Archives for March 2016

With MLB Opening Day this coming Sunday, it seems appropriate to take a look at a few Spring Training surprises.  So, here’s a handful of developments BBRT found interesting.  (All 2016 statistics through March 27.)  As you read through these, keep in mind:

1) Spring Training provides a pretty small sample size;

2) The competition can be uneven as teams “get a look” at players who may not be in their immediate major league plans;

3) Players show up at Spring Training at different levels of preparedness; and

4) Players – particularly pitchers – often sacrifice immediate performance to work on specific skills like mastering a new pitch or hitting to the opposite field.)

With all this in mind, here are a few developments BBRT found at least somewhat surprising.

(My) Twins’ starting pitching – a pleasant surprise.

The pitching should be better at Target Field this season – at least if Spring Training is any indication.

Right off the top in terms of surprises is the performance of the Minnesota Twins’ pitching staff – particularly the starting rotation.  (Being from Minnesota, the status of the Twins’ mound corps is of considerable interest to me.) Looking at the starters now locked in (slots 1-4), it’s been a surprisingly strong spring.  Opening Day starter Erwin Santana’s spring ERA is 1.13 (down from an also strong 1.89 in 2015 Spring Training); Kyle Gibson sits at 1.53 (down from 3.51 last spring); Tommy Milone’s ERA is 2.40 (down from 3.60); and Phil Hughes is at 2.76 this spring (down from 5.28). Overall, the Twins’ ERA is 3.51 through March 27, down from 4.00 for the 2015 exhibition season.

It’s surprisingly good to be young and at third base.

Nolan Arenado – a hor spring at the hot corner.
Photo: Jennifer Zambrano

Things are indeed hot at the hot corner this spring.  That in itself is not unexpected, but just how strong the play of a couple of young third sackers has been is a little surprising. For example, looking at players with at least 40 Spring Training at bats, the top batting average goes to 24-year-old Rockies’ 3B Nolan Arenado at .553 (26-for-47, with three home runs and 12 RBI). Arenado, in just his third MLB season, is clearly establishing his dominance. Last season, he led the NL in HR’s (42) and RBI (130), while hitting .287, winning his third straight Gold Glove and making his first All Star team.

The second-highest average among players with at least 40 at bats belongs to the D-backs’ 26-year-old 2B/SS Jean Segura at .529 (27-for-51). Segura also has two home runs, ten RBI, 14 runs scored and five stolen bases in 15 games.  Segura, acquired by the Rockies from the Brewers in an off-season trade, has a .266 average in four MLB seasons.  However, he was an All Star in 2013, when he hit .294, with 12 home runs and 44 stolen bases in 146 games. The Rockies would love to see a return to that form. Note: Segura’s likely double play partner Nick Ahmed is also having a strong spring (.418 in 17 games through March 27).

Leadership in the other two Triple Crown categories (HR’s and RBI) also goes to a young third baseman – only this one is just beginning to show his major-league potential. The Phillies’ 23-year-old Maikel Franco has hit .298 thus far this spring, with an MLB-leading eight home runs and 20 RBI.  As a rookie last season, Franco got into 80 games, hitting .280 with 14 HR’s and 50 RBI.  Looks like he’s on his way to a solid career.

Currently tied for the second-most Spring Training HR’s at six are Seattle 2B Robinson Cano (.370-6-15) and Giants’ RF Hunter Pence (.484-6-11).

A surprising Story.

The Rockies’ 23-year-old SS Trevor Story has opened a few eyes this spring – going .381-5-12 in 16 games through March 27.  The rookie may very well have captured the Colorado starting spot at short after going .279-20-80 (with 22 steals) at Double A and Triple A last season.  Rookie of the Year candidate?

Did you catch this surprise?

D-backs’ catcher Wellington Castillo has been a monster this spring.  In 11 games, he’s put up a .433 average, with three home runs, an MLB third-best 16 RBI and a spring-leading nine doubles. The 28-year-old is in his sixth MLB season (.251 career average), coming off a breakout year in 2015 (.255-17-50 in just 80 games).  He looks poised to be an offensive force in 2016.

