BBRT … 2018 National League Preview

The season is almost upon us and it’s time for some BBRT predictions. I know I’m a little late to the game this season. (Last year’s preview was on the site by early March.) That’s what happens when you take a March vacation – and don’t follow up on your intention to do some blogging on the way.  (Then again, I did get to ride plenty of roller coasters; explore some unique caverns; tour the San Antonio River Walk; see Fredericksburg, Texas’ historic “Sunday Houses;” ride a zip line; take in a Pat Benatar concert at Austin City Limits Live; visit a few funky blues bars; and enjoy plenty of good food and drink.)

So, let’s start with the National League – the “Senior Circuit” after all – with a look at BBRT’s predicted standing and award winners.  For those who want more, the post ends with a team-by-team evaluation.  Keep in mind, these are just my own opinoins and conjecture – not the result of any inside insight or info.

Note:  The American League will be coming soon.

BBRT NATIONAL LEAGUE PREDICTIONS (Playoff Teams in Bold).

EAST

Washington Nationals

Philadelphia Phillies

New York Mets

Atlanta Braves

Miami Marlins

CENTRAL

Chicago Cubs

Saint Louis Cardinals – Wild Card

Milwaukee Brewers

Pittsburgh Pirates

Cincinnati Reds

WEST

Los Angeles Dodgers

Arizona Diamondbacks – Wild Card

Colorado Rockies

San Francisco Giants

San Diego Padres

BBRT PREDICTED AWARD WINNERS

MVP

Bryce Harper, OF, Nationals … Just 25-years-old and already in his sixth season (and a four-time All Star), Harper is ready to lead the Nationals to another East Division crown.  When he was the NL MVP in 2015, he showed us what he is capable of: .330 average, 42 home runs, 99 RBI, 118 runs scored.  He’s primed for another season at that level.

Other Contenders:  Nolan Arenado, 3B, Rockies … An RBI machine (three straight seasons of at least 130 driven in), a guaranteed Gold Glover (five straight, every year he’s been in the big leagues) and a proven power source (120 home runs over the past three campaigns); Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Diamondbacks … Like Arenado, a lumber AND leather guy, went .297-36-120- last season, picked up his third Gold Glove and even stole 18 bases. He is the face of the D-backs franchise.

CY YOUNG

Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers … Okay easy pick here. He already has three CYA’s and last season (despite missing a month), went 18-4, took the ERA crown (2.31) and fanned 202 batters in just 175 innings. If he’s healthy, he’s the favorite.

Other Contenders: Max Scherzer, Nationals … Last year’s NL CYA winner, Scherzer (who also won an AL Cy Young Award in 2013) is the most likely challenger to Kershaw. Last season, Scherzer went 16-6, 2.51 with a league-leading 268 whiffs in 200 2/3 innings. Noah Syndergaard, Mets … My dark horse candidate, Syndegaard, in 2016 – at age 23 – put together a 14-9, 2.60 season, with 218 strikeouts in 183 2/3 innings. In 2017, “Thor” missed most of the season with a partial right lat tear (1-2, 2.97 in seven starts).  He’s looked fully recovered this spring (1.35 ERA and 23 K’s in 20 innings at this writing). If he stays healthy, he should be in the CYA mix.

ROOKIE OF THE YEAR

Ronald Acuna, OF, Braves … This kid – just 20-years-old – can flat out play. In 2017 (playing at A, AA and AAA), he hit a combined .325-21-82, with 44 steals. Then he raked at a .325 pace in the Arizona Fall League. This Spring Training?  More of the same – .432, with four homers and 11 RBI in 44 at bats. The Braves will start him in the minors, but most expect him to be called up early in the season.

Other Contenders:  Lewis Brinson, OF, Marlins … Brinson, acquired from the Brewers, ripped Triple A pitching for a .331-13-48 line (76 games) in 2017 – tossing in 11 steals. And, while he hit just .106 in a brief trial with the Brewers last season, he was hitting .328 in 58 Spring Training at bats as this was written. Given the Marlins’ situation, the 23-year-old should get plenty of playing time. Alex Reyes, RHP, Cardinals … Not due back until May (elbow surgery), Reyes is my long shot for Rookie of the Year. He’s got electric stuff (4-1, 1.57, with 52 strikeouts in 46 innings for the Cardinals in 2016 – and a 3.50 ERA and 449 K’s in 334 1/3 minor league innings). If he makes it back in May and contributes to the Cardinals’ fight for a post-season berth (in the bullpen or the rotation), he could garner support for ROY.

Now, if you are a glutton for punishment, here’s a team-by-tam look at the National League

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—–NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST—–

1. Washington Nationals … 99-63 (2017 … 97-65)

The Nationals topped the NL East by 20 games a year ago and pretty much stood pat. At this point, the only significant move has been to add 1B Matt Adams (.274-20-65 for the Cardinals and Braves) and the dropping of OF Jayson Werth (who will be in his age 39 season and, over the past three campaigns, has played in just 301 games, hitting .233 with 43 HR’s and 140 RBI).

The Nationals dominated the East a year ago – scoring the AL East’s most runs (819, third-best in the NL) and giving up the division’s fewest tallies (672, third-fewest in the NL).

STARTERS RULE

The team will again be led by its sterling rotation (no NL team got more innings out of their starters last season than the Nats) led by three-time Cy Young Award winner (pictured) Max Scherzer (16-6, 2.51 ERA last season) – followed up by a surging Stephen Strasburg (15-4, 2.52); Gio Gonzalez (15-9, 2.96); and Tanner Roark (13-11, 4.67). The fifth starter is likely to be A.J. Cole (3-5, 3.81 in eleven 2017 MLB appearances).

The Nationals bullpen finished 11^th in earned run average, but don’t let that fool you. For the first half of the 2017 season, the Nationals had the National League’s (and major league’s) worst bullpen ERA at 5.20. In the second half, the relief staff’s ERA was the third-best in the NL at 3.54. In July, the Nationals acquired Ryan Madson and Sean Doolittle from Oakland and Brandon Kintzler from Minnesota.  All three will be back (with Doolittle closing), so the late innings looked locked up for Washington.

HARPER’S BAZARR

The most interesting new face in the Nationals lineup may be LF (and expected leadoff) hitter0 Adam Eaton – whom the Nationals picked up in a 2016 off-season trade – and then lost to a knee injury for nearly all of 2017. In his last full season (White Sox) Eaton hit .284 (his career average) with 14 home runs and 14 stolen bases – he should add to a solid Washington offense – and he can go get ’em in the outfield. The middle of the lineup belongs to potential MVP candidate RF Bryce Harper (.319-29-87); 3B Anthony Rendon (.301-25-100); and 2B Daniel Murphy (.322-23-93) – although Murphy may not be ready for opening day (knee).  First baseman Ryan Zimmerman should grab a spot at 3-4-5 in the lineup, after going .303-36-108 a year ago. No matter how it shakes out, the three through six spots will deliver plenty of punch. CF Michael Taylor – whose emergence as an offensive force made Werth expendable – should generate excitement at the bottom of the lineup.  The National’s projected starting centerfielder hit .271, with 19 home runs and 17 steals in 118 games last season. Then there is Trea Turner at shortstop, who brings speed to the batting order in the number-two-hole (.284, with 11 home runs and 46 steals).

