In this post, BBRT will share:<\/p>\n
- \n
- Predictions on the 2021 BBWAA voting;<\/li>\n
- BBRT\u2019s ballot (if I had one);<\/li>\n
- A deep look into all the candidates on the ballot;<\/li>\n
- A link to BBRT\u2019s unofficial fan ballot \u2013 please take a few minutes to follow the link and cast your votes.<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
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Note: For a look at the Early Baseball Era (veterans) Committee candidates, click here<\/a>.\u00a0 <\/strong><\/span>For the Golden Days Era Committee candidates, click here<\/a>.\u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n
To skip the post (although I hope you will read on) and go right to the Fan Ballot, click here<\/a>.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n
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––PARTICIPATE IN BASEBALL ROUNDTABLE’S\u00a0 2022 FANS’ HALL OF FAME BALLOT—<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n
Baseball Roundtable is once again conducting an unofficial fan ballot – to cast your vote(s), click here<\/a>.\u00a0 Remember, you can vote for up to ten of the nominees for 2022 induction.\u00a0 If you want to read through the nominees’ bios first, there is another link to the BBRT Fan Ballot following the bios (near the end of this post).\u00a0 BBRT will be providing updates on the fan balloting, as well as a post-election comparison of fan votes as compared to the final BBWAA results.\u00a0 Voting on the BBRT Fan Ballot will remain open until December 28, 2021.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n
Also, if you leave your email address in the comments section at the end of the ballot, you will be entered in a bobblehead and baseball card “surprise-prize” drawing.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/baseballroundtable.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/Ballot-300x196.jpg\")
<\/a><\/p>\nAgain, to cast your votes, click here<\/a>.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n
As you consider this year\u2019s slate of candidates, BBRT would stress that all<\/strong> <\/em>the players on the ballot – even those who remain for only one voting cycle – deserve recognition. To rise to the major leagues, last ten years and make it past the Hall of Fame Screening Committee is a significant accomplishment in itself.\u00a0 In fact, the annual ballot release is a highlight for Baseball Roundtable, as it provides a chance to acknowledge the accomplishments of all the candidates \u2013 not just the favorites for election.\u00a0 A review of the ballot gives us the opportunity to honor Mike Buehrle’s n0-hitter and perfect game; Carl Crawford’s 480 stolen bases; Billy Wagner’s 400 saves; Torii Hunter’s nine Gold Gloves; the MVP seasons of Justin Morneau and Jimmy Rollins; Prince Fielders 50–HR season; and more.<\/p>\n
Now on to the official 2022 Baseball Hall of Fame election process itself – and, then, a look at the players on the ballot for 2021.<\/p>\n
BASEBALL HALL OF FAME ELIGIBILITY\/CRITERIA FOR ELECTION<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n
The basic rules for eligibility are that a player must have played at least ten seasons and be retired for at least five years. In addition, the player must be approved for the ballot by the Hall of Fame Screening Committee.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n
A player can remain on the ballot for up to ten years, but must receive at least five percent of the vote in the preceding year\u2019s ballot to remain on the ballot.\u00a0 Each voter can vote for up to ten candidates.\u00a0 Election requires that a player be named on at least 75 percent of the ballots cast.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n
The criteria for election: “Voting shall be based upon the player’s record, playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character, and contributions to the team(s) on which the player played.”<\/strong><\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n
A couple of preliminary comments.<\/p>\n
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- The 2022 ballot includes four players in their final year of eligibility – a group that generally gains some additional momentum.\u00a0 However, this year’s “final ballot” group – Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Sammy Sosa and Curt Schilling –\u00a0 brings with it some controversy (PEDs, politics, personality and even a denied request to be removed from the ballot). How all of that affect voting will be interesting to watch.<\/li>\n