Surprising power from the White Sox.

No team has hit more home runs this spring than the White Sox – with 42 in 26 games. What makes this surprising is: 1) In the 2015 season, the White Sox finished 26^th in HR’s with 136 in 162 games; 2) No White Sox player has hit more than four home runs this spring. (However, the following players have four each: 3B Matt Davidson; RF Avisail Garcia; SS Jimmy Rollins; 3B Tyler Saladino.)

More surprises?  Here’s another Juan.

The Pirates are known for their work in helping pitchers reach their full potential.  This year’s surprise project may be 6’4”, 250-pound right-hander Juan Nicosia.  The 29-year-old has a career (five seasons) record of 22-25, with a 4.88 ERA.  (However, he did spend four of those five seasons in Colorado – not exactly a pitcher’s paradise). Last season, working primarily as a reliever (53 games) with the Dodgers, he went 1-3, 3.86. Now with the Pirates, he’s been “lights out” this spring. In five appearances (four starts) he’s pitched 15 innings, fanned 24 (tied for MLB second-best) and has yet to give up a run.

Other pitchers with at least 10 innings pitched and an ERA of zero this spring: Matt Barnes, Red Sox (10 1/3 IP); Dana Eveland, Rays (10 1/3 IP); and Dallas Keuchel, Astros (10 IP).

Diamondbacks swinging hot bats.

Through March 27, the D-backs are leading all of MLB with a .321 team batting average, 338 hits, 206 runs scored, 76 doubles and 19 triples. They also are fifth in home runs (37). Take a look at some of these Spring Training averages: Jean Segura (.529 in 15 games); Yasmany Tomas (.452 in 10 games); Wellington Castillo (.433 in 11 games); Nick Ahmed (.418 in 17 games); Jack Reinheimer (.400 in 17 games); Jake Lamb (.391 in 19 games); Brandon Drury (.379 in 22 games) – and I could go on and on.  The D-backs have 15 players who have played in at least 10 games and are hitting .315 or higher.

A surprising comeback.

D-backs’ lefty Patrick Corbin missed all of the 2014 season and half of 2015 following Tommy John surgery – but managed to finish 2015 at 6-5, 3.60 in 16 starts.  He looks to be all the way back this spring – with a 1.71 ERA and 24 strikeouts (with only three walks) in 21 innings. The 26-year-old Corbin is in only his fourth MLB season and appears to be back in the form that earned him 14 wins and an All Star berth in 2013.

Note: The Spring Training strikeout leader through March 27 is the Angels’ Hector Santiago – with a 3.52 ERA and 26 whiffs in 23 innings.

A good surprise, and a crowded outfield.

The Nationals’ 25-year-old outfielder Michael Taylor is having a solid spring – .455-4-12 in 17 games – after hitting .229 with 14 home runs, 63 RBI and 16 steals in 138 games during the 2015 regular season.  Still, there is plenty of competition for at bats in the Nats’ outfield – with Jayson Werth, newcomer Ben Revere and MVP Bryce Harper.  A surprising Spring Training performance, however, may help ensure Taylor gets his share of plate appearances.

Of course, not all surprises are good ones. For example, who would have expected that (through March 27), the Giants’ potential starting rotation’s spring ERA’s would look like this: Jeff Samardzija – 7.20/25 IP; Jake Peavy – 7.43/23 IP; Madison Bumgarner – 11.12/11 1/3 IP; Johnny Cueto – 9.58/10 1/3 IP; Matt Cain – 12.15/5 2/3 IP).

Or consider this sampling of players who have played in 15 or more games and are hitting under .200: Orioles’ 1B Chris Davis; Cubs’ OF Jayson Heyward; Tigers’ OF Anthony Gose; Astros’ 1B Jon Singleton; Royals’ SS Alcides Escobar; Marlins’ OF Christian Yelich; Mets’ C Travis d’Arnaud;  Yankees’ 1B Mark Teixeira; Cardinals’ 3B Matt Carpenter.