ALL-IN-ALL

There just isn’t anyone in the NL East ready to challenge the Nationals; they should again coast into firsts place.

 PLAYER TO WATCH

Bryce Harper is in his “walk” year.  It will be interesting to see how this young star (he is still only 25, despite his six major league seasons) responds to the pressure.  If he stays healthy, BBRT wouldn’t be surprised to see Harper finish north of .300-30-100 in all three categories.  But, keep in mind, since 2012, he’s average just 128 games a campaign.

2. Philadelphia Phillies 80-82 … (2017 … 66-96)

More than a dozen Phillies made their major league debuts last season – and indications are that the Phillies are moving in the right direction.  The Phillies were 29-58 before the All Star Break – and 37-38 after.   Then, this off season, the Phillies announced their intentions to move up in the standings by adding veterans like 1B Carlos Santana, starting pitcher Jake Arrieta and relievers Pat Neshek and Tommy Hunter. Things are definitely looking up in Philly.

On offense, the Phillies put up 4.77 runs per game after the All Star break – compared to 3.82 before.

YOUTH WILL BE SERVED

Righty Aaron Nola is only 24, but he already has 60 major league starts under his belt and looks like a true number-one.  Nola went 12-11, 3.54 in 2017 – and fanned 184 batters in 168 innings. The pressure was reduced a bit on Nola with the signing of veteran Jake Arrieta (14-10, 3.53 for the Cubs last season).  Jared Eickhoff and Vince Valasquez, who have both faced the injury bug, should take spots in the middle of the rotation (although Eickhoff may not be ready until May).  There are a number of additional lively arms vying for spots in a rotation that is starting to show promise. Among the more prominent candidates are Nick Pivetta (who fanned 144 batters in 133 MLB innings last season, but put up a 6.02 ERA); Ben Lively (4-7, 4.26 in 15 starts/7-5 3.15 at Triple A); and Zack Eflin.

The bullpen was bolstered in the offseason with the signing of free-agent (veteran) set-up men Pat Neshek and Tommy Hunter.  (Neshek is an interesting case. He started 2017 with the Phillies, was traded to the contending Rockies – for three prospects – in July, and resigned with Philadelphia for 2018.)  In 2017, Neshek went a combined 5-3, 1.59 in 71 appearances, while Hunter went 3-5, 2.61 in 61 appearances for the Rays (64 strikeouts in 58 2/3 innings). Those two should set up closer Hector Neris, who saved 26 games last year.  Among a handful of additional solid bullpen arms are Luis Garcia and Hoby Milner – who both put up sub-3.00 ERA’s.

NO, NOT THAT CARLOS SANTANA

The Phillies showed they were serious about advancing in the standings when they gave free-agent first baseman (pictured) Carlos Santana (.259-23-79 with the Indians) $60 million over three years. Santana – a veteran and disciplined hitter with a career .249 average, but a .365 on-base percentage – should not only add to the Phillies’ offense, but should also be a positive influence on the team’s young hitters.

Right at the center of that lineup is 24-year-old natural first baseman Rhys Hoskins (who seems destined to remain in left field given the Santana acquisition). Hoskins hit .284 with 29 home runs in 115 games at Triple A last year – earning an early August call up.  And, he just kept hitting – going .259-18-48 in just 50 games with the Phils. Joining Hoskins in the outfield and flanking him in the lineup will be 26-year-old CF Odubel Herrera (.281-14-56) and 24-year-old RF Nick Williams (.288-12-55 in 83 games in his rookie campaign).  The “old man” in the outfield mix is versatile 27-year-old Aaron Altherr, who can play all three OF positions, went .272-19-65 in 107 games last season and should see ample playing time.

Keeping with the “under-30” theme, the top of the order will feature 27-year-old 2B Cesar Hernandez – a switch hitter who knows how to get on base.  Last season, he hit .294 (on-base percentage .373), scored 85 runs and swiped 15 bases. Then there’s 25-year-old Maikel Franco at third base – who popped 24 home runs, but is still short on plate discipline. Shortstop is being handed to 23-year-old rookie prospect (23 MLB games last season) J.P. Crawford and my money is on hot prospect 24-year-old Jorge Alfaro to win the backstop spot. Alfaro hit .318 in 107 at bats with the Phillies last season, but needs to work on his defense.

ALL-IN-ALL

This is going to be a young and exciting Phillies’ squad.  They may just need another year of seasoning or another reliable starting pitcher to contend for a Wild Card spot.  Keep an eye on the Phils.  If they are in contention in July, you may see them move for some pitching help.

PLAYER TO WATCH

BBRT will be watching to see if top prospect 2B Scott Kingery (second base) moves up to the Phillies and into the lineup. The 23-year-old raked at a .392 pace, with four home runs and four steals this spring. Last season, Kingery hit .304 with 26 home runs and 29 steals at Double A and Triple A.  It will be hard to keep him in the minors for long, and may give the Phillies some trading options as they look to add starting pitching. The Phillies are expected to give Kingery some work at other positions in order to create more playing opportunities for the rising talent.

3. New York Mets … 73-89… (2017 …70-92)

What the Mets need to improve on last year’s record is a health – in the rotation, the bullpen and lineup.  BBRT is projecting New York for third, based on the strength of the pitching staff.  If the rotation falters, the Braves could sneak by. 

“THOR” COULD BE THE DIFFERENCE.

On the mound, it all starts with Jacob deGrom, whose 31 starts and 201 1/3 innings (15-10, 3.53 ERA) led the staff. No other Met started more than 22 games or pitched more than 119 innings.  The Mets are also counting on Noah “Thor” Syndergaard (pictured) and his triple-digit heat; but Syndergaard missed most of last season with a torn lat muscle (1-2, 2.97 in seven starts). In a healthy 2016, the southpaw flamethrower went 14-9, 2.60.  The Mets need him to get back there and he’s looked good in Spring Training. Among the favorites to win rotation spots are Steve Matz, Matt Harvey and Seth Lugo.  The trio is has shown talent in the past, but last season made a combined total of 51 starts and put up ERA’s of 6.08, 6.70 and 4.71.  Ouch! All three have shown better stuff.  If two of them can stay healthy and revert to past form, they could be double-digit winners.

The bullpen also has its health issues, as closer Jeurys Familia – who saved 51 games in 2016 – missed considerable time last season (due to suspension and injury). He did save six games in seven opportunities – and the Mets are hoping to have him back for the ninth inning on a regular basis.  The Mets will also be looking for good things from A.J. Ramos, who saved 20 games last season (Marlins and Mets) and newcomer Anthony Swarzak, who put up a 2.33 in 70 appearances for the Brewers and White Sox.

NO MORE MISTER WRIGHT

The Mets offense used to run through veteran 3B David Wright, but (due to back issues and rotator cuff surgery) that is now a primarily a sweet memory. Between 2005 and 2010, David Wright averaged 156 games per season.  Since 2015, he’s played a total of 75 games (none in 2017). Wright likely will start the season on the Disabled List.

