BBRT’s 2019 Preview Week continues with our Day Six look at the final division to be reviewed – the American League East. Again, keep in mind things continue to change – there are still some “difference makers” out there on the free-agent market (like Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel), some positions are still undetermined (Joey Gallo?), injuries are still forcing moves (Matt Olson’s hand) and more. Now that we’ve gone through all the divisions, BBRT will wrap up (on Day Seven) with predictions for the major awards (ROY, CYA, MVP). Note: After the general comments, each team is reviewed in more detail. Keep in mind, these are just BBRT’s opinions and conjecture – not the result of any inside insight or info.
For the NL East Preview, click here.
For the NL Central, click here.
For the NL West, click here.
For the AL East, click here.
For the AL Central, click here.
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AL WEST
Astros
Athletics
Angels
Mariners
Rangers
The Astros lost three-fifths of their starting rotation to free agency or Tommy John surgery (37 wins, 86 starts, 500 innings) and are still pretty much everyone’s pick to win the West Division. That’s what happens when your rotation starts with Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole, Robert Osuna leads your bullpen and you’ve got a balanced lineup that is dangerous from one-through-nine. Houston – led by the likes of Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa and George Spring – tops the division again. The A’s offer a solid lineup with power in the middle (Khris Davis, Matt Chapman and Matt Olson), some tight defense and an uncanny ability to get the most out of a pitching staff. Look for them to be in the Wild Card race once again. There are lots of reasons to watch the Angels: Mike Trout’s all-around excellence; the fielding wizardry of Andrelton Simmons; and the wonder that is Shohei Ohtani. However, a shortage of pitching means you won’t be watching in the post season. Then there are the Mariners (rebuilding and not yet ready to content) and the Rangers (with some nice offensive fire power, but some real questions on the mound.)
ASTROS – First Place
You can’t go wrong picking the Astros, They should again finish atop the West – but it may be a little tougher this time around.
In 2018, the Astros logged MLB’s best team earned run average (3.11), while scoring MLB’s sixth most runs (797).
Justin Verlander will lead the Astros’ rotation.
Photo by Keith Allison 
The Astros lost starters Dallas Keuchel and Charlie Morton to free agency and Lance McCullers to Tommy John surgery. Together, those three went 37-20, 3.56 and, just as important, took up 86 starts and ate up 500 innings. At this point (remember, Keuchel is still out there), it appears their spots in the rotation will be drawn from among Colin McHugh (6-2, 1.99 in 59 relief appearances); Joshua James (2-0, 2.35 in six appearances); free-agent signee Wade Miley (5-2, 2.57 in 16 starts for the Brewers); and Brad Peacock (3.46 in 61 appearances). McHugh is a former starter (a 19-game winner in 2015), who has added a slider to his repertoire and upped his strikeout rate. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him step up and win 15 games. Peacock also is a former starter, who went 13-2, 3.00 in 2017 (34 appearances/21 starts). James is dealing with a right quad issue and may not be ready on Opening Day. There is potential here, but we’ll have to see how the new rotation plays out. Fortunately, Justin Verlander (16-9, 2.52 and 290 strikeouts in 214 innings) and Gerrit Cole (15-5, 2.88 and 276 strikeouts in 200 1/3 innings) will be back – a solid one-two foundation.
The bullpen will again be led by closer Robert Osuna (2-2, 2.37, with 21 saves). He’ll get plenty of support from Ryan Pressley (2-1, 2.54, with 101 whiffs in 71 innings for the Twins and Astros); Hector Rondon (205, 3.20 in 63 games, with 67 whiffs in 59 innings); and (if he’s not needed in the rotation), Brad Peacock (3-5, 3.46, with 96 strikeouts in 65 innings). Basically, the bullpen will again be in good hands. A word of caution, last season the Astros’ pen pitched the second-fewest innings of any relief staff (only the Indians’ relievers threw fewer). This season, the pen could be under more pressure and face a heavier workload.
In 2018, the Astros’ bullpen put up a 3.03 earned run average – the lowest of any MLB bullpen staff.
When it comes to the lineup, the Astros are about as stable – and qualified – as you can be. Let’s start with the returnees. CF George Springer (.265-22-71 in an off year) is back at lead off. The two-time All Star went .285-34-85 in 2017. In the two-spot, we are likely to see rising star, 25-year-old Alex Bregman (.286-31-103, with ten steals and a league-topping 51 doubles). Then there is three-time batting champion and 2017 AL MVP 2B Jose Altuve (.316-13-61, with 17 steals). He’s capable of improving his 2018 numbers across the board. Oh yes, he also has a Gold Glove on his resume. SS Carlos Correa will also hit in the middle of the order. He’s been dealing with some back issues and went just .239-15-65 a year ago. Like Altuve, he’s a plus-defender and capable of topping his 2018 offensive numbers (.285-20-90 would not surprise me).
