The season is almost upon us and it’s time for some BBRT predictions. Things, of course, can change – particularly since there are still some “difference makers” out there on the free-agent market (Like Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel). Over the coming week, BBRT will look at each MLB Division, and then wrap up with predictions for the major awards (ROY, CYA, MVP). We’re starting with the National League, going from East to West (Division-wise). Today, we are looking at the NL Central Division. For the NL East Preview, click here. Tomorrow: National League West.
After each divisional predicted order of finish – for those who want more detail or justification – I’ll move on to a team-by-team evaluation. Keep in mind, these are just BBRT’s opinions and conjecture – not the result of any inside insight or info.
For the NL East, click here.
For the NL West, click here.
For the AL East, click here.
For the AL Central, click here.
For the AL West, click here.
For the major awards, click here.
NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL
Cardinals
Cubs (Wild Card)
Brewers
Pirates
Reds
In 2018, the Cardinals offense was right up there with the Cubs and Brewers. Eliminating the Cubs/Brewers Game 163 the Cardinals scored 759 runs, the Cubs 760 and Brewers 751. Then the Cardinals went out and traded for six-time All Star first baseman Paul Goldschmidt – who will improve their offense and defense. The Redbirds also bolstered their bullpen with free agent Andrew Miller; while the Cubs and Brewers were less active in the off-season market. I think this will be enough to put the Cardinals on top of what may be MLB’s best – and most competitive – division. I wouldn’t be surprised to see just a couple of games separating the top three teams (or another Game 163). Really, you could pick the Cardinals, Cubs or Brewers and make a good case. The Pirates and Reds will be watching this race. (Although the Reds did add some key players – particularly in their trade with the Dodgers – like Yasiel Puig, Matt Kemp Tanner, Roark and Alex Wood.
Now, let’s take a team-by-team look at the Central Division.
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Cardinals – First place
Paul Goldschmidt … will lead Redbirds back to the top.Photo by Keith Allison 
We heard and read a lot about the signings of Manny Machado and Bryce Harper, but let’s not forget another marquis off-season move – the Cardinals trading for 1B Paul Goldschmidt – a six-time All Star, three-time Gold Glover and four-time Silver Slugger.
Goldschmidt hit .290-33-83 last season (Diamondbacks) and there is no reason not to expect similar numbers as a Redbird. The fact is, Goldschmidt will improve both the Cardinals’ offense and their infield defense (enabling the move of Matt Carpenter back to 3B.) Keeping in mind that the Cardinals won 88 games without Goldy’s big bat a season ago, you can see why BBRT likes the Cardinals to finish atop the NL Central.
In 2018, Cardinals’ first basemen committed 20 errors in 162 contests, new first sacker Paul Goldschmidt has committed a total of 20 errors since July 5, 2014 (652 games played).
Goldschmidt joins an already potent lineup that includes: LF Marcell Ozuna (.280-23-88 a year ago); 3B Matt Carpenter (.257-36-81); and RF Jose Martinez (.305-17-83). Note: The Cardinals have a significant investment in Dexter Fowler, but BBRT does not seem him unseating Martinez – although others disagree. If Fowler does bounce back – he hit .180 in a season shortened by a fractured foot – it give the Cardinals more lineup, pinch-hitting and substitution options. Not an insignificant thing in the NL. CF belongs to 25-year-old Harrison Bader, who is a plus defender and hit .264-12-37, with 15 steals, in his first full MLB season. Look for his glove and speed to keep him in the lineup – at the seventh or eighth spot.
Yadier Molina (.251-20-74 and a nine-time Gold Glover, including 2018) is back behind the plate. The 36-year-old may need a little more rest, but he shows no signs of slowing down. Also playing in the middle will be plus defender Kolten Wong (.249-9-38) at 2B and SS Paul DeJong (.241-19-68). The 25-year-old DeJong hit .285-25-65 in 108 games in his 2017 rookie season – and could improve on his 2018 numbers. The versatile Jedd Gyorko (.262-11-47) provides backup around the diamond. Last year, he saw started games at 1B, 2B and 3B and even took a turn on the mound.
