The 2018 MLB season is upon us and it’s time (actually past time) for BBRT predictions. (Last year’s preview was on the site by early March.) For more on why BBRT is running late this year, see the recent National League Preview by clicking here. However, before taking a look forward at the American League a few comments on yesterday’s Opening Day.
AND IT WASN’T EVEN APRIL 4 …
Regular readers know that BBRT often focuses on (some would say dwells upon) the fact that today’s game has become a hard-throwing/free-swinging affair – dominated by strikeouts and home runs. If Opening Day is any indication, we are due for more of the same in 2018. Yesterday’s 13 games featured 264 strikeouts and 33 long balls.
Oh, why the April 4 reference? One highlight of Opening Day 2018 was White Sox DH Matt Davidson’s three-homer day (four runs scored and five RBI as Chicago topped Kansas City 14-7). It made Davidson just the fourth player to hit three dingers on Day One – and the three others all did it on April 4. The Blue’ Jays George Bell (April 4, 1988); Cubs’ Tuffy Rhodes (April 4, 1994); and Tigers’ Dmitri Young (April 4, 2005).
Other 2018 Opening Day “HR-K” highlights:
- The Cubs’ Ian Happ hit the very first pitch of the season for a round tripper; Giancarlo Stanton hit a pair of homers in his first game as a Yankee; the White Sox hit six long balls off Royals’ pitchers.
- The Mets’ Noah Syndegaard fanned ten in six inning against the Cardinals; the Twins’ Zach Duke joined the ranks of pitchers to fan four batters in an inning; last year’s AL strikeout king, Boston’s Chris Sale, whiffed nine in six innings of one-hit ball versus the Rays; and Cleveland’s Corey Kluber went the distance in a 2-1 loss to Seattle, fanning eight in eight innigs.
For those interested in such things, the record for batters fanned in an Opening Day game is 15 – by the Senators Camilo Pascual on April 18, 1960 – in a three-hit, complete-game, 10-1 win over the Red Sox.
Now let’s take a look at the American League for 2018. I might add that coming in with the preview as the season opens does create some interesting situations. Since I’ve been working on these two posts: Greg Holland has signed with the Cardinals; the Royals’ five-time All Star catcher Salvador Perez has gone down with a luggage-related injury; the Rays, already planning on a four-man rotation, lost one of the four (Nathan Eovaldi) to elbow surgery; and Orioles’ manager Buck Showalter crossed me up by batting last year’s cleanup hitter Chris Davis – who has struck out more than 600 times in the past three seasons – in the leadoff spot on Opening Day. Anyway, here are BBRT’s predicted AL standings and major award winners. For those who want more, the post ends with a team-by-team evaluation.
A word of caution. What follows are my own opinions and conjecture – not the result of any inside insight or info – and they were, for the most part, penned (keyboarded) before final rosters were released. Also, I won’t be looking at the entire roster … primarily the lineup, rotation and key bullpen occupants.
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BBRT AMERICAN LEAGUE PREDICTIONS (Playoff Teams in Bold).
EAST
New York Yankees
Boston Red Sox – Wild Card
Toronto Blue Jays
Baltimore Orioles
Tampa Bay Rays
CENTRAL
Cleveland Indians
Minnesota Twins – Wild Card
Chicago White Sox.
Kansas City Royals
Detroit Tigers
WEST
Houston Astros
Seattle Mariners
Los Angeles Angels
Oakland A’s
Texas Rangers
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BBRT PREDICTED AMERICAN LEAGUE AWARD WINNERS
MOST VALUABLE PLAYER
Photo by apardavila 
Jose Altuve, 2B, Astros …. What can we expect from one of MLB’s best, shortest and most popular players? The answer: 150+ games (he’s done it five years in a row); 200+ hits (four straight seasons); .310+ average (four straight seasons); 100+ runs (two straight seasons); 20+ home runs (two straight seasons); 80+ RBI (two straight seasons); 30+ stolen bases (six straight seasons). You get the idea. Last year, Altuve won his first MVP Award – along with his third batting title. He hit .346 (with 204 hits), scored 112 runs, hit 24 home runs, drove in 81 and stole 32 bases in 38 tries. It would surprise no one if he did it all again. He will lead the Astros to another Division Title and should earn his second MVP.
Other Contenders: Carlos Correa, SS, Astros … The former 2017 All Star and 2015 Rookie of the Year is ready to help lead the Astros to another West Division title. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him best all his 2017 numbers (.315-24-84); Giancarlo Stanton, OF, Yankees … The presence of last year’s NL MVP makes the Yankees reminiscent of the Bronx Bombers of the past. He may not match last season’s .281-59-132, but he will do enough to be in the running for MVP. Honorable Mention: You can’t talk AL MVP without mentioning Angels’ CF Mike Trout, who (in his six full MLB seasons) has finished second, second, first, second, first and fourth in the balloting. Expect Trout to be in the ..300-30-100, 20 steals “neighborhood.”
CY YOUNG AWARD
Photo by Keith Allison
Chris Sale, LHP, Red Sox … Last year, Sale went 17-8, 2.90 and led the AL in innings pitched (214 1/3) and strikeouts (308) … and still finished second in the CYA vote. In an eight-season career, he’s 91-58, 2.98 and has fanned 10.5 batters per nine, while walking just 2.1. Sale is due.
Other Contenders: Corey Kluber, RHP, Indians … Last year’s American League CYA winner (and 2014’s) is well equipped to defend his title. He was 18-4, 2.25, with 265 whiffs in 203 2/3 innings in 2017 and show no signs of letting up; David Price, LHP, Red Sox … I just think the 31-year-old Price is going to deliver on his promise this year and put up numbers close to his 2012 National League CYA season. Of course, pitching in the shadow of teammate Chris Sale may cost him votes and a sport in the top five.
ROOKIE OF THE YEAR
Willie Calhoun, OF, Rangers … Calhoun didn’t make the Rangers’ Opening Day roster, but I expect him back sooner rather than later. Just 22-years-old, Calhoun hit .300, with 31 home runs and 93 RBI at Triple A last season. He also handled himself well (.265-1-4) in a 13-game “look-see” with the Rangers. He should not have to spend much time back at Triple A, particularly if the Rangers don’t contend.
Other Contenders: Shohei Ohtani, P/DH, Angels … Okay, gotta go with the hype, but after Spring Training, I’m not convinced the “Japanese Babe Ruth” will be in the running for Rookie of the Year. Still, if he can deliver even half of what’s expected, he needs to be on this list; Chance Sisco, C, Orioles … First, what a great baseball name. Second, he hit .429 this spring. Third, he has a .311 average in five minor league seasons. Fourth, he’s got a good chance of at least sharing the catching duties in Baltimore. Fifth, he’s well worth a “chance,” particularly once the Orioles fall out of contention.
Now, how about a team-by-team look ahead.
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AMERICAN LEAGUE EAST
- Yankees 94-68 (2017 …91-71)
Photo by Corn Farmer
Okay, the Yankees picked up the prize of the off-season – trading for masher Giancarlo Stanton (pictured). This team now looks a lot the “Bronx Bombers” that used to terrorize the American League. Not only that, there’s a nice blend of proven veterans and youngsters who have already shown (and should continue to grow into) their potential. A year ago, without Stanton’s MVP-caliber performance, they barely lost the East to the Red Sox. This year, it should belong to the Yankees.
A NEW ACE TAKES HOLD
The Yankees’ starting rotation, I believe, is underrated. In the AL, only the Indians’ starting staff had a lower ERA (3.52 to the Yankees’ 3.98). The staff has a nice blend of youth and experience. It starts with Luis Severino – the 24-year-old who finished third in the Cy Young voting after a 14-6, 2.98 season that included 230 strikeouts in 193 1/3 innings. There’s another emerging young talent at the far end of the rotation – 25-year-old Jordan Montgomery, who went 9-7, 3.88 in 29 starts (and put up a 2.57 ERA over 300 2/3 minor league innings). Both these youngsters looked solid in Spring Training.
On the veteran side of the ledger, the Bombers have 2017 trading deadline pickup Sonny Gray (10-12, 3.55 for Oakland and New York). Gray, 28, is in his fifth MLB season and was an All Star in 2015. Then there is Masahiro Tanaka, in his fourth campaign with the Yankees (coming off his worst season – 13-12, 4.74). Tanaka’s career MLB record is 52-28, 3.56 – and, even in last year’s somewhat disappointing season, he fanned 194 batters in 178 1/3 innings. Also in the rotation is the ageless CC Sabathia. Last season, at age 36, he put up a solid 14-5, 3.69 line. If any of these falter, New York has solid prospects like Chance Adams and Justus Sheffield waiting for an opportunity.
