BBRT’s 2019 Preview Week continues with our Day Five look at the American League Central.  Things, I will again caution continue to change – and, of course,  there are still some “difference makers” out there on the free-agent market (like Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel).   Once we’ve gone through the divisions, BBRT will wrap up (on Day Seven) with predictions for the major awards (ROY, CYA, MVP).   Note:  After the general comments, each team is reviewed in more detail.  Keep in mind, these are just BBRT’s opinions and conjecture – not the result of any inside insight or info.

For the  NL East Preview, click here.

For the NL Central, click here. 

For the NL West, click here.

For the AL East, click here.

For the AL West, click here.

For the major awards, click here.

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AMERICAN LEAGUE  CENTRAL

Indians

Twins (Wild Card)

White Sox

Tigers

Royals

The Indians – who, in 2018, became the first MLB team with four 200 strikeout pitchers in a season – should ride a rotation of Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, Carlos Carrasco, Mike Clevinger and Shane Bieber to the division title.  They also should have enough power in the lineup (Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Carlos Santana) to hold off the Twins – but it will be a tougher go this time (there are some holes in the Cleveland lineup.  The Twins added 88 home runs to their lineup (Nelson Cruz, C.J. Cron and Jonathan Schoop), are enjoying a revitalized Byron Buxton and have an improving  rotation (Jose Berrios, Kyle gibbon and Michael Pineda).  Questions in the bullpen and the dominance of Cleveland’s starting staff may restrict the Twins to a Wild Card spot.  (I see competition for the Wild Card coming primarily form Oakland.) Chicago has some good young bats and arms and a new closer Alex Colome; but it’s along way back from 100 losses.  Still, they seem to be moving in the right direction. The Tigers and Royals finished 13th and 14^th in runs scored in the AL lasts season (only the Orioles score fewer) and did not do enough to improve.

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INDIANS – First Place

Corey Kluber, will lead a dominant rotation.  Photo by apardavila

Okay, in the name of transparency, I must admit I have a strong preference for good pitching and love 2-1 and 3-2 ball games.  With that in mind, picking the Indians to win the AL Central was easy.  They have, arguably, the best starting rotation in the American League. (Only the Astros could argue.)

In 2018, Indians starters put up a 3.39 earned run average – second in the AL only to the Astros 3.16. They also pitched the most innings of any AL starting staff (993 2/3), threw the most complete games (5) and fanned the second-most batters (1,066 to the Astros’ 1,101).

Let’s look at the rotation. It starts with Corey Kluber (20-7, 2.89, with 222 whiffs in 215 innings).  The two-time Cy Young Award winner is like money in the bank. He has been an All Star in each of the past three seasons, going a cumulative 56-20, 2.77 and pitching 633 2/3 innings.  Next up is a toss-up between Carlos Carrasco (17-10, 3.38, with 231 strikeouts in 192 innings) and Trevor Bauer (12-6, 2.21, with 221 strikeouts in 175 1/3 frames). Carrasco and Bauer have both gone 35-16 over the past two seasons. Mike Clevinger really makes the Indians’ Big Three a Big Four. He was 13-8, 3.02 last season – and fanned 207 batters in 200 innings.  Finally, there is Shane Bieber.  Just 24-years-old, Bieber went 11-5, 4.55 and fanned 118 batters in 114 2/3 innings – as a rookie.

In 2018, the Indians became the first MLB team to boast four 200-strikeout pitchers in the same season.

While the rotation seems set, the bullpen “not so much.” Gone, through free agency, are two key contributors: former closer Cody Allen (27 saves for the Indians in 2018) and elite set-up man Andrew Miller.  That does not mean the cupboard is bare.  Brad Hand – acquired in a trade with the Padres last July – saved 32 games last season.  After coming over to the Indians, he went 0-1, 2.28 with eight saves in 28 appearances. Submariner Adam Cimber came over in the same trade and had a 3.42 ERA in 70 appearances for the Padres and Indians. Other bullpen pieces include: Tyler Olson (4.94 in 43 appearances: Dan Otero (5.22 in 51 appearances); and Neil Ramirez (4.54 in 47 appearances); and Oliver Perez (1.39 in 51 appearances). Closer appears to be in good Hands (pun intended), but the overall pen is more serviceable than exceptional.

Now to the lineup.  It has power in the infield, but there are a more than a few weak points offensively.  Let’s start with power points.  The Indians will rely heavily on SS Francisco Lindor (.277-38-92, with 25 stolen bases – working his way back from a calf injury) and 3B Jose Ramirez (.270-39-105, with 34 steals). Both are capable of MVP-level performance. 2B Jason Kipnis hit .230-18-75, but the two-time All Star has shown some decline offensively. The Indians brought back Carlos Santana for 2019 (part of a three team trade – Indians/Mariners/Rays) to DH and possibly platoon at 1B.  Santana hit .229-24-86 for the Phillies last season.  He was with the Indians from 2010-17 and put up five seasons of 20 or more home runs and seven seasons of 74 or more RBI.  Newcomer Jake Bauer (who came over in the same trade as Santana) could also see some time at the one bag. He was .201-11-48 in 96 games.

Things start to get a bit thin after this. The outfield seems up for grabs with garden duties perhaps shared by some combination of Tyler Naquin (.264-3-23 in 61 games); Leonys Martin (.255-11-33 in 91 games for the Tigers and Indians); recently signed Carlos Gonzalez (.276-16-64 in 132 games for the Rockies); and Greg Allen (.257-2-20, with 21 steals in 91 games.)  Jake Bauer could also play some outfield – particularly if free-agent signee Hanley Ramirez (.254-6-29 for the Red Sox) takes a lot of DH at bats.  Ramirez, however, is 35-years-old and was released by the Red Sox last May. Still, he hit 23 home runs in 2017 – and the Indians are looking to add to the offense.

At catcher, Yan Gomes (a 2018 All Star) is gone (trade, Nationals). The leading candidates to replace Gomes are Roberto Perez, Eric Haase and Kevin Plawecki (trade, Mets).  In 2018, these three backstops hit a combined .189-9-50 in 433 at bats.  Pawlecki may offer the best upside. He was .210-7-30 in 79 games for the Mets.

Things will be tighter in the Central Division this year, but the Indians should have the pitching to hold off the Twins.

KEY OFF-SEASON MOVE

Bringing back Carlos Santana (DH/1B). He brings some pop (24 home runs for the Phillies 2018) to a lineup that will need it – and he should be comfortable in Cleveland (where he played from 2010-17 and had five season of 20 or more long balls).

PLAYER TO WATCH

In 2018, Trevor Bauer went 12-6, 2.21 and fanned 221 batters, despite losing five weeks to a leg injury. He could be in for breakout season.

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TWINS – Second Place (Wild Card)

If the Indians had made the moves the Twins made in the off-season (adding the free-agent power bats of Nelson Cruz, C.J. Cron, Jonathan Schoop and Marwin Gonzalez … a total of 106 home runs last season), they would have run away with the division this year.  The fact that the Twins, not the Indians (in apparent payroll reduction mode), made those moves has opened the door for the Twins to challenge for the Central Division crown. (Okay, I’m from Minnesota, maybe this is home-town thinking – but I’m sticking to it.)

Nelson Cruz, new Twins power source.  Photo by Keith Allison

Let’s take a look at the Twins, starting with the line-up.  Free-agent (Mariners) DH Nelson Cruz is the key. Cruz went .256-37-97 a year ago – and has hit 37 or more home runs in each of the past five seasons.  He may be 38, but the five-time All Star has plenty of pop left in his bat.  (Ah, the luxury of the DH.)  Over at 1B, the Twins added free agent (Rays) C.J. Cron (.253-30-74). The homers and RBI were career (five-season) highs, but Cron should be good for 25 long balls. The Twins also added Jonathan Schoop (free agent, Brewers) to handle second base. Schoop hit .233-21-61 in what was an off year.  Finally, the Twins brought in free agent (Astros) Marwin Gonzalez (.247-16-68). Gonzalez can play anywhere on the diamond, but is likely to hold down third base until Miguel Sano returns from a foot injury.  No matter where he plays, the Twins will give Gonzalez plenty of at bats.

In 2018, Marwin Gonzalez started 65 games in LF, 29 games at SS, 19 games at 2B, 21 games at 1B and 2 games at 3B.

The Twins returned some quality bats to the lineup as well. LF Eddie Rosario went .288-24-77; SS Jorge Polanco went .288-6-42 in 77 games (suspension); and RF Max Kepler put up a .224-20-58 line and is a plus-defender (with offensive upside).  The surprise of the 2018 season may very well be Byron Buxton, who had a tough year in 2018 (.156-0-4 in 28 games … toe injury/migraines). Buxton is considered MLB’s fastest player and is a Gold Glove defender.  The Twins have been waiting for him to deliver on his offensive potential and this might be the year.  As this is written, Buxton is hitting .448-4-13 in 29 Spring Training at bats.  If the 25-year-old has “figured it out,” a 20-20 season would be the low end of expectations.   The Twins are also hoping for a breakout campaign for 3B Miguel Sano – currently recovering from an off-season heel injury. Sano has 25-30 home run power (.264-28-77 in 2017), but suffered through a down season in 2018 (.199-13-41 in 71 games). It will be interesting to see where he stands when he returns (expected in May).  Jason Castro will likely handle the bulk of the catching.  Notably, the Twins can put together a pretty solid bench from the likes of Ehire Adrianza, Willians Astudillo, Jake Cave, Ronald Torreyes and Zack Granite.   This team will score some runs.

On the mound, the rotation is led by Jose Berrios (12-11, 3.84, with 202 strikeouts in 192 1/3 innings) and Kyle Gibson (10-13, 3.62). Also in the rotation is Jake Odorizzi (7-10, 4.49).  Then there are the newcomers.  Michael Pineda may be the key to the Twins chances to catch the Indians. Coming off 2017 Tommy John Surgery, Pineda is both high-reward and high risk. He last pitched in the majors for the Yankees in 2017, going 8-4, 4.39.  The Twins also added Martin Perez (2-7, 6.22 in 2018 … elbow issues). Perez, a 13 –game winner in 2017, has looked sound in Spring Training. This is a workable rotation, with some positive upside, that can keep the Twins in games.  It is not, however, a dominant staff like that of the Indians.  That may be the difference in the Central.

