The Baseball Hall of Fame.
The 2015 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot is now in the hands of the members of the Baseball Writers Association of America, with the results to be reported January 7, 2015. As in 2014, there are some strong newcomers and, also like last year (when first-timers Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine headed the ballot), this year’s most likely first-ballot electees are pitchers – Randy Johnson and Pedro Martinez. Other big names making their first appearance on the ballot include: Nomar Garciaparra, Gary Sheffield, John Smoltz, Carlos Delgado and Troy Percival.
In this post, I’ll take a look at how BBRT would vote (if I had a ballot), as well as BBRT’s predictions for the actual BBWAA results. By way of review, each BBWAA member can vote for up to ten players, and a player must receive 75 percent support to earn election. In an upcoming post, BBRT will look at the Golden Era Hall of Fame voting.
If recent balloting is any indication, we can expect a significant number of writers will decline to vote for players suspected of (or having admitted to) PED use, which seems a legitimate reason. Others will hold back votes from first-timers to make a statement on “what it takes to be a first-ballot inductee” (a less legitimate reason than the PED issue) and still others may send in blank ballots (for no apparent reason). So, let’s start with a quick list of what BBRT’s ballot would look like. Then we’ll move on to my predictions for the actual BBWAA results and, finally, take a more detailed look at the players who would garner BBRT’s votes.
BBRT’s Hall of Fame Selections – if I had a vote – In Priority Order
First a quick list, later a more detailed look at BBRT’s selections.
Group One – Should Be No Doubt
1. Randy Johnson– 303 wins, 4,875 strikeouts (second all-time), five Cy Young Awards (including four consecutive 1999-2002)
2. Pedro Martinez– 219 wins, three Cy Young Awards, five-time ERA leader
3. Craig Biggio– 3,060 hits, 1,884 runs scored, 291 HRs, 414 steals
Group Two – Debatable, But Clearly Deserving Support
4. John Smoltz – Only pitcher in MLB history to top both 200 wins and 150 saves, led NL in wins as a starter (24 in 1966) and saves as a reliever (55 in 2002), compiled a 15-4 post-season record (with four saves for good measure)
5. Lee Smith– 478 saves (third all- time), three times league saves leader
6. Mike Piazza – .308 career average, most home runs by a catcher, 12-time All Star
7. Jeff Kent – Most home runs by any second baseman, nine more RBI than Mickey Mantle, 2000 NL MVP
Group Threee – More Debatable, But Would Get BBRT’s Vote
8. Jeff Bagwell – 449 HRs, 202 steals, 1,529 RBI, 1991 NL Rookie of the Year, 1994 NL MVP, twice recorded seasons of 40 or more HRs and 30 or more steals
9. Mike Mussina – 270 wins, five-time All Star, seven-time Gold Glove winner, six times finished in top five in Cy Young voting
10. Tim Raines– 808 stolen bases (fifth all time), 2,605 hits (.294 career average), 1,571 runs scored.
BBRT Predictions as to Whom the Baseball Writers Will Vote In
BBRT projects that the BBWAA, being stingier than BBRT with their votes, will elect:
- Randy Johnson,
- Pedro Martinez
- Craig Biggio
I also see two dark horse candidates for 2015, in this order of likelihood:
- John Smoltz’ post-season record may give him just the push he needs to become a “first-ballot” inductee, but BBRT expects it to be very close
- Mike Piazza, with 62.2 percent of the vote one year ago, is a potential dark horse candidate to make the jump to 75 percent – but will more likely move up to about 66-68 percent
Big names associated with the PED issue – they will not be named here, but the vote totals will tell you – are likely to remain on the sidelines, as emotions related to PED-use continue to run high. (In BBRT’s line of thinking, there is a difference between proven and suspected PED use – and between solid evidence and rumors.) In addition, players like Nomar Garciaparra (1997 Rookie of the Year, six-time All Star, two-time batting champion), Carlos Delgado (473 home runs, 1,512 RBI) and Troy Percival (358 saves, ninth all-time) are likely fall victim to the higher standards some voters require of first-ballot inductees.
