRT will be watching in the coming months, and wrap up with BBRT favorites for some key junior circuit awards. So, let’s get started.
Note: For the National League predictions and Watch List, click here.
AMERICAN LEAGUE EAST
Yankees … 98-61
Blue Jays … 87-75 (Wild Card)
Rays … 85-77
Red Sox … 81-81
Orioles … 64-98
The Yankees have a deep and powerful lineup (they could have seven players with 25+ home runs), with plenty of quality replacements when needed. Plus, they have a solid rotation (particularly after adding Corey Kluber and Jameson Taillon) and a plus bullpen. The Bronx Bombers may get a stretch-run boost with the return of Luis Severino and Zack Britton. They should top the AL East.
Now, smart money would put the Rays (last year’s AL World Series’ representative) in – at least – the second place/wild card spot. But I’m going out on a limb and picking the Blue Jays for second – based on an exciting young lineup, augmented by veteran acquisitions George Springer and Marcus Semien. How their pitching holds up will tell the tale. It is hard to go against the Rays who, year-after-year, seem to be able to translate defense, a solid (if, at times, unconventional) pitching strategy and equally strategic lineups into a wining record. Still, I think the loss of Blake Snell and Charlie Morton at the top of the rotation may cost the Rays a spot in the standings. The Red Sox should be more competitive than a year ago – particularly if Chris Sale is back in form – but I don’t see them passing any of the top three. The Orioles seem to be in the early innings of a rebuilding project.
AMERICAN LEAGUE CENTRAL
Twins … 91-72
White Sox … 87-75 (Wild Card)
Indians … 84-78
Royals … 70-92
Tigers … 67-95
Maybe it’s because they are my “home team,” but I’m expecting the Twins to repeat as AL Central champs. However, it won’t be easy as the White Sox are coming on strong. The Twins still have one of the AL’s most powerful lineups and should be improved on defense with newcomer (four-time Gold Glover) Andrelton Simmons now at shortstop, Josh Donaldson back at third base and Jorge Polanco moving to second (and let’s not forget Gold Glover Byron Buxton in center). The rotation will be again headed by Kenta Maeda and Jose Berrios – and looks to include Michael Pineda, J.A. Happ and Randy Dobnak. (or Matt Shoemaker). A revamped bullpen looks solid.
Coming on fast are the White Sox with a deep batting order; a rotation headed by Lucas Giolito, Lance Lynn and Dallas Keuchel; and a bullpen featuring new (and elite) closer Liam Hendriks. It’s going to be a dogfight at the top of the Central Division, but I expect the Twins experience to give them a slight edge. Carlos Carrasco, Francisco Lindor and Carlos Santana are gone from the Indians and, despite a solid bullpen and a rotation headed by Shane Bieber, Zach Plesac and the emerging Triston McKenzie and the addition of slugger Eddie Rosario, the Indians are likely to finish behind both the Twins and White Sox. The Royals look to be improved with a lineup that includes professorial hitter Whitt Merrifield, slugger Jorge Soler and newcomer Carlos Santana. They are also looking for a rebound from OF Andrew Benintendi (acquired via an off-season trade). The Tigers will have to wait from some of their young pitching prospects – Casey Mize, Tarik Skubal, Matt Manning and Franklin Perez to develop before moving up in the standings. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Mize and Skubal break camp with the Tigres.
AMERICAN LEAGUE WEST
Astros … 91-71
A’s … 86-76
Angels … 84-78
Mariners … 69-83
Rangers … 65-97
The Astros will miss George Springer (now with the Blue Jays) and Justin Verlander (Tommy John surgery), but still seem to have enough to win the West. The lineup has some star power with Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman and Carlos Correa – not to mention Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez. Jake Odorizzi is a nice addition to a rotation that also offers Zack Greinke, Cristian Javier, Framber Valdez, Lance McCullers and Jose Urquidy. Ryan Pressley heads a bullpen that will need to prove itself over the long season. It looks like another division title for Houston, but they’ll have to hold off the pesky A’s.
