Baseball Roundtable’s 2019 unofficial fan Hall of Fame balloting is complete – and, in this post, I’d like to share the results and a few early observations. (I will post a more detailed comparison of the Baseball Writers Association of America – BBWAA – official balloting and the BBRT fan voting once the official results are announced on January 22). Note: This year’s fan ballot results include 192 ballots (218 were cast, but 26 were eliminated, primarily on one of two grounds; they either included more than the allotted ten votes or represented multiple ballots from the same individual.
Here are some early notes. When BBRT ran its first fan ballot last year, I fully expected the fans to be less demanding of candidates than the BBWAA. Oops! A swing and a miss! Last year, the writers voted in Chipper Jones (97.2 percent); Vlad Guerrero (92.9 percent); Jim Thome (81.8 percent); and Trevor Hoffman (79.9 percent). While the BBRT fan vote put the same four players at the top, only two got the required 75 percent – Chipper Jones (90.0 percent and Jim Thome (75.9 percent). Vlad Guerrero and Trevor Hoffman got 71.7 percent and 57.5 percent, respectively.
2019 FAN BALLOT – Mariano Rivera and Edgar Martinez Garner 75 Percent-plus
Only two players got the required 75 percent support in the 2019 BBRT fan ballot: Mariano Rivera (86.5 percent) and Edgar Martinez (75.5 percent). A coincidence of interest to BBRT, both were at positions subject to previous negative bias in HOF voting and both so eloquently (through their performance) defined those positions that Major League Baseball now has awards named after them: The Mariano Rivera American League Reliever of the Year Award and The Edgar Martinez Outstanding Designated Hitter Award.
In the publicly announced BBWAA balloting (171 ballots as of January 14/41.5 percent of eligible voters), Rivera and Martinez received even stronger support than in the BBRT fan ballot, with Rivera at 100 percent and Martinez at 90.1 percent. Perhaps even more notable, in the BBWAA ballots made public through January 14, Roy Halladay (94.2 percent) and Mike Mussina (81.3 percent) were also above 75 percent mark. Should those results hold, we would again see four candidate getting the needed 75 percent support from the BBWAA and just two receiving three-fourths of the fan vote. I do anticipate percentages to slip a bit as final BBWAA vote totals are announced – based on an expectation that voters who voted for the fewest candidates at the least likely to have publicly released their ballots. Of considerable interest will be whether Rivera becomes the first unanimous electee.
Note: You can view an update total of BBWAA publicly revealed ballot at bbhoftracker.com
In the Baseball Roundtable 2019 Hall of Fame Fan Ballot, participants voted for an average of 7.7 players per ballot. In the publicly announced BBWAA official balloting (through January 14), voters selected 8.7 players per ballot. Those numbers mirror full 2018 voting, when BBRT ballots showed 7.9 players per voter, while the BBWAA voters selected 8.5 per ballot.
PED FORGIVENESS SLOW IN COMING FROM FANS
Comparing BBWAA balloting (again publicly released ballots through January 14), fans seem less forgiving then the writers when it comes to PED suspicions. For example, in the fan ballot, Roger Clemens came in at 44.8 percent; Barry Bonds at 43.2 percent; and Sammy Sosa at 8.9 percent. Through January 14, the publicly announced BBWAA total for those three were 73.1 percent, 72.5 percent and 13.5 percent, respectively. Also, of note; fan vote percentages were down from 2018 for all three; while BBWAA percentages were up from 2018 finals for all three.
BIGGEST GAINERS AND LOSERS IN BBRT FAN BALLOT
Here’s a look at the biggest gainers and losers in the BBRT 2019 Fan Ballot. BBRT will look at official BBWAA ballot gainers and losers when the final tallies are in.
