{"id":12829,"date":"2021-03-23T11:08:58","date_gmt":"2021-03-23T16:08:58","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.baseballroundtable.com\/?p=12829"},"modified":"2021-03-23T11:08:58","modified_gmt":"2021-03-23T16:08:58","slug":"baseball-roundtable-2021-national-league-predictions-and-watch-list","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/baseballroundtable.com\/baseball-roundtable-2021-national-league-predictions-and-watch-list\/","title":{"rendered":"Baseball Roundtable 2021 National League Predictions and Watch List"},"content":{"rendered":"

We continue to close in on Opening Day \u2013 of a full major-league season.<\/em>\u00a0 With that in mind, Baseball Roundtable is presenting its 2020 \u201cWatch List\u201d \u2013 players from each team I am particularly interested in keeping an eye on in the coming season. In addition, I\u2019m sharing my pennant race predictions, as well as a list of players I think will be among the finalists for key MLB awards.\u00a0 This post focuses on the National League.\u00a0 For the American League version, click here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s start with the pennant race predictions.<\/p>\n

NL EAST<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Braves\u00a0\u00a0 \u2026 91-71<\/strong><\/p>\n

Mets \u2026 \u00a088-76 Wild Card)<\/strong><\/p>\n

Nationals \u2026 85-77<\/strong><\/p>\n

Phillies … 80-82<\/strong><\/p>\n

Marlins … 68-94<\/strong><\/p>\n

Everyone talks about the Dodgers’ potent lineup. In 2020, The Dodgers did lead the major leagues in runs scored at 349 \u2013 but the Braves were just one run (yes, one) behind. The Braves also led MLB in hits (556), were second in home runs (103 to the Dodgers\u2019 118) and second in average (.268 to the Mets\u2019 .272).\u00a0 And, they\u2019ve brought the offense back, led by: NL MVP Freddie Freeman (1B); the power and speed of Ronald Acuna, Jr. (RF); Marcell Ozuna (LF); Ozzie Albies (2B); and I could go on. The re-signing of Ozuna (.338-18-56 last season) was key \u2013 providing protection for Freeman in the middle of the lineup. The Braves\u2019 rotation will be headed by Max Fried (24-6 over the past two seasons) and 23-year-old Ian Anderson , who looked very good in his 2020 rookie campaign (3-2, 1.95 with 41 whiffs in 32 1\/3 innings).\u00a0 The Braves also brought in veterans Charlie Morton and Drew Smiley to bolster the rotation (and Mike Soroka should be back sooner rather than later).\u00a0 There\u2019s work to do in the bullpen, but the Braves should have enough to top the East.<\/p>\n

The Mets made some serious moves in the off-season, adding power-hitting, Gold Glove SS Francisco Lindor, starter Carlos Carrasco, hard-throwing reliever Trevor May, C James McCann, starter Taijuan Walker and more). They are much improved \u2013 with a lineup that also features Pete Alonso (who hit 53 home runs as a rookie in 2019) at 1B, rising star Dominic Smith in LF and the solid bat of Michael Conforto in RF.\u00a0 Carrasco (who will start the season on the IL) will join a rotation that brings back two-time Cy Young Award winner Jacob deGrom and veteran Marcus Stroman.\u00a0 The Mets should make the post-season, but do not quite have the depth of the Braves. \u00a0For the Nationals, a rotation headed by Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin is a good start<\/em> (no pun intended) \u2013 and newcomer Brad hand should hand<\/em>le the closer\u2019s role after leading the AL with 16 saves (for the Indians) in 2020. \u00a0The lineup also has some pop with RF Juan Soto (perhaps the most exciting young hitter in MLB), SS Trea Turner, new 1B Josh Bell and Kyle Schwarber (expected to rebound from 2020). Unfortunately, the Nationals are playing in a tough and competitive division. They could make the playoffs if all falls into place, but I don\u2019t see them catching the Braves. \u00a0The Phillies have a potentially strong rotation (Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler and Zach Elfin at the top, but need a big turnaround from their bullpen (tagged at a .315 pace by opponents a year ago).\u00a0 Like the Phillies, the Marlins have some interesting pieces in the rotation \u2013 Sandy Alcantara, Elieser Hernandez and Sixto Sanchez should make some noise. I\u2019m just not sure there enough offense to compete in this division.<\/p>\n

NL CENTRAL<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Brewers …\u00a0 87-75<\/strong><\/p>\n

