Opening Day is the most hopeful and optimistic day of each year. At least for this one day, every team is a contender, every rookie a potential “phenom,” every fading veteran a potential “Comeback Player of the Year,” and every new face in the lineup or on the bench a welcome addition.
Baseball Roundtable – March 26, 2013
Opening Day is upon us and – to celebrate – BBRT would like to focus this post on thirty players (one from each team), I’ll be watching with special interest this year – as well as a few “honorable mentions” that have caught my eye. You may also find some of them interesting – and worth keeping track of during the season.
Also, for those who may have missed my pre-season predictions (and are interested), you’ll find them by clicking here – AL NL Prospect Watch
Now, some players worth a look or two (or more) in 2015. Spring Training numbers mean little, but I’ve included them to update you on how things have been going for the players on this watch list.
Arizona Diamondbacks
1B Paul Goldschmidt – Is this THE year?
Diamondbacks 1B Paul Goldschmidt is a top flight run-producer who does not get the credit he deserves – and, at 27, he may be ready for a breakout season. In 2013, he led the NL in home runs (36), RBI (125) and total bases (332), while hitting .302 and stealing 15 bases. Last season, limited to 109 games after suffering a fractured hand from a hit by pitch, he went .300-19-69, with nine steals. BBRT is looking for a career year out of the Diamondbacks’ first-sacker, who is also a plus defender. Ultimately, Goldschmidt may be headed for Jeff Bagwell-like numbers. Goldschmidt hit .293, with three home runs, in 22 Spring Training (ST) games.
Atlanta Braves
SS Andrelton Simmons – How many base hits will he steal?
If you want to watch defense, no one does it better than Braves’ shortstop Andrelton Simmons. In his first two full seasons, Simmons has captured two Gold Gloves, two Fielding Bible Awards and two Wilson Defensive Player of the Year recognitions. In the field, Simmons is well worth watching. At the plate, he’s still a bit of mystery (again worth watching). In 2013, his first full season, he hit .248, but popped 17 home runs. Last season, the average was about the same (.244), but the power dropped off (seven home runs). BBRT will be watching that defensive range, and looking to see what Simmons’ potential is at the plate (his minor league stats indicate he may end up closer to the seven home runs than the 17). Simmons hit .340, with two homers and 13 RBI, in 18 ST games
Baltimore Orioles
1B Chris Davis – Will the real Chris Davis please step into the batter’s box?
Heading into 2014, the Orioles’ Chris Davis was on an upward swing – .270, with 33 home runs and 85 RBI in 2012; .286-53-138 in 2013. Then in 2014, Davis suffered through an Adderall-use related suspension and a .196 season (173 strikeouts in 127 games). He still showed power, with 26 home runs and 72 RBI and – having now been given a therapeutic exemption for Adderall use – should get back to 30+ home run/100+ RBI performance in 2015. Hit .250-3-12 in ST.
Honorable mention: OF-1B Steve Pearce is a late bloomer who seemed to find his stroke last season (at age 31), hitting .293 with 21 homers in 102 games. His previous MLB career stats were 290 games (seven seasons), .238 average, 17 home runs. Will he continue his 2014 surge? He looked good this spring. Hit .302, with five home runs, in 17 ST games.
Boston Red Sox
RHP Clay Buchholz – Can he be the Red Sox’ top of the rotation “ace?”
The Red Sox re-armed for 2015, both in the batter’s box and on the mound (via the additions of Hanley Ramirez, Pablo Sandoval, Justin Masterson, Wade Miley, and Rick Porcello). The trade of Jon Lester last July, however, left them without a true number-one starter. That role now falls to Clay Buchholz, who has shown flashes of brilliance (17-7, 2.33 ERA in 2010 and 12-1, 1.74 in 2013), but also proven fragile (Buchholz has spent time on the Disabled List in each of the past five seasons). The Red Sox need Buchholz, coming off an 8-11, 5.34 campaign in 2014) to step up his game. Buchholz put up a 2.84 Spring Training ERA, with 22 strikeouts in 19 innings.
Chicago Cubs
RF Jorge Soler – How good is this Cuban import?