Largest Gains
Larry Walker … +18.7 (28.7% to 47.4%)
Edgar Martinez … +18 .0 (57.5 to 75.5)
Mike Mussina … +13.0 (44.8 to 57.8)
Fred McGriff … +11.6 (37.9 to 49.5)
Jeff Kent … +10.8 (24.1 to 34.9)
Biggest Losses
Curt Schilling … -8.0 (35.6 to 27.6)
Roger Clemens … -4.2 (49.0 to 44.8)
Sammy Sosa … -4.1 (13.0 to 8.9)
Barry Bonds … -3.5 (46.7 to 43.2)
BIGGEST HOF SNUBS
The BBRT Fan Ballot also asked for comments on which players represent the most significant Hall of Fame Snubs. Here are the leaders (in terms of mentions.
Barry Bonds – 11 mentions
Roger Clemens – 8
Jim Kaat – 7
Fred McGriff – 4
Dale Murphy 4
Three each: Jeff Kent; Edgar Martinez; Mike Mussina; Ted Simmons; Sammy Sosa.
There will be more to come when the official BBWAA results are released. In the meantime, here’s how BBRT would have voted if I had a ballot. (I would select the maximum ten players.)
——IF I HAD A BALLOT – BBRT’S WISHFUL THINKING——
Mariano Rivera – (RHP/Closer, 1995-2013) … First year on the ballot.
The question is not whether Rivera is a first-ballot Hall of Famer, it’s will he be the first-ever unanimous electee. Best guess, there will be at least one BBWAA holdout. He is at the top of the 2019 HOF class, no matter how you look at it.
Nineteen years with the Yankees and an MLB-best 652 career saves. Rivera was an All-star in 13 seasons, led the AL in games saved three times and finished in the top three in Cy Young voting four times. He saved 30 or more games in a season 15 times (including nine seasons of 40 or more saves, two of fifty or more) and put up an overall won-lost record of 80-52, with a 2.21 earned run average in 1,114 games. In 11 of his 19 seasons, Rivera’s earned run average was under 2.00 – which included a four-season span (2003-06), in which he saved 170 games, won 21 (13 losses) and put up a 1.69 ERA in 302 2/3 innings pitched. In his final season – at age 43 – Rivera went 6-2, with a 2.11 ERA and 44 saves. Rivera was the American League Rolaids Relief Man of the Year in five seasons and the MLB Delivery Man of the Year in three campaigns.
In 2014, MLB established the Mariano Rivera AL Reliever of the Year Award (and the Trevor Hoffman NL Reliever of the Year recognition) – replacing the MLB Delivery Man of the Year Award.
Rivera was also an elite performer in the clutch. In 96 post-season appearances, he went 8-1, with 42 saves and a minuscule 0.70 ERA. Rivera was named the World Series MVP in 1999 and the ALCS MVP in 2003. In 58 of his 96 post-season appearances, Rivera pitched more than one inning. In the 2003 post-season, he appeared in eight games, pitching 16 innings (more than one frame in seven of the eight appearances), earning a win and five saves, giving up just one earned run (0.56 ERA).
Mariano Rivera’s Best Season: Lots to choose from here – like 43 saves and a 1.38 ERA in 2005; or 44 saves and a 1.91 ERA in 2011 (at age 41). BBRT will go with 2004, when Rivera saved a career-high 53 games, won four (lost two) and posted a 1.94 ERA
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Edgar Martinez – (Designated Hitter/Third Base, 1987-2004) … Tenth/Final year on the ballot, 70.4 percent on the BBWAA ballot in 2018.
Photo by clare_and_ben
We’ve seen some prejudice against designated hitters in past voting, but Edgar Martinez has made progress against that negative bias – getting 70.4 percent pf the vote last season, a healthy increase from 58.6 percent in 2017. Martinez’ vote percentage has increased every year since 2015. The fact that this is his final year on the ballot should provide that final push. In publicly released BBWAA ballots through January 14, he stands at 90.1 percent. This will be the year. (Side note: Martinez came in at 75.5 percent on the BBRT fan ballot.)