Cardinals … 85-77<\/strong><\/p>\n

Cubs … 83-81<\/strong><\/p>\n

Reds … 77-85<\/strong><\/p>\n

Pirates … 62-100<\/strong><\/p>\n

This was a tough call, depending on how things break out (including injuries and \u201crebounds.\u2019 I could see the Cardinals or Brewers topping the Central. \u00a0I\u2019m going with the Brewers based on a better combination of offense and pitching (although that assumes a bit of a rebound from Brewers’ batters (who hit only .223 a year ago).\u00a0 The Brewers’ rotation will be headed by Brandon Woodruff, who went 3-5 a year ago, but deserved better (3.05 ERA and 11.1 whiffs versus just 2.2 walks per nine). In the two slot will be Corbin Burns – who went 4-1, 2.11 a year ago, with 13.3 strikeouts per nine. The rotation thins out after the top two, but newcomer Brett Anderson (free agent), a 12-year MLB veteran, should help. In 2021, with starters coming off a short season, the bullpen should expect to be busy \u2013 and the Brewers have one of the best relief staffs, headed by closer Josh Hader and set up man Devin Williams \u2013 who both fan about 15 batters per nine innings. On offense, the Brewers will be looking for LF Christian Yelich to return to MVP form, They\u2019ve also added Kolten Wong (free agent), whose Gold Glove skills at 2B will improve the Brewers’ defense \u2013 and also allow Keston Hiura to shift over to first base, where his bat may come back to life (Huira hit .303-19-49 in 84 games in 2019, but .212-13-32, with a league-topping 85 whiffs in 2020). The Brew Crew offense should also be boosted by the return of CF Lorenzo Cain (who opted out early in 2020).\u00a0 Newcomer (free agent) Travis Shaw at 3B can also plug in at 1B and 2B). Overall, the Brewers seem to have enough to win the Central \u2013 but it will take rebounds form the likes of Yelich, Cain and Huira, as well as continued solid performance out of the pen, to hold off the always tough Cardinals.<\/p>\n

The Cardinals, who parlayed defense and pitching into a second-place finish a year ago (St. Louis scored the third-fewest runs in all of MLB last season and still managed to finish above 500).\u00a0 In the off-season, they went out and traded for a 3B Nolan Arenado \u2013 improving both offense (Arenado is a three-time NL home run leader and two-time RBI leader) and defense (he\u2019s won eight Gold Gloves in his eight MLB seasons). There is some concern with the starting rotation, with number-two starter Kwang Hyun Kim (back) and number-three Miles Mikolas (shoulder) not guaranteed for the opening of the season. Still, there\u2019s Jack Flaherty, Adam Wainwright and Carlos Martinez \u2013 as well as a bullpen bolstered by the return of fireballer Jordan Hicks.\u00a0 One thing the Cardinals could use is more offense from their defensively gifted outfield. Last season, the three outfielders expected to get most of the 2020 garden work (Tyler O\u2019Neill, Harrison Bader and Dylan Carson) hit a combined .197). If they\u2019re in a tight race, we may see the Cardinals make a move there. The Cubs won the Central Division in 2020 and still have some championship-caliber pieces in place (we’ll get to that in a minute). What\u2019s missing for a repeat? How about Yu Darvish (trade), who was their best starter one year ago, as well as SP\u2019s Jon Lester, Tyler Chatwood and Jose Quintana (all free agency). Also missing (free agency) will be closer Jeremy Jeffress and OF Kyle Schwarber.\u00a0 Still, the rotation will be headed by veterans Kyle Hendricks, Jake Arrieta and Zach Davies \u2013 and SS Javier Baez, 1B Anthony Rizzo, 3B Kris Bryant, CF Ian Happ and C Wilson Contreras\u00a0 will be in the lineup. Some players to watch, but I don\u2019t think enough to get the Cubs to the post season. The Reds are going to miss Cy Young Award Winner Trevor Bauer, starter Anthony DeSclafani and reliever Archie Bradley. They now have Sonny Gray and Luis Castillo \u2013 both capable starters (3,70 and 3,21 ERAs in 2020, respectively) – at the top of the rotation, after that the rotation has some question marks.\u00a0 The Reds also traded away closer Raisel Iglesias (72 saves over the past three seasons), but southpaw Amir Garrett has shown steady improvement and appears ready to move into the role (2.45 ERA and 26 whiffs in 18 1\/3 inning last season).\u00a0 The Reds’ lineup has some bright spots in the power bats of 1B Joey Votto, SS Eugenia Suarez, 3B Mike Moustakas, RF Nick Castellanos and OF Jesse Winker. Still, last season, the Reds produced the National League’s third-fewest runs and that does not look to improve.\u00a0 As you might expect, there are few bright spots on a Pirates’ squad that scored the fewest runs in MLB in 2020 and gave up the NL’s sixth-most tallies \u2013 and was pretty quiet in the off-season. The offense, in fact, may have regressed with the trade of Josh Bell and the pitching took a step back with the trades of starters Jameson Taillon and Joe Musgrove. The Pirates will be looking for some offense from 2B Adam Frazier and young 3B Ke\u2019Bryan Hayes.\u00a0 An inexperienced Pirates’ pitching staff looks to be led by Mitch Keller (1-1, 2.91 last season, but with only 16 MLB starts under his belt, and \u201cveteran\u201d 28-year-old Steve Brault (12-15, 4.68 over five MLB seasons \u2026 45 career starts).<\/p>\n