Like the Indians, the Twins also have some questions in the bullpen – although they do have some solid arms.  What they don’t have is a proven closer. (Craig Kimbrel is still out there guys.)  It appears the ninth inning will belong to either Trevor May (4-1, 3.20 in 24 appearances) or free-agent signee Blake Parker. Parker, with 14 saves last season (2-1, 3.26, 70 strikeouts in 66 1/3 innings) appears to have the edge.   Other bullpen assets include: Taylor Rogers (2.63 in 72 appearances) and Trevor Hildenberger (5.42 in 73 games).

Overall, the Twins look to give the Indians a run for their money, but the Indians’ rotation may be just too much.  Now, if trade rumors surrounding some of the Cleveland staff come to fruition, the Twins could sneak by. I do think they’ve improved enough for a Wild Card berth.

KEY OFF SEASON-MOVE

The addition of DH Nelson Cruz and his 35-40 home run power will jolt the Twins offense.

PLAYER TO WATCH

An interesting story out of Spring Training has been 30-year-old Ryne Harper – working to make his MLB on-field debut.  Harper was called up to the major (by the Mariners) in May of 2017 – but was sent back down about three weeks later without making an appearance. He signed a minor-league contract with the Twins in February of 2018 and pitched last season at AA and AAA. In eight minor league seasons, Harper is 29-24, 2.56 in 293 relief appearances.  Harper, at this writing, has made eight appearances and thrown eight innings – with no earned runs and ten strikeouts.  Like to see him get into an MLB box score.  (Then, of course, there is the ongoing Minnesota Byron Buxton watch. Could this be THE year?)

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WHITE SOX – Third Place

I do like the direction White Sox squad and can’t see them losing 100 games again.  They are also a few pieces away from .500, but are moving in the right direction. That should be good enough for third place in the Central Division.

Let’s start with the starting pitching. Reynaldo Lopez (7-10, 3.91 in 32 starts), sporting a high-90’s fastball and solid slider, looks like the real deal.  Carlos Rodon (6-8, 4.18) continues to show hints of solid potential – and will be the Sox’ Opening Day starter. The Sox also added nine-year veteran Ivan Nova (trade Pirates), who was 9-9, 4.19 a year ago and could pass on some wisdom to the White Sox’ mound prospects (as well as chew up innings). The fourth spot in the rotation looks to belong to Lucas Giolito (10-13, 6.13, in 32 starts), while reports have veteran Ervin Santana and Manny Banuelos competing for the final spot.  Both Santana and Banuelos have potential health issues to deal with.  The Sox will be keeping an eye on prospect Michael Kopech, recovering from Tommy John surgery. Just 23-years-old, Kopech has five minor league seasons under his belt (24-22, 3.05 with 170 strikeouts in 126 1/3 innings).  The point here is, the White Sox are working to build the rotation for the future.

The ChiSox did fortify the bullpen adding Alex Colome (trade, Mariners), who went 7-5, 3.04 with 12 saves in 2018, and free agent Kelvin Herrera (2-3, 2.44, with 17 saves for Washington and Kansas City a year ago). Colome, with a mid-90’s fastball had 47 saves for the Rays in 2017, should handle the ninth inning effectively for the White Sox. Herrera gives them a backup at closer and a reliable late inning setup man. Other key arms in the pen are: Sinkerballer Nate Jones (3.00 in 33 games); Jace Fry (4.38 in 59 appearances, with 70 strikeouts in 51 1.3 innings). and Juan Minaya (3.28 in 52 appearances).

Jose Abreu, reliable power in Chicago.  Photo by rrescot

Going to the lineup, three names to remember are: Jose Abreu, Yonder Alonso and Daniel Palka – they’ll be in the middle of it all. Abreu at 1B brings steady power (.265-22-68 in 2018 and 146 home runs in five MLB seasons). Switch hitter Alonso (acquired in a trade with the Indians) hit .250-23-83 a year ago and will bring some port-side power to the lineup at DH; and LF Palka went .240-27-67, but needs to cut down on his strikeouts (153 K’s in 417 at bats). SS Tim Anderson will also play a key offensive role – after a .240-20-64, 26-steal campaign. The remainder of the lineup looks like: Wellington Castillo (.259-6-15 in 49 games) at C, along with free-agent James McCann; Yolmer Sanchez (.242-8-55, with 14 steals at) 2B; Yoan Moncada (.235-17-61, with 12 steals) at 3B. The  outfield will be  filled out from among Jon Jay (.268-3-40 for the Royals and Diamondbacks); Adam Engel (.235-6-29, with 16 steals); and Leury Garcia. (.271-4-32, with 12 steals).  Waiting in the wings is of prospect Elroy Jimenez – a .311 hitter with 65 home runs in five minor league seasons.  Pretty sure he’ll be playing in Chicago some time this season.

The Sox get extra credit for being in the Manny Machado sweepstakes.  It probably was no coincidence that they added Yonder Alonso (Machado’s brother-in-law) and Jon Jay (a Machado off-season workout partner) this off-season.

The Sox will be improved, but 75-78 wins might be the ceiling. Still, BBRT thinks they’ve made enough progress to finish ahead of the Royals and Tigers.

KEY OFF-SEASON MOVE

Trading for Alex Colome gave the White Sox one less worry for 2019 – they have a dependable and experienced closer.

PLAYER TO WATCH

At some time during the year, I expect to see Elroy Jimenez in the White Sox outfield.  The 22-year-old already has five minor-league seasons under his belt – with a .311 average and 65 home runs.  In 2018, he went .337-22-75 at Double A and Triple A.  He’s close to ready and the White Sox are likely to give him a shot.

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TIGERS – Fourth place

The Tigers scored the second fewest runs in the AL in 2018 (630), hit the fewest home runs (135) and had fourth-lowest team batting average – and they didn’t take any major steps toward improvement.

In 2018, Nick Castellanos was the only Tiger to drive in more than 54 runs (89), hit more than 19 home runs (23) or (among qualifiers) bat higher than .269 (.298)

Miguel Cabrera – Comeback Player of the Year? The Bengals could use it.  Photo by Keith Allison

Detroit could take a small step forward if Miguel Cabrera (who missed much of last season with a torn biceps) can put himself into the running for Comeback Player of the Year.  Cabrera is in his 16th MLB season – and the wear and tear is starting to show.  Still, he is an 11-time All Star and four-time batting champ – and only two seasons removed from a .316-38-108 campaign.  He will once again b in the middle of the lineup.  Cabrera’s main support will come from RF Nick Castellanos (.298-23-89), a steady, professional hitter; newcomer, free-agent Josh Harrison (.250-8-38 in 97 games for the Pirates); and Niko Goodrum, who can really play around the diamond, and will get plenty of at bats after his .245-16-53, with 12 steals, a year ago. Also in the infield will be free-agent signee SS Jody Mercer (.251-6-39 with the Pirates); 3B Jeimer Candelario (.224-19-54); and C Grayson Greiner (.219-0-12 in 30 games and .266-4-23 at Triple A).

Joining Castellanos in the outfield, we are likely to see power-hitting prospect Christian Stewart (.267-2-10 in 17 games and .263-25-80 at three minor league stops) in LF and Jacoby Jones (.207-11-34, with 11 steals) in CF.  DH may be by committee with John Hicks, Mikie Mahtook and, at times, Cabrera.

On the mound, the rotation will miss Michael Fulmer (knee). It now looks like the rotation will include Jordan Zimmerman (7-8, 4.52), Mathew Boyd (9-13, 4.39), Daniel Norris (0-5, 5.68), Matt Moore (3-8, 6.79 with the Rangers) and free-agent signee Tyson Ross (8-9, 4.15 for the Cardinals and Padres). Last season, no Tiger pitcher won more than nine games – and Mike Fiers was the only starter with a winning record (7-6, 3.48).  Fiers, by the way, was traded to the A’s in mid-season.  Tyson Ross looks like the best bet to reach double-digit wins for Detroit. The nine-season MLB veteran has a killer slider. He was 2014 All Star and has twice exceeded 30 starts and reached double-digit wins in a season.

In the pen, Shane Greene (32 saves, but a 5.12 ERA) will close. Greene did fan 65 batters in 63 1.3 innings. If Greene falters, 24-year-old Joe Jimenez is ready to step up.  Jimenez was a bright spot in the pen, going 5-4, 4.31 and fanning 78 batters in 62 2/3 innings.   Others in the pen could include Daniel Stumpf (4.93 in 56 games), Buck Farmer (4.15 in 66 games) and Drew Verhagen (4.63 in 41 games).  I wouldn’t be surprise to see some young arms earning MLB auditions in the Tiger pen over the course of the season. Heck, depending how the season goes, we may even see old-schooler Ron Gardenhire try the Rays “Opener” and “Bullpen Days” strategies.

KEY OFF-SEASON MOVE

The Tigers were not very active this off-season.  BBRT will go with Tyson Ross for this recognition.  At 8-9, 4.15 for the Cardinals and Padres a year ago, he seems the Tiger most likely to put up double-digit wins.

PLAYER TO WATCH

BBRT likes Blaine Hardy. The 32-year-old lefty went 4-5, 3.56 in 30 games (13 starts). His career record is 13-9, 3.60. I’d be tempted to give him a few more starts – a fitting reward for ten minor-league campaigns (39-23, 2.68).  I do love to see perseverance rewarded.  (There is also, of course, the Miguel Cabrera watch.)

