As always, baseball heats up as the season winds down.
Well, BBRT was wrong about the new Wild Card system. Back on March 18th, BBRT ranted about the new system (fearing it would open the door to an NHL- or NFL-style postseason, where it’s harder to miss the playoffs than to get in. BBRT, being old school, still would prefer two leagues of two divisions each (one league with two eight-team divisions and one with two seven-team divisions – or an eight- and seven-team division in each league), with only division champs making the playoffs. However, the new system does have its merits.
First, and most important, it does make the division championship more important. Finishing first means you can avoid that one-game, winner-take-all Wild Card playoff. That may, in fact, have spurred this year’s very active market as the trade deadline approached.
Second, it has kept things more interesting for more teams and fans. At the close of Saturday, September 15’s games, eightALteams and eight NL team were within 3 ½ games of a playoff spot (this includes division leaders).
Of course, the AL didn’t need the Wild Card race to spice things up. There are close and intense races for first place in all three divisions. Over in the NL, however, the division leaders had more breathing room, and the Wild Card race was drawing more attention.
Let’s take a look at what lies ahead on the schedule for the division contenders (as of Monday, September 17, a.m.).
AL East
Looks like the Al East is going down to the wire, with the Yankees heading into the final 16 contests with a one-game lead over the upstart Orioles and Tampa Bay a very long shot at five games out.
The Yankees have nine games at home and seven away left on the schedule – facing the Blue Jays (66-79) seven times. They also face the Twins (60-87) and Red Sox (66-81), both well under .500. Their most challenging series is a three-gamer at home against the surprising Oakland As – 84-62 and still in the AL West hunt.
The Orioles have a slightly tougher schedule, primarily due to the home / road split – seven games at home and nine on the road. The Orioles get the under-.500 Mariners (70-77), Blue Jays and Red Sox until the final three games of the season – a potentially tough three-game set in Tampa Bay (78-68).
The Rays, five out in the East Division race and four behind in the Wild Card competition, face a tougher slate of games. They do have 10 at home and six on the road – with six against the disintegrating Red Sox. But they also have four games against the White Sox (79-66 and fighting for the Central Division lead) in Chicago, and that final three-game set against the Orioles (82-64) at home.
From here, it looks like a combination of schedule and pennant race experience will keep the Yankees on top of the AL East, with Baltimore capturing a Wild Card spot. The Angels will pressure the Orioles, but have a much tougher schedule.
AL Central
Who would have thought that the White Sox would have the grit to hold on in the AL Central? A couple of pick-ups along the way (particularly the experienced Youkilis), Chris Sale’s prime-time performance and a surprising season from A.J,. Pierzynski have them heading into the final stretch two games up on the preseason favorite Tigers.
The remaining schedule, however, clearly favors the Tigers. They’ve got today’s critical make-up game at Chicago followed by a ten-game home stand. Then they finish up with six on the road – but those road games are against the Twins and Royals – both well under .500 and with little to play for. In fact, 13 of the Tigers last 17 games area against the Twins and Royals. They also have three against the Oakland As (84-62, with plenty to play for).
The White Sox, on the other hand, have a tough schedule ahead with eight at home and nine away. Those home games are no “walk in the Park,” with four against Tampa Bay (78-68) and today’s critical make-up game against the Tigers. On the road, they face off for three against the Angels (80-67.) They also have six games against the Indians (61-86) and three against the Royals (66-80).
From here, it looks like the Tigers prevail, with the White Sox just missing a Wild Card spot.
AL West
The AL West is finishing up in a real shootout, with the top three teams – Rangers, As and Angels facing each other multiple times.
The Rangers, currently holding a three-game lead, have seven home and nine away games left – with 13 of those against the second-place As (four in Texas, three at Oakland) and third-place Angels (three home and three away). They also have a breather with three at Seattle. Clearly, the Rangers control their own destiny.
The A’s have a very challenging schedule. On Tuesday, they start a stretch of 10 consecutive road games facing, in order: Detroit (77-68 in a Central Division fight with the White Sox); the Yankees (83-63 and battling for the AL East); and West Division-leading Texas (87-59). They finish up with six at home (three each against Seattle and Texas), but they may have faded from the race before then.
The Angels, have nine left at home and six on the road – and may be helped by their six tilts against the Mariners (70-77), three each at home and away. They also face the Rangers for six critical games (split evenly at home and away) and the White Sox for three at home.