- Support for the two strongest newcomers on the ballot – Alex Rodriguez and David Ortiz\u00a0 – may also be affected by concerns that go beyond what are clearly Hall of Fame numbers.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Now, let’s take a look at whom BBRT predicts will be elected by the BBWAA; how BBRT would vote if I had a ballot; and the bios of these year\u2019s candidates.<\/p>\n
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—–Baseball Roundtable’s Hall of Fame Predictions for 2022—–<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n<\/blockquote>\n
First, the Roundtable’s Track Record … <\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n
Last November, I noted that Baseball Roundtable was “not optimistic about balloting” producing any new HOF members – giving\u00a0 Curt Schilling the best chance of election. No one was elected, while Schilling did lead all candidates with 71.1 percent of the vote.\u00a0 In November 2020, Baseball Roundtable correctly predicted\u00a0 the election of Derek Jeter and Larry Walker \u2013 and anticipated\u00a0 \u201cdark horse\u201d candidate Curt Schilling would fall closer to 70 percent than 75.\u00a0 Jeter and Walker were elected and Schilling fell short (at 70 percent). Three years years ago, BBRT projected the election of Mariano Rivera and Edgar Martinez and listed Mike Mussina and Roy Halladay as \u201cdark horse\u201d candidates with a chance to generate the needed 75 percent support.\u00a0 \u00a0It was a bit of a swing and miss (maybe a foul ball), as all four were elected.\u00a0 Four years ago, BBRT predicted the election of Chipper Jones, Jim Thome, Vlad Guerrero and Trevor Hoffman (with Mike Mussina as a \u201cdark horse\u201d candidate). Jones, Thome, Guerrero and Hoffman made it, with Mussina garnering 64.5 percent (sixth-most).<\/p>\n
2022 Prediction …<\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n
For 2021, BBRT is again “not optimistic” about the balloting.\u00a0 I anticipate a second consecutive shutout.\u00a0 The best chance for election this year: David Ortiz and Alex Rodriguez.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n
Dark Horse Possibilities ….<\/strong><\/em><\/span><\/p>\n
1. David Ortiz.<\/strong>\u00a0 Ortiz’ 541 home runs and 1,768 RBI, plus his post-season performance, clearly are Hall-worthy (more on Ortiz in the bio section). I put him at the top of the “dark horse” list for a couple of reasons: His positive personality and the fact that he appears more lightly brushed by the PED-controversey. Ortiz did not fail a drug test after 2004, but a positive result was noted in a “leaked” 2003 survey test.\u00a0 In 2016, when asked about Ortiz’ 2003 test results, MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred said of Ortiz “… there were legitimate scientific questions about whether or not those (some of the test results) were truly positive.”\u00a0 I think Ortiz will be treated well on the first ballot (55-65%), but there will be enough BBWAA holdouts – some on the basis of PED suspicions, others who sets a higher standard for first-ballot candidates and a few with a lingering negative bias against designated hitters- to preclude the necessary 75 percent.<\/p>\n
2. Curt Schilling.\u00a0<\/strong> Schilling’s stats (detail in the bio section) were strong enough to garner him 70 percent support in 2020 and 71.1 percent last year.\u00a0 It does appear his political and social views and the manner in which he expresses them have been obstacles in his path to the Hall.\u00a0 He didn’t do himself any favors by requesting to be removed from the ballot and indicating he would “not allow a group of morally bankrupt frauds another year to lie about my life.”\u00a0 \u00a0The Hall denied his request and BBRT believes this could go one of three ways: 1) The BBWAA voters could see Schilling’s outburst as just “Curt being Curt” and the traditional final-year boost could put him in the Hall; 2) Reverse psychology could kick in and the BBWAA voters could call Schilling’s bluff and elect him (if only to see how he reacts); 3) The BBWAA voters could choose to deny Schilling one more time for past reasons and\/or his more recent request and criticism.\u00a0 I’m betting on option three and a slight decline in Schilling’s support.<\/p>\n