Losing closer Liam Hendriks and shortstop Marcus Semien put a dent in the A’s playoff hopes, but there is still reason to expect them to be in contention. There is potential in the rotation (Mike Fiers, Scott Manaea, Frankie Montas, Jesus Luzardo, Chris Bassitt, A.J. Puk), as well as some power in the lineup (led by the double Matts – Olson and Chapman – who are also both superior defenders. Still, there are questions in the bullpen and the lineup could use a bit more punch. The Angels should be improved, but there are still too many question in the starting rotation (which has had the second worse ERA in MLB in each of the past two seasons). The Mariners are on the cusp of making some noise, and are anxiously awaiting the arrive of such prospects as OFs Jarred Kelenic and Taylor Trammel, RHP Logan Gilbert and RHP Emerson Hancock. In the meantime, enjoy the performance of southpaw Marco Gonzalez, 3B Kyle Seager and CF Kyle Lewis. Finally, the Rangers appear to be in rebuilding mode, so we’re likely to see a handful of young players getting a chance to develop on the big league diamonds.
— BBRT 2021 AL Watch List —
Now, some players BBRT will be watching on each team.
Baltimore Orioles – Trey Mancini, Ryan Mountcastle
Trey Mancini – Ready to lead Orioles’ offense. Photo by docjeffhyde 
Trey Mancini missed the 2020 season missed the 2020 season due to a bout with colon cancer. His 2021 comeback is one of those “feel good” stories you just have to watch play out. In 2019, Mancini (DH/1B/OF) went .291-35-97. BBRT will also follow the development of 24-year-old 1B/OF Ryan Mountcastle. As a rookie in 2020, Mountcastle went .333-5-23 in 35 games. This followed a .312-25-83 2019 season at Triple A. He looks ready to contributed to an Orioles’ offense and (since he only appeared in 35 games last season) should be in the running for Rookie of the Year.
Why You Need to Stay and Watch the Whole Game
On August 1, 2020 – thanks to MLB’s short-season, extra-inning rules – the Rays opened the top of the tenth inning of a 4-4 game against the Orioles with Ji-Man Choi on second base. The first batter, Yoshi Tsutsugo flied out to Cedric Mullins in LF. Choi tried to advance to third, but was thrown out. It was the first time in MLB history that the leadoff hitter in an inning hit into a double play.
Boston Red Sox – Eduardo Rodriguez, Chris Sale
Bobby Dalbec – Adding power in Boston.
Southpaw starter Eduardo Rodriguez went 19-6, 3.81 in 2019 and then lost the 2020 season to COVID-related heart issues (myocarditis). The Red Sox absolutely need Rodriguez to bounce back if they are to finish above .500. BBRT will also be watching to see when Chris Sale (Tommy John surgery) returns to the mound (expected in late June or July). BBRT is also interested in the development of Red Sox’ 25-tear-old 1B Bobby Dalbec, who hit eight home runs in just 23 games a year ago – and is having a strong spring (to date). In 2019, Dalbec his 27 round trippers in 135 games at Double-A and Triple-A. If he can cut down on whiffs, he can add notable power to the BoSox lineup.
The Red Sox gave up 351 runs in 2020, the most in the American League.
Chicago White Sox – Nick Madrigal, Tim Anderson
Nick Madrigal – Young table setter in Chicago.
Lots of big boppers to watch in the White Sox lineup (Jose Abreu, Eloy Jimenez, Luis Robert), but BBRT is going to be watching a couple of players more suited to be table setters. 2B Nick Madrigal (just 24-years-old this season), hit .340 as a rookie in 2020 – after hitting .311, with 35 steals in three minor-league stops (120 games) in 2019. He had shoulder surgery in the off season (October), and BBRT will be looking to see how he bounces back. I’ll Also be watching SS Tim Anderson, the 2019 AL batting champ (.335, with 18 long balls and 17 steals), who hit .322-10-21, with five steals in 49 games a year ago. One thing of interest with Anderson will be to monitor his splits against lefties and righties. Over his five MLB seasons, he has hit .323 against lefties and .265 against right-handers – and, last season, that was even more pronounced (.449 against lefties and .283 versus righties). No matter, these two middle infielders should spend a lot of time creating problems for opponents.