The Mets brought in a veteran presence for the hot corner and middle of the lineup in free-agent Todd Frazier (.213-27-76 for the White Sox and Yankees). Most of the offensive force will come from the outfield, led by LF Yeonis Cespedes – again, health allowing.  Cespedes hit .280-31-86 for the Mets in 2016.  Last season, he hit .292, but hamstring problems limited him to 81 games (17 home runs and 42 RBI).  Joining him in the garden are likely to be Jay Bruce (.254-36-101 for the Mets and Indians) and speedy defender Juan Legares in center.  Here again, health issues are shaping the picture.  Bruce appears to be holding down RF until the return of Michael Conforto (shoulder surgery), who showed solid offensive potential last season (.279-27-68 in 109 games). Over at 1B, prospect Dominic Smith, who hit .303 over his past three minor league seasons, hit only .198 in 49 games with the Mets (although he did pop nine home runs.) The Mets picked up veteran Adrian Gonzalez as an insurance policy at the one-bag (and he looks to be the starter on Opening Day) – and Wilmer Flores (.271-18-52 in 110 games last season) could also fill in there.  At 2B, Asdrubal Cabrera has shown some pop (.280 average, 37 home runs over the past two seasons); while SS Amed Rosario (only 22) still has a lot to prove.  Catcher Travis d’Arnaud delivered 16 home runs in 112 games last season.

ALL-IN-ALL

There is potential to improve, but there are just too many health concerns – on the mound and in the lineup. Still with good health and a little luck, the Mets pitching could make them contenders for a Wild Card spot.

PLAYER TO WATCH

Noah Syndergaard has “staff ace” stuff.  If he can stay healthy, he is capable of putting up 15+ wins. The Mets ability to even compete for a Wild Card spot depends on Syndergaard’s 100-mph fastball.

                4.   Atlanta Braves 72-90 … (2017 …72-90)

Okay, the Braves have been “rebuilding” for a few years now – and BBRT thinks they may still be a year or two of “seasoning” away from contending for the post season.

TRADING FOR VETERAN MOUND PRESENCE

On the mound, the Braves (in the Matt Kemp trade) added a couple of veteran starters: Brandon McCarthy (6-4, 3.98, 16 starts) and Scott Kazmir (10-6, 4.56) to push and mentor Atlanta’s promising young arms.  (Note: Kazmir was released late in Spring Training.)  The staff will again be led by Julio Teheran (11-13, 4.49 last season, but with a 3.59 ERA in 165 MLB appearances).  He should return to a sub 4.00 ERA. Mike Foltynewicz (10-13, 4.79), Sean Newcomb (4-9, 4.32) and  newcomers McCarthy and Anibel Sanchez (3-7, 6.41 for the Tigers) should round out the rotation to start the season, but prospect Luiz Gohara (who has fanned 375 batters in 328 1/3 minor league innings may be ready to take a spot in May (recovering from an ankle injury). Given this rotation, it would not be surprising to see some in-season changes.

With closer Jim Johnson gone, the ninth inning goes to Arodys Vizcaino (24 saves over the past two seasons). After that, look for the Braves to try to match up as best they can with: Jose Ramirez (3.19 ERA in 69 appearances); A.J. Minter (3.00 in 16 appearances); Dan Winkler (2.51 in 16 appearances); Pete Moylan (3.49 in 79 appearances for the Royals); and Sam Freeman (2.55 in 58 appearances).  If the roles can be defined, the bullpen may stabilize, but for now, it seems to be a bit of a question mark.

DO THE FREDDIE

First baseman Freddie Freeman (pictured) put up a .307-28-71 season in 2017 – despite missing more than a month with a broken wrist.  Healthy, he can consistently put up .300-30-100 numbers (or better). The other sure thing on the offensive side is rock solid leadoff hitter/CF and Gold Glover Ender Inciarte (.304-11-57, with 22 steals);

After that, it’s really all about the future. In the infield, youngster Ozzie Albies (.286-6-28, with 8 steals in 57 games); SS Dansby Swanson (.232-6-51 in 144 games); and 3B Johan Carmargo (.299-4-27 in 82 games) are being counted on (although Carmago may start the season on the Disable List with back issues). In the outfield, Lane Adams (.275-5-20 in 85 games), veteran Mike Markakis (.275-8-76 in 160 games) and Preston Tucker (who came over from Houston) can be expected to hold down the corners until top prospect Ronald Acuna (a .310 average in three minor league seasons) is ready – and that appears to be sooner rather than later. Tyler Flowers and Kurt Suzuki will continue to man the backstop spot.  There is potential in this lineup, but also (almost certainly) some growing pains along the way for young players.

ALL-IN-ALL

The Braves need a lot of youngsters to step up if they are going to move up.  They are going in the right direction, but it’s not quite time.

 PLAYER TO WATCH

As I put this together, Braves’ 20-year-old OF prospect Ronald Acuna Jr. is hitting .432, with four home runs, 11 RBI and four stesls in Spring Training – and is slated to start the season at Triple A.  If the Braves don’t bring him up before April 13, they save an extra year of contract control.  Look for Acuna to make a splash in Atlanta by May.

5. Miami Marlins 66-96 …. (2017 … 77-85)

The Marlins are in “rebuild mode” – and it doesn’t look pretty. Gone is the entire outfield of Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna and Christian Yelich. Also missing is 2B Dee Gordon.  The Marlins got a host of prospects and an All Star 2B (Starlin Castro) in return – and signed well-traveled free-agent Of Cameron Maybin – but it looks like a long season in Miami.

PITCHING FREE-FOR-ALL

Not sure who will lead the rotation, with expected Opening Day starter Dan Straily (10-9, 4.26 in 33 starts) beginning the season on the Disabled List.  The top choice appears to be Jose Urena (14-7, 3.82, 28 starts). Behind Urena is Odrisamer Despaigne (try to spell that real fast), who went 2-3, 4.01 last season. After that it looks like some combination drawn from Adam Conley, Dillon Peters, Sandy Alcantara, Jacob Turner and Caleb Smith will hold down the for until veterans Straily and Wei-Yin Chen are ready to take the mound.

Veteran Brad Ziegler will be back to close – after a 2017 season when he saved 10 games in 16 opportunities and recorded a 4.79 ERA.  Ziegler was pitching through a rib injury last season and the Marlins are hoping for a comeback season. Going into the 2017 season, Ziegler had a career (nine seasons) 2.44 ERA.

 THE REPLACEMENTS

Stanton-Ozuna-and Yelich are gone.  Who is manning the outfield in 2018? Let’s start with the return to the Marlins of free-agent Cameron Maybin. Maybin was with the Marlins from 2008-2010 – and since that time he has been with the Padres, Braves, Tigers, Angels, Astros and now back to the Marlins.  He is tentatively slated for the leadoff spot – and, last season, he hit .228-10-35.  On the plus side, he did steal 33 bases in 114 games. Joining Maybin will be 23-year-old prospect CF Lewis Brinson, who came over from Milwaukee and hit.331 at Triple A last season; and LF Derek Dietrich, who hit .249-13-53 a year ago. This group is not going to replace the Stanton-Ozuna-Yelich stat line of .292-114-337. Last season, Maybin, Dieterich and Brinson went .257-38-139 – and that’s if you include Brinson’s minor league numbers.