NL WEST<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Dodgers … 103-59<\/strong><\/p>\n

Padres … 96-66 (Wild Card)<\/strong><\/p>\n

Diamondbacks …\u00a0 77-85<\/strong><\/p>\n

Giants … 74-88<\/strong><\/p>\n

Rockies … 63-99<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Dodgers, in 2020, won the most games in MLB (43-17), scored the most runs (349) hit the most home runs (118), gave up the second-fewest runs (213) and had the lowest earned run average (3.02).\u00a0 \u00a0And, they pretty much brought the whole squad back for 2021.\u00a0 Then, to top if off, they added 2020 National League Cy Young Award Winner Trevor Bauer to the rotation.\u00a0 The 2021 Dodgers sport a rotation with three former Cy Young Award winners (Trevor Bauer, Clayton Kershaw and David Price), a solid bullpen and a lineup featuring lots of star power (RF Mookie Betts, CF Cody Bellinger, 1B Max Muncy, SS Corey Seager) and no real “holes.”\u00a0 The Dodgers have finished first in the NL West for eight consecutive seasons.\u00a0The streak should continue.<\/p>\n

Who can challenge the Dodgers in the West?\u00a0 If anybody, it\u2019s the much-improved San Diego Padres. The Padres had the third-best record in MLB in 2020, have solid lineup (including what many say is MLB\u2019s best infield \u2013 emerging star Fernando Tatis, Jr. at SS, four-time All Star Manny Machado at 3B, four-time Gold Glover Eric Hosmer at first base, and switch-hitting Jake Cronenworth, who hit .285 as a 2020 rookie, at second.\u00a0 Saving the best for last, the Padres added a pair of Cy Young Award candidates\u2013 Blake Snell and Yu Darvish \u2013 to the rotation (through trades). \u00a0They should challenge the Dodgers and capture a Wild Card spot. The Diamondbacks, Giants and Rockies are in \u2013 or should be in \u2013 rebuilding mode.\u00a0 I give the Diamondbacks an edge in the race for third place.\u00a0 Not a lot of star power there, but they have more balance than Colorado or San Francisco.\u00a0 If Madison Bumgarner bounces back from a dismal 2020, they could have a solid top of the rotation with Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly.\u00a0 RF Kole Calhoun provides 30-homer power (but not much average), while LF David Peralta, CF Ketel Marte and 1B Christian Walker are steady performers at the plate.\u00a0 Then there is SS Nick Ahmed \u2018s Gold Glove skills at SS. Questions remain in the bullpen.\u00a0 The Giants, Although they are aging a bit, have solid hitters in their lineup, led by rising star Mike Yastrzemski and a couple of \u201cBrandons\u201d with power (1B Belt\/SS Crawford). The question is the pitching.\u00a0 There\u2019s not enough there to catch the pitching-rich Dodgers and Padres. With Kevin Gausman at the top of the rotation and some rebound by the likes of Johnny Cueto and Anthony DeSclafani, there might be enough for the Giants to catch the Diamondbacks, but I\u2019m betting against it.\u00a0 The Rockies without Nolan Arenado \u2013 just doesn\u2019t seem right, does it? They do have some interesting pieces; German Marquez and Antonio Senzatela at the top of the rotation and the reborn Daniel Bard at closer \u2013 as well as Trevor Story at SS, Charlie Blackmon in RF and newcomer C.J. Cron at 1B.\u00a0 Still, the pitching and power pools in Colorado seem a bit shallow to compete in the NL West \u2013 particularly the bullpen, which put up a 6.77 earned run average.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Now, let’s move on to\u00a0 BBRT\u2019s Team-by-Team National League Watch List.<\/p>\n

\n

——Baseball Roundtable 2021 National League Watch List ——<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Arizona Diamondbacks \u2013 Nick Ahmed, Zac Gallen<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\"Zac<\/a>

