Here are BBRT National League Predictions
NL East Winner
Braves
Tough to pick against the Phillies – with a starting rotation of that features Halladay, Lee, Hamels and the rapidly emerging Worley (11-3, 3.01 era in 25 starts last year.) The offense, however, was pretty much average a year ago and has gotten worse with Ryan Howard out perhaps until May, Chase Utley’s bum knee and uncertainty surrounding Polanco. Add to that the fact the Jim Thome is 41 and Jim Rollins, at 33 (while he still flashes leather), has been on an offensive decline.
All this opens the door for Atlanta – but they don’t have to back in. Plenty of power and a nice blend of veterans and youth in what looks to be a solid line-up. Key concerns also blend veterans (What does Chipper Jones have left at 40?) and youth (Is Pastornicky ready to take over shortstop at 22?). BBRT sees the Braves passing the Phillies with just enough offense, a strong bullpen (led by 2011 Rookie of the year Craig Kimbrel and Jonny Venters) and a young and improving rotation – plus plenty of motivation after last year’s late season collapse. Dark Horse – maybe the Phillies rotation can keep them afloat until Howard and Utley return, especially if Jones or Pastornicky falter.
NL Central Winner
Cardinals
No Pujols, no La Russa, still another Central Division title. There are some “ifs” – if Wainwright returns to pre-surgery form; if the two Bees (Berkman and Beltran) still have plenty in the tank at 35; if Jason Motte can step up and grab the closer role for a full season; if Mike Matheny is ready to manage. At BBRT. we think the answer is “yes” to all of the above. Add the bats of Matt Holliday and David Freese; a full year of Furcal’s stabilizing glove at shortstop; and a solid, if not spectacular, rotation led by Carpenter and Wainwright and the Cardinals will have just enough to hold off the Brewers and the Reds.
NL West Winner
Diamondbacks
Arizona’s offense or San Francisco’s pitching? Tough choice, but BBRT goes with the Diamondbacks. The main reason? Justin Upton, just 24 years old and an MVP (and 30-30) candidate. Look for offensive contributions behind Upton from Jason Kubel, Miguel Montero, Ryan Roberts and up-and-coming power hitter Paul Goldschmidt. Ian Kennedy and Daniel Hudson – who won 37 games and pitched 444 inning between them last year – will head a rotation that gets a little shaky at the backend (especially given some questions at middle relief). The end game looks to be in good hands with J.J. Putz and David Hernandez and BBRT has always like Brad Ziegler’s sinker and versatility. Dark horse here: The Giants with Lincecum, Cain and Bumgarner have the arms to stay in the race (We’ll also be watching to see if Vogelsong is “for real”. The bet is Volgelsong will slide a bit and the Giants’ offense will leave them a little short.
Wild Card
Philadelphia (led by their pitching) and Milwaukee (Braun beats the suspension and newcomers Aramis Ramirez and Alex Gonzalez, plus Cory Hart provide all the offense starters Zack Grienke, Shaun Marcum, Yovani Gallardo, Randy Wolf and Chris Narveson (who won a combined 70 games in 2011) need. Dark Horse: Washington could sneak in if Bryce Harper and Strasberg shine.
Rookie of the Year
Bryce Harper … The Nationals will not be able to keep this hot-hitting prospect down on the farm. He’ll be called up by June and do enough to earn ROY. Other contenders: Julio Teheran (Braves will need him to hold off the Phillies, just needs a little seasoning); Drew Pomeranz (left hander has the stuff to help the Rockies now); Alfredo Silverio (this Dodger is more of a long shot, but has extra base power and speed – at the right price for a troubled franchise).
Cy Young
Cliff Lee will edge out fellow Phillies Roy Halladay and Cole Hamels – with 19 wins, a sub 2.60 era and 225 whiffs. In the mix: Stephen Strasburg, Matt Cain and Clayton Kershaw.
MVP
Justin Upton will lead Arizona with a 30-30 season and edges out a motivated Matt Kemp. Others in the Mix: the Reds’ Joey Votto and the Rockies’ Troy Tulowitski.
Big Surprise in 2012 … Pirates and Nationals both with a chance to finish over .500.