The bullpen is an area of strength for the NY squad, led by closer Aroldis Chapman and his 105 MPH heater. Also in the pen are Dellin Betances, David Robertson, Tommy Kahnle and Chad Green. All five of the aforementioned relievers had ERA’s under 3.00 and fanned more than 12 batters per nine innings.
POWER-POWER-POWER
The Yankees will mash – no doubt about it. In the middle of the lineup are newcomer DH/OF Giancarlo Stanton (.281-59-132 for Miami); C Gary Sanchez (.278-33-90); and, very likely, SS Didi Gregorius (.287-25-87). And we haven’t even mentioned RF Aaron Judge (expected to hit in the number-two hole), who set a new MLB rookie record with 52 home runs (.284 average, 114 RBI). Notably, none of these lineup mainstays is over the age of 28.
Greg Bird was penciled in to provide power at 1B, but is out 6-8 weeks with an ankle injury. It looks likes veteran Neil Walker (.265-14-49 for the Mets and Brewers) will slide over from his usual second base position to hold down the one bag until Bird returns. With All Star 2B Starlin Castro gone in the Stanton trade and Walker moving over to first, that leaves 2B for 23-year-old rookie Tyler Wade – who had troubles in a 2017 call up, but hit .310 at Triple A last year and .286 this spring. This leaves leadoff hitter LF Brett Gardner – a 20/20 player last season (.264-21-63, with 23 steals); CF Aaron Hicks (.255-15-52 in 88 games); and newcomer 3B Brandon Drury (.267-13-63 for Arizona).
ALL-IN-ALL
Today’s game has, in many ways, become a contest of strikeouts and home runs. This Yankee team is positioned to deliver both – and an East Division title.
PLAYER TO WATCH
Aaron Judge delivered 52 home runs in his rookie season. However, he was .329-30-66 before the All Star break (in 84 games) and .228-22-48 post break (71 games). BBRT will be watching: 1) To see if the fall off is because pitchers adjusted; 2) What difference having Giancarlo Stanton behind him in the lineup will make (Judge walked 127 times last season).
- Red Sox 90-72 (2017 … 93-69)
Photo by apardavila
The AL East is going to be close, with long-time rivals Red Sox and Yankees evenly matched. It may come down to the Red Sox and “four P’s” – the Pitching of David Price (pictured), Rick Porcello and Drew Pomeranz. If these three deliver, the Red Sox might just hold off the Yanks.
SALE AWAY WITH ME
The starting rotation, led by Chris Sale, is deep. Sale went 17-8, 2.90 last season and fanned a whopping 308 batters in 214 1/3 innings. He’s a Cy Young Award favorite. He’ll be followed by a pair of pitchers who already have Cy Young Awards on their resumes – David Price and Rick Porcello. Price (a five-time All Star and 2012 CYA winner) faced elbow issues and went 6-3, 3.38 with 76 K’s in 74 2/3 innings last season. He looked good out of the bullpen late in the season; had a solid spring; and was a 17-game winner for Boston in 2016. He looks more than ready to deliver as expected. Porcello, who won the 2016 Cy Young Award with a 22-4, 3.15, may pose a bigger question. Last season, Porcello struggled to an 11-17, 4.65 record – going from leading the AL in wins to leading the league in losses. If the 29-year-old can land somewhere in the middle of those numbers this season (say, 15 wins), the Red Sox might just outdistance the Yankees.
The final two rotation spots – to open the season – look to go to Hector Velazquez (3-1, 2.92) and Brian Johnson (2-0, 4.33). However, the Red Sox hope for quick return to action from Drew Pomeranz (17-6, 3.32, with 174 whiffs in 173 2/3 innings), who is on the Disabled List with a “mild flexor strain.”
The bullpen will again be led by closer Craig Kimbrel – who put up 35 saves, a 1.43 ERA and 126 strikeouts in 69 innings a year ago. The ninth inning is in good hands. Others coming in out of the pen: Matt Barnes (3.88 in 70 appearances, 83 K’s in 69 2/3 innings); Joe Kelly (whose triple-digit heat delivered a 2.79 ERA and 52 whiffs in 58 innings); and Heath Hembree (3.63 with 70 K’s in 62 innings). The Red Sox are also counting on help from 6’6″ Carson Smith, coming back from Tommy John surgery. In 2015, Smith pitched in 70 games for Seattle, with a 2.31 ERA 13 saves and 92 strikeouts in 70 innings. He could provide a boost. The bullpen (after Kimbrel) is not as flashy as the Yankees, but should be effective.
POWER OUTAGE
The Red Sox hit just 168 home runs in 2017 – the fewest in the American League and the fourth-fewest in MLB – with no Boston batter hitting more than 24 dingers.
The Red Sox worked to address a lineup power shortage by bringing in J.D. Martinez (OF/DH) – and he should help. Last season (Tigers and Diamondbacks), Martinez hit .303, with 45 home runs and 104 RBI. Joining Martinez in the lineup are a handful of players who reached the 20-HR mark a year ago: 1B Hanley Ramirez (.242-23-62 in 133 games – and with a 30-HR season as recent as 2016); RF Mookie Betts (.264-24-102, with a 31-HR season in 2016); and LF Andrew Benintendi (.271-20-90 in his rookie campaign).
Up the middle, the Red Sox will feature Xander Bogaerts. Bogaerts hit .273-10-62 with 15 steals last year. The Red Sox would like to see him closer to his .294-21-89 of 2016. With 2B Dustin Pedroia out for at least two month (knee surgery), Eduardo Nunez should take over the two-bag. He hit .313-12-58, with 24 steals (Giants and Red Sox) and Pedroia should not be missed. CF looks like Jackie Bradley Jr. (.245-17-63); 3B goes to 21-year-old Rafael Devers, who showed his potential with a .284-10-30 line for the Sox in 58 games a year ago; and C to Christian Vazquez (.290-5-32).
ALL-IN-ALL
The Red Sox just seem to fall a bit short of the powerful Yankee lineup and bullpen. What needs to happen for the Red Sox to top the East is for the three veteran “P’s” in the rotation (Price, Porcello and Pomeranz) and the three young “B’s” (Bogaerts, Betts and Benintendi) to deliver as expected.
PLAYER TO WATCH
Keep an eye on Rick Porcello, who went from the AL’s winningest pitcher in 2016 to the league’s loss leader in 2017. Where on that scale he comes down may determine whether the Red Sox hold off the Yankees.
- Blue Jays 82-80 (2017 … 76-86)
The Blue Jays are not as bad as they looked a year ago – this is not a ten-games under .500 squad. With better health (Aaron Sanchez/J.A. Happ/Troy Tulowitzki/Devon Travis), the Jays should once again move past the break-even spot on the W-L ledger.
A HEALTHY ROTATION IS A HAPP(y) ROTATION
J.A. Happ, who missed more than a month with an elbow injury, should lead the mound staff. Happ, who went 10-11, 3.53 last season, was a 20-game winner in 2016 (20-4, 3.18). The Jays need 15 wins out of a healthy Happ. Aaron Sanchez went to the Disabled List four times in 2017 (split nail/blisters) and finished 1-3, 4.25 in eight starts. If healthy, the 25-year-old could be a solid number-two. In 2016, he was an All Star and went 15-2, 3.00 in thirty starts. To be competitive, the Jays must keep Sanchez on the mound. Also in the rotation are Marcus Stroman (13-9, 3.09), who gave the Jays 200+ innings for the second year in a row; veteran Marco Estrada (10-9, 4.98); and newcomer Jaime Garcia (5-10, 4.41 with the Braves, Twins and Yankees). The health of Happ and Sanchez will be critical to Toronto’s success.
Young (23-years-old) Roberto Osuna (3.38 with 39 saves and 83 strikeouts in 64 innings) will be back to close out games. To get the ball from the starters to Osuna, the Jays have bolstered the pen. Newcomers include: Seung Hwan Oh (4.10 with 20 saves for the Cardinals); John Axford (6.43 ERA with the A’s, but 3.71 over nine MLB seasons); and Tyler Clippard (4.77 in 67 appearances with the Yankees, White Sox and Astros). Among the returnees are: Aaron Loup (2.64 in 33 games); Ryan Tepera 3.59 in 73 games); Danny Barnes (3.55 in 60 games). From this perspective, I’d place the Blue Jays’ pen in the middle of the AL relief hierarchy. Not a match for New York or Boston.
