Brewers’ Jean Segura – 2013 Surprise “or not.”
Today, BBRT takes a look at the first two months of the MLB season – some surprises, some disappointments and some “or nots.”
For example, it appears the Pittsburgh Pirates – who are working on a string of 20 consecutive losing seasons – are a 2013 surprise. They finished the month of May thirteen games over .500 (34-21), tied for second place in the ML Central. But there’s a big “or not” with this surprise. The Pirates have proven their ability to turn around a good season in the second half. In 2012, for example, they were sixteen games over .500 on August 8, only to finish four games under for the season (the “fade” seems to be a Pittsburgh pattern). BBRT is hoping the Pirates surprise and stay in it until the end.
Here’s a few other surprises, disappointments and “or nots.”
- Surprise and disappointment – the upside down AL East. As BBRT looks at the season, many of the surprises at the end of May are consistent with the surprises noted in the end of April blog post, like the upside-down AL East. Most analysts saw the finish – from top to bottom – along the lines of Toronto (active in the off season), Tampa Bay, Baltimore, New York, Boston. As we entered June, the teams stand in reverse order, with the Red Sox on top. However, the Yankees, who have led the division much of the way, are starting to show signs that age and injuries may derail their season. Still, they are getting some key players back, and may still surprise BBRT.
- The Braves’ Justin Upton, whose power was an April surprise (.298, with 12 homers and 19 RBI), turned disappointment in May (.211-2-10).
- The Braves and Nationals remained a surprise/disappointment combo – with Atlanta leading the favored (and disappointing) Nationals by six games at the end of May. The Braves/Nats were expected to fight it out for the division title, but health-related disappointments (Strasburg/Harper) are not helping the Nationals as they work to catch up.
- Not surprising is Tigers’ third baseman’s Miguel Cabrera’s pursuit of a second Triple Crown (Avg.-HR-RBI). A bit surprising is that Orioles’ first baseman Chris Davis seems like the main obstacle in that pursuit. At the end of May, Cabrera let the AL in batting at .372, with Davis second at .356; Cabrera led the AL in RBI with 61, with Davis second at 50; and Davis led the AL in home runs with 19, with Cabrera second at 16. Really, if it weren’t for Cabrera, we might be talking about Davis as a Triple Crown threat. A bit of an “or not” for Davis. His numbers are not a total surprise, the 27-year-old had a breakout season in 2012, going .270-33-85 in 139 games (playing catcher, first base, DH and both corner outfield spots).
- Brewers’ shortstop Jean Segura is another early season surprise with an “or not” aspect. Segura finished May at .354, with eight home runs, 22 RBI and 15 stolen bases. This followed a 2012 season when he went .258-0-14, with 7 steals in 45 games. The “or not?” The 23-year-old has shown plenty of promise, with a .313 average in 399 minor league games, a spot in the 2012 All Star Futures Game and this past season’s Dominican Winter League Batting title. And, think about this. Segura was an Angels’ prospect, included (after playing one game with the Halos in 2012) in the trade that brought Zack Grienke to LA from the Brewers. We could have seen Segura and Mike Trout in the top two spots Angels’ line-up.
- Despite the Braves’ success, the Atlanta outfield has to be considered an early-season disappointment. BBRT already noted Justin Upton’s April slide. Then there is B.J. Upton’s horrendous start – hitting .145, with four home runs and just eight RBI through May. And, of course, Jason Heyward’s .146-2-8 start. A positive surprise for the Braves has been catcher-outfielder Evan Gattis. The 26-year-old rookie with the storied past ended May hitting .281, with 12 homers and 32 RBI.
- Another surprise – with an “or not” – for BBRT is 43-year-old Mariano Rivera’s 1.77 ERA and AL-leading 19 saves through May. Age apparently is ignoring Rivera’s arm and cutter. The “or not?” Shouldn’t be too surprising, Rivera is headed for the Hall of Fame as the all-time saves leader.
- There are a couple of surprising closers in the NL – the Pirates’ Jason Grilli and the Cardinals’ Ed Mujica.
A tip of BBRT’s cap to surprising saves leader Jason Grilli.
May ended with Grilli leading the NL (and all of MLB) with 22 saves and sporting a miniscule 1.09 ERA and 39 strikeouts in 24 2/3 innings. Why a BBRT surprise? Grilli is no new-comer. He’s 36-years-old and, over his previous 10 big league seasons, he was 21-26, with just five saves and an ERA a bit north of four. Still, over his three seasons as a Pirate (2011-2013), he has fanned 165 hitters in 116 innings. This late bloomer has clearly come back even stronger from a severe knee injury that sidelined him for the 2010 season.
Jason Motte, who saved 42 games in 2012, was penciled in as the Cardinals’ closer until shelved by an arm injury. Number-two and number-three choices Mitchell Boggs and Trevor Rosenthal fell short of expectations, leaving number-four choice, Ed Mujca – with six saves in seven MLB seasons – to step up. Step up he did, since moving up to closer in mid-April, Mujica has notched a surprising 17 saves (good for second in the NL through May) and a 1.88 ERA.
- The Texas pitching staff is an April-May surprise, finishing May with the lowest ERA in the AL (3.44), with all five starters under 4.00.
- The Brewers’ Carlos Gomez is another early surprise, hitting .321 with 10 home runs, 27 RBI and 11 stolen bases through May. This from a player whose highest previous average was .260 in 2012.
- The Diamondbacks’ Patrick Corbin is a surprise to BBRT. The 23-year-old hurler ended May at 8-0 with a 1.71 ERA (following a 2012 mark of 6-8, 5.54). On the disappointment side of the coin, 2012 Cy Young Award winner R.A. Dickey (now of Toronto) finished May at 4-7, 5.18.
- A few other good surprises through May (you can look up the numbers): Orioles’ third baseman Manny Machado; Mets’ pitcher Matt Harvey; Red Sox’ hurler Clay Bucholz; Phillies’ outfielder Dominic Brown; Seattle pitcher Hisashi Iwakawa; the Arizona Diamondbacks; the Cleveland Indians.
- Some notable disappointments thus far: the Angels, Dodgers and Blue Jays; Angels’ outfielder Josh Hamilton; 2012 Cy Young winner David Price; Giants’ Hurler Matt Cain.
Mariano Rivera – Still surprising at 43.
