Well, the MLB award season is about to move into full swing. With that in mind, Baseball Roundtable would like to share some predictions and preferences for Rookie of the Year, Most Valuable Player and Cy Young Awards. So let’s get started.
ROOKIE OF THE YEAR
National League …
Photo by slgckgc 
Okay, this is an easy one. The Mets’ Pete Alonso, at 6’3”, 240-pounds, looks like a power hitter. And, the 24-year-old lived up to that visual promise. What did he do as a rookie?
- Led all of MLB in home runs with 53 (setting a new MLB rookie season record in the process).
- Drove in 120 runs, third in the NL.
- Scored 103 runs (ninth in the NL).
- Generated 348 total bases (second in the NL).
- Made his first All Star team and won the All Star Game Home Run Derby.
He did all this while playing in 161 games (second in the NL) and hitting .260, with a .583 slugging percentage (second in the NL). Game. Set. Match.
The fact is, Alonso simply outdistanced (how many feet of home runs did he hit?) the Braves’ 22-year-old righty Mike Soroka, who went 13-4, 2.68, and Padres’ Fernando Tatis, Jr. (.317-22-53, with 16 steals). The 20-year-old Tatis – also an outstanding fielder and skilled base runner – was an early ROY favorite and would have given Alonso a run for the honor if back issues had not limited him to 84 games.
BBRT Prediction: Pete Alonso.
BBRT Selection: Pete Alonso.
American League …
The Astros’ Yordan Alvarez – like the Mets’ rookie Pete Alonso – is a big man who plays big. The 6’5”, 225-pound, left-handed hitter put u p a .313 average, with 27 home runs and 78 RBI in just 87 games (he made his MLB debut in early June). His .314 average was second among AL rookies with at least 200 at bats. (The Twins’ Luis Arreaz hit .334). Alvarez’ 27 home runs trailed only the White Sox’ Eloy Jimenez’ 31. (Jimenez played in 35 more games.) And, Alvarez’ 78 RBI trailed Jimenez by one. The only drawback to Alvarez’ spot among the finalists is that he started 74 of his 83 games at DH. If he captures the Rookie of the Year award, he will be the first primarily DH to do so.
National League ROY finalist Brandon Lowe appeared in the starting Rays’ stating lineup at @B, 1B, RF, LF and DH.
The other finalists were the Rays’ 25-year-old Brandon Lowe, who hit .270-17-51 in 82 games (and get extra points for versatility) and the Orioles’ 26-year-old southpaw John Means, who went 12-11, 3.60 for the Orioles.
BBRT Prediction: Yordan Alvarez.
BBRT Selection: Yordan Alvarez.
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Most Valuable Player
National League
Photo by IDSportsPhoto
This is definitely a three-way race – and any of the three finalists could come away with the honors. Brewers’ RF Christian Yelich, the 2018 NL MVP tied for the batting title – hitting .329. He also bashed 44 home runs (fourth in the NL); drove in 97 runs; scored 100 runs; and led the NL in both on-base percentage (.429) and slugging percentage (.671). Still, he played in only 130 games – missing most of September due to a knee injury.
The Dodgers’ Cody Bellinger drew an MLB leading 21 intentional walks in 2019.
Photo by Lorie Shaull
Then there is the Dodgers’ RF/1B Cody Bellinger – who put up a .305 average, with 47 home runs (third in the NL), 351 total bases (first in the NL), 115 RBI (seventh); and 121 runs scored (second). Clearly, his offense helped drive the Dodgers. In his favor are both his plus defense and speed (15 stolen bases). Bellinger also had a solid walks-to-whiffs ratio (95 BB/108 K).
The Nationals’ Anthony Rendon led the NL in RBI generated when hitting with two out and runners in scoring position (37). Rendon hit .362-6-37 in those clutch situations.
Finally, we have Nationals’ 3B Anthony Rendon, who hit .319 (third in the NL), with 34 home runs, tallied an NL-leading 126 RBI and scored 117 runs (third in the NL). In addition, Rendon was fourth among NL third sackers in putouts, third in assists and third in double plays. Like Bellinger, Rendon also was solid in the walks-to-strikeouts department (80 BB/86 K).
BBRT: Prediction: Cody Bellinger.
BBRT Selection: Anthony Rendon. (I lean toward Rendon because of the “valuable” role he played in the Nationals’ rebound from a 19-31 start to the season.)
American League …
Photo by KA Sports Photos
If the award were for the Best Player, BBRT would see Mike Trout winning hands down. Despite missing the last half of September (foot injury), Trout – always an MVP candidate – had one of his best seasons ever. He hit a healthy .291, with 45 homers (second in the AL), 104 RBI (ninth), 110 runs scored (sixth) and 11 stolen bases. He also led the AL in both on-base percentage (.438) and slugging percentage (.645) and had 110 walks (second in the AL) and 120 strikeouts.
The Astros’ Alex Bregman was the only MLB player with enough at bats to qualify for the batting title to have more walks than strikeouts in 2019.
Photo by KA Sports Photos
Next up is Astros’ 3B Alex Bregman who hit .296, with 41 home runs (second in the AL), 112 RBI (fifth); and 122 runs scored (fourth). Bregman also had 119 walks (first in the AL) versus only 83 strikeouts. He was second in on-base percentage at .423 (to Trout’s .438) and third in slugging percentage (.592). One key to Bregman’s candidacy is his willingness to fill in at shortstop for the Astros when Carlos Correa was down. On the season, Bregman started 91 games at 3B and 59 at SS.