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ROYALS – Fifth Place

The Royals dropped 104 games last season – and there is no shortage of reasons why.  They scored the third-fewest runs in the American League, while giving up the fourth-most. Their team ERA (4.94) was the AL’s second-highest. From a power standpoint, they hit 155 home runs and gave up 205.  As BBRT looks at the direction the Royals are taking in “recovery,” it appears speed and defense are among the priorities.

Whit Merrifield makes the Royals’ offense go.  Photo by Keith Allison

In the off season they added free-agent CF Billy Hamilton (.236-4-29, with 34 stolen bases). Hamilton provides speed on the bases and covers a lot of ground on defense – but needs to get on base more.  Hamilton will probably bat in the number-nine spot, which means a couple of additional speedsters will follow (the second time through the order). Whit Merrifield is back at 2B.  He a plus defender and, last year, led MLB in hits (192) and stolen bases (45).  He hit .304 – and added 12 home runs.  Right after Merrifield in the order, we’re likely to see SS Adalberto Mondesi. The 23-year-old takes over full-time from the departed Alcides Escobar.  Last season, in just 75 games, Mondesi hit .276, with 14 home runs, 37 RBI and 32 steals.  These could be the “Running Royals” of 2019. The Royals will need Mondesi’s power-potential to be realized, since they lost their most reliable power source C Salvador Perez – to Tommy John surgery.  Perez had put up the identical total of 27 home runs and 80 RBI in each of the last two seasons. In 2018, he was, in fact, the team leader in home runs and RBI. How much are they losing? Kansas City signed Martin Maldonado (free agent) to handle the catching.  In 2018, Maldonado went .223-9-44 for the Angels and Astros.

In the middle of the lineup, the Royals are looking to 1B Ryan O’Hearn (.262-12-30 in 44 games); six-time Gold Glover LF Alex Gordon (.245-13-54, with 12 steals); and DH Jorge Soler (.265-9-28 in 61 games … foot fracture). Third base should go to Hunter Dozier .229-11-34 in 102 games, while RF looks to go some combination of Bret Phillips, Brian Goodwin and Chris Owings. Owings (.206-4-22 in 106 games) can play multiple positions – adding to his bench value.

The Royals will annoy a lot of people with their speed, but there is not enough offense (particularly without Perez) to make a move up in the standings.

The rotation will be led by Danny Duffy (8-12, 4.88) – who has been working his way through shoulder issues. Brad Keller (9-6, 3.08 in 41 games/20 starts) – showing great potential (and a mid-90’s sinking fastball) his rookie season.  Joining Duffy and Keller will be Jakob Junis (9-12, 4.37); innings-eater Ian Kennedy (3-9, 4.26 in 22 starts); and, most likely, Jorge Lopez (2-5, 5.03). Chris Ellis and Health Fillmyer are other possibilities for the fifth spot.  Fillmyer (4-2, 4.26)  could also slot into long relief.

The bullpen will be led by new closer free-agent signee Brad Boxberger (3-7, 4.39 with 32 saves for the Diamondbacks).  Wily Peralta (1-0, 3.67, with 14 saves in 37 appearance), who has thrived in a relief role, should serve as a late-inning setup man and pick up a few saves along the way.  After coming over form the Brewers, Peralta notched 14 saves in 14 opportunities for the Royals. Among the others likely to be in the pen are Kevin McCarthy (3.25 in 65 appearances), Tim Hill (4.53 in 70 games) and Jake Diekman (4.73 in 71 games for Texas and Arizona.)  The bullpen could prove a Royals’ strength in 2018.

KEY OFF-SEASON MOVE

Signing Brad Boxberger free agent Brad Boxberger (32 saves a year ago, 41 in 2015) really lengthens and strengthens the Royals’ bullpen.  The question is, “How many leads will he be given to protect?)

PLAYER TO WATCH

23-year-old Adalberto Mondesi, taking over at shortstop, promises to bring a combination of speed and power to the Royals. The fleet switch-hitter went .276-14-37, with 32 steals in just 75 games.  Mondesi appear to have “found it,” after hitting just .181 in 72 MLB games in 2016-17.  BBRT will be watching to see how he fares in a full MLB campaign.

NEXT UP – THE AMERICAN LEAGUE WEST

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It’s Day Four of  BBRT’s 2019 Preview Week and time to move on to the American League – again going East to West.  Things, as I continue to caution, can change – particularly since there are still some “difference makers” out there on the free-agent market (Like Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel).   BBRT  today continues its look at each MLB Division, this time the AL East.  Once we’ve gone through the divisions, we’ll wrap up with predictions for the major awards (ROY, CYA, MVP).   Note:  After the general comments, each team is reviewed in more detail.  Keep in mind, these are just BBRT’s opinions and conjecture – not the result of any inside insight or info.

For the  NL East Preview, click here.

For the NL Central, click here. 

For the NL West, click here.

For the AL Central, click here.

For the AL West, click here.

For the major awards, click here.

AMERICAN LEAGUE EAST

Red Sox

Yankees (Wild Card)

Rays

Blue Jays

Orioles

The Red Sox won 108 games – and the Division title – a year ago; and the boys in the band are pretty much back. They boast a solid offense, led by Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez – and can expect even more from Rafael Devers.  The rotation is again led by Chris Sale and has solid arms from one-through-five.  The only weakness might be in the bullpen, where they did not re-sign elite closer Craig Kimbrel.  The Yankees have 13’1” and 527 pounds of power in Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton (and a number of other thumpers), as well as a lights-out bullpen.  Concerns with the starting rotation, however, will keep them in the Wild Card spot. The Rays and their “Opener Strategy” and “Bullpen Days” will again be competitive, but don’t have the offense to catch the Red Sox or Yankees. Toronto will be looking up in the standing and waiting for Vlad Guerrero, Jr.; while the Orioles look to be in for another long season.

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RED SOX – First Place

2018 AL MVP Mookie Betts will again lead the BoSox offense – and he’ll have plenty of help.
Photo by Keith Allison

The Red Sox went 108-54 last season – and brought home a World Series Championship. Pretty much the same cast in in place, and they are ready for an encore. The rotation and lineup are back intact and the offense might even be improved, depending on when  Dustin Pedroia returns 2B. The only potential weakness is in the bullpen, where 2018 closer Craig Kimbrel – one of the best in the business – is still out there as a free agent.

Let’s start with the potential trouble spot – closer.  The contest looks to be between Matt Barnes and Ryan Brasier.  Brasier, however, has had health issues this spring (toe) and Barnes probably now has the edge.  The 29-year-old Barnes would bring a 96-mph fastball and a solid curve to the ninth inning. In a setup role last season, he went 6-4, 3.65 in 62 appearance. More important, he fanned 96 batters in 61 2/3 innings. Looking further into the pen, potential key components include: Brasier (1.60 in 34 games); Heath Embree (4.20 in 67 games); Hector Valazquez (3.18 in 47 games); and Brandon Workman (3.27 in 43 games).  Given what we can expect will be a tight race with the Yankees, I anticipate the Red Sox will move to bolster the bullpen by mid-season.

CONSISTENCY NOT NECESSARILY A HOBGOBLIN …

Chris Sale has been among the top five AL Cy Young Award vote-getters in each of the past six seasons – although he has never captured the award.

The rotation looks set, minus some health concerns (regarding southpaw Chris Sale’s shoulder). With proper handling, Sale (12-4, 2.11 with 237 strikeouts in 158 innings) should again turn in performance worthy of Cy Young Award consideration. Sale will be followed in the rotation by another veteran lefty, David Price.  The 2012 Cy Young Award winner went 16-7, 3.58 in 30 starts and has won 15 or more games in five of the last seven seasons.  Next up is another former CYA (2016), who doesn’t put up as flashy a stat line as Sales or Price, but pitches well enough to when (a la, perhaps, Jack Morris).  Rick Porcello went 17-7, 4.28 in 2018 and has posted double-digit wins in nine of his ten MLB seasons.  The fourth starter will be Eduardo Rodriguez (13-5, 3.82, with 144 strikeouts in 129 innings). At 26, he may be on the verge of a breakout season.  Post-season hero Nathan Eovaldi will also be back. Acquired last July in a trade with the Rays (and signed for 2019 as a free agent), Eovaldi went 3-3, 3.33 in 12 appearances for the Red Sox (11 starts). Eovaldi, who has twice had Tommy John surgery, needs to be handled with care. If any of these falter, knuckleballer Steven Wright or prospect Darwinzon Hernandez could take a spot.

No team scored more runs in 2018 than the Red Sox (876). They also led MLB in team batting average (.268) and slugging percentage (.453).

In 2018, The Red Sox had two of the top four vote betters in the AL Most Valuable Player balloting – and that’s a pretty good way to start your offense.  It begins with 2018 AL MVP Mookie Betts, the AL batting champ (.346), who also hit 32 home runs, stole 30 bases, drove in 81 runners and scored an AL-best 129 runs. Oh, and the Red Sox’ RF  also brought home his third consecutive Gold Glove. He gets plenty of help from DH J.D. Martinez (fourth in the MVP voting), who hit .330, with 43 home runs and a league-topping 130 RBI.  Joining Betts in the garden will again be LF Andrew Benintendi – just 24-year-old – who hit .290-16-87, with 21 steals (and there may be a Gold Glove in his future). CF belongs to 2018 Gold Glover Jackie Bradley, Jr. (.234-13-57, with 17 steals).