There will be a newcomer in power spot. Free-agent (Indians) Michael Brantley should handle LF. He went .309-17-76 with 12 steals and should fit right in with the potent Astros’ offense.
In 2018, Astros batters fanned the second-fewest time of any AL team (1,197). This team puts the ball in play. Newcomer Michael Brantley shares that plate discipline, fanning just 60 times in 631 plate appearances
The remainder of the lineup should be Yuli Gurriel at 1B (.291-13-85); Tyler White at DH (.275-12-42 in 66 games); Josh Reddick in RF (.242-17-47). At catcher, free-agent Rich Chirinos (.222-18-65 in 118 games for the Rangers) and Max Stassi (.226-8-28 in 8 games) replaces departed free-agents Martin Mald0nado and Brian McCann. The change will be felt more on defense than offense.
In 2018, the Astros can no longer count on the dominating starting pitching of the past. However, they have a balanced lineup that puts the ball in play – and enough power and speed to gain their third consecutive division title. It won’t be as easy, though.
KEY OFF-SEASON MOVE
LF Michael Brantley (free-agent, Indians) is just the kind of player the Astros love – a combination of power, speed and the ability to put the ball in play. In 2018, he went .309-17-76, with 12 steals. He could improve on all those numbers hitting in this lineup.
PLAYER TO WATCH
Collin McHugh – who won 19 games and pitched 203 2/3 innings in 2015 – rejoins the starting rotation (after the losses of Dallas Keuchel, Charlie Morton and Lance McCullers). He put up a 1.99 ERA in relief (94 whiffs in 72 1/3 innings). It will be interesting to see how he adjusts to a return to the rotation. He has the stuff. Does he still have the stamina?
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A’s – Second Place
A year ago, the A’s surprised quite a few people by winning 97 games with a team that was not like “Cheers” (everyone didn’t know their names). This year, there won’t be as many surprises, but the A’s should be in the Wild Card hunt again – and they are developing some “name” stars, particularly in the everyday lineup.
Let’s look at some of the names you probably already know – and then some which may soon become more familiar.
Khris Davis … A’s bi gbopper. Photo by Keith Allison
First among the “well-knowns” is DH Khris Davis (the Khris/Chris Davis you want to have if you have a fantasy team), who went .247-48-123 a year ago – leading MLB in home runs. In three seasons with Oakland, Davis has hit 133 home runs and driven in 335 tallies. Pretty much “everyone knows your name,” too – Matt Chapman. The 25-year-old completed his second MLB season by earning his first Gold Glove (and putting up MLB’s best Runs Saved score on defense) at 3B and going .278-24-68 (with 100 runs scored) at the plate. At the other corner, 25-year-old Matt Olson put his name on his first Gold Glove and also hit .247-29-84. (Olson, however, came up with sore hand the day before this was written –and his status his unsure. If he is unable to go on Opening Day Matt Canha, who went .259-17-52, will step in.). Another familiar name, for many, is former Rangers’ high-level prospect Jurickson Profar (.254-20-54, with 10 steals), who was brought in via trade to handle second base.
Now, for some of the players who names you may be less familiar with, but who will contribute to the A’s season. In the outfield, with Nick Martini out until Mid-April, newcomer (free-agent) Robbie Grossman will likely start in left field. Grossman was .273-5-48, with a .367 on–base percentage for the Twins last season. I got to see him play often and he know how to work a count and get on base. Grossman will hold down the LF spot until Martini, who hit .296 for the A’s last season is ready. CF should go to a truly new-name player, Ramon Laureano. He should soon be a well-known name around the league. A plus-defender, Laureano, just 24-years-old, hit .288-5-19, with seven steals in 48 games for the A’s last season – after starting the year .297-14-35, with 11 steals in 64 games at Triple A. Nashville. The final outfield spot goes to Steve Piscotty, a nice power source (.267-27-88).
In the infield, joining Chapman, Olson and Profar will be steady shortstop Marcus Semien (.255-15-70, with 14 steals). Catcher is a bit unsettled, after the loss of Jonathan Lucroy (.241-4-51 in 126 games for the A’s) to free-agency. At this point, it appears Josh Phegley (.204-2-15 in 39 games) is penciled in. In six MLB seasons, the 31-year-old backstop has played in just 270 games. Note: The A’s did sign free-agent (Mariners) Chris Hermann, but will be starting the season on the 60-day IL (knee surgery).
