Here are a few April surprises – at least from BBRT’s point of view. This post doesn’t touch on them all, there have been plenty. For example, there is no commentary on Colorado’s first-place standing (at the end of April) in the NL West, Orioles’ first baseman Chris Davis’ .348–9–28 start, Roy Halladay’s early season difficulties, the Yankees’ unique triple play or the fact that the Tigers have three hurlers averaging better than a strikeout per inning. (Or for my fellow Twins fans, Carlos Gomez hitting .360 through April for the Brewers and Kevin Slowey with a 2.15 ERA, with six walks and 29 strikeouts in six starts for Miami.)
So, here are a handful of April “surprises’ that captured BBRT’s attention.
Philip Humber … 6 losses by the end of April.
Phil Humber – yes, he of the April 21, 2012, perfect game – started the 2013 tying a different kind of unique record. In the month of April, the Astros’ Humber started six games and ran up an 0-6 record (29 2/3 innings pitched, 7.58 ERA, 44 hits, 10 walks, five wild pitches). The only other starting hurler to notch six April losses was the A’s Dave Stewart in 1984, a year in which he went 7-14. Still BBRT is surprised to see a pitcher get six starts in a single month – to get a decision in every outing – and, of course, to lose them all. Humber can take solace in the fact that just three seasons after his 0-6 opening month, Stewart started a string of four consecutive 20-win seasons. Not likely for Humber, however, whose career ERA is north of five.
A surprising ten April saves for the equally surprising Bronx Bombers.
The Yankees … 16-10 in second place in the AL East.
The Yankees – without Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Curtis Granderson, from day one, and now Francisco Cervelli and Kevin Youkilis – are an early season surprise. BBRT really thought age and injuries would quickly drag the Bronx Bombers toward the bottom of the division. However, here they are in second place at the end of April, thanks to some individual surprises, particularly: Vernon Wells, who after two down years with the Angels, hit .300 with six home runs and 13 RBIs in April; and Travis Hafner, showing new life at age 36, sitting at .318-6-17. (Maybe there is something to the aura of the pinstripes.) Not surprising, Robinson Cano leads the NY offense (.327-7-17). On the mound, veterans Hiroki Kuroda, C.C. Sabathia and the ageless Andy Pettite (3-2, 2.86) and Mariano Rivera (10 saves, 1.74 ERA) lead the way. Still, despite the early season surprise, BBRT sees a Yankee fade as we hit the dog days of August.
Adam Wainwright … 3 walks (one intentional) against 43 strikeouts in 44 innings.
The Cardinals Adam Wainwright ran up a 4-2 record with a 2.03 ERA through April. Not surprising, he has true “ace” stuff. Surprising to BBRT is that Wainwright notched 35 strikeouts before issuing his first walk of the season – and that’s a record.
Toronto Blue Jays … already 8 ½ out.
The Blue Jays made a statement in the offseason – no more “wait until next year,” 2013 is THE year. They took advantage of the Marlins’ fire sale to add a quality lead off hitter and two proven starting pitchers: shortstop Jose Reyes and hurlers Mark Buehrle and Josh Johnson. Then they did some wheeling and dealing with the Mets to acquire 2012 Cy Young Award winner R.A. Dickey. In addition, they added Melky Cabrera to an offense that was welcoming back power hitters Edwin Encarnacion and a now-healthy Jose Bautista. Pre-season polls tabbed the Blue Jays East Division favorites.
Ouch! One month in and that Jays are at 10-17, 8 1/2 games behind division-leading Boston. What happened? It starts with Jose Reyes, who was hitting .395 with one home run, five runs scored, five RBI and five stolen bases after 10 games. Then a severe ankle sprain put him on the disabled list for an expected three months. Buehrle and Johnson are a combined 1-2, 6.57 in 9 starts; R.A. Dickey at 2-4, 4.50 and has looked more like the pitcher who went 41-50 from 2001-2011 than 2012’s 20-game winner; and PED-free Melky Cabrera is hitting just .250 with no home runs. Couple that with slow starts from just about the whole lineup and the Jays have dug a surprisingly deep hole. BBRT does expect Josh Johnson to right his ship, but .500 seasons from Buehrle and Dickey would not surprise.
Game changer for the Braves!
Justin Upton … prestigious power display.
.298, 12 homers, 19 RBI in April. Enough said. Well, one more surprise, the average distance of those 12 dingers? Each exceeded 400 feet, for an average of 423.5 feet. We all knew he’d be good for the Braves – just surprised that he’s this good this fast.
The Washington Nationals … popular pick to win the NL crown, now sitting at 13-14, a surprising 4 ½ games behind the Atlanta Braves.