On a more positive note, there is a pair of solid bats in the middle of the line-up. 2B Starlin Castro (pictured) was .300-16-63 with the Yankees and 1B Justin Bour was .289-25-83 for Miami.  J.T. Realmuto is solid behind the plate (but fighting back issues), while Miguel Rojas (who hit .290 in 90 games last year) is likely to be at shortstop. The Marlins will start the season without 3B Martin Prado (who played only 37 games in an injury-hampered 2017 season, and is still rehabbing a knee). Prado is a career .291 hitter, who posted a .305 average, with eight home runs and 75 RBI for the Fish in 2016. Starting the campaign at the hot corner expect 24-year-old Brian Anderson, who has shown good power in the minors (52 home runs in 446 games) and had a solid spring.

ALL-IN-ALL

A long season for Marlins’ fans; who should see a lot of new faces as the campaign “wears on.”

PLAYER TO WATCH

I’d keep an eye on the likes of Dan Straily and Brad Ziegler.  If they do well, watch for some trade activity at deadline time.

 

——NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL—–

 

1. Chicago Cubs (93-69) … (2017 … 92-70)

The Cubs lost some good players over the off season – Jake Arrieta, Wade Davis and Hector Rondon right at the top of the list.  But it doesn’t appear they’ll miss a beat, having added the likes of Yu Darvish, Brandon Morrow, Steve Cishek and Tyler Chatwood to the fold.

IT’S ONLY YU

The Cubs rotation could be better than a year ago, thanks to the acquisitions of Yu Darvish (pictured) and Tyler Chatwood.  The staff will be led by holdover Jon Lester (13-8, 4.33 and a 19-gme winner in 2016). Two and three will be change-up master Kyle Hendricks (7-5, 3.03 in 24 starts; and 16-8, 2.13 in 2016) and free-agent signee Darvish (10-12, 3.86 with the Rangers and Dodgers). The final two rotation spots should feature Jose Quintana and Tyler Chatwood – two more quality arms.  And, should any of these falter, southpaw Mike Montgomery (7-8, 3.38) is ready to step in.  This is a potent rotation

Out in the pen, newcomer Brandon Morrow will step in as closer, replacing Wade Davis (who saved 32 games in 33 opportunities).  Morrow has the stuff (near triple-digit heat and a wicked slider), now we will see if he has the mentality. Morrow has 18 saves in 11 MLB seasons.   The Cubs have plenty more power in the pen in the likes of Pedro Strop and Carl Edwards, Jr. – who fanned a combined 159 batters in 126 2/3 innings.  And there is more behind this duo, including Steve Cishek and Justin Wilson. The bullpen looks ready to defense the Central title.

 CAN’T CATCH(er) UP WITH THIS

When your catcher can bat cleanup and put up a .276-21-74 season – at age 24 – you know there’s something special going on. Lots of youth and lots of power in the Cubs’ lineup.  Spotting into the 3-4-5 holes are catcher Wilson Contreras; 1B Anthony Rizzo (.273-32-109 and an MVP candidate); and LF Kyle Schwarber (who hit only .211, but poked 30 home runs in 129 games). The Cubs can count on more power from 3B Kris Bryant (.295-29-73) – one of the best young power hitters in the game.

Setting the table (in leadoff) for these sluggers will be CF Albert Almora Jr., who hit .298 in his first full MLB season. Sharing those duties will be Ian Happ (.253-24-68 – also in his first MLB season). Rounding out the lineup are SS Addison Russell, RF (defensive wiz) Jayson Heyward; and 2B Javier Baez.   What may be scary for the rest of the division is that Rizzo – at just 28-years-old – is the oldest member of this lineup and, of course, its veteran leader,

ALL IN ALL

The Cubs are well-positioned to once again lead the NL Central.  And, with so many young stars, they should continue to get better with experience.

PLAYER TO WATCH

BBRT is anxious to see what Tyler Chatwood can do now that he has escaped Coors Field. In 2017, Chatwood was 3-8, 6.01 at Coors and 5-7, 3.49 on the road.

2. Saint Louis Cardinals 85-77 … (2017 83-79)

In December, the Cardinals traded four prospects to get a number-four hitter – and they got a good one in former Marlins’ outfielder (LF) Marcell Ozuna.  Ozuna’s bat (.312-37-124) may be just what the Cardinals need to get past the Brewers and maybe even challenge the Cubs.  His presence in the middle of that lineup should make the hitters around him all the better (more on that later).

COUNTING ON A COMEBACK

The Cardinals’ rotation will look little different this season, with Mike Leake gone via trade and Lance Lynn gone via free agency.  At the top of the rotation is 26-year-old righty Carlos Martinez – 12-11, 3.64 last year, but who could easily have won 16 games.  (In 2015-2016, Martinez went 30-16, 3.02.) Martinez fanned 217 batters in 205 innings. The number two and three spots will go to Michael Wacha (12-9, 4.13) and Adam Wainwright (12-5, 5.11) – although Wainwright suffered a hamstring pull late in Spring Training. The Cardinals need a comeback from the veteran Wainright, who has a career 3.29 ERA and won 92 games between 2009 and 2015. St. Louis fans can relish the fact, until mansring pull, “Waino”  looked good this spring.  Luke Weaver (7-2, 3.88, 10 starts) and Miles Mikolas will also be in the rotation; with rookie Jack Flaherty filling in until Wainwright is ready.  Of course, all of this could change when top prospect Alex Reyes returns from elbow surgery in May. Reyes may need some bullpen work to get stretched out, but he could be a valuable addition.

In the pen, newcomer Luke Gregerson (on the Disabled List – hamstring) is set to replace Seung-hwan Oh at closer. Gregerson has had his ups and downs in the closer’s role in the past – but did save 31 games in 36 opportunities as recently as 2015 (Astros). In Gregerson’s absence, it may closer-by-committee, although Bud Norris did save 19 games for the Angels last season. (Greg Holland sighting, anyone?) Others in the pen include: Tyler Lyons (2.83 with 68 strikeouts in 54 innings); Matt Bowman (3.99, 46 K’s in 58 2/3IP): newcomer Dominic Leone (2.56 with 81 whiffs in 7- 1/3 IP for Toronto); and John Brebbia (2.44 with 51K’s in 51 2.3 IP). If Gregerson is back soon, the pen should be fine. (There is always the prospect of using Alex Reyes in the pen – he misses a lot of bats – when he returns in May.) Again, Greg Holland sighting, anyone.

 PLENTY OF PROVEN BATS

There are plenty of proven bats in the lineup. We’ve already talked about Ozuna.  He will be flanked by 1B Matt Carpenter (.241-23-109), who has topped 20 home runs in each of the past three seasons) and 3B Jedd Gyorko (.272-20-67 in 125 games last season). Setting the table will be veteran RF Dexter Fowler (.264-18-64 in 118 games) and CF Tommy Pham (pictured), who had a breakout season in 2017 (.306-23-73, with 25 steals in 128 games). Other key members of the lineup include: 2B Kolten Wong (.285-4-42); SS Paul DeJong (.285-25-65 as a rookie); and steady veteran and All Star backstop Yadier Molina (.273-18-82). 

ALL-IN-ALL

The Cardinals have a well- balanced squad that, if healthy, should be in the hunt for a Wild Card spot. The rotation is sound and there are professional hitters across the lineup.  Their level of success may depend on how Gregerson recovers – and responds to the closers role.