In 24 games for the Cubs, Jorge Soler – who signed a nine-year deal in June of 2012 – hit .292, with five home runs (14 extra base hits) and 20 RBI. In 2012, at the Rookie level, Soler hit .299, with five home runs, 25 RBI, 12 steals and 12 walks – in just 34 games. In 2013, he put up a .281-8-35 stat line in 55 games at the High A level. Last season, Soler played at the Rookie League, AA and AAA levels before making his late-season MLB debut with the Cubs. In his three 2014 minor league stops, Soler hit .340-15-57. Soler should be fun to watch in “The Friendly Confines” of Wrigley Field. Continued to rake in ST , posting a line of .345-4-15 in 19 games.
Honorable mention: 3B Kris Bryant hit .325 with 43 home runs and 110 RBI in two minor league stops (AA and AAA) last season – not to mention 15 steals. Then he hit .425 with nine home runs in just 40 at bats in 2015 Spring Training. He’ll start the season at AAA (some controversy there), but will be in Chicago soon. When he gets there, he’ll be well worth keeping an eye on.
Chicago White Sox
RHP Jeff Samardzija – How good will he be with the new White Sox offense to support him?
Jeff Samardzija (got to love that name on the back of a uniform), acquired in a trade with the Athletics, was a lot better in 2014 than his 7-13 record (Cubs and A’s) would indicate. He put up a nifty 2.99 ERA and struck out 202 hitters in 219 2/3 innings. Samardzija is slotted in at the number-two spot in the White Sox rotation (assuming Chris Sale returns from injury in mid-April as expected) – and he looks ready to put up a solid season. Samardzija had a rough spring giving up 20 runs (including 9 home runs) in 21 1/3 innings.
Honorable mention: LHP Carlos Rodon, drafted (first round) out of NC State last year, looks ready for the major leagues at age 22. In his first pro season, he moved from the Rookie League to High A to Triple A – posting a 2.96 ERA and 38 strikeouts in 24 1/3 innings. This spring, Rodon tossed 17 2/3 innings, going 3.06 with 12 whiffs and only five walks. Rodon will start the season at Triple A, but BBRT will be watching for his call up.
Cincinnati Reds
Closer Aroldis Chapman – Just how hard can this guy throw?
The Reds may not be going anywhere this year, but LHP Aroldis Chapman’s fastball is going to be flying past hitters once again. Acknowledged as the hardest thrower in MLB, Chapman’s fastball routinely tops 100 mph. In 2014, Chapman saved 36 games (in 38 opportunities) – and struck out 106 batters in just 54 innings. If you watch Chapman, you may not see that fastball, but you’ll probably be able to hear it. Struck out 16 in 12 ½ innings in ST.
Cleveland Indians
2B Jason Kipnis – Can he come back from injury-interrupted 2014?
Second baseman Jason Kipnis, a 2013 All Star (.284-17-84, with 30 steals), missed most of May last season (oblique strain) and fell to .240-6-41, with 22 steals. A return to health (and power plus speed) would give the Cleveland offense a boost. Hit .229 with one home run in 13 ST games.
Colorado Rockies
SS Troy Tulowitzki – Will he play 150 games?
Shortstop Troy Tulowitzki is a key cog in the Rockies’ lineup, but in the eight seasons since his first full MLB season, he’s only reached 150 games played twice (2007 and 2009). The Rockies need their Gold Glove/power hitting shortstop to stay on the field. He’s coming off hip surgery, so it’s worth watching his progress closely. Tulo did look sound in Spring Training and, if healthy, he’s a potential .300-25-100 guy. In 16 ST games, hit .381, with five home runs and 12 RBI.
Detroit Tigers
RHP Justin Verlander – Can he rebound?
With Rick Porcello (trade) and Max Scherzer (free agency) gone, there is pressure on Justin Verlander (who will start the season on the DL – his first ever DL stint) to recapture his old form. (Verlander – triceps soreness – is expected back by mid-April.) Verlander has seen his ERA increase in each of the past four seasons (from 2.40 in 2011 to 4.54 in 2014) and his strikeouts per nine-innings drop from 9.0 to 6.9 in the same time span. The Tigers need a return to form from the 2011 Cy Young winner if they are to retain the Central Division’s top spot. You can bet Tiger fans will be watching with interest. Had a 5.63 ERA, with 10 whiffs in 16 innings this ST.
Honorable mention: 1B Miguel Cabrera – Who wouldn’t like watching Cabrera do what he does best\? Crush baseballs. The 2012 Triple Crown winner and two-time MVP hit .345, with three home runs in 11 ST games.
