BBRT Crystal Ball for 2015 season appeared either empty or opaque.
With the post-season about to start, it’s time for BBRT to get in my predictions. These are not “take it to the bank” prognostications – as indicated by my lack of success in pre-season pennant race projections.
In March, I did accurately project the Saint Louis Cardinals and LA Dodgers as Division winners, and even got the Pirates’ Wild Card slot correct. I wasn’t too far off in the AL East – I had the Nationals finishing first and (what some people have called “The Surprising”) Mets, second. The two finished 1-2 in the Division, but in reverse order. I really missed the boat on the Padres, predicting that their off-season moves would earn them A Wild Card spot. Ooops – Padres finished fourth! Still, three-for-five in predicting post-season berths – and two of three for Division titles (with my only miss finishing second) was not too bad.
Aah, but then came the AL, home to my Minnesota Twins. Apparently, familiarity is not a good thing. I got only one AL one post-season team correct in my March projections. I had the Blue Jays finishing second and capturing a Wild Card slot – and, of course, they won the AL East. The second-place and Wild Card Yankees? I had them fourth, with the Red Sox (last in the East) taking the Division. Again, I was fooled by aggressive off-season activity. In the AL Central, I don’t know what I was thinking, picking the White Sox for the top spot and the Division-winning Royals in third. I was even worse when it came to pegging the AL West – predicting the third-place Angels to lead the Division and the fourth-place Mariners to grab a Wild Card spot. Congrats to the Division Champion Rangers and the Wild Card Astros for proving me oh, so wrong.
So, with that less-than-sterling record, I am fully prepared to make my predictions for the upcoming post-season. I’ll start with the two Wild Card elimination games in this post – and, once the field is reduced to eight teams, make my predictions for the rest of the playoffs.
AL Wild Card – Astros at Yankees
Carlos Beltran – BBRT “pick to click” in AL Wild Card Elimination game.
The youthful Astros take on the veteran Yankees – with the Astros’ Dallas Keuchel (20-8, 2.48 on the season, but 5-8, 3.77 on the road) starting opposite Masahiro Tanaka (12-7, 3.51). If this were a three- five, or seven-game series, I’d have to go with the Astros. They just seem to have the better overall squad. But for this one game – with Keuchel going on short rest (and on the road) and the Yankees able to look to Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller for the last two innings – I expect Tanaka to go a strong six (or, ideally, seven) innings and the Yankees to win a close one. Out-of-left field prediction: The Yankees’ Carlos Beltran will provide key offensive fire power as the Bronx Bombers prevail 5-3.
NL Wild Card – Chicago Cubs at Pirates
Jake Arrieta should lead Cubs to victory.
Wow! Here we have a match up of two exciting teams, with well-rested “Aces” on the mound. For the Pirates, it’s Gerrit Cole (19-8, 2.45), while the Cubs send Jake Arrieta (22-6, 1.77) to the mound. BBRT is going to go with the hot hand (and attached arm) in this one – and that is Arrieta, who has gone 11-0, with a 0.41 ERA in 12 starts since August 1. The fact is, with Cole and Arrieta on the mound, a lot of pretty good hitters could be made to look pretty bad. BBRT looks for the Cubs and Arrieta to emerge with a 3-1 victory. Out-of-left-field predictions: Arrieta gives up just three hits during his time on the hill, and Kyle Schwarber strikes the key offensive blow for the Cubbies.
I tweet baseball @DavidBBRT
Member: Society for American Baseball Research (SABR); The Baseball Reliquary; Baseball Bloggers Alliance.