PLAYER TO WATCH

Alex Reyes, just 23-years-old, is a top mound prospect. In 2016, he was 4-1, 1.57 with 52 strikeouts in 46 innings (12 appearances, five starts) after being called up as the pennant races heated up in August.  He should be back in May and could bolster the rotation or the pen,

3. Brewers 85-77 … (2017 … 86-76)

The Brewers mean business! The Brew Crew surprised a lot of people by finishing second, ten games over .500, last season.  Then they surprised even more people by going out and getting Christian Yelich, Lorenzo Cain and Jhoulys Chacin in the off season.  Okay, they’re not ready to knock the Cubs off their perch, but they are ready to battle the Cardinals for second place in the Central.

CHASE IN FOR “THE CHASE”

Zach Davies was Milwaukee’s “Ace” last season, turning his best campaign ever at 17-9, 3.90 – and he’s back. Right there with him is Chase Anderson 12-4, 2.74 (in a season interrupted by an oblique strain). Then there’s Jimmy Nelson, who went 12-6, 3.49 in 29 starts before being sidelined by September shoulder surgery (which will cost him a good portion of the 2018 campaign). The Brewers did respond to Nelson’s loss, signing veteran Jhoulys Chacin, who went 13-10, 3.89 for the Padres in 2017. He should bridge the gap. The four and five spots appear to belong to Brent Suter (3-2, 3,42, 14 starts) and Junior Guerra (1-4, 5.12 in 14 starts). If any of these falters, Brandon Woodruff (2-3, 4.81 in eight starts) is in the wings).  From this vantage point, it appears the Brewers need one or two of the young pitchers to step up, if they are going to keep pace with the Cardinals.

Corey Knebel and his 39 saves (1.78 ERA, 126 whiffs in 76 innings) is back to lock down the ninth inning. Other key bullpen components: Josh Hader (2.08 ERA in 35 appearances); Jacob Barnes (4.00 ERA in 73 games, 80 strikeouts in 72 innings) and Matt Albers (1.62, with 63 K’s in 61 innings for the Nationals).

SOMETHING NEW AT THE TOP OF THE ORDER

It looks like the Brewers will trot out two of their new acquisitions right at the top of the lineup, with LF Christian Yelich (.282-18-81, 16 stolen bases with Miami) and CF Lorenzo Cain (.300-15-49, 26 steals with Kansas City) likely to hit 1-2.

In 2017, the Brewers led the NL in stolen bases with 128 and tied for the lead in home runs with 224.  

The middle of the lineup belongs to 3B Travis Shaw (.273-31-101, with 10 steals); some combination of Eric Thames (31 home runs) and Ryan Braun (17 home runs in 104 games) at 1B; and 25-year-old RF Domingo Santana (a breakout .278-30-80).  The middle of the infield and the bottom of the lineup go to 23-year-old SS Orlando Arcia (who surprised in his first full season, going  .278, with 15 home runs and 14 steals – along with plus defense); with 2B looking like a battle between  Jonathan Villar (.241, with 11 home runs and 23 steals) and Eric Sogard (.273-3-18). All should get plenty of playing time as both Sogard and Villar can spot in at second, third and short.  Behind the plate duties should be led by Manny Pina (.279-9-43).

ALL-IN-ALL

If the pitching can deliver, the Brewers could hold off the Cardinals. The Brew Crew has a nice young lineup with power and speed – as well as just enough veteran presence to ease the pressure on the youngsters.  We might even see the Brew Crew make a move for pitching somewhere down the line. (They do appear to have an OF surplus.)

PLAYER TO WATCH

BBRT will be keeping an eye on Chase Anderson, who went 12-4, with a 2.74 ERA, for the surprising Brewers last season – despite missing seven weeks of with a left oblique strain (an injury he suffered not while pitching, but while swinging the bat).  Last season, was the thirty-year-old’s fourth in the major leagues.  It was also his first with an ERA under 4.00 – which most analysts say reflects an improved curveball and the addition of about four miles per hour of giddy-up to his fastball. If the 30-year-old righty can repeat – or even come close – the Brewers could have a new staff ace.

4. Pirates 75-87 (2017 … 76-86)

Gone are staff “Ace” Gerrit Cole and offensive leader Andrew  McCutchen – which leaves the Pirates with? A fourth-place finish.

TAILLON TO LEAD THE ROTATION

The Pirates would like Jameson Taillon to lead the rotation (now that Gerrit Cole is gone). Taillon has shown potential (13-11, 3.98 in 43 starts for the Pirates over the past two seasons – with 210 K’s in 237 2/3 innings). Ivan Nova (11-14, 4.14 in 31 starts) will continue to provide a veteran presence at the front end of the rotation. The Pirates are also looking to the young arms of 25-year-old Joe Musgrove (acquired in the Cole trade), who was 7-8, 4.77 for the Astros last season – and 25-year-old Chad Kuhl (8-11, 4.35 in 31 starts). Notably, Taillon, Musgrove and Kuhl are all in just their third MLB seasons.  Another 25-year-old (in just his second MLB season) – Trevor Williams – will round out the rotation. Williams was 7-9, 4.07 for the Pirates last season. Williams could surprise. He put up a 3.10 ERA, over 424 1/3 minor league campaigns.

The bullpen is led by closer Felipe Rivero, who took over from Tony Watson in June – and flourished. Rivero saved 21 games in 23 opportunities, turned in a 1.67 ERA and fanned 88 batters in 75 1.3 innings. Michael Feliz (also acquired in the Cole trade); George Kontos; Troy Glasnow; Kyle Crick and last year’s International League Pitcher of the Year Steve Brault are among the pitchers who may fill out the pen.

 

THIS “BELL” TOLLS FOR THEE

The face of the Pirates’ 2017 lineup plays first base and bats cleanup. Josh Bell (pictured) finished third in the NL Rookie of the Year balloting after a .255-26-90 line (159 games) in 2017.  He must lead the way in 2018. The club should benefit from a full season of CF Starling Marte, who hit .275-7-31, with 21 stolen bases in just 77 games last season (PED-related suspension). Marte is a career .288 hitter (six seasons), who has hit as many as 19 home runs and stolen as many as 47 bases in a campaign). Also in the heart of the lineup will be RF Gregory Polanco (.251-11-35 in 108 games) – a considerable talent who is still looking for consistency at the MLB level. Second baseman Josh Harrison is a steady bat at the top of the order (.281 career average) and will bat ahead of number-two hitter, newcomer LF Corey Dickerson – a proven hitter who put up a .282-27-62 line in 2017 (Tampa Bay). Rounding out the lineup will be C Francis Cervelli, SS Jody Mercer and another new face in 3B Colin Moran (see player to watch below).

The Pirates finished 13^th in the NL in runs scored in 2017 – and they didn’t add much firepower in the off season.

ALL-IN-ALL

The Pirates don’t have the horses to make a run at the playoff this season, but if the young arms they are developing start to deliver (and the offense picks up the pace a bit) they could finish near .500.

PLAYER TO WATCH

Keep an eye on 3B Colin Moran (acquired in the Gerrit Cole trade). Last season, the 25-year-old hit .301, with 18 home runs and 65 RBI in 82 minor league games (79 at Triple A) – before going 4-for-11 with a triple and a home run in a late-season call up (Astros). The Pirates would like him to take hold of the third base position.