In 2020. the White Sox led the American League in home runs with 96. American League MVP Jose Abreu led the way on the ChiSox with 19, followed by Eloy Jimenez with 14. Abreu also led the league in hits (76), RBI (60) and total bases (148).
Cleveland Indians – Shane Bieber, Eddie Rosario
Shane Bieber – On everyone’s CYA watch.
How can you not get excited about watching Shane Bieber, last year’s AL Cy Young Award winner, who led all of MLB in wins (8), strikeouts (122 in 77 1/3 innings) and ERA (1.63)? In his three MLB seasons, Bieber. Just 25-year-old, is 34-14, 3.32 with 499 whiffs in 406 1/3 innings pitched – and he seem to be getting better. He’s on everyone ‘s Cy Young watch list. With Francisco Lindor (trade) and Carlos Santana (free agency) gone, the Indians will be looking for some new sources of offense. Being a Twins fan, I’ll be watching former Twin Eddie Rosario, who has shown 30-home run/100-RBI power in the past.
The Indians recorded the American League’s lowest team ERA in 2020 at 3.29.
Detroit Tigers – Miguel Cabrera, Casey Mize
Miguel Cabrera – Adding to HOF credentials. Photo by Kevin.Ward
Number one on my Tigers’ watch list is DH Miguel Cabrera – entering his 19th season just 134 hits shy of 3,000, 13 home runs short of 500. It will fun to watch the four-time batting champion, two-time Most Valuable Player and 11-time All Star add these landmarks to his Hall of Fame credentials. On the other end of the spectrum, I’ll be watching the 2018 MLB Draft first overall pick – RHP Casey Mize. A star at Auburn, Mize put up a 2.74 ERA with 120 strikeouts (and just 26 walks) in two minor-league seasons (2018-19). He got a brief, not so impressive, look-see in 2020 – going 0-3, 6.99 for the Tigers. Still, Mize has a devastating splitter, mid-90s fastball, slider and curve. If he can bring the command he exhibited in college and the minor leagues to the Detroit mound, he should be a mainstay in the Tigers’ rotation. He may not start the season in Detroit, but they need pitching, so you can expect to see him in the Motor City sooner rather than later.
From 2009-2016, Miguel Cabrera averaged .330, never hitting under .313 in a season.
Houston Astros – Kyle Tucker, Jake Odorizzi, Jose Altuve
Kyle Tucker – Adding to the Astros’ offense. Photo by Ken Lund
The Astros will open the season without ace starter Justin Verlander (Tommy John surgery), a well as without a big run-producing bat (George Springer, free agency). BBRT will be watching a couple of players the Astros hope will take up some of the slack. OF Kyle Tucker (24-years-old) may be ready to blossom. In 58 2020 games for Houston, Tucker hit .268, with nine home runs and 42 RBI, while also stealing eight bases and leading MLB with six triples. Oh, and he was also a Gold Glove finalist. It would be no surprise to see Tucker turn in a 25-homer, 80-RBI, 25-steal campaign. Free-agent Jake Odorizzi was signed to bolster the rotation. A 15-game winner with Twins in 2019, Odorizzi needs to bounce back from an injury-interrupted 2020 season, when he pitched only 13 2/2 innings. For a little extra (watching credit), take a look at three-time batting champion Jose Altuve, who hit just .219-5-18 in 48 games last season. Those are not Altuve-like numbers (.311 career average), and the Astros are looking for a rebound from the 31-year-old in both the average and power departments. Can’t wait to see what the mighty-mite has in the tank.