Photo by Terry Foote
HE’LL SMOAK A FEW BASEBALLS
The face of the offense (pictured) is 3B Josh Donaldson (.270-33-78), who delivers All Star numbers every year. His protection in the lineup can be found at the other corner – 1B Justin Smoak. Smoak, a switch-hitter, had a breakthrough season at age 30 – going .270-38-90. His previous career highs were: average – .239; home runs – 20; RBI – 59. The Jays need the new Smoak to show up again. Newcomer LF Curtis Granderson (.212-26-64 with the Mets and Dodgers) is likely to leadoff, followed by 2B Devon Travis. Travis played in only 50 games last season (knee) and hit .259-5-24. He is, however, a .292 career hitter – three seasons, 213 games – and could move into the leadoff role.
Gone from the Blue Jays is long–time offensive threat, six-time All Star and fan-friendly Jose “Joey Bats” Bautista – still an unsigned free agent as this is being written. Bautista, who hit 288 home runs in ten seasons with Toronto (2008-2017) hit .203-23-65 in his last season with the Jays.
The shortstop position should eventually go to Troy Tulowitzki (currently out with a bone spur). Tulo hit .249-7-26 in 66 games last season – but, if healthy, has 20-25 home run and 80-85 RBI power. Until he’s ready, which may be some time in mid-season, it looks like Aledmys Diaz (.259-7-20 in 79 games with the Cardinals) will handle short. DH will provide some punch from Kendrys Morales (.250-28-85), as will RF, with newcomer Randall Grichuk (.238-22-59 with the Cardinals.) The final two spots being to C Russell Martin (.221-13-35 in 91 games) and defensive wizard CF Kevin Pillar (.256-16-42, with 15 steals).
ALL-IN-ALL
The Blue Jay, just be getting healthy, should improve on last season’s sub-.500 record. They still, however, are not likley to challenge the Yankees and Red Sox.
PLAYER TO WATCH
Aaron Sanchez, just 25-years-old, has a tremendous upside. Just look at 2016’s 15-2, 3.00 record. If the Jays can keep him healthy – particularly addressing blister issues – he can be a force in 2017.
- Orioles 81-81 (2017 … 75-87)
Photo by Keith Allison
Only the Tigers had a higher staff ERA in the American League than the Orioles (4.97) – and Baltimore’s starting rotation had the worst ERA in all of baseball at 5.70. They addressed that issue by bringing in Andre Cashner and Alex Cobb – from Texas and Tampa Bay – who both logged ERA’s under 4.00 last season.
Dylan Bundy (13-9, 4.24 in his second full MLB season and first full season as a starter) will be expected to lead the staff. Another full year of experience should make Bundy (pictured) even more effective. Andrew Cashner (11-11, 3.40 in 28 starts for Texas) should provide some help, as should another newcomer, Alex Cobb, who went 12-10, 3.66 in 29 starts for Tampa Bay.
Then there is the puzzling Kevin Gausman, who needs to develop some consistency. This past season he was 5-7, 5.85 before the All Star break and a solid 6-5, 3.41 after. The Orioles hope that last-half success continues into 2018, but there is no guarantee. Gausman followed a similar pattern in 2016 – 1-6, 4.15 before the break and 8-6, 3.10 after. Those second-half surges keep creating hope for a full season of consistent performance. A full season of “Second-Half Kevin” could boost the Orioles fortunes – and, maybe, even put them in contention for a Wild Card spot. The Orioles are also looking for a bounce back from Chris Tillman, who suffered through a shoulder injury in 2017, going 1-7, 7.84 and pitching just 93 innings. From 2012-2016, Tillman went 65-33, 3.81 and twice pitched 200 innings in a season.
While the rotation looks improved, the bullpen took a hit, in the form of closer Zach Britton’s ruptured Achilles tendon, suffered while working out in December. He will start the season on the 60-Day Disable List
How important is Zach Britton? Between October 1, 2015 and August 21, 2017 – all with the Orioles – Britton converted an American League record 60 consecutive save opportunities. The streak ended with a blown save on August 23.
Brandon Brach (3.18, 18 saves) should handle the closer role. The Orioles will get the ball to him with a pretty effective bullpen group, including: Darren O’Day (3.43 with 76 strikeouts in 60 1/3 innings); Mychal Givens (2.75 with 88 K’s in 78 2/3 and projected as the Orioles’ next closer); Miguel Castro (3.53 in 39 games): and Richard Bleier (1.99 in 57 appearances). Note: Castro could also be a candidate for the rotation, if anyone falters, down the road. Last season, the Orioles had the AL’s sixth-best bullpen ERA. They should be in that range again.
POWER UP THE MIDDLE
The middle of the lineup features a couple of unusual power sources (well, not so unusual in these days of strikeouts and long balls) – 2B Jonathan Schoop, who is not only skilled at turning the double play, but also contributed a .293-32-105 batting line; CF Adam Jones (.285-26-73), who has hit at least 25 long balls in every season since 2011; and SS Manny Machado (Yes, Machado is moving to short), who popped 33 homers and drove in 95 last year. Note: Machado may bat second.
The Orioles stole an MLB-low 32 baseS last season. The next lowest was 53 by the Blue Jays, while the Angels led the way with 136 bags swiped.
1B Chris Davis is another power source, but at a price – he’s hit 111 home runs over the past three campaigns, but also struck out 622 times. Last season, Davis went .215-26-61 in 128 games. Joining Adam Jones in the OF will be Trey Mancini (.293-24-78 as a rookie) and veteran newcomer Colby Rasmus (.281-9-23 in 37 games for Tampa Bay), possibly platooning with Craig Gentry (.257-2-11 in 77 games). Note: Mancini, prospect Anthony Santander and DH Mark Trumbo (out with a quad strain until mid-April) could also see time at 1B.
Tim Beckham (.278-22-62 with Tampa Bay and Baltimore) should play third base and lead off. Caleb Joseph and youngster Chance Sisco should share the backstop duties. DH duties may fall to switch-hitting OF prospect Anthony Santander – at least until Mark Trumbo (.234-23-65) is ready.
Side note: Manager Buck Showalter surprised BBRT by batting power-hitter and free-swinger Chris Davis in the leadoff spot on Opening Day.
ALL-IN-ALL
An improved rotation, a dependable bullpen and lineup with power (if not speed) should put the Orioles at or near .500.
PLAYER TO WATCH
I’d focus on Manny Machado on defense. The three-time Gold Glover at third base is moving to shortstop – his natural position and where he says his “heart has been” all along. Machado has been compared to Brooks Robinson at 3B, will we now compare him to Cal Ripken Jr. at short. (Ironically, Ripken made the opposite move – from shortstop to third base later in his career.)
- Rays 72-90 (2017 … 80-82)
When the Major League Baseball Players Association files a grievance against your team – asserting you are pocketing revenue sharing money instead of using it to improve the team – you know you have issues. (To be fair, the Marlins, Pirates and A’s were also named in the grievance.)
So what DO the Rays look like for 2018? No much like the team that won 80 games a year ago. Gone are Evan Longoria (trade); Logan Morrison (free agency); Alex Cobb (free agency); Jake Odorizzi (trade); Stephen Souza, Jr. (trade); Corey Dickerson (trade); Tommy Hunter (free agency); Lucas Duda (free agency); Brad Boxberger (trade); and more. Read on to see who will take their roster spots.
FOUR-MAN ROTATION. OLD SCHOOL OR NEW BUDGET?
The rotataton gets off to a familiat start with returnee Chris Archer (10-12, 4.07), who has number-one stuff when he puts it all together. Numbers two and three (formerly occupied by Cobb and Odorizzo) now go to the still developing 25-year-old Blake Snell (5-7, 4.04 last year – his second MLB season) and 24-year-old Jake Faria (5-4, 3.43 in his rookie season). Note: I do think Snell may be ready for a breakout season. Next up is Nathan Eovaldi (9-8, 4.76 for the Yankees – and recovering from a second Tommy John surgery). The fifth starter? Oh yeah, the Rays appear to be ready to start the campaign with a four-man rotation. When the need a fifth starter is needed, Tampa Bay manager Kevin Cash says it’s going to be “a bullpen day.” Is this “old school baseball” or “new budgeting finances?” I’ll let you be the judge.