The pitching rotation is headed by Miles Mikolas – who spent 2015-17 in Japan, where he went 28-13, 2.18. Mikolas went 18-4, 2.83 for the Cardinals and looks to be the real deal. The number–two spot goes to 23-year-old Jack Flaherty (8-9, 3.34 in 28 starts). There is also plenty of quality in the rest of the rotation – as well as potential health issues. Depending on health, the remaining three spots will come from among: Michael Wacha (8-2, 3.20 in 15 starts last season); Adam Wainwright (2-4. 4.46 in eight starts); John Gant (7-6, 3.47 in 19 starts); and Alex Gomber (6-2, 4.44 in 29 appearances/11 starts). The Cardinals will also be watching the progress of Carlos Martinez (8-6, 3.11 in 33 appearances/18 starts), who is expected start the season on the IL (shoulder). The point here is that the Cardinals, whose 3.52 starter’s ERA was the NL Central’s best and the NL’s third-best, have plenty of arms to choose from. The rotation should prove an asset (and those that don’t fill in starting roles will provide bullpen strength and backup in case health issues emerge).
Speaking of the bullpen, the Cardinals added depth with free-agent (Indians) Andrew Miller (2-4, 4.24 in 37 appearances.) Miller suffered through some shoulder issues last season, but the Cardinals say he is healthy going into 2019. If that’s the case, he will be a great asset in key innings. In the four seasons from 2014-17, Miller went 22-11, 1.72, with 51 saves in 260 appearances. Coming from the right side, the Cardinals will look to Jordan Hicks – perhaps MLB’s hardest-throwing pitcher. (Statcast credits Hicks with 15 of the 20 fastest pitches of 2018, with a high of 105.1 mph.) Hicks Hick went 3-4, 3.59 in 73 games a year ago, fanning 70 batter in 77 2/3 innings. Other likely contributors include Dakota Hudson, Luke Gregerson and Brett Cecil. The bullpen is definitely set to close out games.
KEY OFF-SEASON MOVE
Clearly, the Cardinals improved significantly – on offense and defense – by adding Paul Goldschmidt.
PLAYER TO WATCH
BBRT will be watching Dakota Hudson and John Gant (a pair of right-handed pitchers) with interest – to see just how they fit into the Cardinals’ plans. Gant (a 26-year-old righty) went 7-6, 3.47 in 26 appearances (19 starts) for the Cardinals last season. He was 5-1, 1.65 at Triple A in 2018 and 44-28, 3.28 over eight minor league campaigns. The 24-year-old Hudson went 4-1, 2.63 in 26 appearances for the Redbirds. He could fit into the bullpen (as he did last year), but has perhaps more potential as a starter. At Triple A last season, Hudson went 13-3, 2.50 in 19 starts. Both these pitchers appear to have the potential to deliver the goods for the Cardinals.
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CUBS – Second Place
Javier Baez … possibly the NL’s best second baseman. Photo by DandreaPhotography
The Cubs’ strength starts at the corner infield spots. First baseman Anthony Rizzo (.283-25-101) is one of MLB’s most reliable power sources – and, when he’s healthy, Kris Bryant can claim that same distinction. Unfortunately, shoulder issues limited Bryant to 102 games (.272-13-52). If he stays in the lineup, he should return to numbers closer to .290-30-90. Joining the infield power party is 2B/SS Javier Baez (.290-34-111), who just seems to keep getting better (14 homers in 2016, 23 in 2017, 34 in 2018). If Baez improves his plate disciple (29 walks and 167 whiffs last season), look out! (Note: Baez is likely to start the season at SS, due to Addison Russell’s suspension.) Filling out the infield, at 2B, will be versatile veteran Ben Zobrist (.305-9-58) in 139 games. When Zobrist spends time in the outfield, free-agent signee (D-backs) Daniel Descalso (.238-13-57) in 138 games will fill in at the second sack. The catching will be handled by the capable Wilson Contreras (.249-10-54).