Ten pitchers made their major-league debuts with the Astros in 2020.
Kansas City Royals – Whit Merrifield
Whit Merrifield – Professional baseman. Photo by Minda Haas Kuhlmann
Whit Merrifield is a professional hitter, an accomplished base runner and a versatile defender – as well as player who stays on the field. He is, for BBRT, an “0ld-school” kind of guy, well worth watching day-in and day-out. Consider, over the past three seasons, Merrifield has played in 380 of the Royals 384 gamers. Over that time, he has averaged .300 (486 hits) and stolen 77 bases – while leading the AL in hits twice and triples and steals once each. He’s also taken the field at second base, first base and all three outfield positions.
The Royals turned 62 double plays in 2020, tops in the American League.
Los Angeles Angels – Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani
Shohei – Something to watch on the mound and at the plate. Photo by shinya
How can you not watch three-time AL MVP Mike Trout, who’s never finished lower than fifth in the MVP voting in his ten MLB seasons? Don’t expect any surprises – just a solid .300, 30-home run, 90 RBI campaign (or even a little better). BBRT also will be watching 2018 AL Rookie of the Year Shohie Ohtani, who looks to be both in the starting rotation and seeing regular duty at DH. You may recall, in his rookie season, Ohtani hit .285 with 22 home runs in 104 games AND went 4-2, 3.31 in ten starts on the mound. Ohtani is more than one year removed from Tommy John surgery and seems fully recovered from last year’s elbow/forearm strain. I’ll be watching to see how far he can take this two-way approach (20 homer runs/10 mound victories?).
Angels’ Pitching Woes
You might want to monitor the entire Angels’ rotation, which turned din MLB’s second-worst earned run average in 2020 (5.52) – and that wasn’t a short-season fluke. They also put up MLB’s second-worst ERA in 2019 (5.64, only the Rockies starters were worse). They are hoping for a boost from Shohei Ohtani’s return to the mound, as well as from newcomer (free-agent) Jose Quintana (3.73 career ERA, over 254 appearances).
Minnesota Twins – Nelson Cruz, Byron Buxton, Alex Kiriloff
Nelson Cruz – Betting his age-41 seasons will be a thing of beauty. Photo by andywitchger
In 2019, Twins’ DH Nelson Cruz (who turned forty on July 1) went .303-16-33 in 53 games. He recorded the American League’s seventh-highest average, fifth-most home runs, third-highest on-base percentage and fifth-highest slugging percentage. BBRT will be watching to see what he can do in his age 41 season,
Others to watch in Minnesota include center fielder Byron Buxton – a multi-tool player whose all-out style of play has made him injury prone (he has played in at least 100 games in only one of six MLB seasons). Last season, Buxton hit 13 home runs in just 39 games. Buxton is a Gold Glove outfielder, who – if he stays in the lineup – could easily put up 25 home runs and 25 steals. The fact is, when he is on the field, he changes the game. Let’s see if he can stay off the IL. I’ll also be watching 23-year-old rookie OF Alex Kiriloff. Kiriloff has a .317 average, with 36 home runs over three minor-league seasons (279 games) and the Twins would like him to replace departed outfielder Eddie Rosario (.257-13-42 in 2020 and .276-32-109 in 2019). A .280-25-75 campaign from Kiriloff would do the trick.
The Twins have lost a record 18 consecutive post-season games.