Here also, is a partial list of pitchers with ten or more innings and ERA’s over 7.00: Miguel Gonzalez, Orioles; Danny Salazar, Indians; Matt Shoemaker, Angels; Scott Kazmir, Dodgers; Wily Peralta, Brewers; Masahiro Tanaka, Yankees’; Colby Lewis, Rangers.

Of course, it is Spring Training – and things are likely to change a lot once the regular season gets underway.  In fact, we can expect most of the players to play up to – or down to – their expected performance. No one will hit .500; no one will finish a full (qualifying season with a o.oo ERA; the list of under-.200 hitters is not likely to include any of the players listed above; and the list of 7.00+ ERA pitchers also is unlikely to include those listed here.  So, I wouldn’t take these numbers – good or bad – very seriously. But until the soon-to-be-here season opener, it does give us something(s) to think about.

Thirty things BBRT would like to see this season – here.

Fan of trivia? -Quizzes here and here. 

BBRT National League prediction here – American League Predictions here. 

I tweet baseball @DavidBBRT

Member:  Society for American Baseball Research (SABR); The Baseball Reliquary; Baseball Bloggers Alliance.

During Spring Training my mind seems to wander toward baseball. Actually, my mind wanders toward our national pastime year-round, but seems to wander more often and farther afoot once Spring Training games start.

Josh Hamilton, last MLB player to draw a bases-loaded INTENTIONAL walk. Photo: Keith Allison

It usually begins innocently enough – predictions on the coming season’s standings and awards (for the AL, click here – for the NL, click here), prospects I intend to keep an eye on (click here), and potential comeback players (click here).  But, as the season draws closer, the topics become more esoteric. For example, just recently I began contemplating one of the more anti-climactic occurrences on the baseball diamond – the bases-loaded walk.  Always a fan of a play on words, I was particularly interested in “walk-off walks” – those bases-loaded free passes that marked the final plate appearance of a game. Pulled into that rabbit hole, I went on to look at such topics as most bases-loaded walks in a game and inning (by a player and team), World Series bases-loaded free passes, intentional bases-loaded walks and games in which all of a team’s runs came via the sacks-full free pass.

WALK-OFF WALKS

Turns out the walk-off walk is not a rare thing.  In fact, you can expect a handful of such occurrences each season. According to statistics from Baseball-Reference.com:

• Each of the past five seasons has seen four walk-off walks – and if you go back ten seasons, the average number of walk-off walks per season is 5.3.
• Walk-off walks (as you would expect) are most likely in extra-inning contests (12 of the last 20 walk-off walks have come in extra innings).

I also noted that walk-off walks can be set up in a variety of ways.  Just looking to 2015, I found a game (August 16), when Texas started the bottom of the ninth in a 3-3 tie with the Mariners.  Texas’ number-nine hitter LF Ryan Strausborger led off with a bunt single; leadoff hitter CF Delino DeShields beat out a bunt down the third base line for a hit; RF Shin-Soo Choo was hit by a pitch (loading the bases); DH Prince Fielder went down on strikes; and, then, 3B Adrian Beltre walked to force in the winning run. The game-ending tally scored without a ball leaving the infield.  By contrast, on July 30, The Cardinals went into the bottom of the ninth trailing the Rockies by three.  That inning saw a ground rule double by leadoff hitter and 1B Matt Carpenter; a walk to CF Randal Grichuk; a single (to load the bases) by 2B Kolten Wong; a two-run single by SS Jhonny Peralta; an intentional walk (to load the bases) to RF Jason Heyward; a non-scoring fly out by C Yadier Molina; and, finally, a game-winning walk to 3B Greg Garcia.  So, that walk-off walk came at the end of a three-run inning and was preceded by a pair of walks and three hits to the outfield.  Finally, there is the more classic extra-inning walk-off walk.  On August 5, the White Sox started the bottom of the tenth inning of a 5-5 tie (with the Rays) with a single by CF Adam Eaton – who stole second and went to third on an error by the shortstop. Following a fly out to short LF by 3B Tyler Saldino, the Rays intentionally walked 1B Jose Abreu and LF Melky Cabrera (loading the bases and setting up a force out at the plate or a potential double play). RF Avisail then walked to bring in the winner. In this case, stolen bases and two intentional walks set up the game-ender.