The outfield belongs to: LF Kyle Schwarber (.238-26-61) – a solid power source, who also struck out in about one-third of his 2018 at bats; RF Jason Heyward (.270-8-57) – an average hitter, but a five-time Gold Glover; and CF Albert Almora, Jr. (.286-5-41) – another solid defender (but also a free swinger, with 24 walks against 83 strikeouts in 2018).
Over the past four seasons, the Cubs have averaged 98 wins a campaign.
The Cubs look to a veteran pitching staff to get them to the late innings. It starts with southpaw Jon Lester, in his 14th MLB season, who led the NL with 18 wins (six losses) last season, with a 3.32 ERA. Then there is Cole Hamels, also in his 14th MLB campaign, who went 9-12, 3.78 for Texas and the Cubs. Filling out the rotation are a pair of 29-year-olds: righty Kyle Hendricks (14-11, 3.44) and southpaw Jose Quintana (13-11. 4.03). A kind of a wild card is Yu Darvish, who had elbow surgery last September (1-3, 4.95 in eight starts), but is a four-time All Star with top of the rotation stuff when healthy. At 32-years-old, you wonder a bit about how he will bounce back.
The bullpen should be headed by closer Brandon Morrow (0-0, 1.47, with 22 saves last season). Morrow, however is rehabbing from off-season elbow surgery and likely will not be ready until May. Pedro Strop seems the most likely (6-1, 2.28, 13 saves) to step in. In addition, Steve Cishek (4-3, 2.18 in 80 games) and Brandon Kintzler (3-3, 4.60 in 70 games) both have closer experience. Carl Edwards, Jr. (3-2, 2.60 in 58 games) should also get plenty of work. Still, the uncertainty in the bullpen is a slight worry.
KEY OFF -SEASON MOVE
The Cubs were not very active in the off-season, but did bring in free-agent infielder Daniel Descalso (Diamondbacks) to provide some flexibility as they deal with the Addison Russell suspension.
PLAYER TO WATCH
Keep an eye on Yu Darvish, coming back from elbow surgery. If he rebounds, the Cubs rotation suddenly gets a lot more effective. A healthy Darvish – a four-time All Star – could give the Cubs 12-15 wins.
the Cubbies will remain in the NL Central dog fight (Cardinal, Cubs and Brewers). BBRT just thinks the Cardinals may have a slight edge in defense, plate discipline and pitching.
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BREWERS – Third Place
Wow! The Brewers surprised a lot of people in 2018 and, no doubt, they’ll be in the hunt again. They will do it with a combination of:
- Power bats. In the NL, only the Dodgers hit more home runs, with 235, than the Brewers, with 218. There is no reason to expect the Brewers not to reach 200 round trippers again.
- Power arms in the bullpen. The Brewers’ relief staff had the NL’s second-best earned run average (3.47 to the Cubs 3.35), second-most innings pitched (614 to the Padres 635) and best strikeouts-per-nine-inning ratio (10.38).
The players who put up the above numbers are, for the most part, back. The question mark for the Brew Crew is the starting rotation (after Jhoulys Chacin) and whether all that work will eventually catch up with the pen. Let’s take a look, starting with the offense.
MVP Christian Yelich will again lead the Brewers’ offense.
Photo by DandreaPhotography
The Brewers have a potent offense – up and down the lineup – and the focal point is RF Christian Yelich, the 2018 NL MVP, who had a career year. In his sixth season (at age 26), Yelich won the batting title with a career-high .326 average and also reached new career marks in hits (187), runs scored (118), home runs (36), RBI (110) and stolen bases (22). It might be a bit unfair to expect him to repeat those numbers, but he will remain a force in the lineup. Lorenzo Cain, who hit a career-high .308, is back in center field and the lead off spot. Cain scored 90 runs and stole a career-high 30 bases. Ryan Braun (LF/1B) adds some pop (.254-20-64) and will probably see time in both corner outfield spots and third base. Newcomer Ben Gamel (trade with Mariners) and returnee Eric Thames are the leading backups (Thames with more power, Gamel with the steadier bat).