3. (tie) Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens. <\/strong>Bonds and Clemens – both in their tenth and final year on the ballot – each tracked at just shy of 62 percent in last year’s voting.\u00a0 While they clearly have Hall of Fame numbers, the PED-specter has shaped their candidacies. The question for 2022 is whether an adequate number of\u00a0 BBWAA voters think the pair have been punished enough and are ready to add their support.\u00a0 I anticipate both Bonds and Clemens falling just shy of 70 percent, and the BBWAA passing this issue on to the ERA ( Veterans) Committee (where Bonds and Clemens will eventually gain induction). If the writers are ready to “forget and forgive,” we could see a 2022 calls to Bonds and Clemens.<\/p>\n
5. Alex Rodriguez<\/strong>. Rodriguez clearly has Hall of Fame on-the-field numbers (see bio section), but like Bonds and Clemens is carrying PED “baggage” into his HOF candidacy.\u00a0 I would have put A-Rod into a tie with Bonds and Clemens except that I am not convinced the BBWAA will want to make a player who has served a one-year suspension a first-ballot inductee. Rodriguez, however, ha s worked to restore his reputation and 55-60 percent support in year one would not surprise me.<\/p>\n
Let\u2019s move on to BBRT\u2019s hypothetical – if I had one<\/em>\u00a0–\u00a0 ballot and bios of the players I would vote for; followed by a look at the remainder of the 2021 candidates.<\/p>\n
Side note: You will not find those most clearly caught up in the PED-controversy on my ballot. While I think the best of them will eventually be elected\/inducted, if I had a ballot, I\u2019d prefer they made the 75 percent without my vote.\u00a0 As I noted in my predictions, I think it’s likely the BBWAA will “punt” on these players and “kick the ball”down the road to the Era Committee.\u00a0\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n
So, here is BBRT\u2019s Hall of Fame Ballot \u2013 again, if I had one \u2013 with the players listed in BBRT’s order of preference.<\/p>\n
— PLAYERS WHO WOULD GET BBRT\u2019S VOTE —<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n
David Ortiz – Designated Hitter\/First Base, 1992-2016 … First year on the ballot.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/baseballroundtable.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/ortiz-300x207.jpg\")
<\/a>Photo: Cathy T from Washington, DC area, CC BY 2.0 <https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/2.0>, via Wikimedia Commons<\/p><\/div>\n
MLB Commissioners\u00a0 Rob Manfred’s comments about the possible inaccuracy of David Ortiz’s 2003 PED test, MLB’s assurance that\u00a0 the 2003 “survey” test would not result in disciplinary action and the fact that Ortiz did not test positive after 2003 put Ortiz (at least in Baseball Roundtable’s view) in a different position than a number of other candidates painted by the PED brush. So, let’s look at his HOF resume.\u00a0 In 20 MLB seasons, Ortiz put up a .286-541-1,768 stat line. Career-wise, he ranks in the\u00a0 MLB top fifty (among players with a qualifying number of plate appearances) all-time in home runs(17th); RBI (23rd); doubles (623-12th); (extra-base hits-1,192-eighth); total bases (4,765-32nd); slugging percentage (.552-26th); walks (1,319-41st); and intentional walks (209-16th). Ortiz collected 2,72 base hits, hitting .300 or better in six qualifying seasons<\/p>\n
The ten-time All Star led the AL in home runs once (54 in 2006) and hit 30 or more long balls in nine campaigns; led in RBI twice and topped 100 in nine seasons; led the league in total bases once; and on-base and slugging percentage once each.\u00a0 Ortiz played in 85 post-season games (.289-17-61) and was the MVP of the 2004 AL Championship Series and 2013 World Series).\u00a0 With the Red Sox, he built a reputation as a team leader, clutch hitter and ambassador for baseball and Boston.<\/p>\n
In his final season as a player (2016), the 40-year-old David Ortiz hit .315, with 38 home runs and league-leading 127 RBI. He led MLB in doubles (48); extra-base hits (87); and slugging percentage at .620.<\/strong><\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n
Ortiz played for\u00a0 played for the Twins\u00a0 (1997-2002) and Red Sox (2003-2016).<\/p>\n
David<\/strong> Ortiz’ Best Season:<\/strong> With the Red Sox in 2006, Ortiz hit .287, leading the league in home runs (54); RBI (137); walks (119); and total bases (355). He also scored 115 runs that campaign.<\/p>\n
Ortiz has the numbers to earn a place in the HOF. Still, in his first year on the ballot, PED suspicions (whether warranted or not) and the fact that he spent the bulk of his time as a DH may work against him.\u00a0 Still, he’d gets BBRT’s vote and should eventually make the Hall (perhaps even this year).<\/p>\n