Zac Gallen – Poised for a breakout season.<\/p><\/div>\n

It will be nice to see a full-campaign of Nick Ahmed at shortstop.\u00a0 Ahmed was a Gold Glover in 2018 and 2019. Although he doesn\u2019t deliver average, his bat should be good for 15 home runs; AND he will certainly flash plenty of leather.\u00a0 Another bright spot worth watching in Arizona is 25-year-old right-handed starter Zac Gallen \u2013 who seems poised for a breakout season. He has a moving fastball, as well as a change, curveball and cutter. In two MLB seasons (2019-20), he is 6-8 in 27 starts \u2026 but has a nifty 2.78 earned run average and 178 strikeouts in 152 innings. In 2020, Gallen was 3-2, 2.75, which included six \u201cno decisions\u201d in which he went at least six innings and gave up two or fewer runs.<\/p>\n

How About a Little Help from My Friends?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

After eight starts in 2020, Zac Gallen had just one win (1-0), despite a 1.80 ERA, a .182 batting average against and 54 strikeouts in 50 innings.<\/strong><\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Atlanta Braves \u2013 Max Fried, Ronald Acuna, Jr.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\"Ronald<\/a>

Ronald Acuna, Jr. – Next 40-40 player?<\/p><\/div>\n

There are a couple of players, BBRT will watch here. The first is right-handed starter Max Fried \u2013 to see if he can continue to translate his curveball into top of the rotation results.\u00a0 In 2010, Fried went 7-0, 2.25 in eleven starts and gave up just two home runs in 56 innings.\u00a0 This follows up a 2019 season in which he went 17-6, 4.02 (but did give up 21 long balls in 165 2\/3 innings).\u00a0 BBRT will be watching to see if Fried continues to rack up wins \u2013 and, whether he continues to keep the ball in the park like he did in 2020.\u00a0 Just 27-years-old, he may be entering his prime.\u00a0 BBRT will also be watching one of MLB\u2019s true rising stars – 23-year-old Ronald Acuna, Jr. \u2013 who came just three stolen bases shy of a 40-40 season in 2019 (.280-41-101, with a NL-topping 37 steals).\u00a0 In 2020\u2019s short campaign, his average dropped to .250, but he did put up 14 home runs and eight steals in 45 games. He\u2019s got the potential to be the major league\u2019s next 40-40 player.<\/p>\n

A Nice Walk in the Park<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

The Braves tied the Reds for the most walks (received) in the National League (239) in 2020. Three Braves were among the league\u2019s top six in walks \u2013 Freddie Freeman (third with 45); Marcell Osuna and Ronald Acuna, Jr. (tied for sixth with 38). Bryce Harper of the Phillies led the league with 49 free passes.<\/strong><\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Chicago Cubs … Javier Baez, Kyle Hendricks<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\"Javier

Javier Baez – Could be best of the Cubs. Photo by Minda Haas Kuhlmann<\/a> <\/a><\/small><\/p><\/div>\n

Javier Baez is the player to watch on this Cubs\u2019 squad. The Cubs shortstop slumped at the plate last year, but still came home with a God Glove. Keep in mind that he was an All Star in 2018 and 2019, when he hit a combined .286-63-196.\u00a0 (He hit just .203-8-24 in 2020). Baez should bounce back and be the most exciting player in the Cubbies’ lineup. Kyle Hendricks\u00a0 doesn\u2019t throw hard, but he pitches smart.\u00a0 Last season he was 6-5, but put up a nifty 2.81 ERA in 12 starts. He struck out\u00a0 7.1 batters per nine innings, but walked less than one (0.9 per nine frames). If you like to watch a pitcher “pitch,” Hendricks could be your guy. His four-seamer tops out at about 88 mph, but he has good command of that middle-of-the-road fastball, as well as of a sinker, change and curve.<\/p>\n

Gone, but Not Forgotten<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Yu Darvish, Tyler Chatwood, Jon Lester, Jeremy Jeffress \u2013 all Cubs a year ago, all with other teams in 2021 \u2013 recorded 17 of the Cubs 34 wins in 2020 and eight of the teams 16 saves.<\/strong><\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Cincinnati Reds \u2013 Tyler Mahle, Nick Lodolo<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\"Tyler<\/a>