I expect a handful of players to move closer to the 75-percent mark, including Mike Mussina, Mike Piazza (if he doesn’t get in), Jeff Bagwell, Tim Raines and Jeff Kent. Note: All five of these players would get BBRT’s vote this year.
A More Detailed Look at BBRT’s Selections from This Year’s HOF Ballot
Should Be Elected Easily
BBRT believes this first group of players should be locks for 2015 Hall of Fame induction.
Randy Johnson (LHP, 1988-2009 – first time on ballot)
The Big Unit should be headed for the Hall of Fame.
Maybe a good nickname helps (especially if you notch 300 wins on the mound). Last year’s HOF ballot was headed by Greg “The Professor” Maddux and his 355 career victories. This year’s ballot features Hall of Fame shoo-in Randy “The Big Unit” Johnson, who notched 303 wins (versus 166 losses) and 4,875 strikeouts (second all-time) in 4,135 innings pitched. The 6’ 10”, 225-pound Johnson was an intimidating specter and force on the mound. He was known for a blazing fastball and hard slider, and his 10.61 strikeouts per nine innings ranks number-one among qualifying starting pitchers. Johnson, who held hitters to a .221 average (eighth all-time), was a ten-time All-Star and five-time Cy Young Award winner (second only to Roger Clemens). He led his league in strikeouts nine times (topping 300 in a season six times), ERA four times, complete games four times, winning percentage four times and victories once. He ran off four straight NL Cy Young Awards (1999-2002) and, over those four seasons, went 81-27, 2.48 with 1,417 strikeouts in 1,030 innings pitched. Johnson threw two no-hitters (one – on May 18, 2004 – a perfect game.) He was also the 2001 World Series MVP – going 3-0. 1.04 in three starts (striking out 19 in 17 1/3 innings).
Johnson pitched for the Montreal Expos (1988-89); the Seattle Mariners (1989-98); Houston Astros (1998); Arizona Diamondbacks (1999-2004 and 2007-08); the New York Yankees (2005-06); and the San Francisco Giants (2009).
Randy Johnson’s best season: 2002 Arizona Diamondbacks … Johnson earned his fourth consecutive Cy Young Award while leading the NL in wins (24 – versus just five losses), winning percentage (.828), ERA (2.32), complete games (eight), innings pitched (260) and strikeouts (334). It was also his fourth consecutive season of 300+ strikeouts.
Randy Johnson’s most unusual season: In 1998, Johnson started the season with the Seattle Mariners (for whom he had won 20 games the year before – not to mention the Cy Young Award in 1995). There had been some conflict over his contract and both Seattle and Johnson got off to a slow start. On July 31, the Mariners traded Johnson to Houston for three talented minor leaguers (Freddy Garcia, Carlos Guillen and John Halama), who went on to put together a combined 38 major league seasons. At the time, the Mariners were at the bottom of the AL West with a 48-60 record, while the Astros led the NL Central at 65-44. Johnson ended July with a 9-10, 4.33 ERA record in 23 starts. He turned his season around with the Astros, going 10-1, 1.28 in 11 starts – helping Houston to a 102-60 record and the Division title.
Pedro Martinez (RHP, 1992-2009 – first time on ballot)
Pedro Martnez brought an arsenal of “plus” pitches and elite control to the mound.
Pedro Martinez, like Randy Johnson, was known as a power pitcher – twice topping 300 strikeouts in a season. He brought his power from a different platform, generously listed at 5’11’, 170-pounds. Martinez mowed hitters down by coupling excellent control with a “plus” fastball, cutter, curveball and circle change. Early in his career, Martinez’ fastball was clocked in the mid-to-high 90s, while later he used his combination of pitch selection and control to continue to win with a fastball in the high 80s.
