All Star Break – Looking Back at Surprises, Disappointments, BBRT Preseason Predictions

Now that we’re at the All Star break, BBRT would like to take a look at the season so far – surprises, disappointments and how BBRT’s pre-season (mid-March) projections are holding up.

R.A. Dickey – Mets’ knuckleballer 2012’s biggest surprise.

First, MLB’s biggest surprise – this one is at the top of everybody’s list –  the Mets’s knuckleballer R.A. Dickey.  Dickey came into 2012 having never exceeded 11 wins in a season, with a 9-year record of 41-50, a career 4.33 ERA, a career average of 5.5 strikeouts per game, just 4 complete games and 1 shutout.  This season, Dickey leads the major leagues with 12 wins (versus only 1 loss), has a 2.40 ERA, is striking out 9.2 hitters per nine innings, has 3 complete games and 2 shutouts.

From a team perspective, BBRT is most surprised by the Baltimore Orioles, in second place in the tough AL East (no teams under .500 at the break) with a 45-40 record, despite being outscored 387 – 351, the third-worst run differential in the AL.  Notably, Tampa Bay (1/2 game behind the Orioles) is closing the gap and both Boston and Toronto are within striking distance of the O’s, so BBRT does not expect the surprising performance of the O’s (who haven’t had a winning record since 1997) to last.

Giants hope Lincecum rebounds from disappointing start.

Biggest disappointment?  BBRT gives the nod to the Giant’s Tim Lincecum – with a 3-10 record, a 6.42 ERA and league leadership in earned runs allowed (69) and wild pitches (10).  Lincecum came into the season with a 5-year career record of 69-41, a 2.98 ERA over 1,028 innings pitched, and two Cy Young Awards.   How far off his usual marks is the Giants’ ace?  In 2011, he gave up 66 earned runs in 217 innings.  In 2012, he’s already exceeded that total (giving up 69 earned runs) in only 96.2 innings.  In fact, Lincecum has already given up more earned runs through the break this year then in all but one of his previous 5 full seasons.  And, keep in mind, at 46-40,San Francisco is only ½ game out of first.

The most disappointing team goes to the Philadelphia Phillies – 37-50, in last place, 14 games out and losers of 9 of their last ten games before the break.  This a team picked to top the NL East by most analysts, as well as BBRT – coming off a 102-win season in 2011, five straight division titles and 9 consecutive winning seasons.  What happened?  Injury took a significant toll – Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Roy Halladay, along with disappointing seasons by outfielder Shane Victorian and preseason potential Cy Young pick Cliff Lee.

Now, let’s go a little deeper in the areas of surprises, disappointments and BBRT’s mid-March predictions.

And, what a difference 80+ games can make.  Before the season opened, BBRT predicted competitors for the NY Cy Young were:  1) Cliff Lee (now 1-5, 3.98); 2), Roy Halladay (4-5, 3.98); 3) Cole Hamels (10-4, 3.20).  Oops!

So, let’s look at how things are going – and how BBRT did in March.   Surprises will be in green – disappointments in red.

AL East

BBRT’s predicted winner – the Yankees – have a firm hold on first place.  However, BBRT lists Michael Pineda as a disappointment.  BBRT saw Pineda (who has missed the entire season with injuries) as a key player in the Yankees’ dominance.  Ivan Nova’s 10-3, 3.92 record, however, is a surprise that offsets Pineda.

Baltimore in second place is a surprise, as BBRT predicted the Tampa Bay Rays would finished in the number-two spot (the Rays are in third, just a half-game out of second).   What does BBRT see ahead?  Yankees win it, followed by TampaBay, with Orioles dropping to fourth.

Another disappointment in the East is Boston’s Adrian Gonzalez – going from 2011’s .338, 27 HRs, 117 RBI season to .283-6-45 at the break.

AL Central

The White Sox, are the surprise here – thanks in great part to strong hitting from Paul Konerka and A.J. Pierzynski (who should have been all All-Star) and comeback seasons by Adam Dunn and Jake Peavy.

A notable individual surprise in the division is 23-year-old White Sox hurler Chris Sale, who hadn’t started a major league game previous to this season and now stands at 10-2, 2.19, with nearly a strikeout per inning.  With the positive addition of Kevin Youkilis, the Sox are in the race to stay.

The Tigers are a bit of a disappointment here, but not that big a one.  BBRT picked Detroit to lead from start to finish (behind Prince Fielder, Miguel Cabrera and Justin Verlander).  Early on, the Tigers showed some problems in the field, with their starting pitching and at the bottom of the lineup.  However, they are now 2 games over .500, just 3 1/2 back and won 7 of 10 before the break.  They will be in the hunt.

BBRT picked Cleveland to be a strong contender (second to the Tigers) and the Indians sit in second place at the break.  However, they will need to make a move or two or risk losing ground to the Tigers and Sox.  Final prediction – Sox hold off the Tigers, Indians drop to third.

AL West

Not much to surprise anyone here.  BBRT saw a dogfight between the Rangers and Angels and that seems to be where we are heading, with both teams boasting strong offenses and pitching staffs.  In March, BBRT saw the finish as Angels –Texas, with both teams making the playoffs.  Right now, they are flip-flopped and you can expect a competitive finish.

We have seen a notable disappointment in the division, in the form of Albert Pujols’ slow start.  Pujols has rebounded, but still is at just .268 (versus a .325 career average) with 14 HRs and 51 RBI.  That may be enough to help the Angels grab a wild card spot, but Pujols needs to pick it up if the Angels are going to catch the Rangers.  Year-end prediction – Rangers have just enough to hold off the Angels.