Martinez clearly, and expertly, defined the DH role. In an 18-season MLB career (all with the Mariners), Martinez was named to seven All Star teams; won a pair of batting titles (hitting a high of .356 in 1995); earned five Silver Slugger Awards; topped 100 RBI in six seasons (leading the league with 145 in 2000); and scored 100 or more runs five times (leading the league with 121 in 1995). He finished his career with a .312 average; 2,247 hits; 1,219 runs; 1,261 RBI; 309 home runs; and 514 doubles.
Martinez hit .571 in the 1995 AL Championship Series (12-for-21), with two home runs, six walks and 10 RBI in five games. In 34 post-season games, he hit .266, with eight home runs and 24 RBI.
In 2004, MLB renamed the Outstanding Designated Hitter Award “The Edgar Martinez Outstanding Designated Hitter Award.” That says a lot, right there.
Edgar Martinez’ Best Season: One of two here, In 1995, Martinez led the league in batting average (.356), runs scored (121) and doubles (52), adding 29 home runs and 113 RBI. In 2005, Martinez put up a .324 average, 37 home runs, a league-leading 145 RBI and 100 runs scored.
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Mike Mussina – (RHP/Starter, 1991-2008) – Sixth year on the ballot 63.5 percent on the BBWAA 2018 ballot.
Photo by Willie Zhang
In 2015, BBRT speculated that the presence newcomers Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez and John Smoltz on the Hall of Fame ballot would dampen the chances of all other pitchers – including Mike Mussina – for election. This year, I speculated that the addition of Roy Halladay to the ballot would help Mussina. Basically, I anticipated that Halladay would generate considerable support and that, as BBWAA voters considered a ballot for Halladay (who has 203 wins), Mussina’s 270 victories will carry additional weight. That seems to be coming to pass, with Halladay standing at 94.2 percent through January 14 and Mussina at 81.3 percent.
Since his first-ballot percentage of 20.3 percent in 2014, Mussina’s totals have climbed each year – 24.6 percent in 2015; 43.0 percent in 2016; 51.5 percent in 2017; and 63.5 percent in 2018. He would have had BBRT’s vote in each of those years – and in 2019.
Mussina built a 270-153 record, with a career 3.68 ERA and 2,813 strikeouts over 18 seasons. While only once a 20-game winner (in his final season, at age 39), Mussina won 18 or 19 games five times, leading the AL with 19 wins in 1995. In his first three full seasons in the major leagues (1992-94), Mussina put up a .700 or better winning percentage each year (.783, .700, .762). His record over that span – for the Orioles – was 48-16.
Mussina was a five-time All Star and a seven-time Gold Glove winner. He recorded a .650 or better winning percentage in nine seasons, with a career (and league-leading) high of .783 in 1992. Mussina ranks among the top 25 pitchers all-time in strikeouts (20th) and strikeout-to-walk ratio (24th among pitchers with 1,000 or more innings pitched). He’s also in the top fifty all-time in games started, wins and winning percentage. While the lack of a Cy Young Award on his resume may hurt him, he finished his career 117 games over .500 – and history says 100 or more wins than losses should be good for a ticket to the Hall. Mussina pitched for the Orioles (1991-2000) and Yankees (2000-2008).
On September 2, 2001, Mike Mussina – pitching for the Yankees – retired the first 26 Red Sox batters he faced and came with one strike of a perfect game. Mussina had a 1-2 count on pinch-hitter Carl Everett before Everett blooped a single to left-center. Mussina ended up with a 1-0, one-hit shutout victory.
Mussina appeared in 23 post-season games, with a 7-8 record and a 3.42 ERA.
Mike Mussina’s Best Season: Mussina may have saved his best for last. In his final season (as a Yankee), at age 39, he recorded his first twenty-win campaign. That year, Mussina went 20-9, 3.37 – and proved his durability by leading the AL in starts with 34, logging his 11th season of 200 or more innings pitched and earning his seventh Gold Glove
Mussina deserves a spot in Cooperstown and I expect it will be a VERY close call – but it looks like he will make it this year.
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Roy Halladay – (RHP/Starter, 1998-2013) … First year on the ballot.
