Spring Training grows ever closer and BBRT continues to identify players to watch in the weeks and months ahead. We’ve already looked at some of MLB’s to prospects – click here for that post. Now, it’s time to examine some potential candidates for Comeback Player of the Year. I’ve chosen to highlight one player in each division, based on a combination of how important a rebound by each player could be to his team and how well-positioned each player appears to be to achieve that level of “comeback.”
NATIONAL LEAGUE
East
Anthony Rendon, 3B. Washington Nationals
Anthony Rendon hit his stride with the Nationals in 2014. That season, Rendon played in 153 games, hitting .287, with 21 home runs, 83 RBI, 17 stolen bases (in 20 attempts) and a league-leading 111 runs scored. This performance earned Rendon a fifth-place finish in the MVP balloting. Big things were expected from Rendon as the Nationals went into the 2015 season favored to take the NL East title.
Unfortunately, Rendon suffered knee, quad and oblique injuries – and played in just 80 games (often at less than 100 percent). His final numbers were .264-5-25. Rendon is just 26-years-old, so the Nationals are expecting a strong comeback. They need his right-handed bat in the lineup if they are going to unseat the Mets atop the East Division. With Bryce Harper likely to follow Rendon in the Nats’ lineup, a solid season seems very likely.
Central
Adam Wainwright. RHP, Saint Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals, having lost starting pitchers John Lackey (free agency, Mets) and Lance Lynn (Tommy John surgery), need Adam Wainwright to make a full recovery from last April’s Achilles Tendon tear and resume his role at the top of the rotation. (Note: Lackey and Lynn represented a combined 25 wins, 64 starts and 393 innings pitched.) Fortunately, Wainwright looks like a solid candidate for the Comeback Player of the Year Award.
Wainwright is 34-year-old, which raises some flags, but the fact that Wainwright came back early and strong indicates he should return to form in 2016. Last season, Wainwright returned to the mound for three regular-season relief appearances (late September/early October) and three post-season relief appearances. In those outings, he went 8 1/3 innings, giving up just five hits and two earned runs, while fanning eight. A healthy Wainwright should be a Cy Young Award candidate. In 2013-14 he finished second and third in the CYA balloting, while running up a combined 39-18 record, with a 2.67 ERA and 398 strikeouts in 468 2/3 innings.
West
Hunter Pence, RF, San Francisco Giants
Going into 2015 Spring Training, Hunter Pence was among the most durable players in the major leagues – having led the NL in games played (162) in 2013 and 2014, and having played in at least 154 games in each of the seven previous seasons. In 2014, he put up a .277-20-74 line, with 13 steals and 106 runs scored. Pence suffered a broken arm in Spring Training (hit by pitch) and, after his return from that setback, suffered wrist injury and oblique injuries. Even playing through pain, Pence got in only 52 games, going .275-9-40, with four steals.
While not the kind of player who can carry a team on his own, Pence is a solid performer and professional hitter (three-time All Star) whose presence in the middle of the lineup will be needed if the Giants are to compete with the Dodgers and Diamondbacks in the NL West. Hunter will turn 33 shortly after the season opens and – given his history – a comeback season should be no problem.
A few others who may be in the NL Comeback Player mix: Freddie Freeman, 1B, Braves; Jose Fernandez, RHP, Marlins; Yasiel Puig, RF, Dodgers.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
East
Marcus Stroman, RHP. Toronto Blue Jays
Marcus Stroman burst onto the MLB scene in 2014, making his first appearance (in relief) in early May. By season’s end, he had made 26 appearances (20 starts), going 11-6, 3.65 with 111 K’s in 130 2/3 innings. The young Blue Jay (23-years-old when he made his MLB debut) may not be large in stature (5’8”, 180-lbs.), but he stood tall on the mound.
The 2015 season seemed to hold great promise, but Stroman’s progress was quickly derailed. A Spring Training knee injury was projected to put him out for the season. Stroman, however, surprised the Jays and was back on the mound in mid-September, going 4-0, 1.67 down the stretch and – perhaps more important – pitching 27 innings in four starts. Stroman followed up by going 1-0, 4.19 in three post-season starts.
With southpaw ace David Price now gone (free agency, Red Sox), the Blue Jays need Stroman to step into the number-one rotation slot. BBRT expects he will do just fine in that role. Since he is coming off an injury-shortened year, he qualifies as a Comeback Player of the Year candidate.
Note: If you don’t think Stroman was “down” enough to make an award-winning comeback, a solid second choice would be Red Sox’ 3B Pablo Sandoval, who went .245-10-47 (all full-season career lows) after signing a five-year $95 million deal with Boston. If Sandoval reports in shape and ready for the challenge, his bat could help the Red Sox (who added David Price and Craig Kimbrel in the off season) move back into relevance in the AL East.
Central
Victor Martinez, DH, Detroit Tigers
The Detroit Tigers’ fall from grace was pretty rapid- from four consecutive first-place finishes in the Central Division (2011-14) to last place (20 ½ games out) in 2015. They took some solid steps to right the ship, adding RHP Jordan Zimmerman, RHP/closer Francisco Rodriguez, LF Justin Upton and CF Cameron Maybin (among others). With all those moves, it’s likely Detroit will still need a rebound from DH Victor Martinez if they are going to go from “worst-to-first.” In 2015, a troublesome knee hampered Martinez’ performance. Not only did he appear in just 120 games (he had topped 150 in each of the previous two season), but the career .302 hitter fell from 2014’s .335-32-103 to .245-11-65. The Tigers clearly need a healthy Martinez as they work to turn things around in 2016.
West
Yu Darvish, RHP, Texas Rangers
Rangers’ top-of-the-rotation ace Yu Darvish underwent Tommy John surgery last season (and didn’t pitch at all). He is slated to be ready to take the mound in mid-May this season. With the Rangers facing a challenge from the aggressive and maturing Houston Astros, that May return could be just the lift Texas needs to hold off Houston. What kind of performance (rebound) might Texas expect as Darvish comes off his surgery? In three MLB seasons, Darvish is 39-25, 3.27 – with 680 strikeouts in just 545 1/3 innings pitched.
Only 28-years-old, Darvish is a good candidate for the kind of rebound that could earn him Comeback Player of the Year honors – and help his Rangers hold on to the West Division title.
A few others who may be in the AL Comeback Player of the Year Mix: Pablo Sandoval, 3B, Red Sox; Hanley Ramirez, 1B, Red Sox; Matt Weiters, C, Orioles; Josh Hamilton, LF Rangers.
More Detail? For BBRT’S 2016 National League Predictions (Division Races and Awards), click here. For 2016 AL Predictions, click here.
Fan of baseball trivia? BBRT has two 99 question (Ballpark Tours tested) trivia quizzes. For BBRT’s 99 favorite questions, click here. For a second 99, click here.
Ballpark Tours great 2016 excursion (10 days, 10 games, 7 cities), outlined here.
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Member: Society for Americana Baseball Research (SABR); The Baseball Reliquary; Baseball Bloggers Alliance.