Houston Astros
2B Jose Altuve – Is the 5’ 5” spark plug for real?
Jose Altuve, currently MLB’s shortest player, is fun to watch. He puts the bat on the ball – often. In 2014, the 24-year-old led the AL in hits (225), batting average (.341) and stolen bases (56). If that’s not a show worth watching, what is? Hit .333 in 16 ST games.
Kansas City Royals
RF Alex Rios – Can he put some pop back in his swing?
Free-agent signee Alex Rios was acquired to help offset the departures of Nori Aoki and Billy Butler. Rios brings a steady bat (.280 last season, .278 career) and speed (17 steals in 2014, 244 in eleven MLB seasons). Notably, that combination was part of the Royals’ formula for success in 2014 – the team finished second in the AL in batting average and first in all of MLB in stolen bases (153, the only team to steal 150 bases.) They did, however, lack power, hitting only 95 home runs – the major’s lowest total. Rios hit only four round trippers a year ago, but hit between 15 and 25 home runs every season from 2006 to 2013. BBRT will be watching to see if Rios can recapture his power stroke. Hit .308, with three homers, in 20 ST games.
Honorable mention: With James Shields gone (free agency) RHP Yordano Ventura – 14-10, 3.20 in his first full season (2014) – will be expected to step into the number-one slot in the rotation. With his high 90s fastball, the 23-year-old looks ready to step up. Ventura produced a 4.50 ERA, with 16 whiffs in 18 ST innings.
Los Angeles Angels
CF Mike Trout – Another MVP?
Of course, BBRT will be watching Angels’ CF Mike Trout. What baseball fan wouldn’t? Just 23-years-old, with three full MLB seasons on the books, Trout has one AL MVP Award (two second-place finishes), a Rookie of the Year Award, and has led the AL in runs three times and RBI and stolen bases once each. He also has a .305 career average, with 98 homers. Just have to watch to see what’s next from the future HOFer. Hit .441, with five homers, in 22 ST games.
Los Angeles Dodgers
LHP Clayton Kershaw – What’s the record for most Cy Young Awards again?
Who wouldn’t want to watch Clayton Kershaw deal from the mound? Over the past four seasons, he’s 72-26, with a 2.33 ERA – leading the league in ERA four times, wins twice and strikeouts twice, while also earning three Cy Young Awards and one MVP Award. Hey, when Kershaw pitches, tune in. This ST, put up a 1.61 ERA, with 22 strikeouts in 22 1/3 innings.
Honorable mention: OF Joc Pederson was the Pacific Coast League’s 2014 Most Valuable player – hitting .303 with 33 home runs, 106 runs, 78 RBI, 30 steals and, importantly, 100 walks (in 121 games). Despite the fact that Pederson hit .143, with 11 whiffs in 28 at bats for the Dodgers last September, BBRT thinks he’ll have a season worth watching as a Dodgers’ rookie in 2015. Hit .338-6-13 in 26 ST games.
Miami Marlins
RF Giancarlo Stanton – Does anyone hit the ball farther – more consistently – than Stanton?
Giancarlo Stanton led the NL with 37 home runs last season, while hitting .288 with 105 RBI. According to ESPN’s Home Run Tracker, his home runs averaged 415.3 feet, second in MLB only to Matt Holliday (418.3 feet), who hit 17 fewer homers. Stanton also hit three of the eight longest 2014 home runs – and, of the fifty 2014 MLB home runs of at least 450 feet, Stanton had seven. (No one else had more than two.) Want to see long home runs, watch Giancarlo Stanton whenever you get the chance. Hit .313-4-14 in 19 ST games.
Milwaukee Brewers
RF Ryan Braun – Did thumb surgery do the trick?
No doubt the Brewers’ RF Ryan Braun has had problems in a career that started with a Rookie of the Year Award (2007), followed by five straight All Star selections – and the NL MVP Award in 20ll. Then there was a suspension in 2013 and injury issues in 2014.
When healthy, Braun has shown the ability to deliver speed and power (in 2012, he hit .319, with 41 home runs, 112 RBI and 30 steals). He appears healthy again and BBRT is anxious to see if he comes back strong. Looked good with a .395 average and three home runs in 16 ST games.
Minnesota Twins
1B Joe Mauer – More batting titles in the future?
