September baseball – exciting in Pittsburgh.
In the August 20th BBRT’s post, I commented on my late August/September “watch list” – like Max Scherzer’s chances to notch MLB’s best winning percentage ever; the NL Central, AL West and AL East races; the AL and NL Rookie of the Year competition; Cabrera’s Triple Crown repeat chances; and the Pirates’ quest to top .500 for the first time in twenty years. As we close out August, and BBRT completes its traditional monthly “observations,” I’ll update a few of those items, as well as comment on some additional developments that are capturing BBRT’s late-season interest. The list is not all-inclusive, just a few stories that provide some relief in a season when my Twins are not playing compelling baseball. (Stats as of end of August 31 games.)
NL MVP Race
BBRT is tracking the NL MVP race, where the leading candidate seems to be the Pirates’ outfielder Andrew McCutchen. Cutch raised his MVP profile with a .384, 2 HR, 15 RBI, 6 SB) August. For the season, McCutchen is .317-17-74, for a Pirates’ team that ranks tenth in the NL in runs scored.
There has been considerable MVP discussion surrounding Dodgers’ hurler Clayton Kershaw and his MLB-leading 1.72 ERA. No doubt, Kershaw has put up great numbers (Cy Young territory). Still he is only 13-8 on the season. (Not necessarily his fault, Kershaw went 3-2 in August, despite a 1.01 ERA.) Dodger Zach Grienke, despite a higher (2.86) ERA, stands at 13-3 for the Dodgers and went 5-0, 1.23 in August. McCutchen, in BBRT’s estimation, has been more valuable to the Pirates than Kershaw to the Dodgers. BBRT would, however, like to throw Francisco Liriano’s hat in the ring. (See next section.)
Francisco Liriano – Comeback Player, CY Young, MVP?
BBRT is following the starts and stats of Pirates’ left hander Francisco Liriano – whom I consider a shoe-in for Comeback Player of the Year; as well as a dark horse candidate for the Cy Young and MVP Awards. Here’s why. Coming off a broken arm, Liriano didn’t make his first start until May 11. He ended August at 15-6 (tied for the NL lead in wins), with a 2.57 ERA and 135 strikeouts in 133 innings. Just as important, two of his four wins (against two losses) in August were in key games against the Pirates’ chief competition for the division title – the Cardinals. In those two starts, Liriano threw 17 innings, giving up seven hits, striking out 12 (against 3 walks), and allowing just one earned run. (Liriano has started three games against the Cards this year, winning all three and giving up just two earned runs in 24 innings.)
Notably, Liriano’s 2.57 ERA includes a disastrous August 9 game in Colorado, when he gave up ten earned runs in just 2 1/3 innings. Without that start, Liriano’s ERA would be 1.93. Liriano’s performance is all the more important when you consider no other Pirates’ starter has reached double-digits in wins.
Strikeouts Chapter One – Yu Darvish’s Quest for 300
BBRT is keeping an eye on Yu Darvish’s run at 300 strikeouts for the season. Darvish heads into September with 236 strikeouts in 174 innings (12.2 Ks per 9 IP). The last 300-strikeout season was recorded by Arizona’s Randy Johnson in 2002, when he fanned 334 batters in 260 innings (11.6 per nine inning). The last AL hurler to reach 300 strikeouts was Boston’s Pedro Martinez in 1999, when he fanned a remarkable 313 in just 213 1/3 innings (13.2 Ks per nine). Darvish has a chance for 300+, but BBRT expects him to fall about 10-15 whiffs short.
Strikeouts Chapter Two – Twins and Astros
Speaking of strikeouts, according to the Elias Sports Bureau, Minnesota Twins’ hitters fanned 291 times in 30 August games – a new MLB record for whiffs in a month. The Twin’s hitters are only 229 strikeouts shy of the AL season record (1,387 by the 2010 Oakland A’s), but will have to climb over the transplanted Houston Astros, who finished August with a season total of 1,273 strikeouts. That AL mark should fall, and even the Diamondbacks’ MLB whiff record of 1,529 in 2010 is within the Astros’ reach.
Continued excitement in the Motor City.
Update on Cabrera Triple Crown Repeat
Miguel Cabrera continues to hold a comfortable AL lead in batting average (.358) and RBI (130), and is working to chase down the Orioles’ Chris Davis in HRs. Davis still leads Cabrera by four homers (47-43), but Miggy did gain ground in August, out homering Davis 11 to 9. What adds interest are Cabrera’s ongoing injury (abdominal) issues. With the division lead well in hand, it now appears the Tigers may give Cabrera a bit of rest to get him back to 100 percent for the post season. In any case, MLB’s first-ever Triple Crown still looks like a long shot.
Scherzer and the Single-Season Winning Percentage Record
Max Scherzer remains on the “watch list,” still in a position to set a new single-season winning percentage record (15 decisions to qualify). Pittsburgh Pirates’ reliever Elroy Face holds the record at .947 (18-1 in 1959). Scherzer, at 19-1, cannot afford even a single loss over the final weeks if he is to top Face’s mark. This past week, we saw how quickly this chase can be put in jeopardy. In his August 29th start, Scherzer gave up eight hits and six runs (five earned) in five innings – leaving the game down 6-1 to the Oakland A’s. The Tigers fought back and took him off the hook with a 7-6 win – topped by Torii Hunter’s ninth-inning, walk-off, three-run home run. So, Scherzer still has a shot at the record, but he can’t afford another misstep (and may need a little luck). BBRT will continue to follow Mad Max’s starts.