Jeff Kent – (Second Base\/Third Base\/First Base, 1992-2008) …\u00a0 Ninth year on the ballot, 32.4 percent last year.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n
![\"Kent\"](\"https:\/\/baseballroundtable.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Kent-216x300.jpg\")
<\/a>BBRT has long believed Jeff Kent is a deserving candidate, but he has not been getting much support from the writers.\u00a0 Kent holds the all-time MLB record for home runs by a second baseman (351 of his 377 career round trippers were hit while in the lineup at second base). He has a healthy .290 career batting average; his 1,518 RBI are 54th all time; and his 560 doubles 30th.\u00a0 His 984 extra base hits are 43rd<\/sup> all-time.<\/p>\nKent was a five-time All Star and the 2000 NL MVP.\u00a0 As primarily a middle infielder, he hit 20 or more home runs in 12 seasons (a high of 37 in 2007) at a time when middle infielders were not especially known for power. Kent topped 100 RBI eight times. He hit .276, with nine home runs and 23 RBI in 49 post-season games.<\/p>\n
Running with the Big Boys …<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n
Jeff Kent has more career runs batted in (1,509 in 17 seasons) than such noted Hall of Famers (who played a comparable number of seasons) as Mickey Mantle (1,508 in 18 seasons), Billy Williams (1,475 in 18 seasons), Eddie Mathews 1,453 in 17 seasons), Duke Snider (1,333 in 18 seasons) and Orlando Cepeda (1,365 in 17 seasons). Not bad for a middle infielder.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n
Kent played for the Blue Jays (1992), Mets (1992-1996), Indians (1996), Giants (1997-2002), Astros (2003-2004) and Dodgers (2005-2008).<\/p>\n
Jeff Kent\u2019s Best Season:<\/strong> With the Giants in 2000, Kent put up these stats – 159 games; 196 hits; .334 average; 33 home runs; 125 RBI; 114 runs; 12 steals. His performance earned him the NL MVP Award.<\/p>\n
Kent has the credentials, but BBRT expects the writers will keep him on the bench \u2013 a couple of Gold Gloves, at this traditionally defense-oriented position, would have really helped his case.\u00a0 In BBRT’s opinion, this is a true HOF \u201csnub.”<\/p>\n
_________<\/p>\n
Todd Helton – (First Base, 1997-2013) … Fourth year on the ballot, 44.9 percent last year.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n
![\"Helton\"](\"https:\/\/baseballroundtable.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/Helton-218x300.jpg\")
<\/a>Todd Helton moved from 16.5 percent to 29.2 percent to 44.9 percent over his first three years on the ballot. I expect he will continue to gain ground and would not be surprised to see hims climb to between 55 and 60 percent this year. Still, he is hampered by the fact that he spent his entire 17-year career with the Rockies (playing half his games in hitter-friendly Coors field).\u00a0 Helton, who put up a .316 career average, hit .345 at home and .287 on the road. Despite that home\/road split, Helton\u2019s body of work deserves HOF consideration.<\/p>\nHelton was a five-time All Star, three-time Gold Glover and four-time Silver Slugger. He hit over .300 in 12 seasons \u2013 and won the NL batting crown in 2000 with a .372 average. His 59 doubles that season are the seventh-most all-time. Helton drove in 100 or more runs in five seasons and scored in triple figures six times. His 1,335 walks (37th all-time) indicate the respect he earned at the plate.\u00a0 Helton also ranks fifth in games played at first base, second in career assists at the position, 13th in putouts and third in double plays.<\/p>\n
The Denver 400<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n
Todd Helton is one of only 18 players to reach 400 or more total bases in a season \u2013 and one of only seven players to have multiple 400+ total base campaigns. He is also the only player to collect 100 extra-base hits in two consecutive seasons (2000-2001).<\/strong><\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n
Todd Helton\u2019s Best Season:<\/strong> In 2000, Helton won the NL batting crown with a .372 average \u2013 and also led the league in base hits (216), doubles (59), RBI (147), on-base percentage (.463), slugging percentage (.698) and total bases (405).\u00a0 He also scored 138 runs and hit 42 home runs.<\/p>\n
Helton will continue to move up in support \u2013 he\u2019s just not likely to overcome the Coors Field-bias in the short-term future.\u00a0 He gets BBRT’s vote (as he has in the past).<\/p>\n
