AL Wild Card – Yankees over Red Sox … But Wait!
Gerrit Cole
Conventional wisdom says a one-game play-off/play-in game is likely to be decided by pitching. And this one features the Yankees’ Gerrit Cole (18-8, 3.23) against the Red Sox’ Nathan Eovaldi (11-9. 3.75). It would appear to be advantage Yankees.
But wait, Cole left his second September start (Sept. 7) after just 3 2/3 innings (tight hamstring) and, while he came back to go five effective innings (one run, four hits, three walks, seven strikeouts) on the 14th, there is still cause for concern here. First, that September 14 game was against the Orioles. Second, Cole made three more 2021 start and went 1-2, with a 7.64 ERA. Third, the game is at Fenway
On the other side of the mound, the Red Sox did win seven of Eovaldi’’s last eight starts of the season. But wait, he only got the victory in one of them. And, wait again, Eovaldi went 1-1 with a 5.30 ERA in his final four September starts (and two of those were against the Orioles). One of those final starts was against the Yankees (at Fenway) and Eovaldi gave up seven runs in 2 2/3 innings.
Going deeper, we see two teams (long-time rivals), with solid offenses: the Yankees lead by Aaron Judge (.287-39-98) and Giancarlo Stanton (.273-35-97); the Red Sox led by Rafael Devers (.279-38-113), J.D. Martinez (.286-28-99); and Hunter Renfroe (.259-31-99). The Yankees will miss D.J. LeMahieu (hip) and it’s not yet clear if Martinez (ankle) will be ready for Boston. Overall, the Sox seem to bring a little more explosive power to the battle (six players with 20 or more home runs). On the season, the Red Sox Scored 829 runs to the Yankees 711. (Note: On the season, the Yankees surrendered 669 runs to the Red Sox 749).
BBRT gives the Yankee bullpen – led by Aroldis Chapman (38 saves, 3.36, 15.5 K/9) and Chad Green (6 saves, 3.17, 10.6 K/9) the edge over the Red Sox pen. Leading the Red Sox relief staff are Matt Barnes (24 saves, 3.79, 13.8/K9) and Adam Ottavino (11 saves, 4.21, 10.3 K/9). Josh Taylor, who had a 3.40 ERA in 61 appearances for the BoSox, is on the IL.
Ultimately, these squads seemed pretty well matched. The Red Sox won the season series 10 games-to-nine, outscoring the Yankees 75-74. Now another “but wait.” The Red Sox won the first seven matchups – while the Yankees topped the Red Sox in the last six. Momentum seems to go to the Yankees.
For Baseball Roundtable, it appears the game will rest on the bullpens (given the suspect nature of both starter’s late-September outings). I anticipate a close game, decided late (a key hit by Aaron Judge?) with contributions from the bullpens critical. Yankees 5 – Red Sox 3.
NL Wild Card – Dodgers over Cardinals … Look at the Numbers
The numbers have a lot to say about this one. The Dodgers scored the most runs in the National League (830) and gave up the fewest (561). The Cardinals scored the tenth-most tallies (706) and gave up the sixth-fewest (672). Clearly, edge LA – the team has more depth on the pitching staff and in the lineup. However, this is a one-game play-in, so depth is not as critical. But even for a one-game matchup, the Dodgers should have the edge. After all, who would you rather have on the mound to start one big game than Max Scherzer? He was 15-4, 2.46 on the season and 7-0, 1.98 in 11 starts for the Dodgers. Further, Scherzer faced the Cardinals twice this season, going 2-0 without giving up a run (14 innings), while fanning 22 and walking just one.,
Not to say that Adam Wainwright of the Cardinals is chopped liver. The forty-year old went 17-7, 3.05 in 32 starts and 4-0, 3.44 in six September outings. Against the Dodgers, he was 1-0, 4.32 in one 2021 start. Still, Scherzer should be the difference. And, if Scherzer pitches late into the game (which I anticipate he will), Blake Treinen (1.99 ERA in 72 appearances) and Kenley Jansen (2.22 ERA and 38 saves) should finish the job. (Note: The Cardinals’ bullpen is headed by closer Giovanny Gallegos, who took over the role in late August and led MLB with 11 saves for the month.) Overall, the Dodger pen put up a 3.16 ERA for the season, the Cardinals 3.97.
While the Dodgers’ offense may miss Matt Muncy (elbow) and his 36 home-run power, they still can put out a lineup with five players with 20 or more home runs and Trea Turner’s .338 average. With Justin turner, Will Smith, AJ Pollock and more, the Dodgers still have plenty of firepower.
Even with all this, the Redbirds have reason for hope. One, they have some momentum (a 17-game September winning streak and a 23-9 record since September 1. Two, like the Dodgers they are starting their ace in Wainwright. Three, they have three players 30+ home run this season: Paul Goldschmidt (.294-31-99); Nolan Arenado (.255-34-105); and Tyler O’Neill (.286-34-80). A big day by one of the big three could make a difference.
Baseball Roundtable is betting on Scherzer and a Dodgers’ win … 5-2.
Primary Resource: Baseball-Reference.com
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