BBRT – 2015 American League Predictions

James Shields has finally signed, pitchers and catchers are heading for Spring Training and it’s time to take a look at what
expects in 2015.  We’ll start with a look at the American League – and BBRT’s predictions for the standings and contenders for the major awards.  Coming soon:  NL predictions.

Let’s look first at the standings, where – thanks to one of the most active off seasons ever – BBRT expects some new faces making the playoffs.  We’ll go over the  basics first, and then consider the division races team-by-team.

AL EAST

The Red Sox added offense and depth and look positioned to once again make the trip from worst-to-first.  The Blue Jays, also active in the off-season,  should provide the toughest competition – led by newcomer Josh Donaldson.  The Orioles lost a couple of key offensive pieces (Nelson Cruz/Nick Markakis) and were pretty much non-participants in the off-season marketplace, which may put them out of the playoff picture.  New York has too many “age & injury” questions and Tampa Bay is short on offense – and likely will miss Joe Maddon in the dugout. Predicted order of finish:

Boston Red Sox

Toronto Blue Jays (Wild Card)

Baltimore Orioles

New York Yankees

Tampa Bay Rays

AL CENTRAL

Possibly the closest division (top-to-bottom) in all of baseball, the White Sox appear to have made all the right moves in the off season. Still, it wouldn’t surprise BBRT to see less than a dozen games separating these five teams at the end.   The White Sox added pitching and offense, while Detroit lost some key hurlers – paving the way for Chicago’s rise. Still, Detroit – behind David Price, Justin Verlander and Anibel Sanchez – may have enough to hold first place. The Royals, who had so much go right last year, seem unlikely to make another Cinderella run, but have enough talent to be in the hunt. Cleveland and Minnesota are good enough to cause problems for the top of the division, but do not appear ready to challenge Detroit and Chicago.  Predicted order of finish:

Chicago White Sox

Detroit Tigers

Kansas City Royals

Cleveland Indians

Minnesota Twins

AL WEST

The Angels and Mariners are the powerhouses – and LA will be hard pressed to hold off Seattle.  BBRT is picking LA, but this is an LA/Seattle toss-up – a lot may depend on Josh Hamilton’s performance when he returns to the Angels’ lineup. Oakland traded away too many All Stars in revamping their team. Houston is on the rise, but with a long way to go.  Texas has too many injury concerns – but, if healthy, could surprise.

Los Angeles Angels

Seattle Mariners (Wild Card)

Oakland A’s

Houston Astros

Texas Rangers

Now for the Awards:

MVP:  Mike Trout, Angels.

Contenders: Robinson Cano, Mariners; Jose Bautista, Blue Jays; Miguel Cabrera, Tigers; Jose Abreu, White Sox.

Cy Young Award: Felix Hernandez, Mariners.

Contenders: Chris Sale, White Sox; David Price, Tigers; Yorlando Ventura, Royals.

Rookie of the Year:  Rusney Castillo, Red Sox.

Contenders: Francisco Lindor, Indians; Steve Souza, Rays; Carlos Rodon, White Sox; Ryan Rua, Rangers.

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Here’s a more detailed look at how BBRT sees the AL 2015 races.

 

AL EAST

First – Boston Red Sox

Worst – to first – to worst – to first again?  Three years ago, the Red Sox finished fifth in the East (26 games out), two years ago they topped the division and, last season, they dropped back to fifth (25 games out). It looks like they have put the pieces in place to get back to the top of the AL East in 2015.  Offensively, key additions include free agents Hanley Ramirez (slated to move from the infield to left field to accommodate the Red Sox’ depth) and 3B Pablo Sandoval.  Toss in the likes of DH David Ortiz, 2B Dustin Pedroia, rising star RF Mookie Betts, early Rookie of the Year favorite CF Rusney Castillo – and more – and the Red Sox have a solid, and deep, lineup. They also have considerable OF depth (Allen Craig, Shane Victorino, Danial Nava, Jackie Bradley, Jr.) from which to make a trade – particularly for pitching.

The rotation does not have a true ace, but with newcomers Rick Porcello (who won 15 games for the Tigers last year), Justin Masterson and Wade Miley joining Clay Bucholz and Joe Kelly – and a bullpen featuring closer Koji Uehara, Edward Mujica and Craig Breslow – it should be enough to bring Boston home on top in the East.  If any members of the projected rotation falter, prospect Anthony Renaudo is waiting in the wings.

Key question:  Which Clay Bucholz shows up – last year’s 8-11, 5.34 version or a healthy version of the 2013 All Star?