MOST BASES-LOADED WALKS IN A GAME/INNING

• The record for bases-loaded walks in a single game is eight – all by the White Sox (and all in a single inning) in a 20-6 victory over the Kansas City A’s on April 22, 1959. In the seventh inning of that game, the White Sox drew eight bases-loaded walks, while scoring eleven runs on just one hit. (For a full accounting of the inning, click here.)
• In the April 22, 1959 White Sox/A’s game, Nellie Fox had a record two bases-loaded walks in a single inning.
• Ellis Burks holds the record for bases-loaded walks in game. On, September 2, 2000 – as his Giants beat the Cubs 13-2 – Burks drew three bases-loaded walks (in the first and second innings off  Reuben Quevedo and in the sixth off Felix Heredia). The Giants drew five bases-loaded free passes in the game.

MOST BASES-LOADED WALKS IN A WORLD SERIES GAME

The only player to draw two bases-loaded walks in a World Series game is Orioles’ pitcher Jim Palmer, who walked with the sacks full in the fourth and fifth innings, as the Orioles topped the Pirates 11-3, on October 11, 1971.  Notably Palmer walked only three times (while striking out 41) in 116 regular season plate appearances. For those who wish to commiserate with the victim(s), the walks were issued by Bruce Kison and Bob Veale.

INTENTIONAL BASES-LOADED WALKS

Only six players have been intentionally walked with the bases loaded (Baseball-Almanac.com):

• Abner Dalrymple, Chicago (NL), August 2, 1881
• Napoleon Lajoie, Philadelphia (AL), May 23, 1901
• Del Bissonette, Brooklyn (NL), May 2, 1928
• Bill Nicholson, Chicago (NL) July 23, 1944
• Barry Bonds, San Francisco (NL), May 28, 1998
• Josh Hamilton, Texas (AL), August 17, 2008

SCORING ALL YOU R RUNS ON BASESS LOADED WALKS

BBRT didn’t have any luck finding a game in which a team scored all its runs via the bases-loaded walk – but did find a game in which a team scored all four of its meaningful runs on bases-full free passes – and an insurance run on a sacrifice fly.

Last July 19^th, The Cleveland Indians and the Cincinnati Reds took part in an all-Ohio face off at the Great American Ballpark. It was, in some ways, a “classic” matchup – an eleven-inning Cleveland victory in which the two teams used a combined 37 players, including 13 pitchers and seven pinch hitters. What caught BBRT’s attention is that none of the Indians’ 13 hits resulted in an RBI.  In fact, the Indians came very close to scoring all their runs on bases-loaded walks. The Tribe scored its first four runs on bases-loaded free passes – and tallied its last run on a sacrifice fly.  The only Cleveland runner who attempted to score on a base hit was thrown out at the plate.

COMING SOON – Thirty things (one for each team), BBRT hopes to see in 2016.

Fan of baseball trivia?  BBRT has two 99 question (Ballpark Tours tested) trivia quizzes.  For BBRT’s 99 favorite questions, click here.   For a second 99, click here.

Ballpark Tours great 2016 excursion (10 days, 10 games, 7 cities), outlined here. 

I tweet baseball @DavidBBRT

Member:  Society for American Baseball Research (SABR); The Baseball Reliquary; Baseball Bloggers Alliance.

BBRT would like to make a prediction for 2016 that may not be as much of a “given” as it might seem.  I’d like to predict that a Pirate, Marlin or Oriole pitcher will throw a complete game sometime during the 2016 season.  Why might that prediction put me out on a limb?

In 2015, the Pirates, Orioles and Marlins failed to record a single complete game among them. Notably, the lack of complete games did not seem to serve as an indicator of team performance.

• One of the three teams finished twenty or more games over .500 (Pirates, 98-64); one finished right at .500 (Orioles, 81-81); and one finished 20 or more games below .500 (Marlins., 71-91).
• They also finished sixth, fourteenth and twenty-second in quality starts (Pittsburgh-92; Miami-83; Baltimore-72.  (MLB average-81).
• Despite the lack of a single complete game, the three teams recorded 35 shutouts on the season.