5. Cincinnati Reds 67-95 (2017… 72-90)

Could it really be all about pitching?  Ask the Reds, who used 16 starting pitchers last season. Those starters put up the NL’s worst starting pitching ERA at 5.55 and no starter delivered more than seven wins. Overall, the Reds gave up an NL-leading 248 home runs and posted an NL-worst 5.17 ERA.  Now to be sure, health was a major issue – no Reds’ hurler started more than 21 games and only two (Tim Adelman and Scott Feldman) recorded at least 20 starts. There is, indeed, work to do in Cincinnati.

In 2017 the Reds scored 761 runs – seventh-best in the NL … but they gave up an NL-worst 869.

 A SOMEWHAT UNFORUNATE NAME FOR A PITCHER

Anticipated staff leader, veteran Homer Bailey – who had elbow surgery in February 2017 – didn’t make his first start lasy season until June 24 and went 6-9, 6.43 in 18 starts. (Bailey last notched double-digit wins and at least 25 starts in 2013).   The fact is, last season, the Reds’ Rotation was beset with injury issues.  But, on the bright side, that gave some of the youngsters a chance to gain some experience – and there is some potential there. Here’s a list of potential rotation regulars for 2018.

Anthony DeSclafani (27-years-old) went 9-5, 3.28 in 20 2016 starts – then missed the 2017 season with an elbow injury. DeSclafani, now dealing with a strained left oblique and is expected to being the season on the Disabled list.

Luis Castillo (25-years-old), who made his MLB debut last June, could be a bright light for the Reds after going 3-7, 3.12 in 15 starts and fanning 98 batters in 89 1/3 innings.

Twenty-four-year-old Sal Romano went 5-8, 4.45 in 16 starts, fanning 73 in 87 innings.

Tyler Mahle (23-years-old) went 1-2, 2.70 in four starts after an August call up.  (He had gone 10-7, 2.06 at Double A and Triple A.)

Brandon Finnegan (24-years-old) went 1-1, 4.15 in just four starts (shoulder injury).  In 2016, he went 10-11, 3.98 in 31 starts (172 innings) for the Reds.

The bullpen will be led by closer Raisel Iglesias and, if the starters and set up men can get him a lead, he’ll protect it.  Last season, Iglesias saved 28 games in 30 opportunities, put up a 2.49 ERA and fanned 92 batters in 76 innings.  After Iglesias, things thin out a bit in the pen. Wendy Peralta was a bright spot, putting up a 3.76 ERA in 69 appearances as a rookie. Others in the pen include Mike Lorenzen (currently inactive due to a muscle strain); Kevin Shackelford (4.70 in 26 appearances); and newcomers Jared Hughes (3.02 in 67 appearances with the Brewers) and David Hernandez (3.11 in 64 appearances with the Angels and Diamondbacks).

THE REDS WILL SCORE

When your offense starts with (pictured) 1B Joey Votto (.320-36-100, with 134 walks and only 83 strikeouts), you can’t complain. The Reds, in fact, will have three players in their lineup who hit thirty or more round trippers and another two who topped 25.   Joining Votto in the middle of the lineup will once again be 2B Scooter Gennett (.295-27-97) and LF Adam Duvall (.249-31-99).  And, there is more power from RF Scott Schleber (.233-30-67) and 3B Eugenio Suarez. Right at the top of the order is CF Billy Hamilton, who stole 59 bases a year ago – but absolutely needs to improve on his .299 on base percentage.  Zack Cozart (.297-24-63) who left via free agency will be replaced at short by Jose Peraza (.259-5-37, with 23 steals) and Tucker Barnhart (.270-7-44) returns at catcher.

ALL-IN-ALL

The Reds have a solid offense, but – unless the young pitchers continue to develop – the Reds will need a lot of runs to keep the Cincy on the right side of the W-L ledger.

 —-NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST—-

1. Dodgers 95-69 (2017 … 104-58)

The “names” gone from the Dodgers look significant: Yu Darvish; Curtis Granderson; Scott Kazmir; Adrian Gonzalez. But the fact is, the team that delivered 104 wins last season basically returns “all its letterman.”

IT ALL STARTS ON THE BUMP

The Dodgers’ rotation (even without rent-a-pitcher Yu Darvish) is solid – starting with (pictured) Clayton Kershaw, one of the best pitchers in MLB (history). The three-time Cy Young Award winner went 18-4, 2.31 with 202 strikeouts – despite missing the entire month of August with back issues. He is money in the bank, In LA, it’s Kershaw “and the rest of the staff.”  The “rest of” includes plenty of quality arms: 27-year-old Alex Wood (16-3, 2.72 with 151 whiffs in 152 1/3 innings); 29-year-old Kent Maeda (13-6, 4.22  with 140 K’s in 134 1/3 innings – and a 16-game winner as a rookie in 2016); 38-year-old veteran Rich Hill (12-8, 3.32 with 166 strikeouts in 135 2/3 IP); and 30-year-old Hyun-Jin Ryu (5-9, 3.77 in 24 starts).  In the NL, only the Nationals (and possibly the Diamondbacks) can put a similar quintet on the starting mound.

Last season, Dodger starters put up an MLB-best 3.39 ERA … 

and NL-best 3.5-to-1.0 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

The Dodgers’ bullpen begins with the NL’s top closer, Kenley Jansen (41 saves in 42 opportunities and a 1.32 ERA, as well as 109 strikeouts in 68 1/3 innings pitched). Getting the ball to Jansen will be the solid arms of veteran Josh Fields (2.84 ERA in 57 appearances); Tony Cingrani (4.22 in 47 games); newcomer Scott Alexander (2.48 in 58 games); and Pedro Baez (2.95 in 66 games).

Kenley Jansen struck out 51 batters before giving up his first walk last season (an MLB record).

BELLINGER AND SEAGER KEY THE OFFENSE

The Dodgers will miss 3B Justin Turner  (.322-21-71), who was slated for the number-three spot in the order. (He’s out with a broken wrist.) Still there is plenty of punch (and plenty of youth – and room to grow) in this lineup. Filling in the three-four-five holes are likely to be: 22-year-old 1B Cody Bellinger (who, last season, set a new NL rookie home run record with 39 long balls – .267 average, 97 RBI); RF Yasiel Puig (27-years-old), who went .263-28-74); and returning prodigal son LF Matt Kemp (.276-19-64 in 115 games for the Braves). The 33-year-old Kemp has had a solid spring and looks ready to contribute to LA’s offense.  Another young player (23-years-old) who will slot in the top half of the order is SS Corey Seager (.295-22-77 in 2017 and .308-26-72 in his 2016 rookie campaign).  Leading off will be CF Chris Taylor (.288-21-72, with 17 steals) – a capable table setter.  The rest of the likely lineup:  2B Enrique Hernandez (.215-11-37); 3B Logan Forsythe (.224-6-36); C Austin Barnes (.289-8-38).

ALL-IN-ALL

The Dodgers pretty much return the team that won 104 games a year ago (minus Justin Turner, but with – perhaps – a full year of Clayton Kershaw). It might be tough to again win 100+ games, but 95 victories will earn them another division crown.