Red Sox Fact: Brock Holt provides the Sox protection around the Diamond. In 2014, he played 39 games at 3B, 35 in RF, 12 at SS, 11 at 2B, eight at 1B and eight in RF – hitting .281, with four homers, 29 RBI and 12 steals (finishing eighth in Rookie of the Year balloting).

Second – Toronto Blue Jays

Like the Red Sox, the Blue Jays will count on their offense to take them to (or near) the top of the division.  The key to that offense will be new 3B Josh Donaldson – acquired in a trade with the Athletics.  Donaldson hit .255 with 29 home runs and 98 RBI in pitcher-friendly Oakland last season (after .301-23-93 in 2013). The 2014 All Star should find Rogers Centre to his liking.  There is plenty of power up and down the line up with RF Joe Bautista, 1B Edwin Encarnacion and free-agent newcomer Russell Martin behind the plate.   SS Jose Reyes will provide some speed at the top.

The pitching is not as strong as the offense – but is sound.  Four returning starters – R.A. Dickey, Mark Buehrle, Marcus Stroman, Drew Hutchinson – were all double-digit winners a year ago.  The off-season trade of 11-game winner J.A. Happ opens the door for either Aaron Sanchez or Daniel Norris – two high-potential youngsters. The bull pen will likely be led by new closer (now that Casey Janssen has left via free agency) Brett Cecil and may include Sanchez if he doesn’t make the rotation (Sanchez has closer potential). Newcomer Marcus Estrada and Aaron Loup provide bullpen depth and a return to form by 2013 All Star Steve Delabar would be a plus.

Overall, it looks like the addition of Donaldson and Martin will enable the Jays to improve on their third-place finish of a year ago – grabbing a Wild Card spot or even unseating the Angels.

Key Question:  Will 22-year-old Dalton Pompey – who hit .231 in 17 late season games for the Jays – be able to handle the regular CF spot?  Pompey is a plus defender and hit .317 in three minor league stops a year ago.

Blue Jays Fact: The Blue Jays have MLB’s longest current post-season drought – having not earned a berth in the post-season since 1993.

Third – Baltimore Orioles

Basically non-participants in the off-season marketplace, the O’s will feel the loss of free agent outfielders Nelson Cruz and Nick Markakis.  In 2014 the pair combined for 54 home runs (25.5% of the O’s total)  and 158 RBI  (23.2% of the O’s total). Still, there are reasons for optimism: 1) The Orioles have Buck Showalter, who knows how to get the most out of his resources; 2) They did win the East by 12 games a year ago, so they have a bit of a cushion in the quest to repeat; 3) They have some players returning from injury who could close the offensive gap left by the Cruz/Markakis departures.

There is still the potential for a potent offense, with returnees CF Adam Jones and RF Steve Pearce.  A strong return from catcher Matt Weiters (Tommy John surgery). a rebound by Chris Davis (who hit 53 HRs just two seasons ago) and a year of good health from 3B Manny Machado (.278-12-32 in 82 games a year ago – knee surgery) could also boost the Orioles’ 2015 success.  The middle of the infield (SS J.J. Hardy and 2B Jonathan Schoop) is dependable and defense should remain a Baltimore strength.

Even without a true ace, starting pitching may be the Orioles’ “ace in the hole.” The rotation features four double-digit winners with 2014 ERAs under 3.75:  Chris Tillman; Wei-Yin Chen; Bud Norris; and Miguel Gonzalez. Closer Zach Britton (37 saves and a 1.65 ERA) will lead a bullpen that also features quality arms in the likes of Brian Matusz, Darren O’Day and Tommy Hunter.

Baltimore will be in the hunt, but BBRT sees the Birds falling short of the post season.

Key Question: Will 1B Chris Davis rebound? Two years ago, Davis put up a .286-53-138 line. Last year, Davis declined to .196-26-72, struck out in 38.4 percent of his at bats and faced a 25-game suspension (positive test for amphetamines associated with the Adderall).

Orioles Fact:  Baltimore led all of MLB in home runs in 2014 (211) and has topped 200 dingers in three straight seasons.