Tyler Mahle – Slider made a difference.<\/p><\/div>\n

Twenty-six-year-old righty starter Tyler Mahle added a slider to his repertoire last season (to go with a mid-90s fastball, splitter and change).\u00a0 The addition seemed to work.\u00a0 He went from 3-12, 5.14 in 2019 to 2-2, 3.59 in 2020 (with 60 strikeouts in 47 2\/3 innings). BBRT will be interested in: 1) Seeing if hitters catch up to the new pitch mix; and 2) If Mahle can improve his command (he walked four batters per nine innings a year ago).\u00a0 \u00a0 I\u2019ll also be watching to see if the Reds’ 2019 top draft pick, southpaw pitcher Nick Lodolo is called up \u2013 or if he ever walks anyone.\u00a0 In his lone minor-league season (2019), Lodolo pitched 18 1\/3 innings, fanning 30 and walking none. Who knows, if the Reds fade early, the 23-year-old could see some major-league action.\u00a0 Besides, a pitcher with three “O’s” in his name is a find.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

One For “Ever”<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

In 2020, Trevor Bauer became the first member of the Reds to win the National League Cy Young Award.<\/strong><\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Colorado Rockies \u2013 Daniel Bard, Trevor Story<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\"Daniel<\/a>

Daniel Bard – Great comeback story.<\/p><\/div>\n

The Colorado Rockies without the leather and lumber of Nolan Arenado to watch.\u00a0 It just doesn\u2019t seem right. When I watch the Rockies, I\u2019ll have to get one of those \u201cOld Guys Rule\u201d hats.\u00a0 Number-one on my Rox watch list is\u00a0 35-year-old closer Daniel Bard.\u00a0 Why my interest? \u00a0Bard first made it the majors in 2009 and was a serviceable reliever over his first three seasons (5-13, but with a 2.88 earned average and 213 whiffs in 197 innings).\u00a0 Then, in 2012, the Red Sox decided to make him a starter \u2013 and the wheels came off. In his first 11 appearances of the season, he pitched 55 innings (5.24 ERA), walking 37, hitting eight batters and striking out 34. He was sent down to the minors in June, where he continued to struggle.\u00a0 Bard came back up, in a relief role, in August and still could not find the plate (six more appearances, 4 1\/3 innings, 18.69 ERA, six walks and four whiffs). To make a long story short, Bard pitched only one MLB inning in 2013 \u2013 and pitched in the minors until he retired as a player after the 2017 season.\u00a0 Then came the short 2020 season \u2013 and opportunity.\u00a0 He threw for Rockies\u2019 scouts, was signed for 2020 and, after a seven-year absence, was back on a major-league mound picking up a win (1 1\/3 scoreless innings in relief) on July 25. He went on to win the closer\u2019s job, going 4-2, 3.65, with six saves in six opportunities \u2013 using a mid-90s fastball, a wicked slider and a change.\u00a0 BBRT will be watching to see if this comeback tale continues.<\/p>\n

I\u2019ll also keep an eye on Trevor Story, the Rox power hitting shortstop \u2013 a threat to put up a 30 (HR)\/ 30 (SB) season. In 2020, Story went .289-11-28 and led the NL in triples (4) and steals (15), I\u2019ll be watching both Story\u2019s storied performance, and whether the trade rumor that continue to swirl around him become reality.<\/p>\n

High Mountain Irony<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

In 2020, the Rockies had the National League’s highest earned run average (5.59), Yet the Rox starters recorded 28 quality starts, second in the NL only to the Cubs 30.<\/strong><\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Los Angeles Dodgers \u2013 The Dodgers’ Rotation, Mookie Betts<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\"Clayton<\/a>

Clayton Kershaw – Three-time CYA winner part of Dodgers’ vaunted rotation. Photo by SD Dirk<\/a> <\/a><\/small><\/p><\/div>\n

The Dodger rotation had the NL\u2019s lowest starters\u2019 ERA in 2020 (3.29). Not only did the principals return, the Dodgers added the 2020 NL Cy Young Award winner to boot. So, who do you watch?\u00a0 How about the entire starting rotation \u2013 which should include three former Cy Young Award winners: Clayton Kershaw, newcomer Trevor Bauer and David Price, as well as Walker Buehler (14-4, 3.26 in 2019) and probably Dustin May (3-1, 2.57) or Julio Arias (3-0, 3.27 a year ago). The most interesting to watch may be 2012 CYA winner Price, who opted out of the 2020 season. In his most recent season (2019), Price missed time with elbow tendinitis and wrist issues.\u00a0\u00a0 If you prefer to watch a position player, I\u2019d go with RF Mookie Betts \u2013 who does it all \u2013 a .301 average over seven seasons, a good bet(ts) for 30 home runs, 80+ RBI and 20 stolen bases. (He\u2019s also a five-time Gold Glover.)\u00a0 Prefer to watch prospects? you may get a chance to see Baseball America\u2019s 2019 Minor League Player of the Year Gavin Lux (.347-26-76 in 113 games at Double A and Triple A).\u00a0 Note: Lux has been over-matched in two call ups to the Dodgers, but he\u2019s just 23 \u2013 and we\u2019ll be seeing him again.<\/p>\n