In 2018, the A’s had 13 pitchers start five or more games – and only two start at least 20. The A’s lost a couple of key members of that starting rotation – Trevor Cahill and Edwin Jackson – to free agency. Cahill was one of only two A’s pitchers to get at least 20 starts (7-4, 3.76), while Jackson went 6-3, 3.33 in 17 starting assignments. Still, the A’s have shown the ability to get the most out of a pitching staff (combining a corps of starters and relievers to get important outs) – without a proven ace, or even a traditional 200-inning workhorse. The team’s 3.81 earned run average in 2018 was sixth-best in the AL and second-best in the West Division.
So, who will get the bulk of the starts this coming season? Mike Fiers looks to be number-one. He was 12-8, 3.56 in 31 starts for Detroit and Oakland a year ago. Following Fiers should be: Frank Montas (5-4, 3.88 in 13 games/11 starts); Dave Mengden (7-6, 4.05 in 22 games/17 starts); Chris Bassitt (2-3, 3.02 in 11 games/7 starts) and Marco Estrada (7-14, 5.64 in 28 starts for the Blue Jays, but an All Star in 2016). It wouldn’t be surprising to see the A’s expand their use of the Rays’ relief pitcher as an “Opener” strategy.
Speaking of relief pitchers, the A’s have a strong pen, led by elite closer Blake Treinen (9-2, 0.78, with 38 saves and 100 strikeouts in 80 1/3 innings). While they loss Jeurys Familia to free agency (back to the Mets), they brought in free-agent (Brewers) Joakim Soria (3-4, 3.12, with 16 saves in 2018, and with 220 career saves). Among the others who will be asked to get key outs will be returnees Fernando Rodney (3.36 with 25 saves for the Twins and A’s) and Yusmeiro Petit (3.10 in 74 games).
Overall, a well-balanced lineup, coupled with a deep bullpen and effective management of the pitching staff should be enough to bring the A’s in one spot behind the Astros. They’ll be in the Wild Card race again, but I’m betting on the Twins to edge them out.
KEY OFF-SEASON MOVE
The A’s are a team that depends on the bullpen for important outs. They lost a proven arm with strong late-inning experience in Jeurys Familia (who returned to the Mets via free agency). They replaced Familia, however, with Joakim Soria – an 11-year veteran with a 2.88 career ERA, 220 saves and 688 whiffs in 634 1/3 innings.
PLAYER TO WATCH
The A’s would love to have “ace” to head their rotation – and that pitcher could be Jesus Luzardo (12-6, 2.53, with 177 strikeouts in 152 2/3 innings in two minor league seasons). The 21-year-old has a mid-90’s fastball and a solid curve and is considered a top prospect. This March, the southpaw was shut down for four-to-six weeks due to rotator cuff issue – after giving up just one earned run and fanning 15 in 9 2/3 Spring Training innings. Keep an eye on his progress. He could be a key player in the A’s future.
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ANGELS- Third Place
Mike Trout … face of the Angels.Photo by Keith Allison
When you talk about the Angels, it all starts with CF Mike Trout (.312-30-85, with eight steals). Just 29-years-old, Trout is a seven-time All Star, a Rookie of the Year and a two-time MVP. As usual, the Angels can expect MVP-worthy performance out of their center fielder, but that won’t be enough to catch the Astros (nor, probably, the A’s).
Let’s look at the offensive cast surrounding Trout. Flanking him in the outfield will be Kole Calhoun (.208-19-57), who offers plus-defense, but whose offense has been on the decline – and dependable power source Justin Upton (.257-30-85, with eight steals).
In the infield, we’re likely to see a combination of free-agent Justin Bour at 1B (.227-20-59 for the Marlins and Phillies) and Albert Pujols (.245-19-64) at 1B; 25-year-old David Fletcher (.275-1-25 in 80 games as a rookie) at 2B; and veteran Zack Cozart (.219-5-18 in 58 games) at 3B. Cozart, however, has some health issues (calf) and may not be ready on Opening Day. If he’s not ready, we could see Tommy La Stella (.266-1-19 in 23 games for the Cubs). As you can see, the infield may be a bit unsettled. Except for SS, that is. Andrelton Simmons is both a defensive wiz (four Gold Gloves) and an offensive asset (.292-11-75, with 10 stolen bases).
Catcher belongs to free-agent signee Jonathan Lucroy (.241-4-51), while Shohei Ohtani should provide pop at DH (.285-22-61 in 104 games).