Fourth – New York Yankees

There’s trouble coming to the Big Apple – Jeter is gone, as is closer Dave Robertson (free agency) and starter Huroki Kuroda, who led the team in games started (32) in 2014.  The Yankees still do have some big names (and a big payroll), but that is both a blessing (proven players) and a curse (age and injury concerns). Among the starting nine, it’s possible incoming shortstop Didi Gregorius (trade with Arizona) will be the only player under 30.  The 24-year-old will be a defensive improvement over Jeter, but still is a work in progress at the plate (.226-6-27 in 80 games for Arizona).   The fact is, the Yankees have plenty of question marks in the expected line-up.  In the outfield 37-year-old Carlos Beltran is coming off one of his worst seasons ever (and elbow surgery). First baseman Mark Teixeira hit only .216 and will be spelled by newcomer Garrett Jones. While C Brian McCann contributed 23 home runs and 75 RBI, his .232 batting average was 40 points below his career average.  There are bright spots.  CF Jacob Ellsbury and LF Brett Gardner delivered power and speed as expected. Switch-hitting 3B Chase Headley continued to flash a solid glove – although it’s unlikely he will ever match his 31-homer, 115-RBI campaign of 2012 (the only season he’s topped 13 home runs).

On the mound, particularly given Kuroda’s departure, the Yankees need healthy seasons from Masahiro Tanaka (13-5, 2.77 in a season interrupted by an elbow injury) and oft-sidelined Michael Pineda. A healthy C.C. Sabathia (coming off knee surgery) would significantly improve the Yankees’ outlook.  Other likely starters are former Marlin Nathan Eovaldi, whose upper 90s fastball offers significant promise, 36-year-old Chris Capuano and Ivan Nova (coming off Tommy John surgery). In the bullpen, 6’ 8” flamethrower Dellin Betances looks ready to step into Robertson’s closer shoes. The Yankees added quality to the pen with free agent Andrew Miller. David Carpenter, Adam Warren, Esmil Rogers and Justin Wilson give the Yankees plenty to choose from in filling out the relief corps.

Looking at the roster, it’s hard to see the Yankees being a factor in 2015.

Key Question:  Will Alex Rodriguez be back and, if so, what will the 39-year-old have left in the tank?

Yankee Fact:  In 2014, the Yankees were the only AL team to not have a single player receive a vote in either the MVP or Cy Young Award balloting.   (Note: While Tampa Bay’s final roster did not include vote-getters in either category, CYA votes did go to David Price, who played the majority of his games with Tampa before the trade to Detroit).

Fifth – Tampa Bay Rays

If you’re going to examine the Rays, you have to start with their strength – the pitching – because offensively there just isn’t a whole lot to talk about.  Let’s look at the Rays’ rotation.  While they are missing a bonafide number-one guy – thanks to last year’s in-season David Price trade – the Rays have three starters who could fit into the number-two or number-three role on most teams: Alex Cobb; Chris Archer; and Jake Ordozzi.  By mid-season, the Rays hope to have Matt Moore back from Tommy John surgery. Moore, 17-4, 3.29 in 2013, would slide into the number-one spot. Backing up the rotation is a bullpen led by Bryan Boxberger, pressed into the closer’s role due to Jake McGee’s off-season elbow surgery.  McGee went 5-2, 1.89 with 19 saves and 90 strikeouts in 71 1.3 innings last season – and should return sometime in May.

The Rays offense was 27^th in runs scored a year ago, and little was done to address the problem.  In fact, potential offense was traded away when 2013 Al Rookie of the Year Wil Myers was sent to San Diego as part of a three-team multi-player trade and two-time All Star 2B Ben Zobrist (arguably the face of the franchise) was sent (along with SS Yunel Escobar) to the A’s for C/DH John Jaso, prospects and cash. Escobar will be replaced by free agent signee Asdrubel Cabrera, who should be an upgrade. What qualifies as the heart of the Rays’ offense beats through 3B Evan Longoria (.253-22-91). James Loney is steady at 1B, possessing a good glove, but lacking the power you expect from a corner infielder (.290-9-69). Similarly, CF Desmond Jennings appears slotted into the leadoff spot, but doesn’t get on base at the rate you expect at the top of the order. The other two OF spots will likely go to Steven Souza and Kevin Kiermaier.

The Rays starting pitching will keep them in games, and could bring them home as high as third place.  But there just isn’t enough offense to get them into the post-season.  Souza (picked up in a trade) could surprise. In three 2014 minor league stops, Souza hit .345-18-88, with 26 steals. He was voted the International League’s (AAA) Rookie of the Year AND Most Valuable Player.  At the major league level, Souza went only 3-for-23 with the Nationals – although two of his hits were home runs.

Key Question: How much will the Rays miss previous manager Joe Maddon’s 11 years of managerial experience (twice AL Manager of the Year).  Maddon’s replaecment 37-year-old Kevin Cash (former major league catcher and Indians bullpen coach) has no managerial experience.