Lots of No-Doubters<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

The Dodgers had MLB\u2019s largest positive run differential in 2020 \u2013 outscoring opponents by 171 runs. The next best? The Padres and Braves at a plus 73.<\/strong><\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Miami Marlins \u2013 Jon Berti, Sixto Sanchez<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\"Sixto<\/a>

Sixto Sanchez – Young Pedro Martinez?<\/p><\/div>\n

Jon Berti tops BBRT\u2019s Marlins\u2019 watch list.\u00a0 Berti started 35 games last season: 17 at second base; seven in centerfield, seven in right field; two at third base and two at shortstop. I\u2019ll be anxious to see what the Marlins have in mind for this speedster (he\u2019s stolen 27 bases in 116 MLB games over three seasons). Young (22-years-old) right-hander Sixto Sanchez has drawn comparisons to a young Pedro Martinez. He brings a fastball that can reach triple digits, a hard (and moving) change and a plus breaking ball. In his 2019 rookie season, he went 3-2, 3.46 and fanned 33 in 39 innings. (Look for that whiff rate to go up as he develops).<\/p>\n

Start ‘Em Young<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

In five minor league seasons, Sixto Sanchez has gone 23-18, 2.58 with 294 strikeouts in 335 1\/3 innings. The amazing thing is, he had five minor-league seasons under hit belt by age 21.\u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Milwaukee Brewers\u2013 Josh Hader & Devon Williams, Christian Yelich<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\"Christian<\/a>

Christian Yelich – Brewers need a rebound from 2018 MVP. Photo by IDSportsPhoto<\/a> <\/a><\/small><\/p><\/div>\n

If you like to see fireballers come out of the pen and dampen rallies, join BBRT in watching Brewers\u2019 front line relievers \u2013 closer Josh Hader and 2020 NL Rookie of the Year Devon Williams.\u00a0 In 2020, Hader led the NL in saves with 13 \u2013 going 1-2, 3.79 and fanning 31 batters in 19 innings. In four MLB seasons, he has a 2.54 ERA and has fanned 15.3 batter per nine frames.\u00a0 That\u2019s “lights out.” Rookie of the Year William worked in 22 games this past year \u2013 going 4-1, with a minuscule 0.33 (yes, that’s a zero in front of<\/em><\/strong> the decimal point) earned run average. Not only that, he fanned 53 batter in 27 innings – 14.8 per nine. I\u2019ll also be watching Christian Yelich, who came to the Brewers from the Marlins (trade) in 2017 and immensely was the 2018 NL Most Valuable Player (.326-36-110) and then followed by finishing second in the 2019 MVP voting (.329-44-97), wining the batting title both years. Yelich slumped to .205 in 2020\u2019s short and strange season, but I expect he\u2019ll return to something closer to .300-30-100, with 15 steals in 2021 \u2013 giving the Brewers quite a boost.<\/p>\n

Backing In<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

In 2020, the Brewers and the Astros (both at 29-31) became the first two MLB teams ever to make the playoffs with losing records.<\/strong><\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

New York Mets \u2013 Jacob deGrom, Francisco Lindor, Dominic Smith, Pete Alonso<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\"Francisco<\/a>

Francisco Lindor – New force in Mets’ lineup.Photo by Keith Allison<\/a> <\/a><\/small><\/p><\/div>\n

Lots of new faces (via trade and free agency) to watch in New York (SS Francisco Lindor, RHP Carlos Carrasco, C James McCann, RHP Trevor May \u2013 to name a few), BBRT starts its watch list with holdover Jacob deGrom \u2013 a two-time Cy Young Award winner and arguably the best pitcher in the National League. I\u2019d like to see what he could do with a little better run support. (Over the past three seasons, deGrom has a 2.10 ERA and has fanned 628 batters in 489 innings. Yet, he\u2019s only six games above. 500, at 25-19.) BBRT wants to watch him work and win. I\u2019ll also be watching to see what newcomer Francisco Lindor means to the Mets\u2019 lineup (and, of course, deGrom’s W-L line). The 27-year-old, four-time All Star brings a powerful bat and a pair of Gold Gloves to the Mets. And, he stays in the lineup \u2013 missing only 31 games in the past five seasons. Look for .280-30-100. BBRT is also interested in the continued development of outfielder Dominic Smith.\u00a0 Smith (26-years-old) was .316-10-42 in 50 games a year ago. Then there\u2019s 1B Pete Alonso, who hit 53 home runs as a 24-year-old rookie in 2019 and 16 in 2019\u2019s short season (which translated to 43 in a 162-game slate). Lots t see in The Big Apple.<\/p>\n