Twins’ 1B Joe Mauer, a three-time AL batting champion with a .319 career (11 seasons) batting average, hit only .277 in 2014. The 2009 AL MVP spent time on the disabled list in three of the past four seasons. The Twins need a healthy and hitting Mauer and BBRT expects to see Mauer at or near his career average in 2015. Hit .273 this ST.
New York Mets
RHP Matt Harvey – Is he ready fully recovered from Tommy John surgery?
Nearly 18 months after Tommy John surgery, Met’s starter Matt Harvey looks ready to step up and be the Mets’ ace. Remember, in 2013, Harvey went 9-5, 2.27 with 191 strikeouts (just 31 walks) in 178 1/3 innings. If he’s back, he’ll be fun to watch –unless you’re in the batter’s box. This ST, Harvey logged a 1.19 ERA with 21 strikeouts in 22 2/3 innings pitched.
New York Yankees
Closer Dellin Betances – Can he replace, not Mariano Rivera, but David Robertson?
In 2014, David Robertson was charged with replacing retired Yankee Mariano Rivera as closer and did so admirably, saving 39 games, with a 3.06 ERA and 96 strikeouts in 64 1/3 innings. Robertson is now gone (free agency) and 26-year-old Dellin Betances moves into the NY closer’s role. Last season, Betances threw 90 innings (70 appearances), with a 1.40 ERA and 135 strikeouts (versus just 24 walks). He looks ready. Struck out nine in 8 1/3 ST innings, with a 5.40 ERA.
Oakland Athletics
3B Brett Lawrie – Would YOU like to replace Josh Donaldson?
3B Brett Lawrie (acquired in a trade with the Blue Jays) is being asked to replace arguably the A’s best player for the past two seasons – Josh Donaldson (traded to the Blue Jays). Donaldson – 53 homers, 191 RBI in 2013/2014 – will be a tough act to follow. Lawrie, who spent time on the Disabled List last year, did hit 12 home runs and drive in 38 in just 70 games. Hit .245-4-11 in 19 ST games.
Philadelphia Phillies
1B Ryan Howard – What does the former Rookie of the Year and NL MVP have left in the tank?
Ryan Howard won the 2005 NL Rookie of the Year Award, hitting .288, with 22 home runs and 63 RBI in just 88 games. He followed up with a .313-58-149 season and an MVP Award in 2006 – and kept right on hitting. From 2006 through 2011, Howard averaged just over 44 home runs and 113 RBI per season. However, time and injuries (knee and Achilles tendon) appear to have caught up with the Phillies’ slugger. In 2012 and 2013, he played a total of 151 games and last season, his stat line (in 153 games) was .223-23-95. Phillies’ fans will be watching to see if the 35-year-old can turn this around. Hit .176-3-10 in 26 games this ST.
Pittsburgh Pirates
CF Andrew McCutchen – Can he help drive the Pirates to the post season AGAIN?
Pirates CF Andrew McCutchen is well worth watching. He’s a true five-tool player – a Gold Glove winner and the 2013 NL MVP (he’s finished in the top three in the NL MVP voting each of the past three years). Last season “Cutch” went .314-25-83, with 18 steals. He’s likely to do even better in 2015. Hit .375 in 11 ST games.
Saint Louis Cardinals
RF Jason Heyward – More highlight reels in his future?
Although a lot of what happens in Saint Louis depends on the three “Matts” – Adams, Carpenter and Holliday – BBRT has special interest in the Redbirds’ new right fielder Jason Heyward (acquired in a trade with the Braves). We’re likely to see the two-time Gold Glover in plenty of defensive highlight videos and – at just 25-years-old – there is plenty of time to see his offensive skills develop further. (Heyward went .271-11-56, with 20 steals a year ago, but has shown 20-homer/20-steal potential.) Hit .300, with one home run, in 17 ST games.
San Diego Padres
The entire outfield – Has San Diego finally found its offense?
Rather than watch just one Padres’ player, BBRT is interested in San Diego’s entirely new – and much more offensively potent – outfield: Justin Upton (trade with Braves); Will Myers (trade with Rays); and Matt Kemp (trade with Dodgers). If these three live up to their potential at the plate, the San Diego offense could be vastly improved. Consider that Upton went .279-29-103 last season; Kemp put up a .287-25-89 line and has a .324-39-126 season under his belt (2011); and 2013 Rookie of the Year Myers is still considered to have considerable upside at age 24. This outfield may change San Diego’s approach to the game. This ST, Myers hit .259 with three homers; Kemp hit .370 with four round trippers; and Upton hit .314 with three long balls.