In the infield, 3B Rafael Devers (just 22-years-old) hit 21 home runs in 121 games (.240 average, 66 RBI) and has tremendous upside.  He just needs to hone his plate discipline – 38 walks and 121 whiffs. Devers can look to his left for advice from young (26-years-old), but veteran (seventh MLB season) shortstop Xander Bogaerts – who hit .288, with 23 home runs and 103 RBI last season.  In his first full season, Bogaerts drew 39 walks and fanned 138 times.  By 2018, his walks were up by 17, his whiffs down by 39 and his average up 48 points. Over to Bogaerts’ left, the Red Sox hope to see more of a familiar face this season – 2007 Rookie of the Year, 2008 AL MVP, four-time All Star and four-time Gold Glover Dustin Pedroia. Pedroia missed nearly all of 2018 (knee) and will start the season on the  injured list. He is expected to return early in the season and, if healthy, should be good for a .300 average (his career mark) and 15 long balls. Until Pedroia is ready – or when he needs occasional rest –  the Red Sox have plenty of protection in the versatile Brock Holt (.277-7-46 in 109 games) and Eduardo Nunez (.265-10-44 in 127 games).  Both can effectively play multiple positions. Over at 1B, we’re likely to see both left-handed hitting Mitch Moreland (.245-15-68) and righty Steve Pearce (.284-11-42). The bulk of the catching will be handled by Christian Vazquez (.207-3-16 in 80 games), who has shown solid defensive skills.

In 2018, Brock Holt started games at 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, LF, RF and DH.

Overall, Boston has a balanced and talented offense (power, contact and speed), a solid rotation and a bullpen with potential.  They should again hold off the Yankees.

KEY OFF-SEASON MOVE

When you win 108 games, you’re not likely to make a lot of changes.  As expected, the Red Sox were quiet on the free-agent front. The biggest move by the Red Sox was one of subtraction, rather than addition. It was not re-signing free-agent closer Craig Kimbrel, who has 333 MLB saves (108 saves for Boston over the past three seasons). Of course, Kimbrel is still on the market, so that could change (not likely, though).

PLAYER TO WATCH

For BBRT, it’s Matt Barnes.  Barnes and Ryan Brasier are in the Red Sox’ closer race (they could even share the job).  I lean toward Barnes, who has shown closer stuff – improving each season.  His strikeouts per nine ratio has gone like this: 2014 – 8.0; 2015 – 8.2; 2016 – 9.6; 2017 – 10.7; 2018 – 14.0. Still, he only has two saves in his five-season MLB career (20 wins and 14 losses) and his 3.65 ERA in 2018 was his career best.  BBRT will be watching to see how Barnes and Brasier are handled as the season opens.

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YANKEES – Second Place (Wild Card)

I must admit, I originally projected the Yankees’ would overtake the Red Sox for the East Division title.  But then, Luis Severino – the expected Yankee rotation “ace” – came down with shoulder issues.  (In addition, CF and lead off man Aaron Hicks has had back issues this spring and may not be in the Opening Day lineup.)   The race between arch-rivals Red Sox and Yankees is likely to be so close, missing Severino for three to four weeks could be critical.  (I also thought it was interesting that the Yankees – as I write this – are working toward a deal with veteran free-agent  Gio Gonzalez, who went 10-11, 4.21 for the Nationals and Brewers last season.  Could this indicate a level of concern regarding the rotation? Gonzalez, by the way, has started 30 or more games in eight of the past ten seasons).

Still, the Yankees have plenty of power in the lineup (an MLB-record 267 home runs a year ago), a truly lights-out bullpen and (I believe) just enough quality in the rotation to once again capture a Wild Card sport.

In 2018, the Yankees set a new MLB record with 267 home runs – but were still outscored 876 to 851 by the Red Sox (208 round trippers). Boston also had an edge in runs surrendered (647-669).

Aaron Judge … holding court in the Yankee lineup.
Photo by Keith Allison

Let’s start with the lineup. It’s hard to find a weak spot in the Yankee lineup. In 2018, six Bronx Bombers hit at least 20 home runs and five drove in 75 or more runs.  It all starts with DH Giancarlo Stanton (.266-38-100), who has topped 30 long balls in every season in which he has played at least 120 games (five of nine).  He can expect plenty of help from RF Aaron Judge, who went .278-27-67 in 112 game last season (wrist fracture) – after hitting 52 home runs as a rookie in 2017.  A really good sign: Last season, Judge improved his plate discipline, walking 67 times and fanning 76 – as compared to 2017’s 127 walks and 208 K’s. Judge can truly be a big (6’7” – 282 lbs.) bat in the Yankee line up.  Sticking with the outfield, CF (and switch hitter) Aaron Hicks had a career year in 2018 (.248-27-79, with 11 steals) and plus-defender Brett Gardner (.236-12-45, with 16 steals should be back in LF. If any of these miss time, 24-years-old Clint Frazier (.305-11-24 in 52 minor league games and .265 in 15 games for the Yankees last season) could pick up some playing time.  Note: Hicks may miss some early time. 

The Yankees boast unexpected power in the infield.  Rookie 3B Miguel Andujar was sterling, going .297-27-92. He’s just 24-years-old and had plenty of upside (his 47 doubles point to 30-35 home run potential). Second base goes to 22-year-old Gleyber Torres, who also has an intriguing upside, after going .271-24-77 as a rookie in 2018. At 1B, the Yankees can look to the surprising Luke Voit, who hit .333-14-33 in 39 games for the Yankees.  It appears Voit has a notable edge over Greg Bird, who has yet to live up to offensive expectations (.199-11-38 in 82 games).  There could be issues at SS.  While Didi Gregorius (27 home runs in 2018) is probably out until July (Tommy John surgery), the Yankees brought in veteran free-agent Troy Tulowitzki to fill the gap. Tulo has seven 20+ home run season on his resume, but also has had injury issues in the past (missed the 2017 after heel surgery and has had only three seasons of 140 or more games in 12 MLB campaigns). We’ll have to see how this works out.  If Tulowitzki can’t hold the SS spot until Degregorius returns, the Yanks do have options.  Torres could slide over to short and free-agent (Rockies) signee DJ LeMahieu could handle 2B. LeMahieu is a two-time All Star and three-time Gold Glover, with a batting title and a .298 career average on his resume.  He might just force his way into the lineup.  Gary Sanchez and Austin Romine will handle the catching.  Sanchez offers more power (17 home runs, but only a .186 average in 89 games), while Romine offers better defense (and did hit .244, with ten home runs, in 77 games).

Luis Severino faced some shoulder issues in Spring Training and will not get the Opening Day start.  Indications are that he won’t miss much time. Of more concern may be his 2018 first half/second half splits. Severino went 14-2, 2.31 before the All Star break and 5-6, 5.57 after.

The starting rotation does raise cause for concern, with two members of the anticipated rotation not ready for Opening Day.  Staff leader, 25-year-old Luis Severino (19-8, 3.39, with 220 strikeouts in 191 1/3 innings), is facing shoulder issues. In addition, six-time All Star, 18-season veteran C.C. Sabathia (9-7, 3.65 in 29 starts) will start the season on the Injured List  (The 38-year-old Sabathia an angioplasty in the off season).

Opening Day now belongs to 30-year-old Masahiro Tanaka, who went 12-6, 3.75 a year ago and has double-digit wins in each of his five MLB seasons. Next up is James Paxton (acquired in a trade with the Mariners). The 30-year-old southpaw is entering his seventh MLB season. Over the past two years with Seattle, he has gone 23-11, 3.40 and fanned 364 batters in 296 1/3 innings. He should have more opportunities for wins as part of the Yankee rotation. The third spot in the rotation will be J.A. Happ – acquired by the Yankees in July and re-signed.  Happ – a 12-year-veteran and a 20-game winner in 2016 – was a solid pickup for the Yankees.  After going 10-6, 4.18 for the Blue Jays before the trade, he went 7-0, 2.69 in 11 starts for New York.  The absence of Severino and Sabathia opens up a spot for Jonathan Loaisiga. The 24-year-old turned in a 6-1, 2.89 record at three minor-league levels in 2018.  He was 2-0, 5.11 in nine appearances with the Yankees.  It also opens the door (or at least a window) for Domingo German (but a fifth starter may not be needed until May).

The bullpen is fully loaded and ready to fire.  These power arms can close down a game in a big hurry. It starts with closer Aroldis Chapman and his consistently 100 mph+ heater.  Chapman was 3-0, 2.45 with 32 saves a year ago – and fanned 16.3 batters per nine innings. Also returning are Dellin Betances (2.70 ERA in 66 appearances, with 15.5 whiffs per nine); Chad Green (2.50 in in 63 appearances and 11.2 strikeouts per nine innings); and Zach Britton (3.10 in 41 appearance for the Orioles and Yankees – and 142 career saves on his resume). And, in a “the rich get richer” kind of moment, there is also free-agent signee (Rockies) Adam Ottavino, who put up a 2.43 ERA in 75 appearance for Colorado, striking out 13.0 batters per nine.

Overall the Yankees have a powerful line up and a, perhaps even more, powerful bullpen.  Questions about the starting pitching and at shortstop may keep them from overtaking the Red Sox – but I can’t see them finishing any lower than second (and in a Wild Card spot).

KEY OFF-SEASON PICKUP

Some would point to the signing of Adam Ottavino – adding to an already dominant  bullpen – or to the signing of DJ LeMahieu  – a two-time All Star and three tie Gold Glover – who can play all around the infield.   Given the Yankees early rotation issues, BBRT will go with the signing of James Paxton, who went 23-11, 3.40 for Seattle over the last two seasons. The Yankees needed the added depth to the rotation. 

PLAYER TO WATCH

BBRT will be watching Luke Voit to see if his bat is for real. In 2018, with the Cardinals and Yankees, Voit hit .322-15-36 in 47 games. After hitting between .242 and .273 in his first three minor-league season, Voit broke out in 2016 with a .297-19-74 season at Double A (St. Louis system) and then went .327-13-50 in 74 games at Triple A in 2017.  A 2018 call up to the Cardinals led to a .246-4-18 line in 62 games. Back in the minors in 2018, Voit hit .301-11-14 in 78 games, before his solid performance for the Yankees.  It will be interesting to see what Voit can do over a full MLB season.

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RAYS – Third Place

Last May (May 19, precisely), the Rays launched what is now known as the “Opener” strategy. Starting an “opener” (charged with getting the first three to six outs) and following up with a more traditional starter or long reliever.  They also initiated “Bullpen Days” when relievers owned the whole game.

HOW’S THAT FOR OPENERS?