Photo by Keith Allison
Roy Halladay had one of the best-ever ten-year runs on the mound (2002-2011). In those ten seasons, he went 170-75, with a 2.97 earned run average and 1,699 strikeouts in 2,194 2/3 innings. He was an All Star eight times during that span and won a pair of Cy Young Awards (2003 and 2010). Halladay also recorded three seasons of 20 or more wins during those ten seasons, leading his league twice. Between 2002 and 2011, he also led his league in complete games seven times, shutouts four times and innings pitched four times.
And, there is more to support Halladay’s candidacy. On May 10, 2010, he pitched a perfect game – striking out 11 – as his Phillies topped the Marlins 1-0 in Miami. Then, on October 6, 2010, Halladay tossed a no-hitter against the Reds in Game One of the National League Division Series – walking one and fanning eight as the Phillies won 4-0. It was just the second no-hitter in post-season history.
Halladay would get BBRT’s vote and (through January 14) is running at just over 90 percent among publicly revealed BBWAA ballots. If there is a negative in his candidacy it’s that, in the six seasons outside his ten-year run of excellence, Halladay was 33-26, 5.03. Halladay finished his career at 203-105, 3.38 with 2,117 strikeouts in 2,749 1/3 innings pitched. That appears to be enough for BBWAA voters. Halladay pitched for the Blue Jays (1998-2009) and Phillies (2010-13).
Roy Halladay is one of just six pitchers to win the Cy Young Award in both the American and National Leagues.
Roy Halladay’s Best Season: In his 2010 Cy Young Award season – after being traded from the Blue Jays to the Phillies in December of 2009 – Halladay led the NL in wins (21-10); complete games (nine), shutouts (four), and innings pitched (250 2/3), while putting up a 2.35 ERA (third in the league), fanning 219 batters (second in the NL) and walking just 30. His 7.3 strikeouts to walks ratio was the NL’s best.
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Larry Walker – (Outfield, 1989-2005) … Ninth year on the ballot, 34.1 percent from the BBWAA last year.
Larry Walker played for the Expos (1989-1994), Rockies (1995-2004) and Cardinals (2004-2005). Given BBRT’s admiration for “lumber AND leather,” Walker’s combination of three batting titles, three Silver Slugger Awards and seven Gold Gloves earns him my vote.
Walker played 17 MLB seasons and retired with 2,160 hits, a .313 average and three batting titles. Between 1997 and 2001, he hit .350 or better in four of five seasons. The five-time All Star (and 1997 NL MVP) hit 383 home runs (a high of 49 in 1997) and stole 230 bases (a high of 33 in 1997). Walker hit just .230 in 28 post-season games, but did rack up seven home runs, 15 RBI and sixteen walks in those contests. Walker’s ten seasons in hitter-friendly Colorado may be hurting his vote totals – he hit .383 for his career in Coors, .271 elsewhere. Still, BBRT believes if you add his Gold Glove defense to his productive bat, you have a Hall of Famer. I’m also not much for punishing a player for taking full advantage of his home-field conditions.
Walker has shown progress this voting cycle, going from 34.1 percent among BBWAA voters in 2018 to 66.5 percent on publicly revealed BBWAA ballots (through January 14). He also made a 19-point leap on the BBRT fan ballot. He has just one more year on the ballot, so a big move this year is crucial.
In 1997, Larry Walker led the NL with 409 total bases – the 18th highest single-season total all-time. (There have been only 29 seasons of 400 or more total bases in MLB history).
Larry Walker’s Best Season: In his 1997 NL MVP year (Rockies), Walker hit .366, with a league-leading 49 home runs. He drove in 130 runs, scored 143, rapped 46 doubles, led the league in total bases at 409, topped the league in slugging percentage at .720 and even threw in 33 stolen bases and a Gold Glove. That’s using all five tools.
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Todd Helton – (First Base, 1997-2013) … First year on the ballot.