NOTE: Since these paragraphs were penned, Eovaldi has gone on the Disabled List (elbow) and the Rays are already looking to “TBD” as a potential starter. In short, the rotation appears up in the air. Let’s hope TBD has a good fastball.
Gone are experienced bullpen arms like Brad Boxberger, Steve Cishek and Tommy Hunter. Alex Colome (3.24 with 47 saves last season) is back to close. After that, however, the pen (Remember, there will be “bullpen days.”) is a bit inexperienced. Some of the arms out there should include: Andrew Kitteridge (1.76 in 15 games) in his second MLB season; Chaz Roe (2.53 in 12 games with the Braves and Rays); and 22-year-old Joe Alvarado, who can reach triple-digits on the gun. . The Rays did resign veteran Sergio Romo (3.56 in 55 games) and also have Matt Andriese (who went 5-5, 4.50 a year ago – primarily as a starter) for extended innings on bullpen days.
LOGAN’S RUN
The Rays will no doubt miss the 125 home runs contributed by 1B.DH Logan Morrison (38 HR); LF Corey Dickerson (27 HR); RF Steven Souza, Jr. (30 HR); and 3B Evan Longoria (20 HR). Remember this is a team that scored 48 percent of its runs on the long ballast year. Let’s look at the lineup.
Photo by Keith Allison
3B Matt Duffy (hampered by heel issues) hit .258-5-28 with eight steals in 91 games (Giants and Rays) last year. The 27-year-old is a .281 hitter in 274 career games and will likely leadoff. Returning CF Kevin Kiermaier (pictured), who can track pretty much anything out in the garden, has health issues. He hit .276-15-39, with 16 steals in 98 games last year. He’s played just 203 games over the past two seasons, but could be a 20/20 guy if healthy. The power in the middle will have to come from RF Carlos Gomez (.255-17-51 in 105 games for Texas); 1B C.J. Cron (.248-16-56 in 100 games for the Angels); and returning C Wilson Ramos (.260-11-35 in 64 games). Filling out the order are: LF Denard Span (.272-12-43 with the Giants), who could also be a top of the order place setter; SS Andy Hechavarria (.261-8-30 in 97 games with the Marlins and Rays); and DH Brad Miller (.209-9-40 in 110 games).
ALL-IN-ALL
Pretty simply, the Rays do not have the mound or lineup resources to contend in the top-loaded East Division. They also seem to be lacking in “names” that might excite the crowd despite the W-L record. It will be a long year in Tampa Bay.
PLAYER TO WATCH
I like 24-year-old Mallex Smith, who can play all three OF spots, and hit .270-2-12, with 16 steals (81 games) as a rookie. He hit .294, with 251 stolen bases in 446 minor league games and – if he gets the playing time (he should) – could add some speed and excitement to the Rays’ game. Also, put a “watch” on Christian Arroyo, a third base prospect acquired from the Giants in the Longoria trade. The 22-year-old, who suffered a broken hand last season, hit .396 with four home runs and 16 RBI at Triple A last year (although he did have some trouble at the MLB level). He has hit .300 in 368 minor league games, is a versatile defender, hit over .300 this Spring Training and could take over third base for the Rays sooner rather than later.
CENTRAL DIVISION
- Indians 95-67 (2017 … 102-60)
The Indians are clearly ready to capture their third straight Central Division title – and they will do it with one of the best pitching staffs in MLB.
A few Indians’ 2017 pitching “factoids.”
- The Indians had the best starting rotation ERA in the AL – 3.52
- The Indians had the best bullpen ERA in the AL – 2.89
- The Indians had the best overall ERA in MLB – 3.30
- Indians’ pitchers led MLB in strikeouts – 1,614
- Indians’ pitchers gave up the fewest home runs in MLB – 163
COREY STARTS – CODY RELIEVES
Photo by apardavila
Even with the possibility of Danny Salazar and his electric stuff missing Opening Day (shoulder), the Indians return a “lights out” rotation. The “ace” is Corey Kluber (pictured), the two-time and defending Cy Young Award winner, who went 18-4, 2.25 and fanned 265 batters in 203 2/3 innings last year. Next up is Carlos Carrasco (18-6, 3.29), who fanned 226 batmen in 200 innings. And you go down the rotation with: Trevor Bauer (17-9, 4.19 with 196 whiffs in 176 1/3 innings); Josh Tomlin (10-9, 4.98); and Mike Clevinger (12-6, 3.11). The Indians are hoping for an early return to the mound for Danny Salazar (rotator cuff). Salazar fanned 145 batters in 103 innings last season.
The Indians lost a couple of pieces from the bullpen in the offseason, specifically free-agent Bryan Shaw, who appeared in a league-leading 79 games (and fanned 73 batters in 76 2/3 innings) and Joe Smith, who appeared in 59 games (Toronto and Cleveland) and fanned 71 in 54 innings. Still, there is plenty left in the pen.
Cody Allen (2.94 with 30 saves and 92 strikeouts in 67 1/3 innings) returns to close things out. Allen has saved at least 30 contests in each of the past three seasons. Andrew Miller (1.44 in 57 games) will be the setup man. Other bullpen arms include: Dan Otero (2.85 in 52 games); Zach McAllister (2.61 in 50 games); and Nick Goody (2.80 in 56 games). The Indians will miss Shaw, but there are plenty of quality relievers to pick up his innings.
STILL PLENTY OF OFFENSE – EVEN WITHOUT THE GUITAR … I MEAN BAT. … OF CARLOS SANTANA
The Tribe will miss 1B Carlos Santana’s bat (free agency), but did add Yonder Alonso (.266-28-67 with the A’s and Mariners). Beyond that, they pretty much return the offense responsible for putting up the third-most runs in the AL last season (behind only the Yankees and Astros).
It looks like SS Francisco Lindor will lead off. He’s one of the most exciting young (23-years-old) players in baseball and put up a .273-33-89 line (with 15 steals) a year ago. More power will come from 3B Jose Ramirez (just 25, but in his fifth MLB season), who hit .318-29-83, with 17 steals – and could be a legitimate MVP candidate. Joining Ramirez and Alonso in the middle of the lineup is veteran DH/1B Edwin Encarnacion (.258-38-107).
2B Jason Kipnis can also contribute. He was .232-12-35 with six steals in 90 games last season (shoulder/hamstring issues). Healthy, he is capable of 20+ home runs and 15+ steals and he has looked good this spring (.346-6-12 in 52 at bats). He should take up some of the “Santana-Slack.” As of Opening Day, LF should be Tyler Naquin, with Michael Brantley starting on the DL. Naquin played in just 19 games with the Indian a year ago (back, knee and performance issues), but he did hit .298 at Triple A). Naquin hit .296-14-43 in 116 games in his rookie season (2016) and has looked good this spring. Brandley Zimmer (.241-8-39, with 18 steals in 101 games) should start in center, with Lonnie Chisenhall (.288-12-53 in 82 games) in RF. Roberto Perez (.207-8-38 in 73 games) and Yan Gomes (.232-14-56 in 105 games) will handle the catching. Plenty of offense – and a nice blend of power and speed.
ALL-IN-ALL
The Central Division once again belongs to the Indians – led by, arguably, the AL’S best pitching staff and a top-three offense.
PLAYER TO WATCH
2B Jason Kipnis, who suffered through an injury-dampened 2017, seems determined to reaffirm his position as a top middle infielder.
- Twins 89-73 (2017 … 85-77)
The Twins surprised a lot of people by winning 85 games last year – a 26-victory improvement over 2016. Then they surprised even more with an aggressive approach to the free-agent and trade market in the off season (Jake Odorizzi, Lance Lynn, Zach Duke, Addison Reed, Fernando Rodney, Logan Morrison). They may not be ready to unseat the Indians atop the Central, but they are ready to improve on last season and, again, win a Wild Card spot.
SHORING UP THE ROTATON
Despite the fact that staff “ace” Ervin Santana (16-8, 3.28) probably won’t join the rotation until late April or early May (finger surgery), the Twins’ rotation looks stronger than one year ago. It now includes: 23-year-old Jose Berrios (14-8, 3.89 last year, but with considerable upside still to be realized); newcomer (via trade) Jake Odorizzi (10-8, 4.14 for the Rays), who should benefit from the Twins’ defense; newcomer free-agent Lance Lynn (11-8, 3.43 for the Cardinals); and Kirk Gibson (12-10, 5.07 for the Twins, but 7-3, 3.76 after the All Star break). If the Twins need a fifth starter before Santana returns, they have some solid arms waiting in the wings (Adalberto Mejia and Stephen Gonsalves come to mind.)