Corey Kluber tied for the MLB lead with four complete games – helping the Indians achieve a 2015 MLB-best 11 CG.
Photo by Keith Allison.

One the other side of the coin, the Cleveland Indians led all of MLB with 11 complete games in 2015 – as many as the Royals, Twins, Phillies, Brewers, Rays, Mets, Cardinals, Padres, Diamondbacks, Orioles, Pirates and Marlins COMBINED.  Note: Four of those teams made it to the post season; the Cardinals finished with MLB’s lowest earned run average (despite only one complete game); and Pittsburgh, with no complete games, had MLB’s second-lowest ERA.  The Indians finished seventh in quality starts (91) and notched 11 team shutouts.

These numbers from 2015 reflect the continuing disappearance of the complete game in major league baseball.  Here are more “telling” statistics:

– In 1900, 82.3% of games started were complete games;

– 1925 – 49.2%

– 1950 – 40.3%

–  1975 – 27.2%

–  2000 – 4.8%

– 2010 – 3.4%

– 2015 – 2.2%

For BBRT’s comments (a rant actually) on five reasons why the complete games have become a thing of the past, click here.

Looking ahead? For BBRT’S 2016 National League Predictions (Division Races and Awards), click here.  For 2016 AL Predictions, click here. 

Fan of baseball trivia?  BBRT has two 99 question (Ballpark Tours tested) trivia quizzes.  For BBRT’s 99 favorite questions, click here.   For a second 99, click here.

Ballpark Tours great 2016 excursion (10 days, 10 games, 7 cities), outlined here. 

I tweet baseball @DavidBBRT

Member:  Society for American Baseball Research (SABR); The Baseball Reliquary; Baseball Bloggers Alliance.

“The daily box score – the symphony of a game recorded in a space one- column wide by four-inches deep.  Some would say the box score reduces the game to statistics, I would say it elevates the game to history.”

                                    Baseball Roundtable

                                               Ten Reasons Why I Love Baseball

                                                March 18, 2012

Spring Training games are once again underway and one of my favorite things about baseball – the box scores – are back.   Each preseason, the first round of box scores coming in from Arizona and Florida takes me back to my youth, when I would get up a half hour early once the baseball season started, just so I could fully digest the previous day’s box scores along with my morning juice and cereal.  As an adult, breakfast fare shifted to coffee and toast or bagels – but the box scores remained a morning staple.   I may be dating myself here but, while I do recognize the immediacy and portability of box scores provided by smartphones and other devices, for me these icons of our national pastime are best devoured first thing in the morning – over the smell of hot coffee and newsprint.

Today’s box score can be a thing of beauty.

The box scores – one-newspaper-column-wide by four-inches-deep summaries of each day’s baseball action – provide a staggering amount of information. Depending on the publication, these icons of baseball past and present can answer a wide range of questions for the baseball fan. What do you want to know about the contest?  Who played what positions and where did they bat in the order? How about each player’s (and team totals) at bats, hits, extra base hits, runs scored or batted in, stolen bases (and caught stealing), strikeouts and walks? Or for the pitchers, how many: innings pitched; hits allowed; walks issued; hit batsmen; batters struck out; runs and earned runs allowed? Or you may want to know who got credit for a win, loss, save or blown save. You can even find the number of pitches (and number of strikes) thrown by each hurler. Players errors also are documented as are participants in double plays. It’s all there – as are a line score, game time, weather, attendance, runners left on base, and more.

“A box score is more than a capsule archive. It is a precisely etched miniature of the sport itself, for baseball, in spite of its grassy spaciousness and apparent unpredictability, is the most intensely and satisfyingly mathematical of all our outdoor sports. Every player in every game is subjected to a cold and ceaseless accounting; no ball is thrown and no base is gained without an instant responding judgment – ball or strike, hit or error, yea or nay – and an ensuing statistic. This encompassing neatness permits the baseball fan, aided by experience and memory, to extract from a box score the same joy, the same hallucinatory reality, that pickles the scalp of a musician when he glances at a page of his score of Don Giovanni and actually hears bassos and sopranos, woodwinds and violins.”

