The next couple of posts will take a look at BBRT’s annual “predictions,” starting with the American League – where I expect quite a shakeup at the top, including a playoff scenario that does not include the Red Sox (new attitude, not as much talent) nor the Yankees (age and injuries catching up). First the individual awards, then the Division Winners and Wild Cards
MVP – Evan Longoria
Longoria puts in a full season and leads the Rays to a Wild Card spot. He edges out Mike Trout and Albert Pujols of the Angels (who suffer the fate of playing on a team with three potential MVP’s – Trout, Pujols, Hamilton) and Miguel Cabrera, who splits support with Justin Verlander and Prince Fielder. Supporting evidence? In 2012, the Rays were 47-27 with Longoria in the lineup, 43-45 without him.
Cy Young – Justin Verlander
Justin Verlander brings home the trophy, finishing in the top three in pretty much every pitching category. His main competition comes from the Rangers’ Yu Darvish and the Angels’ Jered Weaver
Rookie of the Year – Jurickson Profar
In a close race, Rangers’ switch-hitting infielder Jurickson Profar’s combination of power, speed and defensive ability enables him to not only earn an early season spot in the everyday lineup, but also to squeak by Rays outfielder Wil Myers in the ROY race.
Now for the Division Winners:
WEST – Angels
Albert Pujols will have even more help in the Angels lineup this season.
Once again, the Angels went big on the free agent market – adding Josh Hamilton to a line-up that already featured Albert Pujols, Mike Trout and Mark Trumbo. Last season, that quartet put up 135 home runs and drove in 411 runners. The Angels also have some speed, with Trout’s 49 steals, second baseman Kendricks’ 14 and shortstop Erick Aybar’s 20. The starting pitching is solid at the top with Jered Weaver and C.J. Wilson, but it gets a bit thin at 3-5 (Jason Vargas, Tommy Hanson and Joe Blanton). Of greater concerns is whether the relief corps goes deep enough with off-season acquisition Ryan Madson (tabbed as closer) recently suffering a setback in his Tommy John rehab. Ernesto Frieri seems ready to fill that gap, having saved 23 games a year ago (80 strikeouts in 54 innings). Still, BBRT thinks the offense will be enough to bring the Angels home in first place this time. The rest, in order of finish:
Rangers … Still plenty of offense (Adrian Beltre, Nelson Cruz, David Murphy, Elvis Andrus and Ian Kinsler) and pitching (Yu Darvish, Matt Harrison, Derek Holland and Joe Nathan. But losing Josh Hamilton and missing out on Zach Grienke will see them falling short.
A’s … Young pitching may keep them in the race, but not much offense after Yoenis Cespedes, Josh Reddick and Brandon Moss.
Mariners … Everything pretty thin after King Felix.
Astros … New league, same result.
EAST-Blue Jays
R.A. Dickey takes his knuckler … and Cy Young credentials … to the Blue Jays.
Used to be the off-season for the AL East was all about the Yankees and Red Sox making move and counter move in an effort to finish at the top. Move over tradition – the Blue Jays are here. There was the 12-player trade with the Marlins that brought Toronto the likes of shortstop Jose Reyes (considered to have had a bit of an off season in 2012, despite going .287, with 11 home runs and 40 steals); second baseman Emilio Bonifacio (30 steals in 2012); and a pair of solid starting pitchers in innings-eating lefty Mark Buehrle (13-13, 3.74) and Josh Johnson (8-14, but with a 3.81 ERA last season). Then they added the NL Cy Young Award winner R.A. Dickey from the Mets. Also new to the team is Melky Cabrera, out to prove his solid pre-suspension numbers for the Giants weren’t all PED-related.
These new cast members joined holdovers like righty Brandon Morrow (10-7, 2.96 in 21 starts); power-hitting Edwin Encarcion and Jose Bautista; and third-baseman Brett Lawrie (just 23), who went .273-11-48 in his first full season in the bigs. The supporting cast looks just fine as well. Catcher J.P. Arencibia contributed 18 roundtrippers and 56 RBI; and outfielder Colby Rasmus added 23 homers and 75 RBI.
The bullpen, led by Casey Janssen (1-1, 22 saves, 2.64 and 67 strikeouts in 64 innings), Sergio Santos and Darren Oliver may not have “star power,” but should be strong enough to help move the revamped Jays from last year’s 73 wins to 91 and first place in a very tight AL East. The rest of the Division:
Rays … Quality pitching and a full season of big banger Evan Longoria keeps them in the race, but they’re one bat short.
Yankees … Still a lot of talent on this squad, but age and injury take their toll.
Red Sox … Clubhouse attitude should be vastly improved, product on the field just enough to climb out of the cellar.