The Twins also improved the bullpen, adding 41-year-old Fernando Rodney (4.23 with 39 saves for the Diamondbacks). If Rodney doesn’t work out, another newcomer – Addison Reed (.2.84 with 19 saves for the Mets and Red Sox) – has solid closer experience. Reed, who has 125 career saves, fanned 76 in 76 innings a year ago. And, there are more new faces in the pen: veteran Zach Duke (3.93 in 27 appearances for the Cardinals) and Rule 5 pickup Tyler Kinley (Marlins), who hits triple-digits on the radar gun. Other bullpen names could include: Trevor Hildenberger (3.21 in 37 games); Ryan Pressley (4.70 in 57 games); and youngster Gabriel Moya, who gave up just one run in Spring Training, while fanning 12 in 12 innings. When it comes to the pen, the Twins appear “good to go.”
THIRTY-EIGHT HOME RUNS – AT A BARGAIN PRICE
Photo by Keith Allison
The Twins bolstered their already productive lineup (one of just four AL teams to top 800 runs in 2017) by adding the productive bat of DH/1B Logan Morrison (pictured). The free agent, who signed a one-year deal for $6.5 million (plus incentives), hit .246, with 38 home runs and 85 RBI for the Rays last season and will slot right into the middle of the Twins’ lineup. Flanking Morrison will be 3B Miguel Sano (.264-28-77 in 114 games), who seems fully recovered from a 2017 leg injury) and LF Eddie Rosario (.290-27-78). The Twins also get plenty of power from the leadoff spot, manned by 2B Brian Dozier (.271-34-93), who has hit 76 home runs and driven in 192 over the past two seasons.
CF will be held by super-defender and Gold- and Platinum-Glover Byron Buxton – still coming into his own as an offensive force. Last season, Buxton went .253-16-51, with 29 steals – but he was .300-11-35 after the All Star break. He has the potential to deliver 20 home runs and 40 bases. The lineup is rounded out with 1B Joe Mauer (.305-7-71), a three-time batting champ; RF Max Kepler (.243-19-69 and still developing offensively); SS Eduardo Escobar (.254-21-73), who replaces the suspended Jorge Polanco; and C Jason Castro (.242-10-47).
ALL IN-ALL
The Twins have a solid – if not spectacular – rotation that should keep them in games; an improved bullpen; and a balanced lineup that should again be among the top scoring AL teams (and which still has plenty of upside among its young hitters.) They are ready to challenge the Indians in the Central – and should at least capture another Wild Card spot.
PLAYER TO WATCH
Byron Buxton has been officially pronounced the fastest player in major league baseball. He is worth watching for his Gold Glove defense and – if he continues to develop – could deliver some exciting offense (Say, .285-20-90, with 45 steals). He creates a lot of excitement every time he takes the field
- White Sox 74-88 (2017 … 66-96)
The White Sox, like most of the Central Division, are in a rebuilding mode. However, while most “predictors” are putting the Sox down for fifth place in the Division, BBRT expects a bit more from Chicago – not contention, but a chance to pull into third place … thanks to a couple of key additions in Joakim Soria and Wellington Castillo, as well as some up-and-coming youngsters.
IMPROVED PITCHING, ESPECIALLY IN THE PEN
While most will point to James Shields (5-7, 5.23) as leading the rotation, BBRT leans towards Lucas Giolito (3-3. 2.38 in 7 starts). Let’s look at the top two in this rotation. While Shields – a consistent double-digit winner from 2007-2015 – finished with just five wins and an ERA north of 5.00 in 2017, the veteran made some adjustments and went 3-2, 3.94 in five September starts, fanning 30 in 32 innings. The real key, however, may be Giolito, who went 3-3, 2.48 for the Sox – and has looked solid this spring (2.04 ERA and 17 whiffs in 17 2/3 innings). Others in the rotation include: 24-year-old Reynaldo Lopez (3-3, 4.72 in eight starts); 24-year-old Carson Fulmer (3-1, 3.86 in seven games/five starts); and veteran Miguel Gonzalez (8-13, 4.62 for the White Sox and Rangers). The rotation might get some help from Carlos Rodon, expected to miss the first month of the season (shoulder surgery).
Photo by Minda Haas Kuhlmann
The White Sox made a solid move in picking up Joakim Soria (pictured) to close (or serve as a key set up man). Soria has 204 career saves and, last season, went 3.70 in 59 games for the Royals. After Soria, the Sox have Juan Minaya, who saved nine games in ten opportunities at the end of 2017, and could step in if Soria falters. Nate Jones should also be a key member of the pen – while elbow problems held him to just 11 appearances in 2017, he put up a 2.29 ERA in 71 appearances in 2016 (80 strikeouts in 70 2/3 innings). He looked solid in spring. Among the other bullpen arms are: Luis Avilan (2.93 in 61 appearances for the Dodgers); Gregory Infante (3.13 in 52 games); and Danny Farquhar (4.20 in 52 appearances). Overall, the bullpen seems to offer some fairly positive options.
Catcher Wellington Castillo should bat somewhere in the middle of the Sox lineup, after a .282-20-53 season (96 games) for the Orioles. He’ll get help from 1B Jose Abreu (.305-33-102), who has driven in at least 100 runs in each of his four MLB seasons. The Sox are hoping Nicky Delmonico can provide some protection in the lineup, after the 25-year-old went .262-9-23 in his rookie season (43 games). Other key offensive contributors will be 2B Yoan Moncada (.231-8-22 in 54 games and one of MLB’s top prospects); RF Avasail Garcia.(330-18-80), one of the game’s rising stars; and SS Tim Anderson (.257-17-56), who hit .276 after the break. Rounding out the lineup: DH Matt Davidson (.220-26-68); 3B Yolmer Sanchez (.267-12-59), who also flashed Gold Glove defense; and CF Adam Engel, who has flashy defensive skills, but has not shown the ability to hit major legume pitching. It looks like Engel has earned an early season nod, with a strong spring (.383-4-10 in 47 at bats).
ALL-IN-ALL
The White Sox, like the Royals and Tigers behind them, need help on the mound. The Sox, however, have a young and talented line up that may mature enough over the course of the season to bring them into third place.
PLAYER TO WATCH
CF Adam Engel was a strikeout machine last season (117 K’s in 97 games – to go with a .166 average). He looked very good this spring – average and power. Let’s see if he can keep it up once the season opens.
- Royals 71-91 (2017 … 80-82)
The Royals lost 1B Eric Hosmer and CF Lorenzo Cain to free agency. How the players they acquired to fill those spots – Lucas Duda and Jon Jay – work out may very well determine how close to .500 they finish. And, a .500 finish looks optimistic.
ROTATION NEEDS A LITTLE BOUNCE
Danny Duffy (9-10, 3.81) will lead the rotation – but the Royals have to find a way to keep him healthy and get him to 30 starts. (Duffy had Tommy John surgery in 2012 and was on the Disabled List twice in 2017.) Also in the rotation are veterans Ian Kennedy (5-13, 5.38) and Jason Hammel (8-13, 5.29) – both of whom underperformed a year ago. The Royals need a bounce back from these two. Kennedy has a career 4.08 ERA, Hammel – 4.51. Jakob Junis (25-years-old) looked good in his first MLB exposure last season, going 9-3, 4.30 in 20 games/16 starts. In the absence of Nate Karns, recovering from thoracic outlet surgery, Eric Skoglund will likely join the rotation – or serve a long role in the bullpen – after a solid spring.
Kelvin Herrerra (4.25 with 26 saves) will close – fronted by a combination that could include of Blaine Boyer (4.34 in 32 appearances with the Red Sox); Brandon Maurer (6.52 in 68 games with the Padres and Royals); Justin Grimm (5.53 in 50 games with the Cubs); Wily Peralta (7.85 in 19 games with the Brewers); Brad Keller; and Brian Flynn. The Royals need a few of these bullpen resources to step up and (just as they need in the rotation) to bounce back.
