With the postseason behind us and the awards season ahead, Baseball Roundtable has devoted some time to looking at (and rating) candidates for the major awards – as well as predicting the winners. In this post, I look at Most Valuable Player candidates (sharing my ratings for the top five in each league). For BBRT’s look at Rookie of the Year candidates, click here. For the Cy Young Award, click here.
AMERICAN LEAGUE MVP
Baseball Roundtable Choice: Shohei Ohtani
Baseball Roundtable Prediction: Shohei Ohtani
- Shohei Ohtani, DH/RHP, Angels … Let’s face it, this was pretty much a slam dunk – despite the Angels’ fourth-place finish. Ohtani delivered value at the plate, on the mound, on the base paths and in the roster flexibility he provided. Ohtani would be in the running for MVP even if he didn’t take the mound. Consider, not only were his 46 home runs third-best in the American League, he was fifth in steals with 26 – power and speed. He also led the league in triples (8) and intentional walks (20) and was third in total walks (96). Ohtani produced a 100-100 season (100 RBI/103 runs scored). Add his 9-2, 3.18 mound record (23 starts) and 156 strikeouts in 130 1/3 innings and you have your AL MVP. (Three things did trouble me: the .257 average, 189 strikeouts as a hitter and the DH position. Still, what he brought to the plate, on the bases and on the mound made him the clear choice.)
- Vlad Guerrero, Jr., 1B, Blue Jays … In almost any other year, the 22-year-old Guerrero would have been clearing a spot on his mantle for this award. He hit a healthy .311, led the AL in home runs with 48 and was fifth in RBI with 111. In fact, he teased a Triple Crown for much of the season. In addition, his 123 runs led the league, as did his 363 total bases, .401 on-base percentage and .601 slugging percentage. The slugging infielder had 52 multi-hit games – and his 188 safeties were second in the league. Side note: A bit of a second-half decline probably kept Guerrero from claiming the triple crown. He was .332-28-73 before the break and .288-20-38 after. Again, Guerrero’s just 22, there is an MVP award (or two) in his future.
- Marcus Semien, 2B, Blue Jays … You have to like a middle infielder with power and Semien fits the bill. This season, he delivered 45 home runs, 102 RBI and 115 runs scored. He even tossed in 15 steals in sixteen attempts. And, he was durable, playing in all 162 games. Further, he did all of this while making the transition from being primarily a shortstop to primarily a second baseman (or does that matter with all of today’s defensive shifts). His .265 average was a little troubling, but he earned this spot among MVP candidates.
- Salvador Perez, C, Royals … What the heck! In his nine previous MLB seasons, Perez was recognized as a Gold Glove defensive catcher with a little pop – 152 home runs in nine seasons, with a high of 27 in both 2017 and 2018. In 2021, the 31-year-old turned on the afterburners. He tied for the league lead in home runs (48) and lead the league in RBI 121,while hitting .273. Those 48 home runs were the most hit in a season by a player who played at least half his games as a catcher (Perez hit 33 while in the game at catcher, 15 as a DH). For those who like to know these things, Javy Lopez – 2003 Braves – hold the single-season record for home runs hit while at catcher, hitting 42 of his 43 home runs that season as a catcher (one as a pinch hitter.
- Tie: Aaron Judge Yankees and Rafael Devers, Red Sox. (Well, we should have some players on this list whose teams made the post season.
Aaron Judge, RF, Yankees … Judge helped power the Yankees with a .287-39-98 line, and also scored 89 runs ans stole six bases.
Rafael Devers, 3B, Red Sox … Devers was a critical piece of the Red Sox offense, going .279-38-113, and scoring 101 runs. (I do like those 100/100 campaigns.)
Another Blue Jay for the List?
Okay, in my top five AL MVP candidates you find a pair of Blue Jays who delivered 100/100 seasons (Vlad Guerrero 111 RBI/123 runs & Marcus Semien (102 RBI & 115 Runs). I could easily have given a third spot to Bo Bichette, who produced 102 RBI and 121 run scored.
NATIONAL LEAGUE MVP
Baseball Roundtable Choice: Paul Goldschmidt
Baseball Roundtable Prediction: Juan Soto
- Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Cardinals …. Placing Goldschmidt here may surprise a few folks, but Goldschmidt delivered a typically golden season: .294, with 31 home runs, 99 RBI, 102 runs scored and 12 steals (in 12 attempts) – plus Gold Glove caliber defense. Perhaps even more important – from August 10 through October 3, when the Redbirds went 35-16 and put themselves back in the post-season picture, Goldschmidt went .346-13-36, while playing all but two of those contests. I give Goldschmidt a slight edge over Juan Soto and Bryce Harper because of his contributions down the stretch – and the fact that his Cardinals did make the post season.
- Juan Sot0, RF, Nationals … The 22-year-old hit .313 (second in the NL) on the season, with 29 home runs, 95 RBI (tenth in the league) and 111 runs scored (second). His .465 on-base percentage (he led the league with 145 walks and 23 intention passes) led the league (and MLB). Those free passes clearly show how valuable his bat was to the Nationals and how determined opponents not to let Soto beat them. Soto had an especially strong second half, going .348-18-53 after the All Star break (with a .525 on-base percentage). That post-break surge may be what sways voters. It’s hard to deny a player who gets on base more than half the time over half a season. On the season, Soto had 41 multi-hit games and and 39 multi-walk games.
- Bryce Harper, RF, Phillies … Harper put up a .309-35-84 line, with 101 runs scored and 13 steals in 16 attempts. He also had a league-topping 42 doubles and a league-leading .615 slugging percentage. Like Goldschmidt and Soto, Harper finished strong – going .338-20-50 after the break.
- Freddie Freeman, 1B, Braves … Freeman had an MVP-candidate caliber season (again): .300-31, 83, with a league-leading 120 runs scored. He had the NL’s third-highest on-base percentage (393), drew the third-most walks (85) and he added steady veteran leadership to the Braves, who had to reshape their lineup after key offensive losses and trade deadline moves. Freeman’s 53 multi-it games, trailed only Trea Turner and Bo Bichette (58 each) in MLB.
- Fernando Tatis, Jr. , SS, Padres … Had the Padres not faded from the race, Tatis might have been right near the top of this ranking – thanks to a league-leading 42 home runs, coupled with 25 steals (in 29 attempts). He just missed the 100-100 club – with 97 RBI and 99 runs scored. Still, it was a season worth a top-five spot on the BBRT MVP list.
Special Mention
It’s hard to justify a spot on the MVP list for a player who was traded mid-season. (Why would you trade an MVP candidate?) Still, Trea Turner, who went from the Nationals to the Dodgers at the trading deadline, deserves a shout out here. Turner won the NL batting crown with a .328 average, lead the league with 195 hits, scored 125 runs, hit 28 home runs, stole a league-leading 32 bases and was a spark plug for the Dodgers down the stretch. Still, he put up more than half of that offense while in a National’s uniform. If had had done all that for the Dodgers, I’d probably slot him in the top three.
Primary Resources: Baseball Reference.com; STATS
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