Plenty offense around the infield as well. At the corners, there are Travis Shaw at third base (.241-32-86) and Jesus Aguilar (.274-35-108) at first. Both Shaw and Aguilar notched career highs in long balls in 2018. Mike Moustakas is back to play 2B, coming off a .251-28-95 season for the Royals and Brewers. Orlando Arcia (24-years-old and entering his fourth MLB season) will handle shortstop. He got off to a slow start, but came on in the second half to finish .268-3-30 in 119 games. He has notable upside, having gone .277-15-53, with 14 steals in 2017. Look for him to finish somewhere in the middle of those two stat lines. The Brewers filled a big need at catcher when they signed free-agent Yasmani Grandal (Dodgers) – a veteran backstop with power (more on that signing later).
Jhoulys Chacin (15-8, 3.50) leads the rotation – and was the only starter with more than nine wins. The rest of the staff looks to be Zach Davies (looking to bounce back after shoulder issues limited him to 13 starts and 2-7, 4.77 record); Chase Anderson (9-8, 3.93); Jimmy Nelson (who missed all of 2018 rehabbing from shoulder surgery, but did go 12-6, 3.49 in 2017); and Brian Woodruff (3-0, 3.61 with the Brewers – after 3-2, 4.04 at Triple A). If any of these falter, a couple of young arms are looking to step up: 24-year-old Corbin Burnes (7-0, 2.61 in 30 relief appearances) and 23-year-old Freddy Peralto (6-4, 4.25 in 16 appearances/14 starts).
One thing seems for sure. The Brewers’ bullpen will get a lot of work – and it’s a good one. The Brewers’ pen is led by three pitchers with closer stuff: Corey Knebel (4-3, 3.58, with 16 saves and 88 strikeouts in 55 1/3 innings); Josh Hader (6-1, 2.43, 12 saves and 143 strikeouts in 81 1/3 innings); and Jeremy Jeffress (8-1, 1.29, 15 saves, with 89 strikeouts in 76 2/3 innings). Long story short, the Brewers have plenty of bullpen weapons; let’s just hope overwork doesn’t lead them to run out of ammo.
The Brewers have a lot going for them. However, three things have BBRT placing them third; 1) The starting pitching; 2) The continuing workload that could face the bullpen; 3) The fact that so much went right in 2018 (so many “career high marks,” more than can be expected in 2019. Then again, the Brewers pulled of the unexpected in 2018. Who’s to say it can’t happen again. No matter the outcome, the Brew Crew will make interesting.
KEY OFF-SEASON MOVE
The Brewer’s faced the 2019 season with a need to upgrade at the backstop position – adding seven-year veteran Yasmani Grandal’s potent (switch-hitting) bat to an already powerful lineup took care of that need. The 30-year-old has topped 20 home runs in each of his last three campaigns (.241-24-68 for the Dodgers in 2018).
PLAYER TO WATCH
It makes sense to keep an eye on 29-year-old RHP Jimmy Nelson – coming back from shoulder surgery after missing all of the 2017 season. Nelson was 12-6, 3.49 in 2017 – fanning 199 batters in 174 1/3 innings. If his mid-90’s fastball and effective sinker are back, he could go a long way toward helping the Brewers repeat. It will be interesting to see: 1) if he breaks camp with the team; and 2) if he starts the season in the bullpen or rotation.
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PIRATES – Fourth Place
Could the Pirates be the Brewers of 2019? Pittsburgh plays in, arguably, the toughest division in baseball. As a result, they tend to be overlooked. But, the fact is, the Pirates have a pretty good ball club with solid pitching (in the rotation and the pen). The club has some talent in the lineup, but absolutely needs to add some “punch” if they are going to move up in the standings. (The Pirates finished 13th in home runs and tenth in runs scored in the NL a year ago.) Still, this is a team that finished two games over .500 in 2018 – and won 16 of their last 24 games. Let’s take a look at the Buccos.