In the Rays “Opener” strategy, the most-used opener (Ray Stanek) started 29 games (in 59 appearances) – and averaged 1.4 innings pitched per start.  How effective was the strategy?  The Rays won 15 and lost 14 in those 29 Stanek starts.   Overall, the Rays wet 46-38 when using traditional starters and 44-34 with the Opener strategy and Bull Pen days combined.

Despite the success of its “Opener” strategy, the Rays did go out and add a traditional starter in the off-season – free-agent (Astros) Charlie Morton (15-3, 3.13 in 30 starts). Morton boasts a high-90’s heater and, last season, whiffed 201 batters in 167 innings.

EVER WATCH FEAR FACTOR?

Charlie Morton – a 2018 All Star – brings a mid-to-high-90’s heat, a knee-buckling curve and a willingness to “go inside” to his mound work.  Morton has led his league in hit batsmen four times in the last six seasons.

Despite his 29-10 record over the past two seasons, Morton will not be the “ace” of the traditional portion of the Rays’ rotation.  That honor goes to 26-year-old southpaw Blake Snell, the 2018 American League Cy Young Award winner.  Snell led the AL in wins with 21 and ERA at 1.89, while fanning 221 in 180 2/3 innings. The third true starter on the staff will be Tyler Glasgow – picked up from the Pirates last July in the Chris Archer trade. The big (6’8”/220-pound) righty went 1-5, 4.20 in 11 starts for the Rays – but has a high-90’s fastball (that occasionally reaches tripe-digits) and the Rays are hoping to harness his potential.  (Morton may prove a good mentor.) The final two “starts” will be Opener or Bullpen Days.  I find that a little scary, but maybe I’m just being too “old school.”

The Rays’ 3.74 team earned run average (3.74) was the second-best in the AL last season, so who am I to criticize their Opener and Bullpen Days strategies.  I’m still waiting to see the longer-term impact of the new roles on bullpen arms and starter psyches.  Still, the addition of Morton relieves (pun intended) some of the pressure off a bullpen that threw an MLB-high 824 innings last year.  Pitching – in whatever form –  is likely to be strength again.

The bullpen features a new closer. (Sergio Romo, who saved 25 games a year ago left via free agency.­)  The new ninth-inning guy is likely to be 24-year-old southpaw Jose Alvarado, who has great stuff, but has also shown command issues. Alvarado went 1-6. 2. 39 in 70 games last season, fanning 80 in 54 innings – but also walking 29. In six minor league seasons, he’s walked 153 (and struck out 263) in 229 1/3 innings. If he can keep the ball in the strike zone, he has the potential to become a top closer. Other key traditional bullpen arms include: Diego Castillo (4-2, 3.18 in 43 games/11 starts), Chaz Roe (1-3, 3.58 in 61 games) and newcomer (trade) Emilio Pagan (3-1, 4.35 in 55 games for Oakland).  Then, of course, there are a lot of less traditional (at least in usage) bullpen members.  Like Ryne Stanek (remember him from earlier), who went 2-3, 2.98 in 59 appearances (including 29 starts of two innings or less) and Ryan Yarbrough (often the second out the pen in Opener games), who went 16-6, 3.91 in 38 games (six starts) and 147 1/3 innings.  The long (and mostly short) of it, the Rays will use a well-stocked bullpen and an non-traditional approach to “getting outs” again this season.  The proof may be in the pudding, but I doubt they will improve on last season’s 90 wins or third-place finish.

Rays SS Willy Adames – on his way up. Photo by hueytaxi

The Rays came up a little short on offense a year ago – finishing ninth in the AL in runs scored (and more than 100 runs behind both the Red Sox and Yankees) and 14^th in home runs – despite the league’s third-highest team batting average.  (Remember, the Rays had the  AL’s second-lowest ERA and still didn’t make the post-season.) It was a team that needed power, but released their leading home run hitter (C.J. Cron).  While they did add a few bats in the off season, the Rays will still face a power shortage in 2019. Let’s look first at the newcomers. Avasial Garcia (free agent) went .236-19-49 in 93 games for the White Sox a year ago and should see time at DH and in a corner OF spot.  The Rays also picked up Yandy Diaz (trade, Indians), who can play either corner infield position, but has only one home run in 88 MLB games (a .283 average). Mike Zunino (trade, Mariners) brings power and solid defense the backstop position (.201-20-44 in 113 games).  As you can see, the Rays did not do a lot to address the power shortage. In fact, they may hit even fewer home runs in 2019 with Cron’s 30 dingers gone to the Twins.

Let’s scan the infield. First base may belong to Ji-Man Choi (.269-10-32 in 61 games), although Yandy Diaz could see some time there.  Also in the mix is 23-year-old Nathaniel Lowe, who hit .330-27-102 at three minor-league stops last season. If he is ready for the major league batter’s box, the Rays’ offense could take a step forward. Second base is likely to go to Joey Wendle (.300-7-61, with 16 steals), who will partner with SS Willy Adames (.278-10-34 in 85 games). Adames has considerable upside and could be a catalyst for the Ray’s offense.  Third base looks like Matt Duffy (.294-4-44).   One proviso here:  We may see some shifting of infield positions, particularly if the Rays work at getting Daniel Robertson’s bat (.262-9-34 in 87 games) into the lineup.  Robertson, last season, started games it 2B (35), SS (25), 3B (14) and LF (1).

The outfield seems more settled.  CF Kevin Kiermaier is a two-time Gold Glover in CF, but has had injury issues – topping 105 games played only once in the past five seasons. The Rays are hoping he can bounce back from last season’s .217-7-29 in 88 games.  LF goes to Tommy Pham, picked up last season in a trade with the Cardinals. Pham hit .275-21-63, with 15 steals for St. Louis and Tampa a year ago – .343-7-22 in 39 games for the Rays.  The Rays need him ready for Opening Day (he has had some shoulder issues). Over in right field, Austin Meadows (.287-6-17 in 59 games for the Pirates and Rays) should hold court.  The 24-year-old has hit .294 over six minor-league seasons and has plenty of upside.   And, of course, Avasail Garcia can put on a glove – although he seems more likely to stabilize the DH spot (where the Rays used 14 players a year ago).

Ultimately, the Rays have shown a knack for getting the most out of a versatile pitching staff and roster of position players.  I expect we’ll see a variety of lineups, continued “new age” pitching strategies and another season of .500+ baseball – but no post season appearance.

KEY OFF-SEASON MOVE

Free-agent Charlie Morton not only brings his 15-3 record and fastball to the Rays, he also brings 11 MLB seasons of experience – which could make him a solid source of advice for Tyler Glasgow.

PLAYER TO WATCH

BBRT will be watching SS Willy Adames – at 23-years-old already a big part of the Rays’ future. The Rays’ number-one prospect started 2018 at Triple A, where he hit .286-4-34 in 64 games.  He then hit .278-10-34 in 85 games with the Rays. The key, however, Is that Adames hit only .196 in his first 33 games, but then caught on and hit .330 the rest of the way.  

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BLUE JAYS – Fourth Place

A positive youth movement seems to be taking place in Toronto, but it isn’t ready to pay dividends yet. The talk of the town is, of course, Vlad Guerrero, Jr. – the future of third base in Toronto. Speculation is that Guererro will begin the season at Triple A (BBRT won’t get into that controversey), but be called up early in the season.  The 20-year-old does not appear to have anything more to prove in the minors.  In 2018, he hit .381-20-78, while moving from rookie ball all the way to Triple A.  Most telling is that he hit .336, with 6 home runs in 30 games at the minors’ highest level.

The Blue Jays have seen their win total drop in each of the last four seasons: 93-89-76-73.

While the Blue Jays (and their fans) await Guerrero, Brandon Drury (.169-1-10 in only 26 games … migraine, hand fracture) should hold sway at third base.   In his first two full MLB seasons (2016-17, Diamondbacks), Drury hit .275, with 29 home runs and 116 RBI in 269 games (playing 1B, 2B, 3B and corner OF).  If the  25-year-old Drury returns to form, you may see him at 1B and/or 2B to keep his bat in the lineup.

In the middle of the lineup expect to see 1B Justin Smoak, DH Kendrys Morales and RF Randal Grichuk.   Smoak is a solid defender, a steady bat (.242-25-77) and a veteran leader.  With the Blue Jays’ new direction, he may eventually be replaced at first by Drury or lefty-swinging, 23-year-old Rowdy Tellez (.314-4-14 in 23 games with the Blue Jays, after .270-13-50 in 112 games at Triple A). Morales, .249-21-57 a year ago, is a proven power source (seven seasons of 20+ home runs), but at 35-years-old may not be the best fit with this squad.  He will still get the bulk of DH at bats. Randal Grichuk (.245-25-61) provides a steady presence in RF.

Setting the table in the number-one and number-two spots should be Lourdes Gurriel, Jr. at 2B and Drury at 3B (that changes, of course, when Guerrero comes up).  At shortstop and batting down in the order will be free-agent signee Freddy Galvis (.248-13-67) – in his eighth MLB season. SS could eventually go to Gurriel (particularly if, for example, Guerrero comes up t0 play third and Drury moves to 2B).

In 2018, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. tied an MLB record with 11 consecutive multi-hit games (July 11-29). During the steak, he hit .500 (25-for-50), with three home runs, nine RBI and seven runs scored.

Other in the lineup should include: CF Kevin Pillar, and outstanding defender , who hit .252-15-59, with 14 steals a year ago; 23-year-old C Danny Jansen (a solid defender, who hit .247-3-8 in 31 games for the Blue Jays and .275-12-58 in 88 games at Triple A); and  an anticipated LF platoon of lefty Bill McKinney (.252-6-13 in 38 games) and righty Teoscar Hernandez (.239-22-57  in 134 contests. )  The Blue Jays are also waiting for prospects like infielder Bo Bichette and OF Anthony Alford to be ready to the big league club.  Patience may be a key word for Blue Jays fans in 2018; but the future could be exciting.