Overall, the Angels have the easier schedule, but it’s not that much easier and not likely to be enough to overcome a 7 1/2 game deficit to the Rangers or even their 2 1/2 game Wild Card deficit to the Orioles ((all those Rangers games may do them in) – unless the Angels can win at least five of six against Texas. BBRT looks for the Rangers to hold on to first and the Angels to fall just short of Baltimore for a Wild Card spot.
NL East
Back in March, BBRT predicted the Nationals would contend for a Wild Card spot. However, the Nat’s current 5 ½-game lead over Atlanta was not expected. Ultimately, the East will place two teams in the playoffs.
The Nationals have 10 home and six road contests left – all of them against teams fighting for a Wild Card spot, but none against division leaders or the East’s second-place Braves.
Washington has three against the Dodgers (76-70); four against the Brewers (74-72); three against the Cardinals (76-71); and six against the Phillies (73-74). Even without Strasburg, BBRT sees the Nats holding on and make the playoffs.
The Braves have an easier schedule going forward, although road games outnumber home games nine to six. The opponents, however, are not as tough as those who will face off against the Nationals. The Braves have six against the East Division’s last-place Marlins (65-82); three against the second-to-last Mets (66-80); and three each against the Wild Card-chasing Phillies (73-74 and coming on) and Pirates (73-72, but fading in the second half).
The Phillies, who (it appears) made their move too late, have six games left at home and nine on the road – with six games (three home and three away) against the Division-leading (89-57) Nationals and three (at home) against the second-place Braves (84-63). They also have three each against the well under-.500 Mets and Marlins (65-82). Not a bad schedule, but the Phillies have just run out of time.
BBRT see the Nationals taking the East Division (easy call) and the Braves retaining their comfortable hold on a Wild Card spot – so Chipper Jones, appropriately, will bow out in the post season.
NL Central
Cincinnati is coasting with an 11-game lead, with the Central Division’s Pittsburgh, Saint Louis and Milwaukee all in the Wild Card hunt.
The Reds have six home and nine road games left and, while they hold their Central lead, they will also have a lot to say about the Wild Card race. The Reds have three games each against the Central Division’s Wild Card hopefuls the 77-70 Cardinals (at St. Louis); the 73-72 Pirates (at Pittsburgh); and the 74-72 Brewers (in Cincinnati). They also have a three-game set at home against the 76-71 Dodgers and three contests against the 58-88 Cubs.
The Cardinals have a pretty balanced schedule of nine home and six away games left – three each at home against a pair of division leaders (Nationals and Reds) and six against lowly Houston (48-99) and the Cubs. It looks like a good schedule for securing the final Wild Card spot, but they may a challenge from the Dodgers.
The Pirates, fading over the course of the second half, have nine home and eight away games left. Fortunately for the Pirates, the road games are against the Cubs (one), the Astros (3) and the Mets (four). They key series may be the September 18-20, three game set against the Brewers, also working to finish above .500 and, perhaps, sneak into the Wild Card. Pittsburgh finishes at home with six tough games against the Reds and Braves. BBRT sees the Pirates falling short of the Wild Card, but hanging on to break their 19-year under-.500 streak.
The Brewers go on the road for ten games (September 18-27), facing two Division leaders (Nationals, four games, and Reds, three games), as well as the Pirates (struggling, but with something to play for.) They finish with six at home against the Astros and Padres (71-76), but it may be too late by then. BBRT sees the Brewers sitting out the playoffs.
NL West
Despite Melky Cabrera’s suspension, the Giants – with a 7 ½ game lead over the Dodgers – seem destined to hang on to the Division lead. The question seems to be will it be the Dodgers or the Cardinals in the second Wild Card spot.
The Giants are about to begin a nice ten-game home stand, facing 58-87 Colorado (4 games); San Diego (3 games); and 72-74 Arizona (3 games). Then they go on the road to San Diego and Los Angeles (76-71). BBRT see the Giants staying atop the Division.
The Dodgers go on the road for nine games, including six against the first place Nationals and Reds and three against the Padres. They close out at home with three against the Rockies and the final three against arch-rival Giants. Tough call, given the Dodgers recent moves to strengthen their line-up and the Cardinals easier schedule. So BBRT sees the Dodgers and Cards tying for the final Wild Card spot and the one-game playoff depending on which team has the best starter available.
So, here is the BBRT call:
AL:
Division winners: Yankees, Rangers, Tigers
Wild Cards: Orioles, A’s
NL
Division Winners: Nationals, Giants, Reds
Wild Card: Braves, Cardinals/Dodgers (tie)
Watch BBRT for a look at the individual performances we’ll be watching as the season heats up and winds down
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