Chris Archer, a key member of the Pirates’ strong rotation. Photo by rrescot
The Pirates pitching can be a real strength – led by starters Chris Archer, Jameson Taillon and Trevor Williams. The “ace” of the staff is Jameson Taillon, who had a breakout season in 2018 (his third MLB campaign), going 14-10, 3.20. Trevor Williams also looked strong in 2018 – 14-10, 3.11 in 31 starts. The 30-year-old Archer is the veteran of the group (6-8, 4.31 in 27 starts). Archer, acquired in a July trade (with the Rays), is a two-time All Star and looked good closing 2018. In his final five starts of the season, he went 2-1, 2.70, striking out 36 batters in 30 innings. He’s look good this spring and may be ready to return to the form that has delivered a 3.63 ERA over his first six MLB seasons. The rotation should be filled out from among Joe Musgrove (6-9, 4.06); Jordan Lyle (3-4, 4.11); and prospect Mitch Keller. Keller, just 23, went 12-4, 3.48 at three minor league levels last season.
The bullpen looks solid, led by closer Felipe Vazquez – who went 4-2, 2.70 with 37 saves and 89 whiffs in 70 innings. Kela Keone, who has also shown closer stuff (he had 24 saves for the Rangers before being traded to the Pirates in late July), will pitch key innings, as will Richard Rodriguez (4-3, 2.47 in 63 games as a rookie.)
On offense, the Pirates look to be outgunned. Last season, no one hit more than 23 home runs nor drove in more than 81 for the Pirates – and the player that reached those marks was Gregory Polanco (.254-23-81 in 130 games), who is recovering from shoulder surgery. They do have a bonafide star in CF, where Starling Marte produced a .277 average with 20 home runs, 72 RBI and 33 steals. Joining him in the outfield are LF Corey Dickerson (.300-13-55, eight steals), who also brings plus defensive skills, and Lonnie Chisenhall (in right field until Polanco returns), who put up a .321-1-9 line in 29 games for the Indians. The Pirates are looking for a rebound from 25-year-old 1B Josh Bell – who went .261-12-62, after hitting .255-26-90 in 2017. Second baseman Adam Frazier showed a little pop last season, .277-10-35 in 113 games. The likely lead-off man, Frazier needs to solve some road woes (he hit .336 at home and .230 on the road). His 2018 home/road numbers reflect his career splits (.306/.258). SS will go to either Erik Gonzalez (.265-1-16 in 81 games with the Indians) or Kevin Newman (.209-0-6 in 31 games.); while 3B belongs to Colin Moran (.277-11-58). Moran may be spelled against tough lefties. Jung Ho Kang, coming back after missing the 2017 and most of 2018 season (just six at bats in three games), could also play into the 3B picture. He has shown 20-home power. A bright spot in the lineup is catcher, where Francis Cervelli, who went .259-12-57 in 104 games a year ago, and Eliz Diaz (.286-10-3 in 82 games) hold sway.
Overall, the Pirate can put a competitive team on the field, but they really need another power bat or two to contend with the top three in the tough NL Central.
KEY OFF-SEASON MOVE
The Pirate did not make any flashy off-season moves. Picking up Lonnie Chisenhall to hold down RF until Gregory Polanco returns from injury may very well prove to be the best move.
PLAYER TO WATCH
In early February, the Pirate signed free-agent Francisco Liriano (5-12, 4.58 with the Tigers last season). Liriano has twice won the Comeback Player of the Year Award (2010 AL and 2013 NL). One of those times was with the Pirates – in 2013, when he went 16-8, 3.02 for Pittsburgh after a 6-12, 5.34 season with the Twins and White Sox the year before. Can Liriano (and the Pirates) catch lightening in a bottle again? At age 35, it seems unlikely, but it will be interesting to watch.
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REDS-Fifth Place
The Reds made some moves to bolster both the offense (adding Matt Kemp and Yasiel Puig) and their pitching woes (adding Tanner Roark, Alex Wood and Sony Gray). All four came over via trade. While, Kemp and Puig should thrive in The Great American Ballpark, Roark and Wood may not be enough to address the “elephant in the room” – the fact that the Reds’ pitching staff gave up an NL-worst 819 runs last season and had the second-worst team ERA at 4.63.