Marcus Stroman will lead the Jays’ staff.  Photo by apardavila

In the age of power arms leading MLB rotations, the Blue Jays seem to be falling short.  Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez are set to lead the staff. Stroman is a ground ball pitcher – coming off some shoulder and blister concerns. He went 4-9, 5.54 last season, fanning 77 batters in 102 1/3 innings.  He did pitch 200+ innings in both 2016 and 2017 and the Blue Jays need a bounce back. Sanchez also has had health issues.  He was 15-2, 3.00 in 30 2016 starts – but, over the last two seasons, has gone 5-9, 4.72 in just 28 starts.  Again, the Blue Jays need a recovery. Free-agent signee Matt Shoemaker is also pointed toward the rotation. A 16-game winner in 2015, he’s also faced health issues and went 8-5, 4.63 – but only threw a total of 108 2/3 innings over the past two seasons.  Another bounce back needed. Starting to see a trend?   Other potential starters include free-agent signee Clay Bucholz (7-2, 2.01 for the Diamondbacks – coming back from 2017 flexor tendon surgery);  Clayton Richard (7-11, 5.53 for the Padres); Ryan Borucki (4-6, 3,87 in 17 starts for the Blue Jays); and Sean Reid-Foley (2-4, 5.13 in seven starts.) Borucki seems like a pretty good bet – having pitched a total of 174 2/3 innings for the Blue and their Triple A affiliate last season.  As you can see, the Blue Jays need their rotation candidates to either turn it around or turn it up.

In the bullpen, veteran Ken Giles (4.65 with 26 saves in 26 opportunities) is set.  Giles, at 28-years-old, has 160 saves on his resume and should handle the job.   Still, his 4.65 earned run average is a regression from his 2.30 of 2017. Bounce back anyone? Other bullpen arms should include: Ryan Tepera (5-5, 3.62 in 68 appearances); David Paulino (after a 2017 80-game suspension and elbow issues, but with a mid-90s heater); and Tim Mayza (2-0, 3.28 in 37 appearances).  Mayza, a southpaw who fanned 40 batters in 35 2/3 innings, is intriguing.

Overall, the Blue Jays have some high-potential youngsters in the lineup – who still must prove themselves. Even if the bulk of those youngster come through, the pitching staff still has too many question marks.  They are building toward and exciting young squad, but they are not there yet.

KEY OFF-SEASON MOVE

Not a lot to choose from here. BBRT will go with Clay Bucholz, signed as a free-agent (D-backs) and coming back from 2017 arm surgery.  Bucholz showed signs of recovery this past season, going 7-2. 2.01 in 16 starts (98 1/3 innings) for Arizona.  The two-time All Star could provide a stabilizing force in the Blue Jays’ rotations.

PLAYER TO WATCH

Gotta be Vlad Guererro Jr.  Once he comes up, he can be (the Blue Jays hope) the face of the franchise. Just 20-years-old, Guerrero is living up to his Hall of Fame genes.  In three minor-league seasons (276 games), he hit’s hit .331, with 41 home runs and 200 RBI.  Just as important, he’s put up 146 walks to 135 strikeouts – and a .414 on-base percentage. Further, in the tough Arizona fall League (2018), he hit .351 in 19 games.  Wow!  When he comes up, keep your eyes open.  

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ORIOLES – FIFTH Place

Things are not looking good in Baltimore – unless  you are a major fan of crab cakes.  Last season, the Orioles gave up the most runs in MLB (824).  In fact, they were the only team to surrender at least 800 runs. They were also the only team with an earned run average of 5.00 or higher (5.18).  On the offensive side of the game, they finished 27^th out of thirty teams (and last in the DH-boasting AL) in runs scored (627) – one of only six teams to score less than 650 runs.  Unfortunately, for Baltimore fans, things don’t look much brighter for 2019.  The team went 47-115 in 2018 – and I wouldn’t expect a lot more in the season ahead.

Let’s start with the pitching. The Oriole’s rotation looks to be: Dylan Bundy (8-16, 5.45); Andrew Cashner (4-15, 5.29); Alex Cobb (5-15, 4.90); David Hess (3-10, 4.88); and Yefry Ramírez (1-8, 5.92).  All righties and all with 2018 ERA’s of at least 4.88. Also in the mix are: Mike Wright (4-2, 5.55) and newcomer, free-agent Nate Karns (coming off 2017 surgery and 2018 elbow issues), who missed the entire 2018 season. Overall, the Orioles starting staff put up a MLB-worst 5.48 ERA last seasons.  Outlook for 2019?  You have to expect some uptick in pitching.  Consider where some of these starters were in 2017): Dylan Bundy (13-9, 4.24); Andrew Cashner (11-11, 3.40); and Alex Cobb (12-10, 3.66).

Richard Bleier, career MLB ERA (111 games) of  1.97.  Photo by Keith Allison

The bullpen will be lead by closer Mychal Givens (0-7, 3.99 with nine saves). Others likely to play significant roles in the pen are Richard Bleier, Paul Fry, Miguel Castro and Tanner Scott. There is some hope here.  Bleier (3-0, 1.93 in 31 appearances) has a 1.97 ERA in 111 appearances over three MLB seasons. The Orioles’ most reliable arm however is recovering from 2018 surgery (but has pitched in Spring Training). Fry was 1-2, 3.35 in 35 appearances; Castro was 2-7, 3.96 in 63 appearances; and Scott (despite a 5.40 ERA) fanned 76 batters in 53 innings.

In 2018, the Orioles scored the fewest runs in the American League (622) – and Baltimore batsmen put up the unenviable combination of the fourth most-strikeouts (1,412) and fewest walks (422).  A bit more plate discipline might be in order.

Looking at the lineup, the 3-4-5 spots are likely to go to LF Trea Mancini (.242-25-58); DH Mark Trumbo (.261-17-44 in 90 games); and 1B Chris Davis (.168-16-49).

Chris Davis’ .168 average was the lowest in MLB history for a qualifying batter.

At the top of the order will be CF Cedric Mullins (.235-4-11 in 45 games) and, perhaps the Orioles’ most valuable player, 2B Jonathan Villar (.260-14-46, with 35 steals, for the Brewers and O’s). The Orioles may also looking for some help from D.J. Stewart in right field.  The 25-year-old has hit 49 home runs in four minor league seasons – but hit just .250. Also a possibility in RF Joey Rickard (.244-8-23 in 79 games). In three MLB seasons, the 28-year-old has hit  .252-17-61 in 275 games. Holding up the bottom of the order should be: 3B Renato Nunez (.275-7-20 in 60 games) and SS Richie Martin (who hit .300-6-42 at Double A).   A bright spot might be 24-year-old catcher Chance Cisco – who has hit just .197  in 73 MLB games – but has had a strong spring and has hit .306 over six minor league seasons.

KEY OFF-SEASON MOVE

The Orioles used the top pick in the December 2018 Rule 5 Draft to pick up 23-year-old SS Richie Martin from the Oakland A’s.  A 2015 first-round pick, Martin hit .257 in four minor league seasons – but .300-6-42, with 25 steals at Double A Midland last season.  Given the Orioles’ situation, he could end up the starting shortstop in 2018.

PLAYER TO WATCH

In 2018, DH Chris Davis his .168-16-49 in 128 games.  Here’s a guy who just three seasons ago (2016) hit 38 home runs. He also has a 50+ HR season and a pair of 200+ strikeout seasons on his resume.  I’m anxious to see what happens next.

COMING UP – THE AL CENTRAL

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The season is almost upon us and it’s time for some BBRT predictions. Things, of course, can change – particularly since there are still some “difference makers” out there on the free-agent market (Like Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel). Over the coming week, BBRT will look at each MLB Division, and then wrap up with predictions for the major awards (ROY, CYA, MVP).

We’ll start with the National League – it is the “Senior Circuit” after all – and move from East to West.   After each divisional predicted order of finish – for those who want more detail or justification – I’ll move on to a team-by-team evaluation.  Keep in mind, these are just BBRT’s opinions and conjecture – not the result of any inside insight or info.

For the NL Central, click here.

For the NL West, click here.

For the AL East, click here.

For the AL Central, click here.

For the AL West, click here.

For the major awards, click here.

NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST

Nationals (Division Champions)

Phillies (Wild Card)

Mets

Braves

Marlins

A rotation headed by Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and newcomer Patrick Corbin – plus a deep lineup (even without Bryce Harper) should bring Washington the East Division crown.  The Phillies – after adding Bryce Harper, Jean Segura, Andrew McCutchen and J.T. Realmuto – signaled they are serious about contending.  And, they will.  Their pitching may fall just a bit short of the Nationals, but they do have some solid young arms.  If Philadelphia goes out and gets Dallas Keuchel, this could be a real dog fight. The Mets have a solid pitching staff (led by Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Zack Wheeler and free-agent signee closer Edwin Diaz).  I just don’t think they added enough offense to catch the Nationals or Phillies.  The Braves have a solid offense, but need more pitching (particularly with Mike Foltynewicz’ health concerns).  The Marlins just don’t have the horses for this race.

COME BACK TOMORROW – FOR THE NL CENTRAL.

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NATIONALS – First Place

Max Scherzer again leads the Nationals’ staff.
Photo by Keith Allison

The Nationals, who underachieved (82-80) in 2018, and then lost six-time All Star Bryce Harper (.249-34-100) to free agency, appear well-positioned to reclaim the top spot in the NL East – thanks, in most part, to the strength of their pitching.

It all starts with a rotation with a penchant for missing bats.  Three-time Cy Young Award winner Max Scherzer last season went 18-7, 2.53 – and fanned 300 hitters in 220 2/3 inning (12.2 K’s per nine). Next up is Stephen Strasburg (10-7, 3.74), who fanned 156 in 130 innings (10.8 K’s per nine). New to the rotation is southpaw free-agent (D-backs) and 2018 All Star Patrick Corbin, who won 11 (versus seven losses), put up a 3.15 ERA and whiffed 246 batters in 200 innings. The rotation is rounded out by free-agent signee (Braves) Anibal Sanchez (7-6, 2.83), who fell just two strikeouts short of nine-per–nine (135 K’s in 136 2/3 innings) and, possibly, Joe Ross, who is coming back after 2017 Tommy John Surgery.