Of the three American League MVP finalists, A’s shortstop Marcus Semien had the most total bases (343, second in the AL) and the most extra-base hits (83, third in the AL).
Finally, there is the A’s shortstop Marcus Semien – a stabilizing influence in the field and in the lineup. Semien played in all 162 games. On defense, he led all AL shortstops in assists, double plays and fielding percentage, and was second in putouts. At the plate, he had an outstanding year – going .285-33-92, with ten steals and 123 runs scored (third in the AL). Semien finished second in total bases (343). He also finished third in the league in doubles (43) and fifth in triples (7).
BBRT Prediction: Mike Trout. (In his seven full seasons, Trout has won two MVP Awards, finished second four times and fourth once. I think the voters are going to reward that ongoing excellence.)
BBRT Selection: Alex Bregman. (These are three deserving candidates. For me, the value Bregman delivered filling at SS, gives him a slight edge.)
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CY Young Award
National League
Photo by slgckgc
Jacob deGrom won the 2018 Cy Young Award with 10-9 record (in 32 starts), an MLB-low 1.70 earned run average and 269 strikeouts (second in the NL) in 217 innings (second in the NL), This season, he put up similar numbers: an 11-8 record (32 starts); a 2.43 earned run average (second in the NL); and an NL-leading 255 whiffs in 204 innings pitched (third in the NL). DeGrom also finished second in the league in Walks and Hits Per Nine Innings (WHIP) at 0.971, fourth in K’s per nine innings (11.25) and fourth in strikeouts-versus-walks ratio (5.80).
When the Mets’ Jason deGrom won the 2018 Cy Young Award with a 10-9 record, it was the fewest wins ever by a staring pitcher who captured the CYA.
Max Scherzer is also a finalist for NL CYA. The three-time Cy Young Award winner went 11-7 in 27 starts, with a 2.92 earned run average (sixth in the NL) and 243 strikeouts (third) in 172 1/3 innings. He finished first in the league in strikeouts per nine innings (12.69); fourth in WHIP (1.027); and first in strikeouts-versus-walks ratio (7.36).
The third finalist is the Dodgers’ Hyun-Jin Ryu, who went 14-5, with an NL and MLB-lowest 2.32 earned run average in 29 starts. Ryu is not in the same league deGrom and Scherzer when it comes to strikeouts (163 in 182 2/3 innings, but his strikeouts-to-walks ratio (6.79) was second only to Scherzer in the senior circuit and his WHIP of 1.01 placed him third in the league.
Three finalists, with a combined total of just 36 wins, guess you need to go deeper into the numbers.
BBRT: Prediction: Jacob deGrom (His leadership in strikeouts and WHIP give him a slight edge, as does the fact that he is the only one of three finalists to each 200 innings pitched.)
BBRT Selection: Jacob deGrom.
American League …
Photo by KA Sports Photos
While the NL CYA finalists won only 36 games combined, the three AL finalists put up 57 victories – and, the AL finalists lineup includes the only two twenty-game winners from the past season.
The Astros’ Justin Verlander led all of MLB with 21 victories (just six losses). His 2.58 earned run average was second in the AL; his Walks and Hits per Nine Innings (WHIP) was first in the AL and MLB at 0.83; He fanned an even 300 batters in 223 innings (leading the AL in innings pitched), while walking just 42 (for an AL-best 7.14 strikeouts-to-walks ratio. In any other year, this might have been a cakewalk for Verlander.
In 2019, Justin Verlander threw a no-hitter against the Blue Jays (September 1). It was his third career no-hitter – making him just the sixth pitcher in MLB history to throw three or more no-hit games. Verlander walked one and fanned 14 in the game.
But wait. The Astros’ Gerrit Cole notched twenty wins (five losses); put up the junior circuit’s lowest ERA at 2.50 and led the league (and all of MLB) with 326 strikeouts (in 212 1/3 innings). His WHIP (0.90) was second only to Verlander in MLB and he led the way in whiffs per nine innings at 13.81 (the only qualifying pitcher to top 13.00). In strikeouts-to-walks ratio, Cole (at 6.79) finished second to Verlander in the AL.
Also, in the race is the Rays’ Charlie Morton who went 16-6, 3.05, with 240 strikeouts in 194 2/3 innings. A solid year, but it’s tough to compete with two twenty-game winners, who both notched at least 300 strikeouts and sported ERA’s under 2.60.
The Astros’ Gerrit Cole did not lose a game after May 22 – going 16-0, 1.78 in 22 starts.
BBRT Prediction: Justin Verlander. (Wow, you could hardly slip a piece of paper between the Justine Verlander and Gerrit Cole stat sheets. BBRT thinks the voters will look at the one extra win, the no-hitter and leadership in innings pitched as tiebreakers and go with Verlander. Had Verlander fallen one short of 300K, this one might have swung to Gerrit Cole.)
BBRT Pick: Gerrit Cole. (Hedging my bet, I’m going to go with Cole. Yes, one less win, but also one less loss (giving him a nice round .800 winning percentage to Verlander’s .778). Then there are the 13+ whiffs per nine and MLB-tops 326 strikeouts.)
Primary Resources: Baseball-Reference.com; MLB.com
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