The Nats’ problem appears to be a lack of offense. Despite a blistering start by Bryce Harper .(344-9-18 through April), the Nationals finished the month 12th in the league in runs scored (96), 13th in batting average (.234) and sixth in home runs (27). That lack of offense explains Stephen Strasburg’s surprising 1-4 record, despite a 3.13 ERA and 36 strikeouts in 37 innings pitched. With their depth of pitching – and the fact the some early bullpen issues seem to be working themselves out – BBRT expects the Nationals to remain in the hunt (and make the playoffs).
Boston … the first-place Red Sox.
Boston ended the 2012 season in apparent disarray, discontent and, according to some sources, outright animosity – finishing last in the AL East at 69-93, 26 games out. The goal for 2013 was to change the personality of the team – and that meant changing some personnel, from the manager (John Farrell replacing Bobby Valentine) on down. On the field, the Sox avoided some of the big name opportunities, going for steady, solid performers with equally solid clubhouse reputations. Among the additions that have paid dividends early:
1B-DH-C Mike Napoli who has driven in 27 runs in his first 26 games; Shane Victorino, out with a back issue now, but sporting a .292 average over 19 games; and reliever Kuji Uehara, with a 1.69 ERA and seven holds in 12 games. But, in reality, it’s been the core holdovers that have boosted the Sox – particularly strong performances from starters John Lester and Clay Bucholz (who went a combined 20-22 in 2012). Through April the pair are 9-0 – Buchholz, 5-0, 1.19 ERA and Lester, 4-0, 3.11. In addition, David Ortiz has come back with a vengeance hitting .500 (18 for 36) with three home runs and 15 RBI in his first nine games back in the lineup. Then there is Dustin Pedroia, hitting at a .337 clip with 16 runs scored and 12 RBI. It looks to BBRT that the surprising Red Sox will remain in the hunt in a tight AL East race.
Torii Hunter … .370 in 23 games.
There was a popular TV commercial that used the line, “You’re not getting older, you’re getting better.” That describes the surprising 37-year-old Torii Hunter, now patrolling right field for the (not surprising) first-place Detroit Tigers. In 2012, Hunter surprised us all with a .313-16-92 season (with nine steals) for the Angels. It was Hunter’s best average ever, and his fifth-highest RBI total in 16 seasons. In 2013, Hunter is off to a .370-1-12 start.
The Angels (9-17) and Josh Hamilton (.204 average, 32 strikeouts in 108 at bats).
It shouldn’t really be a surprise, the Angels have already proven that you can go deep – and expensive – into the free agent market without guaranteeing the post season. Still, when the Halos added Josh Hamilton to the Mike Trout, Albert Pujols, Mark Trumbo powerhouse, expectations were high (despite a somewhat iffy starting rotation minus Zack Greinke). Both Hamilton and the Angels have surprised with their April futility. Hamilton’s is hitting just .204, with 2 homers and 9 RBI going into May. Even with Hamilton’s slow start, the Angels rank in about the middle of the AL in offensive output. The pitching, however, ranks 14th (based on ERA) out of 15 teams – and, with ace Jered Weaver on the DL, things don’t look promising. Fact is, the Angels would have been better off spending some of the Hamilton money on pitching. Will they bounce back? Doubtful, unless they come up with some arms. Will Hamilton rebound. Probably, but he’ll likely fall well short of 2012’s .285-43-128 (but .280-35-102 would not surprise).
Josh Donaldson (.314, 2 HR, 20 RBI) and the Oakland A’s (16-12).
The 27-year-old Oakland third baseman (a converted catcher) has progressed dramatically in the field and at the plate since winning the third base job (after injuries to Brandon Inge and Scott Sizemore) last season. Still he came into the season with a .232 average in just 306 at bats in two seasons. Now, he’s not only hitting over .300, he’s driven in 20 runs (sixth in the AL) as of May 1 – and he’s showing solid leather at third base.
The A’s surprise is a little more complicated. BBRT expected the A’s young pitching (a record 54 wins from rookies a year ago) to falter a bit and, after notching the AL’s second-lowest ERA in 2012, the A’s ranked 12th through April. On the other hand, they led the AL in runs scored – despite standing a surprising 9th in home runs and 10th in batting average. Over time, BBRT thinks the pitching will pick up, but the run scoring will tick down and the A’s will finish third this season.
Shin-Soo Choo … impervious to pain.
The Reds wanted a leadoff hitter – and they picked up a good one in Shin-Soo Choo (through April, .337 – four homers – 11 RBI – 20 runs scored – 17 walks.) The surprise for BBRT is Choo has already been hit by a pitch 10 times. Ouch! That’s taking one – and then some – for the team.
Got any April surprises you’d like to share? BBRT welcomes your comment?