The bullpen is led by lefty closer Sean Doolittle (3-3, 1.60, with 25 saves last season).  How reliable is the Nationals’ ninth-inning guy?  In the past two seasons, Doolittle is 49-for-52 in save opportunities. Other pen notables include free-agent signee Troy Rosenthal, who has a 99-mph fastball and 121 saves on his resume, but missed the 2018 season recovering from Tommy John surgery; Justin Miller (7-1, 3.61 in 51 games); Matt Grace (1-1, 2.87 in 56 games); Koda Glover; and Kyle Barraclough.  Overall, expect this group to be handed plenty of leads to protect.

There are a number of new faces in what looks to be a deep lineup.  This is particularly true “up the middle.”  At catcher, the Nats picked up 2018 AL All Star Yan Gomes from the Indians (trade) and signed free agent (Braves) Kurt Suzuki.   The stat lines for these two are .266-16-48 (Gomes) and .271-12-50 (Suzuki).  Last season, the Nationals got a .214 average with 12 home runs and 60 RBI out of their catching corps. At the keystone sack, free-agent signee (Dodgers) Brian Dozier takes over.  While Dozier went just .215-21-72 in 2018, the one-time Gold Glover has topped 20 home runs in five straight seasons, with a high of 42 in 2016.  He played much of 2017 with a troubling bone bruise (knee) and looks ready to bounce back.  In center field there is top prospect 21-year-old Victor Robles, a speedy plus-defender, who hit .288-3-10 in 21 games after a September call up (and is considered a Rookie of the Year candidate by many). Joining Robles in the outfield will be 20-year-old Juan Soto. The left-handed swinger hit .292, with 22 long balls and 70 RBI in 116 games in his rookie season. Not bad for a teenager.  The final garden spot will go to Adam Eaton, who went .301-5-33, with nine steals in 95 games a year ago.

Adding to the offensive fire power will be 3B Anthony Rendon (.308-24-92, with an NL-leading 44 doubles) and classic table-setter SS Trea Turner (.271-19-73, with a league-topping 43 steals). This is a pair of proven run producers – and Rendon could easily be in the MVP picture. The Nationals are hoping veteran 1B Ryan Zimmerman can rebound from 2018 health issues (.264-13-51 in 85 games in 2018, after .303-36-108 in 2017). If the 34-year-old can’t go every day, look for Matt Adams (.239-21-57 in 121 games) to pick up the slack.

Overall, the Nationals’ power-pitching should carry them back to the top of the NL East – and there is plenty of offensive potential to back that up (even without Bryce Harper).

KEY OFF-SEASON MOVE

Some would say letting Bryce Harper leave via free agency was the most significant off-season move by the Nationals.  BBRT is going with the signing of number-three starter Patrick Corbin. Corbin was 11-7, 2.15 with the Diamondbacks a year ago. He lengthens the top-end of the Nationals’ rotation.

PLAYER TO WATCH

BBRT will be watching CF Victor Robles. The 21-year-old went .276-2-14, with 19 steals in three minor league stops last season – before going .288-3-10 in 21 September games for the Nationals.  No question about his defensive skills, but it will be interesting to see how his bat fares in a full MLB season.

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PHILLIES – Second Place

Bryce Harper – Big score for the Phillies.

Bryce Harper (free agent), Jean Segura (trade), Andrew McCutchen (free agent), J.T. Realmuto (trade). This off season, the Phillies proved they were serious about winning. Of course, it all centers on Harper, who will take over right field.  He hit only .249 a year ago (after .319 in 2017), but the six-time All Star and 2015 NL MVP popped 34 home runs, scored 103 times and drove in 100 tallies.  He also walked a league-leading 130 times – turning that .249 average into a .393 on-base percentage. Harper will be joined in the outfield by newcomer (LF) McCutchen – who should improve the garden defense.  The 2013 NL MVP doesn’t carry the bat he once did, but still brings 20-homer pop (.255-20-65 a year ago).  CF looks to belong to a combination of Odubel Herrera and Roman Quinn; with Herrera providing the better offense (.255-22-71) and Quinn superior on defense.

J.T. Realmuto is another key addition.  The 2018 All Star (.277-21-74), acquired in a trade with the Marlins, solidifies the backstop position. The Phillies have plenty of additional punch with 25-year-old 1B Rhys Hoskins (.246-34-96) still having plenty of upside and Maikel Franco (.270-22-68) at the other corner. Newcomer Jean Segura will handle shortstop and set the table for the boppers (.304 with ten homers and 20 steals in 2018). Look for Cesar Hernandez at the keystone sack (.253-15-60, with 19 steals).

The Phillies have a lineup that can challenge the Nationals, but they may fall a bit short on the mound.  A year ago, the Phillies’ 4.14 ERA was 11^th in the NL and they didn’t do much to upgrade the staff.

WHY THE 2018 PHILLIES PHADED?

The Phillies’ pitching staff put up a 3.85 earned run average before the All Star break (and the team was 11 games over .500) and then slumped to 4.56 and 13 games under .500 post-break. The drop off was particularly significant in the back end of the rotation:  Nick Pivetta went from a 4.58 ERA in the first half to 5.05 in the second half; Vince Velasquez went from 4.39 to 5.68; and Zach Elfin from 3.15 to 5.76. Keep an eye on how the staff holds up in the second half of this season.

At the top of the all-righty rotation will be Aaron Nola – at 25-years-old a true ace (17-6, 2.37, with 224 K’s in 212 1/3 innings). The number-two slot goes to veteran Jake Arrietta (10-11, 3.96). These two will be followed by Nick Pivetta (7-14, 4.77), Vince Velasquez (9-12, 4.85) and Zach Elfin (11-8, 4.36).   A number of analysts have pointed to the potential of the arms at the back end of the rotation, I just don’t see enough there to close the gap on the Nationals.  Then again, Dallas Keuchel is still out there.

Nine different relievers notched saves for the Phillies a year ago.  That worries me (I prefer more defined roles in the pen).  Still, there is talent and I expect free-agent (Yankees) signee David Robertson (8-3, 3.23 with five saves) and returnees Seranthony Dominguez (2.95 with 16 saves) and Hector Neris (5.10 with 11 saves) to all be asked to record “big outs.”  And, of course, as I write this, Craig Kimbrel is still out there. (Although I think the Phillies may be done spending for this season.)

Overall, the Phillies should score more and win more, but BBRT is not sure they have the pitching to keep pace with the Nationals.

KEY OFF-SEASON MOVE

This one’s easy – Bryce Harper (six-time All Star and 2015 NL MVP) was the prize. 

PLAYER TO WATCH

Keep an eye on Nick Pivetta.  The Phillies need him to deliver on his potential – a mid- to upper-90’s fast ball and a crisp curve.  He has shown signs, notching 188 strikeouts in 164 innings last season. If he can improve on his 7-14, 4.77 mark, the Phillies could move a bit closer to the Nationals.

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METS – Third Place (tie)

I’ve got the Mets and Braves pretty much finishing in a dead heat for third place – the Braves counting on their run producers and the Mets on their run prevention.

Jacob deGrom … could use a little more run support.

For the Mets, the key is pitching and it starts with 2018 NL Cy Young Award winner Jacob deGrom, who put up an MLB-best 1.70 earned run average and fanned 269 batters in 217 innings.  How important is it for the Mets to improve their offense (more on this later)?  Despite those numbers, deGrom won only ten games (nine losses) in 32 starts. The number-two spot in the rotation goes to Noah Syndergaard. The 6’6” righty went 13-3, 3.03 in 2018, with 155 strikeouts in 154 1 /3 innings. And there is plenty more behind the front two. Zack Wheeler went 12-7, 3.31 in 29 starts. He went 9-1, with a 1.68 ERA after the All Star break and seems poised for an even better season in 2018.  Southpaws Steven Matz and Jason Vargas, who both have the potential to turn in solid seasons, round out the starting five.  Matz was 5-11, 3.97 a year ago and (like deGrom) deserved much better. Vargas was 7-9, 5.77 for the Met last season, but won 18 games for the Royals.

In games in which he gave up two or fewer earned runs, Steven Matz won three, lost four and had eight no decisions.  

If you think the starting rotation looks good, consider what the Mets did to bolster the bullpen in the off-season. They signed free-agent closer Edwin Diaz, who posted 57 saves and a 1.96 ERA for the Diamondbacks (124 whiffs in just 73 1/3 innings).  They also brought back Jeurys Familia – who started 2018 as the Mets closer and had 17 saves before being traded to Oakland in July.  How much does he bring back to the Mets?  Familia had 51 saves as recently as 2016.  Other key bullpen arms will be Robert Gsellman (6-3, 4.28 with 13 saves in 68 appearances) and Seth Lugo (3-4, 2.66 in 54 games). When the Mets hold the lead after six innings, they should be in good shape to pick up the win.

DON’T TAKE OFFENSE … BUT THESE NUMBERS ILLUSTRATE THE PROBLEM

In 2018, the Mets scored the fourth-fewest runs in the National  League – and had no batters reach 150 hits, 30-home runs, 80 runs scored nor 90-RBI. The highest batting average among Mets to qualify for the batting title was Brandon Nimmo’s .263.