Why Stop at First?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Of Dominic Smith\u2019s 56 hits in 2020, 32 were for extra bases (21 doubles, one triple, ten home runs). His .616 slugging percentage was tops on the Mets and fourth in the National League.<\/strong><\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Philadelphia Phillies \u2013 Spencer Howard, Bryce Harper<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\"Spencer<\/a>

Spencer Howard – Phillies’ mound prospect.<\/p><\/div>\n

BBRT\u2019s Philadelphia watch list is topped by 24-year-old prospect Spencer Howard. Just 1-2, 5.92 (with shoulder issues) a year ago, he\u2019s shown swing-and-miss stuff in the minors. In three minor-league seasons, he\u2019s gone 13-10, 2.23 \u2013 but, more important, has averaged 12 strikeouts per nine innings (281 whiffs in 211 1\/3 frames). I might also keep an eye on Bryce Harper, who is capable of an MVP-worthy season when he puts it all together. (In 2015, he was .330-42-99).) \u00a0We haven\u2019t heard a lot about Harper recently, but it\u2019s clear he gets plenty of respect at the plate.\u00a0 He led the NL in walks last season (49) and has three times topped 100 free passes in a campaign. Hard to believe Harper \u2013 just 28-years-old, is entering his tenth MLB seasons.<\/p>\n

Should I Make that Call?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

The Phillies bullpen ERA of 7.06 was the highest in the majors.<\/strong><\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

 <\/p>\n

Pittsburgh Pirates \u2013 Ke\u2019Bryan Hayes<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\"HaYES\"<\/a>BBRT will be watching Pirates’ 23-year-old third baseman Ke\u2019Bryan Hayes \u2013 a leading NL Rookie of the Year candidate (who hit .376-5-11 in 25 games in 2020). In five minor-league seasons, Hayes has hit .279-25-202, with 66 steals in 461 games.\u00a0 The Pirates expect good things from Hayes \u2013 also a potential Gold Glover – who is having a great spring.<\/p>\n

Nice Numbers, Kid<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

In 2020, Ke\u2019Bryan Hayes hit .314 with two strikes, .308 with two outs, and .364 with runners in scoring position.<\/strong><\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Saint Luis Cardinals \u2013 Nolan Arenado, Dylan Carson<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\"Nolan<\/a>

Nolan Arenado – Bringing lumber AND leather to St. Louis. Photo by jenniferlinneaphotography<\/a> <\/a><\/small><\/p><\/div>\n

Newcomer Nolan Arenado\u2019s combination of leather and lumber is well worth a watch in St.Louis.\u00a0 In eight seasons with the Rockies\u2019, Arenado has won eight Gold Gloves and hit 235 home runs (five seasons of at least 37 round rippers and five seasons of 110 or more RBI.). It will be interesting to see what the move from Colorado will mean at the plate.\u00a0 (Arenado was .322-136-461 at home and .263-99-299 away). Last season, the three outfielders expected to patrol the green in Saint Louis hit a combined .197-14-53 (playing in a combined 135 \u2013 of a potential 180 \u2013 games).\u00a0 The Redbirds need more offense from the outfield and the best bet is number-one prospect 22-year-old Dylan Carson. In 2019, splitting time between Double-A and Triple-A, Carson hit .292, with 26 home runs and 68 RBI, 95 runs scored and 20 steals in 126 games.\u00a0 Last season, Carson started slow (.162-1-5 in is first 23 games), was sent down to the alternative site for some work and came back to go .278-12-11 in his last dozen games. BBRT will be looking to see which Carson shows up in 2021.<\/p>\n

Oops! Two that Got Away<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

It\u2019s a bit ironic that the Cardinals are in need of some outfield offense, In January of 2020, they traded OF Randy Arozarena and OF\/1B Jose Martinez to the Tampa Bay Rays for minor-league pitching prospects Matthew Liberatore and Edgardo Rodriguez and a supplemental second round draft choice. Arozarena went on to a .281-7-11 in 23 games for the Rays and then burned up the post season with a .377-10-14 line in 20 games (setting a record for the most home runs in a single post season.) Arozarena would look pretty good in a Redbirds’ uniform right now.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

The Cardinals also let Of Marcell Ozuna slip away (via free agency) after the 2019 season.\u00a0 All he did in 2020 was lead the National League in home runs (18) and RBI (56), while hitting .338.<\/strong><\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

San Diego Padres \u2013 Blake Snell, Yu Darvish, Fernando Tatis, Jr.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\"Fernando<\/a>