MOOSE IS BACK
Photo by Keith Allison
The Royals re-signed 3B Mike Moustakas (pictured) and he will again be a primary power source after a career-best .272-38-85 season. Also hitting in the middle will be newcomer 1B Lucas Duda, who hit .217-30-64 with the Mets and Rays. The cleanup spot may actually go to C Salvador Perez, who hit 27 home runs, to go with a .268 average and 80 RBI.
Note: Since this writing, Salvador Perez has gone down (4-6 weeks) with a luggage-related injury – taking a key bat out of the Royals’ lineup. Drew Butera (.227-3-14 in 74 games) may be the primary catcher until Perez returns.
New LF Jon Jay (.296-2-34 for the Mets ) replaces Lorenzo Cain (who delivered more power and speed a year ago). Joining Jay in the OF will be returning Alex Gordon (CF), a Gold Glover who has regressed on offense (.208-9-45 in 2017) since signing a multi-year deal after the 2015 season. In RF, the Royals are hoping for a rebound from Jorge Soler, who hit just .144 in 35 games with the Royals last year (but .267 with 24 home runs in 74 games at Triple A). Soler showed promise while with the Cubs, and did hit six long balls in Spring Training this year. Paul Orlando should also get some OF time. He got in only 39 games last season (broken leg), but did hit.302 in 128 games in 2016 and .387 this spring.
Mike Moussakas hit a Royals’ club record 38 home runs in 2017. That’s right! The Royals have NEVER had a 40-home run season.
Whit Merrifield is set at second base – and a spot near the top of the order – after a .288-19-78 campaign (with 34 stolen bases) in 2017. He may be the spark that sets the Royals offense in motion. Filling out the batting order is likely to be SS Alcides Escorbar (.250-6-54) and DH candidates Cheslor Cuthbert (.231-2-18 in 58 games) and Jorge Bonifacio (.255-17-40 in 113 games). Both had solid springs and can take a turn in the OF.
ALL IN ALL
This team may have more of a chance to challenge 100 losses than to challenge for the Central Division crown. The offense could end up middle of the pack, but the pitching just doesn’t seem to be there.
PLAYER TO WATCH
Kelvin Herrerra was a top of the line setup man for both Greg Holland and Wade Davis when the Royals were on top of their game (in 2015, his ERA was 1.41 over 70 innings), but he struggled a bit in the closer role last season. It will be interesting to see how he delivers in the ninth inning this year – particularly since the Royals parted with the most likely challenger/backup closer in Joakim Soria (204 career saves) in a trade for prospects.
- Tigers 69-94 (2017 … 64-98)
The Tigers scored 735 runs last season and gave up 894 … and they simply didn’t do enough to close that gap.
LOOKING FOR SOME COMEBACK CANDIDATES
Michael Fulmer had the best season among expected Tiger starters last year – 10-12, 3.83. He’s the 2016 AL Rookie of the Year (11-7, 3.06) and a 2017 All Star. He’s pretty much the one starter Detroit can count on. Like the Royals, the Tigers are hoping for a rebound from many of the principals in their rotation, including: Jordan Zimmerman (9-13, 6.08, but with a 3.76 career ERA); newcomer Francisco Liriano (6-7, 5.66 for the Blue Jays and Astros); Matt Boyd (6-11, 5.27, but 6-5, 4.53 in 2016); and Daniel Norris (5-8, 5.31, but 12-12, 4.35 in 54 career appearances/45 starts). BBRT would say that Zimmerman and Liriano have the best chances for a rebound. Free-agent signee Mike Fiers (8-10, 5.22) will likely open the season on the Disabled List (back).
Francisco Liriano could teach the Tiger staff something about comebacks and rebounds. Liriano was the AL Comeback Player of the Year in 2010 and the NL Comeback Player of the Year in 2013. He needs to do it again, after signing with the Tigers in February, coming off a 6-7, 5.66 season).
There weren’t many bullpen bright spots, but one of those was closer Shane Greene, who stepped into the role after closer Justin Wilson was traded to the White Sox. Greene ended the season with a 2.66 ERA and 13 saves, fanning 73 in 67 2/3 innings. Helping fill out the pen: Alex Wilson (4.50 in 66 appearances); Daniel Stump (3.82 in 55 appearances); Joe Jimenez (12.32 in 24 games, but 1.38 in 27 minor league appearances): and Drew VerHagen (5.77 in 24 appearances).
SPEAKING OF COMEBACKS
Photo by Keith Allison
As much as the Tigers would like to see some comeback performances on the mound, they would love to see one in the batter’s box – from 11-time All Star, two-time MVP and 2012 Triple Crown Winner 1B Miguel Cabrera (pictured). Hampered by back and groin issues, Cabrera hit .249-16-60 in 130 games – just one year after a .316-38-108 campaign. The Tigers need the 35-year-old (in April) to bounce back big time. Others in the center of the lineup include a pair of potent veterans: RF Nick Costellanos (.272-26-101) and DH Victor Martinez (.255-10-47 in 107 games, but capable of a 25-30 homer season and coming off a strong Spring Training). Castellanos in RF is an interesting case. The former 3B was displaced by 24-year-old prospect Jeimer Candelario, who hit .330 in 27 games for the Tigers after coming over from the Cubs. Newcomer Leonys Martin looks set for CF and could leadoff – and the Tigers will be looking for him to use his speed. They are hoping they got the .247 hitter with 44 stolen bases (Mariners) of two years ago, and not last season’s .172 variety (Mariners and Cubs). Martin hit .316 and stole four bases this spring. So far, so good.
Looking deeper into the lineup, catching will be handled by James McCann, who adds some punch to the lineup (.253-13-49). Just 27, he should be part of the Tigers’ rebuilding. Mike Mahtook (.276-12-38) should hold down left field and bat somewhere near the top of the order. We’ll see Jose Iglesias (SS) and Dixon Machado (2B) up the middle. Iglesias was .255-6-54 last season, while Machado – a sparkling defender – was .259-1-11 in 73 games.
ALL IN ALL
With all but the Indians and Twins in the Central seeming to be in rebuilding mode, the Tigers have a chance to sneak into third place – provided two members of their starting rotation can rebound (most likely Jordan Zimmerman and Francisco Liriano).
PLAYER TO WATCH
Joe Jimenez could be a surprise in the Tigers’ pen. He got knocked around pretty good in last year’s MLB call up (12.32 ERA in 19 innings). The 23-year-old, however, has a 1.56 ERA over 167 1/3 minor league innings, with 56 saves and 241 strikeouts. This spring he fanned 15 batters in nine innings (3.00 ERA).
WEST
- Astros 102-60 (2017 … 101-61)
A team wins 101 games and you look for an improvement. Okay, just one game, but the Astros look that good. It’s hard to find a weakness in this squad. From 5’6” Jose Altuve to 6’5” Justin Verlander, this team is loaded with quality players who can be counted on to deliver.
VERLANDER FOR THE WIN
Justin Verlander came over from Detroit and gave the staff the leader they needed. He started and won five games in five starts during the stretch run and was the ALC MVP. He finished the season (Detroit and Houston) at 15-8, 3.36 with 219 strikeouts in 206 innings. He is the real deal – and a legitimate 2018 Cy Young candidate. The number-two spot in the rotation goes to 2015 Cy Young Award winner Dallas Keuchel (14-5, 2.90); followed by Lance McCullers (7-4. 4.25 in 22 starts); newcomer Gerrit Cole (12-12, 4.26 with the Pirates); and Charlie Morton (14-7, 3.62.) Okay, this is not quite the Indians’ rotation, but given the offensive firepower that the Astros can put up, it’s plenty to secure the division.
The Astros bullpen will miss set up man Luke Gregerson, but the pen was not the team’s strength in 2017. The Astros’ rotation put up a 4.03 ERA (third best in the AL), while the bullpen ERA was 4.27, the league’s ninth best.
Back to close will be Ken Giles, who saved 34 games and put up a 2.30 ERA in 62 2/3 innings (83 strikeouts). Among those getting the ball to him will be steady Chris Devenski (2.68 in 62 games and 100 whiffs in 80 2/3 innings) and Will Harris (2.98 in 46 games). The Astros have also added Joe Smith (3.33 in 59 games for the Blue Jays and Indians) and hard-throwing Hector Rondon (4.24 in 61 games for the Cubs).