Rays Fact: The Rays’ 96 double plays in 2014 are the lowest total ever in a 162-game season.

AL CENTRAL

First – Chicago White Sox

Wow!  No really, wow!  The White Sox are poised to make the jump from fourth place to first in the AL Central – and they did it with a combination of free agent signings, trades and the development of home-grown talent.

Consider the rotation.  It’s led by potential Cy Young winner Chris Sale (the Sox first- round pick in 2010) and Jeff Samardzija (picked up in an off-season trade with the Athletics). The number-three spot goes to Jose Quintana, with John Danks and Hector Noesi likely to round out the starting five.  Waiting in the wings, but needing a little more seasoning, is the Sox’ 2014 first-round draft pick Carlos Rondon.  The 22-year-old moved from Rookie League to AAA in his first minor league season – and could find his way into the rotation some time this season.  The bull pen – a trouble spot last season – is in good hands for 2015, led by free-agent signee closer David Robertson, who saved 39 games for the Yankees.  The Sox also added a solid set up man (again through free agency) in Zach Duke.  These two moves will enable the Sox to develop the bull pen roles (last season, three different relievers each reached double-digits in save opportunities for the Sox, who had 21 blown saves).

Chicago also upgraded its offense, adding free agents Melky Cabrera (OF) and Adam LaRoche (DH) to complement Rookie of the Year 1B Jose Abreu (.317-36-107), RF Avisail Garcia, SS Alexei Ramirez and top-of-the-order catalyst CF Adam Eaton. The Sox also added flexibility to the roster, signing free agent Emilio Bonifacio, who hit .259 in 119 games last season (Cubs/Braves) – and spent time at all three outfield spots, as well as second base, third base and shortstop.

They also picked up left-hander Dan Jennings – 0-2 with a 1.34 ERA in 47 appearances in 2014 – in a trade with Miami.  BBRT Note:  The Jennings acquisition might not have the impact of some of the other ChiSox moves, but I wanted to include it so I could point out that LHP Dan Jennings was traded away by Marlins GM Dan Jennings (no relation).

Key Question:  What kind of season will Avasail Garcia (torn labrum early in 2014) put up? Garcia showed promise in 2013 (.304-5-21 in 42 games), but did not fare as well in the injury-interrupted 2014 campaign (.244-7-29 in 46 games).  Garcia did hit .312 with power in the Venezuelan League and has been labeled by some as the most underrated hitter in the Sox line-up.

White Sox Fact: Chris Sale is only the fourth White Sox pitcher to record two consecutive 200 strikeout seasons (226 in 2013/208 in 2014). The others are Javier Vazquez (2007-08); Tom Bradley (1971-72); and Ed Walsh (1907-08 & three consecutive 1910-12).

Second – Detroit Tigers

The Tigers added some offense, but may have lost/given up too much pitching to finish atop the division.  The key loss was Max Scherzer (18-5, 3.15), who signed with the Nationals.  In addition, they gave up 15-game winner Rick Porcello in the trade for outfielder Yeonis Cespedes (22 HRs and 100 RBI for Oakland/Boston a year ago). The Tigers went right to work to replace Porcello – via a trade with the Reds – adding Cincinnati’s 15-game winner Alfredo Simon to the roster.  Still, Simon is 33-years-old and has only 51 starts in seven major league seasons, so he is not a sure thing.  Detroit also picked up right-hander Shane Greene from the Yankees (as part of a three-team deal also involving the Diamondbacks). Greene, the Yankees’ Minor League Pitcher of the Year in 2013, is considered to have a high ceiling.  And, keep in mind, the Tigers still have David Price, Justin Verlander and Anibel Sanchez in the rotation.

The bullpen – which had the AL’s highest batting-average against last season (.270) remains a question mark.  Closer Joe Nathan had 35 saves, but also a league-leading seven blown saves and a 4.81 ERA. Others in the pen are likely to include Joakim Soria, Joel Hanrahan, Al Alburquerque and promising youngster Bruce Rondon.

The offense still looks potent, with hitting machine 3B Miguel Cabrera, DH Victor Martinez, 2B Ian Kinsler, LF J.D. Martinez  and Cespedes providing plenty of power (a combined 114 home runs in 2014). Defense up the middle should be improved with the return of Jose Iglesias at shortstop, Alex Avila at catcher and the addition of CF Anthony Gose (via trade).