                                                      Roger Angell

                                                     The Summer Game

Today’s expanded box scores not only provide fans a look at each day’s competitions and performances, but also provide a perspective on the season.  In many publications, batting averages (on the season-to-date) are listed to the far right of each players line, as are each pitcher’s earned run average (season-to-date).  The number of  extra base hits or RBI on the season are provided for players who added to their  totals on that day; pitchers’ won-lost records or total saves (and total save opportunities) are similarly provided for those hurlers who added to their totals in the particular contest captured in the box score.

So, who do we salute for making this tiny, rectangular treasure trove of information available to baseball fans?  Hats off to Baseball Hall of Famer Henry Chadwick – the only sportswriter elected to the non-writers portion of the  BB HOF.

Henry Chadwick (1824-1908)

Elected to Baseball Hall of Fame in 1938

Henry Chadwick – his development of the box score helped earn him a spot in the Baseball Hall of Fame.

Born in Exter, England, Henry Chadwick was a fan (and player) of ball-and-bat games like rounders and cricket in his early years.  Chadwick moved to the United States in 1837 and was employed as a cricket reporter for the New York Times. It’s been reported that, while not initially a big fan of base ball (it was two words back then),  Chadwick took in a very well-played base ball game between New York City’s Gotham and Eagle squads in 1856 – and changed his views of America’s bat-and-ball competition. Chadwick later spoke of how he was enthralled by the game and truly felt it reflected the spirit of America.

As a result of this encounter with base ball, Chadwick dedicated himself to putting baseball in the hearts and minds of the American public.  From covering the sport for the times, he moved on to writing regular columns on base ball for the New York Clipper and Sunday Mercury newspapers – quickly earning a reputation as one of (if not the) top chroniclers of the game.  Just three years after taking in that Gothams-Eagles contest, Chadwick put forth his first modern box score – detailing a game between the Brooklyn Excelsior and Brooklyn starts –  documenting such statistics as hits, runs, put-outs, assists, errors and strikeouts. He went on to further refine his box score, as a means to enable his newspaper audience to see the game at home.

Chadwick’s contributions, however, went well beyond the box score. He also set himself to the task of documenting player performance and providing a source of player comparison – developing such enduring statistics as batting average and earned run average.  Chadwick is also credited with authoring baseball’s first rule book and the sport’s first player and statistical reference books.

How enduring were Chadwick’s contributions?  The box score, while expanded, remains firmly based in Chadwick’s work. Batting and earned run averages remain key statistics for evaluating player performance. Then there are all those “K’s” fans hang on the railing when their home-team fireballer is mowing down opposing batters. It was Henry Chadwick who developed the use of “K” (the last letter in the word struck) to denote a strikeout on the score sheet. He also was a leader in such rules changes as the extension of a tie game into extra innings and  requiring a ball be caught on the fly for an out (rather than on the fly or first bounce).

Chadwick’s successful contributions to expansion of baseball’s hold on the hearts and minds of the American public were so significant that, after his death in 1908, flags in every major league park were flown at half-mast and he is the only sportswriter ever elected to the non-writers section of the Baseball Hall of Fame.

So, each morning, as I peruse the box scores (in my local daily newspaper), I raise my cup of coffee in a toast to Henry Chadwick.

     Embed from Getty Images

The box score, by the way, is only one of the many reasons I love baseball – for a top ten list, click here.

Looking ahead? For BBRT’S 2016 National League Predictions (Division Races and Awards), click here.  For 2016 AL Predictions, click here. 

Fan of baseball trivia?  BBRT has two 99 question (Ballpark Tours tested) trivia quizzes.  For BBRT’s 99 favorite questions, click here.   For a second 99, click here.

Ballpark Tours great 2016 excursion (10 days, 10 games, 7 cities), outlined here. 

I tweet baseball @DavidBBRT

Member: Society for American Baseball Research (SABR); The Baseball Reliquary; Baeball Bloggers Alliance.