Another month in and it’s time for BBRT to again review some 2013 MLB surprises and disappointments. A couple of these are, of course, repetitive – as some surprises (the Pirates) appear poised to stay the course and a few disappointments (the Blue Jays) continue to flounder. BBRT won’t touch on all the surprises, but here’s an overview of a few things that have caught my attention through July.
NL East
Braves enjoying big lead.
Braves’ big lead in the East. It’s a bit of surprise that the Braves are walking away with the Division – an 11-game lead as we go into the dog days (of August). But it’s not because the Braves are surprisingly good, it’s because the rest of the division, including the division favorites – the Washington Nationals – are surprisingly bad. In fact, the second place Nationals end August four games under .500. Overall, the Braves stand 18 games over .500, while the rest of the division is 34 games under.
Nationals’ offense. For the preseason favorite Nationals, the culprit is a disappointing offense, which has outscored only Miami in the NL – the Nats were fifth in the NL in runs in 2012. Lack of run support has also meant that Stephen Strasburg stands at a disappointing 5-9 in his much anticipated “no-shutdown” season, despite a 3.04 ERA. (Strasburg was 15-6, 3.16 in 2012.)
Chris Johnson. As far as the division-leading Braves (NL’s third best in NL in runs, leading in HRs) go, the biggest surprise may be 28-year-old third baseman Chris Johnson, a .289 career hitter, leading the NL in average at .342 (six homers, 37 RBI).
B.J. Upton. The Braves also have one of the division’s major disappointments in B.J. Upton (of the five-year, $75.2 million contract), who stands at .177-8-20, with seven steals, after 2012’s .246 – 28 HR – 79 RBI – 31 steal season with Tampa Bay.
NL Central
Pirates’ best record in MLB. I guess it shouldn’t be a surprise anymore that the Pirates – who last had a winning season in 1992 – continue to play very good baseball. Pittsburgh really surprised with the recent surge past the Cardinals. At 65-42 (.607), Pittsburgh closed July with the best record in MLB.
BBRT will watch the Pirates closely. On August 8 of last season, the Bucs were 16 games over .500 (63-47) – and finished the year 79-83. In 2011, the Pirates were 53-47 on July 25, and finished at 72-90. BBRT expects the Pirates to top .500 (and make the playoffs) this year, but it ain’t over ‘til it’s over in Pittsburgh.
Francisco Liriano. The Pirates are doing it with pitching and the biggest surprise there is Francisco Liriano, whom the Twins and White Sox gave up on. Liriano is leading the Pirates with 11 wins (four losses), boasts a 2.16 ERA and has rung up 100 strikeouts in 95 2/3 innings – despite not making his first start until May 11. This is the same (well, not really) Liriano whose ERA has been north of 5.00 in three of the past four seasons (34-45 record since 2009).
Ed Mujica, Jean Segura, Carlos Gomez Ryan Braun. A few other surprises in the Division: The Cardinals’ 29-year-old unexpected closer Ed Mujica (with 2 saves in his previous seven seasons) has 30 saves and a 2.01 ERA; the hitting of the Brewers’ 23-year-old shortstop Jean Segura (.317-12-41) and outfielder Carlos Gomez (.301-17-52, despite a seven-season career average of .255); and Ryan Braun’s suspension (Nah, we all saw that coming).
NL West
Puig boosting Dodgers.
Dodgers’ resurgence. The surprise in the NL West is that the Dodgers are no longer one of MLB major disappointments – thanks in great part to the call up of 22-year-old outfielder Yasiel Puig (.364-10-23, with 36 runs in 50 games); the return of veteran shortstop Hanley Ramirez (.374-11-35, with 36 runs in 51 games) and the resurgence of Zack Greinke (3-1, 2.61 in July). LA, by playing .760 ball in July (19-6), not only climbed back into the race, but went from last place at the end of June to first place at the end of July.
Disappointing reigning World Series winners. The West’s major disappointment is the last-place Giants (2012 World Series winners in a sweep over the Tigers). Pitching, supposedly a San Francisco strength, has been disappointing – 12th in the NL in ERA, despite standing second in strikeouts.Matt Cain has, perhaps, fallen the shortest of expectations, standing at 6-6, 4.79 – after 2012’s 16-5, 2.79. His 2013 ERA is more than a full fun higher than his career (nine season) mark of 3.39. Two-time Cy Young Award winner Ted Lincecum’s 5-11, 4.61 is an improvement over last season (10-15. 5.18), but nowhere near his previous form.
Michael Cuddyer’s bat. Michael Cuddyer continues to be another West Division surprise. The Rockies’ outfielder – a lifetime .275 hitter – posted a .329-17-62 line through July (hitting.356 at home and .304 on the road).