RIGHT UP THE MIDDLE
Photo by roy.luck
When looking at the Astros’ lineup, let’s start right up the middle – of the field and in the lineup. Defending MVP (pictured) 2B Jose Altuve (.346-24-81, 32 stolen bases) – who has won three batting titles and led the league in hits four years in a row – makes this lineup go. Turningg the double play with Altuve and sharing the middle of the lineup is SS Carlos Correa (.315-24-84).
But wait there’s more – way more. In the OF, the Astros have leadoff hitter George Springer (.283-34-84 in CF); Josh Reddick (.314-13-82) is in RF; and, probably, some combination (at least to start the season) of Jake Marisnik (.243-16-35) and Derek Fisher (.212-5-17 in 53 games) in left. At 1B, versatile Marwin Gonzalez (.303-23-90) may get the early nod (due to Yuli Gurriel’s suspension). Once Gurriel is back, Gonzalez will likely take a corner OF spot – but he can play all over the diamond. At the other corner is 23-year-old 3B Alex Bregman (.284-19-77, with 17 steals in his first full MLB season). Behind the plate are veterans Brian McCann (.241-18-62) and Evan Gattis (.263-12-55), who will also see time at DH. Last year, the Astros led all of MLB in runs scored with 896. I’m betting they do it again.
ALL-IN-ALL
The best offense in baseball paired with a pitching staff in the top one-third means the Astros walk home with another division title and play deep into October.
PLAYER TO WATCH
Lots of choices here, but I’m going with Marwin Gonzalez – just to see where he is playing on any given day. Last year, Gonzalez went a solid .303-23-90 in 134 games – starting 38 games in LF, 33 at SS, 20 at 1B, 15 at 3B, and 14 at 2B. THAT is versatility. Fantasy pick, anyone?
- Mariners 82-80 (2017 … 78-84)
The Mariners, with just a little luck –and a lot of health – could challenge for a Wild Card spot. A revived King Felix could lead the way.
JUST ENOUGH PITCING FOR SECOND PLACE
Photo by Matt McGee
Like most of the teams chasing the Astros, Seattle needs pitching. And, one of the first things the Mariners need is for former “ace” Felix Hernandez (pictured) to come back from last year’s shoulder issues (6-5, 4.36 in 16 starts). A healthy Hernandez, even if not as effective as in his prime, would be a boost to Seattle’s chances to finish above .500. Hernandez has looked healthy and dead serious this spring. Those are good signs.
The number-two spot in the rotation goes to James Paxton (12-5, 2.98, 156 strikeouts in 136 innings). Paxton, in BBRT’s opinion, is be ready for a breakout season. Again, health is of concern. Paxton spent two stints on the Disabled List last season.
The rotation fills out with Mike Leake (10-13 3.92 in 2017, but 3-1, 2.53 in five starts for the Mariners after coming over from the Cardinals); Marco Gonzales (1-1, 6.08 for St. Louis and Seattle); and Erasmo Ramirez (5-6, 4.39 with the Rays and Mariners). Gonzalez had a particularly strong spring, putting up a 2.08 ERA in 26 innings (21 strikeouts).
In the pen, 24-year-old Edwin Diaz is back to close, after saving 34 games last year (3,27 ERA and 89 strikeouts in 66 innings). The Mariners added hard-throwing veteran Juan Nicasio (2.61 in 76 games) to bolster the pen and take the ball in key late-inning spots. Among the other arms out there are: Nick Vincent (3.20 in 69 games); Mark Rzepczynski (4.02vin 64 games); and James Pazos (3.86 in 59 games).
SOMETHING OLD – SOMETHING NEW … IN THE LINEUP
The Mariners, seventh in scoring in the AL last season, traded for a couple of interesting (and effective) bats. Right at the top of the lineup, you’ll find newcomer Dee Gordon (.308-2-33, with 201 hits, 114 runs scored and 60 steals for the Marlins last season). Gordon gives the Mariners a premier leadoff hitter and should spark an already solid offense. It will be interesting to see how Gordon handles the switch from 2B to CF. (He hit .309 in 19 Spring Training games). Another newcomer, Ryon Healy (.271-25-78 for Oakland) will play 1B and hit in the bottom third.
Now, for the old. We’ll see plenty of power in the middle of the lineup from veteran, 37-year-old, DH Nelson Cruz (.288-39-119); 35-year-old 2B Robinson Cano (.280-23-97); and 30-year-old 3B Kyle Seager (.249-27-88). The rest of the lineup includes: SS Jean Segura (number-two hole), who hit .300-11-45, with 22 steals; RF Mitch Haninger (.282-16-47 in 96 games – with plenty of upside); and catcher Mike Zunino, who had a breakout .251-25-64 season. Left field could be interesting, with time possibly split between Seattle icon 44-year-old Ichiro Suzuki, coming off a .255-3-20 season for Miami, and Guillermo Heredia (.249-6-24).
ALL IN ALL
The Mariners have plenty of offense and, if the pitching stays healthy, enough on the mound to hold off the Angels, A’s and Rangers for second place. The Astros, however, remain out of reach. A Wild Card also seems unlikely, but sneaking over .500 is a realistic expectation.
PLAYER TO WATCH
Dee Gordon deserves your attention – both to see how he responds to CF and also to watch how he can “spark” a lineup.
- Angels 81-81 (2017 …. 80-82)
Will Shohei Ohtani – a two-way superstar in Japan – deliver for the Angels? How that question is answered may have a lot to do with how close the Angels finish to the Astros (they are not likely to catch them) and a Wild Card spot (there is a chance).
PLENTY OF REASONS TO CROSS YOUR FINGERS
The Angels really need Garret Richards – who has fought a knee injury and arm ailments since a 15-victory, 200-inning 2016 season – to make a comeback. Richards has made just a dozen starts over the past two seasons, but did look healthy in Spring Training. Fingers crossed in LA.
Shohei Ohtani (with a 42-15, 2.52 record and 624 strikeouts in 543 innings in five Japanese seasons) will also be in the rotation. Ohtani was roughed up to two spring starts (nine runs in 2 2/3 innings), but observers say he showed improvement late in Spring Training and he’ll get the start in the Angels’ fourth game of the season. Again, fingers crossed in LA. Note: We may see Ohtani at the plate before we see him on the mound. More on that later.
Also taking the mound to start for the Halos will be: Tyler Skaggs (2-6, 4.55), who had Tommy John surgery in 2014 and also was limited (by health issues) to 16 starts last season; Matt Shoemaker (6-3, 4.52), a 16-game winner in 2014, who made just 14 starts in 2017 (forearm surgery); and J.C. Ramirez (11-10, 4.15 in 27 appearance/24 starts), who suffered an elbow injury late last season. The Angels are also hoping for good news on Andrew Heaney, who seems likely to start the season on the Disabled List (elbow) – but hopes to be ready in early April. The Angels clearly need Ohtani to come around and at least two-or-three of their potential rotation mainstays to stay healthy. Lot of finger crosssing here.
Eight different players saved games for the Angels in 2017. Still only three American League teams logged more saves than the Angels 43 and their bullpen ERA was the league’s fourth best.
Blake Parker (2.54, eight saves, 86 strikeouts in 67 1/3 innings) looks to open the season as the Angels’ closer. Given the team’s 2017 experience, expect him to be on a short leash. The Angels also have Cam Bedrosian (4.43 with 11 saves and 53 K’s in 44 2/3 innings) and newcomer Jim Johnson (22 saves for Atlanta last season, but a 5.56 ERA) should Parker falter. Among the other bullpen arms: Kenyan Middleton (3.86 in 64 games); Jose Alvarez (3.88 on 64 games); and Blake Wood (5.45 in 72 appearances). I would be surprised if the pen matches last year’s performance.
TROUT… FISHING FOR ANOTHER MVP
Photo by Keith Allison
The Angels offense starts with one of the games brightest stars, CF Mike Trout (pictured). A torn thumb ligament cost Trout playing time last year, but he still put up a .306-33-72 line, with 22 steals, in just 114 games. How good is Mike? Last season the two-time MVP finished fourth in the MVP balloting, the first time in his six full MLB season that he has finished lower than second.