Martinez ran up a 219-100 record, a 2.93 ERA and 3,154 strikeouts in 18 seasons. Among qualifying starting pitchers, only Randy Johnson recorded more strikeouts per nine innings than Martinez’ 10.04. He captured three Cy Young Awards (1997, 1999, 2000) and was an eight-time All Star. His HOF resume also includes a league-low ERA in five seasons, and a league-high in strikeouts three times. Martinez, with 760 career bases on balls, is one of only four pitchers to log 3,000+ strikeouts with fewer than 1,000 walks (Curt Schilling – 3,116 Ks/ 711 BBs; Fergie Jenkins – 3,192/997; Greg Maddux – 3,371/999). Martinez held opposing hitters to a .214 average over his career – the fourth-lowest in MLB history. His .687 winning percentage is the third-highest all-time and second-highest in the modern era (behind Whitey Ford’s .690; 238-106). Martinez logged a 6-4 post-season record, with a 3.46 ERA and 96 strikeouts in 96 1/3 innings.
Martinez pitched for the Los Angeles Dodgers (1992-93); Montreal Expos (1994-97); Boston Red Sox (1998-2004); New York Mets (2005-08); and Philadelphia Phillies (2009).
Pedro Martinez’ best season: 1999 Boston Red Sox … Martinez led the AL in wins (23), winning percentage (23-4, .852), ERA (2.07) and strikeouts (313 in just 213 1/3 innings), while winning his second Cy Young Award.
Pedro Martinez’ remarkable run: After going 17-8 with an NL-best 1.90 ERA for Montreal in 1997, Martinez was traded to the Boston Red Sox for pitcher Carlos Pavano and a Player to Be Named Later (Tony Armas, Jr.). In his time with the Red Sox, Martinez went 117-37, with a 2.52 ERA and 1,683 strikeouts in 1,383 1/3 innings.
Craig Biggio (2B/C/OF, 1988-2007 – third time on the ballot)
Craig Biggio getting his bat on the ball for 3,000+ hits should be his ticket to the Hall of Fame.
It takes 75 percent of the vote to enter the “Hall” and, last year, Biggio just missed at 74.8 percent (two votes shy). This should be his year. In 20 seasons, Biggio recorded 3,060 base hits (20th all time), 1,884 runs (154h all time), hit 291 home runs and stole 414 bases. He was a seven-time All Star and a four-time Gold Glove winner, who spent notable time at second base, catcher and in the outfield. He led the NL in runs twice, doubles three times, stolen bases once and hit-by-pitch five times. His 668 doubles are the most ever by a right-handed hitter (and fifth all time). He holds the NL record for home runs to lead off a game (53) and for hit-by-pitch (285). Biggio played his entire 18-year MLB career with the Houston Astros.
Craig Biggio’s best year: 1998 Houston Astros … 160 games, .325 average , 210 hits, 123 runs, 20 HRs, 88 RBI, league-leading 51 doubles, 50 stolen bases.
Craig Biggio fact: Biggio is one of only two players to hit 50 doubles and steal 50 bases in the same season.
Deserving Candidates Who Also Would Get BBRT’s Vote (If I had one)
This next group of candidates consists of players whose entrance into the Hall of Fame might prompt some discussion and debate – but when the discussion is done, BBRT is confident they should be seen as deserving of election.
John Smoltz (RHP, 1988-2009 – 1st time on ballot)
Smoltz is the only MLB hurler to notch 200+ wins (213) and 150+ saves (154) in his career – as well as one of only two pitchers to have a 20-win season and a 50-save season. In 1996, he went 24-8 as a starter for the Braves, leading the NL in wins, winning percentage (24-6, .750), strikeouts( 276) and innings pitched (253 2/3). Five seasons later, after Tommy John surgery, Smoltz led the NL in saves with 55, while going 3-2, 3.25 with 85 strikeouts in 80 1/3 innings as the Braves’ closer. The eight-time All Star won the NL Cy Young Award in 1996 and was the Rolaids Relief Man of the Year in 2005. He led the NL in wins twice, winning percentage twice, strikeouts twice, innings pitched twice and saves once. He finished his career at 213-155, 3.33, with 154 saves and 3,084 strikeouts in 3,473 innings pitched. Smoltz was a beast in the post season, appearing in 41 games and recording 15 wins (versus just four losses), four saves, 199 strikeouts (in 209 innings pitched) and a 2.67 ERA.