So why not pick the Tigers to repeat?  Three reasons – the suspect bullpen, questions about Verlander and, finally,  injury concerns. 1B Miguel Carbrera had ankle surgery in the off-season; DH Victor Martinez had knee surgery; SS Jose Iglesias missed all of 2014 with stress fractures in his shins; C Alex Avila has suffered multiple concussions; relievers Bruce Rondon and Joel Hanrahan have had recent elbow surgeries (2014 and 2013, respectively) and starter Anibel Sanchez’ 2014 season was injury-shortened.  Lots of talent, but also lots of potential for problems – likely to bring the Tigers home in second place.

Key Question:  Can Justin Verlander reverse a trend that has seen his ERA increase in each of the past four seasons (from 2.40 in 2011 to 4.54 in 2014) and his strikeouts per nine-innings drop from 9.0 to 6.9 in the same time span.

Tigers Fact: The Tigers appear to have turned up the speed dial.  In 2014, the Tigers stole 106 bases, fourth in the AL.  In 2013, Detroit stole only 35 bases – the lowest total in all of MLB.

Third – Kansas City Royals

A lot of things went right for the Royals in 2014 – in both the regular season and the post season.  After the departure free agents James Shields, Billy Butler and Nori Aoki, they’d have to go even better for Kansas City to make the post season in 2015.  Still, the Royals 2014 success was based on a blend of speed, defense and pitching (particularly the bullpen) – and there is still considerable talent in those areas.

The offense will be led by returnees LF Alex Gordon (a team-leading 19 home runs and  74 RBI a year ago); 3B Mike Moustakas; C Salvador Perez; and CF Lorenzo Cain.  The Royals are hoping free-agent signees Kendry Morales and Alex Rios (who both had off-seasons in 2014) can rebound and replace Butler and Noaki. The defense will be there again with the Royals boasting plus defenders nearly all around the field.

On the mound, KC will miss Shields, but 23-year-old Yorlando Ventura (14-10, 3.20 a year ago) seems ready to step into the number-one rotation spot. Number-two in the rotation cpould very well be Danny Duffy (9-12, with a 2.53 ERA).  Rounding out the rotation are veterans Jason Vargas, Jeremy Guthrie and free-agent signee Edison Volquez. The bullpen is one of the best in baseball, led by closer Greg Holland (46 saves and a 1.44 ERA in 2014) – who is preceded to the mound by the likes of Wade Davis, Kelvin Herrera and Luke Hochevar.  How good can the pen be?  In 2014, the Royals were 65-4 when going into the seventh inning with a lead.

Kansas City has enough going for it to stay in the chase, but Detroit and Chicago may be just a bit better.

Key Question: Will either corner infielder (1B Eric Hosmer/3B Mike Moustakas) have the breakout season the Royals have been waiting for?

Kansas City Fact:  The numbers show the Royals focus getting the ball in play and making something happen. In 2014, Kansas City recorded the AL’s fewest walks and the fewest batters’ strikeouts – as well as the league’s fewest HRs and most stolen bases.

Fourth – Cleveland Indians

The Indians notched 85 wins a year ago with a combination of strong pitching, acceptable (but not spectacular) offense and – unfortunately – a defense that led all of MLB in errors (118).  BBRT expects more of the same in 2015 and, even if the defense improves, the Tigers and White Sox will still outpace the Tribe – which had a quiet offseason.

The offense will again be led by LF Michael Brantley (.327-20-94), with support in the power department from 1B/DH Carlos Santana (27 home runs), C Yan Gomes (21 home runs) and free-agent signee Brandon Moss (25 HRs for Oakland). Cleveland could use a rebound season from 2B Jason Kipnis (who went from .284-17-94 in 2013 to .240-6-41 last season) and DH Nick Swisher (who had knee surgery in August).

The pitching staff looks to be in better shape than the offense, with Cy Young Award winner Corey Kluber (18-9, 2.44) leading the way.  The remainder of the rotation will be drawn from Carlos Carrasco (who had a strong second half), Trevor Bauer, Danny Salazar, T.J. House, Gavin Floyd, Zach McAllister and Josh Tomlin.  The Indians’ rotation logged a second-half ERA under 3.00 in 2014 – and the Indians are counting on that to be a portent of things to come.  The bullpen should be a strength again in 2015, led by closer Cody Allen (24 saves and 91 strikeouts in 69 2/3 innings). Last season Allen, Bryan Shaw, Scott Atchinson and Marc Rzepczynski (love that name on a uniform) all made at least 70 appearances – and manager Terry Francona can be expected to work the bullpen (effectively) again in 2015.