Todd Helton would seem to have a good shot at the Hall, but is not likely to be a first-ballot inductee – in part due to the fact that he spent his entire 17-year career with the Rockies (playing half his games in hitter-friendly Coors field). Helton, who put up a .316 career average, hit .345 at home and .287 on the road. Despite that home/road split, Helton’s body of work deserves HOF consideration. He was a five-time All Star, three-time Gold Glover and four-time Silver Slugger. He hit over .300 in 12 seasons – and won the NL batting crown in 2000 with a .372 average. His 59 doubles that season are the sixth-most all-time. Helton drove in 100 or more runs in five seasons and scored in triple figures six times. His 1,335 walks (36th all-time) indicate the respect he earned at the plate. It looks like he’ll be in the 20-25 percent range on the BBWAA ballot and he finished at 36.5 percent in the BBRT fan balloting. His vote totals should climb over time – and he would continue to get BBRT’s vote.
Todd Helton’s is one of only 18 players to reach 400 or more total bases in a season – and one of only seven players to have multiple 400+ total base campaigns.
Todd Helton’s Best Season: In 2000, Helton won the NL batting crown with a .372 average – and also led the league in base hits (216), doubles (59), RBI (147), on-base percentage (.463), slugging percentage (.698) and total bases (405). He also scored 138 runs and hit 42 home runs.
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Jeff Kent – (Second Base/Third Base/First Base, 1992-2008) … Sixth year on the ballot, 14.5 percent from the BBWAA last year.
BBRT believes Jeff Kent is a deserving candidate, but he has not been getting much support from the writers (14.5 percent a year ago, 12.9 percent in publicly released ballots through January 14). He does better in BBRT’s fan balloting (34.9 percent this year), but still falls far short of 75 percent. Kent holds the all-time MLB record for home runs by a second baseman (351 of his 377 career round trippers were hit while in the lineup at second base). He has a healthy .290 career batting average; his 1,518 RBI are 54th all time; and his 560 doubles 28th.
Jeff Kent has more career runs batted in than such noted Hall of Famers as Mickey Mantle, Billy Williams, Eddie Mathews, Duke Snider and Orlando Cepeda.
Kent was a five-time All Star and the 2000 NL MVP. As primarily a middle infielder, he hit 20 or more home runs in 12 seasons (a high of 37 in 2007) and topped 100 RBI eight times. He hit .276, with nine home runs and 23 RBI in 49 post-season games. A couple of Gold Gloves, at this traditionally defense-oriented position, would have really helped his case. Kent played for the Blue Jays (1992); Mets (1992-1996); Indians (1996); Giants (1997-2002); Astros (2003-2004); and Dodgers (2005-2008).
Jeff Kent’s Best Season: With the Giants in 2000, Kent put up these stats – 159 games; 196 hits; .334 average; 33 home runs; 125 RBI; 114 runs; 12 steals. His performance earned him the NL MVP Award.
Kent would BBRT’s vote – and I believe the BBWAA’s support is overdue (but not forthcoming).
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Omar Vizquel – (Shortstop/Third Base, 1989-2012) – Second year on the ballot, 37.0 percent on 2018 ballot.
Omar Vizquel got off to a good start toward an HOF plaque, grabbing 37 percent support on his first-ballot year. Vizquel, who once again earns BBRT’s vote, is standing relatively stable in both BBRT’s fan vote and the official BBWAA balloting. If Vizquel does make it to the HOF, it will be more with his glove (eleven Gold Gloves) than his bat. However, voters should be mindful of the fact that he finished his 24-season MLB career just 123 hits short of that milestone 3,000 safeties. Vizquel delivered premier defense to the Mariners (1989-1993); Indians (1994-2004); Giants (2005-2008); Rangers (2009); White Sox (2010-2011); and Blue Jays (2012). He was a three-time All Star – and put together a string of nine straight Gold Gloves at shortstop (1993-2001).
Omar Vizquel led his league in sacrifice bunts four times.