Providing additional punch in the lineup DH/1B Albert Pujols (.241-23-101), LF Justin Upton (.273-35-109, with 14 steals for the Tigers and Angels); and RF Kole Calhoun (.244-19-71), The Angels added a leadoff hitter with speed and pop in Ian Kinsler (.236-22-52, with 90 runs scored and 14 steals with Detroit). At 3B, it’s another of those fingers-crossed situations. In December, the Angels signed free-agent Zack Cozart – an All Star shortstop with the Reds. They are moving Cozart and his healthy bat (.297-24-63) over to third base after he’s spent seven seasons as a major league shortstop. Filling out what looks to be a strong – and improved – lineup are top defender Andrelton Simmons (.278-14-69, with 19 steals) at shortstop and Martin Maldonado (.221-14-38) behind the plate. The DH slot could be interesting, with time there for Pujols; Luis Valbuena (.199-22-65), who can also play 1B; and even Ohtani, who hit .286, with 48 home runs in 403 games in Japan, and has voiced a desire to take on the role of designated hitter on occasion.
ALL-IN-ALL
The Angels’ offense looks sound and the defense is solid, but there seem to be too many health questions surrounding the rotation and too many questions regarding relief roles for the team to contend. And, after all, they are chasing the Astros.
PLAYER TO WATCH
Shohei Ohtani is often referred to as the “Japanese Babe Ruth” – that rare combination of pitcher and slugger. Scouts say he has wicked stuff – and he put up a 42-15, 2.52 record in five seasons in Japan. His best year on the mound was 2015, when – as a 20-year-old – he went 15-5, 2.24 and fanned 196 hitters in 160 2.3 inning.
As a hitter, Ohtani put up a .286-48-166 line in 403 games. His best season at the plate? A .332 average, with 22 home runs and 67 RBI in 2016. Now the 23-year-old is in the major leagues. He was treated pretty roughly this spring – a .125 batting average and a 27.00 earned run average – but he came north (well, west actually) with the Angels. It will be interesting to see how the Angels use him – and whether he lives up to some very high expectations
4. A’s 79-83 (2017 … 75-87)
The A’s are developing some nice young players, but they need more experience – and, perhaps, a mound “ace” – to move up in the standings.
THE DAY BELONGS TO THE YOUNG
The A’s are sending a host of young pitchers to the mound – led by Kendall Graveman and Sean Manaea. Manaea started 29 games in his second MLB season and went a respectable 12-10, 4.37. Graveman, who may have the most upside, got only 19 starts (shoulder), but was 6-4, 4.19). There’s plenty of competition for the remaining spots, but it looks like Daniel Mengden (3-2, 3.14 in seven starts); Andrew Triggs (5-6, 4.27 in 12 starts); and Daniel Gossett (4-11, 6.11 in 18 starts). But don’t be surprised if other developing starters get auditions over the course of the year.
That relatively inexperienced rotation probably means lots of work for the bullpen, and the A’s did work to strengthen the relief corps. Blake Treinen (3.93 with 16 saves on the season) put up a 2.13 ERA, with 13 saves in 16 opportunities after coming over in a traded with the Nationals. In the off-season, the A’s added veteran Yusmeiro Petit (2.76 with 101 whiffs in 91 1.3 innings for the Angels) and second-year man Emilio Pagan (3.22 in 34 games with the Mariners). These two will play key roles. Also in the pen will be Chris Hatcher (4.22 in 49 games for the Dodgers and A’s), Liam Hendriks (4.22 in 70 games) and Santiago Casilla (4.27 in 63 games).
GOING TO THE MATT(S)
The Athletics will be looking for offense from a pair of 24-year-old Matt(s): 1B Matt Olson (.259-24-45 in just 59 games) and 3B Matt Chapman (.234-14-40 in 84 games). The A’s would like to see these two hold down the corner spots for the long term.
Photo by Keith Allison
Khris Davis (pictured) will be back at DH (and cleanup). He provides consistent power (a .247 average, 85 home runs and 212 RBI over the past two seasons), but strikes out a lot (361 times over the past two campaigns). As long as he continues to bash 40 long balls and drive in 100 runs a season, the A’s will take the whiffs. The table setters should be LF Matt Joyce (.243-25-68) and SS Marcus Semien (.240-10-40 in 85 games). Veteran Jed Lowrie (.277-14-69) will provide a steady presence at 2B, as will newcomer C Jonathan Lucroy (.265-6-40 for Texas and Colorado). Lucroy is coming off a disappointing season, but has shown 15-20 homer power. Joining Joyce in the OF is Stephen Piscotty (LF), who went .235-9-39 for St.Louis last season, but was .273-22-85 in 2016. Finally – and here’s something I would not have expected to ever write – there may very well be Boog Powell in CF. No relation to the 1970 AL MVP Boog Powell, this young “Boog” (25-years-old) hit .282 in 52 games with the Mariners and A’s a year ago.
ALL IN ALL
The A’s do not have a staff ace, and while they improved their bullpen (particularly with the Petit signing), the pitching is too uncertain to place them any higher than fourth here. Similarly, they have some nice young position players developing at the MLB level (and in the system), but the offense (while in the middle of the pack) is not ready to challenge the top tier.
PLAYER TO WATCH
Maybe it’s a name thing, but I want to watch prospect Boog Powell in CF. The 25-year-old hit .321-3-10 for Oakland (39 games) after coming over from Seattle last year. – and has a .305 average over 419 minor league games
5. Rangers 78-84 (2017 … 78-84)
A lack of pitching, particularly starting pitching, seems to be the common denominator of all the teams chasing the Astro in the West – and the Rangers are no exception.
RANGERS NEED MOORE ON THE MOUND
Cole Hamels will be expected to lead the rotation. The veteran is coming off a disapointing 11-6, 4.20 seasons (24 starts). The Rangers would like a return to the 15-5, 3.32 pitcher of 2016. Texas is also looking for “more” from a couple of newcomers: Matt Moore (6-15, 5.52 for the Giants, but 13-12, 4.08 in 2017) and Mike Minor, who had a good year out of the Royals’ pen (2.55 ERA in 65 appearances). Minor will get a chance to start for the Rangers – and was 13-9, 3.21 as a starter (Braves) as recently as 2013. Minor is a bit of gamble, having missed the 2015 and 2016 seasons with shoulder issues – but he did look good in relief for the Royals last season and, if he doesn’t work out as a starter could be a plus in the bullpen.
Also in the rotation are Doug Fister (5-9, 4.88 with Boston, but a 12-game winner with the Astros in 2016) and Martin Perez (13-12, 4.82), expected to return in early April (recovering from a broken elbow). There is some potential in the rotation, but things have to go right. Hamels, Moore and Perez appear to be key.
The Rangers’ had the second-worst bullpen ERA in the American League last season (4.76 – only the Tigers were worse at a dismal 5.63). In addition, Rangers’ relievers converted only 58 percent of their save opportunities, tied with the A’s and Tigers for the lowest conversion rate in the league.
The Rangers’ bullpen may face challenges again in 2018. With the opener approaching, the Rangers were still looking for their closer. Among the leading candidates: Alex Claudio (2.50 with 11 saves a year ago); Matt Bush (3.78 with 10 saves); and Jeff Diekman (2.53 in 11 games). Also in the pen, we could see Keone Kela (2.79 in 39 games) and Jose Leclerc (3.94 in 47 games), It’s difficult to get a read on the Rangers’ pen when the roles are not exactly well-defined. Let’s just say, they need to find a way to improve over last season.
FOLLOWING IN IN SOME GOOD FOOTSTEPS
The lineup starts at the top with speedy leadoff man CF Delino DeShields, who hit .269-6-22, with 29 steals last season. The two-spot llkely goes to 1B Joey Gallo (.209-41-80). If Gallo (pictured) can cut down on his strikeouts – 196 last season – he could develop into a middle-of-the-lineup monster. In the middle of the infield, there are: 20-20 guy SS Elvis Andrus (.297-20-88, with 25 steals); 3B Adrian Beltre (.312-17-71 in 94 games); and RF Nomar Mazara (.253-20-101). The rest looks like DH Sin-Soo Choo (.261-22-78); C Robinson Chirinos (.255-17-38 in 88 games); 2B Rougned Odor .203-30-74); and LF Ryan Rua (.217-3-12 in 63 games),
ALL IN ALL
The Rangers will score runs (they were fifth in the AL last season), drive the ball out of the park (third in the AL in home runs), but also kill some rallies with strikeouts (Ranger batters whiffed 1,493 times last season, second only to the Rays). More plate discipline from key player would mean more wins – but not enough to overcome questions about the pitching. Too many pitchers need to bounce back – and there is too much bullpen uncertainty – to look for Texas to move up.
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Member: Society for American Baseball Research; The Baseball Reliquary; The Negro Leagues Baseball Museum.