The Indians have the talent to be above .500 again, but – unless they can tighten the defense – will also find themselves once again out of the post season.

Key Question:  Is Brandon Moss fully recovered from off-season hip surgery, and where will he play (RF/1B/DH)? Note: In 2015, Moss hit .268, with 21 home runs and 66 RBI in 89 games before the All Star break, but just .173-4-15 in 58 games after the break.

Indians Fact: Despite an 85-77 season, just three games out of a Wild Card spot, the Indians drew 1,437,393 at home last season – the worst home attendance in all of MLB.

Fifth – Minnesota Twins

The Twins suffered their fourth consecutive season of 90 or more losses in 2014 – and starting pitching was the club’s most significant weakness.  The rotation rang up a 5.06 ERA, the worst in all of MLB, while the team’s 715 runs scored were seventh-best  in MLB and fifth in the AL.

The Twins worked to address their pitching needs by signing free agent Ervin Santana (a 14-game winner for the Braves in 2014).  He joins 16-game winner Phil Hughes at the top of the rotation. The remainder of the rotation will likely be drawn from Ricky Nolasco (who pitched with a sore elbow early in the season and then came back from the disabled list to record a 2.93 ERA in five September outings) and 13-game winner Kyle Gibson.  Candidates for the final spot include Tommy Milone, Mike Pelfrey and prospects Alex Meyer and Trevor May.  The bullpen will again be led by closer Glen Perkins (34 saves), with a supporting cast likely to include Casey Fien, Brian Duensing, and Caleb Thielbar.  The Twins could use some power arms there.

Offensively, the Twins show signs of life.  2B Brian Dozier hit 23 home runs and stole 21 bases. Danny Santana CF/SS hit .319 in 101 games, 3B Trevor Plouffe provided 14 home runs and 80 RBI, OF Oswaldo Arcia started to live up to his promise (20 homers) and Kenny Vargas looks poised to do some damage from the DH slot. In addition, the Twins added free agent RF Torii Hunter (returning to the Twins from the Tigers), who is a professional hitter (.286-17-83) and a leader on the field and in the clubhouse. Still, how well the Twins go may be determined by three-time batting champion 1B Joe Mauer, a career .319 hitter, who hit only .277 last year. The Twins need a rebound from the hometown favorite.

The Twins of 2015 will be improved, much more competitive, but not ready challenge for a playoff spot.  If all goes right – Nolasco and Mauer return to form, Arcia and Vargas continue to develop and Hunter provides the expected leadership, the Twins could push .500 and make things difficult for Central Division competitors – and the Twins have some big-time prospects in the pipeline, so it shouldn’t be long until fans see meaningful September baseball.

Key Question:  When will the Twins fans see OF Byron Buxton and 3B Miguel Sano, two of baseball’s top prospects?  The pair is sure to generate plenty of offense and excitement once they move to the big club.

Twins Fact: In 2014, Twins’ right-hander Phil Hughes walked just 16 batters, while fanning 186 (in 209 2/3 innings).  That 11.63 strikeout to walk ratio is a modern MLB record.

AL WEST

First – Los Angeles Angels

The Angels led all of MLB in regular-season wins a year ago and should contend again this year.  In fact, they may have enough to hold off the fast-charging Mariners in the AL West.

Offensively, the Angels will look to 2014 MVP CF Mike Trout to lead the way – he’ll be flanked in the outfield by lead-off hitter Kole Calhoun (who hit .272 and scored 90 runs in just 127 games) and (early in the season) Matt Joyce. LF Josh Hamilton may miss the first four to six weeks of the season following shoulder surgery. 1B Albert Pujols remains in the clean-up spot, but he is 34 and showing signs of wear (.272-28-105 in 2014). Pujols, however, is still one of the game’s most reliable run producers.  The Angels will have to replace 2B Howie Kendrick’s team-leading 181 hits, but the Angels did lead all of MLB in runs scored last season, and the line-up hasn’t changed that much, so they should be okay.

Starting pitching will again be an Angels’ strong point (and the key to holding off the Mariners). Jered Weaver, Matt Shoemaker, Garrett Richards and C.J. Wilson combined for 60 wins a year ago (although knee surgery will delay the start of Richards’ season).  Andrew Heaney (picked up in the Kendrick trade) is considered a top prospect.  Others in in the running for a rotation spot are Hector Santiago and Nick Tropeano. The bullpen is solid, led by closer Houston Street (41 saves, 1.37 ERA for the Dodgers and Angels in 2014), with support from free-agent signee and key set-up man Joe Smith, Fernando Salas and Kevin Jepsen.