Might be a little shy of support from those who place heavy emphasis on first-ballot selection, but has a chance to make it in this year.
Smoltz’ best year: 1996 Braves … League-leading wins (24), winning percentage (24-6 .750), and strikeouts (276). Won the Cy Young Award. Followed up by going 4-1, 0.95 in the post season – striking out 33 in 38 innings.
Smoltz’ fact: Smoltz was pretty much equally effective at home and on the road. In 363 home appearances, he went 108-77, 3.29. In 360 road appearances, he went 105-78, 3.37.
Lee Smith (RHP, 1980-97 – 13th time on the ballot)
I’d love for this to be lucky number thirteen for Lee Smith. However, last year Smith got only 29.9 percent of the vote, and that’s a lot of ground to make up. Smith’s 478 saves put him third on the all-time list (he was number-one when he retired after the 1997 season). He recorded 13 consecutive seasons (in an 18-year career) of 25 or more saves, a 3.03 lifetime ERA and 1,251 strikeouts in 1,289 innings pitched; led his league in saves four times; made seven All Star teams; and was the Rolaids Relief Man of the Year in three seasons. Smith pitched for the Chicago Cubs (1980-87); Boston Red Sox (1988-90); St. Louis Cardinals (1990-93); New York Yankees (1993); Baltimore Orioles (1994); California Angels (1995-96); Cincinnati Reds (1996); Montreal Expos (1997).
With the third most saves all time, Smith gets BBRT’s vote.
Lee Smith’s best season: 1991, Cardinals … 6-3, 2.34 ERA, 47 saves, 73 innings pitched, 67 strikeouts.
Lee Smith fact: Smith is one of only 16 pitchers to appear in 1,000 or more games.
Mike Piazza (C, 1992-2007 – Third year on the ballot)
Mike Piazza’s stat sheet includes a .308 career average, 427 home runs (a MLB-record 396 as a catcher), a Rookie of the Year Award, 12 All Star Selections and ten Silver Slugger Awards as the best hitter at his position. Over his career, he collected 2,127 hits, 1,335 RBI and scored 1,048 runs. He hit .242, with six home runs and 15 RBI in 32 post season games. Piazza got 62.2 percent of the vote last year and should improve this year – maybe even to the required 75 percent.
Piazza’s best year: 1997, Dodgers – .362 avg., 201 hits, 104 runs, 40 HR, 124 RBI.
Piazza fact: Piazza’s career defied expectations: He was the 1,390th player selected in the 1988 MLB draft (62nd round). Five years later, he was a major league All Star, NL Rookie of the Year and a Silver Slugger winner.
Jeff Kent (2B/3B/1B, 1992-2008 – second year on the ballot)
Despite the fact that only 15.2 percent of the writers voted for Kent last year (his first on the ballot), BBRT believes Kent is a deserving candidate. Kent holds the all-time MLB record for home runs by a second baseman (351 of his 377 career round trippers were hit while playing second base). He has a healthy .290 career batting average and his 1,518 RBI are 51st all time (for perspective, Kent drove in nine more runs than Mickey Mantle). Kent was a five-time All Star, four-time Silver Slugger winner and 2000 NL MVP. He hit .276, with nine home runs and 23 RBI in 49 post-season games.
Kent has the credentials, but BBRT has a hunch the writers will make keep him waiting – a couple of Gold Gloves, at this traditionally defense-oriented position, would have really helped his case.
Jeff Kent’s best season: SF Giants, 2000: 159 games, 196 hits, .334 average, 33 home runs, 125 RBI, 114 runs, 12 steals. NL MVP.
Jeff Kent fact: Kent hit .276, with nine home runs and 23 RBI in 49 post-season games.
More Debatable, But Would Still Get BBRT’s Vote
More debate is likely to swirl around this group. They may be on the cusp when it comes to election (some for this year, some overall); but BBRT would use all ten votes.