Mike Trout – potential ROY and MVP candidate?

A key surprise in this Division is young Mike Trout of the Angels at .341, 12 HRs, 40 RBI and 26 SBs – a potential combination ROY and MVP contender (only Fred Lynn and Ichiro Suzuki have won MVP and ROY in the same season).  Given Trout’s role in compensating for Pujols’ slow start, he has a chance.

NL East

The Washington Nationals have ridden a surprising starting pitching staff (Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmerman and Edwin Jackson to a major-league best 3.20 ERA, a 49-34 record and a four-game East Division lead.  Add to that the energy infusion of young Bryce Harper and you have a season-long contender.  This is not a total surprise, BBRT’s preseason prediction saw Washington with a winning record and fighting for a playoff spot, with the Braves taking the division.

What BBRT did not expect was the collapse of the Phillies (see the disappointment at the start of this post) and shortfall of the Brewers (with particularly disappointing results from Rickie Weeks and Randy Wolf).  Season’s end?   BBRT sees the Nationals and Braves close all the way, with the Braves winning the Division and Nationals as a Wild Card.

NL Central

The big surprise here for many people is seeing Pittsburgh in first, a game up on the Reds and 2 ½ on the Cardinals – thanks to Andrew McCutchen’s MVP-caliber performance and the stalwart pitching of James McDonald and A.J. Burnett (both among 2012’s surprises).  McDonald came into the season at 18-20 with a career 4.04 ERA (but having shown some promise) and, at the 2012 break, is 9-3, 2.37.  Burnett is a “comeback” surprise.  He’s had some good years in the past, but for 2010-11, he was 21-26 with an ERA north of 5.00 both seasons.  In 2012, he stands at 10-2, 3.68.

Right now, trailing the Pirates closely are the Reds and Cards.  The Cardinals, in particular, have shown some grit – overcoming the loss of Pujols.  Yadier Molina, David Freese, Matt Holliday and Carlos Beltran have picked up the slack.  And, there is a surprise here.  Lance Lynn, the Cards’ 25-year-old Rookie of the Year Candidate stands at 11-4 with a 3.41 ERA.

What does BBRT expect for the second half?  First, as predicted in March, the Pirates notch their first winning season since 1992.  However, it won’t be enough to hold off the Cards and Reds.  BBRT will stick with its March prediction, the Cards take the Division, followed by the Reds.

NL West

A notable surprise here, the Dodgers went into the break in first place (just ½ game up on the Giants), despite losing Matt Kemp for 51 games.  Pitching has helped keep the Dodgers in the hunt, particularly Clayton Kershaw (who has pitched much better than his 6-5 record – with a 2.91 ERA) and the Dodgers’ “surprise” Chris Capauno (9-4, 2.91 this year; 11-12, 4.55 in 2011; but an 18-game winner for the Brewers in 2005).

The Giants in second matches BBRT’s March prediction, despite Tim Lincecum’s decline.  Contributing factors are strong seasons from Melky Cabrera, Buster Posey and Pablo Sandoval – more important, strong starting pitching from Ryan Vogelsong, Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner and even a surprising resurgence (7 wins) from Barry Zito.

BBRT’s sees a disappointment in the West – the struggles of the Diamondbacks (BBRT’s March pick to win the Division).  The Diamondbacks have been helped by Paul Goldschmidt’s emergence as a Rookie of the Year candidate (.302, 12 HRs, 42 RBI), a solid season from Aaron Hill (.300, 11 HRs, 40 RBI) and what BBRT rates as a mild surprise, newcomer Jason Kubel’s .293, 15 HRs, 60 RBI performance going into the break.  The pitching has been adequate led by 25-year-old Wade Miley with 9 wins. The big disappointment forArizona?  Justin Upton, who – after last season’s .289, 31 HRs and 88 RBI – was expected to further mature and carry the offense.  This season, Upton stands at .273, 7 HRs and 37 RBI – respectable, but well below expectations.

Post All-Star break, BBRT sees the Giants winning the Division, with the Diamondbacks and Dodgers fighting for second – and Kemp’s return being just enough to keep the Dodgers ahead of the Diamondbacks.

Finally, BBRT’s Mid-Season Award Predictions:

AL MVP: 1) Robinson Cano (NYY); Josh Hamilton (TEX); Mike Trout (LAA).  BBRT’s preseason picks were:  Cano, Albert Pujols (LAA); Evan Longoria (TB).

NL MVP:  1) Joey Votto (CIN); 2) Andrew McCutchen (PITT); 3) Matt Kemp (LAD).  Preseason picks:  Justin Upton (AZ); Kemp; Votto.

AL Cy Young:  1) Jered Weaver (LAA); 2) Justin Verlander (DET); 3) David Price (TB).  Preseason picks were:  Weaver; Verlander; C.C. Sabathia (NYY); Price.

NL Cy Young: 1) R.A. Dickey (NYM); Gio Gonzalez (WASH);  Matt Cain (SF).   Preseason predictions:  Cliff Lee (PHIL), Roy Halladay (PHIL); Cole Hamels (PHIL). (Boy, did I miss this one.)

AL Rookie of the Year: Mike Trout (LAA); Yu Darvish (TEX).  Preseason picks:  Matt Moore TB); Jesus Montero (SEA).

NL Rookie of the Year:  1) Bryce Harper (WASH) ;  2) Lance Lynn (STL).  Preseason picks:  Bryce Harper; Julio Teheran (ATL).

So, there’s a look back and a few predictions forward.  Can’t wait to see what the rest of the season holds.