There are those that maintain the hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark played a major role in the Reds’ pitching problems – but the team had a 4.62 ERA at home and 4.68 on the road.
Joey Votto – face of the Reds. Photo by Keith Allison
Let’s take a look at the Reds, staring with the offense. There is a lot to like there, starting with 1B Joey Votto a six-time All Star. Still, Votto had a bit of an off year in 2018 (.284-12-67), but should be good for a .300 average and 25-30 long balls. Having Yasiel Puig (.267-23-63 in 125 games for the Dodger) in the lineup behind him may help Votto get more pitches to hit (he has led the NL in walks five times since 2011). With the addition of Puig and Kemp (.290-21-85), the Reds are, in fact, overstocked in the garden. They also have Jesse Winker (.299-7-43 in 89 games); Scott Schebler (.255-17-49 in 107 games); and prospect Nick Senzel – a natural infielder (2B/SS) who has been seeing some time in the OF. Senzel, who has been discussed as a center fielder, hit .310 in 44 games at Triple A last year and .321-14-65 in 119 minor league games in 2017. (Note: Senzel has had some health issues – a couple of bouts with vertigo and a fractured finger.) If Senzel is ready to go, we could see the Reds looking to trade some outfield talent for pitching.
Looking to the infield, Votto has plenty of company in the power category there. Scooter Gennett (2B) went .310-23-92 a year ago; 3B Eugenio Suarez went .284-34-104; and SS Jose Peraza’s line was .288-14-58, with 23 steals. Tucker Barnhardt looks to again handle backstop duties – after a .248-10-46 season.
As you can see, there is plenty of offense here. Ah, but that pitching. Luis Castillo is the staff leader after a 10-12, 4.30 season. The 26-year-old, entering his third MLB season, appeared to come of age in the second half of 2018, when he went 5-4, 2.44 and fanned 69 batters in 66 1/3 innings. Newcomers Tanner Roark (9-15, 4.34 with the Nationals), Sonny Gray (11-9, 4.90 with the Yankees) and Alex Wood (9-7, 3.68 with the Dodgers) give a whole new look to the rotation. Also among the potential Reds’ starters are Anthony DeSclafani (7-8, 4.93) and Tyler Mahle (7-9, 4.98). Overall, the rotation should be improved, but not enough to put the Reds in contention. If the newcomers contribute, however, the Reds could pass the Pirates.
The bullpen will be led by closer Raisel Iglesias, who went 205, 2.38 with 30 saves in 2018. Others who are likely to be called on for important outs include Jared Hughes (4-3, 1.94, 7 saves in 72 games); David Hernandez (5-2, 2.53 in 57 games); and Mike Lorenzen (4-2, 3.11 in 45 games).
Overall, the Reds are notably improved, but face the challenge of a tough Division. Fourth place is a possibility, but Cincy is not likely to contend.
KEY OFF-SEASON MOVE
The Reds addressed two key needs in their off-season trade with the Dodgers– adding a much needed starter in Alex Wood (9-7, 3.68) and protection in the linkup for Joey Votto in Yasiel Puig. In addition, they picked up a solid outfielder in Matt Kemp (giving them some lineup and trade options going forward) and a utility infielder in Kyle Farmer. In return, they sent the Dodgers Homer Bailey and two of their leading prospects in Jeter Downs and Josiah Gray. Puig hit .267 with 23 home runs and 15 steals last season and should benefit from hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark (as should Kemp, who went .290-21-85 for the Dodgers).
PLAYER TO WATCH
Nick Senzel, a 24-year-old outfield prospect, was .314, with six home runs, 25 RBI and eight steals at Triple A Louisville in a 2018 season shortened by a broken finger. In three minor-league seasons, Senzel has hit .314-27-130, with 40 steals, in 231 games. He looks like the real deal and could contend for the NL Rookie of the Year Award.
TOMORROW – THE NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST
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