New York Yankees – Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Luis Severino
Giancarlo Stant0n – big bat (when he’s) in the Yankee lineup. Photo by IDSportsPhoto
Plenty to watch in the Yankee lineup (they could run seven 25+ home run hitters out there). So, BBRT will be watching to see who is NOT in the lineup. That includes: RF slugger Aaron Judge – who has played in just 63 percent of the Yankees’ games over the past three years – and DH Giancarlo Stanton, who has appeared in just 52 percent of the Bomber’s games over that time. (Consider, Judge – as a rookie – hit 52 home runs in 2017. He hasn’t hit more than 27 in a season since. And Stanton, who hit 59 home runs as a Marlin in 2017 and 38 as a Yankee in 2018, has hit seven homers, while playing in just 41 games, over the past two seasons.) BBRT will also be watching to see when potential staff ace Luis Severino (a 19-game winner in 2019) returns from Tommy John surgery.
In 2020, the Yankees led the American League in run scored (315), walks (251) and on-base percentage (.342)
Oakland A’s – Trevor Rosenthal, Jake Diekman, Matt Olson, Matt Chapman
Matt Olson – Bringing leather and lumber to the A’s. Photo by mwlguide
Over the past two seasons, Liam Hendriks has owned the ninth inning for the Oakland A’s. He appeared in 99 games, won seven (five losses), saved 39, put up a minuscule 1.79 ERA and fanned 161 batters in 110 1/3 innings. Hendriks is now going to come in from the pen for the White Sox (free agency) and the scramble is on to replace him at closer. BBRT will be watching to see who moves into the spot. Candidates seem to be free-agent signee Trevor Rosenthal (132 career saves/11 saves and a 1.90 ERA in 2020’s short season) and Jake Diekman (a 0.42 ERA in 21 appearances last season). Always worth watching are the A’s two Matts – Olson and Chapman – a pair of Gold Glover corner infielders (Olson 1B, Chapman 3B), both proven capable of 30+ homer power (and keys to the A’s offense and defense).
Over the past three seasons Matt Olson and Matt Chapman have won four Gold Gloves and hit 149 home runs.
Seattle Mariners – Marco Gonzales, Rafael Montero
Marco Gonzales – Mariners’; ace. Photo by Minda Haas Kuhlmann
Marco Gonzales will again be the ace of the Mariners’ staff. (He was 7-2, 3.10 in 2020). Gonzales is not overpowering (64 strikeouts in 69 2/3 innings), but he gets the job done (59 hits and just seven walks). He’s the guy you want on the mound if you’re headed to a Mariners’ game. BBRT will also be watching new closer Rafael Montero (trade with Rangers) to see if he’s the real deal. The 30-year-old Montero is a converted starter, who didn’t have a save in his first five MLB seasons and then saved eight games in eight opportunities in 2020. He’s got a high-90s fastball, a sinker and a change up (his 4.08 Era in 2020 is a bit concerning). The closer role was a bit of a revolving door for the Mariners last season. If Montero grabs the role full-time it will help stabilize the Mariners’ bullpen.
The Mariners led the American League in stolen bases last season with 50 and had five players with five or more steals.
Tampa Bay Rays – Randy Arozarena, Rays’ Free-Agent Starters
Randy Arozarena – Post-seasons hero.
Rays’ rookie OF Randy Arozarena set the post-season on fire – hitting .376, with ten home runs and 14 RBI in 29 games, setting a record for the most home runs in a single year’s post season. This performance, contrary to some observers, did not come out of nowhere. Arozarena hit .281-7-11 in 23 games for the Diamondbacks in the regular season and .300 (6-for-20) in 19 games for the Cardinals in 2019. (He was traded from the Cardinals to the Rays in January of 2020.) The 2020 post-season, in fact, was not even Arozarena’s first post-season experience. He got in five post-season games for the Cardinals. Further, Arozarena posted a .292 average in three minor-league seasons, including a .344-15-53 line in 92 (AA-AAA) games in 2019. He looks like the real deal – and well worth watching.
BBRT will also be keeping an eye on Tampa Bay free-agent signees Rich Hill, Chris Archer, Collin McHugh and Michael Wacha. The Rays, who lost their two top starting pitchers (Blake Snell by trade, Charlie Morton to free agency) are once again rebuilding their pitching staff and it will be interesting to see how the rotation fleshes out (which may determine if the Rays or Blue Jays make it to the playoffs).