Fernando Tatis, Jr. – On everybody’s watch list. Photo by KA Sports Photos<\/a> <\/a><\/small><\/p><\/div>\n

Now, here\u2019s a TEAM<\/strong><\/em> to watch in 2021.\u00a0 The Padres made it clear they are focused on the post season \u2013 and a couple of off-season trades brought in a pair of very \u201cwatchable\u201d starters – both potential Cy Young Award candidates.\u00a0 BBRT will be watching to see the impact of Blake Snell and Yu Darvish on the balance in the West.\u00a0 Snell won the AL CYA in 2018, with a 21-5, 1.89 record. Darvish has twice finished second in Cy Young voting (2013 and 2020). \u00a0\u00a0Last season, Darvish went 8-3, 2.01 and fanned 93 hitters in 76 innings.\u00a0 BBRT will also \u2013 along with most fans \u2013 be watching the development of SS Fernando Tatis, Jr.\u00a0 The 22-year-old seems like more than a rising star \u2013 perhaps a comet. In his first 143 MLB games, he\u2019s hit .301, with 39 home runs, 98 RBI and 27 steals.\u00a0 Can\u2019t wait to see what he can do in a full season.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Slamming \u201cAround the Horn\u201d<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

The Padres set an MLB record in 2020 by hitting Grand Slams in four straight games (and five in a streak of six games). On August 17, it was SS Fernando Tatis, Jr.; on August 18, RF Wil Myers; on August 19, 3B Manny Machado; on August 20, 1B Eric Hosmer. After the Padres went without a Grand Slam on August 21, 2B Jake Cronenworth hit a four-run dinger on August 22.\u00a0 So, the infield went around the horn in Grand Slams in six days.\u00a0 Tatis\u2019 Slam seems like a \u201cchip off the old block.” His dad, Fernando Tatis, Sr., is the only MLB player to ever hit two Grand Slams in one inning (April 23, 199).<\/strong><\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

San Francisco Giants \u2013 Mike Yastrzemski, Alex Dickerson<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\"Mike<\/a>

Mike Yastrzemski – Pretty good genes.
Photo by IDSportsPhoto<\/a> <\/a><\/small><\/p><\/div>\n

Lots of familiar names to watch in MLB this year (Biggio, Guerrero, Tatis, Bichette), you get the idea.\u00a0 In San Francisco, it\u2019s Yastrzemski.\u00a0 RF Mike Yastrzemski was arguably the Giants\u2019 best player on 2020, when he hit .297, with 14 doubles, four triples, 10 home runs and 35 RBI. He should be fun to watch in 2021. (In his first 161 MLB games \u2013 2019-20 \u2013 the new \u201cYaz\u201d has gone .297-31-90.)\u00a0 I also may check in on OF Alex Dickerson, who came over from the Padres in a 2019 trade. He may be finding his stride. While he has a .273 career MLB average (four seasons), in 108 games since joining the Giants, he has hit .294, with 16 home runs and 53 RBI.<\/p>\n

Is Thirty the new 25? Maybe in San Francisco<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

When you look at the Giants’\u00a0<\/span><\/strong>projected Opening Day lineup (assuming Kevin Gausman gets the start on the mound), only CF Mauricio Dubon is under 30 (the lineup averages just shy of 32 years of age).<\/span><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Washington Nationals \u2013 Juan Soto, Stephen Strasburg<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\"Juan<\/a>

Juan Soto – Best of the Nationals.
SotoPhoto by pdeonarain<\/a> <\/a><\/small><\/p><\/div>\n

Juan Soto. Juan Soto. Juan Soto.\u00a0 The top three players on BBRT\u2019s Nationals\u2019 watch list. Just 22-years-old, Soto already has a NL batting championship on his resume (.351 in 2020), as well as a 30+ homer, 100+ runs scored and 100+ RBI season (.282-34-110, with 110 runs scored as a 20-year-old in 2019). Just have to watch this rising\/shooting star scorch across the National League. BBRT will also be monitoring Stephen Strasburg recovering from carpel tunnel issues \u2013 double-digit winner in seven of the past nine seasons, he was 0-1, 10.80 in 2020.<\/p>\n

Say Goodbye to that One<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

In 2020, Nationals\u2019 pitchers gave up 94 home runs \u2013 the most in the National League. Nationals\u2019 hitters poked 66 long balls \u2013 tenth-highest in the league.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

—–2021 POTENTIAL NL AWARD WINNERS —–<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Here are BBRT’s favorites for key NL Player Awards.<\/p>\n

Most Valuable Player<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n