The Mets’ Achilles heel last season was offense. Surgeries on both heels cost them their most proven run producer – Yeonis Cespedes – most of last season; and his status for 2019 is not clear.  The Mets took steps to address that issue, signing free agents Robinson Cano (Mariners), Wilson Ramos (Phillies) and Jed Lowrie (A’s).  Cano, of course, is coming off an 80-game suspension, but is a proven performer. He hit .303, with ten home runs and 50 RBI in just 80 games a year ago – and has seven All Star selections, eight 20+ home run seasons and four 100-RBI campaigns on his resume.  He should help offset the time Cespedes misses. Ramos gives the Mets the reliable everyday catcher they have been seeking.  The 2018 All Star hit .306 with 15 home runs and 70 RBI in 111 games last season.  Lowrie may be the choice at 3B after a .267-23-99 seasons with the A’s. Amed Rosario (.256-9-51, with 24 steals) will be back at short. Todd Frazier (.213-18-59) and Jeff McNeil (.329-3-19 in 63 games) will also see some infield playing time. .

Looking to the outfield, LF Michael Conforto (.243-28-82) will provide some middle of the lineup pop, as should anticipated 1B Peter Alonso. In 2018, the 23-year-old prospect hit .285-36-119 in 132 games at Double A and Triple A. Brandon Nimmo (.263-17-47) should hold down RF and the lead off spot. Others in the OF mix are 2014 Gold Glover Juan Lagares, Rajai Davis and Carlos Gomez.

The Mets clearly have the pitching to contend. The offense remains the question mark.

KEY OFF-SEASON MOVE

Hard to go wrong picking a guy who saved 57 games in 61 opportunities, put up a 1.96 earned run average and fanned 15.2 batters per nine.  The Mets’ most significant move had to be signing Edwin Diaz.

PLAYER TO WATCH

BBRT will be watching the progress of Peter Alonso – .285-26-119 in 132 minor league games last season; and a .290 average with 59 home runs over three minor league seasons (255 games).  This 24-year-old has the potential to reshape the Mets’ lineup.

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BRAVES – Third Place (tie)

The young Braves surprised a lot people by taking the NL East title one year ago.  Youth again will be served in Atlanta – and generate plenty of offense.  I’m just not sure the pitching will be strong enough to repeat.

Freddie Freeman , steady power source. Photo by dougandme

The Braves have a solid nucleus of young players starting with 21-year-old LF Ronald Acuna, Jr. (2019 NL Rookie of the Year), who put up a .293-26-64, 16 SB season, and 22-year-old 2B Ozzie Albies, who went .261-24-72 with 14 steals. OF Ender Inciarte (just 28 and entering his sixth major league season) won his third consecutive Gold Glove in center and put up a .265-10-61, 28-steal stat line. SS Dansby Swanson (the number-one draft pick in 2015) continues to improve his defense and launched 14 long balls last season. With a bit more plate discipline (44 walks and 122 whiffs a year ago), he could add some spark to the lineup.

The Braves balance this youth with solid and stable veterans.  Bringing back veteran OF Nick Markakis (35-years-old and entering his 14^th MLB season) was a plus.  Markakis hit .297-14-93 last season and picked up his third Gold Glove. In 13 MLB campaigns, he’s never played less than 147 games, has hit .290 or better eight times and reached double-digit home runs in all but two seasons.  He will continue as a steadying influence on the youngsters in the lineup. Left-handed hitting veteran Freddie Freeman (.309-23-98) will provide plenty of offense at first base and another veteran, free-agent signee Josh Donaldson, will play at the opposite corner. Donaldson had a tough 2018 (shoulder, calf and arm issues) – playing in only 52 games (Indians/Blue Jays), but he is a three-time All Star, who has topped 30 home runs  in three of the past four seasons. Tyler Flowers and free-agent signee Brian McCann will handle the catching.

The Braves also boast an all under-30 rotation led by righty Mike Foltynewicz (13-10, 2.85) and southpaw Sean Newcomb (12-9, 3.90).   However, late in Spring Training the Braves announced that “Folty” may not be ready by Opening Day.  Ouch.  Among the Braves other projected starters are the reliable Julio Teheran (9-9, 3.94 a year ago) and Kevin Gausman (5-3, 2.87 in ten starts for the Braves, after coming over from the Orioles, where he was 5-8, 4.43). Hoping to round out the rotation is 23-year-old right-hander Touki Toussaint (gotta love that name), who came up in August last season and went 2-1, 4.04 in seven games – five starts.  Toussaint showed swing-and-miss stuff, fanning 66 in 65 innings for the Braves. (He went 9-6, 2.38 at Double and Triple-A last season – with 163 K’s in 136 1/3 innings.)  The Braves lack a proven ace, but – given their lineup and a bullpen that includes closer Aroldys Vizcaino (2-5, 3.11 with 22 saves), A.J.  Minter (3.23 in 65 games), Darren O’Day (3.60 in 20 games), Dan Winkler (3.43 in in 69 games) and Jonny Venters (3.61 in 50 games for Blue Jays and Braves) – they should be competitive.  Still, they won’t surprise as many people this year – and both the Nationals and Phillies look to be in better position to make the post season.

KEY OFF-SEASON MOVE

The Braves were relatively quiet this off season, but picking up Josh Donaldson to handle the hot corner could prove to be a real plus. Donaldson is coming off a difficult season, with shoulder and calf injuries limiting him to 52 games and a .246-8-23 line.  Over the previous three campaigns, he hit .285, with 111 home runs.  Donaldson’s on a one-year contract, so he has plenty of incentive to bounce back. That potential and his veteran presence should bolster this young Atlanta squad.

PLAYER TO WATCH

BBRT is going with RHP Touki Toussaint here.  Toussaint, with a 98-mph fastball and a plus curve, could surprise a lot of hitters.  The key will be command.  He walked 21 batters in 29 MLB innings last season (just 53 in 136 minor league frames, however).  Side note:  The Braves face a similar situation with Sean Newcomb, who went 12-9, 3.90 a year ago – but walked 81 batters in 164 innings. He also fanned 160. In two MLB seasons, Newcomb has walked 138 batters in 264 innings – 4.7 walks per nine frames.  If he can improve his command of the strike zone, Newcomb could be a solid number-two in the rotation. 

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MARLINS – Fifth Place

The Marlins had one All Star in 2018 – catcher J.T. Realmuto – and he’s now a Phillie.  The Fish are rebuilding – and they still have a ways to go (they did make some interesting splashes in the international talent pool).  This will be another long year in Miami.

They did add a couple of veteran free agents in OF Curtis Granderson and infielder Neil Walker (who last year spent time at 1B, 2B, 3B, RF and LF for the Yankees).   Walker, 33-years-old, had a tough year in New York (.219-11-46 in 113 games), but has shown better in the past and does give the Marlins lineup flexibility. Granderson, at 38-years-old, is showing some signs of injury issues.  In 2018, he went .242-13-38 in 123 games.  Both should see notable playing time (Walker probably at both corner infield spots), as the Marlins juggle the lineup.

In 2018, the Marlins scored the fewest runs in the National League (589) and gave up the second-most tallies (809) – for the NL’s worst run differential at minus-220.

Starlin the Marlin. Photo by dougandme

Others likely to see plenty of playing time include 2B Starlin Castro (.278-12-54), who still has plenty of life in his bat; SS J.T. Riddle (.231-9-36), a plus defender, who may split time with Miguel Rojas (.252-11-53); 3B Brian Anderson (.273-11-65), who could also see time in the OF if 3B Martin Prado (.244 in 54 games) is healthy;  and outfielders Lewis Brinson, Austin Dean and Peter O’Brien (who all still have to prove themselves at the MLB level).  Catcher looks to go to newcomer Jorge Alfaro, who went .262-10-37 in 108 games for the Phillies. (Note: Alfaro suffered a knee injury in Spring Training and may not be ready for Opening Day.)

There is a little some potential on the mound – particularly among the starters, where 27-year-old Jose Urena went 9-12, 3.98 (following a 14-7, 3.82 season in 2017) and 23-year-old Sandy Alcantara showed a high-90’s heater in a September call up (2-3, 3.44 with 30 strikeouts in 34 innings).  Others looking for a spot in the rotation include: Wei-Yin Chen (6-12, 4.79); Trevor Richards (4-9, 4.42); Dan Straily (5-6, 4.12); Pablo Lopez (2-4, 4.14); and Caleb Smith (5-6, 4.19). It should be an interesting competition.  I personally would really be working with Alcantara on consistency in the strike zone.

CAN’T I JUST STAY HOME?

Southpaw Wei-Yin Chen apparently likes home cooking. In 13 home starts last season, he went 5-3, with a 1.62 earned run average, 22 walks and 74 strikeouts in 78 innings.  In an equal number of road starts, he lasted 22 2/3 fewer innings and went 1-9, 9.27, with 37 strikeouts and 25 walks.

The bullpen has strike-zone problems of its own.  Miami relievers walked more batters than any other NL bullpen staff in 2018. Closer Drew Steckenrider went 4-4, 3.90 in 2018 (five saves). He showed swing-and-miss stuff (74 strikeouts in 64 2/3 innings), but his 27 walls created late-inning tension.    Southpaw Adam Conley (3-4, 4.09), a converted starter, should get some meaningful innings.  There are also Tayron Guerrero (1-3, 5.43, with 68 whiffs and 30 walks in 58 innings) and Nick Wittgren (2-1, 2.94 in 32 appearances.)

KEY OFF-SEASON MOVE

Picking up Neil Walker not only added some much-needed pop to the lineup (he has reached double-digits in home runs in nine straight seasons), but his versatility gives the Marlins some lineup flexibility (as they, perhaps, work to look at some young talent). It would not surprise BBRT to see Walker return to a .250-15-60 level season.

PLAYER TO WATCH

I’d keep an eye on right-hander Sandy Alcantara, whose fastball has reached triple digits on occasion (and is regularly in the high-90’s).  He was 6-3, 3.90 in two minor league stops last season – before his 2-3, 3.44 with the Marlins.  If he can master his command (at the MLB level last season, he fanned 30 in 34 innings, but also walked 23), he could put some victories up on the board.

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For Day Two – NL Central … Click Here. 

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Member: Society for American Baseball Research (SABR); The Baseball Reliquary; The Negro Leagues Baseball Museum.