On September 11, 2020, the Rays starting lineup against the Red Sox was: Austin Meadows, LF; Joey Wendle, SS; Brandon Lowe, 2B; Ji-Man Choi, 1B; Kevin Kiermaier, CF; Yoshi Tsutsugo, 3B; Nate Lowe, DH; Brett Phillips, RF; Michael Perez, C. Uniquely, they were all left-handed hitters. Oh, and the Rays’ starting pitcher was southpaw Blake Snell. Righty Andrew Triggs started for the BoSox and gave way (after one scoreless inning) to left-hander Matt Hall. Hall surrendered four runs in 2 1/3 innings and took the loss.
Texas Rangers – Joey Gallo
Joey Gallo – Texas-sized power. Photo by mikelachance816
Will Joey Gallo lead the league in home runs, strikeouts or both? The a question is worth considering – and watching for the answer to. In the two full seasons, Gallo has played for the Rangers (at least 140 games), he hit .208, with 81 home runs AND 403 strikeouts. I’d love to see Gallo make more contact (that could lead to a 50-HR season). Notably, the free-swinging Gallo has added another reason to put him on you watch list. In 2020 the Ranger RF was a Gold Glover.
The Rangers’ 224 runs scored in 2020 were the fewest in the American League. They also had the leagues’s fewest hits (420), lowest batting average (.217) and fewest total bases (704).
Toronto Blue Jays – George Springer, Kirby Yates
Geroge Springer – Big Bat/Veteran presence. Photo by Stabbur’s Master
The Blue Jay have lots of emerging young players who deserve a look, many with familiar last names – SS Bo Bichette, 1B Vlad Guerrero, Jr., 3B Cavan Biggio. BBRT, however, will be keeping an eye on a couple of newcomers. The Jays made a big splash in the free-agent pool, led by the six-year, $150 million contract they gave to former Astro George Springer. Springer brings a proven bat to the middle of the Blue Jays’ lineup. He averaged .270-35-93 for each 162 games over a seven season MLB career – and, in 2019, went .293-39-96. He also brings a veteran presence to this young squad – and the Blue Jays hope he can lead them to the post-season. The Blue Jays also brought in closer Kirby Yates (free agency). In 2019, Yates led the NL in saves (as a Padre) with 41, along with a 1,19 ERA and 101 strikeouts in 60 2/3 innings. Bone chips in his elbow (requiring surgery) limited Yates to six appearance in 2020. The Blue Jays expect him to come back with a vengeance in 2012 – and so does BBRT.
Other Blue jays to put on your “bird watching” list include outfielder Teoscar Hernandez, who surprised in 2019 with a .289-16-34 season (50 games). Going into the season, Hernandez has a .237 average in 327 MLB games over four seasons. The Blue Jays would like to see the 2019 version. Also, keep an eye on top pitching prospect Nate Pearson with his triple-digit fastball and wicked 90-mph+ slider. His emergence could bolster the Jay’s rotation.
In 2020, the Blue Jays had MLB youngest roster or position players and fifth-oldest roster of pitchers.
— MAJOR AWARDS —
Finally, predictions on BBRT favorites for American League Awards.
Al MVP: 1. D.J. LeMahieu; 2) Matt Chapman, A’s; 3) Aaron Judge, Yankees; 4) Alex Bregman, Astros; 4) George Springer, Blue Jays
AL Cy Young: 1) Gerrit Cole, Yankees; 2) Shane Bieber, Indians; 3) Lucas Giolito, White Sox; 4) Tyler Glasnow, Rays
AL Rookie of the Year; Randy Arozarena, Rays; Casey Mize, Tigers; Alex Kiriloff, Twins; 4) Wander Franco, Rays
Primary Resources: Baseball-Reference.com; MLB.com.
Coming Soon; BBRT’s National League Predictions/Watch List.
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