In the field, Vizquel has the second-highest career fielding percentage (.9847) among shortstops with at least 500 games at the position. The still-active Jose Eglasias is number one at .9853. Vizquel is also the all-time leader among shortstops in double plays, ranks third at the position for career assists and 11th in putouts. He shares the record (with Cal Ripken, Jr.) for the fewest errors by a shortstop in a season of at least 150 games played (three).
On offense, Vizquel put up a serviceable .272 career average, with 80 home runs, 951 RBI and 1,445 runs scored. The 1,445 runs put him in the top 100 players all-time (82nd); while his 2,877 hits puts him in the top 50 (43rd). He also swiped 404 bases – topping twenty steals eight times (a high of 42 in 1999) – putting him at number 72 on the all-time list. Vizquel played in 57 post-season games, hitting .250-0-20.
Omar Vizquel’s Best Season: In 1999, with the Indians, Vizquel hit a surprising .333, with five home runs, 66 RBI, 112 runs scored and 42 stolen bases – and, of course, won a Gold Glove at shortstop.
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Fred McGriff – (First Base, 1986-2004) … Tenth/final year on the ballot, 23.2 percent last year.
Fred McGriff played for the Blue Jays (1986-1990), Padres (1991-1993), Braves (1993-1997), Devil Rays (1998-2001, 2004), Cubs (2001-2002) and Dodgers (2003). McGriff was five-time All Star, who bashed 493 career home runs (led his league twice, hit 30 or more home runs in a season ten times); topped 100 RBI eight times (career total 1,550); and put up a .284 career average over 19 seasons. He ranks among MLB top 50 all-time in home runs, RBI, extra base hits and walks. McGriff was the 1994 All Star Game MVP. McGriff was also a solid post-season performer, going .303-10-37 in 50 post-season games.
Fred McGriff retired with 493 home runs, exactly matching the total of another well-respected first sacker – Lou Gehrig.
Fred McGriff’s Best Season: In 1999. McGriff hit .318, with 34 home runs and 104 RBI for Tampa Bay.
McGriff is getting a bit boost because this is his final year on the ballot, but is still falling far short of the 75 percent needed for induction. (He’s at 35.1 percent on publicly revealed ballots through January 14.) Despite his 493 round trippers (seven more certainly would have helped his case, as would a couple of 40+ HR seasons), McGriff will have to wait for election through the “Era Committees.”.
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Andy Pettitte – (LHP/Starter, 1995-2010, 2012-13) … First year on the ballot.
I had to think for awhile on this one, largely because a major part of Andy Pettitte’s HOF resume was achieved in the post-season. Pettitte holds the MLB post-season marks for most wins (19 … versus 11 losses), innings pitched (276 2/3), games started (44), and is second in strikeouts (183). His post-season accomplishments include a 3.81 career ERA and the 2001 American League Championship Series MVP Award.
Andy Pettitte started 30 or more games in a season 12 times, leading his league three times (1997, 2006, 2007.)
Pettitte was no slouch in the regular season (Yankees – 1995-2003, 2007-2010, 2012-13) and Astros (2004-06). He finished with 256 wins (153 losses) and a 3.85 ERA. Pettitte won 20 games in two seasons and 14 or more games 12 times – leading the AL with 21 wins in 1996. (As noted earlier, 100 more wins than losses seems to be a good standard for serious HOF consideration.) The three-time All Star struck out 2,448 batters (42nd all-time) in 2,316 innings. BBWAA voters aren’t showing much support, despite the 250 wins. Through January 14, Pettitte was names on just 7 percent of the publicly released BBWAA ballots. He did better on the BBRT fan ballot – 27.6 percent.
Andy Pettitte’s Best Season: In 1997, following a 21-8 campaign in 1996, Pettitte went 18-7, with a 2.88 ERA (fourth-best in the AL), leading the league in starts with 35, finishing third in innings pitched (240 1/3) and eighth in strikeouts (166).
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Coming Soon: A look at Wally Moon – the player who beat out Hank Aaron and Ernie Banks for the 1954 NL Rookie of the Year Award and earned a Master’s Degree in Moon Shots and more.
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