The Angels may have just enough to retain the AL West title – but it will be a horse race.

Key Question:  How soon will OF Josh Hamilton and SP Garrett Richards return?  These are key cogs in the Angel machine.

Angels Fact: In three full MLB seasons, Mike Trout has never finished lower than second in the AL MVP voting.

Second – Seattle Mariners

It should be an exciting season in Seattle, with a well-balanced Mariners squad making it to the post season – and, perhaps, even knocking the Angels off the top spot in the AL West.

The Mariners made one of the biggest free agent moves of the off season, signing AL home run champ Nelson Cruz (Orioles) – whose bat (.271-40-108) will slide nicely into the DH role and cleanup spot for the Mariners.  And, Cruz will be surrounded by power, with 2B Robinson Cano and 3B Kyle Seager likely to hit in the number-three and number-five spots, respectively.  The Mariners’ outfield will be revamped for 2015 – and we may see some notable platooning.  Candidates include: Dustin Ackley (14 HRs/8 steals), James Jones (27 steals in 108 games), Austin Jackson and newcomers Seth Smith and Justin Ruggiano.

The rotation looks solid, starting with 2014 AL ERA champ and perennial Cy Young Award candidate Felix Hernandez.  Hisashi Iwakuma won 15 games last year and is a solid number-two. Then there are a host of talented young hurlers – James Paxton, Taijuan Walker, Reonis Elias – not to mention off-season pickup (via trade) J.A. Happ, an 11-game winner for the Blue Jays last season.  In the pen, closer Fernando Rodney sometimes creates excitement via the base on balls, but he did save 48 games in 51 opportunities. The rest of the pen has shown the ability to get the big strikeout when needed.

The Mariners appear ready to make the post season and possibly move the Angels off the top of the AL West.

Key Question:  Can the Mariners improve young (24-years-old) C Mike Zunino’s plate patience? In 2014, he hit 22 home runs – but walked only 17 times, while striking out 158 and hitting .199.

Mariners Fact: The Mariners made the fewest errors in the AL last season (82) – one fewer than their main AL West competition – the Angels.

Third – Oakland A’s

Another WOW! (See the White Sox write up.)  Gone from the Oakland A’s are 2014 All Stars 3B Josh Donaldson, P Jon Lester, OF/1B Brandon Moss, C/DH Derek Norris and P Jeff Samardzija (voted to the NL 2014 All Star team before being traded to the A’s), as well as P Jason Hammel, SS Jed Lawrie, OF Jonny Gomes, IF Alberto Callaspo and C John Jaso.   In their place are 2014 All Star reliever Tyler Clippard, as well as 1B/DH Billy Butler, 2B/OF Ben Zobrist, 3B Brett Lawrie, 1B Ike Davis, IF Marcus Semien, and SP Jesse Hahn.

Ultimately, Billy Beane has dismantled 2014’s AL Wild Card team and put together a markedly different lineup for 2015 (the pitching remains more stable).  Still, there is potential here (as well as plenty of positional flexibility) – and Beane always seems to have a plan.  The A’s will look for offensive punch from Butler at DH (.271-9-66 for the Royals); Zobrist (.272-10-52 for Tampa Bay), Lawrie (.247-12-38 in 70 games for Toronto); and Davis (.233-11-51 for the Mets/Pirates) – and have hopes that Semien will blossom.

Ultimately, the A’s will go as far as their pitching takes them.  The rotation will be led by Sonny Gray (14-10, 3.07) and Scott Kazmir (15-9, 3.55). Jesse Hahn went 7-4, 3.07 with the Padres last year and looks like the real deal.  Jesse Chavez, Drew Pomeranz and Chris Bassitt will compete for the final two spots, but their run likely will be temporary, as the A’s are hoping for mid-season returns (Tommy John surgery) by A.J. Griffin and Jarrod Parker, who went a combined 26-18 in 2013 (but did not pitch in 2014).  Sean Doolittle (22 saves) will close, supported by Clippard, Ryan Cook, Dan Otero and Eric O’Flaherty.

Overall, the starting rotation looks sound (especially if Parker and Griffin return as expected) and the bullpen has potential. However, the offense looks thin in the power department – and there is the question of how well (or how soon) all the new faces will gel.  Billy Beane, however, has proven the skeptics wrong in the past.  Still, BBRT thinks a third-place finish is giving the A’s the benefit of the doubt.

Key Question:  Will Jarrod Parker and A.J. Griffin return on schedule and in-form –  and will that free up Beane for even more moves mid-season?