Jeff Bagwell (1B, 1991-2005 – fifth year on the ballot)
Jeff Bagwell earned Hall of Fame consideration with a 15-year career that included 2,314 hits, 449 home runs, 202 stolen bases and a .297 average – along with a Rookie of the Year Award, a Most Valuable Player Award, one Gold Glove and four All Star selections. He also twice recorded seasons of 40 or more homers and 30 or more steals. Bagwell’s chances are hurt a bit by the fact that first base has been manned by so many power hitters over time. Bagwell played his entire career with the Houston Astros.
BBRT would vote for Bagwell, who picked up 54.3 percent of the vote last year and should improve this season.
Bagwell’s best season: Bagwell really gives us two good choices here. 1994 Astros … Baggy hit .368, with 39 homers and 15 stolen bases, while leading the NL in runs (104) and RBI (116) and earning a Gold Glove. Bagwell also won the NL MVP Award despite playing just 110 of the Astros’ 144 games in the strike-shortened season. 2000 Astros … .310 average, 183 hits, 152 runs, 132 RBI, 47 home runs.
Bagwell’s durability: Jeff Bagwell played all 162 of the Astros’ regular season games in four of his fifteen seasons – and topped 155 games ten times.
Mike Mussina (RHP, 1991-2008 – second year on the ballot)
It’s another tough year on the ballot for Mike Mussina. In his first year (2014), he was overshadowed by fellow first-timers Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine (both 300-game winners). This year, Mussina must contend with the first HOF ballot appearances of Randy Johnson (another 300-game winner) and Pedro Martinez. The writers are likely to ask Mussina to wait, but BBRT would cast a vote for “Moose.” Last year, Mussina garnered just 20.3 percent of the vote. Expect improvement this year.
Mussina built a 270-153 record, a career 3.68 ERA and 2,813 strikeouts over 18 seasons. While only a 20-game winner once (in his final season, at age 39), Mussina won 18 or 19 games five times, leading the AL with 19 wins in 1995. He was a five-time All Star and a seven-time Gold Glove winner. While the lack of a Cy Young Award on his resume may hurt him, he finished his career 117 games over .500 – and history says 100 or more wins than losses is good for a ticket to the HOF.
Mike Mussina’s best season: 2008 New York Yankees … Mussina may have saved his best for last. In his final season, at age 39, he recorded his first twenty-win campaign. That year, Mussina went 20-9, 3.37 – and proved his durability by leading the AL in starts with 34.
Mussina fact: In his first three full seasons in the major leagues (1992-94) Mussina put up a .700 or better winning percentage each year (.783, .700, .762). His record over that span – for the Orioles – was 48-16.
Tim Raines (OF, 1979-2001 – eighth year on the ballot.)
Tim Raines hit .294 over his 23-season MLB career, collecting 2,605 hits, 1,571 runs scored, 170 home runs, 980 RBI and 808 stolen bases (#5 all time). Raines was successful on 83.5 percent of his career steal attempts. He was a seven-time All Star, led the NL in stolen bases four consecutive years (1981-84), had a streak of six seasons with at least 70 steals, won the NL batting title in 1986 with a .334 average, led the league in runs scored twice and doubles once. In 34 post-season games, he hit .270 with one home run, six RBI, 18 runs scored and three steals.
More debatable than Piazza or Bagwell, but Raines would get BBRT’s vote.
Raines’ best season: BBRT did not select Raines’ 1986 batting title year, but rather his 1983 season with the Expos … 156 games, 179 hits, .298 average, league-leading 133 runs scored, 11 homers, 71 RBI, league-leading 90 steals.
Raines was always running: Over 23 seasons, Raines average 35 steals a year (and that included six seasons in which he played in less than half his team’s games). Over his MLB career – from age 19 to 42 – Raines averaged 52 stolen bases for every 162 games played.
So, there’s BBRT’s regular Hall of Fame “selections.” Again, coming soon, a look at the Golden Era HOF election.
BBRT invites your comments on the 2015 Hall of Fame election.