Paul Goldschmidt’s 86 RBI and Pat Corbin’s 12 wins. Another pleasant West Division surprise is the Diamondbacks’ first baseman Paul Goldschmidt leading the NL with 86 RBI, to go with 24 homers and a .303 average. In his third MLB season, the 25-year-old Goldschmidt continued to trend upward. Arizona lefthander Pat Corbin, in just his second MLB season, is also a surprise at 12-2, 2.24.
AL East
Boston leading the East. Boston finishing July in first place in the AL East is a bit of a surprise; most analysts predicted a third place finish behind Toronto and Tampa Bay. Boston leads the division in runs scored and is second in the AL to Detroit in that category.
Bib Papi. Big smile. Big bat.
Koji Uehara abnd David Ortiz. A couple of “veterans” are the Red Sox’ two biggest surprise. Since taking over at closer (from Andrew Bailey) in late June, thirty-eight-year-old right-hander Koji Uehara has appeared in 18 games (eight saves, two blown saves, two wins), throwing 19 1/3 innings, logging 28 strikeouts against just one walk, and allowing just one earned run. Just a year younger than Uehara, DH David Ortiz’ was boasting a .324-20-68 line as of July 31.
Yankees over .500, bullpen bearing the load. The fact that the Yankees – despite age, injuries and controversy (read A-Rod) are still over .500 (56-51) – is a surprise. The bullpen has helped keep the Yankees in the hunt (their offense ranks 12th in the AL runs scored and 14th in average and HRs – and only Hiroki Kuroda has an ERA under 4.00 among starting pitchers). The pen, led by the ageless Mariano Rivera (34 saves, 1.60 ERA) and set up man Dave Robertson (4-1, 1.83) has also gotten strong performances from Preston Clairborne, Boone Logan and Shawn Kelley.
The Blue Jays and R.A. Dickey. Toronto, the preseason division favorite, is the biggest disappointment, facing a 14-game deficit in the AL East race. The starting pitching is the biggest disappointment for Jays’ fans. Last year’s NL Cy Young winner R.A. Dickey (20-6, 2.73 for the Mets), a key off-season addition, stands at 8-11, 4.66.
Chris Davis. No longer a total surprise, but still a bit surprising is Orioles’ first baseman Chris Davis – closing out July with a .304 average, an MLB-leading 38 homers and an MLB-leading (tied with Miguel Cabrera) 99 RBI. Davis is probably all that stands between Cabrera and a Triple Crown repeat.
Wil Myers. Twenty-two-year-old Tampa Bay call up Wil Myers is also a surprise, not for how well he is doing (.331-7-27 in his first 36 games), but rather for how soon he was called up.
AL Central
Scherzer leading Tigers to top. Detroit is on top, followed by Cleveland. No surprise there – or anywhere else in the Central standings. What may be a bit of surprise is that Detroit’s power pitching (fourth-best AL ERA and a league-leading 932 strikeouts in 957 2/3 innings pitched) is not being led by preseason Cy Young favorite Justin Verlander (11-8, 3.88, 138 strikeouts in 143 2/3 innings). Max Scherzer, with two less starts than Verlander (21 vs. 23), has thrown an identical 143 2/3 innings, but surpasses Verlander in wins (leading MLB at 15-1), ERA (3.01) and strikeouts (164).
Torii Hunter. Not to be outdone by the Red Sox in terms of contribution from veterans, 38-year-old Torii Hunter continues to wield a hot bat. Hunter, has been a reliable source of offense (and defense), but did not reach .300 for the first 15 years of his MLB career, went .313-16-92 for the Angels in 2012) and stands at .316-11-53 for Detroit this year.
AL West
Oakland at top, Angels 14 out. Oakland at the top, and the free-spending Angels 14 games out and ten games under .500 constitutes a mild surprise and a major disappointment, respectively.
Hamilton and Pujols. The Angels clearly expected more from Josh Hamilton (.226-16-50) after his .285-43-128 for Texas in 2012. Same for Albert Pujols, who stands at .258-17-64.
A’s infield bats. Oakland, on the other hand is getting surprisingly positive results from its infielders: third baseman Josh Donaldson (.297-16-43); shortstop Jed Lowrie (.293-8-43) and second baseman Eric Sogard (.273-2-19).
Bartolo Colon strong at 40. On the mound, the most notable surprise is the A’s 40-year-old Bartolo Colon (14-3, 2.50).
Iwakuma and Ibanez in Seattle. Seattle’s had a couple of surprises this far. Right hander Hisashi Iwakuma is 10-4, with a solid 2.76 ERA; while 41-year-old Raul Ibanez finished July at .252-24-57, within striking distance of the record of 29 home runs in a season for a player after reaching age forty.
So, there are some BBRT observations on the season through July. Looks like a fun run to October, with plenty more surprises – and certainly a few disappointments – in store.