A’s Fact:  In 2014, the A’s drew the most walks in the AL (586), while A’s hurlers gave up the second-fewest walks (406).

Fourth – Houston Astros

The Astros delivered a 19-win improvement in 2014, and should improve again – although not enough to contend – in 2015.  They have some exciting young players in place, and more on the horizon.  Key to the Houston offense are returnees 2B Jose Altuve (the 25-year-old captured the AL batting title, hitting .341 and collecting 225 hits, while also stealing an AL-best 56 bases), DH Chris Carter (37 home runs), RF George Springer (20 home runs in 78 games) and newcomers C/OF Evan Gattis (22 home runs in 108 games with the Braves) and Colby Rasmus (18 home runs in 104 games for the Blue Jays).  Newcomer Jed Lawrie is also expected to provide some pop from the shortstop position. The Astros will still strikeout a lot, but the offense should be improved.

The starting rotation will be led by the left-right combination of Dallas Keuchel and Collin McHugh, who combined for 54 starts, 23 wins and a 2.84 ERA in 2014. The third spot in the rotation likely goes to Scott Feldman (8-12, 3.74). After that, the most likely candidates being Brett Oberholtzer and Brad Peacock. Relief pitching should be improved with the addition of free agents Pat Neshek (7-2, 1.87, 6 saves for the Cardinals) and anticipated closer Luke Gregerson (5-5, 2.12 in 72 games for the A’s).  There is support available from among former closer Chad Qualls, Josh Fields, Tony Sipp and Will Harris.

The Astros look to be better in 2015 (following up on a 19-victory improvement in 2014) – and could reach the .500 mark if the back end of the rotation can surprise and the relief staff delivers as expected.

Key Question: What will the Astros get from the corner infield positions?  In 2014, 1B Jon Singleton, a major power-hitting prospect, delivered 13 home runs in 95 games – but hit only .168 and struck out 134 times in 310 at bats.  On the opposite corner, 3B Matt Dominguez turned in a .215-16-57 line – after .214-21-77 in 2013.

Houston Fact:  In 2014, the free-swinging Astros finished fourth in the AL in home runs, but 14^th in runs scored.  (That may be partially attributable to their league-leadership in batters’ strikeouts.)

Fifth – Texas Rangers

If they get healthy, the Rangers have a chance to make some noise – and prove this prediction w-a-a-y wrong –  in 2015.  Last season, they plummeted to last place in the AL West – and the fewest wins in the junior circuit – driven at least in part by injuries.  RF Sin Soo Choo (ankle/elbow), 1B Prince Fielder (neck), SP Yu Darvish (elbow), SP Derek Holland (knee surgery) and DH Mitch Moreland (ankle) – all missed time in 2014.  The Rangers need these players to return  healthy.

The offense should again be led by 3B Adrian Beltre, who not only delivered a .324-19-77 line in 2014, but is a four-time Gold Glover at the hot corner. 1B Prince Fielder is coming back from neck surgery that limited him to 42 games in 2014, but is only one year removed from a 162-game, 25-home run, 106-RBI season (Detroit, 2013). RF Sin Soo Choo delivered .242-13-48 in 123 games, but topped 20 home runs as recently as 2013. Also expected to contribute are speedy CF Leonys Martin (31 steals) in the lead off spot and C Robinson Chirinos (13 homers in 92 games). A rebound from SS Elvis Andrus would also help and likely LF Ryan Rau has hit wherever he has played and went .295-2-14 in a 28-game call up.  All in all, there is solid offense available.

The pitching will be led by Yu Darvish and Derek Holland, who both missed time in 2014. The remainder of the rotation looks to be Ross Detwiler, Colby Lewis and Nick Tepesch. Matt Harrison and Martin Perez – both coming back from surgery – should be available in the second half. The bullpen features closer Neftali Perez  (13 saves – after recovery from Tommy John surgery), Tanner Scheppers (elbow injury last spring), Kyuji Fujikawa (Tommy John surgery 2013), Shawn Tolleson (2.76 ERA in 64 games) and Martin Perez.

If the stars align – and return to the field healthy – the Rangers could climb as high as third place.  There seems, however, to be too many questions to expect that.

Key Question:  What does the future hold for once top prospect Jurickson Profar, who missed all of 2014 with a major shoulder injury and should start 2015 in the minors?

Rangers Fact: Texas had notched four consecutive seasons of at least 90 wins before dropping to 67 in 2014.

 

Coming soon – a look at the National League.

 

I tweet baseball @DavidBBRT