__________<\/p>\n
Omar Vizquel – (Shortstop\/Third Base, 1989-2012) … Fifth year on the ballot, 49.1 percent last year.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n
![\"Photo](\"https:\/\/baseballroundtable.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/11\/3481714971_89552fd32e_m_Omar-Vizquel.jpg\")
<\/a>Photo by Keith Allison<\/a>
![](\"https:\/\/baseballroundtable.com\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-inject\/images\/cc.png\")
<\/a><\/small><\/p><\/div>\nOmar Vizquel got off to a good start toward a HOF plaque, grabbing 37 percent support on his first-ballot year, moving up to 42.8 percent in his second year and 52.6 percent in his third year.\u00a0 His support appears to have plateaued, dropping to 49.1 percent in 2021.\u00a0 Vizquel once again earns BBRT’s vote. If he does eventually make it into the HOF it will be more with his glove (eleven Gold Gloves) than his bat.\u00a0 However, voters should be mindful of the fact that he finished his 24-season MLB career just 123 hits short of that milestone 3,000 safeties.<\/p>\n
Vizquel delivered premier defense to the Mariners (1989-1993), Indians (1994-2004), Giants (2005-2008), Rangers (2009), White Sox (2010-2011) and Blue Jays (2012). He was a three-time All Star \u2013 and put together a string of nine straight Gold Gloves at shortstop (1993-2001).<\/p>\n
Sacrificing for the Team<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n
Omar Vizquel led his league in sacrifice bunts four times.<\/strong><\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n
In the field, Vizquel has the highest career fielding percentage (.9847) among shortstops with at least 500 games at the position.\u00a0 Vizquel is also the all-time leader among shortstops in double plays (1,734), ranks third at the position for career assists and 11th in putouts. He shares the record (with Cal Ripken, Jr.) for the fewest errors by a shortstop in a season of at least 150 games played (three).<\/p>\n
On offense, Vizquel put up a serviceable .272 career average, with 80 home runs, 951 RBI and 1,445 runs scored. The 1,445 runs put him in the top 100 players all-time (83rd)<\/span>; while his 2,877 hits put him in the top 50 (44th and fourth all-time among switch-hitters). He also swiped 404 bases \u2013 topping twenty steals eight times (a high of 42 in 1999) \u2013 putting him at number-72 on the all-time list. Vizquel played in 57 post-season games, hitting .250-0-20.<\/p>\n
Omar Vizquel’s Best Season:<\/strong> In 1999, with the Indians, Vizquel hit a surprising .333, with five home runs, 66 RBI, 112 runs scored and 42 stolen bases – and, of course, won a Gold Glove at shortstop.<\/p>\n
Vizquel would get BBRT\u2019s vote, but the BBWAA likely will make him wait.\u00a0 I do feel, given this year’s ballot, he will improve on his 49.1 percent showing of a year ago.<\/p>\n
__________<\/p>\n
![\"Wagner\"](\"https:\/\/baseballroundtable.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Wagner-215x300.jpg\")
<\/a>Billy Wagner made a nice\u00a0 jump in support last year – going from 31.7 percent to 46.4 percent.\u00a0 While he could (should) continue to make progress, each incremental point will likely get harder as he moves up the ladder.\u00a0 Wagner played for the Astros (1995-2003), Phillies (2004-2005), Mets (2006-2009), Red Sox (2009) and Braves (2010). Wagner was a seven-time All Star, who amassed 422 saves (sixth all-time) in a 16-season MLB career.\u00a0 He had nine seasons of 30 or more saves; a career ERA of 2.31; 1,196 career strikeouts in 903 innings; and 47-40 won-lost record.<\/p>\n![\"Andy](\"https:\/\/baseballroundtable.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/10\/andy_pettitte-300x208.jpg\")
<\/a>![\"Abreu\"](\"https:\/\/baseballroundtable.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Abreu-217x300.jpg\")
<\/a>A solid .291 career hitter (2,470 base hits), Abreu hit .300 or better in six seasons. He hit 20 or more round trippers in 10 campaigns, stole 20 or more bases 12 times (a high of 40 in 2004), drove in 100 or more runs eight times and scored at least 100 runs eight times.\u00a0\u00a0 Abreu also walked 1,476 times \u2013 including 100 or more free passes in eight straight seasons (1999-2006).<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/baseballroundtable.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/NOward-300x242.jpg\")
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