Orioles … 2012 Cinderella team here’s the clock strike midnight. No true ace on the pitching staff (Wei-Yin Chen led starters with 12 wins last year) and – despite balanced lineup, the Orioles comes back to reality. Two things not likely to repeat: a 29-9 record in one-run games and 51 saves from Jim Johnson (although 40 is a real possibility).
AL CENTRAL – Tigers
Miguel Cabrera will help power the Tigers back to the World Series.
Not much contention here. Whether it’s power bats or power arms, the Tigers have what they need to take it all in the AL Central. The offense is led (at the corners) by Triple Crown and MVP winner Miguel Cabrera (.327-44-139) and Price Fielder (.313-30-108), while the pitching staff boasts consistent Cy Young candidates Justin Verlander (17-8, 2.64) and Max Scherzer (16-7, 3.74) – who finished 1 & 2 in the AL strikeout race.
Offensively, the Tigers also expect solid contributions from centerfielder Austin Jackson in the leadoff spot (.300, with 103 runs, 16 home runs and 16 stolen bases a year ago.) They let post-season hero Delmon Young slip away in the off season, but added veteran outfielder Torii Hunter, who comes into the season at 37-years-old – but also off a .313-16-92 season with the Angels. He should more than make up for Young’s loss at the plate, in the field and in the club house. The Tiger are also excited about Andy Dirks and Avisail Garcia (27- and 22-years-old, respectively) – who both performed well in limited time last year.
The coming season will also see the return of Victor Martinez (at DH), who missed all of last season (knee surgery). In 2011, Martinez, with a lifetime .303 average over ten seasons, hit .330, with 12 home runs and 103 RBI. A return to even near-form would be like adding a premier free agent. At the bottom of the lineup, you’ll likely find steady shortstop Jhonny Peralta, catcher Alex Avila and second baseman Omar Infante, who will hold their own.
Getting back to the starting rotation, 3-4-5 look to be Doug Fister, Anibel Sanchez and either Rick Porcello or Drew Smyly. With the offense the Tigers bring to the plate, that rotation should be more than enough.
The only question mark is the relief staff. The Tigers let closer Jose Valverde leave via free agency and the leading candidate to replace him appears to be 22-year-old flame-throwing rookie Bruce Rondon – who moved from A to AA to AAA a year ago, going a combined 2-1, 1.53 with 29 saves and 66 punch outs in 53 innings. There’s plenty of experience in the rest of the pen, with Octovio Dotel, Joaquin Benoit and Phil Coke. But, if Rondon falters, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Tigers go out and get a bonafide ninth-inning hurler.
All in all, Detroit is a well-balanced squad that should easily win the Central – followed by:
White Sox … Solid starting pitching (Chris Sale, Jake Peavy, John Danks, Gavin Floyd) and some Punch in the lineup (Paul Konerko, Adam Dunn, Alex Rios and youngster Dayan Viciedo), plus off-season pickup (3B) Jeff Keppinger (.325 with the Rays last year) help keep the White Sox in the race. Still the Sox have more questions (Danks’ recovery from surgery, Konerko’s age, can Flowers replace Pierzynski) and less talent up and down the roster than the Tigers.
Royals … Took steps forward in the off-season, but after newcomers true “ace” James Shields and Wade Davis, the starting rotation lacks a record of consistency. Still, a strong bullpen and the bats of Alex Gordon, Billy Butler and Alcides Escobar should keep them at or near .500. To go further, they need more from high-potentil corner infielders Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas and a return to form at the back end of the rotation (Ervin Santana, Bruce Chen, Jeremy Guthrie).
Indians … The tribe made strides on offense with the addition of Nick Swisher and Micheal Bourn and they are strong up the middle with (c) Carlos Santana, (2B) Jason Kipnis, (SS) Asdrubal Cabrera and newly acquired speedy center fielder Drew Stubbs. Questions remain at the corners and in the rotation – number-two looks like Ubaldo Jimenez (9-17, 5.4o last season).
Twins … The Twins’ off-season moves appear good for the future, but the outlook for 2013 is not as bright. A revamped pitching staff looks to include acquisitions Vance Worley, and Mike Pelfrey – both coming off surgery – as is holdover Scott Diamond, the Twins’ best 2012 starter. Could be a lot of work for a solid bullpen, led by closer Glen Perkins. There is some potential in the lineup with former MVPs Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer, slugging outfielder Josh Willingham and steady Ryan Doumit. Still, there are questions in the infield and center field (where the Twins traded away Denard Span and Ben Revere). But there is hope on the horizon, with prospects like pitchers Trevor May, Alex Meyer and Kyle Gibson (who could make the 2013 rotation) and infielder Miguel Sano in the wings.
Wild Cards: Rangers and Rays.
AL Champion: Tigers … Verlander and Scherzer provide the edge, as two offensive juggernauts (Angels/Tigers) face off.
Coming soon … a look at the NL.