Last season, the Angels fit right into the middle of the American League: eighth in runs scored and eighth in runs surrendered. They, in fact, gave up just one more run (722) than they scored 721). That led to a near -.500 season (80-82). For 2019? More of the same. They should finish in the middle of the West.
Sixteen pitchers started for the Angels in 2018 and I expect the auditions will continue, as the Halos try to develop a more stable rotation. Andrew Heaney (9-10, 4.15, with a team-leading thirty starts) looked to be a lock. Heaney, however, has had elbow problems and may not be ready on Opening Day. It now looks like the Angels will put together a rotation from among: Trevor Cahill (7-4, 3.76 for Oakland); Jaime Barria (10-9, 3.41 in 26 starts for LA); Felix Pena (3-5, 4.18); and Tyler Skaggs (8-10, 4.02). Others getting a look include: free-agent Matt Harvey (7-9, 4.94 for the Mets and Reds); Felix Pena (4-5, 4.18); and, perhaps even, 21-year-old prospect Jose Suarez.
The bullpen looked, for a time, to have as many question marks as the rotation – but then, in late January, proven closer Cody Allen (27 saves for Cleveland last season and 149 over the past five years) signed with the Halos and roles began to fall into place. Getting the ball to Allen will be the likes of Cam Bedroisian (3.80 in 71 appearances); Ty Buttrey (3.31 in 16 appearances; and Justin Anderson (4.07 in 57 appearances).
KEY OFF-SEASON MOVE
Adding proven closer Cody Allen (between 24 and 34 saves in each of the past five seasons) will help stabilize the Angels’ bullpen.
PLAYER TO WATCH
Why not enjoy arguably the best player in the game – Mike Trout. If only he had a stronger supporting cast.
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MARINERS – Fourth Place
Want to know where the Mariner will finish in 2019? Consider their strategy: Gone are their leading home run hitter and RBI man (Nelson Cruz, free agent); saves leader (Edwin Diaz, trade); key setup man (Alex Colome, trade); starting SS and leading batting average (Jean Segura, trade); key member of the rotation (James Paxton, trade). The Mariners are rebuilding for the future, but it doesn’t appear 2019 will be the year of the future.
The new Mariners lineup will include some old faces, like LF Mitch Haniger (.285-26-83); 3B Kyle Seager (.221-22-78), who is likely out until June – leaving the hot corner to another returnee, Ryan Healy (.235-24-73); 2B Dee Gordon (.288-4-36, with 30 steals).
Edwin Encarnacion … one of the new faces in the Mariners’ lineup. Photo by Keith Allison
And, that’s that. Now the new faces. Taking over the middle of the lineup and likely sharing time at 1B and DH will be newcomers (both via trade) Edwin Encarnacion (.246-32-107 for the Indians) and Jay Bruce (,310-9-37 for the Mets). At the top of the order look for CF Mallex Smith (trade), who went .296-2-40, with 40 steals for the Rays. There are also SS J.P. Crawford (trade), who hit just .214 in 49 games for the Phillies; LF Domingo Santana (trade), .265-5-20 in 85 games for the Brewers; and C Omar Narvaez (trade), .275-9-30 in 97 games for the White Sox. Truly, in Seattle, you won’t be able to tell the players without a scorecard.
When you look at the whole of it: Speedy place setters (Smith and Gordon) and a modicum of power (Encarnacion, Healy, Haniger), this lineup should produce some runs.
Then the question become, how many tallies will the pitchers give up? The answer to that question may be what keeps the Mariners down in fourth place. In the off-season, the Mariners gave up their best starting pitcher, arguably MLB’s best closer, their top late –inning setup man and a couple of key middle relievers. Ouch!
Let’s take a look at who they are likely to take north. The rotation looks to include returnees Marco Gonzalez (13-9, 4.00 in 29 starts); Mike Leake (10-10, 4.36 in 31 starts); and Wade Leblanc (9-5, 3.72 in 27 starts). Joining this group will be Yusei Kikuchi (14-4, 3.08 in Japan). The status of former number-one starter Felix Hernandez (8-14, 5.55) remains a question. Also, before the end of the season, may see one or both of the pitchers acquired in the trade of James Paxton to the Yankees: Justice Sheffield and Erik Swanson. I lean toward Swanson, who was 8-2, 2.66 at three levels last season, and just as important, showed swing-and-miss stuff that is not part of the current rotation’s repertoire (139 strikeouts in 121 2/3 innings for Swanson).