PLAYER TO WATCH

Veteran Logan Forsythe is likely to hold down third base until Justin Turner (broken wrist) returns. Last season, hampered by injuries, Forsythe hit just .224-6-36 in 119 games.  However, in 2015-16 (with Tampa Bay), he averaged .273-19-60) per campaign.  That is the production LA is looking for.

2. Arizona Diamondbacks 88-74 (2017 … 93-69)

In the NL, only the Dodgers boasted a better team ERA than the D-backs (3.38 to 3.66), so this race may come down to mound work – and it should be close. The D-backs improved by 24 games (over 2016) last season and, while that improvement may not carry over, there is enough here to earn the D-backs a Wild Card spot and, if things break right, even unseat the Dodgers at the top of the division.

THE NAMES MAY NOT BE AS BIG – BUT THE ARMS ARE AS STRONG

The names in the D-backs rotation may not be, collectively, as well recognized as the Dodgers’ five starters – but, overall, the staff looks just as good.  It starts with 2009 Cy Young Award winner (pictured) Zack Greinke, who went 17-7, 3.20 last season, with 215 strikeouts in 202 1/3 innings. Then there is 26-year-old Robbie Ray, who really elevated his game last season – 15-5, 2.89 with 218 strikeouts in just 162 innings (just over 12 K’s per nine – that’s missing bats).  The remainder of the rotation should be Taijuan Walker (9-9, 3.48); Pat Corbin (14-13, 4.03); and Zack Godley (8-9, 3.37).  It will, again, be one of the best in the NL.

Among the losses for the Diamondbacks was closer Fernando Rodney (who saved 39 games for the Snakes last season) – and we may see some continued mix-and-match in that role.  Key among the relievers are: returnee Archie Bradley (25-years-old), who went 3-3, 1.73 (but had difficulty in save situations); and newcomers Brad Boxberger (4-4, 3.38 in 30 games with Tampa Bay) and Yoshihisa Hirano (who had 29 saves in Japan a year ago). My money is on Boxberger, who saved 47 games for Tampa Bay in 2015.  Bradley and Hirano would then slide into set up roles, with the bullpen rounded out with Andrew Chafin (3.51 ERA in 71 games) and Randall Delgado (3.59 in 26 games).  The D-backs do need to sort out bullpen roles, but there are some quality arms from which to choose.

PANNING FOR GOLD(schmidt) IN ARIZONA

In 2017, Arizona got a big boost from mid-season acquisition J.D. Martinez, who hit .302-29-65 in 62 games for Arizona and a totaled 45 home runs and 104 RBI for the season (57 games with the Tigers). Martinez signed with the Red Sox and, unfortunately, Steven Souza Jr. (.239-30-78, with 16 steals for Tampa Bay) – who was set to replace Martinez in the Garden – will start the season on the Disabled List. Replacing Martinez (well, at least filing that third OF spot until Souza returns) now falls to another newcomer, Jarrod Dyson (.251-5-30, with 28 steals in 111 games for the Mariners).  Martinez will be missed, but there is still plenty of offense in Arizona.

The Diamondbacks tied an MLB record in 2017 – having ten players reach double-digits in home runs.

The face and force of the offense is MVP candidate Paul Goldschmidt – who, literally, does it all. Goldschmidt had a typical “Goldy” season in 2017 – .297-36-120, with 18 steals and a Gold Glove. Goldschmidt gets protection in the lineup from 3B Jake Lamb (.248-30-105). Table setters for these two will be a pair of veteran, professional hitters: CF/Leadoff hitter A.J. Pollock (.266-14-49, with 20 steals) and LF David Peralta (.293-14-57, with eight stolen bases). The rest of the lineup will include: Newcomer C Alex Avila, who hit .264-14-40 for the Tigers and Cubs last year; 2B Ketel Marte (.260-5-18 in 73 games); and SS Nick Ahmed (.251-6-21 in 53 games.) Also in the infield and outfield mix is versatile Chris Owings (.268-12-51, with 12 steals in 97 games).

ALL-IN-ALL

The D-backs match up pretty well on the mound with the Dodgers, but a bit of a shallow lineup (in comparison to the Dodgers) is likely to keep them chasing LA.

3. Rockies 83-79  (2017 … 87-75)

The Rockies may benefit from last year’s misfortune, when key members of the rotation (Jon Gray, Tyler Anderson and Chad Bettis) all spent time on the Disabled list, and rookie hurlers made more than 90 starts for the Rocks.

A MORE EXPERIENCED ROTATION

Jon Gray (10-4, 3.67 in 20 starts) will lead the rotation. He is fully recovered from a left foot stress fracture and continues to rack up more than a strikeout per inning. Tyler Anderson had a solid 2017 campaign (6-6, 4.81) and 23-year-old German Marquez went 11-7, 4.39 and fanned 147 hitters in 162 innings. There are also Kyle Freeland (11-11, 4.10); Chad Bettis (2-4, 5.05 in a cancer-abbreviated 2017 season … but 14-8, 4.79 in 2016). Also in the mix is 23-year-old Antonio Senzatela (10-5, 4.68 as a rookie).

Greg Holland saved 41 games for the Rockies last year, but he is gone (still unsigned as I write this) – replaced by Wade Davis (2.30 ERA and 32 saves in 33 opportunities for the Cubs).  The Rockies’ pen should not miss a beat in the ninth. Getting the ball to Davis, we can expect (among others): Bryan Shaw (3.52 in 79 games); Jake McGee (3.61 in 62 games); and Mike Dunn (4.47 in 68 games).

Overall, the pitching staff is not a match for the Dodgers or Giants, but it should be improved from a year ago, thanks to the return of Gray, Bettis and Anderson and the additional experience acquired by youngsters like Marquez and Senzatela.

 AS YOU MIGHT EXPECT … OFFENSE IS ROCKY MOUNTAIN HIGH

Nobody scored more runs in the NL than the Rockies last season (824 to the Cubs 822) and plenty of offense is back for 2018.   Now, I am a bit biased (being a long-time third baseman – amateur), but for me it all starts with 3B Nolan Arenado (pictured), a Gold Glover who went .309-37-130 last season and now had three consecutive seasons of 130 or more RBI. Providing support in the middle of the lineup are RF Carlos Gonzalez (.262-14-57) and plus-defender SS Trevor Story (.239-24-82, but still developing as a hitter.) At the top of the order is NL batting champ CF Charlie Blackmon (.331-37-104, 14 steals), who set a new record for RBI batting leadoff last season. (Although there has been some of moving him to the middle of the order.) At 2B, there’s another top of the order guy, Gold Glover and 2016 NL batting champ DJ LeMahieu (.310-8-64). In left, we will see Ian Desmond (.274-7-40 in 95 games), who is looking for a return to 20-homer form.  There is also Gerardo Parra (.309-10-71), recovering from a hand injury, who could move into a corner OF spot when he is ready. At that time, Desmond or Gonzalez likely would head to the bench or a platoon.  Finally, newcomer Chris Ianetta (.254-17-43) in 89 games for Arizona) should handle most of the catching duties – and reach the 20+ homer level playing half his games at Coors.

ALL-IN-ALL

Given potential questions about the starting rotation, there just may not be enough here to bring the Rockies a second straight Wild Card spot; but that offense will create plenty of excitement.  If Marquez, Anderson and Freeland continue to develop, however, the Rockies could be in the chase.