Dodgers Staying Hot?
BBRT is also following the Dodgers, who have bolted out to a 10½ game lead (over Arizona) in the NL West, thanks to a 23-6 August, following a 19-6 July. Can the Dodgers stay this hot? Worth keeping an eye on.
September Fun in Dodger Town,
NL Rookie Race – Two Short Seasons
The NL Rookie of the Year race is interesting, with the leading candidates being one who started the season late and another who is likely to end the season early. The late starter is Yasiel Puig, who has opened eyes with his energy and his attitude. Puig started out strong after his June 3 call up. He hit .436 with 7 homers, 16 RBI, 19 runs and 4 steals in that first month. He came down to earth in July, going .287, 3 HRs, 7 RBI, 17 runs, 3 steals. As the Dodgers heated up in August, so did Puig (or vice versa) – going .320 with 3 home runs, 8 RBI, 17 runs and 3 steals. For the year, Puig has played in 78 games, with a line of .349-13-31, ten steals, and a host of outstanding defensive plays.
Puig’s main competition for ROY is the Marlins’ right-handed starter (21-year-old) Jose Fernandez (of the 98- mph fastball and knee-buckling curve). Playing for the 49-85 Marlins, Fernandez is 10-6, with a 2.33 EA and 173 strikeouts (vs. 53 walks) in 158 2/3 innings. Further, since a slow start (0-2, 4.50 in April), Fernandez has put up Kershaw-like numbers. Since May 1, he is 10-4, with a 1.94 ERA. In August, Fernandez went 3-1, with a 1.15 ERA and 49 strikeouts in 39 innings. That hot August separated Fernandez from another ROY candidate, the Cardinals’ Shelby Miller (12-9. 3.13 on the year), who went 2-2, 4.45 for the month. However, it’s been reported that Fernandez will be shut down in the 170-175 inning range (two more starts), which could hurt his chances. BBRT sees a race to the wire for Puig and Fernandez, with Puig holding the edge because he will remain in the lineup (and in the voters’ sites) through year-end.
AL Rookie of the Year
BBRT touched on the AL Rookie of the Year race in the August 20 post. It appears 23-year-old Detroit shortstop Jose Iglesias (who started the season with Boston) is cementing his lead. Iglesias hit a steady .294 in August and is at .320 with 2 home runs, 24 RBI and 36 runs scored on the year – while also being the expected defensive presence. Tampa Bays’ Wil Myers (who played his first game June 18) carved out a spot in the ROY race in July when he put up a .324-4-18 line (after .296-3-9 in June). A slump in the second half of August (6-for-43) and his .209-2-12 for the month have hurt his ROY chances. Still, he stands at .285-9-39 for the year and could climb back into the race with a solid September. Edge: Iglesias.
Other Individual Races to Watch
Four hurlers are tied atop the NL leader board in wins and none of them are named Kershaw or Harvey – Francisco Liriano (Pirates), 15-6, 2.57; Jorge DeLaRosa (Rockies), 15-6, 3.33; Adam Wainwright (Cardinals), 15-8, 2.96; and Jordan Zimmerman (Nationals), 15-8, 3.33. Should be a fun run to the finish.
The NL batting title is also up for grabs – in a see-saw battle between the Braves Cliff Johnson (.331-10-58 at the end of August) and the Cardinals Yadier Molina (.328-10-60).
Division Races/Wild Card Updates
In mid-August, BBRT was looking at very close races in the AL West and East and NL Central. Things have loosened up a bit in the AL East, with Boston holding a 4 ½ game lead over fading Tampa Bay (11-15 in August). Boston is sitting in a pretty good spot, but don’t count the Rays out yet. They did go 21-5 in July and a strong September could put them back in the race. Texas (after a 19-7 August) enjoys a two-game lead over the A’s. The Rangers and A’s should play some interesting baseball in September. (BBRT expects the Rangers to hang on). The NL East is now the closest race in MLB, with the Pirates one game up on the Cardinals and 3½ ahead of the Reds. It should be exciting as these three storied franchises battle it out in the weeks ahead. All three teams should make the post-season, either as the division champion or in a Wild Card slot. (Could make for some riveting playoff baseball.)
Looking at the other divisions, the Tigers (AL Central), Braves (NL East) and Dodgers (AL West) all have secure leads. Washington did finally come to life, going 16-11 for August. Atlanta, however, more than matched the Nats, going 20-7 and expanding their lead to 15 games.
The AL Wild Card leaders are now Oakland and Tampa Bay, with the Yankees 3 ½ out, the Orioles 4 back and Cleveland 4 ½. BBRT does not anticipate much change there. The Yankees could make a run if Tampa Bay continues to falter and Soriano .270-12-35 in 32 games since joining the Yanks continues to hit.
September baseball ahead – happy watching!!