Then there is the bullpen, where the Mariners traded away Edwin Diaz and his 57 saves. Not sure who the new closer will be, but it is looking like it could be shared among newcomers Hunter Strickland (3.97 with 14 saves for the Giants) and Cory Gearrin (3.29 in 3.77 in 62 games for the Giants, Rangers and A’s). When healthy Anthony Swarzak (shoulder) and Shawn Armstrong (oblique) could also be in the mix. The Mariners may also look for key outs from among Ruben Alaniz, Roenis Elias and Zac Rosscup. Ultimately, this is a bullpen that is still looking to establish its roles – and that is concern.
KEY OFF-SEASON MOVE
The acquisition of Edwin Encarnacion (trade) gives the Mariners a little star power, as well as a proven cleanup hitter. In the past seven seasons, Encarnacion has topped 30 home runs every season and 100 RBI six times.
PLAYER TO WATCH
Japanese import Yusei Kikuchi (14-4, 3.08 in Japan last season) has four quality pitches: a mid-90’s fastball, along with a workable slider, curve and splitter. In his last three seasons in Japan, the southpaw went: 12-7, 2.58; 16-6, 1.97; and 14-4, 3.08.
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RANGERS – Fifth Place
Like many teams it the West, the Rangers look to have offensive potential and mound work question marks. That – and the retirement of future Hall of Famer and long-time fan favorite Adrian Beltre – could make for a long season in Texas.
Adrian Beltre … will be missed in Texas and around baseball. Photo by Keith Allison
Let’s start with the lineup. With the exception (sad face here) of the retired Adrian Beltre, it looks a lot like the 2018 version. RF Nomar Mazara (.258-20-77); LF Joey Gallo (206-40-92, coming off is second straight 40-homer campaign); and SS Elvis Andrus (.256-3-33 in 97 games – but .297-20-88 in 2017), working to bounce back from a broken elbow in 2018. Shin-Soo Choo could lead off (RF/DH) or fit in lower in the lineup (.264-21-62), with 2B Rougned Odor (.253-18-62, with 12 steals) in the two-spot. In the bottom of the order, Ronald Guzman (.235-16-58 in 123 games) should offer some pop at 1B and free-agent signee Asdrubel Cabrera (.262-23-75 for the Mets and Phillies) seems set to slide in at third. Delino DeShields is focused on rebounding from an injury-hampered 2018 (.216-2-22, with 20 steals in 106 games). If healthy, he is a plus defender and an aggressive base runner/stealer, who should be able to top .250 at the plate. Finally, free-agent Jeff Mathis (.200-1-20 in 69 games for the Diamondbacks) – an excellent defensive catcher – was signed to handle backstop duties. Overall, it’s a pretty balanced lineup. Unfortunately, the balance point at each position is lower than that of the Division Champion Astros.
Cautionary Statement: Joey Gallo will be in the lineup – but it could be at 3B, 1B or LF. A final decision on that issue can shift potential starters around.
In 2018, the Texas staff put up a 4.92 earned run average – highest in the Division, third-highest in the AL.
It says a lot about the Rangers that they are looking at a pair of veterans who did not pitch in the major leagues in 2017 (Tommy John surgery) to make their rotation – Drew Smyly and Edison Volquez. It looks about like this: Mike Minor (12-8, 4.18 for the Rangers); Lance Lynn, a seven-year veteran (10-10, 4.77 for the Twins and Yankees); Drew Smyly, a five-year veterans (7-12, 4.88 for the Rays in 2016); Edison Volquez (4-8, 4.19 for the Marlins in 2017); Shelby Miller (0-4, 10.69 for the Diamondbacks). We may see the Rays’ “Opener” and “Bullpen Days” strategies in Texas.
In the bullpen, Jose Leclerc has grabbed the closer role and run with it (1.56, 12 saves, 85 whiffs in 57 2/3 innings). Jesse Chavez (5-2, 2.55 in 52 games) can get the ball to the ninth. Also likely to contribute are: Chris Martin (4.54 in 46 appearances); Connor Sadzek (0.96 in 13 appearances); and Jeffrey Springs (3.38 in 18 appearances).
KEY OFF-SEASON MOVE
Bringing back Jesse Chavez, traded to the Cubs in July and signed as a free-agent in November, returns a reliable setup man to the Rangers’ bullpen. Chavez went 5-2, 2.55, with five saves for the Rangers and Cubs, fanning 92 batters in 95 1/3 innings.
PLAYER TO WATCH
I’’d watch Joey Gallo. If he ever develops any level of plat disciple, he could be a monster. In the past two seasons, he’s hit 81 home runs, but also struck out 403 times (36.3 percent of all his plate appearances). Last season, in fact, his strikeouts (207), exceeded hit batting average (.206)
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NEXT – THE MOST VALUABLE PLAYER, CY YOUNG AND ROOKIE OF THE YEAR AWARDS.
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