San Francisco Giants
LHP Madison Bumgarner – What does he do for an encore?
The post-season heroics of Madison Bumgarner should be no surprise, he also went 18-10, 2.98 with 219 strikeouts in 217 1/3 innings pitched during the 2014 regular season. The question is, did the 2014 workload (he also threw 50+ posts season inning) take anything out of him. Watch for the answer. He’s only 25, so BBRT anticipates, he’ll do just fine – and be among the top five in 2015 Cy Young voting. Had a 4.91 ERA with 18 strikeouts in 18 1/3 innings this ST.
Seattle Mariners
RHP Felix Hernandez – Is it time for another Cy Young Award?
How good is Felix Hernandez? The five-time All Star won the 2010 Cy Young Award with a 13-12 record. Now that’s respect. (He did have a league-low 2.27 ERA). The Mariners have worked to improve their offense (adding Nelson Cruz and his 40 home runs, for example) and that should mean even more victories for King Felix (15-6, 2.14, with 248 strikeouts in 236 innings pitched in 2014). This Spring Training, Hernandez had a 10.2 ERA, with eight strikeouts in 12 1/3 innings.
Honorable mention: RHP Taijuan Walker, a 2010 first-round draft pick, has been the talk of Spring Training for the Mariners – and may soon be the “talk of the town” in Seattle. Struck out 26 in 27 ST innings, with a sparkling 0.67 ERA.
Tampa Bay Rays
OF Steven Souza – Is he ready?
Acquired from the Washington Nationals, Steven Souza was the International League (AAA) Rookie of the Year and MVP in 2014 – hitting .350, with 18 home runs, 75 RBI and 26 steals in 96 games with Syracuse. Souza was a 2007 third-round draft pick as an 18-year-old. It took the 6’ 4”, 225-pound right-handed hitter a few seasons to adjust (he hit just .227 over his first five minor league seasons). In 2012, Souza began to turn it on – hitting.297-23-85, with 14 steals in 97 games at A and High A. In 2013, he proved 2012 was no fluke, going .297-15-46 with 22 steals at two levels (Rookie and AA). Last season, Souza hit .345-18-99 with 28 steals, while working has way from A to AA to AAA. Souza hit only .130 in a couple of major league call-ups (21 games), but he looks like another player well worth watching (at the major league level) this season. Hit .130 in 19 ST games.
Texas Rangers
1B Prince Fielder – Is he healthy, is he back?
The Rangers expected 1B/DH Prince Fielder to lead their offense when they acquired him before the 2014 season. After all, the big guy had averaged 36 home runs and 108 RBI over the previous seven seasons. A neck injury limited Fielder to 42 games (three homers, 16 RBI) in 2014. BBRT (and the Lone Star State) will be watching to see how Fielder rebounds from neck surgery. Hit .341-1-7 in 17 ST games.
Toronto Blue Jays
LHP Daniel Norris – Was he really living in a van down by the Wal-Mart?
How can you not want to watch a guy with eye-popping stuff and a two-million-dollar signing bonus, who chooses to live (during Spring Training) in a Volkswagen van behind a Wal-Mart. Norris will be in the Jay’s starting rotation. Look out! Logged a 2.93 ST ERA, with 30 strikeouts in 27 2/3 innings.
Washington Nationals
The entire starting rotation – How good (great) can they be?
Kind of a cop out, but you really have to watch that entire starting rotation – anyone in it could be a Cy Young winner. Here they are with their 2014 stats: Max Scherzer (18-5, 3.15); Stephen Strasburg 14-11, 3.14); Jordan Zimmerman (14-5, 2.66); Doug Fister (16-6, 2.41); Gio Gonzalez (10-10, 3.57). Their ST ERAs were: Scherzer (1.35); Gonzalez (2.79); Zimmerman (3.80); Strasburg (4.20); Fister (5.96).
Honorable mention: People keep waiting for Bryce Harper to become the NL’s Mike Trout. Well, keep an eye on him. Remember, he’s only 22-years-old. This could be the year. Hit .267-3-8 in 19 ST games.