4. Giants 79-83 (2017 … 64-98)

A year ago, the Giants’ season went south in April – when staff “Ace” Madison Bumgarner  (pictured) separated his shoulder in a dirt bike accident.  This year, the negative turn may have come late in Spring Training, as Bumgarner suffered a broken finger on his pitching hand (line drive) that may keep him off the mound for up to two months. This came just a few days after Giants’ number-two starter Jeff Samardzija (who ate up 207 2/3 innings last season) found out he could miss up to a month with a pectoral strain.

Thus are the best laid plans of mice and men rent asunder. The Giants, through trade and free-agency, had worked to come back from 2017’s disastrous 98-loss season.  New additions to bolster the offense included: 3B Evan Longoria, RF Andrew McCutchen and CF Austin Jackson. On the pitching side, the Giants added starter Derek Holland and reliever Tony Watson. Now, those changes may not be enough to offset the loss of MadBum and Samardzija,

WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE?

Who leads the staff now?  Without some last minute moves, it looks like veteran John Cueto (8-8, 4.52 a year ago and 122-83, 3.33 career) may have to step into that role. Ty Blach (8-12, 4.78) will also be counted on, as will Chris Stratton, who went 4-4, 3.68 in 13 games for the Giants last year. Going deeper into the rotation, we are probably looking at Holland (7-14, 6.20 for the White Sox) and rookie Tyler Beede (6-7, 4.79 at Triple A).

The bullpen, which may see plenty of work, is led by Mark Melancon, who saved 11 games in 16 opportunities for the Giants last year, but saved 98 games in 2015-16 (Pirates/Nationals). Melancon had surgery late in the 2017 season and hopes to return to form. Others playing key roles include: Sam Dyson, Hunter Strickland and Tony Watson.  The pen also could benefit from the anticipated May return of Will Smith (Tommy John surgery).

THERE IS SOME OFFENSE

The acquisition of Evan Longoria (.261-20-86 and a Gold Glove) boosts the Giants on offense and defense.  The team is confident Longoria can improve on all those numbers (he was .273-36-98 in 2016) and provide a steady veteran presence. (Longoria has played at least 156 games in each of the past five seasons.) Longoria is likely to bat cleanup, while another newcomer, RF Andrew McCutchen, will be leading off.  “Cutch” was .279-28-88, with 11 steals for the Pirates last year – and, as with Longoria, the Giants are hoping a change of scenery spices up those numbers.  (He’s a .291 career hitter.) Like Longoria, you can expect McCutchen in the lineup every day. He’s played at least 153 games in seven of the past eight seasons.

Not a single Giant hit 20 home runs in 2017. Newcomers Evan Longoria and Andrew McCutchen were brought in to address that power shortage.

The face of the franchise is C Buster Posey (.320-12-67) who will continue to be in the middle of the lineup, as will 1B Brandon Belt (.241-18-51 in 104 games).  Other contributors will be 2B Joe Panik (.288-10-53); SS Brandon Crawford (.253-14-77); and LF Hunter Pence (.260-13-67).  In CF, I expect to see Austin Jackson (.318-7-35 for the Indians), but he is being challenged by prospect Steven Duggar. The 23-year-old made it from Rookie ball all the way to Triple A in 2017.  Notably, Longoria, Crawford and Panik all have Gold Gloves on their resumes.

ALL-IN-ALL

The Giants should improve on offense (they scored the second fewest runs in the NL last season) and the defense should be sound. However, there just is not enough to contend – particularly given the losses at the top of the pitching rotation.  It looks like another long year in San Francisco.

PLAYER TO WATCH

It’ll be interesting to see if the Giants’ belief that a change of scenery will result in improved seasons for Evan Longoria and Andrew McCutchen.

5. PADRES  77-85 (2017 … 73-89)

The Padres are rebuilding (while mixing in some veteran presence) and – given the strength of the NL West – fans should be content to enjoy watching prospects develop.  San Diego is not ready to contend, but they are moving in the right direction.

A LEARNING CURVE

A young pitching staff probably cannot expect much support – the Padres scored an MLB-low 604 runs a year ago.  Veteran Clayton Richard (8-15, 4.79) will lead the staff (by example) and, hopefully, the youngsters will pick up on his work ethic and mound savvy. The brightest of the new mound bulbs is 25-year-old Dinelson Lamet – 7-8, 4.57 in 21 rookie-season starts, with 139 whiffs in 114 1/3 innings. However, as BBRT pens this, Lamet is dealing with an elbow injury and his status for the early season is uncertain. Other likely members of the rotation include: 24-year-old Luis Perdomo (8-11, 4.67); 26-year-old prospect Bryan Mitchell (acquired from the Yankees); and Tyson Ross (3-3, 7.71 with Texas … but with 3.91 ERA in eight MLB seasons).  It wouldn’t be surprising, however, to see prospects such as Cal Quantrill, Jacob Nix, Joey Lucchesi and Eric Lauer getting a shot sometime during the season.

The bullpen will be topped by closer Brad Hand who saved 21 games, put up a 2.16 ERA and fanned 104 batters in 79 1/3 innings. After that, the relief staff includes: Kirby Yates (3.97 in 62 appearances); Craig Stammen (3.14 in 60 appearances); Phil Maton (4.19 in 46 games); and Buddy Baumann (2.55 in 23 games).

PATIENCE IS A VIRTUE

The middle of the lineup belongs to (pictured) 1B Eric Hosmer (.318-25-94 with Kansas City) – bringing a steady bat, a Gold Glove and a veteran presence (and mentorship); LF Joe Pirela (.288-10-40 in 83 games); and former Padre 3B Chase Headley (.273-12-61 with the Yankees).The key to the Padres offense, however, may be Wil Myers – moving to the OF to accommodate Hosmer.  Myers hit .243-30-74, with 20 steals – after a .259-28-94, 28-steal season in 2016.  Myers is expected to hit in the two- or three-hole. Leading off will be another exciting youngster – 23-year-old Manuel Margot (.263-13-39, 17 steals in his rookie campaign). Also in the OF mix is Hunter Renfroe, who hit .231, but with 26 long balls, as a rookie.  Filling out the lineup are likely to be 2B Carlo Asuaje (.270-4-21 in 89 games as a rookie); SS Freddie Galvis (.255-12-61 with the Phillies); and C Austin Hedges (.214-18-55.)   Padre fans are also hoping to see promising young SS Fernando Tatis, Jr. in San Diego soon.  I would not be surprised to see some new, young faces in the Padres’ lineup by mid-season.

ALL IN ALL

The Padres are rebuilding and mixing in a bit of a veteran presence with emerging young talent. Expect continued change and some new faces along the way, as the team builds toward contention.  They should improve in the W-L column this year, just not enough to climb out of the basement.

PLAYER TO WATCH

If Dinelson Lamet comes back from elbow issues, he’s worth watching. In 298 minor league innings (four seasons), he put up a 2.99 ERA and fanned 336 batters. Then in 21 MLB starts with the Padres last year, he went 7-8, 4.57 and whiffed 139 batters in 114 1/3 innings.

Coming soon:  A look at the American League.

 

I tweet baseball @DavidBBRT

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Member: Society for American Baseball Research; The Baseball Reliquary; The Negro Leagues Baseball Museum.